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US: Obama 50, McCain 42 (Daily Kos 10/17-19)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/17-19, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 42

 

Comments
UpperLeft:

FIRST

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AdamSC:

Polls are showing a slight Obama increase, by 1-3 points today. Most likely to increase even more after two days of Colin Powell endorsement.

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modrat:

Not sure if the Powell will give Obama that much of a bump, but after watching his reasoning and elequent endorsment again, it just might after some more replay of it. Republicans need to reform their party. The way Powell decribes it is so true. The GOP is now a party of radical wing-nuts that don't live in a reality based world.

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mysticlaker:

How desperate are the republicans? In the national review online front page there are 6 articles on Joe the Plumber. They are banking on that fool to move the election. HAHA. It's like Palin revisited....You should learn from your mistakes.

http://www.nationalreview.com/

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modrat:

okay, update to my previous post, just look at the two article ont he morning ten (to the right on this page). Powell just might force a change of the GOP with his speil on MTP.

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muckinello:

Just hope the McSlime and the rethugs keep up their good job of talking about ayers, socialist, hussein, wealth redistribution, etc. etc. etc.

Also let's hope Palin makes more and more appearances on the train and in front of the press.

It seems to be working wonders for them!

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modrat:

@mystick

Yeah, the Joe deal is so desperate and counter intuative. I mean he would get a tax cut under Obama's plan but his pipe dreams would not get the tax cut. This just proves the GOP is non-reality based.

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modrat:

@ muck

I agree with you but I don't think we will see any more Palin interviews. Except with republican radio types.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@mysticlaker

Yeah but are they talking about the Powell endorsement or the $150M O raised last month? I'd go look but I get so worked up reading that drivel that I just can't bring myself to go into NR, RedState or Freeptard land.

My bet is that the RW echo chamber is just going on and on about Joe because they are in serious denial about the state of the Republican party. I mean when one of the chosen one's like Powell essentially throws the entire party under a bus and says that the kooks have taken over, you've got problems. So it will be interesting to see which tune the fiddlers in Rome are playing.

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BOOMFAIL:

If you do see Palin give an interview on non-rethug media, it will be with McShame holding her hand the whole time. There is no way they will allow her to go on her own anymore.

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jamesugw:

I believe Hotline has narrowed: O47-M42.

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awk:

To see the steadfast McCain/Palin support in the traditional "red" states is nothing short of astounding. Is it a matter of intelligence (or the lack thereof)?

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mysticlaker:

RAS

50-46
O-1 M+1

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zoot:

There's nothing on the website. Where did yous ee that? Link pls if available.

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jamesugw:

And Battleground unchanged at 49-45

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BOOMFAIL:

@awk
Here's an oldie, but goodie:

http://www.hakubi.us/simplyamerican/data/capsi/2004election_by_iq.png

Of most significance, check out the states that Obama will flip to BLUE this year (VA, OH, FL, CO, MO, NV, IA, etc.) and how close they are to the blue level vs. the states that are not going to switch. Very telling indeed.

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MDB1974:

Zogby's write up for November 5.

"While Obama has indeed captured the U.S. presidency exit polling raises a red flag. Over 30% of Americans still see John McCain as more qualified. This is a disturbing trend for Obama as we move into the post election season"

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mysticlaker:

Zoot, It's from a premium member on another blog. It's an accurate number.

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zoot:

My prior post should have referred to Jamesugws post on Hotline. Sorry.

I have not tried to do any analysis - and may not be equipped to do it meaningfully - but is it possible that the national tracking polls are skewed by the fact that voters in the confirmed Red states (AL, SC, KS, etc.) disproportionately favor McCain, while the split in the confirmed Blue states is closer even where not particularly close, say CA or NY?

Maybe someone better versed in polling techniques can comment on this.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

I head to the polls to vote early, people. It's a great day!!! I finally get to cast my ballot in the general election!!!!


Obama/Biden 08!!!!

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carl29:

Boomy,

Uncle Ras got good news for you: O. 50% Mc. 46%

It looks like Ras is paying attention to Zogby.

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mandalorianarmy:

I am voting for Obama today in Florida.

Looks like more of the same in the polls today. A few up, a few down, a few stayed the same.

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BOOMFAIL:

Zogby widens today, so not sure how Ras is paying attention to him.

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carl29:

mandalorianarmy,

I will too. I will meet my husband at 12:00 at the Coral Gables Library to vote together for Obama :-) What a day!!!!

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boomshak:

RASMUSSEN: FROM OBAMA +6 TO +4 IN ONE DAY!:

Monday, October 20, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. Obama has been at the 50% level of support for seven of the past eight days while McCain has been at 45% or 46%. Obama’s lead has been in the four to six point range on each of those eight days.

This suggests that the race may be tightening a bit. Prior to the past week, Obama had enjoyed a five to eight point advantage for several weeks.

McCain has regained his advantage among male voters, leading by five. However, Obama leads by eleven among women.

While Zogby suggests a major Powell Effect, Rasmussen suggest just the opposite.

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carl29:

So, boomshak? Now you're back to Ras? I guess for the day :-)

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boomshak:

@jamesugw:

I believe Hotline has narrowed: O47-M42.

Can you link to that? Can't find it.

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chrisinnc:

Precursor: I am looking for responses to this that actually talk about the poll numbers, not a slanted view either way.

Question: Does anyone have any insight into what's going on w/ the Rass tracker? It's been moving weirdly over the last 3 or 4 days - obama up 6, obama up 4, up 5, up 6, up 4.

I realize this is a fairly narrow range, but they have to be having some pretty big swings in the nightly polling (not the rolling average) in both directions to produce results like this. Thoughts on the movement?

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jamesugw:

Yeah, Boomshak, taken together some of these tracking polls can seem if they're speaking different languages. I think I'm going to take my leave of them for a week...

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Indiana4Obama:

The Ras poll is good news for Mccain. The tightening gives Mccain hope he can pull off a close electoral college victory.

Chuck Todd yesterday on MTP said the Mccain camp has all but given up the chances of winning the popular vote and are looking for a narrow electoral college victory. As the national polls tighten you figure the important state polls (FL/OH/MO/CO/VA) may do the same.

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muckinello:

Boom has dropped Zogby as bff and now is dating Ras again.. I mean.. untill tomorrow that is.

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carl29:

chrisinnc,

I think that Ras' is watching Zogby and is adjusting to it. Didn't Zogby show a narrowing race on Sunday's release? Well, today Ras' followed. If my theory is right, wait for Ras' numbers to widen tomorrow because Zogby did it today.

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boomshak:

@chrisinnc:

Polling is more an art than science. I mean, polling 1,000 people and saying that tells you what 350 million are thinking is always inexact.

I think the most important thing is that over the last week, the momentum seems to be all McCain (with the exception of Gallup's odd RV number).

Obama faded badly into the close in the primaries. May be same thing here.

Who knows? Obama should be ahead by 20 points here. If he had any real experience and wasn't a card-carrying socialist, he would be.

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eugene:

I just went to vote today,in something is very wrong,when I put my vote in for Obama the machine switched my vote to Mccain,I immediately told the judge,but she told me maybe I touched the wrong one,but a few more people who was voting came out in said the samething,but again nothing was done about it,what should i do about this because this could be a major problem for Obama,this election is looking like its going to be stolen.

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eugene:

I just went to vote today,in something is very wrong,when I put my vote in for Obama the machine switched my vote to Mccain,I immediately told the judge,but she told me maybe I touched the wrong one,but a few more people who was voting came out in said the samething,but again nothing was done about it,what should i do about this because this could be a major problem for Obama,this election is looking like its going to be stolen.

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Indiana4Obama:

People surprised that Obama isn't up 20 points are not thinking properly. This is still a closely divided voting public, very close to 50-50.

That an African-American male with an exotic background, unconventional name, and prone to unrelenting attacks from the Neocons is actually AHEAD solidly against a former War Hero says a lot about Obama the candidate and the campaign he's run.

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carl29:

Boomshak,

"Who knows? Obama should be ahead by 20 points here. If he had any real experience and wasn't a card-carrying socialist, he would be."

According to the Generic Congressional Vote:

GW/Battleground 10/09 - 10/15
Democrat 49 Republican 40 Democrats +9

Rasmussen 10-12-08
Democrat 46% Republican 38% Democrats +8

==================================

Is the Gap in the Generic ballot +20 points for the Democrats?

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GrampsMcCain:

Okay, this is nuts. Yesterday Ras shows a 51 45 lead, and after the Powell endorsement he loses a point? What the hell are the voters smoking? McCain had a good day of polling yesterday, probably O ahead by only 2. When O's good Friday # drops off this will tighten overall to O 49 M46/47, I like the margin to stay at O +5 I think I will throw up a bit in my mouth.

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jonny87:

argh! i hate tightening polls. hard to understand why obama would slip after a day of really positive coverage. the media still yacking about 'spread the wealth' and joe the plumber?

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chrisinnc:

@jamesugw: i wish i had the will-power to do the same. even after long days manning the early vote lines here in NC, i still check pollster as soon as i get home at night.

i don't really buy the conspiracy that any of these pollsters are trying to mirror other polls (except for gallup with their bull**** C.Y.A. triumverate of polls).

@Indiana4Obama - I don't really know that I see "tightening" across the board in these polls, which I guess is more of what my original question was for: they seem to be moving erratically for the first time this cycle.

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BOOMFAIL:

Now that the rethugs like to point to McShame Palin crowd size and brag... (since it's only a "celebrity" if the candidate drawing the huge crowds is Obama)... It will be interesting to see if McSham draws 100,000+ and 75,000+ in MO today like Obama did over the weekend!

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DTM:

@chrisinnc

Daily tracking polls can be expected to go through a variation on a random walk simply due to sampling error.

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NorthernObserver:

@ eugene

You've got to inform the authorities, the press, and the Obama campaign.

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NorthernObserver:

@ eugene

You've got to inform the authorities, the press, and the Obama campaign. You should also let the authorities know the names of the others too. Perhaps start up a web site for everyone for whom the machine failed.

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cinnamonape:

Folks! Even the tracking polls would be unlikely to fully sample the effects of something like the Powell endorsement until a day or two. People who are undecided rarely sit in front of those Sunday talk shows. They might catch up on the news stream later in the day, or read it in the Monday morning papers.

Plus the main impact of something like that will be them talking to colleagues about its "meaning"-particularly family members in the military.

Wait a day or two.

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