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US: Obama 49, McCain 46 (GWU 10/20-23, 26)

Topics: PHome

GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/20-10/23, 26,08; 1,000 LV 3.1%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 46

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

No surge in this crazy right wing poll.

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billwy:

crazy right-wing? Wonder how Lake research (d) feels about that charge?

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paradski:

No change = bad day for McCain is his best poll.

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MaxMBJ:

The stability of GWU shows it is the poll that has got the metrics down right. Watch as the others all start becoming GWU.

Which still gives Obama 3%. But the problem is, the narrative is changing: it's no longer "Barack's Blowout" but it's rapidly becoming "Barack's Blowing It."

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jamesugw:

MaxMBJ:
"The stability of GWU shows it is the poll that has got the metrics down right."

???
Haven't you been following the polls over the last few weeks? GWU has been yo-yoing with the best of them...

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oicu:

The stablest poll BY FAR has been Rasmussen. It also has very little house effect recently, as measured on fivethirtyeight.com. If you're going to trust one poll, there is every reason to trust Rasmussen over the others this cycle.

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Trosen:

Ouch.. here's a swift kick the groin of the big McCain "comeback" haha..

http://www.commonwealthpoll.vcu.edu/CPOLL-Pres-Sen-Race-report-10-26-08.pdf

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

************************************************************
WOO HOO !!!! 3 POLLS OUT OF VA.
************************************************************
Virginia Reuters/Zogby Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7

Virginia Washington Post Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8

Virginia VCU Obama 51, McCain 40 Obama +11

Let's see VA, CO, NM, IA, NH + Kerry states =

President Obama +

If Sydney takes NC which is still (O+4), FL (even), NV (O+4, MO (even) and OH (O+2) he is still waaaay behind.

Unless of course you give him PA which is (O+13). And then Sydney just looses by a few.

8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1....HOPE, PROGRESS

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MaxMBJ:

Rasmussen's stability is in free-fall right now. Three points in one day. I know he's been pushing that narrative because it makes it look like his polling is the most, well, stable, and hence accurate.

But the wheels are coming off that wagon. Three points in one day. As my good friend Boomshak would say, "Stunning!"

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OGLiberal:

@oicu

Agreed. And even though Rasmussen shows a tightening today, it still has Obama +5. And it still has Obama at 51%. As Rasmussen himself has noted, Obama hasn't dropped below 50 and McCain hasn't polled above 46 in the Rasmussen poll in over a month. That's remarkable stability and bad news for McCain. If Obama is at 50 in Rasmussen going into election day and he's pretty much on with his projections, McCain can't win.

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MaxMBJ:

Sarah Palin's crowd in Leesburg, Virginia is shouting even as I type, "Use your brain, vote McCain."

Your Virginia polls will reflect that in three days.

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richardkreed:

I love watching Groupthink Mindlock in action. It's the most fun thing we have since public hangings were discontinued.

Here's my 'prediction: If Lord Obama goes into election day with a 3% or more lead in the polls, he will almost surely win. If Lord Obama's final lead in the polls is less than 2%, he will almost sure lose. Look at the historical record.

Of course, my analysis makes one wildly optimistic assumption: That there be an honest vote count in the battleground states.

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Chris1966:

There maybe a closing of the gap in the final days of the campaign, but with the huge numbers of people who have already voted McCain would throughout the country take all the undecided to win.

And frankly I cannot see that happening

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Trosen:

MaxMBJ:
"Sarah Palin's crowd in Leesburg, Virginia is shouting even as I type, "Use your brain, vote McCain."

Your Virginia polls will reflect that in three days."

Yea.. a little rhyme by the Palin groupies ought to do the trick. Well done.

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NHBlue:

@ NYCREALAMERICAN:

"Let's see VA, CO, NM, IA, NH + Kerry states = "

NH was a Kerry state, not by much, but true blue nonetheless.

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OGLiberal:

@MaxMBJ

Re: Rasmussen...

In the last 32 days in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll, Obama has polled between 50 and 52 and McCain has polled between 44 and 46. How is today any different?

I just looked at those 32 days. Obama's average for that time period is 51 while McCain's is 45. So Obama is at his Rasmussen average for the last 32 days and McCain is a point above that average, which makes sense since more undecideds will break for McCain than for Obama. But you do know what it means for McCain if Obama gets 51% or even 50% of the popular votes on November 4, right?

Starting on 10/6 and running for five days, Obama posted leads in the daily Rasmussen poll of +8, +8, +6, +5, and +5. Did the sky fall for Obama then? Nope. And during that 5-day span, as he has over this 32-day span, he polled at 50 or above.

Free-fall? Not even close. Dream on.

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southern angler:

Here comes Johnny.......bye bye Barry

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Trosen:

Ouch! Another stinging steel-toed cowboy boot to the groin of the big McCain "surge"

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=03d2575c-2264-4ae8-93db-e71692ec846e

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MaxMBJ:

OG Lib:

You're cherry picking your data. If you wanted to, you could go back to the point where McCain was actually in the lead and say it's a free-fall towards Obama.

I'm looking at the one day difference between Sunday and Monday and it's a big, fat, Greek wedding 3 points. Now, buried in this is the fact that this is a rolling three-day poll. That means the dropoff was even more significant. The DailyKos poll shows a dropoff from 14 on Thursday to 5 on Sunday.

Gulp! We're talking Wile E. Coyote running off the cliff here, with the only thing holding him up is his spinning legs, bongo drums, and momentary lack of realization that the ground just disappeared below him.

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Trosen:

Ouch.. another one.. this one stings..
http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=9244278

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OGLiberal:

@MaxMBJ

Analyzing 32 days of post-convention, post economic crisis data is hardly cherry picking.

Obama is at 51%. Show me where he is losing support? If Obama continues to poll at or above 50% in the national polls, he wins, bottom line.

I showed another example of Obama going from +8 to +5. That happened over two days, not one. But he did experience a 2pt drop in one day. During that drop from +8 to +5, however, his own numbers went from 52 to 50. In this current 3pt drop, he only went from 52-51. This was more a case of McCain gaining (but still not getting above 46) than Obama losing. And, again, this could all be statistical noise.

What we have in this last week are undecideds - many of whom are disgruntled conservatives/GOPers - finally coming home to McCain, even though they don't like him. I noted this in the same post in which you accused me of cherry picking data. Even if McCain takes the remaining undecideds by a 3 to 1 margin - which is likely - he still can't win. The electoral math just isn't there for him and Obama at 50 or above in the popular vote on November 4 spells doom for McCain and a likely 300+ EV victory for Obama.

There is no surge. Face reality...it will be easier for you on 11/5.

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billwy:

@Trosen:
That poll is a few days old. from late last week. Zogby has McCain up modestly in the state. Honestly, I'm getting to the point where I do not trust SurveyUsa. In the course of one week they went from having O up 8 in Missouri to today showing a tie. There was not an 8 point shift last week in any state.

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laguna_b:

A week to go, many already voted, no polling anywhere showing McSame ahead nationally and preponderance of state polls in the most critical state for him showing a strong trend to him losing, yet like the deficit and imaginary WMDs you guys continue to deny reality....no wonder so many of you beleive in your imaginary friends that you pray to w/o ever getting a response....

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deeproy:

MaxMBJ is an alt.

The only way McCain can win this thing at this point is cheat, and alts like this one are spreading the BS to make it look like a real win.

McCain just might win this election, but it won't be because more people voted for him.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Wouldn't it be the biggest upset in presidential history if the old dude pulled this thing out lol?

Stay tuned, folks!

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sotonightthatimightsee:

BTW, ya'll sound like a bunch of pathetic nervous kids!

LMAO!!!

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MaxMBJ:

I'm new to this so I don't know what an "alt" is but I do know you've resorted to the age-old tactic of a losing arguer: an ad hominem attack.

Since you're probably not up to speed on what that is it means "attack the person, not the point." In other words, name call.

Good job.

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