Pollster.com

Finally this poll moves in some direction :-)

This is an odd poll

FINALLY - A little movement. Welcome back GWU!

guess I can finally stop wondering if these guys actually conduct polls...it's good to see some movemnt.

More Evidence Of A Surge Among Low-Propensity Voters In Colorado

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/more_evidence_of_a_surge_among.php

Surely the most significant statistic of the day - the iceberg shifts.

@sunnymi:

More Evidence Of A Surge Among Low-Propensity Voters In Colorado

McCain has apparently had to scale back GOTV significantly in order to match Obama on TV in the closing days of the campaign. It will be interesting to see what effect this has. McCain is asking some field staff to work for free.

Why don't they count those who have already voted? (Says DNR)

Et tu, GWU? I guess Drudge can still have hope for IBD/TIPP.

it moves....It's alive

Last two GWU's were Obama +3.

It's alive! It's alive!!! Sorry :)

Any word on more state polls today?

ppp NM Obama + 17

I'm pretty sure this is the final GWU/BG poll. I noticed that they shortened the window for this tracker from 5-days to 4-days. They also don't poll Fridays or Saturdays.

Ras is releasing a ton of polls in the next 72 hours - a bunch throughout today and this weekend.

@MDB1974:

From Rasmussen today:

"Presidential polls will be released for several states throughout the day today and over the weekend. Additional Senate polling data will also be released during the day."

They don't say which states they are however.

Does this sound like a campaign worried about PA or VA?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Obama_will_advertise_in_Arizona.html?showall

"Obama to advertise in Arizona, Georgia, and North Dakota"

I understand some polls showing some tightening in Arizona but why is Obama going to advertise there? I would rather see him focus on PA,VA,FL,OH in these last few days and throw in a stop in Georgia.

RCP just listed new polls: PPP - New Mexico as Obama +17 and New Hampshire as Obama +9 (SV).

@Angus Mc:

I assume they will poll on Sunday night. Dunno, though. You would think they would put a statement out about it.

@SoloBJ:

Maybe their internals show them all even better... maybe it's a feint to have the RNC/McCain camp think their internals show them better to get them to toss more funds in there...

Could be to push the congressional races in AZ and GA up - as well as help Martin in the GA Senate race ...

Could be any number of factors

Az - It's political jujitsu.

Early Voting

Gallup's latest update -- based on interviewing conducted through Wednesday, Oct. 29 -- shows that 21% of registered voters who plan to vote say they have already voted early or by absentee ballot. This percentage has been increasing steadily over the last two weeks. Another 12% of registered voters say they still plan on voting early, leaving about two-thirds of those who plan on voting who indicate they will actually vote on Election Day itself, next Tuesday.

These early voters are more likely to say they have voted for Barack Obama than for John McCain, by a 55% to 40% margin. Among those who plan to vote on Election Day, the spread is much closer -- only a 48% to 45% Obama advantage.

Obama's kicking off NY Post and WashTimes reporters from his plane: good, should have been done months ago.

Both rags printed unsubstantiated and quickly rebutted rumors about Obama's trip to Iraq -- that he attempted go behind the Bush Administration's back regarding the status of forces agreement.

FINALLY, a Democrat that recognizes that some press outlets simply don't deserve any kind of access if all they do is peddle lies, smears, and innuendo.

No, it's just Obama has so much money, he doesn't know what to do with it.

Just b/c they are advertising in three additional states, does not mean they are not concerned about VA and PA.

I can't wait for election night...Will Obama crush McCain or will the so-called "silent majority" deliver the White House to McCain? For the first time in my life, I really don't care who wins or loses.

@Dewey1858:

I read about the McCain scale back as well....I am of the opinion that any improvement McCain can get over the last few days and on the day of the election has to come from undecideds breaking in his favor by a big margin....he cannot improve his poll numbers through GOTV since he never had any in most of the battleground states barring FL.

" will the so-called "silent majority" deliver the White House to McCain?"

What silent majority? Every body have been screaming their lungs out? Silent majority is one of those political myths that both cons and libs try to propagate when suits them...

@pbcrunch

Where did you read that about the NYPost and WaTimes?

@Batony

Obviously, he has spent his money wisely this whole election ... He beat the biggest political juggernaught of modern era - the Clinton machine (close second would be Bush/Rove) and is showing better RCP averages than Bush did in 2004. Also, showing huge leads in every pollster's (and ever analyst's) EV map.

@political_junki

Amen about the "silent majority" ... it should be put in the pantry right next to the "Bradley Effect"

I think Obama's going to AZ is to help the local congressional races; Obama has a snowball's chance in the desert of AZ during high noon on a summer day to take that state.

A strong Dem push can shift the AZ House delegation to the Dems, pushing off Shadegg (a major conservative leader who holds McCain's old seat) in the process.

Any margin below +10 will be an embarrassment for McCain, especially if a couple House districts fall.

It's all about the West.. As Jim Morrison said.. "The West is the best.. get here, and we'll do the rest."

Obama swings through NV, CO, NM, and yes, AZ on Monday. McCain has basically pulled most of his advertising from those states. (but will come back to AZ to avoid total humiliation). Two wacky polls from NM last night, one tied, one at O+17. Both are a little off, obviously. Obama will take NM by a solid 8 or 9.. if not more. Nevada will be close.. but I think a good 5 or 6 point cushion will hold through Tuesday. I don't see how McCain comes back in CO when Obama is dominating the airwaves and the ground game there.

3 Western states + IA, and the rest is meaningless, unless McCain somehow flips PA, AND holds the rest of the remaining 2004 red states. (NC, OH, FL, GA, MO, IN, etc.)

@Thatcher:

It's in pollster.com's sidebar. WARNING: links to a Drudge article.

@pbcrunch -

unless something remarkable happens - I don't think Lord is going to surpass Shadegg. I've been doing direct mail universes down in AZ and it's a bit of a tough nut for that district. Mitchell and Giffords should be fine down there - but I think when all is said and done - it will be 2 Dems - 2 Reps.

"3 Western states + IA, and the rest is meaningless, unless McCain somehow flips PA, AND holds the rest of the remaining 2004 red states. (NC, OH, FL, GA, MO, IN, etc.)"

Even then Obama will win by winning VA. Exactly 270! Sweet :)
3 Western states + IA - PA + VA = 270

@pbcrunch:
@Thatcher:

It's in pollster.com's sidebar. WARNING: links to a Drudge article.

A bit late with the warning, I just sat back down after rinsing my eyeballs.

@Thatcher:

This is why I can't support Obama. I'm not supporting McCain either, but this is why I can't support Obama...two words: THE MEDIA. So sure he defeated Hillary, but he had a lot of help from his friends in the media.

If they had been just a little bit more balanced in the primaries or general...then I probably could hop on the bandwagon and celebrate the 1st biracial President, but the coverage he has gotten has really been a disgrace. I understand afraid of being called a racist, but this is just ridiculous.

@politicaljunki:

I don't know who the "silent majority" is..but all I keep hearing is that they will show up on election day.

@pbcrunch

(of course I mean in the 4 races that "appeared" competitive)

From Drudge:

"The NY POST, WASHINGTON TIMES and DALLAS MORNING NEWS have all been told to move out by Sunday to make room for network bigwigs -- and possibly for the inclusion of reporters from two black magazines, ESSENCE and JET, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned. "

Wow.. way not to be subtle with the race-baiting there Ms. Fudge.

I could use a good PA poll as a pick-me-up. Morning Call at O+10 this morning has me squirming a little. If O himself is campaiging in the other direction, he may indeed have a spine of steel.

@ Batony

if you dont vote for Obama because of the MEDIA it would be a shame. Maybe you dont agree with all of his policies but dont you think its just worth a try ? Can it be much worse than the last 8 years ? Give him a chance and evaluate in 2012 again. I really dont think you can blame Obama for the way the Media reported this race.

these guys are already trying to set up an understanding with the media that if you dont offer consistant favorable press you arent going to be welcome near the president. they did this with those stations in florida and pennsylvania for asking biden "tough questions" and now they are doing it with major newspapers who endorsed mccain. what class.

Every single national poll shows an Obama lead greater than the margin of error and have for three weeks now.

Funny story on Politico that highlights the state of the race:

"Poll: Dead heats in 2 key swing states"

The 2 states mentioned are MO and NC. I don't believe NC was ever really considered a key swing state, more just icing for Obama.

@Batony

We all know who the "silent majority" is supposed to be. It's just another euphemism for the actions of some who cannot "free their mind".

@ Northeastern Republican:

The difference between Obama and McCain is that Obama has always allowed these outfits on his plane even though they routinely bash him. McCain kicked all the unfriendly reporters off his plane a long time ago, like Joe Klein and Maureen Dowd.

@Northeastern Republican:
these guys are already trying to set up an understanding with the media that if you dont offer consistant favorable press you arent going to be welcome near the president. they did this with those stations in florida and pennsylvania for asking biden "tough questions" and now they are doing it with major newspapers who endorsed mccain. what class.

How do you know he doesn't just want free subscriptions to Jet and Essence?

Et tu Battleground?

Looks like all of the polls are converging on

50-52 O

44-46 M

@Dewey1858,
Yesterday he was at +13 in that poll. So that is -3 in 24 hrs. Then, the two polls showing him only up +4-5 points in PA. McCain/Palin are making 2-3 more stops in PA over the next 4 days. Doesn't seem Obama is too worried as I don't see PA on his upcoming campaign trail list but I'm a bit concerned...

Get this guys:

"Obama going up on TV in AZ, ND and GA"

Obama manager David Plouffe opens up a media conference call with the announcement that they're going on TV in three deep red states: Arizona, North Dakota, and Georgia.

SoloBJ,

I think that you pay attention the the spread, you know +5, +3, +10 etc,. I don't do it that way because I think it is a HUGE mistake. I pay attention to the level of support of each candidate. To me is not the # that McCain reaches but the # that Obama keeps. Even McCain people think that it is key for Obama to stay above 50% because the majority of those undecided will, in my opinion, go for McCain.

*Again just my opinion, and I could be wrong. To me level of support is a much stronger indication than spread :-)

@SoloBJ:
@Dewey1858,
Yesterday he was at +13 in that poll. So that is -3 in 24 hrs. Then, the two polls showing him only up +4-5 points in PA. McCain/Palin are making 2-3 more stops in PA over the next 4 days. Doesn't seem Obama is too worried as I don't see PA on his upcoming campaign trail list but I'm a bit concerned...

Thanks for making me feel better ...

Anyone have numbers of link to PA Morning Call Poll?

I believe Obama feels safe in PA or in fact he knows he doesn't need it; FLorida anyone!

You guys should go take a look at the "URGENT" news on FOXNEWS.COM

Their primary source for the "urgent news" is Drudge!

@Mike A.:
Anyone have numbers of link to PA Morning Call Poll?

I took this morning's number of the website. I got numbers for previous days by clicking the link at RCP. Maybe there's a better way ...

I believe Morning call is +10 (O-53 M-43) which would suggest McCain had a very good night.

@ NERepub

If they only have so much room on the plane, who do you think they should kick-off? Besides, they still get a free ride until Sunday. :)

Let's get a list of who is on McCain's 'straight talk" express before we compare lists.

@hou04:
You guys should go take a look at the "URGENT" news on FOXNEWS.COM

Their primary source for the "urgent news" is Drudge!

I'm sorry, but I'm not up for rinsing my eyeballs again this soon.

Early voting numbers from NC as of 10:00 pm Oct 30:
2,076,990 early voters (33.33% of registered voters)
1,092,278 Dems (52.59%)
614,768 Repubs (29.60%)
369,054 Inds (17.77%)

In 24 hours of early voting the NC SBOE logged in 229,000 voters, or 3.65% of registered voters.
The SBOE website lags a bit, but it is probable that at least an additional 450-500,000 voters will early vote on Friday and Saturday. It is possible that when early voting concludes as many as 3,000,000 (or 50% of) voters in NC will have already voted.

On the ground Dems continue to marginally increase their advantage in voter registration. Early onestop voting in NC allows voters to register and vote in their county. In the last couple of days 37,000 new voters have had their registrations processed, 21,000 of them Dems, 8,000 of them Repubs. This has been going on for two weeks now ...

I can't stress enough how much, in NC, it feels like the election is happening right now, and there is a very definite enthusiasm gap.

I will post more detailed numbers about early voting in NC when there is a thread about NC polls.

"@Dewey1858,
Yesterday he was at +13 in that poll. So that is -3 in 24 hrs."

True, but in a poll with a total sample of 600 and a margin of error of about +/-4 points for each candidate. So for a single day's polling the sample is around 200 (if it's a three day poll) and the margin must be up around +/-6 points. Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't bounced around a bit more.

Oh thanks for the PA numbers! I feel good about 53 :)

A very confident David Plouffe briefed reporters this morning...

More notes from his conference call:

** In NV, 43% of Democrats who have voted early are new or sporadic voting Democrats

** In NC, 19% of Democrats who've voted early are Democrats who've never voted in a presidential election before
** Says Plouffe: "We are going much better with Hispanic voters in Florida than certainly was the case in 2004 and we believe in 2000. Puerto Rican voters, Columbian voters, and doing surprisinglky well with younger Cuban voters."

** "In Florida, a quarter of sporadic voting Democrats are turning out out that the same rate as very likely Democrats."
** Said the McCain campaign is spending 5,000 points worth of advertising in the Tampa television market.

@Vercingetorix:
"@Dewey1858,
Yesterday he was at +13 in that poll. So that is -3 in 24 hrs."

True, but in a poll with a total sample of 600 and a margin of error of about +/-4 points for each candidate. So for a single day's polling the sample is around 200 (if it's a three day poll)

I believe it's a five-day poll.

@Thatcher:

Please tell me who the "silent majority" is? Angry white people? Angry white males? Angry real Americans? WHO are they? I want to know ...

As far as bad the last 8 years have been with Bush, the sad part about it is...to me the Presidency is no big deal to me anymore. In a way I wish I would have never moved to this city (DC). Once you meet politicians and the reporters who cover them...you find out how much of a sham it all really is. I hate that b/c I was such a passionate Democrat, now I basically just roll my eyes.

FYI. The morning call data can be found here:
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/

Remember that at this point McCain NOT only needs to make up his own ground but also bring Obama down. Guys, Obama's lead in most polls has being remarkable constant in the last few weeks. I really don't see how McCain brings him down all of the sudden.

*I don't think they have anything left against Obama. I was expecting the dirtiest of the tricks yesterday morning after Obama's informercial, so they could stop Obama's momentum. The fact that they didn't come up with anything tells me that they don't have anything new.

AB where did you get those numbers from?

I have looked everywhere I normally look and I do not see that the morning call poll is out yet.

Even if Morning call says it is 10% last night it is still fine....remember it is +10 not a 3 or 4....in a state as big as PA 10 point lead is almost impossible to cut and turn around in 4 days....if you notice where McPalin are traveling in PA they are mostly in the parts where they have Republican leaning voters anyway....Obama will win PA in the Philly and its suburbs just like Rendell won the governorship by winning only 10 out of 67 counties.

Regarding Nevada, if you spend some time on the Sec of State website for Nevada you can see how dramatically the Obama campaign has been able to alter the facts on the ground there. I think about 85% of Nevada voters live in just two counties (Clark and Washoe?). There has been an enormous change in the registrations there, and in early voting Dems are overvoting the numbers, Repubs undervoting.

The new Muhlenberg isn't out yet as far as I can tell.

they are a bit different from the ones on Mcdonald's site

if u use party ID for first 2,048,050 and apply rasmussen crosstabs of yesterdays poll

Obama 55.37%
McCain 43.27%

Dana Adini:

In NC

if u use party ID for first 2,048,050 and apply rasmussen crosstabs of yesterdays poll

Obama 55.37%
McCain 43.27%

"I believe it's a five-day poll."

Yikes. So they're only interviewing 120 people a day? So the MOE on one day's results is up around +/-8 points.

On that basis I'm not much inclined to see the change as anything more than normal statistical variance. Esecially as -3 point shift in the overall spread is also well within the MOE for the poll.

@Batony

"silent majority" is a euphemism to try to attempt race-baiting and try to rally pseudo-patriots. Nixon brought up the term in his second bid. And I believe the US has matured over the last 30-40 years that it doesn't exist - if it ever did.

@maddiekat:
I have looked everywhere I normally look and I do not see that the morning call poll is out yet.

I went to the Morning Call's website and clicked on the Election 2008 link on the left of the page.

FYI.. Muhlenberg/Morning all doesn't necessaruly release a poll every day. Also, unless Dewey knows some people there personally, no idea how he got those #s before they are posted anywhere online.

@Thatcher:

Wow. Thanks Thatcher.

Palin on a bus tour through Pa. Damn you can't say they are not trying.

Can anyone tell me where the "great 72 GOP GOTV" focused on in 2004?

Dana Adini,
(I don't know how to link)
I go to www.sboe.nc.us.gov
On the front under general election absentee information click on "General Absentee Summary PDF."
Onestop is early voting at a polling location in the county you live in (about 91% of absentee voting -- Dems way of voting this year).
Civilian is traditional absentee ballots requested by mail (Repubs traditional way of early voting).
There is also Military (absentee) and Overseas (absentee) which are little numbers, but I count them in.

One thing that is great is that all early voters are categorized so you know who has been to the polls.

Also on the home page are current registration numbers.
And if you dig around there are statistics for previous elections and registration.

I get the numbers by using a calculator and a paper and pencil, takes a few minutes but I (maybe too obviously) really want to know what is actually happening.

The only place I'm seeing the 53-43 new Muhlenberg # is someone's post on some message board.

@Batony

I agree. I think Obama's bought every time slot he could in the classic battleground states (I'm including PA in this class for purposes of this post). It does no good for him to have money left on Nov. 5.

Is boomshak gone from this site? I would expect him all over these polls. Good riddance if so.

With regards to this poll, it's nice to see ANY movement after the long stretch of identical results. We are getting very close now. At this point, I can't really see any of the pollsters playing with their numbers. We're only 5 days off the election now, and I think they'll be much to concerned about their reputations to play the biased pollster game. That said, nobody really seems to know how this election should be polled, i.e. will GOTV work, are the new dem registrations actually going to materialize into votes. This should be a very interesting few days coming up.

"Thatcher: "silent majority" is a euphemism to try to attempt race-baiting and try to rally pseudo-patriots. Nixon brought up the term in his second bid. And I believe the US has matured over the last 30-40 years that it doesn't exist - if it ever did."

I believe the creator of that term was actually a fellow named "Pat Buchanan", speechwriter for said President Nixon. It was applied to those "love it or leave it" types that thought that there was nothing at all to protest in the 1950's-early 1970's. That protests against segregation, racism, the Vietnam War, gender discrimination, etc. was simply evidence of the decay of the "traditional values" of the country and a communist plot.

The "nattering nabobs of negativism"... and "the left-wing liberal media" were two other memes that were popularized at the time.

not sure why anyone is focused on polls. Just look at intrade. it predicted every senate race in 2006 correctly - even those where the delta between candidates was less than 5 points. Obama is up by 70 points. The correct question is will he have more or less than 400 EVs at the end of this election

Batony?

Bat Outof New York? Because you sure are bat something crazy, IMO.

As to 'silent majority' - is that similar to 'moral majority', which was neither?