Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/24-26, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50, McCain 42
Considering how the Reps have run the country, why are there even 42% supporting them?! The only people who should be supporting McCain are his mother and his wife.
Posted on October 27, 2008 7:55 AM
and good day for America
Oops; sorry MNLL; not first.
Posted on October 27, 2008 7:57 AM
It will tighten tomorrow. McCain had a good night last night (Obama +5) and a O +11 night rolls off tomorrow. Unless Obama pulls another +11 tonight, we'll see that McCain surge...
Posted on October 27, 2008 7:59 AM
Obama is even sliding in the Daily Kook....bye bey Barry
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:00 AM
In the top 3 though.
These days I find myself wishing we could win this election twice. And the more I think about the knife fighting in the GOP that has started 10 days before the elections, the more we ARE winning it more than once.
@ Southern Angler,
you are confusing your elections, Goldwater isn't running.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:02 AM
Here's a nice piece of news:
O 52 M 44
McCain's path to the White House is very difficult without Virginia's 13 electoral votes, and Obama now leads the senator from Arizona 52 percent to 44 percent in the new poll.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:06 AM
New Reuters/Zogby telephone survey results out this morning
ABC/WP poll of VA: O+8
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:09 AM
Someone calls you. You say a name. You go back to your life.
Someone matters to you. You register to vote. You drive to the polling station, stand in line, and vote.
Pushing all those McCain leaners who aren't actually going to the polls does not mean much.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:14 AM
Hmm this is making be a bit nervous tightening faster then what I would like to see.
its funny how all of a sudden people are treaking zogby polls with some respect. i agree though, they appear about accurate!
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:16 AM
It seems McCain always does well on the weekends and Obama falls back a few points then gains steam again mid-week. Hope that is the case again in this last week before election day.
OBAMA IS COLLAPSING EVERYWHERE!
Even DailyKos. Single day polling yesterday - O 49, M 44. That is a massive falloff from just a few days ago on a poll that believes only 26% of Americans are Republicans.
And this collpase is even before the damning Obama "socialist" tape.
REGARDING THE ZOGBY STATE POLLS:
Those are these weird "interactive internet polls" and no one takes them seriously (as I have often been reminded by Obama supporters here). They are highly erratic.
Polls have a way of tightening every four years at the end stages of a Presidential race. That's what we are seeing here: many Republican-leaning Independents "coming home" to McCain.
What gives me comfort is that "tightening" still leaves Obama with about a 5 point lead.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:18 AM
"REGARDING THE ZOGBY STATE POLLS:
Those are these weird "interactive internet polls" and no one takes them seriously (as I have often been reminded by Obama supporters here). They are highly erratic."
I made the same assumption, boom. Incorrectly, as it turns out. These are phone polls (paid for by Reuters/CSpan). Samples of 600 each.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:20 AM
Actually Boom**** the Zogy polls were not internet Polls. Secondly last weekend Obama only polled at plus 7 and 8 with the Daily Kos Poll plus he lost a plus 14 from his tally today.
At one point boom, you were just an excited partisan, now you have become nothing more than a troll.
AND SAYING THINGS IN CAPS DOESN'T MAKE THEM TRUE!
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:21 AM
whenever boom has one of his rants, i know we are doing alright...
boom, those are phone polls, not internet polls from zogby.
There is a reason I explicitly mentioned at the top of my message that these were telephone surveys done for Reuters: to distinguish these from Zogby's useless online surveys.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:23 AM
It is completely reasonable to assume this will tighten to a 3-5 point race before the election. The problem for McCain is even if he cuts in down to 2-3 he is looking at a BLOWOUT. No reason to even look at a national pole until about Thursday of this week to see how it is trending.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:26 AM
O dropping under 50 in a one day sample for Kos not great, need to see the internals and see where the movement is.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:27 AM
Presumably, if the overall MoE for this poll is 3 points, the margin on one day's polling must be around plus/minus 5 points for each candidate?
So I'm not sure we're seeing anything here that's even a weekend tightening, though it does seem to fit the pattern.
Really it's pointless to try and conclude anything useful from one third of a rolling three day sample.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:29 AM
SHOCKING NEWS FROM CALIFORNIA:
So far, in early and absentee voting, it is a dead TIE between Republicans and Democrats. Obama is supposed to win CA for 19 points.
I smell overconfidence.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:30 AM
What you Obamarxists need to realize is that this poll WILDLY undersamples Republicans. I mean, c'mon, 26%?
And even with that, Obama has only a 5 point lead and this is BEFORE the 2001 tape surfaced.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:32 AM
Presidential races do not necessarily tighten in the last 10 days - historically they are almost as likely to blow wide open. Don't take my word for it - go look at the Gallup trial heat polls dating back to 1948. And it's too early to say this is tightening, based on a couple of polls.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:33 AM
HAHA....McCain wins California....
Actually, I really thought that if I was McCain I would go to Cali instead of PA. It might be a better shot to 270...No competition from Obama either.
I lived in CA for 10 years and the Repukes always lead around 2-1 in absentee voting due to seniors and the military so this is actually very unusal that it is a tie. Nice try though dickhead.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:34 AM
Troll, baby, troll!
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:36 AM
Haha...The 2001 tape. You promised me whitey, and all I get is a consitutional talk on the civil rights movement and school money redistribution. You should listen to the whole thing, not just the edited version from drudge you ass munch.
All of these state polls with their small samples and huge MOE's are suspect. As we have seen in SUSA polls, it is not unusual for democrats to be given a 14 point sampling advantage.
What is weird though, is how as Rasmussen had Obama's lead expanding nationally, he was closing in states. Now as Zogby has McCain closing nationally, Obama's lead expands in states.
It seem counter-intuitive.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:37 AM
let's not get overexcited this early in the morning. there's a long day ahead, which is just the start of a long week. And as I say at least once a week, the polls rarely march together.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:38 AM
My boomshak like national poll predictions for today:
Ras O 51 M 45
Hotline O 49 M 43
Battleground O 49 M 46
Gallup LV2 O 51 M 43
IBD O 46 M 43
ABC O 51 M 45
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:43 AM
new McCain ad...
I normally don't post these because they are pretty boring but this one shows something interesthing...Palin is obviously de-emphasized.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:45 AM
There is no denying that there is no good news for Obama today:
1. The 2001 Redistribution of Wealth Tape.
2. Barney Frank saying we should cut defense spending by 25%.
3. The video of Obama saying he will "cut off all spending for future combat systems".
4. The plummeting in poll after poll now (even DailyKos with it's whacked sample).
5. Obama cutting off a TV station for asking tough questions. BTW, Joe Biden never did answer the question as to whether Obama was a Marxist.
Also, here in NC, Obama continues to run this ad saying McCain will cut over $800 billion from Medicare when both ABC and the Post came out saying the ad was a complete lie.
Is this really the NEW type of government you had hoped for?
If he is POTUS, will Obama ban any reporter from the WH who asks him a tough question?
P.S., Obama has not done a press conference since Joe the Plumber came out. Wonder why?
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:47 AM
@Voltron Defender of the Universe: ,
I was thinking the same thing for RAS... a drop in Obama's number by 2 points or so. My prediction for Battleground is a tie or +1 for Obama. In fact, I think most if not all of the national polls today will show McCain gaining. I'm more interested to see where it stands on Thursday and Friday after Obama's 30 minute airtime.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:48 AM
How many people do you think will actually find out what Obama was talking about on that audio tape? They will either disregard it completely because they will see it as Drudge just trying to stir up trouble (a la Ashley Todd) or they will just read the headline and use it to confirm their worst fears that Obama is a socialist hellbent on destroying the country.
Unfortunately, people are surprisingly lazy.
You really need a hug from someone. Everything is going to be okay. Just hush now.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:49 AM
Yep, the reported MOE on the daily sample is 5%. Accordingly, as I suggested elsewhere a 49-44 daily is actually within the MOE of the previous three-day average (51-40)--and that prior three-day even included a +14 sample from 10/23. In turn that +14 was also within MOE range of the broader averages, but just as this latest daily sample was likely on the low side, that daily sample was likely on the high side.
All this is consistent, however, with a stable real value somewhere in between (around +9 give or take).
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:51 AM
No one reading reading drudge/fox news is "on the fence". They've made up their minds one way or the other. There has been enough **** spewed about Obama on both those sites, that anyone looking for an excuse not to vote for Obama has hundreds. It's a crying wolf scenario.
I starting saying this in Sept when McCain went negative - he should have saved it all for last week and this week. It would have been WAY more effective. There would be little time to fight it from Obama's side, and you maybe could have moved the polls 3-5 points.
It's stupid to throw everything and find what sticks. You have to start an argument and finish it till the end. Think flip-flop a la kerry, wimp a la dukakis, mccain=bush a la obama.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:55 AM
you post at 8.47am to say there is no good news for Obama today!
let's wait and see how the day unfolds. For a start expect in the region of about 20 polls to be released.
ps the tape in a non-starter
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:57 AM
All true, boom. Anyway, what are you going to wear to the inauguration speech for President Obama?
By the way, McRage doesn't do press conferences either. And lets add up all of Palins press conferences. Wonder Why?
You're falling apart here. Seriously. You are now attempting to cite Daily Kos national polls "tightening" to 8 points as a source of hope.
You realize that sounds ridiculous, right?
Today's state polls look awful for the GOP. Early voting figures look awful for the GOP. Intrade markets look awful for the GOP. And now a civil war among the McCain/Palin ticket has gone public (how bad do you think their internals are if people are already jumping ship?).
Friendly advice - let it go, now. And instead, talk about how much stronger the GOP would have been if Romney had been the nominee (just like you wanted). That way, you're relevant again.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:58 AM
Just for fun, a quick survey of the top ten most-viewed political stories on Yahoo! News right now:
1. Candidates spar with 9 days to go
2. Alaska's largest newspaper endorses Obama
3. Palin says expensive clothing not her property
4. Obama Wages `Uphill Battle' to Wrest West Virginia From McCain
5. Big crowds for Obama's 'red-state tour'
6. McCain turns criticism to leaders of Congress
7. Obama offering closing case to voters in Ohio
8. Obama, McCain Face Most Pressure Since FDR to Speed Transition
9. Obama leads in 5 key states, McCain in 2
10. McCain guarantees victory
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:59 AM
Any early news on the Rasmussen Tracker?
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:00 AM
Rasmussen 51-46. Yeah Baby!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:04 AM
Not surprised at all by RAS. I knew he would Obama with +5 today.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:07 AM
That looks right 51-46...
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:09 AM
3 point swings are rare in daily trackers. That means that McCain polled 9 points better Sunday than he did on Thursday. The number that makes me a little happy as a McCain supporter, believe me I'm not an idiot and realize we are still down, is that the CERTAIN vote went from 48-39 to 46-41. I think McCain has a chance to win late deciders if he can close the gap and a "comeback" narrative takes over the "its over" narrative.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:11 AM
We are to believe that John McCain is going to pull off the biggest comeback in modern day election history?
McCain would have to be running ahead at this point by 1 to 3 points to have any chance. Undecideds aren't going to move towards the incumbent party when 85 percent of the country thinks we are headed in the wrong direction.
In 1992, Bush pulled within 1 point of Clinton heading into the weekend before the election. 63 percent of the country thought we were headed in the wrong direction. We saw how that election turned out.
It's McCain supporters fantasy, you can dream if you want to.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:14 AM
I sort of like a tightening...It'll get Obama voters out :)
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:16 AM
haha.. what a joke. The Ayers thing had more legs. A speech in 2001 about a Supreme Court decision "not being that radical" is the magic bullet? Please.. more and more red meat for the base. More McCain votes in TN, KS, UT and NE. Great.
MY bold prediction: When this thing fails to get legs, next they'll dig up Rezko. When that falls flat, they'll bring out the defibrillator on Jeremiah Wright.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:21 AM
Some of the people on here need to look up definiton of plummet.. McCain's numbers after the "fundamentals of economy" debacle was a plummet.. over the past month this is the normal trend.. obama builds up to a 8-10 pt lead.. and goes back to 5-7, then for 5-6 days it slowly goes back up..
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:22 AM
Many undecides are republicans, it is obvious they will join McCain´s ranks sooner or later.Obama does not poll too well on weekends. Remember last monday or tuesday the rcp average was around 5 point at one point
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:23 AM
"3 point swings are rare in daily trackers."
At the risk of sounding like a pedant, +8 to +5 is a 1.5 point swing.
We can't spin the Ras poll as good news for Obama. He's had a bad Sunday in all the daily trackers so far. It will be interesting to see what the work week brings, as support for O always seems to pick up then. People will be away from their pastors, priests, and barbeques and have their attention focused once again on their jobs and 401Ks. And that focus will once again favor the Democrats.
Yes I've tried to explain the natural variation in daily polls but some people don't understand :)
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:24 AM
So today Ramussen has Obama +5. Last Monday (10/20) Rasmussen had Obama +4, and the Monday before that (10/13) Obama was +5. Seems fairly consistent.
I'm not sure what all the hubub is about.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:27 AM
Omen 1: Pennsylvania's Joe Paterno, 82 years old, beats Ohio, 13-6.
Interpretation 1: Old man McCain wins in Pennsylvania by 7.
Interpretation 2: Old man McCain beats down Ohio by 7.
Omen 2: Phillies take 3-1 lead in series. Can close it out tonight.
Interpretation 1: Phillies, led by Old Man Jamie Moyer, win in 5. McCain, Old Man, wins by 5.
Interpretation 2: Series ends before Obama's half-hour TV melodrama hence denying Obama any World Series lead in.
The stars are lining up. Obama's in serious trouble.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:28 AM
Also I love how McCain supporters talk about how 49-44 is within the MOE.. if 5 points is withing MOE, then this race COULD also be 55-39.. I do not think that, but MOE goes both ways not just toward McCain's favor
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:29 AM
Regression to the mean....That is what we are seeing everywhere. It is something like a 5-6 point race, with Obama bounces pushing him to 7-10 sometimes.
Without a legit third party candidate running, McCain only has to pull within 2 points to win the electoral college. I've done the math: based on blue states becoming bluer and red states becomeing purpler, McCain could lose by up to two points nationally and edge out Obama in the EC. Some examples of densely populated blue states becoming bluer: Wis, PA, MI, MN (don't know the population but would assume a good number of people)NH, NY-In all of these states that went blue 4 years ago Obama has a commanding lead that Kerry never came close to. Than you look at red states like ND, SD, MT, and IN-all states that went by at least 20 points for Bush are toss ups or leaning McCain. Assuming McCain wins all 4 (likely) his popular vote total will sag in comparison to Bush. In fact the only state where the pollster trend had McCain doing better than Bush last time was AZ (+3) But after those two polls yesterday I doubt that even that is true. I can see a scenario where McCain hold the EC but loses the national popular vote, actualyl pretty easily.
3rd poll in a row showing Obama behind there only in the low single digits.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:31 AM
Unless we have a black Monday today. Dow´s futures do not look so good. We might go bellow 8000 today. I wonder how the markets will react if we reach that number, lets hope and pray it doesn´t
Watch for Obama to roll out the Hagel endorsement in the next day or two, followed by the big Clinton/Obama rally in Florida and the 30-minute spot to end the week. The Obama team likely has one or two other tricks up their sleeves.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:32 AM
Obama's lead contracts 3 points in one day to O+5 on Rasmussen!
If you follow Rasmussen, you know how STUNNING of a development this is. I can't recall the last time Rasmussen moved the race 3 points in a single day.
In order to go from 2 solid days of Obama +8 to O+5 in one day, Obama mjust have polled at most +2 or 3 in Sunday.
This is HUUUGE and is confimed by all of the other polls coming out.
This race is tightening and tightening fast. And this is BEFORE the news of the 2001 tape has even come out.
How...What states does McCain win?
I'm still in awe that Obama lost 3 points of his lead on Rasmussen i one day. That is incredible! Rasmussen simply does NOT move that fast.
The odd part is that in his commentary, Rasmussen seems to find this wholly unremarkable. It makes me wonder if he has take sides?
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:34 AM
No, boom, it just means that Ras knows more about what his numbers mean than you do.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:35 AM
can anyone put there finger on why obama polled badly on sunday(apart from he always does worse at weekends). the media coverage was positive right?
Boom, and Obama still leads by more than he did last Monday on Ras. Week over week he gained. Not looking good for McCain.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:37 AM
It would be tough, but MO, IN, OH, FL, NC, NV, CO, VA.
All of these races, with the exception of VA are very close and could break McCain's way. The point of my post is, though, that Obama is driving up his popular vote in states that are probably not going to change who they give their EV to.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:38 AM
RE: the "October Surprise"
Really? That's it?
For idiots like boom who are scared that Democrats are going to give all of his money to poor, lazy black people, let's point out that Obama was defending the Warren Court from charges that it was too radical (the 1960s version of boom would have made that claim) by saying that it performed under the "essential" constraints laid on that branch of government by the Constitution. Obama is also correct that the Constitution essentially says what the federal and state governments can and can't do to you, not what they should do for you. What they should do for you is up to the legislature - ie, folks elected by the people. And if legislation passed by the legislative branch is seen as un-Constitutional by the President, he/she can veto said legislation. If that fails, the Supreme Court can then be asked to rule on its consitutionality. If that fails and people hate what the legislature did, they can vote them out of office. That's the way it works. There is nothing wrong with the legislature passing legislation that adjuts our progressive tax code - and that is exactly what Obama is proposing to do. I mean, all the guy has said is that he a) wants to allow the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 5% to expire on schedule (I believe in 2010), bringing them back to the levels they were at during the Clinton years, b) wants to give tax credits to small businesses and middle/lower income workers, c) establish a health care system that will ensure that everybody has access to affordable health care (he doesn't even include a mandate for adults), d) increase the capital gains tax from Bush's 15% to 20%, e) implement a partial payroll tax for the top 5% of income earners, and f) eliminate the income tax for all seniors with under $50K of income.
That's radical? That's socialism? That's communism? Heck, even Adam Smith wrote that the wealthy may have to pay a larger share of the burden than the working class and poor. Adam Smith!
For the intellectually impaired among the commenters (boom, southern angler, etc), let's define the terms we are throwing about these days:
Communism - a socioeconomic structure that promotes the establishment of an egalitarian, classless society based on common ownership of the means of production and property in general.
Socialism - refers to a broad set of economic theories of social organization advocating state or collective ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods, and the creation of an egalitarian society.
Progressive Tax - a tax imposed so that the tax rate increases as the amount subject to taxation increases. In simple terms, it imposes a greater burden (relative to resources) on the rich than on the poor. "Progressive" describes a distribution effect on income or expenditure, referring to the way the rate progresses from low to high, where the average tax rate is less than the marginal tax rate. It can be applied to individual taxes or to a tax system as a whole; a year, multi-year, or lifetime. Progressive taxes attempt to reduce the tax incidence of people with a lower ability-to-pay, as they shift the incidence disproportionately to those with a higher ability-to-pay.
So, which of those three best describes the economic policies of Barack Obama?
Boom, when Obama starts talking about nationalizing the industries of our nation (you know, like the Bush administration has done with our banking system - via a bill that both Obama AND McCain voted for) and eliminating the current class structure, get back to me with your fear mongering.
Living in the past, folks...move on. I mean, what is this....1956?
John McCain is finally on the message I have been begging for for 3 months now - Electing Obama means total liberal control.
Frank's comments about cutting defense by 25% ain't helping.
Anyway, MAJOR contraction across the board here. Obama supporters should ver very worried.
LOL Boom thinks Ras is in the tank for Obama. That is truely hilarious. It looks like Obama had a bad polling day yesterday but as Ras says he is still farther ahead than he was a week ago.
No reason to panic unless the trend continues.
Who knows jonny?
I don't understand why Obama polled +10-+14 on Thursday, nor do I understand why McCain polled +3/4 on Sunday.
The only thing I can point you to is this:
It's harder to reach Obama supporters than McCain supporters. Weekends may emphasize that problem.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:39 AM
Let the trolls rub themselves raw over the "tightening" trackers. It's meaningless. McCain can't get within single digits in PA where he's put all his chips. VA is getting worse and worse for him. FL and OH are toss-ups at best, and if he wins them BOTH he still loses when he can't hold VA or CO. It's a joke. The Obama ground game is Kicking ASS.. No one has let up.. the volunteer rolls are GROWING, not contracting. My one complaint is that the TV ads here in FL are a little overkill, and some are very repetitive. I don't think it will cause a "backlash," but he needs some new ads. As for door-to-door canvassing here in FL.. it's about 10-1 EASY for Obama volunteers. Most McCain stuff are mailers via the RNC and a couple of robocalls. I'm guessing it's the same in OH and other swing states.
Expect the race to tighten this week. Those 8% of undecideds that have been walking around for the past 8 weeks? They're going to start deciding. A two-party race in this day and age will not have an 8pt lead for the Democrat. It just won't.
Expect it to settle down at about a 4pt lead all things being equal/no bombshells. 52/48 or so. Yes, R2K is going to surge for McCain tomorrow unless Obama has a huge day today. Expect it.
This is what is meant by the race will tigthen. It's not going to improve McCain's chances much (the statewides Obama needs to win all have him over 50% consistently) but it's going to make for annoying press coverage. Just keep your hats on.
it is good to have hope.. I had hope for Kerry, I mean Frankenstein should always win the Tuesday after Halloween.. but did not work..
McCain needs to personally go to Pakistan and bring Osama back to the USA.. if he does that, he has a better chance..
This race was always going to be close, but it comes down to ground game in these swing states.. Obama's is much better than McCain's, Bush's was better than Gore and Kerry.. the ground game gives Obama a +2% advantage in the swing states reguardless of polls..
Only reason I am worried is because Republican Base usually has a high voter turnout..
However, Obama is relying on the help of 3 low voter turn out groups.. Youth vote, Black vote, and new voters.. all three traditionally have low voter turnout.. It is obvious the minority vote is coming out, by the early voting results so far.. but from what I have seen young vote is not coming as of yet..
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:40 AM
PPP is a hardcore dem pollster. Ignore them.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:41 AM
"I can see a scenario where McCain hold the EC but loses the national popular vote, actualyl pretty easily."
Yes, the scenario exists, but how likely is it? I suggest you go visit 538. In the most recent simulation run, "McCain loses popular vote but wins electoral vote" happened only 66 out of 10,000 times.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:42 AM
Rasmussen finds it unremarkable because (1) He's not like that alarmist/drama queen Zogby who goes bonkers over every rise and fall, and (2) he actually sees that Obama is sitting right where he was a week ago today.
Also, he knows his new numbers coming out tonight from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia will look good for Obama. so no use stirring the pot over nothing.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:43 AM
Re: McCain's good Sunday in the national polls.
Anybody think that perhaps this could be due to the now discredited "Big black Obama supporter attacks poor little white McCain girl" story? The story was hyped big time before the details came out - ie, the McCain volunteer was lying out her arse. I would bet that a lot of folks saw the initial story and not the follow-up. As the hoax factor becomes more clear, people will swing back to Obama.
Just a theory. I mean, it's not like anything else significant happened over the weekend.
If the numbers tighten anymore then 5 points then I will have a cornary. If Ras keeps O over 50-51 % and McCain at 45-46 we are fine but if it tightens more to like 49-47 we could be in trouble. Tommorow it will be O 50 M 46/47 just a guess.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:44 AM
Colorado is not close.
All others you mention, minus Indiana, FL Missouri (which have statisticall tiny leads for Obama) have been consistent 2-6% leads for Obama.
I am not even talking about a poll asshole. I am talking about a polling observation you **** face.
Whether PPP is a Dem pollster or not doesn't make that article any less insightful or worth reading. Rasmussen is an evangelical Republican but you don't see the more liberal commenters here saying that Rasmussen is garbage when he puts out polls they don't like.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:45 AM
People need to stop looking at the margin of victory, and start looking at where their candidate sits. For McCain supporters, you could say you got a good chunk of late breakers sunday. Obama supporters, he's still above 50%, and isn't losing support.
Now, I think he's a trash pollster, and he sensationalizes too much, but look at Zogby today. Both McCain and Obama trended upwards. The only way for that to happen is for undecideds to decide. We're eight days out. I think it's fair to say undecideds are going to start deciding, and that's what you're seeing.
But make no mistake. McCain had a very good polling Sunday.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:46 AM
This race is tightening and tightening fast.
My gosh, you're grasping at anything! What movement. Ras was Obama+4 a month ago and today it is Obama+5. Is that the tightening you're referring to? Almost makes me long for the days when you got one poll out there a month if you were lucky. These days, you get every swinging d**k out there running a poll every day so lurchers like you have something to say OMG!OMG!OMG!OMG! about.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:48 AM
The odd part is that in his commentary, Rasmussen seems to find this wholly unremarkable. It makes me wonder if he has take sides?
Nah, I think it means that a very good Obama day in all the trackers (Thursday) rolled off, and a pretty good Obama day rolled on. Let's remember that Ras was at O50-M46 for a long time. So, hypothetically Ras' last several days could look like:
Again, these are my made-up numbers, but they show how Ras could swing 3 points (due to one odd day) but it still be a stable race.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:49 AM
OMG! OMG! OMG! BREAKING NEWS!!
McSame always polls better on weekends, since rethugs are sitting at home watching fox news all day. Democrats have lives and use the weekends to enjoy them.
We go through this same "fake surge" every monday, only to see it settle back to a higher lead as the week goes on. All the wingnuts get excited early in the week, just to discredit all the same polls later in the week when the lead widens for Obama yet again.
Bottom line, if you actually READ Rasmusse: "but up a point from the lead he held a week ago. With today’s results, Obama has been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 32 straight days." State polls are all that really matter, and Obama is spanking McSame in red states left and right.
btw- HOW'S AZ LOOKING LATELY??
LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE
Battleground has Obama +3, about where it's been for the last 6 days.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:51 AM
Obama average advantage on RCP is +7.6 now, was +8.2 at his high-water mark. I'll take this anyday. It looks surprisingly stable since the economic meltdown and I expect it to remain the same for another week.
Mixed news today on state polls but even if the outcome is "neutral", with McCain advantages in WV, IN and a tie in FL being offset by Obama advantages in VA (now solidifying), OH, MO and NV, it is ADVANTAGE OBAMA. One more day going by means mroe and more solid concrete at the feet of McCain,
ready do be dumped in cold water.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:52 AM
you persist in trying to propagate this myth that somehow pollsters are to be judged by who they poll for. It's just more of the conspiracy theory crap. You really need to stop reading all those wingnut web sites and join the real world.
In any case, you can hardly accuse Rasmussen of pro-dem bias, and Obama has been in the 50-52 range on the Rasmussen tracker all month, it's been remarkably steady. What we are seeing now is McCain picking up a little of his loose support, but not making much headway into Obama's support, which is what he needs to do. He's looking bad in PA and bad in VA and without those two he's dead.
I wouldn't worry too much about the national trackers, everyone. Weekends are never good for Obama and this could easily be more of a good day of Thursday polling falling off rather than a bad day of polling Sunday.
Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, and VA. Those states will go Obama and there is no polling that shows or otherwise. It's as simple as that. Bonuses like NC, FL, OH, MO, and IN would be nice, but let's face it...with roughly a third of the public expected to vote early, even a dead heat on election day won't have much of an impact.
suppose obama was shown in a good light when we went to visit 'toot'. Wouldnt of thought it would move so many though.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:53 AM
And one more thing. Please, please, please explain to me how this translates into an electoral victory for McRage. Any path at all? If you're looking to just lose this thing respectably, then congratulations - looks like you might do that. Clinton beat Dole by 8 percentage points in the popular vote and that translated into a 379-159 thumping in the EC. Obama will win by 5 or 6 points in the popular vote and won't get quite that kind of ass-whipping in the EC that Clinton got, so in that sense I agree with you. If you're just looking to not get Reagan-Mondale embarassed, then kudos...
@Steve_OH: I know it is unlikely...I don't really believe it myself-just saying Obama's big lead in the popular vote can at least partially be attributed to states that won't matter in the EC.
Re: Rasmussen's results today. I agree with the two points jeepdad just made. And there has been movement like this (both ways) in Rasmussen's polls throughout this election season, although it's been more rare in his daily tracker than in others. When it does happen, he usually warns that it could just be statistical noise. Most of the time, it's exactly that. Zogby, on the other hand, makes it sound as if the tectonic plates have shifted. As Blumenthal noted, Obama's current 5pt lead in Zogby is actually a return to his mean after that wacky 10pt Obama lead last week.
However, let's assume that there was real movement in Rasmussen. In the internals, the only demo that experienced a significant shift was among white women. Everything else looks about the same as it did yesterday. I'm sorry, but "Obama is a socialist" isn't an argument that is going to sway a lot of female voters, no matter what race or economic class they belong to. I just posted a question about the effect of the now discredited "poor white girl attacked by crazy Obama supporter" story. That is the type of thing that would sway white women voters. Is Rasmussen's tracker today showing the effect of the original response to that story, before the hoax was revealed? I'm thinking that it probably took a good day (into Sunday afternoon, maybe even later) for the hoax confirmation to make the rounds and get the attention of a lot of folks. McCain could have had a great Saturday afternoon and Sunday AM/early afternoon due to the original story. Now that people know that it was BS race-baiting, they'll swing back.
Just a theory. Thoughts?
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:54 AM
It is hilarious that you call Ram is liberally bias.. he is on Fox almost everyday.. FOX.. he is never on any other station either.. so I think the fact he knows Obama is in the same position he has been in for 3 monday's now is the real reason he did not make a big deal about the drop.. PPP is Dem leaning, but I would argue the same for RAM.. anyway you can not look at one poll by it self.. you need to look at all of them.. Obama has been peaking on Thur-fri at around 8 to 8.5 and bottoms out around Mon-Tuesday around 5-6%.. reguardless of how you think the polls are going being +5 or 6 is a big advantage, taking the average and not something that will be made up in one week.. Boom you have been saying this for 4 weeks about McCain coming back... come up with something new..
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:55 AM
boomshak uses the word "SHOCKER" alot.
reminds me of those tabloids in the checkout line of grocery stores.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:56 AM
"John McCain is finally on the message I have been begging for for 3 months now - Electing Obama means total liberal control."
You're so ****ing insane
In case you forget, there's only one remaining before the old guy is toast
I thing you're guy is running out of time, ideas and ...
President Obama get used of it
@Voltron Defender of the Universe
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:57 AM
Just FYI on the early turnout for Palin's rally in Fredericksburg at noon today.
Maybe there will be a surge in the coming hour or so, but not a huge turnout so far. Granted, it is a workday, while Obama's rally in F'burg was during the weekend.
As for Drudge, mystic, I'm sure that there are some undecideds who do go to Drudge throughout the day.
I'm not sure if saving the kitchen sink for the last 2 weeks would have been a good idea for McCain, either. It's too transparent. And what has he been using for the last few weeks anyway? Ayers, Acorn, and socialism. That stuff didn't work a few weeks ago and it wouldn't have worked had he saved it up for this week.
The only effective argument he does have is warning of Dem control of the executive and legislative branches. That might scare some undecideds, but I'm not sure if that's even enough to swing the election to him at this point.
Posted on October 27, 2008 9:59 AM
LET ME REPHRASE IT
You're so ****ing insane
In case you forget, there's only one week remaining before the old guy is toast
I thing your guy is running out of time, ideas and ...
President Obama get used of it
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:01 AM
Just to add to my previous e-mail: Apparently, Obama addressed the one-party control of the presidency and Congress in an interview in Colorado Springs yesterday, so he's not even letting that attack go unanswered.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:02 AM
'In the internals, the only demo that experienced a significant shift was among white women'
do you think white women may have moved over when he went to visit his grandmother before moving back again?
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:03 AM
I wouldn't take much comfort in the RCP average being plus 7. You must realize they include the MSM polls that favor Obama considerably.
GWU is the poll that shows the true state of the race. The others are sliding towards it, adjusting their style of questioning and even their formulas.
This means the race is at 3%. Obama wins at 3% but here's the delicious irony: since the MSM worked so hard to build an Obama landslide narrative including commissioning polls weighted heavily in favor of Obama, now, as they all get close to the finish line and want to be right instead of politcially right, the new narrative emerging is McCain is on a roll.
And that narrative could take root. No question about it, this morning we see it happening on the talk shows, on internet sites, and even here in the comments.
So the pro-Obama media spin comes back to haunt them.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:05 AM
Copying from elsewhere: Reality Check.
Daily trackers comparison - last Monday/Today
Avg. Difference: O +0.75
A surge, a surge I tell you.
Looking back, it does seem that Obama polls badly at weekends and then picks up again.
Hmmm... can anybody else say Cellphone effect?
Uh, one more thing: the stock market is opening UP. Why? Because of this change of narrative. The market is terrified of an Obama presidency.
If you want to make some money this week, buy stocks every morning that shows a McCain gain.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:07 AM
haha.. no. The grandma thing didn't move anything. The crazy girl carving letters into her face didn't move anything. And sorry, but Palin's wardrobe didn't move anything. This is all cable news TV fodder, little else. It's the economy, period. It's people sick of the GOP, period. It's McCain looking like a curmudgeonny old constipated grandpa.. period. Dissect everything if you want, but it's way more simple. Not to mention the ranks of truly "undecided" are incredibly small and shrinking fast.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:08 AM
"boomshak uses the word "SHOCKER" alot.
reminds me of those tabloids in the checkout line of grocery stores.
It reminds me of this things with two fingers and... never mind.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:10 AM
"I wouldn't take much comfort in the RCP average being plus 7. You must realize they include the MSM polls that favor Obama considerably."
By MSM, do you include FOX? because he shows a lead of 9 for Obama which is convergent with RAS, GALLUP, ABC and Newsweek, and even much higher than the CNN one
So per you logic FOX is in the tank for Obama
One more week of insane comments
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:14 AM
Hey, did you see Obama's pal William Ayers on Fox? The reporter chases him down at his house. Ayers says, "Get off my property." Then he calls the cops on him.
Interesting coming from a man who calls all property "theft" and all cops "pigs."
What a hypocritcal wussy. Maybe he's help drive these improving McCain numbers.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:16 AM
Fox's polls have overstated Obama's strength and they are already correcting as they all will this week as we approach the finish line.
Why would Fox, who is in the tank for McCain, do this?
1. They really do try to be "fair and balanced." That's why they actually have diverse viewpoints on all their shows and interviews.
2. Fox has the poor-boy-doesn't-belong-here syndrome. They wanted to bend over backwards to show they aren't pro-McCain.
3. Everyone probably really thought early on that all this buzz about the Cult of O would result in bigger turnout for him. Now the truth is setting in.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:19 AM
"do you think white women may have moved over when he went to visit his grandmother before moving back again?"
I don't think so. They've been pretty much tied among this demo for a while now. Today, McCain leads 51-46 among that group. I think just yesterday Obama was only down 1 and the day before that he was up by 1. I really think the fake attack story may have temporarily (I hope) swung some white women away from Obama. (because it represented their greatest fear - their young, innocent [not so much in this case, of course] daughter getting attacked and fondled by a big scary black man) Once they realize they were duped, they may actually swing back even more strongly in the other direction.
Obama (48) and McCain (49) are still basically tied among men today in Rasmussen. The fake "socialist" attacks would have their strongest effect among the male demographic.
Again, just a theory. But McCain's 5pt lead among white women today is, by far, his largest in a long time in Rasmussen's daily tracker, going all the way back to mid-September. I have to think the attack story played some role here - again, it's exactly the type of story that would resonate with white, female voters, especially those who don't align strongly with either party.
Still, McCain's in a world of trouble if he goes into election day leading Obama among white women by only 5 or less points. I believe Bush won these voters by 10+pts in 2004.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:20 AM
You're right Max, he should have invoked his 2d amendment right and blew the guy's head off. And it will drive up McCain's #s, because EVERYBODY watches Fox news and acts sycophantically at every image and word they see on the only fair and balanced network.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:23 AM
I'd say the most likely explanation is that this is all just random noise and maybe a bit of a weekly cyclical effect. The second most likely explanation is that Obama ran up a bit last week thanks to things like the Powell endorsement, the $150,000 clothing scandal, and some bad polling for McCain, and now the combined effects of all that bad news for McCain is receding a bit. Only after both those alternative explanations would I put any sort of Todd effect, and my primary evidence would be that we are actually cycling back approximately to where we were at this point last week.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:26 AM
Although on reflection, you make a good point about the crosstabs.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:29 AM
Clearly some tighting here when you look at the weekly avgs, but with O still holding at 50+ and M unable to break 41 this is not good for McCain at this point.
10/5-11 O-51.71 M-40.43 (D +11.29)
10/12-18 O-51.86 M-41.14 (D +10.71)
10/19-25 O-50.86 M-41.29 (D +9.57)
10/26-27 O-50.50 M-41 (D+9.5)
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:34 AM
3 weeks ago there was another FOX showing +7 for (Guess who) which was in line or convergent with the MSM media such as ABC and Time Magazine.
So let me know how you gonna spin this one
Oh wait let me guess Obama's strength was also overstated ?
One more week of insane comments
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:35 AM
I won't be concerned at all unless VA, CO, IA, NM, and NH start to corroborate any McCain "surge." Right now, that's just not happening.. in fact it seems to be going the other way. I'm not even counting on OH, FL, Mo, or NC. That's all gravy right now.. and if McCain loses ANY of those he's toast anyway, and those are all 50/50 at best right now. Don't be fooled by the trolls. You don't have Palin bucking the ticket and all the McCain campaign rats jumping ship because they think they're within striking distance.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:36 AM
and right on cue..
Ouch.. here's a swift kick the groin of the big McCain "comeback" haha..
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:45 AM
Like I said man, I think you need to get a life.
Polls fluctuate. They do that. This is due to what's called random sampling. What you need to learn is that for all the pointless arguing you do here, it won't change the outcome on election day. Bashing heads with these immature liberals is not getting you anywhere.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:47 AM
Reminder to all: State polls lag national polls by at least a half-week. The important one to watch is national poll numbers. While it's true McCain could win the EV without the PV, you'll know best who's going to win by watching the PV. If it's close, McCain wins.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:57 AM
I think you're grasping a straws and hungry of good news but it looks little bit too late
Posted on October 27, 2008 11:04 AM
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