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US: Obama 50, McCain 42 (Hotline 10/25-27)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/25-27,08; 878 LV 3.3.%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 42

 

Comments
Trosen:

It boggles my mind that 6% of american LVs are still truly "undecided." What part are they missing?

Here's a good article about this phenomenon by David Sedaris:

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2008/10/27/081027sh_shouts_sedaris

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Dan:

@Trosen:

'It boggles my mind that 6% of american LVs are still truly "undecided."'

Mine too. On the weekends, I canvass for the Obama campaign. and just last weekend there were several doors I knocked on for GOTV and the people say they still are undecided. My canned response is: "I see. What issue are you looking to the candidates to provide you answers to, that will help you decide?"
In every single case, I get a deer-in-headlights response. They have no clue. There is no issue that is important to them. They are mostly all say they are frustrated, and the almost always say a variation of "the candidates don't give details, they just dance around questions". But when you ask them what issue they need clarification or detail on, they can't name one.

These people, if they vote at all, will end up making a decision based on something stupid. And the decision probably wont happen until they are in the polling booth.


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dominoid:

New PEW Research National (Likely Voters)

Obama - 53
McCain - 38

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Thatcher:

@Dan -

I've run field operations before and have had the opportunity to be the campaign manager on one where I was the field director the previous cycle.

Here's what I found when I churned the data on who voted in that previous election:

66% of the voters we id'd as for our candidate voted
61% of the voters we id'd as against our candidate voted
38% of the voters we id'd as undecided voted

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zombieflanders:

Frankly, I'm of the opinion that most of the "undecideds" are just people afraid of saying who they're voting for (i.e., McCain). Barring a live-boy-dead-girl moment, they'll likely break to him by a fairly large margin.

Of course, given the electoral math, that'll save him in Montana and North Dakota, and maybe in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, but not in Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Mexico.

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Thatcher:

Undecideds that actually end up voting normally vote AGAINST the incumbent party .. so those that are truly undecided and will vote probably will end up Obama voters - not McCain.

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

"... our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent ... Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger."

I've seen studies about party analysis with similar information.

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thoughtful:

From my canvassing experience:

a good third do not vote. the 60% that potentially do vote - a majority vote on who they think will tax them less or who they will be better off financially with. This time around maybe different as we have an AA candidate. People vote with their pockets in mind.

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DTM:

On reflection it seems to me we really don't have much of a basis for determining which way undecideds will break. Basically, either or both of the incumbent effect and the "Shy Tory" effect could show up, and the net result is really anyone's guess.

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