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US: Obama 50, McCain 41 (LABloom-10/10-13)

Topics: PHome

Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg
10/10-13/08; 1,030 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(story, results)

National
Obama 50, McCain 41

 

Comments
Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

The only way for McCain to avoid a landslide defeat is to hold early elections

woot!

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Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

Obama should tell McCain tonight:

you took a break for your campaign to supposedly work on the economy
but you just took a break from the economy to smear me!

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JCK:

Yikes. These polls showing an 8-11 point advantage for Obama just keep coming.

If this keeps up through election day, we'll be seeing a landslide.

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BOOMFAIL:

I see 9 points (or above) is becoming more and more common. Polls will most likely average out in the low double digits by this time next week.

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GeorgeHusseinBush:

CNN Polls released:

Colorado:
Obama: 51
McCain: 47

Florida:
Obama: 51
McCain: 46

Georgia:
Obama: 43
McCain: 55

Missouri
Obama: 48
McCain: 49

Virginia:
Obama: 53
McCain: 43

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BOOMFAIL:
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raisethewhiteflag:

boomcrack

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chesirecat47:

@George
53M
45O
In Georgia

Otherwise seems about right. Colorado's tightening a bit but Obama still has a significant lead. Doesn't matter if he's up 10 in VA!

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Here is a link to the CNN polls. I think its also available now on the Pollster front page.

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Adam:

@GHB:

VA numbers look good. And that's all we need.

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zoot:

Jesse Jackson opened his big mouth again on the Israel-Palestinian dispute, so I'd watch the FL numbers over the next few days. (I am deliberately not delving into the rights and wrongs of that intractable situation, just making a political observation, so let's not wander into arguing who shot John.)McCain immediately jumped on that. Probably too late in the game to do much except peel away a few votes, but not helpful at all.

Obama was both restrained and wise not to get into a public argument with that fool.

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mysticlaker:

OMG! OMG!

Obama is only up by +4 in Colorado...and down by 8 in GA. OMG!

Missouri, that's where the action is going to be soon. McCain is screwed. How does he go and try to defend all these states?

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

I didn't think he would sustain any lead in CO for this long. McCain's chances are about as good as Hillary's were after the Potomac Primaries.

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burrito:

This is great news for Obama in Virginia!! Virginia should go blue very soon!!

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

They definitely show at least show VA as Leaning Obama after this.

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BarackO'Clinton:

It's over.


VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!!

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maddiekat:

zoot

Jackson doesn't have anything to do with Obama. As you recall he said he wanted to cut his nuts off.This is just another sign that all McLiar has left is one desperate attempt after another.

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Trosen:

The VA #s are stunning. McCain can not lose VA and have any chance. I don't think CO is as close as this poll indicates. I don't think the Jessee Jackson stuff will have much effect in FL. Obama has smartly kept his distance form the "good reverend."

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RussTC3:

Latest CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls.

Colorado, 10/11-14 (9/21-23)
Obama 51 (51)
McCain 47 (47)
n/c, no swing

Florida, 10/11-14 (9/28-30)
Obama 51 (51)
McCain 46 (47)
n/c Obama, -1 McCain = 1pt Swing for Obama

Georgia, 10/11-14 (no trendline)
Obama 53
McCain 45

Missouri, 10/11-14 (9/28-30)
McCain 49 (48)
Obama 48 (49)
+1 McCain, -1 Obama = 2pt Swing for McCain

Virginia, 10/11-14 (9/28-30)
McCain 53 (53)
Obama 43 (44)
n/c Obama, -1 McCain = 1pt Swing for Obama

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JCK:

If VA goes blue, McCain is basically done.

At this point, Obama appears to be leading in OH, CO, FL, VA. Any one of those states is probably enough by itself to Obama above 270.

McCain has to win all four of those states, plus will have to defend, NC, IN, MO, NV, and WV(!).

McCain has no realistic state-by-state path to victory; he will have to change the tenor of the race nationally.

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BOOMFAIL:

One thing to keep in mind about Virginia. It will be one of the 1st states to close the polls and therefor release results to the networks. Other states out west will still be voting. If news hits on election night that Virginia is big for Obama, watch out for the remaining of the evening voting out west!

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RussTC3:

Darn it. The Georgia numbers are reversed. Here they are corrected:

Georgia, 10/11-14 (no trendline)
McCain 53
Obama 45

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thoughtful:

this race should have at least started to tighten and it's not.

There seems to be a realignment occurring nationally and then onto States regionally.

Where does McCain draw a line and defend.

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jeepdad:

Iowa + Virginia + Kerry states wins the election for Obama. It's his easiest path to victory right now. Unless McCain can seriously damage Obama in these last 20 days, I'm not sure how Obama loses.

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fed:

If the media projects Obama as the winner in VA right after the polls close, I would get worried that people in NV, NM and CO don´t go out to vote thinking Obama won the election

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pbcrunch:

It says a lot that CNN is no spending money on polling GA. Who would have thought that state was even contestable two months ago?

I'm curious what Rasmussen's battleground polls are going to be next week... he essentially conceded that McCain is screwed in the ones he polled this week.

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BOOMFAIL:

@thoughtful
I see this election similar to 1980, when the independents and undecideds broke strongly towards one candidate at the end (Reagan), once they were comfortable with him. That is what has happened after the debates and daily events this year. Obama looks presidential, calm, reassuring, intelligent, etc. and has passed the test of being Commander in Chief. I may be wrong, but my gut tells me things will not tighten in the weeks ahead, and more likely firm up a bit more towards Obama.

Landslide Baby Landslide

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raisethewhiteflag:

boomcrack?

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Trosen:

fed, as I understand that, the major networks have agreed not to do that. They might very well say, "Well, it looks like this one's about over," but apparently they now refrain from "calling" the election too early for fear they'll discourage people on the west coast from going to the polls.

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Mike A.:

I think the more likely option if Barack is winning the states in the east early on is for the Republicans to stay home out west. It happened with Reagan/Carter in 80.

A note to those who argue ook what happened in the last 10 days with Reagan overcoming Carter's lead. Like Karen Hughes on CNN last night --- that is because there was one debate then and Reagan won. I believe it was Oct 25.

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jade2002:

Please check out these attempts by republicans in CA
http://buzzword101.com/bw/2008/10/15/desperate-times-call-for-desperate-measures-part-ii/

I love pollster.com and I am glad to see obama still in the lead

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fed:

540000 people have voted in Gergia , 37% AA

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thoughtful:

@Boomfail

We are now getting close to a 9%! average in the national polls.

395+EVs

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RussTC3:

And...my Virginia number is reversed as well. ugh. Here it is corrected.

Virginia, 10/11-14 (9/28-30)
Obama 53 (53)
McCain 43 (44)

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Disco Stu:

As far as good 'ol Jesse goes:
I don't see him having much effect on the Jewish vote....he's made plenty of anti-semitic statements in the past, and speaking as a Jew, he's a schmuck!

As far as voting effects go:
By the time easter polls close, most people will have voted across the country. The only battleground in the PST is Nevada, CA, WA and OR are solid blue, so I don't think there's any potential for a signficant effect.

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thoughtful:

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama continuing to lead John McCain, now by seven percentage points among registered voters, 50% to 43%.

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mirrorball:

I'm sure the nets will refrain from calling the race before 11 p.m. eastern time (when most of the West Coast polls close), but if most of those yellow states go to Obama, I wonder how they'll handle that. They usually will call individual states as they close.

But as those yellow states come in, Obama would be pretty close to at or over 270, if you assume all the other states break as predicted. But at the same time if most of those yellow states are close, then they'll stick with "too close to call" for a few hours.

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boomshak:

GALLUP LEAD COLLAPSES TO +3 AMONG LIKELY VOTERS!

"The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, though with Obama still ahead. Today's results show Obama with a three-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 46%. That is slightly closer than the average five-point advantage for Obama among traditional likely voters since Gallup began measuring them last week.

Wow!

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BOOMFAIL:

@Trosen:
"fed, as I understand that, the major networks have agreed not to do that. They might very well say, "Well, it looks like this one's about over," but apparently they now refrain from "calling" the election too early for fear they'll discourage people on the west coast from going to the polls."

The networks will release results as each state closes. Virgina closes at 7 P.M. Eastern, which is quite early IMO. see below (skip the 1st 40 seconds or so)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWzBUsRNHHs

@Mike A.:
"I think the more likely option if Barack is winning the states in the east early on is for the Republicans to stay home out west. It happened with Reagan/Carter in 80."

Agreed!

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thoughtful:

Gallup +3 LV1; +8 LV2; +7RV

Its all fun and games

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zotz:

It is obvious that Jackson is pissed about Obama displacing him as the most prominent black political leader. Knowing Jesse, deliberate sabotage is his probable motive.

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maddiekat:

Boomcrap

Obama leads by 8 with the LV expanded version and 7 with RV..Wow

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boomshak:

@maddiekat:

Boomcrap

Obama leads by 8 with the LV expanded version and 7 with RV..Wow

The "expanded" version is HIGHLY SUSPECT and untried.

As usual, this race is tightening into the close.

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NW Patrick:

Boom**** finds the silver living hoping that past voter patterns hold this election, unlikely, yet his candidate STILL loses by a greater margin than Kerry did.:)

FAIL.

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mysticlaker:

Enjoy your cherry picking boom...Gallup said it themselves with one good night of polling on Tuesday for McCain.

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NW Patrick:

1 indicator out of 3 from ONE pollster and boom**** says the "race is tightening". LOL I kinda feel sorry for him.

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Trosen:

boomfail, That assumes that as soon as polls close, the exit polls show a decisive victory. If it's within 4/5 points, they'll wait to tabulate most, if not all of the votes. If the spread is really 10 in VA like the CNN poll says (and I don't think it will be), then they'll call it right away. But I'm guessing we'll be sweating it out.

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NW Patrick:

That CNN VA # is just amazing. +10 wow. Boom**** FAIL. FL +5 wow. McCain's in trouble!

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Mike A.:

Boomshack. You cannot say this race is tightening! You are not in touch with reality. If it was other polls would be showing it. Take a statistics course or two like I have. Natural fluctuations are normal but not over all these polls!

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boomshak:

HERE'S WHAT YOU GUYS DON'T GET ABOUT GALLUP. IT IS SHOWING A HUGE MOVE TO MCCAIN!

YESTERDAY:
Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/11 - 10/13 2140 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* 10/11 - 10/13 2289 LV 53 43 Obama +10

TODAY:
Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/12 - 10/14 2140 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* 10/12 - 10/14 2289 LV 52 44 Obama +8

To get a 2 point movement in a 3 day tracking poll, you need to have some heavy movement in the underlying poll.

This is HUGE 3 weeks out. Instead of pulling away, Obama is collapsing.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak and what about the other 17 or so polls? I'm confused.

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

Zogby tightened by 2 and Gallup tightened by 3 in one day. That is MASSIVE movement. Remember, Obama is supposed to be running away with this.

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Mike A.:

Boomshak you are losing it :)

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mirrorball:

Boomshak: So, tomorrow if the Gallup numbers swing two or three points the other way tomorrow, you won't come back here and say "well, that's just one day. It doesn't count as a trend," will you?

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Trosen:

It is interesting that Gallup seems to be the only poll that has seemingly "tightened" over the past week (and maybe Ras a tiny bit too) while all the others have shown an expanding lead for Obama. either way, the averages and trends have held.

As for boom, let him cherry pick his Gallup RV and get all hot and bothered. That would be like me jumping up and down over the latest CBS/NYT +14 Obama and using that as the one and only barometer. Of course I'm objective and rational, so I don't do that. but let him have his fun.

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political_junki:

boomshak:
BOOM: How many massive movements did you discover last week alone? ZOBY tightened by 2 but it is still better than 2 days ago. I understand you want to grasp every straw but try to talk less, that way you will sound like less of a fool...

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boomshak:

HUGE, HUGE, HUGE DAY FOR MCCAIN:

The two top polls in America, Rasmussen and Gallup show this a 3-5 point race among traditional likelies!

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/07 - 10/14 -- 49.8 42.5 Obama +7.3
Rasmussen Tracking 10/12 - 10/14 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking 10/12 - 10/14 1210 LV 48 44 Obama +4
Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/12 - 10/14 2160 LV 49 46 Obama +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/07 - 10/13 825 LV 45 42 Obama +3

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fed:

But, eventhough gallup is closing, what it shows is McCain going up and Obama more or less stable at over 50%

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Pat:

@boomshak,

Don't get too excited. Remember it is Wednesday. With a few exceptions, Gallup always tightens around Wednesday.

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political_junki:

@boom:
"This is HUGE 3 weeks out. Instead of pulling away, Obama is collapsing."
Every idiot knows, 3 weeks out things tend to tighten not pull away...

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boomshak:

@political_junki:

If I were you, I would worry. I think these polls are reflecting reaction to Obama's Marxist "spread the wealth around" comment.

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NW Patrick:

Boom****..what did you think of the state polls this week? Tightening? ROFL You're so sad man.

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RussTC3:

So going from +7 to +10 in Gallup over one day was not significant, but doing it in reverse is?

Yeah, ok.

NOISE.

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zoot:

I'd prefer to be wrong about the Jesse Jackson BS. Watch closely to see what happens when McCain raises it tonight, which he will. Most everyone here knows that Jackson is about as close to Obama is as I am to Dick Cheney, but with elderly voters who are slogging through a lot of negative crap to get comfortable with Obama, this is a step backwards, and at the least, leaves Obama in the position of having to explain something rather than talking about issues. A distraction, hopefully nothing more, but FL will be interesting over the next 3-4 days.

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zotz:

Gallup has always been more volatile than Ras. That's why Boom goes on the emotional rollercoster when Gallup numbers vacilate. Of course he knows this but has no self control.

Boom take your damn meds!

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carl29:

Let's make an a weekly update:

Today, 10/15

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45 Obama +5
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Hotline Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground Obama 51 McCain 43
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43


Average: Obama 49.6 McCain 43.2

A WEEK AGO:

Wednesday 10/08

Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Hotline Obama 45 McCain 44
Battleground Obama 49 McCain 45
Gallup* Obama 52 McCain 41

Average: Obama 48.8 McCain 44

*REGISTERED VOTERS because a week ago Gallup did NOT have Likely voters.

=========================================


Using just Ras', Gallup, Zogby

TODAY:

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 44

LAST WEEK: Wednesday 10/08

Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 44.4

There we have the weekly update, my friends :-)


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political_junki:

Worry? Are you kidding me? Obama will win, I dont care with 1% or 5%.
Most of people who are undecided now will be more likely to vote McSame. Which means things will tighten. Which means every day for the next 3 weeks you will get false hope. but on Nov 4, we will have a liberal president liberal congress and liberal senate :)

By the way, I think spreading the wealth is an excellent idea.

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orange24:

The two top polls in America, Rasmussen and Gallup show this a 3-5 point race among traditional likelies!

Good for you! Know What? Obama will still win by a landslide. You keep spreading that BS, though. That's what you're good at.

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boomshak:

WOW!

I am guessing that in order to go from a 6 point lead to a 3 point lead in one day ona tracking poll amongst traditional likelies, this race must have polled either dead tied or McCain ahead last night!

A 3 point one day move in a tracking poll takes a BIG NIGHT OF POLLING to achieve.

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Robi:

Wait wait wait wait boom boom...you're looking to zogby? Also, I thought you didn't think gallup was a credible pollster. You can't change your opinion just because they release a poll that makes you feel better.

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BOOMFAIL:

Whatever makes him feel better about his life. Cherry pick all you want. I choose to look at all the polls, and the best place for this is

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

Left leaning commentary on the site or not, it does NOT change the actual polls that they report, as opposed to say RCP, which similar to boombatty, likes to pick and choose.

Also, interesting fact on 1980 election. Reagan won by about 10 points, 50.75 to Carter's 41.01, but won with 489 EV to 49 EV. While I'm not expecting nearly that much of an electoral landslide, it is telling what a 10 point lead could bring about!

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NW Patrick:

So Obama is up 3 on McCain per Gallop's absolute WORST case scenerio. I'll take it!:)

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boomshak:

@orange24:

Obama's "spread the wealth around" comment will be his undoing.

McCain/Obama must have been dead tied on Gallup last night. Wow.

This will be known as the greatest collapse in the history of politics.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak haven't we heard this song from you before. Then by Sunday the Gallop recovers and you disappear from the post. LOL There is not sign of tigtening in this race. Every day we are pummeled with great STATE polling news for Obama. Your senses are failing you... you must see the light man. It will be healthier for you come Nov. 4th.

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political_junki:

@BOOMSHAK:
"This will be known as the greatest collapse in the history of politics."
Peope like you are the reason conservatism is in such a ****ty shape. You are delusional and prefer to fool yourself instead of accepting things as they are.

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BOOMFAIL:

"This will be known as the greatest collapse in the history of politics."

The little green men are here waiting for you to board the mothership.

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Robi:

boomshak still living in a fantasy land...this last debate will be interesting to see.

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orange24:

Obama's "spread the wealth around" comment will be his undoing.

Keep it coming! Cherry-pick those polls that you twist around to make it a close race. Geez, not even Fixed News is this delusional. Even Limbaugh asked Palin what she was doing after Nov 4th. It wasn't a joke or a putdown - just a concession from the biggest (literally) republican out there. Anyway, keep plucking those one or two polls that don't show this a blowout. We'll stick with the 20 that reflect the landslide this has become.

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carl29:

Let's make an a weekly update:

Today, 10/15

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45 Obama +5
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Hotline Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground Obama 51 McCain 43
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43


Average: Obama 49.6 McCain 43.2

A WEEK AGO:

Wednesday 10/08

Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Hotline Obama 45 McCain 44
Battleground Obama 49 McCain 45
Gallup* Obama 52 McCain 41

Average: Obama 48.8 McCain 44

*REGISTERED VOTERS because a week ago Gallup did NOT have Likely voters.

=========================================


Using just Ras', Gallup, Zogby

TODAY:

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 44

LAST WEEK: Wednesday 10/08

Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 44.4

There we have the weekly update, my friends :-)


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thoughtful:

Right I have it as 395EVs.

@Boomshak hate to disappoint you, and I presume you have voted in NC. the fact is that we have had a huge reversal in the early voting pattern by ALL polling reports.

This very much suggests that Gallup's LV2 is the correct model. Otherwise why have it?

Boom, old buddy, just think you will have Obama to blame or thank for your misery over the next 4 years.

I'd like to think you will be supporting him in 2012!

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ericsp28:

How about showing a little intellectual honesty and not cherry pick only the polls you like?
Gallup release 3 versions of their daily tracker today. Only the "traditional" LV screen shows a tight race. Thier RV screen has Obama +7 and the "expanded" LV screen, which was designed to account for all of the newly registered voters this cycle who are excluded from the traditional LV screen, shows Obama +8.

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NW Patrick:

Yah when Obama was plus 10 in Gallop before they did LV models they were CRAP..FAIL. ROFL. What an idiot. State after state # coming in horrible for McCain. Poll after national poll showing no movement. And he FREAKS out after a tracker, yes a tracker that is suspect to movement and noise on a daily basis, it's the GREATEST COLLAPSE. I think we not need question his intelligence anymore. The verdict is in!

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NW Patrick:

Boom**** will you PROMISE to be here the evening of Nov. 4th? I have to tell you something that evening. But my guess is YOU WON'T APPEAR. You never do when BAD polls come out. You hide.

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Robi:

guys don't jinx the election.

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NW Patrick:

Boom OMG! The DOW has McCain down -492.22!!!! He's in trouble! Remember, the rising stock market, per your prediction, will be the rise of McCain!

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Inkan1969:

Why doesn't the moderator of this website ban boomshak? It is clear from his behavior that he has no other purpose than to troll this board. His behavior (cherrypicking, screaming, telling half-truths, hurling insults) more than qualifies as disruptive behavior. I've seen some trolls here, like that jigaboo guy, post for a while and then disappear. So I think that the moderator has the ability to ban people. It's past time to ban boomshak as well.

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

Your boy is in deep deep deep trouble.

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NW Patrick:

Boomshak. I fail to see your point:

Florida InAdv/PollPosition Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
North Carolina InAdv/PollPosition Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Nevada InAdv/PollPosition Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
West Virginia InAdv/PollPosition McCain 49, Obama 47 McCain +2
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 49, McCain 41 Obama +8
National Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
National Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Washington SurveyUSA Obama 56, McCain 40 Obama +16
New Mexico SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
South Carolina SurveyUSA McCain 55, Obama 41 McCain +14
Florida CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 46 Obama +5
Virginia CNN/Time Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10
Colorado CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Missouri CNN/Time Obama 48, McCain 49 McCain +1
Georgia CNN/Time McCain 53, Obama 45 McCain +8
Delaware Rasmussen Obama 56, McCain 41 Obama +15
National Ipsos/McClatchy Obama 48, McCain 39 Obama +9
National Pew Research Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8

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Napoleon Complex:

Funny to see that boomshak still thinks he has any credibility. He reminds me of the Kevin Bacon character at the very end of "Animal House." He's standing there in his little cadet uniform, screaming in his squeaky voice "remain calm" "all is well" as he's literally trampled into the sidewalk by the rushing crowd.

Always good for a laugh!

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NW Patrick:

Hey Boom**** he's not my "BOY" he's going to be my "PRESIDENT." Get used to it wishful.

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boomshak:

@Inkan1969:

Why doesn't the moderator of this website ban boomshak?

Because I am the only one that keeps this Forum from being a moonbat circle j*rk of liberal self-delusion.

P.S., I'm a "troll"? Oh, so you mean this is supposed to be a "liberal" website? Else why would a conservative be a troll?

Sorry, but I missed the "Property of DNC" notice on the door.

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NW Patrick:

I actually don't mind seeing Gallop run a conservative estimate. Obama STILL wins by 3 using 2004 data? Sounds good to me! Bush was up 2% heading into election day and look what happened. I'll take it!

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carl29:

boomshak,

This is the comparison analysis:

Using just Ras', Gallup, Zogby

TODAY:

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 44

LAST WEEK: Wednesday 10/08

Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 44.4

Here we have the weekly update, my friends :-)

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

More evidence of trollish behavior. Like I said, the moderator is justified in banning boomshak.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Boom**** your party continues to be UNCOVERED. Did you see the Politico today?

Report alleges ‘unprecedented’ political activity in the Bush White House.

Uh oh Boom****! I still think you should get off your ass and help McCain out in NC since he's losing there. You're FAILING!

____________________

boskop:

@boom

i am a bit incredulous at these polls. i havent tested the veracity of investors busines daily polls over the primaries but the sampling was a bit sparse.

despite what these wacky lemmings think, i wonder if they really listen to the motivations behind the words spoken by their lord and master.

obama
first year
three wars

for those who truly think deficit run ups for foreign wars irrationally waged, i suggest you think really hard about the man you choose.

but you never do. so, make sure all the young men you know either stay in college, or have lousy eyes.

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ericsp28:

Agreed NW Patrick. And having some polls showing a close race will keep the pro-Obama turnout high. Honestly, my biggest worry right now is that some people will not vote because they think Obama already has the election locked up.

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1magine:

boom - He's a man.

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boomshak:

@Inkan1969:

Look at the forum dude, I'm the most popular poster here.

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NW Patrick:

Boomshak let's test your IQ. Please reply with your path to McCain victory in the electoral college. Where do you see opportuntity? I'm curious to debate POLLING with you at the state level. Waiting.

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Inkan1969:

Lately I've been thinking about the last days of the Dukakis campaign. I remember Dukakis surging in the polls in the final days, to the point that Dukakis surging was a news cycle headline. What became of that? Pretty much nothing. His last second surge didn't translate to any electoral votes. I think McCain is following that same path, drumming up attention to appear to surge, but too late to make any difference.

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kerrchdavis:

roflmao! polls tightening? what a joke!
every single day Obama widens his average. Every single day there is 1 poll out of about 9 that shows a 3-5 point lead and that is the poll Boomshak clings on to.

People are already voting guys. According to SUSA, among early voters Obama is ahead in NM +10 and in Ohio +18.

McCain, in the meantime, is campaigning in places like PA while Virginia, Colordao, Florida and North Carolina continue to slip out of reach.

You never know what the future holds but with less than 3 weeks to go this is looking like an epic landslide.

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zotz:

Boom- And don't forget... the most modest too!
This will make you feel better.

"Tracking polls are good way of determining a candidate's movement in the polls but they do not necessarily do the best job in characterizing, profiling, and surveying the demographics properly -- thus they may not be as accurate. This is the reason, I argue, that the tracking polls are likely underestimating Obama's support. So when McCain said he was only down 6% in a rally on Monday, he was following the tracking polls. Obama supporters could very well state that they are up 10%... which is what I believe he is."
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/

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orange24:

@boomshak:
To accuse anyone else of being self-delusional is really funny. I love spending my lunch hour with you. 20 polls show deficits anywhere from 7-15 points. You cherry-pick the two closest ones and say "OMG! OMG! OMG!". That, sir, is delusional.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

a lot of people talked about hitler, OJ simpson and Osama bin Laden.

You are "popular" just the way they are.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

I think people made a mistake to keep mentioning boomshak in every single post. I don't understand why that happened: this website has many pro-McCain posters. All this attention did was feed boomshak's deformed ego. It allowed him to be a mini-dictator on this board, encouraging him to indulging his depraved flaming. This jerk doesn't deserve the attention. I really think he needs to be banned, to break this sick celebrity complex he's inflicting on all of us.

____________________

political_junki:

boskop:
have you changed your medication? it is not working!

____________________

RussTC3:

Why do you people feel so compelled to focus on one person?

How about we focus on the polls, uh?

____________________

1magine:

Just a quick reality check. Given that Sydney needs to win by aprox. 1.8% to change VA and CO as they lead the National polls by generally 1-2%. And Assume only a worst case Gallup scenario where right now BO is only up 3 points. Sydney needs to make up almost 5 percent nationally in less than 3 weeks.

What is the evidence this is occurring in the National polls or the statewide polls? Put another way which pollster has continued a trend toward Sydney in any state or national poll in the last 3 weeks. In fact; as for NH, CO, IA, PA, VA, FL, or OH what poll is Sydney leading in the last 2-3 weeks? In what poll has IA, NH or PA been under 8-10%? In VA, FL or CO how many polls have trended to Sydney - none. How many have Sydney closer than 4? How many have him behind by more than 6?

And can we talk IN, MO, and NC?

Let's face it, once the MSM begins to talk about Sydney hiring Sadam Hussein's front man to lead his Presidential Transition Team - that pounding sound is the last nail in Sydney's coffin.

____________________

mirrorball:

I find this Politico piece really amusing.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Voting_for_Obama_anyway.html

so basically some GOP consultant convinced a focus group of Regan Democrats and independents that Obama is in fact a liberal terrorist, and they still won't bite. Why? The Republican brand sucks.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

From 538:

"Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier. But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll."

____________________

Inkan1969:

@RussTC3

Exactly. It may have to take banning him to break this vile grip boomshak has on this website.

____________________

cambridge blue:

Just eyeballing Gallup's data, their numbers seemed to "tighten" in the 2-3 days before the 1st prez debate and VP debate (not so much in 2nd prez debate).

The intense media coverage/drama and expectation-rising before each could be pushing some undecideds toward McCain. Expectations seem to have been higher for McCain/Palin prior to each debate.

If tonight is a slight Obama win or even a draw, the numbers could open up again.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'm still waiting on debate based on facts over McCain's electoral path. Boom? You there?

____________________

mysticlaker:

I agree. Let's stop feeding the troll. I hereby pledge, no matter how stupid something boom rights, I will not respond to boomshak anymore. I will sacrifice my joy of mocking him, for the good of this board.

In wolf and moose blood,

Mystic Laker.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Right now ONLY looking at states where EITHER candidate leads by a polling average of 5% or better, Obama has 313 electoral votes to McCain's 158.

THIS DOES NOT include current Obama leads in OH, NC, OR NV.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Woops..and I left out MO. He leads on average in MO too. NOT counted in the 313.

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chrisinnc:

@everyone:

Boomshack is not going to be banned from this forum.

He is accomplishing his goal of totally riling up those of us on the Democratic side who check this site frequently in order to monitor the news. Is the Gallup trend good news? No. Does the one poll in a landslide of positive Obama polling that shows movement to McCain mean that Obama's support is "collapsing"? Obviously not.

If you want to effectively "ban" boomshack from these forums, put a user-imposed one on him. Refuse to take his bait, and no matter what hysterical drum-beating he does, completely 100% ignore him.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Good point chrisinnc. From this day forward I will not directly respond to Boom****.

____________________

RussTC3:

The response from the Republican Consultant who arranged the focus group (if you can actually call it that) is hilarious:

"I felt like I was taking crazy pills. I sat on the other side of the glass and realized...this really is the Apocalypse. The Seventh Seal is broken and its time for eight years of pure, delicious crazy...."

LOL

____________________

1magine:

chrisinnc - agreed. Done

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Trosen:

Jeeezus.. Fox news doesn't play the "race" card much, do they.. Don't know whether this makes me laugh or cry.

Of course by this logic, Karl Rove will be endorsing Obama as well.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/15/colin-powell-fuels-speculation-possible-endorsement/

____________________

Inkan1969:

@chrisinnc

Thanks for the comment.

____________________

NW Patrick:

The PEW Research Center is out with a new study that suggests John McCain's attacks against Barack Obama's character and associations have strongly backfired.

Buried in a study released on Wednesday is this nugget:

"Obama has an advantage in voter assessments of the tone of the campaign. Nearly half (48%) see McCain as too personally critical of Obama. By comparison, just 22 % see Obama as too critical of McCain. Even among McCain's own voters, nearly one in five (19%) think he has been too critical of Obama... Perceptions about the campaign McCain is running are starkly different from what they were in June, when just 26% said he had been too personally critical of Obama. In contrast, the percentage believing that Obama has been too negative is nearly unchanged since June."

____________________

carl29:

Did you hear that the RNC is waving the white flag in WI? Thank God...another state off the table.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Carl29 do u have a link on this great news?

____________________

pbcrunch:

@chrisinnc

Thanks... I have been wondering the same myself for weeks now.

____________________

mirrorball:
____________________

chrisinnc:

@carl29 - do you have a link to that story? I'd be interested to read it.

Anybody speculate what McCain's electoral strategy might be at this point? I thought the next state he pulled out of would have been PA, which seems to be a solid double-digit lead for Obama and is costly/large for advertising purposes. Do you think he's staying there just to fend off the appearance that he's given up on the only remaining "large" Kerry state and is entirely defending Republican turf, or does he really believe he can pull off a win there somehow?

I still think McCain's only hope, even if the national numbers were to essentially even out, would be to win all of the Bush states, minus Iowa and New Mexico.

____________________

sunnymi:


This one is for Boomshak, since his hopes for McCain were based on 2 things and the PUMAs were one of them!

"Where have all the PUMA's gone"

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/pumareport.pdf

____________________

carl29:

chrisinnc, NW Patrick:

Chuck Todd just said it on MSNBC. Let me look for the "official" piece.

____________________

carl29:

"From NBC's Chuck Todd
Despite swirling rumors that the McCain campaign's days of full court press in Wisconsin may be numbered, NBC confirms that the Republican nominee's team has bought ad time in markets there next week. But the RNC's independent expenditure arm has stopped its efforts in the Badger State, as well as in Maine, where McCain hopes to snag one of the state's electoral votes.

The RNC's ad cash is already flowing into markets in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania. And newly added to that list in the home stretch to November 4th: battlegrounds Colorado and Missouri."

____________________

carl29:

"RNC out of Wisconsin, Maine; focuses on red states"

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5glxLRJGYXl2qCzirOL_o5HIuXamAD93R3GE83

____________________

Incumbent:

I know I'm waaaay late to this party, but what does PUMA stand for? I see it everywhere and it's driving me crazy...

____________________

chrisinnc:

yes, I've seen the RNC ads here in North Carolina... they are far outnumbered by Obama for America ads, though.

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

boomcrack holding on to a thread of hope that general lee wont surrender at Appomattox lol...

wake up boomcrack its 2008 and your taxes are gonna go up up up!

____________________

zotz:

party unity my a**

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mirrorball:

Isn't it Party Unity My Ass? Or something like that. Basically these were supposed to be the Clinton supporters who swore they would never vote for Obama.

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carl29:

chrisinnc,

Obama's strategy is working. McCain and the RNC are overwhelmed, trying to defend Bush's states.

____________________

Incumbent:

thanks zotz and mirror

____________________

logic001:

boomshak, sometimes there's a change in ruling party. It's just what happens. I wouldn't take it super personally.

A lot of Republicans seem terrified of losing. Relax. It's like noticing a gray hair. It's normal, it happens, it's not the end of the world.

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