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US: Obama 50, McCain 40 (DemCorps-10/8-12)

Topics: PHome

Democracy Corps (D) /
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)
10/8-12/08; 1,000 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 40, Nader 2, Barr 3, Paul 0

 

Comments
Boris_Dieter:

@wakeup, boomshak and other dreamers:

Practice the roll of loyal opposition; it's the one you ought to be playing for the next four years. Of course, you'll talk about the bias of the MSM, the bad luck of a cratered economy, the burdens of war, the ineptness of the Palin/McCain organization. The GOP faithful will snarl and speak in tongues for a long time. The only risk, a real one, is that the goofy left of the Democratic party will oblige the party to do some goofy things. Mistakes will happen. The tide and cycle will move along, and the GOP will rise again, hopefully better prepared for the kind of world we live in, rather than the three centuries old village economy they've celebrated in the past.

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Viperlord:

Care to spin this one for us boom****?

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PortlandRocks:

Wow wasn't this one where Obama was only up by 3 before?

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PortlandRocks:

OMG that's GREAT. Boom****. That is what I shall call him from now on.

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kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

wake up.

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KipTinBoomShakNotTooBright:

@wakeup

Wake up!!!

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Save US:

WOW! Obama up by 2 in ND....

North Dakota Forum Poll/MSUM
McCain 43, Obama 45 Obama +2

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OneAngryDwarf:

Alright I think it is pretty clear by all indidcators that Obama leads in the national polls by 5-8.

Lets see some state polls so we can start seeing if the EC starts to solidify for the good guys.

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cinnamonape:

Wasn't DemCorps actually calling this one close? There was some speculation that they were trying some new sampling or weighting methods to see who they should target.

Now it's back to a very firm lead. HMM?

BTW...The one individual that might actually sway things in North Carolina has made his pronouncement.

Coach Dean Smith has sent out an email to his extensive list of UNC fan supporters that he and his wife support Obama.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?S=78&F=1414&T=3190929&P=1

A lot of Carolinians are gonna think...if the great strategist and judge of character coach Dean Smith trusts him...then why can't I?

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ThatMarvelousApe:

wakeup is trying to spin that a small market rally today proves that, in fact, the Bush-McCain economy is great after all!

Talk about delusion!

But please please please, get McCain to make similar tone deaf comments. Regular people who are worried about their houses, their, credit and their 401Ks know better.

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mysticlaker:

McCain:Standup!

McCain: I mean sitdown!

McCain: Fight!

McCain: I mean don't fight!

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Boris_Dieter:

Methinks Wakeup is taking a massive dose of his favorite hallucinogen and thinking about how things might have gone had McCain selected Huckabee as his running mate and chosen to remain true to his long-dead maverick identity. Oh well, he wasn't that hard to beat up on. I figure we should all go back to our day jobs before we get caught blogging. Can't wait for McBull to be put out of his misery on Wednesday's last debate. He's not going to be able to avoid being the snarling, ugly monster that he's become, and if he tries to suppress it, he'll look like he's been lobotimized, kinda like his running mate.

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Pat:

@boomshak

Your argument that McShame was polling very well on the 12th ...... apparently he did not poll better than 40 or the previous days were in the 30s.

In all the polls, McShame is stuck in the low 40s.

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OneAngryDwarf:

RCP is so weird. They won't take certain polls but they will take others. They just switched ND to lean McCain yet they don't have CO as lean Obama. Their model is complete crap at this point.

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sunnymi:


This poll is pretty bad for McCain despite over-polling voters over 65. Also to be noted is the fact that Dem party ID advantage is only +8 (just +1.7% over Ras numbers).

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Thatcher:

@OneAngryDwarf:

RCP will not be using "partisan" leaning polls in their averages as of yesterday ... they've been posting about this for a while now. I'm not defending their belief - just sharing:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/use_of_partisan_affiliated_pol.html

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Boris_Dieter:

Is it true that Dean Smith, coach at North Carolina basketball has endorsed Obama? I heard about it, but can't believe it. That would be too good to be true.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Thatcher

Thanks I must have missed that somehow.

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Thatcher:

@Boris_Dieter ...

yes. the link to the thread about it is about 1/2way up the page by cinnamonape.

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thoughtful:

Looking at the Internals McCain is in even deeper with this poll.

The party ID looks relatively sound. The ethnic mix is under polled as are the 18-29.

The McCain/Palin campaign is in quicksand, sinking, flailing, gasping, trying to grab hold of anything that can can save it from sinking, nearly over its head.

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RussTC3:

New polls from Marist College.

Ohio 10/5-8 771LV (9/11-15)
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 45 (45)
961RV = Obama 48/40 (44/44)

Pennsylvania 10/5-8 757LV (9/11-15)
Obama 53 (49)
McCain 41 (44)
943RV = Obama 49/40 (45/42)

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johncoz:

The problem with RCP is that their methodology is both opaque (the refuse to produce an FAQ) and subjective. Nonetheless they cannot avoid the underlying maths of this race, even if they provide a more conservative spin on it.

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wakeup:

If you registered through ACORN and you see the FBI in your town... do you vote?

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boomshak:

10 point sampling edge to Democrats. More bullsh*t from a Democrat pollster.

Fail. Next.

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boomshak:

Hundreds of Economists Sign Letter Opposing Obama's Tax Plan

Hundreds of economists (including Nobel Prize winners Gary Becker, James Buchanan, Robert Mundell, Edward Prescott, and Vernon Smith) have signed letters opposing Barack Obama's economic and tax plans (here, here, and here):

We are equally concerned with his proposals to increase tax rates on labor income and investment. His dividend and capital gains tax increases would reduce investment and cut into the savings of millions of Americans. His proposals to increase income and payroll tax rates would discourage the formation and expansion of small businesses and reduce employment and take-home pay, as would his mandates on firms to provide expensive health insurance.

After hearing such economic criticism of his proposals, Barack Obama has apparently suggested to some people that he might postpone his tax increases, perhaps to 2010. But it is a mistake to think that postponing such tax increases would prevent their harmful effect on the economy today. The prospect of such tax rate increases in 2010 is already a drag on the economy. Businesses considering whether to hire workers today and expand their operations have time horizons longer than a year or two, so the prospect of higher taxes starting in 2009 or 2010 reduces hiring and investment in 2008.

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boomshak:

OBAMA ON FILM: SPREAD THE WEALTH AROUND...

http://www.breitbart.tv/html/195153.html

Marxism 2008.

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Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

boomshak

oh man, Obama's going to have to find warren buffet and hundreds of economists +1 to sign a letter supporting Obamas tax plan.

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wakeup:

Market up 560... If you calculate poll weight using ACORN RV's does that muddy the statistical waters?

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johncoz:

Gallup 51-41 RV

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Obama is Mabus:

Don't worry about the election Obama is going to win , you will get what you have ask for.

http://augustafreepress.com/2008/09/18/webcast-ray-mabus-stumps-for-obama/

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johncoz:

Gallup
51-44 LV I
53-43 LV II

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johncoz:

Simple average of all today's nationals, including Gallup

Obama 50.6% / +8.2

Weighted average will show slightly lower spread, but higher vote percentage.

We are in exactly the same territory as we were all last week.

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political_junki:

BOOM:
Have you seen todays Gallup?
Does that make you happy too?
:)))

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political_junki:

Survey USA
OBAMA +8 in MO :)))

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