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Articles and Analysis

 

US: Obama 49, McCain 47 (GWU 10/15-16,10/19-21)

Topics: PHome

GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/15-16, 10/19-21, 08; 1,000 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 47

 

Comments
NorthernObserver:

Obama has doubled his lead in one day according to this poll! What's up with these guys?

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IndependentThinker:

Ummmh this poll will wholeheartedly be cherrypicked by boomNONSENSE but the question remains who cares?

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Trosen:

This clearly the outlier poll. But with that said, it shouldn't be ignored. Still, I'd love to see the crosstabs.

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Angus Mc:

Anyone ever find a justification for why they don't poll on Fridays and Saturdays?

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CaptainPatent:

They do have weekly tabs and not daily tabs which makes things more difficult. The most recent tabs are listed as the 16th.

Counts and responses are on different pages though. The following will be (group type/%sample / Obama / McCain)

Male 48% / 42% / 45%
Female 52% / 52% / 32%

18-34 21% / 56% / 32%
35-44 19% / 47% / 41%
45-64 35% / 45% / 44%
65+ 21% / 39% / 43%
refused 1% / 35% / 36%

White 77% / 40% / 47%
AA 11% / 91% / 1%
Latino 8% / 56% / 29%
Other 4% / 54% / 29%

It appears they have decent internals, although they do use a weighting system that may put the youth and AA vote lower than it should be. The AA vote in fact has the lowest "motivation" at 69% extremely likely, 27% very likely and 4% somewhat likely. In comparison, white is 77%/18%/2%, and latino is 71%/25%/3%.

With the AA vote starting at 11% (maybe a touch low) and having some of them chopped out for being "very" instead of "extremely" likely, who knows how that's being weighted. The youth vote MAY be a touch underrepresented also, but nothing looks outrageous to be quite honest.

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