Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/16-18,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50, McCain 43
Just noticed something very odd on this poll with it's silly sample.
DailyKos is giving Dems a 15 point advantage in generic congressional preference. Gallup just reported this lead is 6.
Perhaps that is due to the silly 26% Republican sample?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:14 AM
Obama inches up another point in Rasmussen, more or less confirming that the R2K movement likely represents regression to the mean. This is a 4-8 point race and should end 53-47 minus a point from either due to Nader or Barr.
Also, Obama raised $150,000,000 in September. According to most analysts, "Daaaaaaaaaaaamn, that's a lot of cheese, Barack!"
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:21 AM
Not only is $ 150,000,000 a lot of cheese, I think that the Obama Campaign will have trouble allocating all this money wisely... of course, this should not discourage anyone who wishes to donate, but, hey, you really have to be careful not to look like you're overkilling with amounts like this...
On the other hand - what was this initial DEM idea again? A 50-states-campaign? Sounds doable now... Could even turn out to produce more coattails than usual...
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:50 AM
I would would buy another chunk of air time on the nov 2nd if money permits to offset anything mccain mite sucker punch with durring the final week.
Posted on October 19, 2008 10:27 AM
Daily Kos poll is coming more in line with the other polls. Interesting.
Posted on October 19, 2008 12:02 PM
Silly sample? 1100 Telephone Interviews?
And the respondants are "self-stating" their Congressional preference.
I would think that the Republicans who are actually interested in the views of the American electorate would look at this and think "What are we doing wrong? Precisely how can we regain some of that support?" rather than saying that the reality is erroneous.
The fact is that there are surveys that are "weighing" party preference (like Rasmussen) based upon some obscure set of external factors...and those that are not doing this, but letting the chips fall where they may. The latter may "weigh" but are doing so on age, gender and ethnic balances.
I think it would behoove us to examine these differences in the polls...and hope that some day pollsters actually provide their "raw data" so that we can actually see shifts in "partisan" voter preference which may be of significant importance in their results.
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:42 PM
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