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US: Obama 50, McCain 42 (Daily Kos 10/18-20)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/18-20, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 42

 

Comments
m913:

Zogby and Kos, both at 8. I guess that is some kind oof mutual confirmation.

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eugene:

why wont the media just tell the truth!!this race is over,mccain chances of winning is slim in none,this is looking like its going to be a blowout for obama

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Kile Thomson:

Good Morning

i want to see more state polls

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MNLatteLiberal:

Kile, fwiw,
Minneapolis Star Tribune has Al Franken up by 3 this morning.

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MNLatteLiberal:

boomshack, I have a serious question for you.

What did John McCain said when he heard your plan to sink Obama in one question? I need to know if I should be wearing black today.

Black is so slimming, but I am very buff. So, you see my dilemma. I need to know what to wear.
Bueller? Bueller?

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Observer:

So Kos with a +9 Dem sample gets the same result as Zogby with a +2 Dem sample. Hmm. Kos with a Zogby sample would be +1 Obama. Zogby with a Kos sample would be +15 Obama. But at least they agree on the current figure. Whether that figure is correct is of course another matter.

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Kile Thomson:

MN will go blue

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muckinello:

@eugene
NEVER RELAX! We have been here before, in 2000 and 2004. I can't take another one of those!
Work hard and vote. We count our chickens on Nov. 4!
Everything is going to revolve around PA. Now McCain has given up on holding on the Bush states and he needs to peel one away from Obama. Looks like my state will be inundated with slime in the next two weeks.

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jeepdad:

I really expected the Kos poll to catch some of same momentum Zogby sees. Anyone know what Obama polled Monday in the Kos poll?

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mysticlaker:

Hotline

47-41

M-1

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Vokoban:

@ jeepad

"On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +7 Sat, +8 Sun and +9 Mon."

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jeepdad:

Thanks Vokoban. So there is a bit of Obamamentum going on.

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muckinello:

However, I am glad to say that I see a path for Obama WITHOUT PA, OH, FL and NC if he wins VA, MO and CO. That said, no time to rest!

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jeepdad:

Supposedly CNN has some more state polls coming out today, but I'm thinking they'll all be "pre-Powell" and won't reflect the slight Obama bounce we're apparently seeing over the last couple of days.

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Vokoban:
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Kile Thomson:

Ras

O-50
M-46

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DCWylly:

That's a first... Zogby and Daily Kos converging.

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Observer:

I can understand that Obama wants to visit his ill grandmother. It is perfectly understandable:

"In the last few weeks, her health has deteriorated to the point where her situation is very serious. It is for that reason that Sen. Obama has decided to change his schedule on Thursday and Friday so that he can see her and spend some time with her," Gibbs said."

But scheduling a visit later in the week looks very cold blooded to me. If the poor lady is now very serious go visit her now, before it's too late. That's what we would all do with our relatives.

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Chester:

@ Kile:
I didn't think the Ras numbers were out yet; are those yesterdays?

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Thatcher:

@Observer -

Shut the F*&K up.

His grandmother is not in good shape - but we don't know what her physicians told Obama about the prognosis. I'm sure her physicians advised Obama with their advice on visiting her.

And for you, or anybody, to twist this with those type of comments - is disrespectful and despicable.

Can't you just wish his grandmother all the best and that your thoughts and/or prayers are with her?

If not - just shut the hell up.

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jonny87:

@Kile Thomson

numbers from a premium member?

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tar_heel:

premium members can see them at 9 am; Kile must be one of them. So far, three trackers move in O's favor, one--albeit the most reliable of the four--stays the same.

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Chester:

Did Zogby change its party weighting? A 4 point jump when they others hold pat seems odd to me ??

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Thatcher:

@Chester -

Rasmussen releases daily tracker numbers to registered members of their site at 9 am Eastern - 30 minutes prior to public.

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modrat:

Everyday that McCain does not show a strong improvement is a bad day for him. Showing movement in the opposite way, even a small one, is one less day to make up the discrepency in the polls.

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DecaturMark:

Pollster just moved FL back to toss up. I think was was expected.

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Northeastern Republican:

Observer -

Its possible his schedule had something to do with it. As cold as it sounds, I'm sure its very difficult to balance your personal life with your campaign schedule at this stage in the game. I have no idea where Obama is scheduled to be in the next day or two but I did hear that the events being canceled so he could fly home included rallys in Iowa and I think Minnesota? Two states that are supposidly a lock for him now? So maybe he and his team agreed it would be better to keep events scheduled in tigheter states and travel home when his campaign schedule was more allowing of it?

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Northeastern Republican:

Chester - I believe it was a two point jump in the last 24 hours, a 4 point jump in the last 48 hours. Either way though, yes, something seems off with the Zogby polling. For a daily tracker, their numbers seem to be all over the place compared to some of the other trackers that move in less substantial directions day to day. Do they not do a three day weight? Perhaps that is why.

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NorthernObserver:

@ MNLatteLiberal

Just wondering, did the Star Trib say anything about the Bachmann race?

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Eternal:

Funny how this poll looks less and less like a "outlier" everyone tried to make it just because KOS commissioned the poll.

Good for R2K

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Observer:

Thatcher

Sorry to upset you. Yes, I was out of order. I do not have all the facts. And of course I do wish the lady well.

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muckinello:

Pollster and RCP maps are very similar. The race starts to stabilize. Also the trackers seem to be stable and somewhat converging. State polls also seem to be steady.
Powell endorsement should a small effect on swing voters and maybe they will part in a bit better % for Obama (most pundits say that McCain will get 2/3 of the uncommitted).
Now the goal is to keep the ship steady for two more weeks!

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Form Blazing Sword! Okay now that I have that out of the way.

Obama holding steady in Ras, hopefully he can edge up to a 5-6 point lead later this week, who knows what will happen with Gallup and their three poll formula.

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Eternal:

@Observer,

Classy response, well done.

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Observer:

Obama holding steady in Ras is good news for McCain given that they increased their Dem sample again this week. Of course Hotline and Zogby moving up is good news for Obama. Seems we might have one final round of the polls dancing off in different directions before a final pre-poll reunion.

I see that the latest Biden gaffe (mega-gaffe?) is getting a lot of airing today.

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Chester:

Is Battleground on crack? It's reading O +1 today, about 10 points off what gallup was yesterday. They swing up and down so much it makes me dizzy.

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Mike A.:

where's the battlegorund link? actual numbers?

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mysticlaker:

you can get it from RCP.

What a joke...

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Vokoban:

It gets even funnier:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/20/mccain-employing-gop-oper_n_136254.html

"John McCain's campaign has directed $175,000 to the firm of a Republican operative accused of massive voter registration fraud in several states."

Have fun with it.

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BOOMFAIL:

If people have to wait 3 HOURS + in line to vote two weeks from election day, how long will it be on November 4th?!?! You would think these states would have known the turnout is going to be through the roof this year and be prepared for it. Or perhaps there is a concerted effort to suppress the voting?? Pretty sure there's a great deal of working people that will not be able to take off on election day and wait all day to vote. My advice to anyone living in a state that allows early voting: DO IT!

Yesterday: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081020/ap_on_el_pr/florida_early_voting

2004: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94428993

"In the key battleground state of Ohio in 2004, some voters waited up to 10 HOURS to cast their ballots."

Do you think these long lines existed in Rethug leaning districts??? NO!

We need every vote to count and be counted to bring about the change that this country needs! DO NOT LET THEM STEER YOU AWAY! The Rethugs want low turnout. It's the only hope they have. They do not want your voice to be heard. Prove them wrong and VOTE NOW or on election day, but be ready to wait in long lines if you wait until Nov 4th.

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Thatcher:

@BOOMFAIL:

Amen, brutha -

just as an idea:

DEM 269,592
LIB 235
REP 132,836
UNA 79,731
482,394 Total

Have voted in NC by absentee/early vote ...

that's 140,000 in one day - yesterday was just 343,000

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MNLatteLiberal:

@Northern Observer

There is nothing in THAT article about the CD6 race. But there is a sidebar article

http://www.startribune.com/politics/31412049.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUnciaec8O7EyUsX

that talks about Aubrey Immelmann re-entering the race on the Republican side as a write-in in light of Bachmann's comments last Friday.
That story broke last night, and there is nothing in the link that is news to us, the hardcore political addicts here :).

As the story goes, Aubrey got 15% of the Republican vote in the primaries last month (the article sites 14%), effectively robbing Bachmann of majority votes cast overall:

Even though Tinklenberg ran unopposed, a number of my CD6 friends refused to cast a vote for him to symbolically protest his somewhat soft views on Choice. As it stood, Bachmann got a plurality of overall vote in CD6, but El was within a hundred votes or so, afair.

With Aubrey as a write-in, I doubt that will make much headway splintering the Republican vote; they are just not that educated, nor do they understand what Bachmann truly represents. El needs to launch a serious "gloves off" TV ad campaign and EXPOSE Bachmann. He cannot do another Wettherling "Mr. Nice" campaign, which imho he has been running thus far.

EXPOSE THE EVIL!

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masselo:

@Thatcher:

Any word on Florida..

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fed:

Florida(13 of 67 counties reporting)
Dem 54.1
Rep 30.9
other 15

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Thatcher:

@masselo -

The nice part about NC is that it is state-centric. In Florida- each of the 67 counties runs their own little fiefdom for the elections offices - though they do send it up to the state - you still have to download all 67 files and compile them, etc ... it'd be a lot of work ... just to get a set of numbers.

However - at the 10 early locations in Orange County Florida (Orlando area) - they each reported 400-1200 voters having voted.

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joethedummer:

haahah boomcrack must have offed itself!

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Paul:

Obama consistently leads among females (in this poll +19) and with Independents (in this poll +6). If both candidates hold their base equally, independents settle the election. In addition, if Obama wins females by a significant margin and Mccain wins males by 2-3 points, Obama wins.

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