10/14-16, 08; 804 LV 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50, McCain 40
This is an outlier because Boomshak said so.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:54 AM
Hey, it's only 6-8 points off from Rasmussen/Gallup LV's. How can THAT be an outlier?
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:02 AM
Unless there is something extraordinary in Gallup at 1pm, Obama will maintain his national support in the 50-51% band for the 5 3-day trackers, and the battlegrounds should continue to slip away from McCain.
Rasmussen's CO and NV figures this afternoon will be of particular interest.
This story linked below is a far more relevant than these meaningless tracking polls. Swing states and inside them swing counties are where this election will be decided. Obsessing over two point movements in national tracking polls just plays into boom's hysteria.
And Boomshak's logic for discrediting this poll to begin in...5...4...3...2...1
It's an outlier because it's rarely that Obama leads with double digits. I saw by the way a very nice gadget at Wallstreetjournal.com, called Electoral Compass. Here you can discover your position in the political landscape!
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:04 AM
Wow !! Look at the Batttleground 2008 graph -- it gives you a great hint on the momemtum going to McCain -- Closing down the deal... I guess people are starting to realize that after 8 years with an airhead ( GWB) , the last think we need is another airhead (BO) ...
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:08 AM
I posted this in another thread, and I'll repost it here so that everyone can watch it:
I suggest that everyone, regardless of political affiliation, check out Tom Udall's ad "Humbled."
It is one of the most heartfelt, touching, inspiring political ads I've ever watched, and it really puts into perspective how we should DEMAND that our neighbors and politicians really DO put the priorities of our soldiers and veterans first, instead of just saying that they do in a political speech or with a yellow ribbon on the back of their SUV. We really are lucky to have individuals like Tom Udall and Jim Webb in Washington who make it their number one priority to fight for real people instead of just talking about fighting for real people every time they're up for re-election, and it gives me hope that we really will be able to turn things around before it's too late in this country.
Here's the link:
And more information about the ad and the young man in the ad from Udall's website:
The young man in this video is inspirational beyond words. I really wish this was a nationally televised ad because the whole country deserves to hear Erik Schei's story, and they should really be educated as to whether or not their senators and representatives are fighting for those who fought for us. Those of you in New Mexico are very lucky to have a soon-to-be elected Senator like Tom Udall serving you (trust me, I live in KY, so I know what two VERY bad senators look like), and you are even more lucky to have a brave soldier like Erik Schei living in your community.
I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 48.7 McCain 43.7
Hotline, Obama 50 McCain 40
Battleground, Obama 49 McCain 45
Average: Obama 49.4 McCain 43.6
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44
Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7
*We need to add Gallup when it comes out :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:06 AM
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:10 AM
This is an outlier only in the sense that it undercounts McCain's support. Obama at 50 is probably just about right. No way Obama wins by double digits or even by 5 in the popular vote. Come election day, we'll likely see Obama get about 50-51 percent of the vote with McCain getting about 48-49. And that means - Obama wins. Plus, electorally, Obama's totals will probably be relatively large. (at least in relation to the 2000 and 2004 numbers)
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:11 AM
Agree with your analysis. I think a lot the "undecideds" will go with McCain. Obama support is more enthusiastic. McCain supporters are more likely to be undecided, if the pollster does not push.
I think a few of the undecided will break for Obama, so you could see his percent go up a point or two in the vote, but I think 54% is a real ceiling for him. 51 or 52% is more likely.
Again, that will be a landslide victory, assuming no major changes in the race over the next 2.5 weeks.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:14 AM
wheres the state polls????lazy pollsters!
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:15 AM
Well, I'll explain what a rational, objective person does as opposed to well.. you know. I don't "throw out" the GWU or RAS because I don't like the #s (actually I do.. Obama hovering at or near 50 still is perfect) just like I won't "throw out" this poll because it shows a larger spread than the others. A rational, objective person averages them out. And what that shows, is a solid 4-5 point national lead for Obama, with no indication yet than any critical state polls are reflecting a tangible McCain "surge." (that yet may come - although if MO is any indication.. no) So as it stands today, Obama is in very good shape, as an an Obama supporter and volunteer (duh), I'm very happy, but certainly not overconfident. I'll be working this weekend for the campaign, as will thousands of others down here in FL.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:16 AM
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 47.9 McCain 43.6
Hotline, Obama 48 McCain 42
Battleground, Obama 51 McCain 43
Average: Obama 49..2 McCain 43.4
*We need to add Gallup when it comes out :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:19 AM
Actually, you make a very good point. I think this slight tightening in the polls will remind us to make one more final emphatic push to get this thing done. We certainly should not be overconfident. The nice thing is that with state polls largely unaffected, we are reminded to make a big final push while this race still resembles monumental blowout in the electoral college.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:21 AM
Poll: Obama ahead in critical counties
A new Politico/Insider Advantage survey finds he leads in four key counties, an advantage that could determine the winner of four vital swing states.
Sen. Barack Obama holds leads in four key counties that will go a long way toward determining the eventual winner in four important swing states — Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia — according to a new Politico/Insider Advantage survey.
Obama is poised to expand on recent Democratic gains in three populous suburban counties — Pennsylvania’s Bucks County, Missouri’s St. Louis County and Virginia’s Prince William County. In a fourth, Ohio’s Franklin County, home to Columbus and its suburbs, the survey also found Obama with the lead.
In Bucks County, a politically competitive but historically Republican suburb that shares a border with Philadelphia, Obama is running ahead of McCain, 47-41 percent. In 2004, Democrat John F. Kerry carried the county by a slim 51percent to 48 percent.
Obama bests McCain 50 percent to 42 percent in Prince William County, a Washington, D.C. suburb that voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Between 1976 and 2004, Prince William County supported Republican presidential candidates by an average margin of 18 points.
Obama also has opened up a wide 53 percent to 37 percent advantage over McCain in suburban St. Louis County, which does not include Missouri’s largest city, St. Louis. In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry, the Democratic nominee, carried St. Louis County, the most populous county in the state, 54 percent to 45 percent.
In Ohio’s Franklin County, the state’s second-most populous county after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, Obama leads by a narrower 45 percent to 40 percent margin. Kerry carried Franklin County 54 percent to 45 percent in 2004.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:23 AM
Baring a significant event McCain will slowly eat into Obamas's lead. Not because Obama is slipping but because the remaining undecided demographic will break towards McCain, at least that is conventional wisdom. With 1-2 percent at least going 3rd party Obama's 49-52 percent average he has held for weeks now, puts him in a commanding position in regards to popular vote. Electoral is more complicated with more variables. It's unusual to lose with the popular vote, but it can happen. Fingers crossed but this is not over.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:25 AM
Totally agree. I think Obama's lead in solidifying but McCain is bringing back those previous supporters that had left the fold.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:28 AM
Hey Boom. How come you never comment on RAS State results? Obama +6 in MO? WOW. Outlier? FAIL!
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:31 AM
The undecideds would have to break significantly in McCain's favor (say 75/25) for it to have an affect on the final outcome.
I would suggest that a landslide among undecideds in either direction seems unlikely to me. People have a lot of reasons for being undecided since there are so many reasons to question BOTH candidates.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:34 AM
I read here daily but this is my first time posting. I think Chuck Todd from MSNBC has been on target with his predictions. I remember when the "Palin Effect" boosted Mccain's numbers and Chuck said on a Monday that he expects to see his numbers decrease by the end of the week and by that Friday they did.
A few days ago he said he expects to see Obama's lead down to 4 or 5 points by the end of the week as some of the "undecideds come home to Mccain." He's right again.
He also said that nationals aren't the big picture.. it all comes down to the electorate and that things are looking very grim for Mccain on that front. Time will tell...
lol! Mornin' Portland!
Good point. I'm expecting a 2:1 movement of undecideds towards McCain. I think 3:1 is unlikely, as you point out, but I imagine that many of the undecideds are unhappy Republicans who won't vote for the Democrat, even if they don't like McCain.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:38 AM
If the last three debates have shown something is a closing of the gap in the days preceeding them (and reflected by polls today and tomorrow) and opening up a couple of points after that.
Obama may get a mini-bouce over the weekend but probably it will tighten a bit more before the election. I think that we will go to the polls with Obama at +3 to +5 but with good enough prospects.
I am very happy that my state (PA) is out of reach but still will volunteer on election day to buss voters to the polls.
As it looks now, Obama has so many options. I like very much our chance in CO, VA and NV, a little less in FL. I am skeptical about OH, MO and NC but all three are doable.
Would not bet on WV and IN.
We have in the bag the Kerry states + IA and NM. That's 264 EV. Just one more state guys, one more state!
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:39 AM
I guess Intrade doesn't cherry pick polls.
north dakota in play:
North Dakota North Dakota UTU (D) McCain 41, Obama 44 Obama +3
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:41 AM
They are grim for McCain but through out this election cycle the state polls have followed the national polls. Hopefully the increased allocation of resources will stem this.
Colin Powell might endorse Obama
By: Mike Allen
October 17, 2008 10:21 AM EST
Retired Gen. Colin Powell, once considered a potential running mate for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), now may endorse his opponent, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), according to Republican sources. But an air of mystery surrounds Powell's planned live appearance Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," and no one is sure what he will say.
Powell’s unassailable national security credentials could sway voters who are vacillating about whether Obama is ready to be commander in chief, and would make a national security emphasis by McCain in the closing days extremely difficult.
Powell, 71, a professional soldier for 35 years, has advised the last three Republican presidents.
The general’s camp is being coy about what he might or might not say on Sunday. But some McCain advisers suspect, without being sure, that Powell will endorse Obama.
“It’s going to make a lot of news, and certainly be personally embarrassing for McCain," a McCain official said. "It comes at a time when we need momentum, and it would create momentum against us.”
Powell, a four-star Army general, was national security adviser to President Ronald Reagan; chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the 1991 Persian Gulf war, when George H.W. Bush was president; and President George W. Bush’s first secretary of State,
Powell has consulted with both Obama and McCain, and the general’s camp has indicated in the past that he would not endorse.
On “Meet the Press” in June 2007, Powell said: “I’ve met with Senator Obama twice. I’ve been around this town a long time, and I know everybody who is running for office, and I make myself available to talk about foreign policy matters and military matters with whoever wishes to chat with me."
Asked by moderator Tim Russert if he would come back into government, Powell said: “I would not rule it out. I’m not at all interested in political life, if you mean elected political life. That is unchanged. But I always keep my, my eyes open and my ears open to requests for service.”
Asked about an endorsement, he said: “It’s too early.”
NBC’s ‘Andrea Mitchell broke the news of Powell’s surprise “Meet the Press” appearance on the “Today” show Friday.
“In what promises to be a dramatic moment Sunday, Colin Powell — a lion of the Republican establishment, whom McCain and Obama both have courted for months — will finally speak out on a variety of issues, appearing exclusively on ‘Meet the Press,’” Mitchell said. “Of course, years ago, he was talked about as the possible first … African-American nominee of a major party.”
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:42 AM
colin powell+the clintons = game over!
boomcrack = loser
The MO poll is a big one, because it fails to show tightening. MO should be solidly McCain by this point. McCain's inability to close the deal here, in VA, or in CO points to some real problems for him.
Certain posters may celebrate 4 point swings in a subset of the national polls.
Lack of movement to McCain in the states that matter is far more important in determining the outcome.
I am personally skeptical if Colin Powell will endorse on MTP until it actually happens. He is extremely adept at walking the thin rope. I will not be surprised if he does that one more time.
I have no doubt he will vote for Obama but public endorsement is an altogether different matter.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:47 AM
I see a reversal of the situation we had in 2004. Then the Dems were mainly voting AGAINST Bush rather than FOR Kerry. The Reps at that time were enthusiastic about Bush and the turnout on election day reflected that.
Now the Dems love their candidate and the Reps are luke warm about theirs. The Reps have to rely on fear and hatred of Obama to drive turnout especially since Palin's favorability ratings have been going down.
This is bad news for Republican turnout on Nov. 4.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:50 AM
More thoughts on undecideds!
Using the average of tracking polls with some rounding (thanks carl29!) our current state is
If the undecided break 2:1 to McCain
If undecideds break 3:1 to McCain
This shows why Obama breaking (or even nearing) the 50% barrier is so important even with undecideds.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:51 AM
I'm feeling reflective today. Let's look at the state of the electoral college today.
I will only include October forward polls.
RCP Average 10/05 - 10/14 -- 50.4 44.6 Obama +5.8
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 762 LV 51 47 Obama +4
Suffolk 10/10 - 10/13 600 LV 47 43 Obama +4
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 10/08 - 10/12 1088 LV 52 43 Obama +9
InAdv/PollPosition 10/06 - 10/06 485 LV 51 45 Obama +6
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
RCP Average 09/27 - 10/13 -- 49.2 46.2 Obama +3.0
InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 506 LV 49 46 Obama +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 10/08 - 10/09 625 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Reno Gazette-Journal 10/03 - 10/06 600 LV 50 43 Obama +7
Rasmussen 10/02 - 10/02 700 LV 51 47 Obama +4
RCP Average 10/03 - 10/14 -- 48.9 45.7 Obama +3.2
Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/14 700 LV 49 49 Tie
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/13 575 LV 50 45 Obama +5
InAdv/PollPosition 10/09 - 10/09 509 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Marist 10/05 - 10/08 771 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/04 - 10/08 876 LV 46 48 McCain +2
Strategic Vision (R) 10/06 - 10/08 1200 LV 48 46 Obama +2
ARG 10/04 - 10/07 600 LV 48 45 Obama +3
CNN/Time 10/03 - 10/06 749 LV 50 47 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/04 - 10/05 1239 LV 49 43 Obama +6
ABC News/Wash Post 10/03 - 10/05 772 LV 51 45 Obama +6
RCP Average 10/04 - 10/14 -- 49.8 45.0 Obama +4.8
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 765 LV 51 46 Obama +5
InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 612 LV 48 44 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 51 46 Obama +5
Research 2000 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Strategic Vision (R) 10/06 - 10/08 1200 LV 52 44 Obama +8
Mason-Dixon 10/04 - 10/06 625 LV 48 46 Obama +2
RCP Average 10/04 - 10/15 -- 49.3 46.8 Obama +2.5
Rasmussen 10/15 - 10/15 700 LV 52 46 Obama +6
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 763 LV 48 49 McCain +1
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/12 546 LV 51 43 Obama +8
ARG 10/04 - 10/06 600 LV 46 49 McCain +3
RCP Average 10/03 - 10/13 -- 47.9 46.7 Obama +1.2
InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 474 LV 48 46 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 48 48 Tie
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV 48 43 Obama +5
WSOC-TV 10/06 - 10/07 500 LV 46 48 McCain +2
SurveyUSA 10/05 - 10/06 617 LV 46 49 McCain +3
CNN/Time 10/03 - 10/06 666 LV 49 49 Tie
PPP (D) 10/04 - 10/05 1202 LV 50 44 Obama +6
RCP Average 10/03 - 10/14 -- 51.8 43.7 Obama +8.1
CNU Virginia Poll 10/11 - 10/14 500 LV 53 47 Obama +6
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 698 LV 53 43 Obama +10
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 50 47 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/06 - 10/07 917 LV 51 43 Obama +8
SurveyUSA 10/04 - 10/05 666 LV 53 43 Obama +10
Suffolk 10/03 - 10/05 600 LV 51 39 Obama +12
RCP Average 09/29 - 10/13 -- 50.7 42.3 Obama +8.4
Rasmussen 10/13 - 10/13 700 LV 55 42 Obama +13
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/13 568 LV 52 45 Obama +7
Albuquerque Journal 09/29 - 10/02 659 LV 45 40 Obama +5
Rasmussen 10/01 - 10/01 700 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Iowa (Will include Sept. since not alot of date for Oct.)
RCP Average 09/18 - 10/09 -- 52.8 41.0 Obama +11.8
SurveyUSA 10/08 - 10/09 692 LV 54 41 Obama +13
Research 2000 09/29 - 09/30 600 LV 55 39 Obama +16
Rasmussen 09/25 - 09/25 700 LV 51 43 Obama +8
Marist 09/18 - 09/21 467 LV 51 41 Obama +10
North Dakota (Yes, NORTH DAKOTA)
North Dakota United Transportation Union (D) 10/13-14/08 504 LV 41 44 12 - 3 +3D
MSU/The Forum 10/6-8/08 606 LV 43 45 12 - - +2D
Could somoeone show me how McCain can win this election?
undecideds will break quite decisively for obama i imagine...chuck todd says that obamas team anticipates undecideds breaking against obama 70/30
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:53 AM
I hope you're correct. I'd love to see some analysis of what undecideds tend to do
The other big issue will be turnout, and how accurate the LV models of the pollsters are.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:55 AM
You've been asking that same question for 3 days now and not a single one of them can give you an even somewhat plausible scenario.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:56 AM
So this morning Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright and I were having breakfest together when Keith Olberman walks in and says to us we only have 18 days left to fool the average Joe, what I have said too much.
undecideds will break quite decisively AGAINST obama*
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:57 AM
Just an idle thought, but it should be noted that undecided can actually break any of three ways on Election Day: voting for Obama, voting for McCain, or not voting for either (which mostly means not voting, but also a few voting for third parties).
And assuming the conventional wisdom is correct and the undecideds are disproportionately disaffected McCain supporters, that is actually a fairly crucial point--given Obama's lead among decideds, it isn't enough for McCain to keep his disaffected undecideds from voting for Obama. Rather, he really needs them to actually show up at the polls.
"chuck todd says that obamas team anticipates undecideds breaking against obama 70/30"
That is correct and they are not depending on those undecideds to go 50/50. Trust me when I tell you.. Obama is not "tapped out," nor is he low on cash, and he has SEVERAL aces in the hole to try to seal the deal. He is not going to try to run out the clock and hope for the best. There will be action here in FL and OH over the next few weeks that should be interesting. The Obama volunteer army is just getting into gear.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:58 AM
Looks like the Rasmussen polls in Colorado aren't going to look very good today. The RNSC has decided to pull out their financial support there. Since McCain has been piggy-backing on the support of Senate candidates (because of his funding limitations) this is looking more and more like a lost cause.
If a conservative pollster like Rasmussen has Obama up by 6 in Missouri who cares what the trackers say.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:59 AM
I'm looking at the recent polls for MO listed on RCP starting with the +1 CNN poll at the end of September:
Rasmussen 10/15 - 10/15 700 LV 52 46 Obama +6
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 763 LV 48 49 McCain +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 50 47 Obama +3
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/12 546 LV 51 43 Obama +8
PPP (D) 10/11 - 10/12 1009 LV 48 46 Obama +2
ARG 10/04 - 10/06 600 LV 46 49 McCain +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 50 47 Obama +3
CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 744 LV 49 48 Obama +1
There have been 8 polls of which 6 show an Obama lead. One of the two showing a McCain lead is from unreliable ARG. The other is a CNN poll showing McCain with only a one point lead.
It certainly looks like Obama has a small lead in MO. Truly shocking. McCain supporters should be very worried.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:00 AM
Hatred is a weak tool to get your people to the polls. Especially when it's based on lies.
If Palin mentions one name in a stump speech, the Obama campaign will need three days to recover. The name... us your imagination.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:01 AM
EXCLUDING THE ALWAYS BIZARRE HOTLINE:
Rasmussen Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 3000 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 1210 LV 49 44 Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/12 - 10/16 800 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/13 - 10/15 2143 LV 49 47 Obama +2
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/11 - 10/15 825 LV 45 42 Obama +3
WE are dangerously close with NO post-debate Obama-bounce and further tightening to come as the election approaches and the electorate moves right.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:04 AM
It makes sense that the NRSC would pull out, since Udall is running away with the contest and other Republican Senate candidates are in dire need of resources. But I have to assume McCain at least isn't giving up on Colorado (meaning if necessary he will shift resources to compensate), because that is effectively giving up on the entire election (with Kerry + Iowa, NM, and Colorado giving Obama the win).
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:06 AM
Dow just went positive and is surging right now.
I will go with "Romney", with the context being something like ". . . to spend more time with my family, and being replaced by Mitt Romney as . . . ."
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:09 AM
HERE'S THE THING:
These are dangerous times. Obama is untested in the extreme. He has NO executive experience other than overseeing Annenburg and that was an unmitigated failure.
If the primaries are any indication, people move from style to substance as it comes time to really vote. Obama didn;t only get beat down the stretch vs Hillary, he got SLAUGHTERED.
I think there is a good chance undecided's will break hard to McCain down th stretch. We'll see. It's been a weird season - anything can happen.
If the name you're thinking of is Rev Wright, Palin would never be foolish enough to bring that up. Everyone has seen the videos of her getting blessed by the witch hunter.
boomshak how's the electoral college looking? IDIOT. LOL
Wow, you red posters sure clam up when asked about the elecoral college. Keep crowing about the popular vote gains. I've been saying for months that Obama's cieling in this election is 50%-52%, for no other reason than there's still too many people who simply won't vote for an AA on principal. So, yes I agree that undecideds will break dramatically for McCain and the popular vote win for Obama will be right around 50%.
However, can any of you McCain supports please outline how he wins the electoral college? Anyone? Wow, you guys sure clam up when asked that!
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:10 AM
boom****. Any new predictions? You have a 100% fail rate so they are always fun!
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:11 AM
So you actually compare being prayed for one time by a man at one service to being the disciple of a radical racist mentor for 20 years?
No wonder you support Obama, you have no higher brain function.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:12 AM
I'd love to read ONE INTELLIGENT post on a path ELECTORALLY for McCain. I h ave never read ONE and this is a pollster website. Cmon' guys! Give it to me. Show me the #'s.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:13 AM
Actually, I don't factor anyone's religion into how I vote. That goes for Obama's and Palin's. They could both be Hindu, and I wouldn't care.
But Wright will never be mentioned because not only would the witch hunter be brought up, but so would all of the other Christian pastors on the right that have made questionable statements.
Finally, I have never made the proclamation that I support Obama.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:18 AM
How do you feel about McCain's relationship with G. Liddy? The man who said this - ""Now if the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms comes to disarm you and they are bearing arms, resist them with arms. Go for a head shot; they're going to be wearing bulletproof vests. ... Kill the sons of bitches."
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:19 AM
boom, you are the only one drinking your own mixed kool-aid.
538 gives McSame 5.3% chances of winning. And that's a stretch
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:22 AM
Still waiting on electoral discussion from the right. YAWN. PUSSYS.
Regarding linked Politico article: I guess one needs to pay careful attention.
"Sen. Barack Obama holds leads in four key counties that will go a long way toward determining the eventual winner in four important swing states — Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia — according to a new Politico/Insider Advantage survey...
In Ohio’s Franklin County, the state’s second-most populous county after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, Obama leads by a narrower 45 percent to 40 percent margin. Kerry carried Franklin County 54 percent to 45 percent in 2004."
First: Obama is behind Kerry's lead in Franklin County, Ohio.
Second: Kerry lost Ohio to Bush.
So how does this translate to Obama winning Ohio?
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:26 AM
still an rcp average of 6.8... still hovering around 50%... still leading by a lot in electoral votes, but mccains got him right where he wants him!
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:27 AM
"Dow just went positive and is surging right now."
I like the frequent use of the word "surging"!
Unless McCain continues to surge it looks like Obama could win, you have to admit that.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:28 AM
Still nothing from the red posters on the electoral college, huh? Well, how about if I get you started. Your guy absolutely must flip VA back to red, or it's over. He should stay at one of his nine houses in VA and not leave until he's back to at least even. Then, get over to MO where that red state is falling further and further behind. You'll have to roll the dice on CO. It's even now, so you can't afford to spend any resources there. You can skip OH and FL - they somehow went for Bush twice (kind of anyway), so you're probably safe there. Besides, your ACORN scare tactics in OH will probably successfully purge the voter rolls of 200,000+ valid registrations. However, better head back to IN - and ND - and WV.
So there's a starting plan for you. Discuss...
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:30 AM
Research 2000 FL Obama +4
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:32 AM
Undecideds: Traditionally, undecideds break in favor of the challenger and in opposition to the incumbent. If you assume McCain to represent the incumbent party, then traditional breakage would favor Obama. Of course, this is not a traditional election.
My sense is that the undecideds are people who are pretty resistant to voting Obama, but are also very unenthusiastic about McCain. If this is true, then I would have to agree with DTM that the most likely outcome is a very low participation rate among the undecideds, coupled with a higher-than-average break in favor of TP candidates (go Barr!)
My sense is also that the "undecideds" are the bulk of the "Bradley Factor" voters. As others have stated, 50% is the holy grail for Obama, and if he can manage to hold it -- which looks highly probable to the money guys at Intrade (84%) -- then he is the winner by a relatively wide margin.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:33 AM
My sense is that the undecideds are people who are pretty resistant to voting Obama, but are also very unenthusiastic about McCain
I completely agree there. I'll add that with the state of the economy, eight years of Bush in-general, picking a hillbilly-half-wit as is running mate - if Undecideds have not gone to Obama yet, then few probably will. We'll have to win the popular vote by a smaller margin, but the electoral college should be comfortable.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:40 AM
Regarding any of McCain's former and present relationships, he does not try to underplay or hide such. And that is McCain's argument. Why was not Obama more forthcoming when people asked questions about Ayers and Acorn? Obama could have put those issues to rest with a full disclosure.
McCain's strategy = pattern has emerged that Obama is not always truthful and transparent.
Makes sense if one remembers Obama dancing around his relationships with Wright and Rezko. Slowly the truth is revealed, pulling a bandaid off very slowly. It hurts more as it drags out over a longer period of time.
So today, Joe, who said he makes much less than $250,000, reluctantly admitted Obama would lower his taxes.
"I would, if you believe him, I would be receiving his tax cuts," Wurzelbacher said.
The facts - as even the reluctant to bother actually doing reporting Corporate Media have revealed - are that: Joe The Plumber only makes 40,000 a year, doesn't have a valid plumbers license in the state of Ohio, has only been a "plumber" for 6 years - not 15, has never finished his plumber courses, has never apprenticed as a plumber, can't afford to buy his bosses business - which only generates $100,000 a year in income, not $250,000 - is a registered republican who owes over a $1,000 in back taxes, and under any version of Obama's plan would get a tax cut that would be larger than McCain's.
lol, what a joke. Do Republicans feel that it is their responsibility to lie to the American people on a daily basis?
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:44 AM
"I hope you're correct. I'd love to see some analysis of what undecideds tend to do"
As far as I know, they tend to lean to the challenger. This time around, that could be either party.
kip tin, even people on fox news are now saying that its most likely too late for your theory of the slow bandaid pull off. obama is too far ahead and those attacks dont have a huge enough effect of independents. of course republicans are eating it up, but who cares? besides that, obama may have downplayed his relationship with certain people, but there is no evidence at all that the relationships he had were not innocent. by the way its already been debunked that obama started his political career in ayers living room. he announced he was running for the senate in a hotel lobby, and did a series of house parties all across his neighborhood... one of those homes happened to be ayer's.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:46 AM
It appears that orange24 agrees with Obama's "bitter" comments. Different words, same ignorant attitude calling someone from a rural state "hillbilly-half-wit."
Traditionally, undecideds break in favor of NOT voting for one-party rule. It appears that these voters like the political parties who keep each other in check.
McCain can win these voters with his higher tax/bigger government (Obama/Pelosi/Reid) message.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:53 AM
"So how does this translate to Obama winning Ohio?"
Context, idiot niTpiK. Context.
Senator Obama has the Kerry states (251 Electoral College votes) plus New Mexico (5 EC votes) plus Iowa (7 EC votes) for a total of 263 EC votes. For the math challenged (and that seems to be most of the neo-con, Reichwingers who post here), that means he's 7 EC votes shy of the necessary 270 to win. If Senator Obama wins ANY ONE of Colorado (9 EC votes), Virginia (13 EC votes), Florida (27 EC votes), North Carolina (15 EC votes) or Missouri (11 EC votes) (all states in which Pollster.com says he's leading), Senator Obama does not need Ohio to win the Electoral College.
McLameBrain can keep Ohio red and he still loses UNLESS he sweeps every other state (excepting Nevada OR North Dakota).
What's the odds of a Royal Flush when you keep the Ace and draw four? Better odds than McShame has of winning this election in the Electoral College, I'd bet.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:54 AM
Sorry but McCain admitting he is a friend and supports a guy like Libby is a major concern to me in regards to his character. I will give him credit for being honest about it but it does not dismiss the fact that he "pals" around with some of this scum.
Of course Obama hasn't been substantively misleading about his relationship with Ayers. But this notion is just a cover story for McCain, who wants to be able to claim to broader audiences that he doesn't really care about this stuff and it isn't what his campaign is really about.
In fact, though, you can look at things like McCain's ads and robocalls to understand what McCain is really trying to do: the constant suggestion is that Obama has been working with terrorists to do something nefarious. Again, though, McCain knows that if those messages get to a broader audience, they will backfire. So, he says one thing in his ads and robocalls, and another thing to broader audiences, and hopes he can get away with it.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:55 AM
I did not have a "theory" but rather was responding to the difference between McCain and Obama relationships.
BTW: Raising doubt about the other candidate is always part of political strategy (e.g. Obama calling McCain erratic). Why Obama did not quickly dispose of these lingering questions about Ayers and Acorn is beyond my understanding. Just look at what you wrote... you are still defending Obama at this late date, thus proving my initial argument.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:00 PM
McCain speaks at ACORN conference 2.20.2006.
McShame - time for YOU to come clean with some of the past associations YOU have had.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:02 PM
Uh, McCain admitted to being a friend of the SON of G. Gordon Liddy (not Libby). Assuming the son is scum and getting the name/person wrong is based on your total ignorance.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:04 PM
So ridiculous trying to "associate" McCain with ACORN because Obama was the one who did not fully disclose his relationship with ACORN. Maybe if ACORN registration fraud involved Republicans, there would be a relevant link. Too bad ACORN is not truly "non-partisan" as advertised.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:08 PM
I support Obama but agree I would have liked to see a more open approach to some of these relationships. However the fact is McCain has been a politician for many many years and it is naive to believe he has not had a substantial amount of questionable relationships himself - heck Regan's "pals" were "palling" around with Ayres. Also I find it a bit ironic that a man that cheated on his crippled wife would be questioning another person about trust.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:10 PM
TRULY BEYOND BELIEF:
High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute
Oct 17 11:50 AM US/Eastern
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Supreme Court is siding with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations.
The justices on Friday overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio's top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility.
Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, faced a deadline of Friday to set up a system to provide local officials with names of newly registered voters whose driver's license numbers or Social Security numbers on voter registration forms don't match records in other government databases.
Ohio Republicans contended the information for counties would help prevent fraud. Brunner said the GOP is trying to disenfranchise voters.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:11 PM
boom**** said (at 11:06 AM)...
"Dow just went positive and is surging right now."
And at 12:07, the Dow is now at 8936.01, or DOWN by 43.25.
Great big, sustained, SURGE, isn't it?
This is not to say that the Dow will end the day in positive or negative territory. You can't state with a straight face that it is 'surging' since it WAS in positive territory, but now is in negative territory AGAIN.
AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...
They give Democrats an obscene 16 point weighting advantage and STILL Obama only leads by 2.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:13 PM
Well... Mike In Maryland... I asked a specific question ""So how does this translate to Obama winning Ohio?"
YOU DID NOT ANSWER THE QUESTION. Yet you feel free to call me an "idiot?"
Yes, Mike in Maryland... you are the real IDIOT for illustrating your severe lack of reading comprehension as well as not being able to answer a simple question.
BTW: How is calling me names a winning argument? It only shows your flaccid mind to be impotent in refutation.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:18 PM
Show everyone the path that John Sydney McCain II has to winning the Electoral College vote.
McLameBrain can win Ohio, but if he doesn't win 270 EC votes, he doesn't win the election.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:23 PM
IF MCCAIN HAS A BRAIN:
He will use this SCOTUS decision and say, "People, you like this SCOTUS decision that makes voter fraud legal in OH? Just elect Barack Obama and give liberals absolute power in Washington and you'll get this times 10!"
Please John, USE this.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:24 PM
Ohio's Secretary of State Brunner (Democrat) is making former Secretary of State Blackwell look not so bad, eh?
Well, Ohio voters are not so confident these days. According to Rasmussen's latest Ohio poll:
--Only 53% of Ohio voters are now Very Confident that the votes will be properly counted and the right candidate declared the victor.
--Forty-five (45%) say people who shouldn’t be allowed to vote are likely to vote on Election Day. Just 28% say it’s more likely that some who are eligible will be denied the chance to vote.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:26 PM
For further info on Supreme Court order re Ohio:
Breaking News: Supreme Court Stays Sixth Circuit Decision
"You can find the two page ruling here. Justice Stevens referred the stay application to the Court, and the Court, without dissent, agreed that a stay was in order because the lower courts erred in concluding that the ORP is likely to prevail on its legal argument that section 303 of HAVA (the section requiring state chief election officials to perform matches of their data with motor vehicle department data) creates a private right of action. In other words, it looks like individuals cannot sue for violations of this aspect of HAVA; it would fall to the DOJ to bring such suit.
What is the upshot of this ruling? It means that the Secretary need not provide the "no match" data to the county boards, and therefore the ORP won't be able to make its public information requests to get the data to raise voter challenges at the polls."
Overall, this may not directly impact many actual votes already cast; will DOJ have the nerve, after past history, to "chase" Brunner?
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:27 PM
"AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%..."
boomer going by Internet polls now?
"The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanelSM, a probability-based Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone to participate in the webenabled KnowledgePanelSM. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, Knowledge Networks provides at no cost an Internet appliance and Internet service connection. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research."
boomer now going with a poll that is OUT OF DATE?
The starting date on the poll was October 3 -- two weeks ago -- and left the field on October 13, which was this Monday.
boomie - we KNOW you spin, spin, and spin. But this one is beyond pathetic.
BTW - Nate has a write-up on the 'poll' at 538.com.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:29 PM
Mike In Maryland... I asked specifically about Ohio and you continue to deflect to YOUR QUESTION. You are not capable of a serious discussion. All I can expect from you is more name-calling.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:30 PM
And your continued need to call boomshak by the derogatory term "boom****" only further proves that you are incapable of any civil or intelligent comment.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:33 PM
@Mike In Maryland:
Lol, if anything, Obama was FURTHER AHEAD in other polls when this poll was taken.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:34 PM
As I noted before, the KnowledgePanel poll is not designed as a horserace poll, but it is quite useful for tracking other issues. Again, here is the link:
You can also click through to a PDF of all the data and judge for yourself, but as the roundup states:
"People's regard for the Republican presidential nominee has deteriorated across-the-board since September, an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll showed Friday, with McCain losing ground in how favorably he's seen and in a long list of personal qualities voters seek in White House contenders. Perceptions of Obama have improved or remained steady."
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:36 PM
DEMOCRAT VOTER FRAUD RUN AMOK: NOW THERE'S PROOF!
28 Out of 92 Cast Votes in NM Democratic Primary Appear Fake, Including 'Duran Duran'
Over at Tapped, A. Serwer, fresh off calling me a racist for saying that Gwen Ifill should not have moderated the debate because she didn't tell the Commission on Presidential Debates about her book on "The Age of Obama," declares that I am paranoid, too.
He writes, "there isn't a single instance of organized voter fraud that Geraghty can actually point to, despite being up in arms about it. That's "paranoia"."
Today, news out of New Mexico, the state GOP looked at information for 92 newly-registered voters in one district, and found 28 had "missing or inaccurate Social Security numbers or birth dates. In some cases, more than one voter was registered using the same Social Security number. In others, people who the Republicans said had no Social Security number on public record were registered." All of these are of individuals who have already cast ballots in the June New Mexico state legislative Democratic primary.
Now, unless A. Serwer thinks that there is actually a registered voter named "Duran Duran" in New Mexico, he ought to refrain from sputtering that those who disagree with him are 'racist' and 'paranoid.'
The person who is "Duran Duran" almost certainly voted under their real name, and thus got two votes in the primary. God knows how many of those 27 others exist; for all we know, one person might have cast all of them. Anybody who voted once had their vote diluted by the guy who cheated to vote two to twenty-seven times.
Hey, guess who was out registering voters in this district before the primary? Aw, you saw this coming - ACORN. The same group running into legal troubles in thirteen other states. When you see the same issues coming up with the same group in fourteen different instances, how much more evidence do you need before you conclude that this is "organized voter fraud"?
Beyond that, Serwer deems local election officials as incapable of sorting out what to do when someone is purged erroneously from a voter roll. To these people, it's as if the "provisional ballot" was never invented. Most jurisdictions have their election results certified weeks after Election Day. If you're not on the roll, you fill out the provisional ballot and then demonstrate that you are who you say you are and that you should be on the roll. It gets sorted out, your vote counts. It isn't that hard and happens across the country all the time.
Their argument is that no state authority should be ensuring that voter registration applications match actual people, despite the horror stories of ACORN pestering people to register 27 times, etc. Anyone who shows up at any voting booth should be allowed to cast a vote, whether or not they can demonstrate that they are who they say they are.
Why are these people like this? Why do they put partisan advantage over having a clean election where we're certain nobody voted twice?
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:37 PM
Today's TIPP poll has Obama up 5.3%, compared to 3.6 yesterday.
You, and others, have been asked several times by several different people to show how McShame can win 270 Electoral College votes based on the current state-by-state polling.
When you or anyone else respond to those requests (which have been outstanding for several days now) in an intelligent manner, I will as promptly respond to your request.
Until then, I'll stick with my current response that Senator Obama does not need to win the EC votes from Ohio to win the Electoral College vote, but McLameBrain needs to sweep the board with wins in all the 2004 Bush states minus Iowa and New Mexico (and/or Nevada OR North Dakota).
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:38 PM
John McCain ""I know Gordon Liddy. He paid his debt, he went to prison.... I'm not in any was embarrassed to know Gordon Liddy."
McCain went on his radio show. Liddy greeted him as "an old friend," and McCain said "I'm proud of you, I'm proud of your family." "It's always a pleasure for me to come on your program, Gordon, and congratulations on your continued success and adherence to the principles and philosophies that keep our nation great."
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:42 PM
Hi Boom and Kip,
You should check out the most accurate pollster!
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:49 PM
If you want to see something absolutely hysterical, and yet kind of pathetic, check out the following yahoo poll page:
click on the "create your own scenario", tab, then click on Gingrich's personal scenario. You'd have to believe in the tooth fairy and the end of machiadoras under a republican house/senate/administration to buy this one.
I love the smell of right-wing desperation in the morning.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:55 PM
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:01 PM
Gallup +1 for Obama RV
Both LVs steady
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:04 PM
GALLUP HOLDS STEADY AT +2%
"Debate having little to no effect..."
Gallup's likely voter scenarios show differing patterns. If turnout in this year's election follows traditional patterns by which the voting electorate skews towards those who usually vote as well as those who are interested in this year's election, the race is a close one, with Obama holding on to a two percentage point margin, 49% to 47%...
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:07 PM
RV's meaningless at this point. At this point, I think Gallup is the only one still measuring them.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:09 PM
but boom, don't follow gallup, follow TIPP, the most accurate pollster you've been RAVING about all week.
lol! McCain is surging...downwards.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:11 PM
Um, what polls are you looking at? Hotline is the ONLY poll McCain is NOT surging in.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:14 PM
TIPP is right in line with everyone else, about +5 Obama.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:15 PM
um, boom, are you dumb? TIPP went from +2 Obama at the start of the week to +5 today. Obama's lead is growing in TIPP.
Are you so biased that you are rewriting math?
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:18 PM
boom, just reporting the three results.
Why did you cut off the rest of the paragraph from Gallup: "If a much higher than usual proportion of new voters turn out, thus increasing the potential impact of groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities, Obama has a six-point lead, 51% to 45%."
No one is actually using the "traditional" LV numbers (including RCP), and indeed Gallup itself would hardly have introduced the new model if they thought their old one was accurate, yes?
Stop trying to spin the numbers, it doesn't do your cause any good at all.
In any case, the five-tracker average will go up for Obama on today's figures.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:19 PM
"Um, what polls are you looking at? Hotline is the ONLY poll McCain is NOT surging in."
And every statewide poll. But those don't matter right?
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:22 PM
boom, are you dumb? do you need me to explain to you why going from -2 to -5 is NOT a surge?
I am glad that you are revising with Johncoz's.
We are agreed then that the likely Obama lead is around +5% at the moment with a bit of tightening through McCain improving his number and Obama coming down from his highs of 52/53 to 50%.
All to play for.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:26 PM
"28 Out of 92 Cast Votes in NM Democratic Primary Appear Fake, Including 'Duran Duran'"
Give me a break - they pick out a piddly 28 voter cards that were obviously filled out by morons (yes they exist in both parties) and call this VOTER FRAUD?!?
You're going to get no argument from me that the elections officials also seem like morons for not vetting these registrations better, but come ON! This is part of the national GOP effort to delegitimize this election because they are losing. Watch November 5th as the Republican party suddenly after years of pushing voting machines and purging voter rolls, had voter fraud as their #1 issue. I would not be surprised if we get a SCOTUS case out of it by years end.
I love how you republicans are suddenly all up in arms screaming voter-fraud. where the f*** were you in 2004 when there were enough inconsistencies and problems with the vote in Ohio to make the accepted results look like the product of magic?
Republicans are focusing on the wrong issue. There simply is NO EVIDENCE THAT THERE IS widespread voter fraud by INDIVIDUAL VOTERS! GET RID OF ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES!
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:36 PM
GO BACK TO THAT REPORT YOU CUT AND PASTED - there's an update:
"UPDATE: I am floored by the fact that the white pages for Albuquereque, New Mexico has a listing for "Duran Duran." Mea culpa."
whether or not Geraghty is being sincere in his 'mea culpa' - this still makes me laugh
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:44 PM
"I wasn't laughing at the poster's comments. I was agreeing with with him/her. I can read."
Perhaps not very well, then; the poster was me.
As for interpretation, I post a summary, graph and analysis each morning. Judge for yourself.
Posted on October 17, 2008 2:23 PM
Whoops, wrong board :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 2:44 PM
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