Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/15-17,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50, McCain 43
So clearly, McCain is picking up steam with his base, but it doesn't seem to be at Obama's expense. It seems the theory that a majority of these "undecideds" were really grumpy Republicans not thrilled about McCain are coming home when the McCain campaign was ultimately forced to play the fear and divisiveness card.
However, there is no evidence that these national poll bounces for McCain are translating at all to crucial state polls. In fact, Obama seems to be widening those margins, or at the very least, they are holding steady. Which means, I still believe these improving national #s for McCain are only indicative of base-rallying GOP strongholds further solidifying.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:26 AM
What's interesting is that the Latino undecided vote dropped in one day from 10% to 3%.
Sampling variation? Or McCain's speech in Florida bad-mouthing the Castro brothers, was all that was needed to make up a lot of minds?
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:31 AM
Ross, that wouldn't show up in a tracking poll the next morning. And this isn't a FL poll. Hispanics in CO and NM could give a rat's ass about Castro.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:36 AM
If the smearKos has McCain down only 7 points..you know that means they're basically tied!
Posted on October 18, 2008 11:10 AM
I suspect Trosen is correct. McCain's apparent abandonment of his mortgage buyback scheme has, I suspect, helped some with the base. And the Joe the Plumber gambit, much like the VP choice helps with the Yahoos in the GOP base.
What I find noteworthy about McCain's numbers is that he is at the same 43-45% range that has characterized his support for almost 20 months, without fail. That appears to be the "generic GOP" candidate percentage. Campaign missteps have pulled him down a bit from time to time, but he has almost never moved significantly about the 43-45 range for any period of time.
Posted on October 18, 2008 11:11 AM
I noted that the KOS changed their polling demo to a plus 9 for Dems rather than the plus 10. I imagine this accounts for a point change. I think the debate did two things. The attacks are solidfying the Republican base and pushing more votes McCain's way, but at the expense of independent voters which seem to be moving Obama's way. we see a steady Gallup, movement in the diegeo for Obama, Rasmussen, slight plus for Obama, while Zogby, and the kos move towards mcCain. The polls are a little everywhere but Obama remains consistently 6 plus points ahead. I don't think there is any trends towards mcCain out of the wholesale electorate; just different groups moving different ways. look for the attacks to step up in the coming weeks and the polls to go all over the place to reflect the appeal and lack of appeal of negative attacks to certain demographics.
Posted on October 18, 2008 11:41 AM
Wow even the Daily KOOK is showing Brotha Man's numbers are falling.
Posted on October 18, 2008 11:48 AM
McCain is "surging"...oh dear. On one hand I kind of miss all the polls when the campaign is over but on the other hand I definately do not because the amount of BS that the polls generate is sometimes overwhelming.
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:20 PM
@ sothern angler : Hey man, I just heard on the police CB that your trailer has been stolen.
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:24 PM
This DailyKos poll shows McCain and Obama race tightening. Right? Admit it. The facts are staring you in the face. Here are some to chew on--
Since Oct. 12 (Obama 53/McCain 40)...Obama is down 3 points and McCain has gained 3 points... and this was a steady trend in both directions.
FYI... political ID was SAME as today's poll:
Democrats 386 (35%)
Republicans 285 (26%)
Independents 330 (30%)
Democrats 385 (35%)
Republicans 286 (26%)
Independents 330 (30%)
Note: McCain has also gained among Republicans (+6), AND Independents (+2) Whereas Obama has LOST Republicans (-2) and Independents (-4).
October 12: McCain/Obama
DEM 7 88
REP 84 8
IND 41 51
DEM 8 87
REP 90 6
IND 43 47
****And that is why I call myself KipTin****
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:12 PM
Get all excited over this if you want.
I'll get excited over the Electoral College polls.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:15 PM
Wow... How can you read "excitement" when I was only "correcting" (nitpicking) misstatements of others. Albeit I admit a bit of gloating over the DailyKos poll finally showing Obamanation that the polls are indeed tightening, because they considered the other polls to be "outliars" (Yes, I meant to spell it that way... a word I coined to describe the egregious misuse of the real term "outlier").
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:44 PM
I think jsh1120 is right about McCain's persistent 43-45% range. This is his sweet spot and he's basically been stuck there.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:56 PM
No, I really didn't think that a speech in Florida would change Latino undecided in a day from 10% to 3% -- perhaps I was too subtle in making the point that if such drastic changes in poll subsets cannot be explained, then maybe the entire poll needs more than one grain of salt.
I would be surprised if Obama kept a 10-point lead nationally, without spending money in half the states where red is a foregone conclusion. I too am watching the battleground states. Or is it fair to still call Virginia, for example, a battleground?
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:11 PM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR