Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: Obama 49, McCain 46 (GWU 10/23-29)

Topics: PHome

GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/23-29,08; 1,000 LV 3.1%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 46

 

Comments
reverendmatt:

Rasmussen today 5% difference again, there goes the McCain surge

O 51% M 46%

____________________

AB:

Early voting in NC as of 10:00 pm Oct 29:
1,847,564 early voters (29.68% of registered voters)
984,085 registered Dems (53.62%)
538,825 registered repubs (29.16%)
323,681 registered Inds (17.52%)
Difference between Dems and Repubs 485,918 (+Dem)
Registration in NC is:
6,232,230
45.69% Dems
32.00% Repubs
Registration numbers continue to creep in Dems direction on a day to day basis as more voters go to the polls for early onestop voting and register as Dems (and then vote).

____________________

johncoz:

I have a real problem with Battleground's small sample and long field period. It is, as Bilbo Baggins might say, like too little butter spread over too much bread.

____________________

RaleighNC:

Oooops!

____________________

huetdebd:

During the 1990s, while he served as chairman of the International Republican Institute (IRI), McCain distributed several grants to the Palestinian research center co-founded by Khalidi, including one worth half a million dollars.
A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, "West Bank)

____________________

ctj:

I think I saw the new hotline poll

O 48 M 42

____________________

huetdebd:

what's more difficult...waiting to become president like obama or waiting to lose your campaign to become president? at least if you lose you don't have to deal with all the problems. hold your head up on tuesday night mccain. it's ok to lose.

____________________

AB:

Here's two examples of how steep the hill is for McCain in NC:
Take the early voting numbers and run them this way:
Dem voters 80% for Obama, 20% for McCain
Rep voters 05% for Obama, 95% for McCain
Ind voters 30% for Obama, 70% for McCain
Obama 787,085 + 26,941 + 97,104 = 911,313
McCain 196,817 + 511,883 + 226,577 = 935,277
McCain is winning in NC right now if he's getting the above (really likely!) percentages.

Now with Rasmussens national averages
Dem voters 86% Obama, 12% McCain
Rep voters 12% Obama, 86% McCain
Ind voters 53% Obama, 47% McCain
Obama 846,313 + 64,659 + 171,550 = 1,082,522
McCain 118,090 + 463,390 + 152,130 = 733,610

Don't be surprised when you see NC, Virginia, and quite possibly Georgia fall in the Obama column when all is said and done next week.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

NC early voting.


Giving Obama 80% of the Democrat vote and 100% of the Republican vote to McCain - with McCain winning Indies by 60%, you get this:

Obama: 916740 (55.5%)
McCain: 733033 (45.5%)

Food for thought...

____________________

HillaryForMcCain:

C'mon Hillary suppoerters. We can do this. It is in sight. Keep up the ground work in PA and we can turn this thing into a 2012 victory.

NEVER FORGET HOW HILLARY WAS TREATED!

____________________

PlayingItStraight:

@AB ... don't get overly excited about positive numbers based on party registration in NC. Yes there has been a D surge in registrations, but if registration was all that counted in NC there wouldn't be any Republicans elected statewide.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

The race is 3 points. The other polls have been grudgingly making their way down from their lofty perches to this mark. TIPP has been saying this and the evidence confirms it. The momentary jumps you're seeing today in Ras and Zogby are just that: one day jumps which will settle back tomorrow towards that 3% mark.

Which means, McCain has a good chance still. If it's 3% or less on election day, he may do it. The Obama Effect is the wild card: that is, how many will, in the last hours, simply decided they can't vote for an artistically drawn Etch-a-Sketch candidate, one that might get shook up and erased the day after the election so that a new image may be drawn.

I'd say 3% of the nation will decide that's too big a risk. And so, we will have everyone up until 3 A.M. watching Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania go down to the wire.

____________________

Kile Thomson:

LOL @ fake Hilary supporters

____________________

metsmets:

How I see next Tuesday night based on when polls close in each state
I expect quick calls in safe states and slower calls on tighter races:

Poll closing times: (EST)

7:00 pm
Kentucky MCCAIN 8 TOTAL MCCAIN 8 OBAMA 0
Vermont OBAMA 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 8 OBAMA 3
S.Carolina MCCAIN 8 TOTAL MCCAIN 16 OBAMA 3
DC OBAMA 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 16 OBAMA 6

Indiana TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Georgia TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NH TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Virginia TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Florida TOO CLOSE TO CALL

7:30 pm
North Carolina TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Ohio TOO CLOSE TO CALL
West Virginia TOO CLOSE TO CALL

8:00 pm

Alabama MCCAIN 9 TOTAL MCCAN 25 OBAMA 6
Connecticut OBAMA 7 TOTAL MCCAIN 25 OBAMA 13
Delaware OBAMA 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 25 OBAMA 16
Florida TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Illinois OBAMA 21 TOTAL MCCAIN 25 OBAMA 37
Kansas MCCAIN 6 TOTAL MCCAIN 31 OBAMA 37
Massachusetts OBAMA 12 TOTAL MCCAIN 31 OBAMA 49
Maine OBAMA 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 31 OBAMA 53
Michigan OBAMA 17 TOTAL MCCAIN 31 OBAMA 70
Mississippi MCCAIN 6 TOTAL MCCAIN 37 OBAMA 70
Maryland OBAMA 10 TOTAL MCCAIN 37 OBAMA 80
New Jersey OBAMA 15 TOTAL MCCAIN 37 OBAMA 95
Oklahoma MCCAIN 7 TOTAL MCCAIN 44 OBAMA 95
South Dakota MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 47 OBAMA 95
Tennessee MCCAIN 11 TOTAL MCCAIN 58 OBAMA 95
Texas MCCAIN 34 TOTAL MCCAIN 92 OBAMA 95
Missouri TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Hampshire TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Pennsylvania TOO CLOSE TO CALL

8:30 pm
Arkansas MCCAIN 6 TOTAL MCCAIN 98 OBAMA 95

NETWORK CALLS
Indiana MCCAIN 11 TOTAL MCCAIN 109 OBAMA 95
- close but stays red.
Georgia MCCAIN 15 TOTAL MCCAIN 124 OBAMA 95 close - stays red.

9:00 pm

Arizona MCCAIN 10 TOTAL MCCAIN 134 OBAMA 95
Louisiana MCCAIN 9 TOTAL MCCAIN 143 OBAMA 95
Minnesota OBAMA 10 TOTAL MCCAIN 143 OBAMA 105
Nebraska MCCAIN 5 TOTAL MCCAIN 148 OBAMA 105
New York OBAMA 31 TOTAL MCCAIN 148 OBAMA 136
Rhode Island OBAMA 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 148 OBAMA 140
South Dakota MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 151 OBAMA 140
Texas MCCAIN 34 TOTAL MCCAIN 185 OBAMA 140
Wisconsin OBAMA 10 TOTAL MCCAIN 185 OBAMA 150
Wyoming MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 188 OBAMA 150
Colorado TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Mexico TOO CLOSE TO CALL

NETWORK CALLS
New Hampshire OBAMA 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 188 OBAMA 154
Virginia OBAMA 13 TOTAL MCCAIN 188 OBAMA 167 first state RED to BLUE
Florida OBAMA 27 TOTAL MCCAIN 188 OBAMA 194 close but win for Obama
North Carolina MCCAIN 15 TOTAL MCCAIN 203 OBAMA 194 stays red
West Virginia MCCAIN 5 TOTAL MCCAIN 208 OBAMA 194 stays red
Pennsylvania OBAMA 21 TOTAL MCCAIN 208 OBAMA 215 stays blue

10:00 pm

Idaho MCCAIN 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 212 OBAMA 215
Iowa OBAMA 7 TOTAL MCCAIN 212 OBAMA 222
Utah MCCAIN 5 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 222
Montana TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Nevada TOO CLOSE TO CALL
North Dakota TOO CLOSE TO CALL

11:00 pm

California OBAMA 55 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 277

NETWORK CALLS ELECTION!!!

Hawaii OBAMA 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 281
Oregon OBAMA 7 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 288
Washington OBAMA 11 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 299

NETWORK CALLS
Colorado OBAMA 9 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 308 goes blue
New Mexico OBAMA 5 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 312 goes blue
Montana MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 220 OBAMA 312 stays red
North Dakota MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 223 OBAMA 312 stays red


12:00 am
Alaska MCCAIN TOTAL MCCAIN 226 OBAMA 312 who cares???

____________________

Windependent:

Props for the Bilbo quote.

Interesting stats from NC for sure. I have a strong hunch that many of those NC Dems are voting McCain. But it can't be more than 20%, which would still point to a huge early Obama advantage.

Not that anyone really cares, but the Economist -- the vigorous defender of capitalism -- followed the Financial Times (as well as Buffet, Eric Schmidt, etc.) just endorsed Obama:

http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12516666&source=features_box_main

____________________

huetdebd:

what's more difficult...waiting to become president like obama or waiting to lose your campaign to become president? at least if you lose you don't have to deal with all the problems. hold your head up on tuesday night mccain. it's ok to lose.

____________________

AB:

@PlayingItStraight ...
Since Jan 1, 2008 there have been more than 620,000 new registrations in NC.
336,000+ have been Dems (net)
74,000+ Repubs (net)

____________________

AdamSC:

Rasmussen +5

I told you guys yesterday it would be at +5 for Obama. Tomorrow a new bounce begins.

Obama may not win in a landslide like most people perceive this election to be trending, but maybe. But, we will win, regardless. Republicans have had their chance and they have failed America in a big way, people are starting to feel it at the end of this year in an even bigger way.

Racism will be countered by people coming together for a common cause, to elect a democrat.

____________________

purplevoter:

I am an Independent that has decided to vote for Obama.
I have followed this site for a while and finally decided to
comment. These polls are erratic but they all lean in the same direction (Even Boom will admit to that). This race is still close because of two reasons:
1) The color of Obama's skin
2) His unusual name

Otherwise, it would have been a 30 point blowout!
Despite that, he is still going to win because he is so much more superior to the Republican ticket.

____________________

boomshak:

NBC/Mason Dixon Poll: Pennsylvania BO 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9%, Statistical TIE 10/30/08

NBC is as credible a source as two cats with tin cans tied together with string, sitting on the radiator, eating cheeseburgers.

They’ve consistently thrown polls to Obama throughout the primaries, and overestimated his support against Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by wide margins.

NBC was one of the polls that had “Dear Leader” winning Pennsylvania by 8 points against Clinton — a favorite poll to cite by Eeyores who wanted to cry into their oatmeal every morning, moaning, “Doomed! Doomed! We’re all DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!”.

Big babies.

Clinton won Pennsylvania by 10 points.

We believe John McCain will win the state by 5…the first Republican to do so in a generation.

NBC is using an incorrect party ID breakdown that overpolls Democrats; this means the new poll they released showing a statistical tie in Pennsylvania is probably polling 45% Dem, 25% Republican and 30% Independent — when the actual numbers should be 39% Dem, 35% Republican, and 26% Independent.

That means John McCain is probably ahead in Pennsylvania right now — hence Obama’s sudden and bewildered return to a state the media claimed he sewed up ages ago. Hence Gov. Rendell’s sweating bullets. Hence the wonderful development of Rep. Murtha very likely losing his seat (we will never support any politician who speaks ill of the United States Marines. We don’t care who you are: you badmouth boots on the ground and you’re no longer someone we can ever support. God Bless our Marines. We wish the polar opposite on Murtha).

When McCain field offices in the Pittsburgh area are being staffed by DEMOCRATS working nonstop to elect a Republican, well, you better believe Obama’s going to lose the Keystone State.

____________________

DCDemocrat:

HillaryForMcCain: What an absurd user name. I was foursquare for Hillary in the primaries, but like Hillary, I am foursquare for Obama in the general.

____________________

zotz:

MaxMJB-
Too much coffee dude!
Switch to decaf.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@MaxMBJ

TIPP? Tipp has only recently been saying 3%. Just last week it had been saying 7%. Again, you twist reality to fit the warped view of the election that you've etch-a-sketched.

____________________

johncoz:

@MaxMBJ:
The race is 3 points

Do not let ideology blind you to reality. If you are relying on Battleground and TIPP for support, then you are resting on the polls with the smallest sample size and major problems with their weighting and LV models.

But don't take my word for it -- consult RCP and Pollster: two totally different methodologies but very similar results.

If this is a 3-pt horse race the fact has eluded everybody bar Sludge and Billo the Clown. Great company you're keeping.

____________________

purplevoter:

Hey Boom,

Who is "we"? Are you talking to your imaginary friends as well?

____________________

Voltron Defender of the Universe:

I think the networks will be able to call New Mexico at poll closing, as well as PA and possibly Virginia and Colorado

____________________

sunnymi:

Boomshak, do you know the Party ID by the registration statistics available for PA state:

Dem - 51
Rep - 37
Ind - 6
Oth - 6


Most polls are getting around that numbers when poll using the demographics alone.

It is a joke to say there are 25%+ independents in that state.

____________________

AB:

Democrats in NC are very enthused about voting for Obama, you see it everywhere you go.
Early voting turnout for Dems is above base registration percentage.
Early voting turnout for Repubs is below base registration.
If you think that Dems are rushing to the polls to vote for McCain while Repubs are (relatively speaking) staying home, you're kidding yourself. There is a very concentrated effort on the ground here to target Obama voters and get them to the polls. And it is working.
I believe that the same thing is happening in Georgia, it's just going to be closer there.

____________________

zotz:

boom-
Olberman isn't doing the damn poll, Mason-Dixon is! BTW the last M-D poll of PA in Sept. had Obama up by 2 points. So, according to this pollster Obama's support in PA has doubled!

____________________

Chester:

@ Boom -
how can you claim that Mac is ahead in PA based on one poll, no matter if it is credible (which is f*cking debatable!), when a dozen other polls show him behind 8 - 13 points? To me, the NBC is what the PEW national poll was to you: it may be credible, but it can still be an outlier!

____________________

jeric:

@boomshak

Couldn't the most recent PA poll reflect McCain's now fading surge a few days ago? Somebody was saying yesterday that state polls lag national polls by up to a week.

____________________

Steve_OH:

@MaxMBJ:

"Which means, McCain has a good chance still. If it's 3% or less on election day, he may do it. The Obama Effect is the wild card: that is, how many will, in the last hours, simply decided they can't vote for an artistically drawn Etch-a-Sketch candidate, one that might get shook up and erased the day after the election so that a new image may be drawn."

Well, there you have it; you've just outlined exactly why McCain can't win. The answer to your question, of course, is "some, perhaps, but certainly not all." McCain's problem is that he can win only if all of them do, which obviously won't happen.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@boom - are you going to apologize as well? What type of man are you?

____________________

ErnieLynch:

see this link for the real PA numbers tracked daily, not just once a month.

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/

____________________

johncoz:

Good try on PA boom. But even with Mason Dixon Pollster and RCP both show a resounding victory for Obama in the Keystone state.

btw the poll was not conducted by Keith Olbermann but by MD, whose house effect has been about 2-3pts in favour of Repubs.

But dream on ...

____________________

dc:

@boomshak:

"NBC/Mason Dixon Poll: Pennsylvania BO 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9%, Statistical TIE 10/30/08

NBC is as credible a source as two cats with tin cans tied together with string, sitting on the radiator, eating cheeseburgers."

Yet, you rest what little hope you have left on them? Sad.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

I don't know what "two cats with tin cans tied together with string, sitting on the radiator, eating cheeseburgers." is supposed to mean exactly...

You keep listing times where NBC got things wrong. So wouldn't they have a good chance of being wrong this time then?

You kept slamming that Pew poll because it was the only poll out there with a 15 point Obama lead. Now you try to leech on this Mason Dixon poll, even though it's the only poll out there with results like that. Your hypocrisy is abhorrent. People have noted that Mason Dixon hasn't polled Penn in six weeks, making their reliability at understanding the state questionable. Even then, this poll is an improvement for Obama, 2 points better than the last poll.

Who the "Hell" is the "we" you keep referring to? Who are the poor people that you've all but desecrating by associating them with your vile hypocrite lying self?

And did you even write this? Or did you steal it from someone else without citation, again?

____________________

gryff_the_canadian:

My first attempt at connecting ... though I've been lurking for three months

gryff :)

____________________

gryff_the_canadian:

Ok it worked :)

I signed up because I'm very interested in AB's North Carolina analysis ... been doing the same sort of caculations myself.

NC seems like one to watch

gryff :)

____________________

DecaturMark:

After yesterday's Rasmussen, Boomshak stopped his greiving. But now with the new Ras out showing that yesterday was just a hiccup, he has started greiving again. His little scenerio of how McCain is winning PA shows that he is in the denial stage once again. Boom, for your health's sake, please stop looking at the polls they will just upset you.

____________________

purplevoter:

McCain has run a horrible campaign.
One week, Obama is a celebrity, another he is a terrorist, the next he's a socialist and now, finally, we hear he is a communist. What's next? He's running out of time.

If he had stuck to the middle and picked a decent running mate, he would have gotten the Independents like me and the wingnuts would have voted for him anyway.

He panicked and made stupid decisions. That's why I do not want him being my President.

By the way Obama will win PA by 8 next Tuesday.

____________________

Mark Blumenthal:

@boomshak - Last night you wrote:

"the American Public doesn't want a Jew-hating Sociialist running the economy."

I asked you last night to take a moment to explain to me and everyone else how this comment qualifies as remotely civil and intelligent? And why I should not consider it an obvious violation of the comments policy of this blog and grounds for banning?

I'm still listening. Go ahead. Explain please.

I'll say it again: I am in no mood right now to see anyone wave a false flag of antisemitism, and if you don't understand why, perhaps someone who actually reads this blog can explain it to you.

While you're at it, you might also explain this comment from this morning:

"@mysticlaker:....You STUPID liberal f*ck"

And how does dropping the "u" qualify this as civil and non-abusive?

I've now asked twice. I will not ask a third time.

____________________

purplevoter:

Yea, Boom, its OK.
Accept the fact that McCain was not up to the job.

I've been following these polls for over 2 months and the last 3 weeks of polls have been incredibly stable. Other than the Bush battleground States, the candidates have not gone anywhere else.

Blue is getting bluer and Red is getting redder and the BG States are breaking for Obama.

____________________

AB:

Mark,
Since I see you just posted here ...
Thanks, and thanks for the nice website.
Perhaps there could be a thread just for Boomshak, Mysticlaker, Southernangler, NW, the other Boomshack, etc so that they wouldn't immediately fill up every thread and pretty much take the discussion to personal slamming .....
(I'm serious about this idea.)
Thanks again,
Alan

____________________

purplevoter:

Mark,

I have just joined this site but been following for a few months. Although I don not agree with anything Boomshack writes, I do find him amusing. His last few comments have not been good ones but I do think it is coming more from the frustration that is building as we get closer to a Democratic sunnami on Nov 4th.

I do hope that he will moderate his language because we will sorely miss him if he is banned.

____________________

mrzookie:

Mark,

Kudos to you for stepping in and dealing with this completely out of line comment. Regarding Boom's use of foul language, in all fairness, there are others who use plenty of it as well, some not even bothering to insert the asterisk. Would be good to see all of it toned down. Thanks.

____________________

Viperlord:

Mark: Thanks for upholding the comment policy, kudos to you. May I suggest looking at some of the comments southern angler's been making as well?

____________________

mysticlaker:

Alan,

I apologize for yesterday. It was uncalled for. I am sorry if I offended you, and anyone else. I lost my temper with the race baiting, but it's not an excuse. I am really sorry.

ML

____________________

The_Huntsman:

Please don't be too harsh on Boomshak... while he does bring down the level of conversation into the gutter, it would be a shame if he was banned so close to the election. Hopefully he will tone down the garbage.

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

@ The_Huntsman
I disagree, there are school kids that follow this site (see Mark's previous comments). Even if there weren't it would be nice if we actually stuck to talking about polls around here instead of spewing vitriol. Ban 'em.

____________________

GriffStep:

@Mark Blumenthal,

I understand that you have a rule prohibiting profanity. Speaking only for myself, I don't find boomshak's use of it so troubling- though of course I would prefer he not be so hostile. It should be noted that his hostility is reciprocated by plenty of posters here, and perhaps it's not so wise to come down on one side or the other of that battle.

On the other hand, his accusations of anti-Semitism clearly crossed a line, as did boskop's approving reference to the assassination of JFK.

Unlike boskop, boomshak generally has something to say about the polls themselves. I would therefore favor giving him another chance. If someone should be banned, it's boskop. (Not that I have any special authority- just expressing my preference).

Best,
SG

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Mark,
I would like to join many others who have praised you for personally stepping in to try to resolve some of the ugliness. And while the racism and antisemitism should not be tolerated, nor should some of the more colorful expletives routinely used on this site, I strongly urge to you delay banning boomshak or anyone from this site until after the elections, if at all.

I think your personal intervention has sent a very strong and necessary message in and of itself. IMHO, the posters will now use added restraint and self-editing because of it. Please let off boomshak with a stern warning for now.

As intolerable racism and antisemitism are to me as a Jew, Internet censorship is also a scary extreme. I urge you to let this violation go, as a last warning perhaps.

Thank you for your consideration and infinite understanding and patience with us all :).

____________________

Viperlord:

Here's boom's explanation Mark:

"I believe Obama is anti-semetic, what's to explain? let the LATimes release the Khalidi Video tape and prove me wrong.

I believe Obama made Jew hating comments at that party.

Show me the video and prove me wrong."

____________________

archaeoman:

@ Boomshak

You say: "I believe Obama is anti-semetic, what's to explain? let the LATimes release the Khalidi Video tape and prove me wrong.

I believe Obama made Jew hating comments at that party.

Show me the video and prove me wrong."

The LATimes reported half a year ago that at the Khalidi party Obama called for the Palestinians and Israel to "find common ground". That is not anti-Israel, far less anti-semitic. There is no "conspiricay" behind the LATimes' refusal to release the video - they made a promise to the source and are standing by that promise. Those are the facts. By no stretch of the even wildest imagination do they warrant your smears of Obama, quoted above. If you have additional facts (as opposed to baseless allegations) suggesting Obama is an anti-semite, you better hurry up and trot them out. If not you should apologize and tone down. I've enjoyed reading your takes on the polls and would miss you if you were banned from the site, but you don't smear an honorable person with labels like "anti-semitic" unless you've got solid evidence to back it up. Continue on this path and I'm with Mark - you're taking the debate down to a level that is simply unacceptable.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR