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US: Obama 50, McCain 43 (Daily Kos 10/25-27)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/25-27, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 43

 

Comments
DTM:

Yet another poll where the daily increased yesterday but the average decreased.

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zotz:

Latest SUSA poll of OH has Obama up 49 to 45. Eight of the last nine OH polls have had Obama in the lead. The only exception was a Strategic Vision poll.

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Misrule13:

That's the problem with trackers, when a *really* good day rolls off, and a less good - though improving - one rolls on.

Interestingly, Kos' figures point out that nearly all McCain's gains are in the south, where he really doesn't need them.

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platanoman:

hmmm weird.

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SoloBJ:

Tomorrow we should see Obama's lead dip another point or two unless he has another big polling day. He did gain a point in last night's polling and is still at the 50% mark.

"On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +9 Sat, +5 Sunday and +6 Mon, with a +11 Friday sample rolling off.

Here is the tracker-only, high-sensitivity pollster.com graph. What's clear is that tightening is more McCain creeping up than Obama dropping. However, it is not enough to change the election trajectory, as yet another day falls off the calendar, and McCain-Palin pre-post-mortems continue to be written in public."


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mysticlaker:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8247ab3a-7593-421d-8100-61e6e00ebc0b

O 49
M 45

Ohio has started to firm up.

already voted 56-39

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decided:
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boomshak:

OBAMA DOWN 6 POINTS ON DAILYKOS

...in just a week. And this is a poll with an idiotic sample of only 26% Republicans.

Look at this last week Obamunists. ALL the momentum is to McCain. What will EVERYONE be talking about for the next week?

Two words:

Wealth Redistribution (a.k.a. Socialism, a.k.a. Marxism)

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DecaturMark:

Anyone notice that Pollster's map has 272 EV in the STRONG column for Obama?

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angrytoxicologist:

While R2K is better today than yesterday for Obama, the fact remains that it's not nearly as good as last week. A lot of people were expecting the monday numbers to go back up (BO doesn't poll well on weekends). It didn't. If the single day margin tomorrow isn't much larger than today (bringing the overall tracker closer to the beginning of last week), I think we can say it's tightening.

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boomshak:

@decided:

SUSA: OH Obama +4
already voted Obama +16

BULLSH*T ALERT!
That poll gives Dems a 10 point sampling advantage. Wrong. Fail. Next.

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angrytoxicologist:

@ Misrule13

This is the key point that we should all be paying attention to: where is the support showing up at? Actually, no, don't pay attention at all, just look at the polls in the battleground states, it's all up to them.

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sunnymi:

@Boomshak, Look at these numbers before making stupid statements!

R2K: 50-43(10/28); 50-42(10/21)
Ras: 50-46(10/27); 50-46(10/20)
IBD: O+7.3 (max); O+3.9(ave); O+ 2.8(yesterday)

When did Obama lead by +12 on IBD..the most he ever got on this tracker was a +7.3 for one single day....if you average all the 15 releases he has done so far it comes to O+3.9 and yesterday he was at O+2.8 (not far off the mean).

That just leaves the "swinging" Zogby for you to hang your hat on..do you even think before you write!

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paradski:

What will EVERYONE be talking about for the next week?

Two words:
Wardrobe Malfuction

thanks Sarah!

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Northeastern Republican:

i dont think early voter turnout is a sign for who will win an individual state. just like on election day how we often see most republicans voting after 4 or 5pm.

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bmrKY:

"zotz:
Latest SUSA poll of OH has Obama up 49 to 45. Eight of the last nine OH polls have had Obama in the lead. The only exception was a Strategic Vision poll."

Awesome. Good to see Ohio starting to wake up. I still have my doubts about it, but I feel better about it than I did a few weeks ago.

And for what it's worth, a poster over at DKos named Daniel Gruhn said he had inside info on the SUSA polls for today and he already accurately called the Ohio poll for Obama before it was released. He also says SUSA will show polls that have Obama ahead in Florida and North Carolina, and that the SUSA Georgia poll will show a "dead heat." He also apparently has inside info from a Howey-Gauge poll from Indiana (supposedly the best Indiana pollster, along with Selzer) and it will show Obama up 2. Should be interesting to see if all of that pans out like his Ohio info did. Personally, I think he sounds like he knows what he is talking about and should be given the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

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Kjartan:

Boomshak, why are you always talking about communism, read something about it, think of historical examples. I hate those people who play down those criminal systems like GDR.

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sunnymi:

@boomshak, "That poll gives Dems a 10 point sampling advantage. Wrong. Fail. Next."

How many times do I have to tell you that SUSA does not sample or adjust weight by party ID....they hold Demographics like age, race, region etc steady and take what they get as a result for party ID....in times like these more voters identify themselves as Democratic....is this beyond your understanding!

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Just curious what all of you who keep touting the HUGE advantage in early voting for Obama, think of the HUGE early voting edge that President errrr I mean Senator Kerry had in 2004.

http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/84842.shtml

Fla.: Kerry Takes Commanding Lead in Early Voting

NewsMax Wires
Friday, Oct. 29, 2004

President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry remain locked in a close race for Florida's 27 electoral votes as they head into the final days of the 2004 campaign, a new poll indicated Thursday.

Story Continues Below

Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were favored by 49 percent to 46 percent for Kerry and running mate John Edwards among likely Florida voters surveyed by Quinnipiac University pollsters between last Friday and Tuesday. Independent candidate Ralph Nader received 1 percent, while 4 percent said they were still undecided.

"It comes down to three things," assistant poll director Clay Richards said. "Turnout, turnout and turnout."

Among 16 percent of Florida voters who said they had cast early ballots, Kerry received 56 percent of those compared to Bush's 39 percent. [Editor's Note: NewsMax's Insider Report first revealed early voting results -- Click Here for Info.]

"This puts the pressure on the Bush campaign to get out more votes on Election Day," Richards said.

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zotz:

BOOM!
Here's another one for you!
Datamar has Obama up by five in FL 49 to 44.
http://www.datamar.net/pdf/flpg102708.pdf

(They are all against you!) LOL!

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mysticlaker:

HAHA newsmax...

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paradski:

LOL @ NewsMax

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straight talk:

@ McCAIN sUPPORTERS

WHER IS THE SURGE? State polls are breaking for Obama! Now there are outliers, but when 90% are showin Obama ahead in key states, I tend to believe them! WHERE IS THIS SURGE THAT McCAIN SUPPORTERS KEEP TALKING ABOUT? WHY IS THE McCAIN CAMP FIGHTING AMONGST THEMSELVES? COULD IT BE THAT THEY SEE THAT THEY ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 5% IN KEY BATTLE GROUD STATES? SHOW ME ONE STATE POLL THAT MAKES McCAIN FEEL GOOD?

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zotz:

bmrKY-
Thanks for the update. It looks like a good day for Obama.

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bmrKY:

From Scott Elliott, an conservative evangelical poll statistician who came within 3 electoral votes of accurately projecting Bush's electoral vote total in 2004, over at Election Projection... and I quote:

"Eight days from Election Day, here is this blogger's conclusion: Barack Obama will win this election in a landslide. He will capture at least 350 electoral votes and win the popular vote by 7% or more. McCain may benefit from some measure of the Bradley Effect, but that advantage will be overwhelmed by African-American turnout, Palin-induced defections by moderates, and under-funded, unenthusiastic GOP get-out-the-vote efforts. This week's update shows Obama with a 375-163 electoral vote edge. The actual result may be a tad closer, but I'd be less surprised if his victory surpassed even that landslide tally."

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AdamSC:

@Newsmax

Your arugment is about 'voter turnout'?

Your kidding me right, you think more people are going to show up at the polls to vote for John McCain than Barack Obama? If that's your way of thinking, than your highly mistaken.

Barack Obama has the best campaign organizing than any other candidate that's run for President. His Get out the Vote is so far superior than the likes as anyone has ever seen.

Voter turnout wont' be a problem this year when Early Voting is shattering records this year.

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bmrKY:

@zotz

Yep. Can't say that I'm complaining. I love watching boomshak (or simply "B.S." as I like to call him) continually attempting to grasp at straws in order to make himself feel better about the impending repudiation of the neocon ideology by voters. Boom is like a trainwreck-- so sad, yet you can't help but watch.

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OneAngryDwarf:

R2K is going to poll AZ this week to try and verify the "tightening" in the polls down here. How awesome is that?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/28/14022/313/422/644358

McCain is really creeping back in now. I bet by next week they'll be polling UT or SC. Unstable and Unable are just such a herd of mavericks. Their state polling numbers are just maverickly delicious. I can't wait for boommaverick to tell us more about the secret tinfoil hat Republican ultra-mavericky "end of Obama campaign" plot for this week.

Sarah's going shopping again and people think that is just so folksy...

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jamesugw:

IF we take Boom at his word, then we are seeing a McCain surge. And if we're seeing a McCain surge then his good day on Sunday in Ras should have been replicated in yesterday's calling. In other words, we should see Ras at something like O+2. Right, Boom?

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JCK:

Ha. The RNC is advertising in MONTANA.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/rnc_goes_up_in_montana.php

Boom may obsess over each national poll showing tightening nationally (even if the national polls, as a whole do not), but he refuses the explain how McCain in going to win in the electoral college (other than to cite some crazy article about PUMAs in PA not voting for Obama).

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JerryTheAngel:

"Fla.: Kerry Takes Commanding Lead in Early Voting"

You fail to look more deeply into the logistics of the campaign. There is no comparison to Obama's ground game and Kerry's ground game.

Bush/Rove's ground game was much more organized then McCain's ground game.

This is the difference that is hardly ever mentioned on this site and the comments posted here. It is ignored for the most part.

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DecaturMark:

Here is the early voting website as of this morning:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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straight talk:

McCAIN IS only campaigning in Pa because he is tryin to appease the PUMA'S! BUT OBAMA HAS A PATH TO VICTORY WITHOUT PA, FL, AND OH! McCAIN LAST STAND IS PA? ARE YOU FREAKIN KIDDING ME?

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JCK:

Since September 29, there have been 30 polls of Ohio. McCain led in five of them, and was tied in one. The current "RCP" average has Obama with a 6.0% lead. Pollster.com shows Obama with a 4.8% lead in their trend estimate.

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Dana Adini:

Rasmussen unchanged

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oicu:

The latest Rasmussen party weightings are D 40% R 32.8%, a margin of 7.2%. So continued harping on about this poll, which has just a slightly higher margin of 9%, is yet another idiocy. It's almost as idiotic as the constant yelling of "Marxist" or the telling of complete lies about what Obama said 7 years ago.

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WhereisMitt:

JerryTheAngel,

Not only that, but it should be pointed out that the polls, *on average*, did not predict a Kerry win in Florida. Say what you will about RCP, but their averages, while not necessarily correct on the margin of victory, have been pretty good about picking the ultimate winner of various contests.

For example, while there were some polls that showed Kerry up in Florida, the average predicted that Bush would win, regardless of the early vote stats.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#fl

This year, the average is predicting that Obama wins and he's competitive in early voting.

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sandman:

@JerryTheAngel,

Yes, I wouldn't disagree with that but my point goes to the large early lead that Kerry enjoyed in 2004 in early voting. As you can see from this site, we are hardly in the postpartisan age. Visit Daily Kos on the left or Gateway pundit on the right if you doubt it. Obama is likely to win but he will also have to govern the 45% who did not vote for him. There is nothing that I see in the discourse that makes me optimistic he will do this successfully. All of you who so fervently await his arrival might think about that. It would be no different if McCain were to win. In this way, we all lose.

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DecaturMark:

Shocker! Washington Times endorses McCain!
:>)

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Angus Mc:

Rassmussen steady at O51-M46

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mysticlaker:

O must have had a good night last night to keep it stable after the +2 McCain change. Lots of statistical noise out there, but no changes at all.

I would not be surprised to see another uptick on gallup today considering we did not see the weak Sunday from Obama in gallup.

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Dana Adini:

Obama looking real good in Nevada. Real good. North Carolina will be the closest state this year.....which bodes real well for Obama

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orange24:

Seems like we have to go over this every time the McCain surge pops up. For the sake of argument, we'll ignore the fact that every presidential election tightens in the last week. Here's the real thing - how does this help McCain in the electoral college? What is his path to victory there? Obama has 7+ point leads in states that will already get him 272 EV. He has growing leads in FL and OH. It is a statistical tie in MT, ND, NV, AZ, GA, NC, and IN, any one of which could break blue on election night - especially when VA goes to Obama early. Conservatives who don't like McCain anyway and are having second thoughts about the she-Bush will decide not to vote when the outcome is clearly not in doubt. This will be an ugly landslide in the electoral college. But, if your intention is to get to a respectable number in the popular vote, then well done. It'll probably end up at around 5 or 6 points by election day. Good for you...

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Thatcher:

@sandman -

"Obama is likely to win but he will also have to govern the 45% who did not vote for him"

(slaps sandman's forehead) This is your argument? Everyone who wins an election does that.

And if it's like you stated '45% who did not vote for him' ... that puts Obama at 55% ... and 10 point landslide. And would be one of the most lopsided elections in modern history and gives Obama a mandate (along with the 57-60 seats in the Senate and the 57-60% Democratically controlled House). Thanks for that prediction - I needed a "pep me up".

I can think of three other Democratic Presidents have served in an administration like the one Obama sees himself coming into - one with such a lopsided Democratic advantage in Congress:

FDR - "The New Deal"
JFK - "Man on the Moon/Peace Corps"
LBJ - "Civil Rights Act"

I like it.

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Dana Adini:

well said Orange.....

new polls Obama up double digits in NH...McCain can't win

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DecaturMark:

@orange24:

Don't you understand? According to McCain, if he told us his strategy that would be like telling bin Laden how he is going to catch him. I've heard McCain's secret plan to win the election involves CA and NY, oops I've said too much already...

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sherman:

Hmm... who should I believe?

Let's see, on the one hand I see Boomshak who cherry picks a poll each day and decides that McCain is surging based on that one poll (He likes Daily Kos today, how funny is that?)

On the other hand, Mark Blumenthal says "The eight daily trackers again showed mostly random movement".

Gee...should I believe Boomshak or Blumenthal. Decisions, decisions...

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zigmeister:

Hmmmm! Where are all the Republicans? They all seem to be posting on Zogby. Hmmm! Why do you suppose that is? So it is safe to say it here: Looking ahead to 2012, if Sarah Palin runs in the primaries, I am changing my party affiliation to Republican so I can vote against that right-wing hate-monger. I suspect that half the country will do the same. Keep it in mind fellow Democrats! See, there are legal ways to change the outcome of elections!

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jeepdad:

Anyone have a heads up on the morning tracker poll from Pennsylvania?

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thoughtful:

Dana Adini

I have Georgia as Obama's closest win followed by Montana next closest either way.

McCain will narrowly win WV.

390+EVs

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ricbrig:

Orange has a very good point. The narrative of Obama=socilist is going on since 2 weeks now and it seems that it only had the effects of 1)calling home the base (but that happens anyway, people tend to go back on their roots) and 2)Shade any positive message by McCain/Palin. both points, imho, don't give rise to a surge.

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sherman:

Hey zig, I thought you were going to say that you would change your affilition so you could vote FOR Palin. I would love for Palin to run against Obama in 2012. She would get crushed the way Reagan crushed Mondale.

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DTM:

Nearing the end of a hotly contested election is not necessarily the best time to look for signs of postpartisanship. And yet even so there are some such signs to be seen, such as the number of prominent Republican newspapers and individuals endorsing Obama, or Obama's recent refocusing on the themes of unity and a new politics in his closing speeches.

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whoshotsam:

jeepdad - Morning Call tracker today is O 53 M 41.

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ctj:

Can someone please comment on the ridculous IBD tracking poll? It seems to me like they are out in left field (or right field as they would prefer)with internals that make no sense. As I am not as studious in reading these polls as most of you are some insight and thoughts would be helpful.

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mysticlaker:
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mysticlaker:
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Viperlord:

Sssh, your debunking the Rethuglicans new favorite poll.

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sherman:

You know, when I heard that McCain was crying "Socialist!!", my first thought was "why would anyone care what McCain says these days since he lost all credibility last month". But then my second thought, given the financial crisis we are in now, is that socialism probably looks real good to a lot of people these days.

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Thatcher:

@ctj:

Look at the headlines of IBD Editorial page ...

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/

They have a very right-leaning world view. So their polls will be demographically modeled in that fashion.

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pc17:

Hey Guys,

good PA article.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-mccainqtown1028-cn,0,5661512.story

Morning call

O53
M41

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Dan:

@sherman
"She would get crushed the way Reagan crushed Mondale."

I agree. Palin at the top of the Republican ticket in 2012 would be great. In this election Obama has not attacked Palin at all. Its not customary for a Presidential candidate to 'run against' the VP of the opposing party. But with Palin at the top of the ticket, she would be attacked directly and would have zero chance at success.

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Parah Salin':

Correct numbers:

Ras: O 51, M 46

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mandalorianarmy:

Ras no change today. Looking like a standstill day which is good for Obama.

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Thatcher:

@sherman -

socialism probably looks real good to a lot of people these days.

exactly.

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ricbrig:

Ouch McCain surge!! The Washington Times endorses McCain, this is groundshaking. Please boomshak give use your forecast?
Let me guess: tied by sunday?

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Trosen:

No idea why you guys even acknowledge boom anymore. He clearly doesn't believe all this crap he spews. He's trying to agitate you guys, and gets some sort of perverse pleasure out of that. Every time he's called out to put his money where his mouth is he becomes silent. He's just trying to annoy and spread doubt and fear. Why play the game?

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jamesugw:

mysticlaker -

I think you're reading yesterday's Hotline results - today's don't seem to be out yet

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damitajo1:

I just noticed the 26% Republican demographic. Is there any legitimacy to this?

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ctj:

Thatcher,

I agree they are right leaning, but so is Rasmussen and the Ras poll #'s are remarkably stable. In fact when you listen to Scott Rasmussen on interviews while he is certainly rightward leaning he is fair in his analysis. These folks at IBD/TIPP just seem weird.

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Trosen:

Good article about the Obama ground game in FL.:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14968.html

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OGLiberal:

So R2K shows a 1pt improvement for Obama. Since we know that Obama was +3 in Zogby three days ago, that means the three day numbers are almost certain +3, +5, +5. Rasmussen remains at Obama +5, which means he probably did better yesterday than on Sunday. Hotline, no change.

And the McCain surge is where?

Rasmussen is back to a virtual tie among white women voters, M49, O48. Yesterday, McCain led among this demo 51-46. And after trailing by one or two among indies yesterday, Obama is back up by six, 50-44.

I theorized yesterday that the initial reports of the fake attack on that goofy McCain campaign volunteer may have scared white, independent women away from Obama temporarily, and that once the truth was revealed to them (which, for non-news junkies like us could take up to a day, maybe a bit more), they would swing back to Obama. This is all a big assumption on my part but the internals do hint to this.

Without leaners, Obama leads McCain by 6 in the Rasmussen daily tracker, 50-44. He only trails by 2 among men and leads with women by 11. Obama and McCain are running almost exactly even with their party faithful.

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Thatcher:

@jamesugw -

Nope - mysticlaker is reading the right one -

Their dates on the bottom represent the last day of polling.

10/22-10/24 50-43
10/23-10/25 50-42
10/24-10/26 50-42
10/25-10/27 50-42

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JCK:

@damitajo1

Rasmussen does a rolling survey for its party identification spread and they have a split of 40.0% D, 32.8%, for a spread of 7.2% (for this week).

Daily Kos has 35% dems, 26% reps, for a spread of 9%.

DailyKos is on the high end, but the 9% split is not unreasonable. I suspect that Rasmussen pushed the independents a bit harder to declare an affiliation, hence the higher overall numbers for both parties vs. DailyKos.

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Trosen:

OG.. I really think you're overstating the crazy "B" chick deal. It was a late-day news cycle story that was debunked within 24 hours. I'm not sure there was even enough time for it to show up in polling either way.

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jamesugw:

Thanks Thatcher - good to see. GWU also unchanged.

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dc:

Rasmussen sums up just how steady the race is:

"Nationally, Obama has now been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support has stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range."

O stays in the mid of his range, M at his ceiling.

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boomshak:

@damitajo1:

I just noticed the 26% Republican demographic. Is there any legitimacy to this?

No.

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huetdebd:

@boomshak

all the polls you don't like are bull sh*t? what are you going to say november 5th? that that is bull sh*t too? bet you didnn't think it was bull sh*t when republican judges decided bush beat gore in 2000. you only see things the way you want to see them. sad.

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Thatcher:

Well, Battleground is out with no change - 49-46.

That's 5 straight days Obama's been at 49 in the rolling average. I think we can assume that the past 4 days he's been at 49% in their daily numbers.

And with McCain being 47, 45 then three straight days at 46 - I think we can assume his number has probably been 46 for each of the past 4 days.

Gives us a pretty strong basis to work off of to track the rest of the Battleground's daily numbers.

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mac7396:

The surge is NOT working, my friends. Poor McCain and his dysfunctional campaign.

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Northeastern Republican:

huetdebd - republican judges didnt decide bush beat gore in 2000. florida counted the ballots once, had a recount (which was the perscribed procedure in florida) - bush won both counts. the liberal florida supreme court decided they wanted to incist on a second all hand recount - at a point when the legitimacy of the ballots were becoming more and more comprimsed (remember hanging chads?) it was appealled to the us supreme court where the court ruled in a 7-2 decision (yes, even 2 of the "liberal" judges agreed with the majority) that the recount could not be justified. o yea, and a study was done afterwards that concluded had the recount actually gone through again, bush would have likely won by a greater majority than he did in the first recount.

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jeepdad:

@pc17:

So McCain is canceling his events in PA due to weather? Guess there's no place to meet indoors in Pennsylvania. . Better explanation: PA is a lost cause and they know it.

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straight talk:

DON'T WORRY McCAIN WON'T NEED A RECOUNT IN FLORIDAY BECAUSE HE WILL LOSE THAT STATE BY 5%!
WHERE IS THE SURGE THAT McCAIN SUPPORTERS KEEPS PROMISING US? WHERE IS THE BEEF? WHAT POLL CAN YOU POINT TO? SURELY NOT ZOGBY! WHAT IS McCAIN PATH TO 270?

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Northeastern Republican:

thatcher - im not sure i like the battleground poll. its hard to gauge early in the week due to the previous weeks polling still hanging on since they dont poll weekends. i guess it really is only "reliable" (if it even is then) when its late in the week and they arent still including polls from before the weekend. it should be interesting to see which of these daily trackers were with it or which were totally off come one week. there have been 300% more national polls this year when you compare the number of polls in the first 25 days of october '04 to october '08.

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boomshak:

THE GREAT $250,000 DECEPTION:

The Obama Campaign would have you believe that he will only increase taxes on "individuals" making more than $250,000 a year.

Not so fast.

Many married households file jointly. That means a combined husband and wife income of $250,000 a year will see a dramatic tax increase!

Now that's a horse of a different color. Not a lot of people make over $250,000 a year, but man make $125,000 a year. Obama's new tax would hit them hard.

Just one more lie buried in the vapid speeches and posturing.

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OGLiberal:

@trosen

I only theorize this because the swing to +5 among white women for McCain was the only real significant change in the internals yesterday. That's exactly the type of story - before it was debunked - that would have a great effect on white women voters leaning towards Obama. Again, just a theory. That +4 improvement for McCain among white women yesterday, which disappeared today, could have just been statistical noise. Plus, I can't think of anything else that happened over the weekend to account for the 3pt swing in McCain's direction. (a swing that appears to have stalled already)

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Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

I've been reading the posts..I'm not sure the fascination with "boomshak". He is getting people's goats and getting them well. The comments directed toward him are a result of the anxiety he produces in the responder. He seems to cherry pick and harp on small changes which tends to be indicitive of a tinge of a paranoid personality...which isn't necessarily a bad thing to have.

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KMartDad08:

In a "surge", aren't your numbers supposed to go way up? I don't see that happening in any of these polls--they all seem pretty flat to me (and I'm from KS, so I know flat). If Johnny Mac doesn't take the equivalent of political viagra, then his surge is going to sorely disappoint his supporters.

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DTM:

@damitajo1

Pew and Gallup both did surveys earlier this year that were specifically designed to measure partisan identification. Pew got 36% D, 27% R, 37% no party, and Gallup got 40% D, 26% R, and 34% neither. So, R2K's 35% D, 26% R, 39% independent/other is consistent with these prior results.

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Chester:

@ complacency,
I think that everyone predicting a land-slide should take a good look at the last 7 days of previous elections. Obama has firewalls in place and he's going to need them; the Repubs have dominated the ballet question and this will be no different. I think O will win, but I'll be happily surprised if he breaks 300 EV's . I, too, would love a landslide, but in the final week the chickens come home to roost.
Republicans have fear on their side, Dems have truth... but fear is what keeps voters up at night and what lingers behind the curtain.

O is smart to keep hammering; he's haunted by Gore and Kerry, too. Don't underestimate the Repubs. McCain is feeble but the machine behind him is relentless; they've been in power for 20 of the last 28 years.

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Thatcher:

@Northeastern Republican:

I'm not saying that I agree with the Battleground poll.

I'm just saying we have a good basis of what the daily numbers were for each of their past 4 days (of the 5 in the average) to work off of as we see their average each day from now until election day.

If we "know" the past 4 days - when they come out with their average tomorrow, we'll be able to estimate better what the actual poll numbers are from tonight's results.

____________________

mysticlaker:

I am going to miss you boom.

____________________

straight talk:

I hear that the O team is considering sending Obama to Atlanta this weekend! I think Georgia is going to be the shocker, if it goes blue? Reports coming out in Georgia should worry the McCain Camp because Georgia has a very large AA base and young voters!

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

GUYS, GUYS...TAKE IT EASY WITH THE REPUGS...
re: Boomshak, SouthernAngler, et al

They have lost all rationality and no amount of reasoning is going to change their minds. They are currently oscillating between the denial and anger stages of the Five Stages of Grief. The polls will shift around +/- 2 points all through the week. Whenever Obama goes up, they’ll attack the polls and decry how unfair the world is. Whenever Obama goes down slightly, they’ll be swinging on the chandeliers in rapturous joy. You can’t reason with them, so let them be.

James Carville called this election correctly over a month ago. When McCain said “the fundamentals of the economy are strong” on Sept 15th, he damaged himself almost fatally. When Kate Couric bitch-slapped Sarah Palin all over the evening news, this election was over!

As Scott Rasmussen noted, this election has been set in stone for the last 33 days. Steady as she goes…and dare I say it SNL style…solid as Barack!

____________________

Northeastern Republican:

ogliberal - here are the only plausible things i can think of that could have shifted some support (could have, dont know if they did):

1) mccain was finally able to match obama in battleground states on advertising dollars as of the end of last week. they reached "Deep into their pockets" and began matching 4 ads to every 5 obama ads. perhaps the joe the plumber ads which were proved succesful in focus groups did enough to sway a few voters.

2) there are still a large number of undecideds - many more i think than typically exist at this stage of the race. with 5 or 6 percent undecided if some of those start to make up their mind they will either 1) shift mccain bc obama hasnt been able to "close the deal" yet (i mean, really, obama should be much further ahead at this point than hovering around 50 percent support - gotta give mccain credit for how close hes kept it in a democratic election year with the republican presidents approval rating below 25%) or they will end up shifting obama because they like to go with the perceived winner

seems like the rasmussen numbers were just off for sunday but i gotta say it is pretty shocking to see a 3 point swing in the rasmussen poll. when, if ever, have we seen that in the daily tracker from rasmussen this election?

____________________

huetdebd:

@boomshak

go to the main page of this web site and click on montana. tell if you like the way the chart looks.

____________________

sherman:

@Northeastern Republican:

I think you have some of your facts slightly wrong. No recount was ever officially completed in Florida due to the intervention of the Supreme court (which should not have intervened in the first place, as per the Constitution). A final analysis of ballots by news organizations, including overvotes and undervotes, showed the final tally as being for Gore.

http://www.aei.org/docLib/20040526_KeatingPaper.pdf

____________________

boomshack:

Viperlord:

"I for one would love to hear boom**** explain how McFascist can win the Electoral College."

Easy. If they start the tally alphabetically and stop at the a's: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona - a shot out! You libs are lucky there are no "b" states. Balabama, Balaska, Barkansas and Barizona would spell toast for Obama!

Also, watch for Palin pardon Cat Stevens some time by Sunday.

____________________

boomshak:

Can Barack Obama pay for all his programs by raising taxes only only the top 5% of wage earners?

Hell no, not even close.

Does he have a magical money tree with which to grow the rest?

Not that I am aware of.

So, where is the rest of the trillion bucks in new spending he wants going to come from? Oh that's right, he is going to cut defense spending by 25%.

Terrific.

How do you say "Obama" in Chinese?

____________________

mysticlaker:

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2008/10/liveblog_mccain_and_palin_in_h.html

Please continue to spend all your money and time in PA....

The arena could hold as many as 8,500 in this configuration, but there are plenty of empty seats in the upper levels and suites. The lower levels are mostly full but there are empty seats to be found.

There are also several hundred people crowded on the floor around the stage. They're the dedicated ones that braved the rainy cold and arrived several hours before the doors opened at 7 a.m.

____________________

boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

I am going to miss you boom.

That's ok. I would come visit you in the Home For The Politically Insane, but I'll be too busy at the McCain Victory Party.

____________________

JCK:

Tightening? Perhaps not so much. Obama partisan Nate Silver says:

There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?

Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/what-would-tightening-look-like.html

____________________

bpd1069:

No more off-shore tax havens for corporations which the majority DON'T PAY ANY TAXES!

No more tax loopholes for corporations which the majority DON'T PAY ANY TAXES!

No more tax credits for corporations which ship jobs over seas, which the majority DON'T PAY ANY TAXES!

And going through the Federal budget with a scalpel to remove corporate welfare programs for corporations which the majority DON'T PAY ANY TAXES!

____________________

OGLiberal:

@boomshak

Obama has always been clear on this - individuals making over $200K, households over $250K.

And, btw, expenses for a couple earning $250K are not double the expenses of an individual making $200K. Your argument is weak.

Also, per 2005 Census data, the number of households earning over $250K in income/year was 1.5%. The number of households earning over $200K/year was 2.7%. Only 15% earn more than $100K in annual household income, with only 6% earning over $150K. I doubt those numbers have changed much since 2005.

By contrast, almost 75% of households earn less than $75K/year. 55% earn less than $50K/year. In 2007, the median household income in this country was $50K.

Alot of households earn over $250K/year? Really? Do your homework, dude.

____________________

orange24:

@boomshak:
Many married households file jointly. That means a combined husband and wife income of $250,000 a year will see a dramatic tax increase!

You're just now figuring this out? Has it really taken you this much time to decipher this complex tax plan? You really think he was trying to hide that? I think any rational person would think when he says working families making under 250K get a tax cut assumes that he is talking about household income. Did you really think he wasn't? Or are you just lurching again?

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

$125,000 a year?

My father is an electrical engineer. After some 40 years in the business, he now holds a high position at a major U.S. airport, and is approaching retirement age.

His salary broke $100,000 JUST LAST YEAR. It seems to me that the $100K cap is a very difficult cap to reach, even for professionals.

____________________

DTM:

Obama has said he won't raise taxes for "families" making under $250,000. See here:

"Middle class families will see their taxes cut – and no family making less than $250,000 will see their taxes increase."

http://www.barackobama.com/taxes/

The percentage of households reporting over $250,000 next year is estimated to be about 2%. See here:

"Those reporting adjusted gross income of more than $250,000 to the IRS are projected to make up 2 percent of households next year, when the new president will take office."

http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/what_percentage_of_the_us_population_makes.html

____________________

zombieflanders:

boomshak:

Rasmussen should tighten again today. Do the math. There is a high liklihood McCain actually polled +1 on Sunday.

Posted on October 28, 2008 7:34 AM

Rasmussen: O51-M46 (no change)

Whoops! :D

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

I am going to miss you boom.

"That's ok. I would come visit you in the Home For The Politically Insane , but I'll be too busy at the McCain Victory Party.

Anyone else notice that the abbreviation for boom's "Home for the Politically Insane" spells out HOT PolIn.? On a lighter note, boom, how long do you expect this McCain Victory Party to last? Could you please give me the full particulars (when, where, etc.).

You know, especially since McCain himself isn't planning one.

carry on.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

I can help you buddy:

WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION 2001 RADIO INTERVIEW ABOUT WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION AFTER SLAVERY
WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION JOE THE PLUMBER TITO THE BRICK LAYER

Seriously, I don't think anyone is going to buy it because no one feels that they're among the top 5% of wealthy Americans. When Obama says that he's going to restore the middle class, and provide a tax cut to 95% of Americans, everyone listens. When he talks about the ideological problems inherent in trickle down economics, the average American gets it.

McCain isn't going to win any votes by saying he's going to give more tax breaks to corporate America.

Corporate loyalty is way down. What's the percentage of Americans today that have been on their job longer than 15 years as compared to the 1970's? What's the percentage of Americans that are working without benefits today as opposed to the 1970's?

I think most Americans would say F*CK corporate America, F*CK Walmart, F*CK Exxon.

Given the environment today, any arguments that say that the middle class doesn't need a tax break, i.e. wealth redistribution, aren't going to succeed. I actually listened to Limbaugh yesterday, as I spent a great deal of time out and about in my car, and it was painful for me to hear him try argue that Obama doesn't like the constitution because he said it was a charter of negative rights. He played the full clip in which Obama said that the Constitution says what the government can't do to you and not what it must do for you. The he played the clip in which Obama said that the courts aren't designed to deal with wealth redisribution and then he bemoaned the civil rights movement because it was too court focused.

As honest as I can be, to me, it just seemed as though any fifth grader could understand what Obama was saying and wouldn't come away with the impression that Obama was a Marxist. I know that the tape was already sliced up and that all of the stuff dealing with slavery was taken out, but he should have hacked it up the way they did the Revernd Wright material.

Rush Limbaugh actually provided to much material. Again, Obama came across as thoughtful. He didn't come across as a radical. That's as honest as I can be.

In the end, John McCain is going to lose this election because he was down right stupid. After the primary campaigns, the election was his to lose as long as he accomplished three goals: 1). remain more positive than Obama and allow Ayers, Rezko, and Wright drag Obama down on their own merits; he should have been treating Obama as Obama has been treating Palin; 2). attack Bush and his administration of the government from the start; the last thing he needed to do was to be seen riding around in a golf cart with Bush Sr. or repeating the phrase the fundamentals of the economy are strong; 3). pick someone that the American people thought was competent to handle the role of the President in a time of crisis, anyone.

In the end, John McCain and Sarah Palin came across as a nimwits, and that can't be undone. Probably 70% Americans feel that they're smarter than Sarah Palin, and, unfortunately when David Letterman and SNL make an ass out of you on national television, it has an effect on voters.

I never believed that the Bradley effect was in play primarily because California is not a model for the rest of America and it's history of race relations and tension make it more volatile than most parts of America. Consider it's history of race riots and it's racial chemistry.

However, it wouldn't surprise me if a number of well educated Republican went into the voting booth and selected Obama-Biden as opposed to McCain-Palin because in their hearts they know that John McCain doesn't have the intellect or the temperment to be President.

For the record, Boom, I thought I'd play on your turf and talk about the whole Marxist thing, but, seriously, what's going to play in the media today will be the civil war thats broken out in the Republican ranks. The press is going to try and pressure Republicans to step away and repudiate from Senator Stevens. There's going to be extensive coverage of Bill Clinton campaigning with Barack Obama. Of course, we'll be focused on the battleground polls. With 7 days to go, there just isn't any room to ponder whether Obama is a Marxist when all of the visuals suggest that he's our next President. That's about as honest as I can be buddy.

____________________

orange24:

but I'll be too busy at the McCain Victory Party

Where is that party - FantasyLand?

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Shannon,Dallas,Texas:
"In the end, John McCain is going to lose this election because he was down right stupid. After the primary campaigns, the election was his to lose as long as he accomplished three goals: 1). remain more positive than Obama and allow Ayers, Rezko, and Wright drag Obama down on their own merits; he should have been treating Obama as Obama has been treating Palin; 2). attack Bush and his administration of the government from the start; the last thing he needed to do was to be seen riding around in a golf cart with Bush Sr. or repeating the phrase the fundamentals of the economy are strong; 3). pick someone that the American people thought was competent to handle the role of the President in a time of crisis, anyone."

Smart analysis, right on the money.

____________________

kc_in_MN:

According to the Tax Policy Center, a family with $250k-$603k income per year could see a whole $121 increase in taxes per year under Obama. It doesn't stress me out to pay an additional $121.

Of course, I could save $8k in taxes under McCain, but that won't make me support him. For all the talk about creating jobs through tax cuts for those making >$250k - I wouldn't hire anyone based on that tax break.

Anyhow, I don't see how either of them are going to pay for their promises with their proposed tax breaks, but McCain's is worse for the deficit.

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MaxMBJ:

Once again, it may be fun to look at the state polls but they really don't matter. It's all about national numbers. If the election moves into a 2% difference either way, then state polls matter. Until then, they are an exercise in futility.

McCain needs to break into the 2% range nationally. That seems to be possible and perhaps even happening. He has cut what looked like a runaway election last week at this time into a tight race, 5 points or less. But 5 ai't gonna do it. He needs it to get to 2.

The trackers only show it to be about 5 right now. Last week they were 8. That means at the rate he's improving, 2 is possible.

Tomorrow he needs to pick up a point in some of the trackers as he did today (barely) with Zogby.

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boomshak:

2008 A LOT LIKE 1996:

A young, well-spoken and popular Democrat vs an old, grumpy Republican. The "enthusiasm gap" for the Democrat was supposed to be HUGE. Young people would vote in droves and give the Democrat a great victory.

The CNN Tracking Poll right before the election showed a 13 point blowout for the Democrat. He won by only 8.

Most polls that year missed by a mile. Only Zogby got close (probably more by luck than anything else).

A 5 point miss in 1996, yet this year, the pollsters have it right? It is harder to poll now than it was then. Pollsters missed NH by double-digits.

This race is way closer than even most polls show. You Obamanuts are in for a shock Nov 4th as PA goes to McCain.

____________________

OGLiberal:

As Atrios said yesterday, it's too late in the game to introduce a charge like "wealth spreader" and make it stick. And as he also noted that given the state of the economy, a lot of folks may think that "spreading the wealth" sounds like a real good idea, especially since most people - outside of the top 2-3% - have experienced income stagnation over the last 8 years. Polls actually show that a plurality of voters don't have a problem with raising taxes - actually, allowing the temporary Bush tax cuts to expire is a better definition - on households earning over $250K. Why? Because most people don't even come close to making that much and don't believe they ever will. (and they are correct) And they're hurting.

Joe the Plumber wants a flat tax or not tax at all. He thinks Social Security is a joke. He probably thinks the same thing about Medicare and public schools. Sam-Joe is not an average American - he's a right wing ideologue.

____________________

straight talk:

Obama is campaigning in the cold Rain! Man this guys is relentless! Obama will reach 300+Ev! NEver has the GOP been outspent and down in so many reliable red states and their gotv will not be able to match the ethusiasm gap!

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NextAmericanChapter:

@ kc_in_MN:

You're fighting a losing battle. You could get the Tax Policy Center to go to boomshak's house and give him a private tutorial on how Obama’s plans are better fiscally, but it's like talking to a wall...nothing gets threw.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Shannon:

Your words: "I think most Americans would say F*CK corporate America, F*CK Walmart, F*CK Exxon."

Do you realize you have just endorsed the Obama is a Marxist view? Why do such views as yours exist in the Obama camp? Because they are approved by your Overlord.

Don't tell me associations don't matter.

____________________

sherman:

It's nice to see your unbridled optimism, boom.

____________________

Rames1980:

DecaturMark: You're right! NH has been colored deep blue, so 272=Strong Obama. Time for Michelle to start thinking of the next rug for the Oval Office, and for the voters to hand Obama not just a good win, but a blowout landslide, which includes the 60-vote majority in the Senate!

I'm also thinking of 2012, when Obama will annihilate Palin in the electoral college!

In 2016 it's Hillary's turn.

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Northeastern Republican:

i think election night will throw a few suprises our way. either obama will pick over red states nobody expected or mccain will prove the pollsters wrong. no use squabling about it - because frankly i can see a way for either scenario to play out. but we've never seen a race like this before where race, gender and age (of the candidates and the voters) are all going to be an issue. should be fascinating in that regard.

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Steve_OH:

@boomshak

"Now that's a horse of a different color. Not a lot of people make over $250,000 a year, but man[y] make $125,000 a year. Obama's new tax would hit them hard."

I make over $125,000 a year. My wife makes a little more than half that, so we don't break the $250,000 barrier. But let's say that we did. Let's say that together we had a taxable (not just gross) income of $300,000. Let's see.... A 3% increase in the tax rate on the amount over $250,000. That's $1500. Wow. $4 a day. That hits me so hard that I might even need to blink...NOT. I leave almost that much in tips at my local espresso shop every day.

____________________

thoughtful:

boomshak

after many months I have come to realize that what we have by mid-morning is a different boom than the realistic one in the morning or the completely demented one by mid afternoon and evening.

What medication are you on?

Have you managed to get your ballot papers sorted?

Obama in Chinese is the same Obama as in English though pronounced differently. Japanese as well try it O...Bamah

____________________

zigmeister:

Hey Boomshakalakaboom! You are assuming that everyone making over $250,000 is greedy and going to vote for McShame! Many of us who fit in that category actually believe in the "Greatest Good for the Greatest Number" philosophy. I know this will shock you conservatives, but it really isn't all about YOU or me! We feel that if the nation as a whole is better off, then so shall we and our children be better off. Boom, I know that you are by you own admission just a "pimple faced kid", but look around you! This country has been driven into the dirt by W and the Republican philosophies. Even us "wealthy" (making over $250,000) are hurting thanks to Uncle George. So stop assuming that ALL the "wealthy" citizens care only about themselves and their money - there are some of us that actually give a $h*t about the rest of the nation and its people, not just about how much money we have!!!

____________________

jlm9:

i can't wait till Nov 4th so I don't have to hear Sarah Palin for at least four years. Who the hell thought this was a good idea. I agree with whoever it was said they might vote in the Rep primaries next time just to vote for someone who isnt Palin

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DTM:

One of the notable differences between 2008 and 1996 is that Clinton was an incumbent, and therefore subject to the incumbent effect.

____________________

Trosen:

Steady as she goes:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/10/_diageohotline.html

Oh.. and only a +4 D advantage (it will be about 6 or 7 nationally)

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

NEW YORK (Siena College poll)
Obama: 62
MCCain: 31

Watch out Sarah Palin...the heathens are getting restless!

____________________

BigTex:

@Boomshak

In spite of yourself, you may partially right. Repubs have always closed the gap in the last week. Look at Ford in '76, Bush in '92, Dole in '96. Bush did better in 2004 that the exit polling in the battleground states suggested. Obama has to overcome the vote machine issues (which are valid), the Bradley effect, and the Hussein effect.

McCain just needs 4 point swing and he captures the toss up states and pulls in Ohio, and one other and he wins!

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Inkan1969:

@boomshak

Enthusiasm? Everyone assumed 1996 was a foregone conclusion. So no one got very excited about the election. I think that might've even hurt Clinton through complacency. On the other hand, in 2008, people are a LOT MORE worked up about th election.

You again tell half truths. You only mention one tracking poll. What about the rest? You're as much a liar as Josef Goebbels.

____________________

boomshak:

PEW RESEARCH HAS LOST THE F*CKING MINDS! ARE THEY TRYING TO WIN THE AWARD FOR MOST OBSCENE OUTLIER OF THE ELECTION?

New Pew Tracking Poll - Obama +15!

Yep, +15, that's not a typo folks.

Rasmussen - Obama +5
Gallup - Obama +5
Zogby - Obama +4
GWU - Obama +3
IBD - Obama +3

Pew Research - Obama +15

Incredible. Now let's all guess which poll MSNBC, ABC, CBS and CNN will all lead with today?

I'm sorry, but even the most partisan Obama supporter has to laugh at this steaming pile.

____________________

straight talk:

Cnn projected that Virginia would go to Bush+14, but he only carried it by 8! And the clinton/Dole comparisons are way off based! Where is your evidence that PA is going to McCain? No POLL! Zero Evidence! ONly McCain Surrogates Talking Points! Show me one poll that giveS McCain Hope! He has never lead! The closes he has ever got is 5%.

____________________

AdamSC:

Boomshak your verging upon retarded.


Pennsylvania will never go to McCain. It's just a Republicans wet dream that will never come true, just face it. (Besides, recent reports show Obama at 272 STRONG.) He could lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida at this rate and still win the election.

If your telling me Obama can win Virginia and not win either of the three major battleground states, then it is you, 'my friend' that is in for a rude awakening.

My predictions are holding, this week is tightening in the national polls but his lead among state polls haven't varied or caved out.

Speculation on national polls during this point of the race is a waste of your time. The national polling is so shaky one week before the big day. Biased polls from both sides will attempt to distort data to show an increase for they're favored candidate.

State polls are where it counts at this point, pay attention to those more than national polls.

This is my prediction for the outcome of the election.

Barack Obama: 344 Electoral Votes

Battleground Victories: Nevada, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia.

John McCain: 194 (Sad, can't even break 200)

Battleground Victories: Indiana, Ohio.

____________________

AdamSC:

Wait, I forgot Georgia was a battleground state this year as well.

Georgia will go to McCain.

____________________

RossPhx:

Is there any relevance at this point to national tracking polls? Show me the states where a 5-point gain in McCain support would change the national election results.

____________________

Trosen:

Chapter.. I have to laugh when I think back to the post-RNC Palin mania and there was a poll or 2 showing NY within single digits.. and you had the trolls here actually trying to imply that NY was in play for McCain.. good times.

____________________

boomshak:

THE QUESTION IS THIS:

Will RCP even include this Pew Research +15 (LV's) in their average? I mean, it is just silly.

____________________

NW Patrick:

5 business days to go Boom!:) This surge is scaring me! LOL

____________________

mirrorball:

I understand what boom is getting at, but in 1996 Perot was also on the ballot and got 8% of the vote. The CNN/Gallup poll overestimated Clinton's support by about 1.5%-2%. And it looks like most undecideds broke toward Dole. A similar miss this year would still put Obama at about 50%-51%, which would likely mean he wins the election.

But I'm not making any predictions either way based on 1996. The circumstances are too different, given the economy, lack of an incumbent, etc.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@MaxMBJ

I can't understand you, and if I can't understand you then you have a problem because I'm a small business owner that makes in excess of $2 million dollars a year and I drive around in a Hummer SUT. And, even I have a tough time not saying F*CK Exxon when I pull up to the pump.

I bet you that I could get you to say F*CK Enron in a matter of seconds so you and I are going to have issues if you refuse to live in reality.

Warren Buffet has more to lose than you, and I'm pretty sure he would point it out if he thought that some INJUSTICE was going to occur.

When Obama talks about putting the tax rate for the wealthy at the same rate it was during the Clinton years, it just doesn't make me think that he's a Marxist.

I couldn't agree in good conscience to give Exxon another tax incentive or subsidy.

Enough with all the crazy talk. Did you hear that Sarah Palin's handlers called her a "Diva"? First of all isn't that a little sexist? Next, how the hell can we put a diva within a 72 year old heart beat of becoming the President of the United States of America. It just can't be done. If I were Mitt Romney, or Tom Ridge, I'd go into that voting booth and I'd pull the lever for Barack Obama.

____________________

thoughtful:

boom:

My average has been between +10% and 14% for 5 weeks now so 15% isn't a surprise!

I think Rasmussen today is really +11% to Obama after taking into account house effect etc though Scott is trying to adjust his various weightings.

The state polls suggest a much wider lead than the 7-8 averages on here and RCP.

____________________

Thatcher:

SIGH - here I go again:

Look at the trend for the entire month of October for 2004. The Bush/Kerry race tightened - but that is because it was already trending that way. The challenging party was behind the incumbent party and was tightening.

Gore/Bush 2000 - (which Gore won the popular vote - but Bush won the electoral). Bush was trending all of October to tighten. The challenging party was behind the incumbent party and was tightening.

Same with Carter/Reagan 1980. Reagan was trending as tightening. the challenging party was behind the incumbent and it tightened and surpassed.

(Update 10/28) 1996 Dole - Clinton ... Dole (challenging party) tightens in the final month on Clinton (incumbent party). (end update)

These are some of the examples everyone uses as their belief that "this race will tighten" ... however - notice the similarities.

The challenging party was the surging party - not the incumbent party. This year, it's the same thing - challenging party is surging. But a big difference between this year and the other years we are talking about is that the challenging party already had the lead going into October. So, this race will NOT tighten - but either flatten or continue to expand.

In *most* elections - the last minute undecideds that do end up voting - normally vote *AGAINST* the incumbent person/party.

____________________

Marcus:

@ Boom

Gallup +5 is LV traditional and noone sane really believes that voter turnout wont be higher among key Obama groups (AA, youth) than in 2004. LV2 is at +10 as is RV.

Sure +15 Pew seems like an outlier but where is an McCain outlier that actualy shows him winning ??? Its only 6 days... tick tick tick

____________________

AdamSC:

The Pew Poll is conducted over almost over a weeks worth of time, with a much larger sample.I say they are probably overshooting this one, I'd say a more realistic lead is 6-8% at this point.

____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

@boom
Gallup - Obama +5 : it's not published yet.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Show me ONE state where McCain is even within the margin of error that he has to win to give him 270? I can't seem to find it! I thought it was funny 1 person in here predicts NC to obama but not OH. Ummm... He is in a much better position per polling anyways in OH.

____________________

Mike A.:

Does Rasmussen call cell phone only people? I didn't think they did but not sure. Add +3% to Obama if they don't.

____________________

straight talk:

LANDSLIDE BOOM! IT is Not TOO LAte COME ABOARD! BEFORE HISTORY IS MADE ON THE 4TH! GALLUP HAS OBAMA UP +10 RV! PEW +14

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

You are insane.

We have 5 polls now at +5 or less and you get +10 to +15?

Geesh dude, lay off the koolaid.

____________________

The_Huntsman:

If anything, PA has leveled off or is still improving for Obama. It's laughable to suggest McCain can turn around what is likely a +10 Obama lead within the last week of election.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

Look in the mirror to really see the steaming pile people are laughing at.

____________________

douglasdao:

The fact remains that every single poll has Obama ahead by larger than the margin of error and has for weeks now. The race has firmed up. Obama is clearly ahead.

____________________

Thatcher:

A more specific example for comparison:

In polling, during the entire month of October 2004 - Bush was never over 49.5 and Kerry was never below 43.5 on RCP's averages

However, in October 2008 - Obama has never been below 48.5 and McCain has never been above 44.5 on RCP's averages

Also - in 2004 the trend from October 1 until election day was definitely a tightening trend. But it is very obvious the trend in 2008 is one of expanding the lead from October 1.

____________________

NW Patrick:

McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral
Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted per Pew!

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

NEW PEW RESEARCH NATIONAL POLL

Among Registered Voters
Obama: 52
McCain: 36
Obama ahead by 16 points

Among Likely Voters
Obama: 53
McCain: 38
Obama ahead by 15 points

Boomshak, SouthernAngler...please avoid all sharp objects for the next ten minutes. I know that it’s a hefty kick in the nuts, but this too shall pass. Also, try to avoid the MSM for the rest of the day.

____________________

boomshak:

@Mike A.:

Does Rasmussen call cell phone only people? I didn't think they did but not sure. Add +3% to Obama if they don't.

And then subtract 10% for all the Republicans who are too busy to answer calls from numbers they don't recognize on their Caller ID's.

I, for one, NEVER answer a call if I don't recognize the number. If I did answer and it was a pollster, I sure as hell wouldn't sit there for a half hour answering questions.

____________________

Trosen:

mirrorball.. way different set of circumstances this year. Dole basically waved the white flag a good 2 weeks prior to Election Day and even stopped campaigning in states where he was only down single digits. It stands to reason a lot of Democrats stayed home or didn't want to bother waiting in line when it was a given so far out that it would be a landslide. This time around it would seem McCain is going down with the ship, come hell or high water. Also, with the economic situation, there's a lot more at stake in this election. I don't think that many people were "freaked" about a Bob Dole presidency, they just didn't like him all that much. I think the successful McCain-Bush tie that Obama has forged will lend a lot more urgency to GOTV drives. Also, the AA vote, despite what the trolls are telling you, is a BIG factor this time around. While the percentages won't be dramatically more D over R, the # of new AAs registered is off the charts.

____________________

whoshotsam:

boomshak, RCP should most definitely include the Pew poll. They include the joke that is IBD/TIPP.

____________________

decided:

First of all, forget IBD,Zogby and GWU and R2000.
Their sample size is too small for a national poll. Rasmussen and Gallup are the only ones to watch. They have proven themselves over years.

What is the sample size for Pew?

Furthermore, nate at 538 brings it to the point: there are far more people interviewed in state polls than in national polls. And the states do not show any movement to McCain.

____________________

asquared:

I move we all vote Pew our favorite pollster (at least for today)

____________________

NW Patrick:

Hey BOOM. I thought the low approval rating for Congress was ONLY because Dems are in control? Per pew - among voters earning $75,000 a year or more, McCain held a 53% to 39% advantage in the Sept. 9-14 survey. Now, Obama leads by 52% to 41%. After the conventions, McCain held a 52% to 38% edge among white voters. Today, he and Obama are running evenly at 44% each. In September, McCain held a 56% to 34% advantage among white respondents with some college education. Now, the candidates tally 46% each.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

Who would want to call an asshole like you in the first place? Pollsters are probably glad to hear that they don't have to spend a half hour with a sicko like you.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

fwiw, guys and gals,

www.boomshak.com is still available.

now, who wants to have some fun?

:)

____________________

DTM:

Given that Pew had a O+14 last time, their current O+15 probably isn't an outlier, but rather is the result of methodology. For example, we know Pew does cell phones, and they probably also do a lot of callbacks (judging from their numbers of respondents and time in the field), both of which could result in relatively favorable numbers for Obama.

____________________

AdamSC:

I'm noticing a lot of people using examples of past elections, referring to early voting, tightening polls, state tracking.

Guys, this is 2008. It's not 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 BUT it is indeed the year of:

Twenty-zero-eight. 2008.

You can throw that crap out the window. Referring to past elections is a mistake and will often have you scratching your head in confusion trying to figure out the stark similarities or differences between now and then.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Favorable ratings for the Republican Party, which rose sharply following the party’s convention in early September, have declined to about their previous levels. Currently, 50% say they have an unfavorable opinion of the GOP, while 40% express a favorable opinion of the party; in mid-September, about as many had a favorable opinion of the Republican Party as an unfavorable one (47% favorable vs. 46% unfavorable).

By contrast, a solid majority (57%) continues to express a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 33% have an unfavorable impression. Majorities have expressed positive opinions of the Democratic Party for the past two years (since October 2006).

____________________

mysticlaker:

I honestly had dreams about pew last night. I was dreaming it would be +5, and it woke me up worried.

Praise Jesus. We are looking at a landslide.

____________________

fed:

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 23-26 among 1,500 adults interviewed on landline and cell phones, for the first time includes minor-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. Few voters support either candidate, and their inclusion does not substantially affect the margins of support in the Obama-McCain race.

____________________

Trosen:

boomshak:

"Incredible. Now let's all guess which poll MSNBC, ABC, CBS and CNN will all lead with today?

I'm sorry, but even the most partisan Obama supporter has to laugh at this steaming pile."


Yes boom, I agree. 15 is a little high. But it still isn't exactly good news for the "surge" now is it?

You see, when I see an "outlier" poll (one that only has Obama up 2 or 3 for instance) I don't just "throw it out" because I don't like it. I average it in with the others. Because.. well, that's the SCIENTIFIC way of approaching it. (I realize that "S" word is profane in some conservative circles).

But.. sure boom.. I'll throw you a bone and say the Pew poll is a little off. I'll even grant you it's overreaching by double. That's still very bad news for your boy.

____________________

NW Patrick:

It's so curious to me. How come all of the National polls show Obama up around 10 and the "trackers" show 5. Did we have trackers in '04?

____________________

Chester:

@ Pew guys,
do you have a link for this magical poll?
(sure it's an outlier, but trend lines talk and he's up 2 from the last magical Pew poll)

If nothing else it pumps up the RCP av for a while!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Averages my friends AVERAGES. In 2004 RCP had Bush up 1.5. Today Obama is up 6.2 not even including this Pew Poll. McCain's in DEEP DEEP trouble. It's over.

____________________

abraxaf:

There may be other flaws in Pew's methodology or weighting, but there's no doubt that all other things being equal, a poll that does callbacks and cell-phone only calling should be much more accurate than one that doesn't.

____________________

laguna_b:

@asquared:

"I move we all vote Pew our favorite pollster (at least for today)"

Ayes have it!

Be interesting if they are the closest to reality this election...they seem the most sober.

____________________

AdamSC:

I'm favorable at Chuck Todd's methodology for national polling.

Simple. Take the largest poll lead and the smallest, throw them out. Take what's in between and right now that would be a 6-7% lead.

____________________

sunnymi:


Pew Poll (10/23-10/26)
McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral
Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted

Sample: 1325 RV's

Among RV's
Obama - 52
McCain - 36

Among LV's
Obama - 53
McCain - 38

http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines

____________________

mirrorball:
____________________

MichaelJason:

Pew Center for Research: Immediate Release! Obama up 16 pts.

http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines

____________________

paradski:

Let's say it is an outlier, unfortunately for mr boom what it does show is movement to Obama. No surge.

O M
oct 9-12 50 40
oct 16-19 53 39
oct 23-26 53 38

____________________

abraxaf:

NW Patrick, all election season long, standalone national polls have showed overall bigger leads than the tracking polls. Why that is, I don't know, but it's been a clear trend.

____________________

Chester:

what's fascinating about the Pew poll is that in the last 2 weeks O's support in Dem states is -4, in Repub states is +5, and in battles is +1. It also has him +4 among $75,000 + earners... so much for the socialism arguement.

http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines

____________________

straight talk:

IF ALL THE NATIONAL POLLS INCLUDED CELL PHONES THIS PERCENTAGES WOULD RESULT IN OBAMA + 2-3% JUST LIKE PEW! EVEN SAYING THAT THE STATE POLLS SUGGESTS THAT THE NATIONAL TREND IS 7+!

____________________

thoughtful:

@boom
you told me I was insane in July when I told you NC would go blue.

at the same time I did say outside chance that Georgia would go blue.

At that time you were in good ladies company with Stillow; Bosko; Marctx; what happened to Player; Undecided before becoming Kiptin?

390+EVs

____________________

DTM:

By the way, the final Pew poll in 2004:

Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 Bush +3

____________________

AdamSC:

*REPORT: BREAKING NEWS *

John McCain involved in a seriously fatal car accident in 1964 that may have killed someone.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/news-orgs-investigate-pos_n_138449.html

JOHN MCMURDERER?

By the way, I LOL'd when I read this report. Come on now, I hope they don't go on the air with this ridiculousness.

(Maybe he thought the person in the other car was a Marxist/Communist/Socialist?)

____________________

NW Patrick:

FACT - Even IBD's +3 is TWICE Bush's averag lead going into election day '04. Oh Boom. The Republican party is about to DISAPPEAR for a decade! HA!

____________________

abraxaf:

Does anyone know, do standalone national polls typically do callbacks, while tracking polls don't?

____________________

JCK:

The trackers don't call people back. Republicans like BOOM may not answer their cell phones for pollsters, but Obama supporters, as a whole, are more difficult to reach.

It's at least possible that the tracking polls are underestimating Obama's support. But either way, I'll take the 5 point national lead along with significant leads in all of the swing states.

There could be surprise here. But not what Boom is hoping or wanting.

However you slice it, McCain is in deep, deep trouble here.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

"@damitajo1:
I just noticed the 26% Republican demographic. Is there any legitimacy to this?"

boomshak:
"- No."

I have to agree with boomshak for once. Good luck finding 26 Republicans.

____________________

sunnymi:


Party Identification on the Pew Poll

Dem - 38.8%
Rep - 28.6%
Ind - 32.5%

____________________

mysticlaker:

@boom

2004 Pew Poll:

Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 Bush 51% Kerry 48% 1% Bush +3

Looks like the were the most accurate pollster in 2004...Praise Jesus.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

IMPORTANCE OF THE PEW POLL

1) You may disagree with the spread, but the week-to-week steadiness is encouraging i.e. Obama up by one point
2) RealClearPolitics, Pollster and CNN Poll of Polls will include the Pew poll at Obama +15. This should mitigate the effects of partisan hacks like IBD.
3) Another media cycle lost to the McCain campaign as pundits spend precious time arguing about this poll.

That being said, it's still all about the electoral college and Obama has outflanked McCain in every region of the country. 300+ is a strong likelihood.

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

@ abraxaf

A possible reason for the difference in stand alones and trackers is that stand-alones usually do more call backs because they aren't as pressed for time or for a certian N for the day.

____________________

NW Patrick:

MNLatteLiberal national statistics show about a 9% Dem weighting advantage. Did you guys want to base on fact or what you "believe" is the actual #?

____________________

AdamSC:

@Shannon

I'd like to see Obama win Montana, but unfortunately I really don't see that outcome.

But it goes to show his FIFTY ONE STATE strategy is paying off in big dividends.

____________________

OGLiberal:

@boomshak

I'm a flaming liberal and a Democrat and I also NEVER answer my phone if I don't recognize the number or if I can clearly tell it's a telemarketer or a pollster. The behavior is not exclusive to Republicans. I think answering every call that comes in to one's household is a generational thing - folks under 50 are much less likely to answer a call from a number they don't recognize than folks over that age. It's even more likely that seniors will answer the call. (because they are lonely, because it's just what they do, because it might be their grandkids, because there might be something wrong with a friend/family member, etc.) So I think landline only polls tend to skew in favor of older people, regardless of party affiliation.

This, of course, is all just a hunch on my part, based on personal observations and anecdotal evidence. It is by no means a scientific analysis.

____________________

adherosignori:

I don't think that this number is right. I mean they are not including the crucial votes that Palin/McCain will pick up in key voting areas like Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, US Virgin Islands, not to mention the rarely talked about American Samoa, Baker Island, Howland Island, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kingman Reef, Bajo Nuevo Bank (which means Bajo New Bank), Serranilla Bank, Midway Islands, Navassa Island, Wake Atoll. The numbers that I have found by doing some research on non-liberally bias news websites are, not shockingly, pro Palin/McCain because of their pro-life values and main street beliefs.

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

@ abraxaf
I didn't see your second comment. I could have just written. Yes.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Pew was pretty accurate in 2004...maybe overstating Bush's lead by 1%. WOW. They did really well in '04!

____________________

abraxaf:

That Pew party ID isn't anything outlandish at all, though I'm sure boom will claim it is.

____________________

sunnymi:


Pew was the most accurate pollster in 2004 among the regulars who have been doing this for several election cycles(I do not trust IBD as he is a fly-by-night operator).

____________________

abraxaf:

What is a joke is that anyone takes Zogby seriously when they claim they're using the same weightings as 2004!

____________________

NW Patrick:

(Boomshack impersonation)

***BREAKING NEWS*** WHEN THIS GETS OUT TO THE MAJOR NEWS MEDIA IT's GOING TO BE A MCCAIN SLIDE! "John McCain involved in a seriously fatal car accident in 1964 that may have killed someone."

***THIS IS HUGE!****

____________________

jeepdad:

@ thoughtful:

I agree. Obama is clearly outperforming Kerry in nearly all the dark blue states, including huge margins in California and NY. Plus Obama has at least 10 red states within single digits -- even Arizona -- and he's actually ahead in most of them. The state polls indicate a larger national lead than the 4-5 points we are seeing in some of these tracking polls.

____________________

orange24:

I hope they don't go on the air with this ridiculousness.

I agree. I absolutely despise the dishonorable campaign this man has run, but he is a true American Hero. I was firmly behind him in 2000 when he truly was a maverick.He's going to lose in a landslide in what will probably be his last national election. There's no need to disgrace him on his way out. Keep hitting him on his GWB policies. Leave this kind of trash to the republicans.

____________________

thoughtful:

Montana will be the tightest result in this election either way a few thousand votes either way. Georgia will be Obama's closest win otherwise and West Virginia's McCain's.

I have it at 390+ EVs!

Insane be realistic Boomshak. All you have to do is step outside your front door in NC to see its true blue

____________________

DTM:

@NW Patrick

I think there are basically two reasons why the tracking polls tend to show slightly lower numbers for Obama on average than the non-tracking polls.

The first is just that Obama supporters are disproportionately hard to poll in various ways (e.g., more of them are cell-phone-only users and more of them need callbacks to reach), which means polls reaching them are going to be more expensive, and tracking polls tend to opt for less expensive methods for more or less obvious reasons.

The second is that for whatever reason the tracking polls seem to favor more "traditional" weightings and likely voter models on average. I'm not sure why that is the case, but it has predictable results on the average of the tracking polls.

@abraxaf

I think tracking polls usually do less callbacks simply because they need to collect a new sample daily. And of course any poll with an even number of respondents (which I believe is true of at least Rasmussen and Battleground) is likely doing few if any callbacks.

____________________

AdamSC:

@NW Patrick

I LOL'd at that article, but you showed a far superior attempt at humor than me.

The Media won't pick up on it because really, neither campaign will be talking about it.

Now on the flip side if this was Barack Obama who possibly killed someone in a car crash.

Republicans would be all over it.

____________________

Thatcher:

Hey Boomshak ---

Your own words (on the first Pew poll /blogs/us_obama_46_mccain_46_pew9914.html ) posted on September 19, 2008 8:59 AM

CONCLUSION:
All other things be equal, the conservative tide always rises the last week before the election as people choose substance over style, especially during troubling times as these are.

Unless Barack has a 5 point lead a week before the election, he loses by 1-2 points.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I disagree. I hope they disgrace him. He sold his soul the the right and engaged in a nasty campaign. After JUMPING ALL over the poor little white girl jumped by a 6'4 black man story McCain can eat my ass. I hope every negative story is run on McCain.

____________________

adherosignori:

@ OGLiberal

As long as we are talking about people not picking up their telephones because not knowing the name, the number is also not including the groups of seniors who are scared of telephones ringing, cannot hear the phone ringing/or the person on the other end, ext. Lets face it, the only way that we can get an accurate poll is if their grandchildren did all the polling.

Palin '012

____________________

AdamSC:

@Thoughtful

Obama will win with 344 Electoral Votes.


He will not win Georgia, nor will he win Montana and also I don't think he'll win either Ohio and Indiana.

He will win: Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina. Someone earlier mocked me because I said Obama would win North Carolina while losing Ohio. The African American population rate in North Carolina is a much larger significance than it is in Ohio.

____________________

sunnymi:

PEW Final Polls for 2000 and 2004

Nov 6, 2000 Election Weekend Survey
Pew Research Center Final Survey; Popular Vote A Tossup

Bush 49%
Gore 47%
Nader 4%

http://people-press.org/report/25/popular-vote-a-tossup-bush-49-gore-47-nader-4

Oct 31, 2004 Election Weekend 2004
Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign; No Impact Detected from bin Laden Tape

Bush - 51%
Kerry - 48%

http://people-press.org/report/232/slight-bush-margin-in-final-days-of-campaign

____________________

straight talk:

@ Mccain Supporters

Obama gained! PEW IS very ACCURATE! How can you not say that Obama is not up by this margin, when state polling has him at 350+EV! He has to be some where in the Bill clinton avg. nationally to do what he is doing in the state polls! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ AdamSC:
@Shannon:
@ thoughtful

I talked to fellow Obama volunteers and they are very excited about two "long-shot" states; Montana and Georgia. In Montana, the word they are getting from higher-ups is that Ron Paul is siphoning votes from McCain and that their internals have it pretty close.

Unfortunately, North Dakota is not looking too good in spite of the recent public polls.

____________________

AdamSC:

Last batch of Qunnipiac and CNN/Time state polls coming out today and tomorrow.

I think CNN/TIME polls are coming out today around 4:30 EST.

____________________

carl29:

Good morning ladies and gentlemen :-)

I see that the issue right now is Pew Poll. Want my opinion? Let's put the numbers aside and just look at the overall trend. What does pew poll have in common with all other pollsters? Well, the race has hold steady since the last realese, and Obama is above 50%.

I personally believe that McCain support is a little underestimated maybe because the pollster didn't push people enough. People who support Obama don't need to be pushed because they already made up their minds. However, McCain needs to give people reasons to bother actually going out and vote for him. The smears and scared tactics don't seem to work that well because people are already scared about the economy and their families financial future.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@thathcer

Good man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Boom, boom, boom
I have to hide in my room
Ras, Hotline, gallup
All show an Obama wallup
My polls all suck
I am no smarter than a duck
Too bad I just can't cower
In Palin's 150K lipstick tower

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@AdamSC

Wow, I read the article about McCain being involved in a 1964 fatal car crash at the Naval base and that just begs to question, at 72 years of age, whether he released all of his medical records or not.

I'm sure the McCain campaign will have to release a statement soon.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Damn Boom. YOUR OWN WORDS ALWAYS COME BACK TO HAUNT YOU:)

"I think you would agree with me that nobody is gonna run away with this thing. Only one poll on one day put Obama over 50% at the height of his post-convention surge.

To win this thing (3rd party candidates likely will not factor at all), Obama will need to do something Democrats have only done twice in 60 years and not at all in the last 30 years - get more than 50% of the popular vote."

____________________

Viperlord:

I'm predicting Obama to win 364 EVs. Any other predictions?

____________________

Dan:

lol from Sep 18, boomshak

"CONCLUSION:
This will likely be a 1-2 point race and look more like 2004 than most people think. The economy will likely be surging, gas and food prices will be lower and people will feel better about their futures."

____________________

jeepdad:

Fox News has been quoting a recent Pew Research Center poll to help build their case that McCain has been treated unfairly by the media. Since Pew is apparently their favorite pollster these days, will Fox News trumpet today's huge Obama lead? Likely not.

____________________

AdamSC:

@NextAmericanChapter


I live in South Carolina and often visit the southwestern part of the state that borders Georgia. This part of the state is highly conservative and in Senator Muck's words, full of racists and rednecks.

____________________

Thatcher:

crap - that last line in my last post should have been italicized as well.

@Boomshak -

You posted on September 19, 2008 8:59 AM in response to thoughtful

Unless Barack has a 5 point lead a week before the election, he loses by 1-2 points.

Well - Obama has an RCP average lead of 6.2 (not counting Pew's latest +15) ... by your own words - you are stating Obama will win the election. Thank you!

Ok everyone - we can stop arguing with Boomshak - he predicted it ... Obama to win on November 4!

____________________

JCK:

Carl29

Yup. Pew and ABC have Obama at 52%, Ras at 51%, Daily Kos and Hotline at 50%, Gallup at 50-53% (depending on model). Even BG and Zogby (who thinks it's 2004) are at 49%.

Pew probably doesn't push the leaners as much as Ras does, but they're nonpartisan and well-respected in the polling industry.

____________________

BigTex:

You have to take 5 points off these polls people. Kerry should have won Ohio, Florida and maybe one or two others and should have caried PA by over 8 points. Thank you Diebold, et al.

Wake up. Do we believe there are:

*No voter list scrubs
*No vote machine tampering
*Enough voting machines to match the record turnout in the minority areas
*People going into the booth and seeing "Hussein" as Obama's middle name and freaking out

This is too close. Ohio, FL, NC, and even VA which almost re-elected George Allen for God's sake, all could easily go to McCain! This could be a long night!

____________________

Dewey1858:

Rasmussen PA due out today; should be interesting.

____________________

carl29:

JCK,

That's right :-) 49% or 50% is the same statistically speaking.

____________________

thoughtful:

Good Morning Carlita

I think you do have it on the head.

AdamSC

over 50% of RVs will not vote for John McCain as he is too old.

McCain will do very well indeed to get 43% of votes cast. Obama will get between 51% and 54%. Mccain's upper limit is 45.5% but that is dependent on lack of Obama enthusiam in turn out.

Obama will win Georgia by over 1%; with MO 2%and Indiana by 3 - 4 %. Clear wins by over 5% in both Ohio and Florida.
390+ EVs: Obama may turn Montana but WV is just a little too far.

____________________

Ryguy:

boom, seeing as im an educated liberal elitist... let me help you out with something. see, you don't really know how to structure any kind of argument. one can't discredit a poll as "in obama's tank" when the poll shows a double digit lead, and then use that same poll to show that there is movement towards mccain when it is down to single digits. If one does that, it only offers further evidence that said person is bat sh*t crazy

____________________

Ryguy:

big tex... thats what so many of you guys seem to be forgetting.... obama doesnt even need ohio, florida, north carolina, or virginia. thats just icing on the cake if he gets is... and chances are he will get at least one of them anyways.

____________________

truebljb1:

Rasmussen was just on Fox and he said the Pennsylvania numbers will be released at five, bu that it has closed significantly from there last poll. Whatever your bias, I am a premium member at Rasmussen (I don't always like his numbers), but he seems to be the most reliable and stable. Interesting to see that number.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

The car crash incident makes me wonder if the McCain campaign released any information in regards to psychological treatments McCain may have received in miltary service or otherwise.

I would think that it would be pertinent given the fact that he is a former POW.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Dewey1858:

Scott Rasmussen says Pennsylvania won't be a double-digit lead for Obama. Expect to see +6 or 7.

____________________

carl29:

Hello thoughtful,

We'll see how things go. We are finally in the last week of this "craziness" :-)

____________________

thoughtful:

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas

I have been on about the lack of disclosure of McCain's full military psychological profile and records since April!

There is a lot missing here especially about his ability to lead

____________________

carl29:

NextAmericanChapter,

I would say Rasmussen numbers in PA will have Obama around 50% and McCain around 45%.

____________________

Thatcher:

@NextAmericanChapter ...

And my response about PA being +6 or +7 ... Oh darn ... ROFLMAO MCCAIN SURGE! - NOT!

I'll take that number, I'm good.

____________________

WhereisMitt:

Rasmussen has usually had the PA race fairly tight. I'm guessing that the last poll, which was O+13 on 10/6, was probably his version of an outlier. It's probably back to the 9/28 result of O+8.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ thoughtful:
@ Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

I think you're barking up the wrong tree. McCain can function as a leader just fine and any brouhaha about his health will backfire. I like McCain personally (and so do many other Obama supporters). I just think that his ideas are wrong for the country, his VP choice was a joke and that his campaign has been poorly run.

____________________

Ryguy:

yeah, all dems are really worried about PA... a state thats been dark blue for weeks now. wasnt it predicted to be with in the margin of error in 04 and kerry won it easily? keep it up mccain. use that $5 you have left in your shrinking campaign and stay in PA for the final week.

____________________

Thatcher:

Virginia Voter Suppression:

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/10/phony-flier-says-virginians-vote-different-days

Phony flier says Virginians vote on different days

I've seen this type of flier so many times - 2 times in VA and once in Orlando (in Spanish).

I wonder if it ever is really effective? Maybe in the days prior to 98% of households owning a TV set ... but I doubt anytime in recent years.

____________________

carl29:

Based on Rasmussen numbers in 2004 in PA, he should be around other pollsters that have released numbers recently. Let's see how he was doing compared to other pollsters in 2004:


Strategic Vision (R) | 10/29-31 B 46% K 47% - Kerry +1

Quinnipiac | 10/27-31 B 47 K 47 - TIE

Rasmussen | 10/25-31 B 47 K 49 - Kerry +2

Strategic Vision (R) | 10/25-27 B 48 K 48 - TIE

Temple Univ | 10/22-27 B 47 K 48 - Kerry +1
---------------------------------

Right now we have Temple U. with Obama up by 9%, at 50%. We also have Strategic Vision with Obama up by 7%, with Obama at 50%. We also have Quinnipiac with Obama up by 13%, with Obama at 53%. If Rasmussen is doing things like he did them in 2004, history suggests that his numbers shouldn't be far from these other pollsters. We'll see :-)

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NextAmericanChapter:

@ carl29:
@ Thatcher:

The RCP average in Pennsylvania has had Obama up by +10/12 for the past few weeks. I think that this will tighten to +8/10 over the rest of the week. It will still be a comfortable win for Obama (in spite of Murtha taking a dump on Western PA).

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Ryguy:

since weve decided to go back to this ridiculous PA argument. let me ask you republicans something. how can you sit here and argue that obama will not win states that he is averaging a lead in (VA, CO, NC, MO, FL, OH... hell all of th e key battleground states) while at the same time continue to argue that mccain will win a state that show him behind by an average of 10.8 on RCP?

do you not see a small flaw in your arguments?

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NextAmericanChapter:

WOW THERE...BEFORE WE START UP THE PENNSYLVANIA ARGUMENT...

No one rational is suggesting that McCain will win in PA. All we're saying is that today's Rasmussen number will be in the high single digits.

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MNLatteLiberal:

NW Patrick:

"MNLatteLiberal national statistics show about a 9% Dem weighting advantage. Did you guys want to base on fact or what you "believe" is the actual #?"


Patrick, not that it matters, but my only point is that in light of the GOP splintering in the two weeks leading to the elections, the 26% number might be a bit on the high side.
"Good luck finding 26 Republicans" was a facetious comment.

I appreciate your enthusiasm though.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@NextAmericanChapter

McCain can function as a leader just fine

McCain is 72 years old. He's old than Reagan was when he took office. Many of still remember Reagan's response to congressional inquires into the Iran-Contra scandal. Add to that the fact that McCain is a former POW, and no one seems to know what his mental health history is. We know that there have been accounts of tempermental outbursts.

It's a HUGE issue.

The car crash is the October surprise. It's one more unknown that should be answered 'yes' or 'no' before voters go to the polls.

The campaign should answer:

Was he in a fatal car crash? 'Yes' or 'No'

Did he receive psychological treatment? 'Yes' or 'No'

Is he still receiving psychological counseling? 'Yes' or 'No'

Is there any other medical information that hasn't been revealed that would be relevant to his ability to serve at the age of 72? 'Yes' or 'No'

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Hans24:

BOOMSHAK:

Talk about wealth redistribution:


"We're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

-- Gov. Sarah Palin, quoted by the New Yorker, a few weeks before she was nominated for vice president.


OH NO! NOW MC CAIN/PALIN, TOO! Socialists and Commies!

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