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US: Obama 50, McCain 42 (Hotline 10/23-25)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/23-25, 08; 878 LV 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 42

 

Comments
PJ_FFM:

So, McCain is down, not by one, but by one more... ;-)

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kerrchdavis:

I'm still waiting for it to be tied by Sunday boomshak...you're running out of "Sundays"

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MNLatteLiberal:

first!

Good lord, was McCain floundering on Meet the Press with Brokaw or what?

And that Wilson woman from NM - where do I donate to her opponent? Hideous and smug liar!

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blakec:

I'm sorry did you read "he would be even by Sunday"?

I think that should have read "he will be even Someday."

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MNLatteLiberal:

ok, so third. but look at the company I'm in! LOL

Kerrch, what do you want to bring boom back? If we all you ask nicely?! *g*

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Vokoban:

No, it's "He will be Eve by Sunday..."

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Trosen:

I think boom meant he would be even with where Dole was in '96 by Sunday. and I think he's close.

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kerrchdavis:

@MN

what do I want to bring boom back?

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boomshack:

look moonbats, I posted a comprehensive analysis on why these polls are DEAD wrong in another thread. I don't want to spam, but if you want, I can repost - it proves why McCain is really ahead.

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OneAngryDwarf:

I'm still waiting for boom to show up today and tell us how Obama has been caught in a foreign car having gay sex with an underaged boy, while snorting cocaine bought from William Ayers and Osama bin Laden, as he's drafting the new "Communist Manifesto."

Or tell us that by next Sunday the race will be a statistical tie again...

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshack

what exactly is a moonbat? Is that a creature that feasts on kool aid?

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MNLatteLiberal:

@kerrchdavis,
LMAO. Amazing timing. Whatever you want, you got it, buddy! LMAO yet again. :)

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NextAmericanChapter:

Geez, Brokaw on Meet the Press just took McCain out to the woodshed and gave him a whacking...

In unrelated news, someone stole my Obama yard sign last night. BoomShak is not from NH, is he?

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MNLatteLiberal:

Ah, 1Angry, you are here. Want to talk Palin gone rogue?

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MNLatteLiberal:

John King is talking to Wolf Blitzer now about the Diva/Rogue thing right now on CNN

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Froggy:

"Obviously, I choose to trust my senses as well as the polls. I've been in a lot of presidential campaigns. I see the intensity out there, I see the passion. We're very competitive out there." - John McCain, October 26, 2008

"There's something going on in this country and the pollsters aren't getting it. Nobody who's been with me for the last few days and has seen these crowds, seen their response, seen their enthusiasm, seen the intensity of their response and how they respond to these issues, no one who's been where I've been, can help but believe that there's something happening in this country." - Walter Mondale, October 30, 1984

This election is beginning to have a familiar feel to it.

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kerrchdavis:

@MN

@kerrchdavis,
LMAO. Amazing timing. Whatever you want, you got it, buddy! LMAO yet again. :)

I DON'T UNDERSTAND!!!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

Absolutely that hag has gone off the reservation BIG TIME!!!

Did you see the new "Obama's a Communist" speech that shes rolling out now?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/25/palin-obamas-tax-plans-co_n_137851.html

Fantastic stuff. Like falling back in time to 1920's with a Fargo accent.

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straight talk:

Why in the hell is the McCain Camp in Iowa? That state is like PA! Obama has a double digits! Look for John and Sarah to remain seperated the rest of the Campaign! I hear that the infighting is starting to spill over! McCain needs to bring Obama's numbers down nationally or he will be sorry! But if Obama Carry's Colorodo it is all over! But I think he will carry OHIO, Virginia. So election night will be over very soon.

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JerryTheAngel:

Watching McCain on MTP today was uncomfortable for me. I thought the man was going to have a nervous breakdown on national TV. How any Republican can be motivated by this man is beyond me. He's the picture of despair, desperation, and pessimism.

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MNLatteLiberal:

With this many leaks in all those numerous unnamed sources in both McCain camp and Palin camp pointing fingers at each other, it is a bit like McCain trying to plug up all the leaking Bush red states. He simply does not have enough fingers. There is a TON of dissent and a major fissure or two for all those staffers to sing so loudly that even CNN picks it up.

Serves McCain right for vetting the Diva so thoroughly. I cannot remember the last time the political POETIC JUSTICE was served so swiftly! Welcome to the next level, Republicans. 21st century is gonna hurt big time.

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Trosen:

I predict some improvement for McCain in today's Gallup, and some subsequent excitement and self-gratification on the boards from the resident trolls.

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In regards to Heather Wilson on Late Edition, the good news is you do not have to donate to her opponent, is all ready toast.

She was raised to be the successor to Pete Dominici's seat in the senate but was beat in the primaries but another Republican that was suppose to loose. So she is didn't run in the primary for her rep seat and is out, and lost the primary for the senate seat so she is done.

The story is great because it means the RNC was so pissed at the reb that ran against her they refused to help him out. So thats an automatic +1 dem in the senate. Her old seat though is in a death grip between Martin Heinrich and Darren White, Henrich is an awesome democrate and White is a classic Bush republican. So keep an eye out on that race election day.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@kerrchdavis,
I don't understand that one either. but you can't argue with the timing :)

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SoloBJ:

@Trosen,
Frank from Gallup already hinted on MSNBC this morning that their poll today will show a "tightening" of 1-2 points. He said he doesn't really see any trends and that Obama and McCain's numbers continue to go up and down while Obama maintains his lead.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@tmtoulouse,
thanks, i had no idea she was a lame duck. great news, indeed. will keep my eye out on the Heinrch/White race now for sure. thanks again.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

I keep hearing on the Sunday talk shows that she is the future of the party. What am I missing here? She's a disaster everytime she goes off script and the only people that think she's adorable, believe that the Earth is 5000 years old.

She had cleft the Republican party into at least two distinct parts and you can really hear the bulkheads breaking up as the ship slips into the deep blue sea.

How anyone can say with a straight face that she's going to survive her next gubernatorial campaign, let alone a Republican Primary should have their mental health examined.

The last number I saw on her were something like 47% unfavorable and sinking like a stone. I think President Bush called to give her a pep talk on those numbers.

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Vokoban:

That McCain guy isn't even able to manage a crisis in his campaign office. If he gets elected the world doesn't need to test him. The world KNOWS already he will not be up to the task of an international crisis.

Silly ole bugger!

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straight talk:

Gallup will likely go unchanged! Really all you have to know with Gallup is the Rv sample! It is the one that has been right 99% of the time when determining who would be president with Al GOre as the lone exception. I think McCain got 2-3 days before the Obama event of the year! Bill and Barack starts wensday and OBama takes over primetime that night! His poll numbers are going to climb again! He is will be up by 5% in Florida!

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MNLatteLiberal:

kids, we got a week and a day left to watch the Republicans self-destruct. The finger pointing and the blame game started a couple of days ago. It will snowball into a real bloodletting, and with any luck BEFORE the 4th. With some of the Palinistas pissed off and staying home in protest against McCain, this indeed, could be very, very sweet.

Maybe we CAN get to 60. Si se puede!

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licinfl:


What's a moonbat?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonbat

As I said in previous post
1- read boom's latest rant
2- review boom's record of accuracy
FAIL
NEXT

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MNLatteLiberal:

i have to run my son off to a study group. brb in an hour. 1Angry, will talk

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OneAngryDwarf:

This week in the news should be interesting. I wonder how they are going to fill up the cycle before Wednesday?

After that it will be all Obama all the time until the weekend. Do we hear more of the "Obama is a communist" meme from Palin? What new horror story awaits us in the MSM pushed by the Republican smear machine?

Does it really matter? As far as I can tell the race is really stable nationally and nothing much has moved the dials in at least the last two weeks. Are we just coasting on the leading edge of the landslide at this point?

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blakec:

@OneAngryDwarf
"I keep hearing on the Sunday talk shows that she is the future of the party. What am I missing here? She's a disaster"


I believe you wrote your own answer. She is the future of the party and she is a disaster...

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Vokoban:

"What's a moonbat?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonbat"

Well, that explains, why Obama is sky-rocketing.

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ErnieLynch:

DuBois Courier_Express/Tri-County News in the heart of the PA "T" endorses Obama.

http://www.thecourierexpress.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=20178101&BRD=2758&PAG=461&dept_id=572980&rfi=6

Take that ShackBats..

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Steve_OH:

Anyone else notice that GA just turned yellow?

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Gallup:
Obama-50%, McCain-45% (Traditional LV Model)

Obama-52%, McCain-43% (Expanded LV Model)

There is that dramatic "tightening" forcasted.

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mysticlaker:

McCain surge with gallup. Finally. Praise Jesus.

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SoloBJ:

Well, Gallup poll is better than I thought it would be. Looks like Frank was just teasing with all of the "tightening" talk.

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Vokoban:

That is basically statistically tied...

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mysticlaker:

I like to thank boomshak once again for his statistical tie.

Praise Jesus.

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DecaturMark:

I like GA being yellow. It would be nicer in light blue, but I will take yellow at this time.

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mysticlaker:

Praise Jesus. Statistical Tie.

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Thatcher:

@Steve_OH:

Holy Crap - you are right ... Georgia IS yellow

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Vokoban:

I mean, let's face it: Obama is toast! This is a center-right country.

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muckinello:

9 days to go. VOTE!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Vokoban

Might as well give up now. We keep seeing all of this polling data that says we are winning but it just can't be possible.

Why, oh why can't we have a statistical tie...

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ricbrig:

GA turning yellow is a small step for a website but a possible giant leap for humanity.

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mysticlaker:

Praise Jesus. Obama can never win now. Not with the bradley effect, the palin effect, the pow effect, the depends effect, the muslim effect, the terrorist effect, the socialist effect, the ashley todd effect, the snowmobile effect, the douche effect, the jewish effect, the tea-bag effect

Praise Jesus. McCain has this wrapped up now. If Obama is not in double digits this is a statistical tie. Praise Jesus.

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Vokoban:

@ Dwarf,
why we moonbats even consider there's any sense in voting is beyond me!
America will never vote for a black candidate.

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mysticlaker:

Praise Jesus that moonbats only support Obama. Moonbats will forget to vote, don't know to organize, are poor and can't fund Obama, don't have job, and are socialist. Praise Jesus for Moonbats.

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Northeastern Republican:

It is my understanding that mccain is about to run 4 commercials in the battlegrounds for every 5 obama ads, something we know he has been unable to do most of the election due to obama's attempt at buying a victory. it is also my understanding that there is a 527 out there that has finally raised enough money to run a lot of rev. wright ads, which as we all know is the issue that cost obama a lot of his victories in the later primaries against hillary. so with this in mind, can anyone give an OBJECTIVE opinion regarding whether they think mccain being able to match obama in his advertising budget this last week and having the help of a 527 running a message that has been proven to work in the past - do you think it will cause any late game tightening in the polls? and why or why not?

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RussTC3:

Gallup RV (n/c)
Obama 51
McCain 42

Gallup LV-Expanded (Obama +1)
Obama 52
McCain 43

Gallup LV-Traditional (Obama -1, McCain +1)
Obama 50
McCain 45

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OneAngryDwarf:

Chuck Todd commenting on one possible reason that GA just went yellow here on Pollster.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/chuck-todd-african-americ_n_137928.html

Big AA turnout and lots of early voting shows a dominant Obama position. A thing of beauty to behold.

Waiting for boomtool to tell us how every single poll is flawed and that McCain actually leads byt 10-12 points. McCain - 538, Obama - 0. We are a center-right country and we'll never vote for a liberal like Obama.

In fact I now am starting to question my own values. Maybe I'm center right and just don't know it...

Oh the humanity!!!

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zen:


I feel the poll is now quite stable...
And the gap might widen a bit after his 30 minutes prime time on TV on Wednesday.

I feel confident we can get EV 375+ and 8 percent edge in popular vote.
With a landslide victory, Obama will be in a good position to lead the country in this crisis

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Vokoban:

@ NR

It doesn't even matter. McCain could have 5 times the budget of Obama, it wouldn't help unless he steps back from his 100% negativity.

The American people in its majority is sick and tired of this stuff. It needs solution, no erratic smearing.

Wright would be the last nail in McCain's coffin.

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mysticlaker:

@NE republican....

All polls indicate that 90%+ of voters will not change their mind at this point. Obama is starting with leads in the red states due to early voting(NC/GA/FL, etc). I am sorry to tell you, but it's too late. It might have been effective if McCain didn't go negative in mid-Sept. It would have had a greater effect. But after you call someone a terrorist, a socialist, a communist, a goat-****er (well, not really but might as well), it's hard to make folks take you seriously. He's lost all credibilty. Anyone looking for an excuse not to vote for Obama has already found it. Praise Jesus.

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Thatcher:

NE Republican: Here's an objective opinion. It's too little ... too late. Look at the 2004 October trends on RCP average for Bush/Kerry. That was a tightening race. Now look at the 2008 October trends on RCP average for Obama/McCain ... it continues all month to trend as an expanding race.

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Northeastern Republican:

oneangrydwarf - we are a center right country. in fact, a majority of americans consider themselves conservatives. this is fact.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Yup and that is why Obama is going to win in a landslide. The hard right veer of the current Republican party away from regular Americans and towards the lunatic fringe make Obama look positively centrist by comparison.

Welcome to the new demcracy.

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Inkan1969:

My Election Day prediction

DEEP BLUE STATES
Obama wins by more than 10%

VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, DE, DC, MD, IL, CA, HI

LIGHT BLUE STATES
Obama wins by less than 10%

ME, NJ, OR, WA (Kerry States, possible wins by more than 10% instead)
NH, PA, MI, WI, MN (Kerry Battleground States)
VA, IA, NM, CO, NV (Obama Firewall for the win)
NC, FL, OH, IN, MO (Obama Landslide)

LIGHT RED STATES
McCain wins by less than 10%
GA, ND, MT (Maybe Obama Landslides state instead)
NE (Two districts are light red, maybe Obama Landslide. State overall is deep red)
WV, MS, TX, SD, AZ

DEEP RED STATES
McCain wins by more than 10%
SC, TN, KY, AR, KS, AK (Possible wins by less than 10% instead, with strong Obama effort)
AL, LA, OK, WY, UT, ID

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zotz:

Northeastern Republican-
Most of the time the polls do tighten in the last week because the undecideds start to break. Rev Wright was played over and over ad nauseum on FOX and CNN during the primaries. The number of people that have not already taken Wright into account is very small. The total failure of the Ayers attacks should indicate how successful Wright attacks would be. FOX has tried to portray Obama as an angry black radical on Hannity or Greta van Sustern's Obama programs. Do you think that stuff is convincing?

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Thatcher:

NE Republican: Here's an objective opinion. It's too little ... too late. Look at the 2004 October trends on RCP average for Bush/Kerry. That was a tightening race. Now look at the 2008 October trends on RCP average for Obama/McCain ... it continues all month to trend as an expanding race.

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Vokoban:

NR: everybody considers himself to be conservative in certain matters. Be it fiscally, social, whatever.

So that is basically a word without meaning in this context.

The GOP somehow managed to make conservative a positive word - and liberal a negative.

so no wonder even among Dems there are a lot of people who consider themselves conservative.

I'm a fiscal conservative, but I'm also as liberal as it gets.

So if someone asks me if I'm conservative? Hell, the answer depends on how I'm asked.

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Inkan1969:

@Northeastern Republican

Yes, we are a CENTER right nation, not a HARD right nation. We may not be the EU, but we're not Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia either.

This is why the Dems nominated Barack Obama, instead of Dennis Kucinich. And this is why Barack Obama is in the lead, instead of Cynthia McKinney or Ralph Nader.

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Northeastern Republican:

well the reason i ask is with there still being a decent number of undecideds out there - and with mccains biggest problem being that he has been unable to compete financially - i wonder what the impact would be in the final 9 days if mccain could all of a sudden compete financially in the battlegrounds. let us not forget that elections have narrowed or widened in the final days of the race before - and there are a lot of unknowns in this years election which i think is evidenced pretty well by gallups "two takes" on the likely voter scenarios. considering roughly 39-45% of americans will likely vote for john mccain, i think its way too early to begin assuming hes far out of touch with the feelings of many americans and that hes too far out of the game to stand a chance at winning. lets say hes set to win 45% of the vote and obama is set to win 50 or 51%. well, if he could all of a sudden run enough ads to sway the opinions of 2% of obama supporters, it becomes a 47% to 48 or 49% race. it doesnt take a lot - im just curious of theoretical ways he could still do it.

sorry to be a downer on all of the obama fans here but the political junkie in me loves discussing all of the realalistic possibilities and what could effect the outcome. does an obama win seem likely? absolutely. does it seem definite? no. i imagine one of the biggest fears in the obama campaign right now is that this all seems to good to be true. its going to take a lot to win a wider majority of the popular vote than any democrat has in over 40 years - and even more to win a larger majority of the popular vote than any non-incumbent democrat has since FDR did in 1932.

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mysticlaker:

@NE

Outside some extraordinay event (ie Obama really is a goat ****er), it's getting impossible.

Nate at 538 made an observation that nothing at the national level has really changed since the second debate.

Not true on your last statement. The path to 270 is laid, the path to 320 is laid. The question is the path to 375, or 390. Obama could win with an popular vote loss now.

Praise Jesus.

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Basil:

I'll take the 1835 moonbat reference if that's OK, and stretch it a bit.

Across the night sky
A million moonbats gliding
Silver wings of hope



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OneAngryDwarf:

McCain's biggest problem is Sarah Palin. She's a bigger problem than George Bush, she's a bigger problem than the economy, she is a wrecking ball on his campaign at this point in time.

She has tremendous unfavorable numbers compared to the other candidates and Independents are scared to death that a pure Christian Dominionist would somehow sneak into the White House.

Sarah is driving people away from the Republican party and driving voters to the polls to vote against her. She excites the base wackos but they were rabid anyway and there aren't enough of them to win. I firmly believe that the economic edge that Obama has generated can be laid directly at the feet of Sarah Palin. It would be interesting if someone did a study that showed if there was a relationship between her antics and the Obama campaigns fundraising.

She made O a lot of money after her announcement, and we all are witness to what can go wrong when you talk all crazy on the TV (aka Michele Bachmann). Now there is a hypothesis worth looking into.

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RossPhx:

Hotline's own story about this says: In addition to leading 50-42% overall, Obama also leads men 50-42% and women 50-42%.

Is that possible? Or is this a really unreliable poll?

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laguna_b:

Here is a nightmare for ya... terrorist attack combined with voter suppression and election machine fraud...McCain manages to blow up with Palin on ED and dies of a heart attack, Nov 5. dust clears and Sarah standing there with her smug smile is President.....making plans to imprison all those communists that opposed her in the Un-Patriotic states including all conservative intellectuals....Republicans standing there wondering what they created...teh rest of us....

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laguna_b:

Here is a nightmare for ya... terrorist attack combined with voter suppression and election machine fraud...McCain manages to blow up with Palin on ED and dies of a heart attack, Nov 5. dust clears and Sarah standing there with her smug smile is President.....making plans to imprison all those communists that opposed her in the Un-Patriotic states including all conservative intellectuals....Republicans standing there wondering what they created...teh rest of us....

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Northeastern Republican:

mysticlaker - i agree with you. it would be pretty wild if a presidential nominee won the electoral college while losing the popular vote by a several point margin but it definitely appears likely that even if obama somehow went into election day with a popular vote deficit in the polls that he could still win easily in the ec.

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Mike In Maryland:

mysticlaker?

"the snowmobile effect"

Don't you know it's snow MACHINE?

That little 'fact' was discussed many times by Sarah Baracuda!!

VBG

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DTM:

@Northeastern Republican

I think it is important to note that Obama has devoted a considerable portion of his ad spending to biographical and positive policy ads designed to make people more comfortable with the notion of him as President, something he needed to do since he was relatively new to national politics. So even if McCain could reach parity in ad spending with Obama at this point (and I am not sure that will happen), that probably won't do much to undo Obama's prior get-to-know-me advertising blitz.

Which leads to McCain's basic problem: the American people want to vote out the Republican Party, and will do so as long as they find Obama an acceptable candidate. And after a hotly contested primary, three debates, record spending on ads, and so forth, it appears the American people have accepted Obama. So, the idea that somehow in the last few days McCain will be able to advertise his way out of this situation is a bit far-fetched.

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shirefox:

The Palin/Diva/Rouge thing may have legs this week. Is so, that should cook the week for any McCain/Palin feelgood stories (as if they had any).

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