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US: Obama 50, McCain 43 (Hotline 10/22-24)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/22-24, 08; 869 LV 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 43

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Steady as she goes again today. I'll take the 7-12 point swing in polls that are out now. Any way you look at it, we are about to experience something historic and massive. 10 more days, my friends!

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE

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TheCanadian:

Things are looking good. No signs of slowing down for Obama. Great news from the Ras poll was that 48% of the voters said they were definitely voting for Obama. 33

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drinkwine247:

Can anyone explain why they are still talking to Joe "not a real plumber" Wurzlbacher about anything? What else do you want?? He is a fake plumber that gave money to McCain, who tried to get at Obama about taxes and realized his taxes would be cut, then continues to criticize the tax policy!!!!!!! I just don't understand why a flac is getting all this airtime. We live in reality T.V. land!!!

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[nemesis]:

TheCanadian:

Are you IN Canada or FROM Canada?

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Pazienza:

What do you all make of this?

Obama Refuses to Answer Birth Certificate Lawsuit
By: Kenneth R. Timmerman

A Pennsylvania lawsuit alleging that Barack Obama is not a “natural-born citizen” of the United States took an unusual twist this week, after a federally mandated deadline requiring Obama’s lawyers to produce a “vault” copy of his birth certificate expired with no response from Obama or his lawyers.

http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/obama_birth_certificate/2008/10/24/143882.html


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TheCanadian:

From Canada. I've been in the US for 9 years now, this will be the first presidential election I can vote in (I received my citizenship in 2006, so I did vote in the midterm election)

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TheCanadian:

Pazienza:

That is the biggest joke of a lawsuit I've ever seen.

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Atomique:

@Pazienza:

I say bull****. Another right-wing lie intended to question Obama's patriotism and American-ness so he seems like a scary outside foreigner.

Fact: President Barack Hussein Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii.

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html

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Kile Thomson:

LOL @ Lawsuit

100% BS

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Atomique:

Oh, and by the way, John McCain was born in friggin' Panama!

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johncoz:

Essentially at the same level as everyone else if you boil down their undecideds to the same level as Ras or Gallup.

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AdamSC:

Ohio Newspaper Poll: Obama +3

Morning Call(Pennsylvania): Obama +11

Colorado: Obama +12

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MNLatteLiberal:

drinkwine247,
what else can McCampaign talk about? They tried the trifecta (Ayers, Rezko, Wright) - nobody cares. Though, the latter, thus far has been verbotten acc. to McCain, though Palin has been itching to go there. They tried lying about taxes - doesn't take. They cannot talk economy worth diddly. They tried socialism, but nobody really knows what socialism is or cares in the 21st century America. Then their flagship USS Bachmann sinks by her own torpedo with that message.

They know they have to talk economy, but in their own way...so...without doing any vetting, they grab onto JoeThePlumber. They ought to have vetted Palin, they didn't. They ought to have vetted Ifell, they didn't. They ought to have vetted/checked Ms Todd, they didn't.

They are so CLEARLY not thinking their points through. It's all tactical and no strategy. Joe caught their eye like a shiny penny. They grabbed on to him. The story seemed to upset the Democrats and the media because of all of the disparities and holes in the JTP story we discussed. So, McThinking is, on a gut level, this annoys the other side, so it's GOT to be good. And they ride that hobby horse into the sunset.

Meanwhile, I am sitting here and counting these blessings in MN:
- Palin
- Bachamnn
- Joe
etc.
We could not have asked for any better turn of the events for Democrats this election. The McCampaign is a string of self-inflicted wounds. Just smile and say thank you.
:)

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johncoz:

Lawsuit? ... More joke material from the tin foil hat brigade.

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Vokoban:

@ Pazienza

Newsmax called a photo of German people demonstrating against the Iraq war in 2003 "the new Hitlers".

If you believe a single word of what Newsmax writes you're even more stupid than Palin.

Shut up, fascist!

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AdamSC:

@Paziena

It's been proven again and again that he's a real American born in Hawaii. Reporters have held his authentic birth certificate. This is an old issue, you lose.

And in the words of the absent Boom.

"Fail"

http://fightthesmears.com/articles/5/birthcertificate

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kerrchdavis:

How can 1 person be wrong about EVERYTHING EVERY TIME?

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Trosen:
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Indiana4Obama:

Do you think if Obama and Biden just went into hiding the last 10 days and let Mccain/Palin have all access to the news media and the publc that Obama would actually increase his lead?

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Atomique:

@ AdamSC:

Obama +12 in Colorado?! Link?

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MNLatteLiberal:

Atomique:

"Oh, and by the way, John McCain was born in friggin' Panama!"

And so long ago, that a freaken 1937 act of Congress had to de facto GRANDFATHER him in.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McCain_presidential_campaign,_2008#Eligibility

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southern angler:

I have been telling you guys about Obama not being a US citizen for months. Here is your October Surprise.

obamacrimes.com

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southern angler:

Doesn't matter what any of the polls say when Obama is declarified. This is sooooo funny. Boomshak you have to love this.

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kerrchdavis:

so much for Obama peaking too early.

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Indiana4Obama:

The CO poll was released today by the Rocky Mountain News...it's up on Real Clear Politics.

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Atomique:

LOL "declarifying" is indeed what the right is doing these days!

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southern angler:

Conservative radio in Charlotte has already picked this story up.

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kerrchdavis:

@southern

I agree. You guys have a better chance of proving Obama is a non-citizen than you do of actually winning this election.

lol! landslide baby. President Obama :)

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MNLatteLiberal:

@southern angler,
so, what do you think will happen on Nov 5 after President-Elect Obama is elected in a historical landslide? Is southern angler marching on Washington in a million man march to invalidate the results based on...well, doesn't really matter what you base it on. I am after what YOU personally are going to do.

I am very curious about the right wing lunatic fringe thinking on this. Have been for months. Despite ALL your diligence and hard work, Obama gets elected. What then? What do you do then? I wanna hear a fresh talking point.

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johncoz:

Here I was posting about the tin-foil hat brigade and right on cue southern angler appears.

You really are a very poor advertisement for your country, your state, and your politics.

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AdamSC:

Next Wednesday there will be a nine minute ad run through out the networks on television from the Obama campaign.

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kerrchdavis:

@MN

Hopefully southern will channel his disappointment towards productive means, such as cleaning up his trailer park.

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RussTC3:

Here's the data (and comparison) for the Colorado poll.

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Rocky Mountain News, 10/21-23 (8/11-13 in parenthesis)
Obama 52 (41)
McCain 40 (44)
Obama +11, McCain -4 = 15 point Obama swing

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MNLatteLiberal:

southern angler:

"Conservative radio in Charlotte has already picked this story up"

what? is that your freudian slip showing through all the lures, hooks and live bait? boom? is this another reincarnation of the one true conservative?

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southern angler:

If any of you Obamabots would visit Obamacrimes.com you too would have seen this coming a couple of days ago. In fact I posted it on Weds. MSM cannot continue to ignore it now that a judge has ruled against Obama. As stated in Paziena's post, several other law suites have now been filed in other states. Never trust a Clinton Barry.

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RussTC3:

RBI Strategy & Research (D) consulted on the poll, just as they did with the last one from August.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@kerrchdavis,
LOL. What the angler doesn't know, is that we have a friend who has a source deep inside the Charlotte conservative radio. And he tells me that everyone inside the radio station is panicking. Panicking because they cannot make up internet rumors fast enough.

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DTM:

I am not familiar with the details of the Berg case, but I believe Obama and the DNC filed a motion to dismiss. Doing so automatically stayed their obligation to provide responsive answers until ten days after the Court resolves the Motion to Dismiss. See Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 12(a)(4).

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Thatcher:

Look - Ok ...

1) Don't you think that the major parties would assure that every candidate running for president has passed the background check for the ability to actually hold the office?

2) Once a candidate appears to become a front-runner and the secret service is assigned to guard him ... there is a background check done then

3) Don't you think that if he actually WASN'T a native born citizen that the Bush Administration's Justice Department held a press conference on this fact?

Anyone ... ANYONE thinking that the birth thing is still an issue is just plain stupid. No mincing words ... you are stupid, dumb ... have no common sense, shouldn't be allowed to make your own decisions and have a mentally capable adult handling all of your affairs.

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MNLatteLiberal:

southern angler:

"If any of you Obamabots would visit Obamacrimes.com you too would have seen this coming a couple of days ago. In fact I posted it on Weds. MSM cannot continue to ignore it now that a judge has ruled against Obama. As stated in Paziena's post, several other law suites have now been filed in other states. Never trust a Clinton Barry."

Angler, I hate to break it to you, I really do, but I have to confess something here and now. I have a friend deep inside the Internet and he broke into the obamacrimes.com as its webmaster and at my urging has been posting the most bizarro and idiotic trolls we could think of here in our liberal media tank.

So, dude, you've been, like, so TOTALLY HAD!!

PS:

OWN!!!

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kerrchdavis:

@Thatcher

"Anyone ... ANYONE thinking that the birth thing is still an issue is just plain stupid. No mincing words ... you are stupid, dumb ... have no common sense, shouldn't be allowed to make your own decisions and have a mentally capable adult handling all of your affairs."

Throw in "Red-neck" too and that pretty much sums up Southern Angler.

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DecaturMark:
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johncoz:

Yep, DTM. Makes no difference to Angler though, he's part of the "I was abducted and sexually penetrated by aliens" blight on American rationality. Makes boom look like a paragon of reason.

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southern angler:

Latte,
Say whatever will make you feel good at the moment, then realized the reality of the real moment. Barry is a foreigner. At least John McCain is an American citizen. Just think for all of your hard work to guard this website and to project yourself as a pompous ass you have failed, fore Barry will lose and you still come off as very common.

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DTM:

Oh, and the Court last night granted the Obama/DNC motion and dismissed the Berg case for lack of standing, as expected:

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/20081025_Judge_rejects_Montco_lawyer_s_bid_to_have_Obama_removed_from_ballot.html

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kerrchdavis:

lol! A boomshak moment. Southern was screaming and hollering about the merits of a case that has already been dismissed?

epic fail!

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Ryguy:

the only people stupid enough to cling on to this xenophobic lie of an attack are people who would never have voted obama... people like southern angler for instance! oh, im sure southern angler still believes that a scary black obama supporter attacked a poor young white girl and carved a B in her face.

black people...scary...

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MNLatteLiberal:

am i the only one here who misses boom? and his relative credibility vs some of the newer specimen?

southern angler, while i truly do appreciate your attempts, they fall WAY short. there is a certain standard for all of you wingnuts to uphold and you fall WAY short of that.

for one thing, your rants are way too short and focused. you seem to be married to one idiocy at a time, whereas a TRUE pollster troll exhibits way more creativity and overall lunacy. in short, look at McCampaign and try to match/reflect how erratic it is in your postings.

and lastly, good luck!
i know i speak for at least kerrchdavis and me, when i say we are expecting new great entertainment from ya. YES YOU CAN!

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joethedummer:

Obama is polling at 50 to 53 and mcsame at 40 to 44 in all the polls which tells you everything you need to know. basically obama is sitting on an 8 point lead going into the final 10 days!

The way the mcsame campaign has turned it to the abandone ship campaign , I could see a 12 point win on the 4th!

did someone say lanslide?

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kerrchdavis:

So, what happens to this site when the election is over?

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kerrchdavis:

@southern

lol, no one is going to poke through your crap.

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laguna_b:

Natural Born does not even require to be born IN the USA, only of American parent(s). Hawaii counts as does his mother for sure.....I would LOVE to see the Fairness Doctrine re-instated....

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southern angler:

laguna you can see it all on obamacrimes.com

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cjk002:

What's with all the trolls claiming this phony lawsuit by Berg is an "October Surprise?"

Berg has been trying to derail Obama's nominmation since June, he's been thrown out of every court he has come before, and no one with any credibility will even get near him.

His latest lawsuit was thrown out last night.

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laguna_b:

@kerrchdavis
>>>So, what happens to this site when the election is over?

If it were possible to pour champaign through the internet, that might be a good choice....I have a double bottel of Reoderer that I am saving for Nov. 4 nite.

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MNLatteLiberal:

southern angler:

Latte,
"Say whatever will make you feel good at the moment, then realized the reality of the real moment. Barry is a foreigner."

I just LOVE how your command over the English grammar in the first sentence is superimposed with the sentiment of the second here. Admit it, you did that on purpose. C'mon, angie, fess up. But the oxymorons notwithstanding,
you are STILL missing my point.

It's not say whatever will blah blah, it's WHAT YOU do that makes me feel giddy and tingly all over. All along there you thought it was Obama, but no, it's been you who made my morning! But you, sir, are no boomshak!


"At least John McCain is an American citizen."

Look up "natural born citizen" in wikipedia and see how they have a special paragraph there on how McCain is NOT. I would love to have a rational discussion on that with you, angler. I think I can make a stronger case against McCain than you can for Obama that has been dismissed and debunked ad nauseam.

"Just think for all of your hard work to guard this website and to project yourself as a pompous ass you have failed, fore Barry will lose and you still come off as very common."

The difference between us is, I don't think of it as work. I happen to come off as a pompous ass without any effort. I, like Obama, am naturally elitist.

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Ryguy:

oh no not news max... nooooooooooo. ive been proven wrong. i also read an interesting article there about obama being a terrorist. fascinating what you find out when you read. oh and also hes a marxist i read there as well.

hes a foreign marxist terrorist sent here from a small hidden soviet pocket that still exists in afghanistan. once elected to power he will raise our taxes and bomb our buildings at the same time. kiss american goodbye you patriots. its time for a new era...

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southern angler:

This is the real reason Obama is in Hawaii right now. Obama is trying to cover his tracks.

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laguna_b:

@southern angler

I hope you HAD a big 401k and I hope you did as well as most of us, then maybe you would question your erratic outta control candidate and his ability to bring calm.

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MNLatteLiberal:

angler, quit ducking the issue. are we marching on washington nov. 5th or what? A simple YES or NO.

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DTM:

@kerrchdavis

Traffic goes way down for a while, but we live in the era of the perpetual election. So, next up for polling geeks: tracking presidential approval ratings combined with looking ahead to the 2010 election, plus early polling on the favorites for the losing party's nomination in 2012 (some of which we are already seeing).

@southern angler

The Motion to Dismiss was granted and the case is over.

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johncoz:

southern angler:
"This is the real reason Obama is in Hawaii right now. Obama is trying to cover his tracks."

Who's been listening to that bloated toad Rush Limbaugh?

So you have any original ideas, angler?

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southern angler:

You will all see the ways of my grand wisdon soon.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@DTM,
nothing you say to southern angler matters. and especially facts.

he has only one talking point.
and it is stale.
and he cannot get a newer one from the mother ship until this one sticks.

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laguna_b:

@MNlatteliberal

While we are in general agreement, McCain is a citizen because he met the test of being born to a citizen while temporarily overseas. Obama would have met the same test if need be because of at least his mother. (not sure about his father). In anycase these are clearly frivolous lawsuits. The issue would have had traction long ago if it had any validity at all.

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jonny87:

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 50% believe talk of that issue has hurt McCain’s effort.

oh well.

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MNLatteLiberal:

yes, laguna_b, but what you are forgetting in your point is that we are both REASONABLE thinking adults. LOL

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laguna_b:

I so look forward to the Fairness Doctrine putting all the one-sided lying rightwing windbags either off the air or giving time for real responses...the end of the Murdoch propaganda machine!

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Napoleon Complex:

@kerrchdavis:

Calling Southern Angler/Gregster a redneck is an insult to the intelligence of rednecks all over North Carolina.

Amazing that they keep bringing up this story that was debunked months ago. I guess open death threats are next as the desperation grows.

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southern angler:

CIA is all over Obama in Hawaii.

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MNLatteLiberal:

i don't know what "grand wisdon" is, but i for one, cannot wait to see it.

hurry up, angie. show us your great wisdon. (and I hope it is not too hairy)

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jonny87:

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 50% believe talk of that issue has hurt McCain’s effort.

*on ayers btw

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jonny87:

would be nice to see obama creeping up on gallup

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RussTC3:

Averaging out the four national tracking polls that have been released thus far today (Zogby, R2K, Rasmussen and Hotline), there's basically no change from yesterday:

10/25/2008 (10/24/2008 in parenthesis)
Obama 51.28 (51.33)
McCain 42.15 (42.25)

Obama +9.13 (+9.08)

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laguna_b:

I too miss Boomshak.....he could be a bit wierd, but i never felt that he was nasty or vile like so mny of the rightwingnuts you run into, especially when thier power is threatened. He would be a good barometer for the next 4 years to see what Obamas administration does to turn the right leftward with positive results....

Too bad Mnlatteliberal is not here right now to enjoy a great cappucino off my Elektra and toast to upcoming change!

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MNLatteLiberal:

southern angler:

"CIA is all over Obama in Hawaii."

First of all, it's not CIA, it's Secret Service.
And secondly, they are protecting Obama from militia nuts like you.

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Kile Thomson:

WTF ?

some of these posts are so lame

how old are you people ? 6 ?

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MNLatteLiberal:

laguna_b, I was in corona del mar just two months ago for a couple of weeks vacation. i rented a cervello r3 from laguna cyclery and put on about 100 miles in 24 hours up and down pch.

small world.
and thanks for the latte :)

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NextAmericanChapter:

The amazing thing is that there are a couple of million nutjobs like Boom and this SouthernAngler doucebag who tune in to Limbaugh and Hannity everyday.

Not to worry though, Colin Powell spoke the truth when he said that the Republican party is becoming too narrow. They've alienated independents, Blacks, Latinos, Jews and women. Now even moderate Republicans are switching to Obama. And with Sarah Palin as "the future" of the Republican party, the GOP is in its last throes. Good riddance to you creationist, global-warming denying, hate-mongering, anti-intellectual freaks.

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kerrchdavis:

@next

they're a dying breed, and I'm loving every second of watching them collapse.

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johncoz:

@NextAmericanChapter

It's worse than that. Limbaugh's radio audience is said to 20 million. There's some serious pathology out there.

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zotz:

MNLatteLiberal-
Do you notice the tone of resentment in southern angler because Obama is getting protection. His posts virtually drip with racism and violence. We got a real klansman here.

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southern angler:

Shocking tape of Obama's grandmother saying that she was present for Obamas birth in Kenya coming out in a couple days. This is going to be HUGE

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BOOMFAIL:

You do know that southern angler is just pretending to be a stupid, retarded, obnoxious redneck racist right?

Nobody could honestly be that closed minded to the facts and the real world.

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MNLatteLiberal:

not to change the subject, but did you guys see the Rocky Mountain CO poll on top of the page?
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/oct/24/rockycbs4-poll-obama-has-12-point-lead-state/
Republican poll, 500 ppl...pretty devastating to McCain. Independent movement to Obama is very telling. Wow.

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Lou-NH:

@Pazienza

Did you put on your tin foil hat yet? That site is laughable. It would be so refreshing if the McCain supporters would stick to real issues instead of looking for the "October suprise".

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Mister H.:

Southern Angler:

Give it up, already!

You look like an idiot!

THE LAWSUIT IS OVER!!!! IT WAS THROWN OUT!!! Why do you refuse to deny the facts?

MULTIPLE independent groups have verified his citizenship....even BUSH'S DEPARTMENT. And you are WRONG!!!

You need to stop listening to psychotics like Rush Limbaugh. Please....get some help!

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laguna_b:

@MNlatteliberal

I actually live in NorCal now, in the coastal mountains between San Jose and Santa Cruz....MUCH nicer in NorCal. I sold my house in Laguna a few years ago and swapped ocean views for mountains and redwoods....I chose my Laguna_b handle when I first started on the internet....you have a lot more courage than I to ride PCH. I gave it up in 75 when I got tired of all the cars whipping by...should check out my area which has 10s of 1000s of acres of open space preserve....something SoCal could never dream of with it's rightwingnut mentality to develop everything.

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southern angler:

I hope you guys are listening to the audio

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illinoisindie:

@MNlatteliberal

Yeah really where is boomshak... these mocking pretenders are getting annoying...

I miss Boomy...

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southern angler:

the lawsuit is not over

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kerrchdavis:

@southern angler:

"I hope you guys are listening to the audio"

Like I said, no one is going to poke through your crap.

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mysticlaker:

MCCAIN SURGE ALERT!

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has 51% of the vote among likely voters in two separate estimates based on Gallup's likely voter models, while John McCain's share of the vote is 43% to 44%; these results are based on interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

Obama has a seven percentage point, 51% to 44%, margin using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections for Oct. 22-24, and an eight-point, 51% to 43%, margin using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.

Barack Obama was off the campaign trail for two days as a result of a visit to his ailing grandmother in Hawaii, but returns to campaigning today in Nevada and New Mexico. John McCain has been campaigning continuously and will also be campaigning in New Mexico on Saturday. None of this has, apparently, made much difference in the standing of the two candidates in the minds of voters. Obama's margin over McCain is statistically significant, and continues to reflect a fairly stable Obama lead in the race for president, with Election Day now just 10 days away.

Obama's lead among registered voters is at nine points, 51% to 42%. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport

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Napoleon Complex:
____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Great news from Gallup...Obama up across the board!

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DecaturMark:

Southern:

What audio? You mean the Michael Savage one with Berg on? You mean the one that was on the day before the judge threw out the case? Is that the audio we all have to listen to? If it is old news that has been supplanted by new and more relevant news, then it is no longer news. Much the same as the Ashley Todd fiasco. You thought you had something there as well.

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Pat:

New Gallup:

Obama up in all three models
RV O51M42 +9

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kerrchdavis:

GALLUP

Registered: O-51 M-42 O+1
Likely (New): O-51 M-43 O+1
Likely (Trad.): O-51 M-44 O+2

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southern angler:

Won't you guys be embarrassed to hear this on the MSM. I thought you guys are self proclaimed political junkies, no you are subject to looking tardy.

____________________

laguna_b:

@southern angler

"Shocking tape of Obama's grandmother saying that she was present for Obamas birth in Kenya coming out in a couple days. "

1) If it exists why are they holding it back? Or is this like McCain saying he knows how to get Bin Laden but doesn't want to tell until elected.
2) If the poor woman should die, will you be accusing Obama of killing a witness (another mass conspiracy theory)
3) Even if you were right, his mother is a US citizen and that is all that is required to meet the test.
4) You guys have redifined dispair and grasping at straws.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

BOOMFAIL,
I have lived in Tucson. I have traveled all over the US in my many years on this planet. If angler is faking it, he is doing a great job. His grammatical skills in the only language he knows are a pretty good indication of that. If he is overacting, it's not by much. I have seen people like that, I have talked to people like that.

My very own parents and their friends share many of these views. My brother and I get their emails almost daily - chain letters filled with hate, ignorance and venom. These guys are REAL. I have seen too many of them.

zotz,
did you happen to notice that right after your post there is angler confirming what you say? i mean, boomshak-like timing, as kerrch pointed out. just rotten luck for the racists.

did any of you catch that canvassing story on 538 by any chance? door knocking in western PA (earlier this week) or calling in NC today: "yeah, we are voting for the ni***r". So very telling. Racism has become a luxury, Nate writes, that people in this economy simply cannot afford. If you have a chance, look it up on 538. Great read and it's short. :)

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johncoz:

Gap widens in Gallup in all three models :-)

____________________

Stonecreek:

Wow! Check out this website:

www.southernangler.org/sexwithgoat

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southern angler:

laguna First low down you look dumb. I'm talking about his grandmother in Kenya. Please hold all of your question until you listen to the audio....

http://www.talkradionetwork.com/premiumstream?dispid=304&headerDest=L3BnL2pzcC9tZWRpYS9mbGFzaHdlbGNvbWUuanNwP3BpZD0zNDI2JnBsYXlsaXN0PXRydWUmY2hhcnR0eXBlPWNoYXJ0JmNoYXJ0SUQ9MzA0JnBsYXlsaXN0U2l6ZT0xMA==

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kerrchdavis:

@southern angler

Like I said, no one is going to poke through your crap.

____________________

jonny87:

nice work gallup.

notice the early voting numbers now 33% have or intend on voting early compared to only 30% a few days ago. with obama riding high its a great time to be bagging votes.

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ricbrig:

Looking t gallup website only 18% of peopple intend to early vote, any comment on that (by constructive people no trollers )

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laguna_b:

@southern angler

Mother: American Citizen - test met for US citizen, end of story.

____________________

Thatcher:

@everyone with a brain (i.e. not rightwing tinfoil types)

I missed something - what happened to Boomshak?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

laguna_b

I ride here in MN in the summer, but it's only 3-4 months long. Let me tell you, I LOVED PCH with its bike lane between Laguna Beach and past Huntington. It is a luxury compared to our MN roads. People are AWARE of the riders. And the surface is a dream. We have 7-8 months of ice and snow destroying the pavement, so after 3000 miles between my titanium bianchi and carbon softride, by this time of year I am hurting.
I biked Napa Valley in '83 when I was too young and stupid to truly appreciate it :)

____________________

johncoz:

"Barack Obama has 51% of the vote among likely voters in both of Gallup’s likely voter models, while John McCain’s share of the vote is 43% to 44%; these results are based on interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking."

____________________

laguna_b:

as alankeyestheasshole would say BAM!!!!!! Obama crossed RCP weighted poll average of EIGTH (8) Percent%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

____________________

southern angler:

latte
Thanks for the grammar lesson. I studied electircal engineering at Purdue. I'm not a great writer, thats doesn't make me stupid by any means. Anyway everything you say is a total bore. So whatever.

____________________

Thatcher:

@everyone with a brain (i.e. not rightwing tinfoil types)

I missed something - what happened to Boomshak?

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

Obama and McCain are Two of the Best-Liked Candidates in Recent History:

Great article on Gallup. I'm a big fan of both Obama and McCain. The problem is that McCain is stuck with a really dumb party and he's surrounded himself with Karl Rove acolytes. Honestly, if it were anyone other than McCain, Obama would be leading by +15 points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111439/Obama-McCain-Two-BestLiked-Candidates.aspx

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Thatcher:

"@everyone with a brain (i.e. not rightwing tinfoil types)
I missed something - what happened to Boomshak?"

Just a thought, but maybe if we all asked kerrchdavis nicely, he'd bring him back?! :))))))

PRETTY PLEASE?
LMAO.

Kerrch, you cannot joke with us about stuff like that. We take our humor VERY SERIOUSLY here. (and sorry about setting you up like that.) (no, i am not! lol)

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

boomshak has been arrested in Honolulu for carving an O in his face and saying Obama himself did it. Police were suspicious when it turns out Obama had left hours earlier and was already on the campaign trail.

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@Thatcher:

He's on the phone desperately trying to get someone from Israel to start dropping bombs on Iran.

____________________

laguna_b:

@MNlatteliberal

I do understand having had close friends from MN. Anold friend of many many years, now in 50s took to improve his health by biking and yearly bikes from the GG Bridge to Santa Barbara in 3 days!

A foremr friend from MN living here and I used to mountain bike the coastal foothills in February in shorts and t's to stay COOL....he commented that this was not something one does in Mn.

____________________

hou04:

RealClearPolitics (RCP) just added Obama's Gallup numbers for today. Before they added it, his average lead was 7.9

So, instead of adding 2 points today (cause he gained one point each on both LV models), the only added 1 point.

Just anothe example how they lean to the right.

____________________

johncoz:

RCP

National average 8%

Intrade 86.5

CO +6.5
Ohio +6.1
Virginia +7

Game Over (almost)

____________________

blakec:

"I studied electircal engineering at Purdue. "

Did you major in slanting facts or tinfoil hat construction? I hear the self delusion course is divine...just divine.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

btw and fwiw dept,
I've been flipping between MSNBC, CNN and even Comedy Central, and Tinlenberg ads against Bachmann are EVERYWHERE. He is saturating the Twin Cities channels with the 1.5 mil he raised thanks to ppl like you guys here. And he is using it well: the ads superimpose her statements on Hardball with Powell's and followed up by El's record. Right on!

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

"I studied electircal engineering at Purdue. "

I seem to remember someone recently who attended Texas A&M. Turns out she wasn't very sane either. Turns out she likes to make up stuff.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@ricbrig:
"Looking t gallup website only 18% of peopple intend to early vote, any comment on that (by constructive people no trollers )"

13% have already voted + 18% intend to vote early = 31% early voters.

____________________

thoughtful:

@johncoz

Almost but not quite! 10 days even with the early voting is a long time.

Is there another twist or 2?

____________________

laguna_b:

To my astonishment, I met a guy a couple months ago who goes to Stanford and believes that the earth is making oil faster than we use it.....talk about intelligent but stupid.

____________________

PA-John:

Wow. Southern Angler is ridiculous. It must be difficult going through life wearing a tin foil hat. It's good to know that posting absurd theories on Pollster.com is keeping him at home and away from the rest of society. Please. Seek. Help.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@southern angler,
it's not WHAT you studied, but HOW WELL.

See, Ms Palin studied communications and broadcasting. Just not very well.

As to me being boring, well, I save my best entertainment for boomshak. And for the Brittney Spears fan club site. Here I am dealing with nerds and wackos, to paraphrase boom.

Hope that explains why I have to dumb down to you.

____________________

laguna_b:

@MNlatteliberal

We havea few Rightwingnuts here in California that I would dearly love to see get Bachman's fate.....right on! I will celebrate her going down on Nov. 4th with a toast you the fine PATRIOTIC people of Mn.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

It's interesting that this SouthernAngler character should bring up college. Warning bells should be ringing at GOP headquarters about the fact that the youth in the South (yes, including evangelicals) are backing Obama heavily. The future doesn't look bright for Republicans...NOR SHOULD IT!

____________________

thoughtful:

Pollster.com National Average 9.0!

____________________

ricbrig:

Thanks Decatur I thought the 18% already included those who already voted!
I'm sure somebody knows this website already but it looks promising (and much better than 2004):
http://www.earlyvoting.net/blog/

____________________

johncoz:

@thoughtful:
"Is there another twist or 2?"

Really interesting question. Yesterday the McCain crowd were adamant they were going to stick to the "two Joes" line (which at least is politically credible, whatever one might think about the content).

But it wouldn't surprise me if there is lobbying for another desperation move.

McCain is on MTP tomorrow morning. We'll see if he is prepared to go down with his dignity intact or has caved in to the feral mice running his campaign.

____________________

mysticlaker:

I miss boom also...

____________________

laguna_b:

Why do we never see Palin on MTP???? I would LOVE to see that! She draws crowds alright....to laugh.

____________________

abraxaf:

It's pretty awesome that Obama has singlehandedly turned the right-wing commentariat into a bunch of crazed conspiracy-mongers muttering under their breath. Should only be a matter of time before they're claiming that Obama was directly tied to 9/11. Go to National Review Online, for example, right now, and count the number of tin-foil posts versus posts that are actually about political policy. It's something like 5 to 1.

____________________

blakec:

Obama has a seven percentage point, 51% to 44%, margin using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections for Oct. 22-24, and an eight-point, 51% to 43%, margin using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.

____________________

Steve_OH:

@southern angler:

You're sounding more and more like a parrot.

Rather than repeating the same thing over and over, wouldn't it be more interesting to think of something original to say? Maybe you can offer your thoughts regarding the question of how this can be an "October surprise" when it's exactly the same thing that has been floating around for at least three months, with no traction whatsoever?

____________________

blakec:

The "October surprise" to the right wing is that no one is buying the same ol bs they've been spreading for months and it's already October. They are damn surprised that America has woken up and realized they are just lying all the time.

____________________

abraxaf:

southern angler, can you also give us an update on when the Michelle Obama "whitey" tape is scheduled to hit? It's my most anticipated movie of the fall!

____________________

thoughtful:

@johncoz

Well they have tried all the negatives.

What has McCain got on the positive? A plea for unity, one America, rebuild America's greatness - steal Obama's half hour line?

I can't see McCain doing anything other that clinging to I am "America's fighter" line.

Is he going to justify the Ayer's smear on Meet again. Or re-justify the economy is fundamentally strong.

Tell us what a strong leader Palin is?

You know Tim R would have gone right after McCain.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ MNLatteLiberal:

The sad thing is that Bachmann is your average Republican. These people (yes...I said these people) claim to be all about Christian values yet the way they gleefully engage in hate-mongering just turns my stomach. And doesn't one of the commandments state: Thou shalt not bear false witness? Yet we've seen them lie constantly without any shame. These guys represent the ugly underbelly of America and I can't wait to show them the door.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Southern Angler

Hey man, I'll have to take your word on that. Let me ask you, "Do you own any guns?", and "Where exactly are you from?" I'm sure those CIA dudes are going to want to talk to you. Hey, don't worry when you see the big vans roll up in front of your place. It's just the MSM coming with all their cameras and stuff. You're not scared are you? Yeah, don't get scared cause I tell you they're going to be busting down your door to get an interview. Hey man, you might even get on Savage's show. Take it easy. If we don't hear from you on this site anymore, we'll know you made it big time. Take it easy man.

____________________

johncoz:

@laguna_b:
"Why do we never see Palin on MTP?"

That's an important point for those lunatics who are having wet dreams about her heading the ticket in 2012.

You can't get through the primaries, let alone the general election without that kind of press exposure. If the GOP is reduced to a far right southern rump and push for Palin, it will be a fascinating spectacle.

____________________

DecaturMark:

The 5 stages of Grief:

1-Denial
2-Anger
3-Bargaining
4-Depression
5-Acceptance

I think that Boomshak is on stage 4 (that is why he is no where to be found) and Southern Angler is still on stage 2 going on stage 3.

____________________

zigmeister:

southern angler is desperate! Makes my day! :-)

____________________

Thatcher:

Something for everyone to think about:

During the entire month of October 2004 - Bush was never over 49.5 and Kerry was never below 43.5 on RCP's averages

However, in October 2008 - Obama has never been below 48.8 and McCain has never been above 44.1

Also - in 2004 the trend from October 1 until election day was definitely a tightening trend. But it is very obvious the trend in 2008 is one of expanding the lead from October 1.

And Republicans say Obama can't close?????

____________________

laguna_b:

@johncoz

Remember how Quayle aka "wet head" did when he took on the primaries?

____________________

Great American:

Claims about Obama's birth certificate being fake are bogus. Check out factcheck.org. This is an old charge. Fact check has physically examined the original.

www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/has_obamas_birth_certificate_been_disclosed.html

____________________

abraxaf:

boomshak, unlike john mccain, is a true maverick -- he's actually gone all the from stage 1 to stage 4 or 5 and then back to stage 1 several times.

____________________

thoughtful:

It is totally crazy the the McCain Campaign wouldn't let Palin out on these shows, unless she was that crazy of pick in the first place.

OK she has been in place for what 6 or 7 weeks. These guys have to be real stupid, or she is or both.

How little politically or otherwise McCain shares with his Veep is about zero, we know he likes her ass though!

____________________

fed:

OCTOBER SURPRISE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AP INVESTIGATION: Palin pipeline terms curbed bids

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081025/ap_on_el_pr/palin_pipeline

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@fed

I love your style man. You're never overly verbose, just right on.

Nice.

____________________

abraxaf:

Great American, factcheck.org is funded by the Annenberg Foundation. Bill Ayers served on the board of the Annenberg Challenge. Coincidence? And a friend of a friend told me that Ayers personally does all the research and writing that appears on the site, and is paid 2 million in cash by Obama for it every month in laundered money which comes from the revenues of Tony Rezko's secret underground sex slavery ring. Nice try though.

____________________

laguna_b:

@fed

I think Palin is clearly stupid AND ignorant.She has no real education and it shows. It owuld be MORE obvious if we had not had 8 years of BUSH to lower expectations.

____________________

Terranus:

@NextAmericanChapter:

Right, I really like McCain and Obama, and I really didn't care who wins until McCain picked Palin. Many people said, with McCain and Obama, it can only get better after Bush, no matter who wins.
But then, Palin appeared. Worse than Bush...that made many moderates like me hoping Obama wins.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ abraxaf:

You're right about NRO's Corner. Those guys have absolutely lost it especially since moderate Republicans endorsed Obama. The other day they were trying to make an issue about Obama sneezing!!! They are now waging war on other conservatives who dared to criticize their darling Caribou Barbie (Parker, Noonan and Brooks).

It's almost entertaining to watch them implode. I say almost because these jokers support the policies that have left 4000 dead in Iraq, 200000 jobless just this year and the greatest fiscal deficit in our nation's history. I honestly think that they are deranged.

____________________

fed:

I want to see Hannity spin this one lol. Thanks OneAngryDwarf

____________________

thoughtful:

You know I watch FOX every night and can only confirm that basically most of their presenters and pundits are deranged.

____________________

laguna_b:

McCain and his BOLD strokes....Palin especially...I can just see him in office, deciding to make a pre-emptive strike on Russia...they will never expect it...then we are king of the world! Bill Krystol would have an orgasm. (Really scarey to watch)

____________________

Basil:

@Next

Not to take anything away from your point, but US policies have left at least 100,000 dead in Iraq. Maybe many, many more.

And at least three injured for each death.

Obama Tsunami!

____________________

DecaturMark:

I, too am enjoying the Right eat their own. This election will set the Republican Party back a bit. But if the Democrats try to over reach, the Republicans can come right back. I know the Dem's foreign policies will be good for the US. But we need to have good fiscal policies that will help all of America recover. So it is important that we hold our Democratic Representatives to a higher standard.

____________________

straight talk:

LANDSLIDE ALERT! THRERE IS A NARRATIVE THAT IS BUILDING FOR PALIN AND THAT STORY THAT BROKE THIS MORNING BY POLITICO THAT BASICALLY HER STAFF AND THE BUSH/McCAIN CAMP CAN'T GET ALONG IS SHOWING THAT THESE REPUBLICANS ARE SEEING BAD INTERNAL POLLING IN THE CAMP! O BY THE WAY OBAMA IS GOING TO DO TO MORE HEADLINE GRABBING EVENTS NEXT WEEK! HE HAS THE 30 MIN PRIMETIME ADDRESS AND HE WILL BE DOING AN EXCLUSIVE APPEARANCE AT A RALLY WITH BILL CLINTON!THE LATTER WILL DRIVE THE POLLS, BECAUSE BELIEVE OR NOT McCAIN IS STILL GETTING THE PUMA VOTE RIGHT NOW! OBAMA HITS 10+ NATIONALLY AND BREAKS OPEN A LEAD IN FLORIDA! LandSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@fed

No thank you, you've made my weekend. Nothing makes me happier that bad news for the moron's on the right.

Now if we could just get a few more polls out of MN-06 that show Bachmann down by double digits, a few more polls out of VA, PA, OH and FL that show Obama with double digits, then life would be perfect.

____________________

laguna_b:

@DecaturMark

This is VERY true because if the Dems screw up, we have no more choices except to leave.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

How damaging is this pipeline business? It's seems like there would have to be someone who benefitted. The 'how' of how they benefitted has to be really easy to understand. With this type of investigation, it would have to move quickly to the point that an investigation is started to have an impact. Has it been picked up by any of the networks?

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

My statement should have read "With this type of story, it would have to move quickly to the point that an investigation is started to have an impact".

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand:

@angler

No one is listening to your whackaloon bat**** crazy stories. Seriously, if you're clinging to this birth certificate thing, you are really desperate.

____________________

southern angler:

This is getting alot of traction....now on talk radio! MSM next?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Glyla5R7B8&feature=iv&annotation_id=event_587947


____________________

laguna_b:

@oneangrydwarf

Perfect is that Obama makes another speech of the quality of his rascism speech, right after he is elected, but on the economy, trust, pulling together and being THE nation making the MOST alternative energy by 2012 which will drive our rebirth......and the markets break loose and start thier charge to 20k!

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Well I've been hearing all the great comedy shows on FoxRadio. These comedians like Rush, Hannity - man they are FUNNY! XD

I was struck funny how on Larry King; SNL was brought up and the showed the McCain/Palin/Bush skit. The conservative analyst/talking head 'Bev something or other' (wears glasses and looks like the Wicked Witch from Oz). Anyway, she was complaining how SNL should be making fun of Obama as well, equally.

Equally?? See even Cons want the 'Fairness Doctrine' back! LMAO!!

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

You talk about traction like we're at a NASCAR event.

This is what we're talking about all weekend:

Ashley Todd
$150,000
Troopergate
Pipeline
Fighting in the McCain camp
Good poll numbers for Obama

All weekend. Ain't it grand.

____________________

laguna_b:

@southern angler
>>This is getting alot of traction....now on talk radio! MSM next?

Along with martians spotted in the Obama camp? Wow, traction with whacko talk radio....that IS the definition of credibility!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas

Just a little more rubble on the pile of ruins that is the McCain/Palin campaign. She's supposedly breaking out now and trying to set herself up for a 2012 run.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14929_Page2.html

I'm hoping this is the thing that gets the "Shrilla" back to Wasilla permanently. Governor Palin has no place in American politics and it would be really great if she would just fade into obscurity.

I don't think she can actively do more damage to the McCain campaign than she is already do, but this might finish her personal political ambitions on the national stage.

Good news for "real" Americans everywhere.

____________________

southern angler:

Phil Berg is the Clinton's hitman.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Bill Clinton to campaign w/ Obama in Florida on Wednesday...Wow. Obama has run the best strategic campaign in history.

I'm wondering if Bill will appear w/ Obama in Ohio.

____________________

southern angler:

Phil Berg just got Hilary the DNC Nomination. Will you guys still vote for her?

____________________

Basil:

Angler,

What about the height limits on presidential candidates? Isn't Obama too tall? Or too smart? Or too... BLACK?

"Grand Wisdon" is a Klan rank, like Grand Dragon, Klaxon, Kleegle, or Kleron. "Grand Wisdon" puts Angler on a level between "Kleenex" and "Klepto". It's really important.

I thought Angler mentioned a "husband" at one time, suggesting she's a woman (if she wants to survive in NC or wherever).

____________________

laguna_b:

@Blueintexas

I watched Bill Maher the other night complaining that while comedy was booming under Bush, Obama was going to cause a comedic depression going forward.....nothing to joke about, no stupid statements, ideas, contradictions etc. Face it, when you have material like Palin, where you don't even have to write your own lines!, why look further???

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@BlueInTexas

The conservative analyst/talking head 'Bev something or other' (wears glasses and looks like the Wicked Witch from Oz)'

Bay Buchanan . . . That's Pat Buchanan's little sister.

Surprisingly, she's a Mormon. She loves all religious zealots. Joking about Palin is like making a mockery of God's will as she sees it.

It doesn't matter to her that the bring the guy out in black face to play the role of Obama. Any criticism of Palin is out of bounds.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Oh good, the Southern Fondler is back... Fantastic news for cockroaches everywhere.

I wondered who our troll de juer was going to be now that boomshak has bailed. Good to know that there is always another moron ready and willing to step up and fill the anti-intellectual void.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ thoughtful:

The only class act at Fox is Sheppard Smith (although I also personally like O'Reilly...it's an Irish thing).

The rest of them are so far gone that its hilarious to watch them bash Obama all day to no avail. It hilarious because after all their efforts to smear Obama, he still has the highest favorability rating of any presidential candidate in recent history. I bet they look at the polls everyday and scream to the top of their lungs "What's going on?"

____________________

Jimbo77:

NextAmericanChapter:
The amazing thing is that there are a couple of million nutjobs like Boom and this SouthernAngler doucebag who tune in to Limbaugh and Hannity everyday.

Not to worry though, Colin Powell spoke the truth when he said that the Republican party is becoming too narrow. They've alienated independents, Blacks, Latinos, Jews and women. Now even moderate Republicans are switching to Obama. And with Sarah Palin as "the future" of the Republican party, the GOP is in its last throes. Good riddance to you creationist, global-warming denying, hate-mongering, anti-intellectual freaks.

Posted on October 25, 2008 12:50 PM

Pretty interesting you say that repbulicans are narrow minded and then go on to insult the 60 million evangelical christians in america. How open minded of you. This from a guy that Im sure dosent know the difference between MICRO and MACRO evolution. Heres a hint ones observable science and one is a fairytale.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Yeah, the Republicans are going to go out into the winderness for a few years. But be aware that they will come back. My big concern is of Newt. He saw that the Republicans were up against it this time around and decided not to run. But he has been very conspicuous on TV this election cycle. He has a plan to run in 2012. (He needs an Obama win to help his cause, btw) He has been gauging how the right is reacting to Palin and how the indies are moving to Obama. Mark my words, he will be a factor in 2012, despite his lack of family values.

____________________

abraxaf:

Newt is definitely going to run in 2012, I'd bet on it. I don't think people find him likable enough for him ever become president though -- or even get the nomination.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

4 years from now it's going to be a battle between Hukabee and Romney and Huckabee is going to win.

____________________

oicu:

@southern angler:

Conspiracy theorists are kooks. That include Berg and you.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Jimbo77

Oh how sweet, you've read that ID talking points. What next are you going to dazzle us with your fuzzy logic on the hoax that was Galileo?

I'm sure you can find a Flat Earth Society convention somewhere, please go there now.

Pathetic...

____________________

southern angler:
____________________

TuftsPat:

These 2012 names are scary. Palin...Huckabee...Romney...

Is it too early to say "4 more years"?

____________________

DecaturMark:

abraxaf:
"Newt is definitely going to run in 2012, I'd bet on it. I don't think people find him likable enough for him ever become president though -- or even get the nomination."

Since when did the republicans nominate someone likable to the US?

____________________

Jimbo77:

Whats up with all you Dems and the Rush bashing? If our movement is so defeated why bring up the "Fairness doctrine". Why not just give Olberman a radio show and then he would certainly have more than El Rushbos 20 million listeners. Oh whats that the savior of Msnbc has hardly no one watching him on TV so why would any one listen to him on the radio.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@southern angler

Is there a van in front of your house? I'd check it out dude. You never know.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

For what it's worth - I have no problem with creationists. Just leave it in church. Same with evolution - leave it in school.

See, I have the firm belief that people will CHOOSE what they want to believe in. So much for Land of the Free, eh?

____________________

TuftsPat:

Oh no, southern angler, you once against posted a propaganda video of a bitter clinton supporter smearing obama after FactCheck and other independent sources already dispelled this rumor. Please, oh mighty southern angler, show us mere mortals mercy!

____________________

jonny87:

@Indiana4Obama

i thought it may have been better to do it on a different day from his 30 min ad. anyway im sure they know what there doing though.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Huckabee is too much like Palin (too Religious Right) and Romney is not trusted by that same right. Romney could do well with a Palin as VP, but he has to win the nomination first. I believe that Newt has positioned himself for that place. BTW, Newt would be the worst thing for this country, very uncompromising.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Jimbo77

Please do a little homework before posting your drivel again.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/10/countdown-beats-oreilly-f_n_106298.html

That took me 2.5 seconds to find using this tool called a "search engine." Just because it comes flying out of someones pie hole doesn't make it the "gospel" truth.

Verify, analyse, then post. Better yet since I'm pretty certain you can't do any of those things, just don't post.

____________________

TuftsPat:
____________________

johncoz:

Lunatic Alert

Jimbo77:
"Pretty interesting you say that repbulicans are narrow minded and then go on to insult the 60 million evangelical christians in america. How open minded of you. This from a guy that Im sure dosent know the difference between MICRO and MACRO evolution. Heres a hint ones observable science and one is a fairytale."

I've been waiting for the Walking with Dinosaurs crowd to make a showing here :-)

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@johncoz

I've been wondering if that "Walking with Dinosaurs" crowd is an American phenomenon or is this kind of stupidity globally endorsed.

____________________

abraxaf:

LOL, you listen to Savage

____________________

WhereisMitt:

DecaturMark,

Palin as Romney's VP? I certainly hope not. I'm hoping she slithers back to Alaska never to be heard from again. Palin is too divisive; there are pro-Palin and anti-Palin factions developing within the Republican party that will only grow more stark after the election. A divided party is a weak party.

____________________

Basil:

I love the idea that Obama would fly to Hawaii so he could personally supervise some kind of birth certificate chicanery. So discreet! Maybe he's just there to sign his birth certificate so it will look more real.

Or could it be he's going there to be reborn? He could be screaming primally right now after crawling out of a long tube. Then some gigantic Hawaiian guy can hold him upside down by the feet to clear Obama's lungs.

Maybe just Born Again? If the Bible is literally true that would be an option.

I forgot. Those options would make him the world's smartest newborn but disqualify him on age. Dang!

So what the hell is Obama doing in Hawaii? Who loves their grandmother that much?

How about............OBAMA!

Incidentally DecaturMark, I was born at Emory Hospital--unless my mom lied and I was born in Africa. :-)


____________________

DecaturMark:

Southern:

Go out on your front porch, grab a cold Bud from the refrigerator that you have out there, sit on your porch swing, take a swig, look at the 7 cars you have on your front lawn (six of which are on cinderblocks) and keep dreaming that McCain will win this election.

____________________

redmalamute:

As an attorney, I checked the docket sheet on this so-called case. I knew it was not true, but wanted to respond after reviewing it myself. The court has not ruled against Obama in any way, shape or form. There is no order granting anyting in the Plaintiff's favor. In fact, the Court denied Berg's Motion for a TRO (which has one prong of the four part test is likelihood of success on the merits). There is no order regarding him to produce anything. The following are taken directly from the docket sheet:

ORDER THAT UPON CONSIDERATION OF PLAINITFF'S MOTION FOR TEMPORARY RESTRAINING ORDER (DOC. NO. 2) AND AFTER HAVING A HEARING IN OPEN COURT IT IS ORDERED THAT THE MOTION IS DENIED. SIGNED BY HONORABLE R. BARCLAY SURRICK ON 8/22/08. 8/22/08 ENTERED AND COPIES FAXED FROM CHAMBERS. (jpd) (Entered: 08/22/2008)

MOTION to Dismiss for Lack of Jurisdiction filed by THE FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION.Memorandum. (Attachments: # Memorandum of Law)(STREETER, BENJAMIN) (Entered: 10/21/2008)

There is no merit to this lawsuit. I could sue to say I owned the Moon (and I am sure that someone actually did so once), but it doesn't make it true. The Court will dismiss the case soon. However, it just takes a while for the legal process to go through (i.e., his right to be heard no matter how crazy he is). Go to snoops to fine out the scoop on the birthcertificate. I would say factcheck to, but GOP now trying to claim that is in Obama's pocket too).

p.s If you haven't gone to this cite, do so. It is so funny. And it will be updated each day until election. Just click around the room and see what happens.

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

____________________

Jimbo77:

OneAngryDwarf:
@Jimbo77

Oh how sweet, you've read that ID talking points. What next are you going to dazzle us with your fuzzy logic on the hoax that was Galileo?

I'm sure you can find a Flat Earth Society convention somewhere, please go there now.

Pathetic...

Posted on

Why am I pathetic? Just wondering. I dont think I have any problems with galileo. The fact that there are orbits is a observable and testable fact. In fact you could call it science.

On the other hand how exactly did the first cell form? Have we ever observed Darwinian evolution? Doesnt life in all of its forms bare the mark of design?

By the way I dont think your pathetic just missguided. Dont be so closed minded as to think that anything that questions Darwin must be thrown out. Be curious and dont be a sheep.

____________________

Lou-NH:

@ricbrig

Thanks for the link. Something I found very interesting in the distribution by age/party id. The dems in the 18 to 30 yo range hold at least a 3:1 advantage which is exactly what has caused many pollsters consern with respect to the LV model. The AA vote is anticipated but the young vote is turning out. I have been waiting to see this evidenced through an objective source.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Now Southern Anger is just plain spamming...

Just accept the fact that you're acting like a racist - we have. It's okay SA, someone of color was gonna be President eventually. Now go and jump in a bass lake and cool off, ok?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Isn't there some correlary between where someone gets their RW talking points and their IQ?

RW Journalist who report for the Washington Times: Talking Points IQ = 100

Anyone who watches Fox News and thinks it is fair and balance: IQ = 80

RW Journalists who read Drudge Report, Redstate.com or Free Republic IQ = 60

RW Talk Radio IQ = -40

____________________

TuftsPat:

Palin-Huckabee 2012 would be a dangerous ticket for so many reasons and in so many ways.

____________________

southern angler:

That sounds beautiful mark, houwever you are a man of limited vison.

____________________

Lou-NH:

@ricbrig

Thanks for the link. Something I found very interesting in the distribution by age/party id. The dems in the 18 to 30 yo range hold at least a 3:1 advantage which is exactly what has caused many pollsters concern with respect to the LV model. The AA vote is anticipated but the young vote is turning out. I have been waiting to see this evidenced through an objective source.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Hey Basil

I was born at Emory as well in 1960. I eventually graduated from the place in 1983!!

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Jimbo77:

I lost my open-mindedness several years ago...guilty as charged! I'll explain once more just in case this doesn't sink in too well:
1) 4000 dead in a needless war
2) 200000 jobless just this year
3) middle-class in tatters
4) largest deficit in the nation's history
5) national debt so large it can't even fit the damn debt-clock in NY
6) international reputation down the toilet

Republicans like you like to lecture the rest of us about personal responsibility yet I've heard no Republican take responsibility for the afore-mentioned policy-borne debacles.

The most recent disgusting example of Republicans passing the buck is the blame they put ON THE POOR for the financial crisis. Last time I checked the poor did not securitize mortgages. Last time I checked the poor did not create unleveraged credit default swaps. Last time I checked the poor did not advise investment banks to operate at a 40:1 debt leverage ratio.

So save me the sanctimonious bullsh#t. I am mad at people like you, Jimbo77, who are apologists for the GOP. You know the GOP has f#cked up but all people like you can say is that Obama is a muslim communist...oooh....scary!!!

____________________

johncoz:

@dwarf,

It's direct line of descent is from the birth of American fundamentalism in the 1920s. Small pockets elsewhere, but nothing like the US. The Discovery Institute from time to time sends out a container load of DVDs to Britain or Australia for distribution to schools. But the response has universally been public outrage.

It's a really concern that public understanding of biological science in the US is on par with Turkey.

____________________

southern angler:

The only racist are abama supports. The blacks specifically.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

@southern dangler:

...and Latinos, and Whites, and some conservatives...

Sweetie, you might want to put out that burning cross, it's gonna spread to the lawn and you don't want that I'm sure...

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Jimbo77

I'd love to have an intelligent conversation about this, but lets face it. There is no intelligent conversation when it comes to Intelligent Design.

Circular logic and stupidity do not a scientific argument make. Just because you think that by making American children less intelligent by teaching them "dressed up" creationism, Christian Dominionist history, and other such nonsense does not mean it is a worthwhile endeavor.

I don't play Dog in the gaps... Please feel free to bother someone else, I'm not buying.

____________________

Kile Thomson:

all Obama supporters are racists

ROFL

____________________

abraxaf:

Whaddaya know, Basil and Mark. I lived in Decatur from the ages of about 3 to 10, and my Dad has worked at Emory for the past 20+ years.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@southern angler:
"That sounds beautiful mark, houwever you are a man of limited vison."

Limited vision? You are the one listening to Savage on the radio and taking it as Gospel. I have learned to take information and research it and filter out the folly from the truth. I do believe that Newt will run in 2012. I have been watching his political moves the past couple of years and see him as the republican's strongest candidate. If that is limited in vision, I would ask that you give me your long term vision of the Republican Party.

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

southern angler = Gregster from Charlotte. Same low IQ. Same inability to type when angry.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

BTW, I seriously think ANY ticket in the future that has Palin on it will be poison. After this debacle, she'd be lucky to be HALF as successful as Quayle was in his.

Huckabee MIGHT get the nod in 2012 but he'll be saddled with the 'evangelical' tag and I simply don't see the People going back that way yet.

Romney's got the best shot of the three. IF the economy doesn't improve by 2012 he'll have a legitimate shot.

Just playing 'Devil's Advocate' on this one...

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

This is what we're talking about all weekend:

Ashley Todd
$150,000
Troopergate
Pipeline
Fighting in the McCain camp
Good poll numbers for Obama

All weekend.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@southern

Alabama supporters are racist? Is that coz Nick Saban is a jerk?

____________________

ricbrig:

@LOU-NH

I also found this: ' However, as the graphs below show, African-Americans are currently voting early at almost half the rate of whites. This large percentage not only belies the conventional wisdom about who votes early, but is also well out of proportion to the population of black citizens in North Carolina. ' quite important. NC does not seem so impossible to reach from these data. (from: http://www.earlyvoting.net/blog/)

____________________

TuftsPat:

"The same people who believe in polls also believe in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy"- some lady from Florida on Fox News

Yes, because looking documented responses of thousands people who have been asked specific questions, and the following categorization of those results, is akin to believing a magical woman in a tutu flies into your room at night, takes your lost teeth, and then gives you money.

Of course.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@johncoz

Yeah if you caught Sarah Palin's speech yesterday on new funding for special needs children you can see that first hand.

Her understanding of basic biology is so limited that she didn't understand that we can use the genome of other species in our research to develop cures for human disease.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/261583

Makes me so proud to think that with someone like her in the WH we could undo all of that crazy "Enlightenment" thinking and really dig into some "Dark Ages" research and development.

____________________

AustRyan:

Don't you think that President isn't already pre-chosen by a secret elite and this vote is just a fraudulent game.? .. whoever may be the next president, he is masterplanned. We are witnessing the last days of America

____________________

laguna_b:

I bet the Republicans will put up a completely NEW face in 2012. Somewhere there is a rising star that lacks the baggage.....hopefully a qualified person. But barring a complete disaster for 4 years, Obama will take an easy 8.

____________________

Tzal:

redmalemute:

I read some of the papers too. Pretty hilarious stuff. It's nice to see so many mouthbreathers hanging their hats on Philip Berg's little lawsuit.

____________________

Lou-NH:

@ricbrig

If you take a R.O.M. on the 18 to 29 yo demographic it represents about 8.9% of the early vote in NC. I suspect the weekend will see these numbers rise but the splits are spot on.

____________________

TuftsPat:

any more polls for today?

____________________

TheCanadian:

Didn't Berg also try to get Bush tried for war crimes?

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@BlueInTexas

The Republicans base is comprised of mainly the evangelicals now. That's all that's left. Look in the polls at how many of the McCain supporters are self identified born again Christians. She'll live to fight another day because she's their poster child. I agree with you in that they'll face a challenge in rolling her out again. But hey, look at Biden. He's done it on our side. There's no way she can run in 2012. Her next shot is probably 2016. She's young enough to do it.

____________________

DecaturMark:

abraxaf:

Small world. Obviously, I don't live far from the University. Hence my name. I love the fact that we are a very democratic stronghold in a sea of the repubican red state of GA.

____________________

Jimbo77:

NextAmericanChapter:
@ Jimbo77:

I lost my open-mindedness several years ago...guilty as charged! I'll explain once more just in case this doesn't sink in too well:
1) 4000 dead in a needless war
2) 200000 jobless just this year
3) middle-class in tatters
4) largest deficit in the nation's history
5) national debt so large it can't even fit the damn debt-clock in NY
6) international reputation down the toilet

My view:
1: war sucks but is necessary. And we are winning.
2: The economy is entering a recession. The housing crisis has plenty of blame to share but if you want to point fingers most would have to go a DEMS.
3: The middle class is not in tatters. Let me know when people stop buying $2000 TVs and eating out 6 nights a week and then we can talk.
4&5: All government spends to much. Compare Obamas spending plans to MCcains. Both spend to much but Obama spends more.
6: Since we are so hated around the world why in the last 4 years have Germany,France,Italy and Canada elected their versions of the Republicans? (Britian is poised to as well.)

People who took out mortgages they couldnt aford to repay do deserve some blame. Banks that wrote mortgages that they new people couldnt repay deserve more blame. Government entities at the bequest of mostly Dem lawmakers who under wrote those mortgages deserve a ton of blame.

What do you think of Dodd and Franks role in all of this? I Promise I wont call you an appologist.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Look for them to try and draft someone who's completely unqualified. It wouldn't surprise me to see them pick someone like Gen. Patreas to go up against Mitt Romney. Palin might try in 2012. It would be Palin, Huckabee, Patreas, and Romney and Huckabee would come out on top.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@DecaturMark

I love Decatur!!! I've been there for business a number of times and it is a great little burb. I think I dropped a $100 at the TacoMac there after the Decatur beer festival last year.

Good Times...

____________________

zigmeister:

southern angler:

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

What a bore!

____________________

johncoz:

@dwarf,

The thing about the fruit flies in her speech made me think about the campaign. We all know she's as dumb as dog**** and is just reading what she's given.

But this first "policy speech" must have been vetted within an inch of its life by McCain "advisers". Don't they know anything? Are they really that stupid? Apparently, yes.

No wonder people like Colin Powell are appalled about what has happened to the party of Lincoln.

____________________

Uh....oh MAVERICKY.

NCHORAGE, Alaska – Gov. Sarah Palin's signature accomplishment — a contract to build a 1,715-mile pipeline to bring natural gas from Alaska to the Lower 48 — emerged from a flawed bidding process that narrowed the field to a company with ties to her administration, an Associated Press investigation shows.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081025/ap_on_el_pr/palin_pipeline

____________________

abraxaf:

As far as "new face" or "rising star" Republicans go, I've noticed that Indiana congressman Mike Pence is extremely popular with Republicans who follow politics heavily and is often mentioned as a potential future presidential candidate. I don't know much of anything about him though.

____________________

RussTC3:

North Dakota: Research 2000 for Daily Kos (D), 10/22-24 (no trend lines)
McCain 50
Obama 41

Bush won the state by 22 points in both 2000 and 2004.

____________________

abraxaf:

I

____________________

RussTC3:

Oops, I meant SOUTH Dakota.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@johncoz

Yeah it is getting bad. The Republican party runs around crowing about education all the time but they don't really believe in it.

Education is a mindset and if you are constantly demonizing the intellectuals (both inside and outside the party) and trying to roll back educational policies to the 19th century you probably have your education priorities out of step with the rest of the world.

Ignorance is only a virtue in Christian America. The rest of us would prefer to be smart.

____________________

abraxaf:

I heart Taco Mac and the Brick Store Pub.

____________________

Basil:

In Angler's defense (sort of), it's hard to make a rational decision about who's to blame for everything when you're already angry, not that bright to begin with, and your access to information is limited by your circumstances. Michael Savage, Limbaugh, etc. pander to the enraged.

It's a serious problem, and not made better by alcohol and pills. Just ask Rush himself.

Re Newt, I recall reading that his colleagues felt that it was unwise for him to meet with Bill Clinton alone because when he did, Newt always came away so charmed that he forgot why he went in the first place.

Newt's one of those bright guys who's just missing some very basic facts, like so many Wm. Buckley admirers.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Newt epitomizes all that is sacred to the Old Republican Party. He was the one that created the "contract for/on America." He has been positioning himself as the Reagan legacy. He is the one that most resonates with traditional Republicans.

@1angry

come and visit us anytime. we are a welcoming community!! I know that TacoMac well!!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@abraxaf

I can't get Abita Purple Haze here in AZ so I always look forward to going to Atlanta/Decatur so I can get my fix.

____________________

Jimbo77:

OneAngryDwarf:
@Jimbo77

I don't play Dog in the gaps... Please feel free to bother someone else, I'm not buying.

Posted on October 25, 2008 2:50 PM


You posted to me and I replied but if your afraid to answer a couple basic questions I would understand. I'll just get out a 9th grade Biology text and Im sure they can ansewer these basic questions. I mean we teach this to children as a fact they must know. Oh thats right anything that contradicts darwin cant be true.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

@jimbo77

1 - it helps if were fighting the right enemy. We never should have entered Iraq. Should've stuck it out in Afghanistan, caught Bin-Laden put his head in the Smithsonian; end of story. Nope - Bushie wants to 'finish what Poppy didn't' (don't even get me started on his 'daddy issues') now were stuck with this POS.

2 - I'd say we're ALL guilty: Right/Left; Wall Street - Main Street. The 'boom' we've had was on credit. The Bill now is not only due; but on 'FINAL NOTICE'.

3 - Actually people are cutting down on their spending ... you don't read the papers much do you? Why do you think the job cuts are coming still?? Oy.

4&5 - It's been noted that McCains will probably cost more over time than Obamas. Let's try to think long term for a change, eh?

6 - All it is that the Left has normally been in charge in most European countries; so now they move to the right. But even then, if you look at their policies even the 'European Republicans' are far more to the left that what is left of the GOP.

Anything else i can help you with]?

____________________

TuftsPat:

Wow, that South Dakota poll is just amazing. I have been incredibly hesitant to believe that North Dakota and Montana are seriously in play, but this poll really means a lot.

I think they need to do something in North Dakota. Not Obama, but maybe a Clinton (they have stopped in Kentucky and Nebraska)? Or Biden? Something though.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@DecaturMark

I used to have a friend who worked at Emory in their IT department. She hated it and moved on so we don't get to Decatur as often as we used to but next time I'm there I'll take you up on your offer.

mmmmmm Taco Mac...

____________________

boom&KipTinSUCK:

October 25, 2008
Obama Camp Sees Its Path To Victory

On a conference call with reporters yesterday, Obama field director Jon Carson, along with campaign manager David Plouffe, laid out the path to victory. "We really feel that in a number of these states, the election is going to come down to our ground organization," Carson said. "We have around 1.5 million active volunteers around the country."

"The most important barometer for us is our voter contact," Carson said. "We measure how many people we actually have a conversation with. We average about 400,000 contacts a day. This weekend alone we will hit over 1.2 million contacts."

Plouffe said the campaing feels "very strongly about" Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, four states that voted for Pres. Bush in 2004. On Florida, Nevada and Ohio, Plouffe said they "assume all three will end up being competitive and close."

"There are an enormous number of states where we feel we have an opportunity to flip them," Plouffe said. "Even in states like Georgia and North Dakota."

On the call, Carson also offered early voting numbers in key states, and later distributed them in a memo to reporters. Read the memo after the jump.

TO: Interested Parties
FR: Jon Carson, Obama-Biden Campaign Field Director
RE: State of the early vote
DA: October 24, 2008

According to information from Secretaries of State from all over the country, Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004 and new and sporadic voting Democrats are voting early at higher rates than new or sporadic voting Republicans.

Below is the data on early voting I provided on the conference call earlier this afternoon.

Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004:

North Carolina - 2008 to date
All Votes By Party Registration
DEM 520,064 56%
REP 254,515 27%
UNA 155,476 17%

North Carolina - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Votes By Party Registration
DEM 479,305 48%
REP 363,294 37%
UNA 149,632 15%

Nevada - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 107,122 53%
Repub 63,577 32%
Other 30,938 15%
Total 201,637

Nevada - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Votes By Party Registration
DEM 147,408 45%
REP 135,743 41%
OTHER 45,211 14%


Iowa - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 132,882 50%
Repub 76,689 29%
Other 53,787 20%

Iowa - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 185,115 48%
Repub 118,167 30%
Other 86,071 22%

New Mexico - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 84,123 56%
Repub 49,145 33%
Other 16,484 11%

New Mexico - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 178,216 50%
Repub 132,505 38%
Other 42,461 12%

Colorado - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 184,352 39%
Repub 181,424 38%
Other 110,284 23%

Colorado - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 307,244 34%
Repub 384,642 42%
Other 221,336 24%

Florida - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 650,363 43%
Repub 651,700 43%
Other 225,980 14%

Florida - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 1,056,986 42%
Repub 1,097,616 43%
Other 386,367 15%

____________________

political_junki:

McSame is still campaigning in IOWA, what a joke!

____________________

ashley:

IBD poll is out, with Obama showing a +0.4% increase from yesterday:

O - 45.8%
M - 41.9%

____________________

johncoz:

@Jimbo77:
"Oh thats right anything that contradicts darwin cant be true."

You and your ilk are a sad omen for the future of America.

You don't even understand the question, let alone the answer. Try this: replace the word "darwin" in your sentence with Copernicus or Newton or Einstein, and then say it out loud.

Now note that scientist don't hold the views of any of these people as a holy writ. The average graduate student today would have a better understanding of General Relativity than Einstein did when he formulated it in 1916. Ditto with with Darwin.

Science is not about revealed truth and sacred prophets. If that's want you want, go to church. If you want to engage in the quest to find out how the world works, go to a good university and open your mind.


____________________

NoMcSame:
____________________

TheCanadian:

IBD has shown McCain leading the 18-24 vote every day this week (maybe longer, I've only reviewed this weeks polls). For today's poll, they have McCain leading by 18 points in that age group. It's much more likely to be Obama by 18 (or much more). Adjusting for this would account for at least a 2-4 point gain in Obama's lead in this poll.

____________________

johncoz:

Tipp has been polling since 10/13. It has the unique distinction of its Obama support figure falling outside the standard deviation of all polls for each and every day.

It also asks cute questions like: "Are you ready for socialism?"

It's a sham, if not a scam to try to depress polling aggregates.

But because it has a reputation to protect (its main line of work is investment info polling), watch its numbers change between now and election day.

Shameful.

____________________

TheCanadian:

Considering that in 2004, 18-24 year olds made up 9.3% of voter turnout, changing the 18-24 distribution on IBD's poll from 18 points to McCain to 18 points to Obama would yield an additional 3.3% point lead for Obama in this poll, bringing his lead to 7.2 (closer to the other polls).

____________________

Jimbo77:

johncoz:

Darwinian evolution and observable evolution are two different things. One is a fact the other is atheistic religion not based on any science.

The point is that you all should stop insulting every one in america who belives in the bible. You guys have your point of view and I have the truth backed up by my own two eyes.

____________________

Viperlord:

Can some Republican please explain this? http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm

____________________

AlanSnipes:

I don't know why some people on this site try to respond to right wing posters.
In the first place, these are people who are incapable of discussing any issue because their minds do not accept facts. They believe things based on their ignorance and bigotry.
Even thought Senator Obama's birth certificate has long sine been valid, these people believe what they want because they are not capable of thinking any other way.
One can't have a serious discussion with people who obviously have said to themselves "My mind is made up, don't confuse me with facts"

Unfortunately, America is suffering because of the way these people vote. After this year, we won't have to put up with them for hopefully a long while and we can pass national health care, and do other worthwhile things that have been allowed to slide since the moron stole his way into the White House.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Jimbo77:

The amazing thing is that you seem to have convinced yourself of the stuff that you are posting in an effort to apologize for the GOP. I'll try to appeal to rational common sense one last time using the facts:

Your view:
1: war sucks but is necessary. And we are winning.
2: The economy is entering a recession. The housing crisis has plenty of blame to share but if you want to point fingers most would have to go a DEMS.
3: The middle class is not in tatters. Let me know when people stop buying $2000 TVs and eating out 6 nights a week and then we can talk.
4&5: All government spends to much. Compare Obamas spending plans to MCcains. Both spend to much but Obama spends more.
6: Since we are so hated around the world why in the last 4 years have Germany,France,Italy and Canada elected their versions of the Republicans? (Britian is poised to as well.)

People who took out mortgages they couldnt aford to repay do deserve some blame. Banks that wrote mortgages that they new people couldnt repay deserve more blame. Government entities at the bequest of mostly Dem lawmakers who under wrote those mortgages deserve a ton of blame.

Reality:
1) No WMDs in Iraq, no end in sight, $10 billion spent per month, heading towards $1 trillion spent fighting in Iraq. O yeah, and there's that small matter of Al Qaeida reconstituting itself in Afghanistan. Awesome.
2) The Republicans give tax cuts to companies that ship jobs overseas. No points for guessing what subsequently happens. Care to visit the rust belt in the industrial mid-west?
3) Median income of the middle-class has declined by $2000 over the last eight years. This is the first decade since the Depression that income has contracted for middle-class households (in spite of the fact that folks are working longer hours).
4 and 5) Obama's plan is pay-as-you-go. McCain would cut taxes for the WEALTHY whilst driving up the deficit. Yup, that's a tax increase for your kids. According to the non-partisan Brookings Tax Policy Center, McCain's negative impact on the deficit would be 30% worse than Obama (Please do yourself a favor and look it up).
6) If you think that 'conservative' in the UK and in Canada is ANYTHING like 'conservative' in the US, you really are delutional. There's a reason that 200,000 Berliners were cheering Obama over the summer...and I bet you're one of the ones that made fun of him.
As for your insistence of restricting the financial crisis to mortgage lenders and lendees, again you just do not want to face facts. Mortgage backed-securities would have been a viable idea IF AND ONLY IF their insurance (credit default swaps) had been collateralized...and yes, that includes sub-prime loans. The big boys in the finance industry screwed up so don't blame the poor for the collapse of investment banking in America as we know it.

The sad thing is that I could write a thesis on how bad the last eight years have been, but GOP apologists like you have their head in the sand and are not open to facts. I'll bet for you 'the fundamentals of our economy are strong!'

____________________

BrookLynda:

@southern angler:
"You will all see the ways of my grand wisdon soon."

Grand Imperial Wizard is more like it.

____________________

TheCenterIsOnTheLeft:

'First Time Caller, Long Time Listener'

I've been watching this site and all the great comments on here for months, but this is the first time I've decided to comment, I think guys like BOOMFAIL, MNLatteLiberal and kerrchdavis do a good enough job with some of these nutcases around here.

But, I really think this is the greatest thing in the world:

"Police said they doubted her story from the start, in part because the "B" on her face was backward."

LMFAO. She did it in front of a mirror!

____________________

Thatcher:

@Viperlord -

yeah, republican administrations suck for the economy and spending ... whereas Democrat Administrations have shown a history of more fiscally responsible spending of government money while seeing (for the most part) a better economy for the entire country (not just the select few).

____________________

TheCenterIsOnTheLeft:

"This is what we're talking about all weekend:

Ashley Todd
$150,000
Troopergate
Pipeline
Fighting in the McCain camp
Good poll numbers for Obama

All weekend. "

Don't you understand? That's all a part of the McCain surge or October Surprise or the 2008 Bin Laden video thing that guys like boom have been talking about!

Next, Bush is going to publically endorse Obama and McCain is going to be leading by Sunday. It's all in the internals at the Obama Camp. McCain/Palin are Mavericky and Obama/Biden and Panicky.

____________________

Steve_OH:

@Jimbo77:

"On the other hand how exactly did the first cell form?"

Vesicles enclosed in lipid bilayers (the basic structure of the simplest thing that looks like a cell) form spontaneously under the right conditions in aqueous solutions. The simplest archaea aren't a whole lot more sophisticated than that. Eukaryotic cells show clear evidence of organisms that have "engulfed" other organisms (see mitochondria).

"Have we ever observed Darwinian evolution?"

Yes, thousands upon thousands of examples of every stage of speciation are visible all around us. The hawthorn fly/apply fly speciation is one that has happened within the lifetime of our nation. Since this is way, way off topic here, I won't give you any more examples, but I assure you that there are literally tens of thousands.

"Doesnt life in all of its forms bare the mark of design?"

Only if Rube Goldberg were the designer. The machinery of life is just about the most illogical hodgepodge one could imagine. In the words of Theodosius Dobzhansky: "Nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution."

Since you brought up orbits, consider the following: If you look it up in any astronomical reference, you'll find that the orbital period of the (former) planet Pluto is about 248 years. But wait a minute! Pluto wasn't discovered until 1930! That's only 78 years ago! Talk about audacity! How can those astronomers claim that its orbital period is so long if they've never observed it?

So why haven't the evangelicals picked up on this blatant baseless extrapolation? Hint: It has nothing to do with the science. The only reason is that, unlike evolution, it doesn't conflict with existing dogma.

Back to polling....

____________________

orange24:

Wow, enough with the birth certificate already. Talk about desperation. Clearly you don't believe the half dozen or so fact-checking websites on the authenticity of the certificate. Forget the fact that not even Fox News or Shawn Hannity want a piece of this one - how about this. There are also online the birth announcements from Hawaii's two major daily newspapers at the time showing the birth of Barack Obama. Do you honestly believe that his parents were so certain that he would one day run for president of the United States that they bribed a hospital in Hawaii to submit a bogus birth announcement to the local newspapers? "Our son will one day run for president of america. Let us send a phony birth announcement to all newspapers in Hawaii". Do you really believe that? If you do, I'm afraid that you're past the point of any hope. You are simply too delusional and too filled with hate.

____________________

johncoz:

jimbo,

Science is not a "point of view". If it were we would have no confidence that planes wouldn't fall out of sky, or that antibiotics would stop bacterial infection, or even that this discussion board could exist.

Religion on the other hand, like sex, is a matter for consenting adults in private.

____________________

Jimbo77:

NextAmericanChapter:
The sad thing is that I could write a thesis on how bad the last eight years have been, but GOP apologists like you have their head in the sand and are not open to facts. I'll bet for you 'the fundamentals of our economy are strong!'

What economy in the world would you rather participate with? Seems like you want to go back to the carter years, those were bad years not just slow years.

Median income is down with the major factor holding down growth being health insurance premiums. Thats right Bush created high costs in health care. I got a great idea lets socialize medicine it works so great in Canada lets do it here. How will the Govnt hold down the increase in cost in medicine without rationing care as they do in all the other countries that have gone down this path.

Do your self a favor go to any northern border town hospital oncology center and see how many canaidans are there. You will realy like Obamas mandated health care system if you are on welfare or if you are and illegal immigrant.
Not so much when you get a system of cancer and are told to come in for your scann in 4 months.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Hey STUPID **** Souther Angler. Did ya hear the news today?

Pa. Judge Throws Out Obama Citizenship Suit

Saturday, October 25, 2008 11:33 AM

What conspiracy theory will excite you next? ROFL Ahh the uneducated. What would we do without you?

____________________

Viperlord:

More Republican bull****. http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/mythbusting-canadian-health-care-part-i

http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/mythbusting-canadian-healthcare-part-ii-debunking-free-marketeers

And Obama's plan isn't socialist. You could make a argument for Hillary's being socialist perhaps, but not Obama's.

____________________

Viperlord:


And on the economy: http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/L-carterreagan.htm

http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm

You can crawl back into your hole now.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Posted on Sat, Oct. 25, 2008


Judge rejects Montco lawyer's bid to have Obama removed from ballot

By MICHAEL HINKELMAN
Philadelphia Daily News

hinkelm@phillynews.com 215-854-2656
A federal judge in Philadelphia last night threw out a complaint by a Montgomery County lawyer who claimed that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was not qualified to be president and that his name should be removed from the Nov. 4 ballot.

Philip J. Berg alleged in a complaint filed in federal district court on Aug. 21 against Obama, the Democratic National Committee and the Federal Election Commission, that Obama was born in Mombasa, Kenya.

Berg claimed that the Democratic presidential standardbearer is not even an American citizen but a citizen of Indonesia and therefore ineligible to be president.

He alleged that if Obama was permitted to run for president and subsequently found to be ineligible, he and other voters would be disenfranchised.

U.S. District Judge R. Barclay Surrick had denied Berg's request for a temporary restraining order on Aug. 22 but had not ruled on the merits of the suit until yesterday.

Obama and the Democratic National Committee had asked Surrick to dismiss Berg's complaint in a court filing on Sept. 24.

They said that Berg's claims were "ridiculous" and "patently false," that Berg had "no standing" to challenge the qualifications of a candidate for president because he had not shown the requisite harm to himself.

Surrick agreed.

In a 34-page memorandum and opinion, the judge said Berg's allegations of harm were "too vague and too attenuated" to confer standing on him or any other voters.

Surrick ruled that Berg's attempts to use certain laws to gain standing to pursue his claim that Obama was not a natural-born citizen were "frivolous and not worthy of discussion."

The judge also said the harm Berg alleged did "not constitute an injury in fact" and Berg's arguments to the contrary "ventured into the unreasonable."

For example, Berg had claimed that Obama's nomination deprived citizens of voting for Sen. Hillary Clinton in November. (Berg backed Clinton in the primaries.)

Berg could not be reached for comment last night.

Obama was born in Honolulu on Aug. 4, 1961, and the campaign posted a document issued by Hawaii on its Web site, fight thesmears.com, confirming his birth there.

Berg said in court papers that the image was a forgery.

The nonpartisan Web site FactCheck.org examined the original document and said it was legitimate.

Further, a birth announcement in the Aug. 13, 1961, Honolulu Advertiser listed Obama's birth there on Aug. 4. *

____________________

johncoz:

Jimbo,
"How will the Govnt hold down the increase in cost in medicine without rationing care as they do in all the other countries that have gone down this path."

Reality check. OECD countries with univeral health care have better health outcomes, for a smaller proportion of GDP, than the United States.

____________________

Viperlord:

Sssh, you'll give the poor ickle Republicans headaches.

____________________

zotz:

Jimbo77-
They sat that a human is 98% the same as a chimpanzee.

I think that it is not fair to compare you to a chimpanzee. That is, not fair to the CHIMP!!!

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!

____________________

NW Patrick:

The survey of likely Colorado voters was conducted Tuesday through Thursday by Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, Va., the largest Republican polling firm in the country.

REPUBLICAN POLLSTER> OBAMA up 12 in Colorado:)

____________________

Kile Thomson:

BREAKING NEWS

Obama is not a human

he is an alien from mars

* ROFL *

____________________

Jimbo77:

Steve_OH:
@Jimbo77:

"On the other hand how exactly did the first cell form?"

Vesicles enclosed in lipid bilayers (the basic structure of the simplest thing that looks like a cell) form spontaneously under the right conditions in aqueous solutions. The simplest archaea aren't a whole lot more sophisticated than that. Eukaryotic cells show clear evidence of organisms that have "engulfed" other organisms (see mitochondria).

Cool lets make some. Oh whats that you cant. Huh you made it sound like something we have done, seen or tested. every cell needs numerous componets to make it viable.

"Have we ever observed Darwinian evolution?"

Yes, thousands upon thousands of examples of every stage of speciation are visible all around us. The hawthorn fly/apply fly speciation is one that has happened within the lifetime of our nation. Since this is way, way off topic here, I won't give you any more examples, but I assure you that there are literally tens of thousands.

Yes I agree thousands of examples of micro evolution. A big fat 0 examples of marco/darwinan evolution. Funny its almost like you are trying to fool people.

"Doesnt life in all of its forms bare the mark of design?"

Only if Rube Goldberg were the designer. The machinery of life is just about the most illogical hodgepodge one could imagine. In the words of Theodosius Dobzhansky: "Nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution."

I think it was Bill Gates(big right winger)who said that DNA was basicly a software program only far more advanced then anything we have come up with. POOR DESIGN

Since you brought up orbits, consider the following: If you look it up in any astronomical reference, you'll find that the orbital period of the (former) planet Pluto is about 248 years. But wait a minute! Pluto wasn't discovered until 1930! That's only 78 years ago! Talk about audacity! How can those astronomers claim that its orbital period is so long if they've never observed it?

So why haven't the evangelicals picked up on this blatant baseless extrapolation? Hint: It has nothing to do with the science. The only reason is that, unlike evolution, it doesn't conflict with existing dogma.

Come on. Same old crap if you dont except on faith Darwinian evolution you must not believe in Physics. Apples and Oranges. Trying to fool people again because you know the truth.

Back to polling.... I didnt start this only replied to you all.

____________________

Jimbo77:

johncoz:
Jimbo,
"How will the Govnt hold down the increase in cost in medicine without rationing care as they do in all the other countries that have gone down this path."

Reality check. OECD countries with univeral health care have better health outcomes, for a smaller proportion of GDP, than the United States.

Posted on October 25, 2008 4:34 PM

Sure ask a Canadian. Just so you know just because you say it doesnt make it true.

Cost is the problem not the care. So again how will the government control cost without rationing?

____________________

johncoz:

Hey jimbo,

The US ranks 45 in the CIA Factbook's table of life expectancy, yet it devotes the largest percentage of GDP to healthcare (at least 2% more than the OECD average).

Do you think the facts are trying to tell you something?

____________________

Kile Thomson:

is Jimbo77 Boom ??

____________________

TheCanadian:

Just so you know, the average spending per capita on healthcare in Canada is about half what it is in the US (both taxes and out of pocket), and Canadians life expectancy is almost 5 more years than Americans.

____________________

jonny87:

dems crack 40% on rasmussen affiliation

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Jimbo77:

"Do your self a favor go to any northern border town hospital oncology center and see how many canaidans are there. You will realy like Obamas mandated health care system if you are on welfare or if you are and illegal immigrant."


There you go again ignoring the facts.

- Where the hell were you when Obama spent months debating Hillary AGAINST mandating healthcare for adults? Obama is NOT going to mandate healthcare and he keeps on telling people like you this but again, your head is in the sand and you hear only what you want to hear. Furthermore, both Hillary and Obama are AGAINST a nationalized healthcare system like in Canada. Geez, it's like talking to a wall.

- No, I don't want to go back to the Carter years. I want to go back to the Clinton years. So does Obama. He keeps on saying this but...surprise...surprise, people like you choose to hear your own thing. Obama's tax structure is almost a carbon copy of Clinton's except for LOWER taxes for the middle class and LOWER capital gains tax.

- And as for those higher taxes for the wealthy, under Obama they'd still be LOWER than under Ronald Reagan. But I bet for you Reagan is a tax-policy god and Obama is the socialist.

You know, I'd respect you more if you just came out and said that you don't like Obama personally for whatever reason (big ears, poor bowling, cocky bugger...whatever your distaste). But don't invent policy positions for him that he hasn't proposed.

____________________

@Jimbo

Your argument is perfectly valid...

If it weren't for, you know, sensitive dependence on initial conditions.

It states that in any system, small fluctuations add up over time. That on a large enough scale, "statistical noise" makes for enormous discrepancies.

So, unless you believe that the Earth is 12,000 years old, (Or however old you crackpots think the Earth is) then macro evolution is is a statistical eventuality.


On another point, science doesn't say humans evolved from primates. It says we evolved from hominids. Early hominids would have looked very similar today's primates, but that doesn't mean that their genetic code was identical.

In fact, hominids and primates evolved over completely separate lines.

Hominids were simply men who were adapted to their own conditions, and changed as their surroundings changed.

What crackpot creationists fail to understand is that the notion that scientists believe humans evolved from primates, is an oversimplification and a fallacy.


P.S.
I'm not an atheist.

I'm a Christian who believes that evolution only explains the how, and not the why.

If evolution is correct, it doesn't mean that God doesn't exist.

Please, stop making us rational Christians look bad.


____________________

political_junki:

jonny87:
In FL early voting they seem to gaining ground:
Dem 44.3 Rep 40.9...

____________________

Steve_OH:

@Jimbo77:

"Cool lets make some. Oh whats that you cant. Huh you made it sound like something we have done, seen or tested. every cell needs numerous componets to make it viable."

You're aware that viruses have recently been synthesized completely from scratch, right? While not quite fully "alive," viruses do at least follow the same rules of biology. There are a lot of technological hurdles to overcome, but there is nothing in principle to prevent the same kind of synthesis of bacteria, etc., once we've learned more and developed the necessary techniques.

Of course, that won't satisfy you, since you're of the "I can't understand how it could possibly happen, therefore it can't" school.

"Yes I agree thousands of examples of micro evolution. A big fat 0 examples of marco/darwinan evolution. Funny its almost like you are trying to fool people."

Did you actually read what I wrote? I gave an example of speciation. That's the definition of macroevolution. When I said that there are tens of thousands of examples, I was speaking of examples of macroevolution (there are probably tens of millions of examples of microevolution).

"Come on. Same old crap if you dont except on faith Darwinian evolution you must not believe in Physics."

Well, I figured I only had at best a 50/50 chance of you understanding my point. Hint: That's not what I was saying at all.

____________________

Bigmike:

Health care does need some improvements in this country. The question is do you trust the party of big govt to make the changes.

Obama says he is not proposing a Hillary type govt takeover of health care. He is lying. His plan is designed to look like it merely tinkers with the present system. It doesn't.

Obama wants a govt insurance plan for those who don't have health insurance thru their employers. If he gets his way, what reason would an employer have to provide health insurance for it's employees? The govt will take care of it for them. Within 4 years a majority of us will get our health insurance from the govt. Like it or not.

____________________

zotz:

Jimbo77-
It's not apples and oranges. The scientific method is universal. Eratosthenes used the scientific method to determine the circumference of the earth circa 240 BC.

He did it using science, the greatest human invention of all time. The same principles are used in biology, geology, astronomy, and every other real science. Darwin was a scientist.

Intelligent design and creationism are pseudo sciences like astrology, alchemy, and witchcraft. Which one among the candidates believes in witchcraft?

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Oh, and by the way, John McCain was born in friggin' Panama!"

Which is why he's spending so much time in PA. He somehow thinks it's PAnama.

____________________

mysticlaker:
____________________

laguna_b:

@Bigmike

I KNOW our health care system is broken severely. Insurance companies cherry pick clients and overcharge. I can get BETTER covereage in France for $150/mo than I get in the USA for $600/mo. That is without participating in their social services. don't write off goverment for healthcare just because Republicans are completely incompetent at governing. France had teh BEST health care on the planet according to a WHO study. I KNOW how ad OUR system is.

____________________

johncoz:

@Bigmike
"Within 4 years a majority of us will get our health insurance from the govt. Like it or not."

And what would be wrong with that? Seems to work elsewhere okay.

(btw, I'm in Australia which 6th of the life expectancy table, as distinct from 45.)

____________________

laguna_b:

@johncoz

I had experience with the Australian health care system. Went into the ER had late night X-rays for SARS screening years ago. Total bill w/o insurance was about $200 including 4 hours in ER. That would have been $2000 here.

Americans are in denial about how pathetic our society has become. We cater to and applaud mediocrity. McDonald's, Joe Six Pack, Palin, etc...a nation in serious decline.

____________________

Viperlord:

May I direct everyone to my links about Canadian healthcare above?

____________________

Bigmike:

Glad to see the French and Aussies interested in US elections. Ain't the internet beautiful.

You guys obviously don't have any experience with the US Dem party. Their big programs never quite turn out right. The price of health care will go up and the quality will go down. And the answer then will be to spend even more.

____________________

Viperlord:
____________________

Basil:

@zotz

But how could Eratosthenes determine the circumference of the earth since nobody had been around the earth back then?

And how can we know the rotational period of the Milky Way Galaxy when we haven't gone around once in human history?

Fundamentalists have a Procrustean bed for everything. If it doesn't fit, you must omit.

Ladies and germs, I give you: Jim Boom

Drink up!


____________________

zotz:

Bigmike-
Face it, the HMO era is coming to an end. We will help you get through the grieving process.
I know how important it is to you but the rest of us don't want a committee of businessmen deciding whether or not to approve our medical treatment.

____________________

Viperlord:

Bigmike: Care to explain this for me? http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm

____________________

laguna_b:

@Bigmike

I am not in france (though I would surely prefer to be). I am in California and I HAVE had experience with the current system which I think is argueably the WORST in the industrialized world.
Perhaps if you traveled more and got a betterview of the planet you would see how wrong Ameicans are about thier place in the world.

The right beleives patriotism is defined by catering to the lowest common denominator, denying problems and ignorantly claiming to be the BEST when that is factually untrue.

A proud and loving parent does not praise thier child when it does wrong but rather guides it to greater accomplishments. Palin is clearly the opposite.

If the rednecks ever had salad with arugula, they would never go back to iceberg!

____________________

jonny87:

@political_junki

hopefully theyll be a good margin as the vote in person numbers make up an increasing proportion of turnout.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Hah! Factcheck.org gets an Annenberg grant ergo it's in the can for Obama?!! Well I guess that explains why other recipients of this Nixon-Republican millionaires largesse are advocates of such evils as evolution (Chicago Academy of Sciences, the Field Museum), education (Chicago State University, Columbia College Chicago, DePaul University, the Erikson Institute, Governors State University, National-Louis University, Northeastern Illinois University, Roosevelt University, the University of Chicago), literacy (the Great Books Foundation), children (Chicago Children's Museum, the Kohl Children's Museum), music and arts (Garfield Park Conservatory, the Chicago Symphony Orchestra, the Suzuki-Orff School of Music).

BTW Factcheck has nothing to do with the CHICAGO Annenberg Challenge, it's a seperate Annenberg grant. Annenberg also gives money to NPR and PBS.

____________________

@zotz

I disagree with you about alchemy.

Alchemy was the earliest form of depth psychology. It was coded and disguised as physical science in order to keep from being persecuted for teaching doctrines not approved by the church.

Carl Jung, one of the founders of modern psychology based his theories around alchemy.

When the church lost it's iron grip, alchemists (including Issac Newton) secularized science, and put the practice of magic where it belonged, as a tool for the betterment of people's state of mind.


____________________

laguna_b:

@Viperlord

Mccain's plan would be a DISASTER. Company plans are cheaper and all inclusive because they are group plans in which you can NOT BE REFUSED. If those are eliminated and we all go out looking to hte "competitive" market we will be picked off like flys as individuals. Insurance companies only want the super healthy.

Capitalism does not work well when the provider makes MORE by giving LESS....there is an incentive deny coverage and benefits. McCain has never experieinced this, I have!

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Bigmike:

"Glad to see the French and Aussies interested in US elections. Ain't the internet beautiful."

Get a clue dude...they are not "interested" in our healthcare system...they are laughing their asses off by the fact that we have the most expensive system but have piss-poor quality.

Republicans will never fix healthcare and here's why:

- the best healthcare systems in the world involve some sort of government coordination;

- Republicans fundamentally believe that "government is the problem" and this assumption that anything the government touches turns to muck becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy;

- so on healthcare they revert to the zombie-like mantra of "privatization without regulation" and the HMOs and drug companies have a field day fleecing the American people. Greed is good a la Gordon Gecko and the GOP.

____________________

Bigmike:

Viperlord

If you have a questions, ask away. I don't care to spend my time reading crap from some journalist.

Others

I didn't say our health care system doesn't need fixed. What I said was that the Obama plan, especially after the Dem congress gets thru with it, will make things worse, not better. We will spend more than we do now. Quality will go down.

I don't belong to an HMO.

You guys don't get it. You are CREATING a divide between the rich and the poor. The poor, including the working poor, will be on the govt system. Industries with unskilled labor will be the first to drop their employer health plans. The only industries who will keep theirs are the ones who have to attract talent.

____________________

johncoz:

@bigmike

My mother was a campaign worker for Adlai Stevenson in 1952. I was reading Walter Lippman at the age of 10.

Yes I am in Australia, and it is a fascinating sight seeing this historic election from afar. The world is watching the US finally turning its back on the most incompetent and vicious political regime in living memory. Nixon was a crook, but at least he wasn't stupid.

So before you snootily dismiss people because they're not sitting in Idaha or Texas (and, gasp! might even be living in a foreign country), remember that we are here, all of us, because we care, even when we disagree.

____________________

laguna_b:

@bigmike

No one has a vested interest in making a bad plan except the stakeholders like insurance companies and HMOs. The rest of us want to learn what works and what doesn't in the world. The rest of the world has blazed a path, we are followers but as followers we can avoid the mistakes and benefit. I plan to hold Obama to a high level of success...

____________________

cinnamonape:

So.Angliar..."Phil Berg just got Hilary the DNC Nomination. Will you guys still vote for her?"

Sorr, dope. He just got a dismissed case. Simply because HE released a press release CLAIMING that he won the case in court...when the judge ACTUALLY threw it out, demonstrates just what a bunch of cranks, crackpots and liars exists on the right.

In reality the Federal Elections Commission has authority over eligibility in elections. They have examined Obama's credentials and ruled they are complete and appropriate.

BTW I suggest looking at your own birth certificate. It will have a different registration date than the birthdate. That's simply because the Registrar of Births does not receive the data from the hospital until several days later. To use THAT, and rumors and hearsay to make a complaint is utterly absurd.

Obama has carried a US passport from childhood...which required a birth certificate be provided to the US State Dept. Offices in Honolulu. One would think that they, handling hundreds of thousands of such documents each year, would have spotted a forgery.

I can see why Obama has not offered to give his personal information over to Berg when he has already done so to the Federal Elections Commission. It's harassment by a nobody, pure and simply.

____________________

K Johnson:

New Ad asks if Obama has the experience to lead
Is the Republican Party this much out of touch? Running attacks against Obama using this experience stuffs is NOT WORKING. Why do they continue this? I don't get it. They have nothing better to offer. How this party was able to win elections in the past? I thought they were called the party of ideas? I think now they should be called the party of ignorant and out of touch.

____________________

HKFlashman:

Welcome foreign bloggers. Americans with passports understand how screwed up our country is and why Obama needs to be in the white house.

____________________

Bigmike:

NextAmericanChapter

"Get a clue dude...they are not "interested" in our healthcare system...they are laughing their asses off by the fact that we have the most expensive system but have piss-poor quality."

Let them laugh. I expect that we will come up with our own solutions. And they will be fine for us. You guys keep touting "statistics." My God, they have a longer life expectancy than we do, so they must have better health care. Maybe they live longer because we drive our cars much more than they do. So more people die in car accidents, and the difference has nothing to do with the quality of their health care vs ours.

johncoz

I am dismissing no one. Just pointing out the flaws in the Obama health care plan.

____________________

cinnamonape:

So-andSo.Angliar: "Conservative radio in Charlotte has already picked this story up"

Yep!

Just like they picked up the "I was attacked by a dyslexic 6'4" black Obama-supporting thief who carved a backwards "B" on my face and pummelled my face until I got these washable raccoon eyes" tale.

____________________

laguna_b:

@bigmike

>>>the difference has nothing to do with the quality of their health care vs ours.

Ah, sorry, but what is a more significant factor than this? And infant mortality?? Etc. etc.

Have you traveled overseas? Have you experienced any other system than the USA? I have....

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

The last nail on the coffin of the McCain/Palin circus show: Bill Clinton!!!

Bill and Barack will be campaigning together next week in Florida and PA. Those Florida grannies love Bill and this should be a good close for Obama in FL.

In other news, Palin is now squabbling with McCain staff...the circus show continues.....

____________________

ticketstub:

@Bigmike

I'm not sure dismissing life expectancy as possibly being because we get into more car accidents is as strong a point as you may think it is.

The fact is that, as the wealthy and strong nation we are, we should be one of the healthiest with longest life expectancies in the developed world. And we don't. And to claim that doesn't have anything to do with our health care system is ridiculous.

____________________

laguna_b:

@NextAmericanChapter

all those Florida Jewish mothers whose children don't call saw Obama go to the side of his Granny who is ill, don't think that went unnoticed.....the children of those Jewish grannies will NEVER hear the end of it!

"So, how busy were you that you couldn't call? What were you doing? Running for President? So What!"

____________________

zotz:

Bigmike-
OK, Mike answer this one. Is health care a right, a privilege, or a responsibility?

____________________

Bigmike:

HKFlashman & laguna_b

Yes I been outside the US. I was wearing a green uniform at the time. I know, in Lib's opinions, that doesn't count.

So the measure of one's intelligence is do they have a passport? Give me a DD-214 over a passport anytime.

____________________

Viperlord:

Bigmike: Fair enough. I would like you to take a quick look at these charts though, and explain how they correlate into Republican fiscal responsibility. http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt_files/image006.jpg

http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt_files/image004.jpg

____________________

laguna_b:

@Bigmike

Obama needs to bring everyone together on Health Care to make an intelligent reform and if you have criticism of it people like you should be involved in the vetting process....be nice to have policy determined by intelligent discourse and governance instead of vested greed.

____________________

johncoz:

@Bigmike
"Maybe they live longer because we drive our cars much more than they do."

have you travelled? have you ever looked at actuarial life tables? have you any real knowledge of how different health systems work (eg Britain, Canada and Australia are all quite different), and do you know what outcomes they deliver.

And what exactly is the GOP health plan? You can'tfix something if you won't admit it's broken, and if you are too insular (and in some cases, xenophobic) to admit that something could be learned by looking beyond your own borders.

And then there is the education system ...

____________________

mysticlaker:

It's over...see

www.cnn.com

The ticket has split. I doubt we'll see McCain and Palin in public again together.

____________________

Bigmike:

zotz

Is health care a right, a privilege, or a responsibility?

Wrong all the way around, my friend. It is a commodity.

____________________

Viperlord:

Bigmike: Ignore the bottom chart if you like, meant to put up this one http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt_files/image002.jpg

____________________

political_junki:

@BigMike:
Ofcourse the green uniform counts but it is not applicable to this discussion. you were not using a foreign countries healthcare.

"Give me a DD-214 over a passport anytime."

Some wars are neseccary but this statement doesnt make sense sorry. It means the only way you would like to travel to other countries is as an invader. It is not about being a lib or a con, it just doesnt make sense

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Shocking tape of Obama's grandmother saying that she was present for Obamas birth in Kenya coming out in a couple days. This is going to be HUGE"

Hah! They'll probably hire some poor elderly Kenyan woman who hasn't a clue to mouth the words. Or they'll find someone with a grandchild named "Barack" to say something like this.

Sorry! Ashley Todd...and her mythical "a 6'4' blackman sexually assaulted me and carved this backwards "B" on my cheek after he saw may McCain bumper sticker" sort of immunized people about this crap.

And we KNOW that it's stuff the McCain campaign WANTS to spread...because their spokesman in Pennsylvania contacted the media about the "attack" and gave out lines like "He said "You work for the McCain campaign...this will teach you a lesson".

How was this guy supposed to know she worked for the CAMPAIGN? Was he clairvoyant? Or was the McCainites suggesting the guy actually was STALKING her!


____________________

ticketstub:

@Bigmike

That's the fundamental difference, I guess. I see government as having one, specific job...protect it's citizens when they cannot protect themselves. That means protect them with a police force and protect them from threats from without with a military. But it also means protect them when they are at their most vulnerable and sick. If a government's job is not to protect its citizens, to keep them safe and healthy, what is it?

Health care is only a commodity if you view government's job to simply be to make money for those living under it.

____________________

timontheleft:

@mysticlaker

Seems she got a little too mavericky . . .

____________________

mysticlaker:

@tim

best quote.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else."

____________________

timontheleft:

@mystic

Agreed. The fact that "her family" was included in the comment is very telling.

____________________

laguna_b:

>>>"Give me a DD-214 over a passport anytime."

And you wonder why 9/11 happenned.....DUH!

____________________

timontheleft:

@Bigmike

You are correct. It is a commodity. That is exactly what is wrong with it.

____________________

laguna_b:

@mysticlaker

Gee, the last 10 days of the campaign is going to be on Palin's star going super nova? "who could ask for anything more?"

Great judgement McCain!

____________________

Bigmike:

political_junki

I wasn't an invader, sorry. Western Europe in the 70's. Beer, hash, and praying the Russians didn't invade. The DD-214 point is give me a vet over international travler.

Viperlord

I agree!!

I am a fiscal conservative. Lower taxes AND lower spending. The Rep party has let me down too.

ticketstub

So health care is a right? Does that mean energy is? Hell, you just justified the war in Iraq. Blood for oil. Why not, if we have a right to energy?

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Bigmike:

"And they will be fine for us. You guys keep touting statistics."

I know the GOP is championing anti-intellectualism, but this is too rich. Alright, if too many "statistics" bug you, I'll ask you to consider just two:

1) The United States spends more on health care than any other country in the world (16% of GDP) yet it has the poorest quality of all of the OECD countries.

2) There are 47 million people who are uninsured in the richest country in the world. If that doesn't bug you morally, then consider this:
when the uninsured turn up in emergency rooms across the country the cost of their treatment is passed along to those who do have insurance.

Folks, this stuff is not rocket science. All we need to do is get rid of the Republicans and their "privatization without regulation" nonsense.

Vote Obama/Biden, get your family to vote DEM, get your friends to vote DEM. In fact, practice some reverse psychology and call up all your past one-night-stands and pitch McCain to them.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Obama was going to cause a comedic depression going forward.....nothing to joke about, no stupid statements, ideas, contradictions etc. Face it, when you have material like Palin, where you don't even have to write your own lines!, why look further???"

But think of how much fun they'll have mocking all the absurd stuff that these fading right wing extremists are going bto come out with! Their perpetual efforts to get an investigation going of whether Obama was born in the USA because his birth certificate was submitted to the Registrar office a couple of days late. LOL! They'll be hauling out everyone's birth cerificates and finding out we were all born in Kenya. "The dates don't match!"

____________________

jonny87:
____________________

ticketstub:

@Bigmike

No, it doesn't mean energy is right. Would you mind explaining your logic in that jump? I'd like to hear it.

Are you REALLY comparing health care for the sick, medicine for children, transplants for those who need them with oil? That's ridiculous. Oil has nothing to do with protecting the citizens. Energy is as much of a right at automobiles.

Plus, we can get ourselves away from a need for oil. In fact, pay attention to the next 20-30 years...we're going to do it. You can't ever, as a country, get away from a need for health care.

____________________

Bigmike:

NextAmericanChapter

Are you guys intentionally missing the point. Let me say it out loud and plain.

WE NEED TO FIX HEALTH CARE

Now, the question is how. I don't have all of the answers.

Is the answer a govt program? We have problems with the poor needing better housing. Guess what the Dem govt program gave us for the answer. THE PROJECTS.

johncoz

You are right about education. Another thing that needs fixed. Again, I don't think a federal govt program is the answer.

____________________

johncoz:

@mysticlaker

It's 3/4 media beat-up of course, but that's what happens when you're losing. Not only is disunity death, but imminent death breeds disunity.

Next will come the real recriminations about the alleged recriminations. And all with one week to go :-)

____________________

laguna_b:

So do we all want our children to drop out of school and become plumbers or would we be more proud if they went to Harvard and finished at the top of their class?

____________________

zotz:

The Reps have successfully frightened the public over the "Big Government" question. Part of this was the southern concern about states rights. Part of it was old fashioned red-baiting. Part of it was the anti-welfare argument. I think in normal times Obama might be overwhelmed by the Republican message. But this time the anti-American socialist smear wont work. And if you take that away there is nothing left. Reaganomics has been discredited.

Get ready for Obamanomics. The public are desperate for something different If it is even partially successful the Reps will be out of office for a long time. Palin certainly will not be the one to bring them back.

____________________

laguna_b:

I wanna see McCain have a PUBLIC blowup with Palin....now THAT would break ALL records on youtube!

____________________

Bigmike:

ticketstub

Energy is just as necessary as health care to our modern way of life. If I don't have heat this winter, I am damn sure gonna need more health care. No, I don't advocate war for oil. I was making a point.

My opinion is BOTH are commodities. To be bought and sold. They are not rights.

We are indeed going to get away from fossil fuels in the not too distant future. We have to. My reasons are likely different from yours, but the end result is the same. But we are still going to need energy in some form to sustain our way of life.

____________________

johncoz:

@zotz
"Palin certainly will not be the one to bring them back."

Yeah, but it will be fun watching her try.

____________________

timontheleft:

@zotz

I think people are starting to look for SOLUTIONS rather then LABELS. If whatever Obama does works people are going to go for it regardless of what anyone calls it.

____________________

laguna_b:

>>But we are still going to need energy in some form to sustain our way of life.

We have more than we can use right here....Solar, wind, geothermal....oil is on the way out...let us not fight over it

____________________

jonny87:

Democrat Barack Obama has extended his lead slightly to 15 percentage points over Republican John McCain in Iowa, according to a new Courier-Lee Enterprises poll


"I think Obama’s going to carry Iowa comfortably," said Del Ali, a pollster with Research 2000, which conducted the survey.

http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2008/10/25/news/breaking_news/doc4903890740db0457887786.txt

you gotta wonder what the hells going on in mccains campaign.

____________________

Bigmike:

zotz

"If it is even partially successful the Reps will be out of office for a long time. Palin certainly will not be the one to bring them back."

We agree for once. Or even twice.

It won't be Palin. She may have some political future, but not as Pres, at least any time soon.

I even agree that if Obama has a good measure of success, it will be very difficult to throw you guys out. Of course, my expectations for his success are probably quite different from yours.

Been fun. Gotta run.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Yeah, interesting that comment about Palin not even having a relationship of trust with her family. Yikes! What does THAT MEAN? Could it mean that in the belated vetting that they discovered something "naughty"? Or that she's willing to steamroll and use members of her family in her quest for power (recall how she essentially exposed her own daughters pregnancy to avoid giving over Trig's birth certificate).

Although I'll say one thing...while Diva's are "b*tc*es" they do have some "class". Palin doesn't.


____________________

TheDragon:

The McCain campaign seems to be falling apart. Palin seems to be trying to prepare so she can try run in 012. McCain will need something in the next few days to change the polls or we will see an abandon ship next week. As many republicans in tight races not only try seperate themselves from Bush from from Palin and McCain.

Joe the Plumber has been a disaster. It has done nothing 4 him. White men were already voting for McCain more than Obama . If Joe the Plumber was a plant then he should have used a female. Despite Sarah he is doing bad with women.

____________________

timontheleft:

@cinnamonape

No she certainly doesn't. But at least now she's got a killer wardrobe . . . :-)

____________________

TheDragon:

Republicans need to change there party. If they are going in the direction of Palin though it might be some dark days for the republicans. I'm not even sure this girl believes in Dinosaurs.

____________________

timontheleft:

@TheDragon

I honestly think that the time for a new major party has come. There is a lot of support for Libertarians (at least around here). If they could get organized and find a real leader I think they could get a lot of traction in the future.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

a guy goes to a gym to work out and misses several billion years of evolution! lmao.

as i read Steve_OH (kuddos and thumbs up, btw fwiw!)explain basic concepts of biology to someone whose mind is FOREVER closed, AngryDwarf's and NW Patrick's approach seems more and more like a straight line to connect the two points: between the idiot d'jour, and the exit sign.

On an unrelated note, as I was working out, the Diva Palin gone rogue story broke on CNN. We read it here first, but now it made it big time. If only the leftist MSM showed the same sort of openness to the lunatic ravings of right wing racists! Watcha gonna do.

Using Angry Latte Criteria today has been a great day for Obama: the lunatic fringe rants on pollster at elevated level. :)

____________________

asquared:

Preparing for 2012? At this rate Palin will be lucky to be re-elected Governor.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Big Mike~ To get answers one cannot simply look to ideology- right or left- but to examples of what failed and what has worked. Those examples can come from history and from other countries (or even places or systems here in the US).

What was education in American before there was "government" education? Is that really what you want to bring back...an elite university system that is obtainable only for the wealthiest? Those are the systems of higher education you'll find in many third world countries. Ditto for lower levels of education...no standards, only wealthy can attend the best schools, millions of kids on the streets.

Housing? Look back at what housing in cities was like prior to public housing. Do a little research...as bad as it is now (and there were massive mistakes in those huge projects of the 1950's) the private unregulated tenements run by slumlords were worse. But the best system would be to give people a chance to establish a stake in their own housing and communities. Neither having a capitalist slumlord nor a socialist slumlord is the answer to THAT. So how does one move the poor and lower middle class into SECURE home ownership? Is that done by bailing out their landlords and yet evicting THEM for not paying their mortgages?

And the privately insured healthcare model...show me a nation where it actually works. Where it provides adequate coverage to all classes of people. Yet there are scores of cases where "socialised" or "group coverage" medicine does so.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Bigmike:

"Is the answer a govt program? We have problems with the poor needing better housing. Guess what the Dem govt program gave us for the answer. THE PROJECTS."

Now I'm beginning to understand why Obama isn't 20+ points ahead. With some people it really is like talking to a wall. They just hear what they want to hear. Anyway, I'll try one last time:

Obama is NOT proposing to nationalize healthcare and he's NOT mandating healthcare for adults . Under Obama, the government will not provide healthcare like it provided housing in the Projects. He is actually pushing for reform and striving for more robust competition amongst PRIVATE insurance companies. Let me underscore this point: better competition amongst PRIVATE health insurance companies is the cornerstone of his plan.

Listen, I think you're a decent enough fellow. Quit listening to Limbaugh and Fox News and go directly to the source...read Obama's plan!!!

____________________

jonny87:

@TheDragon

first off they need to make themselves acceptable to hispanics with stats like this...

About 1
....of every two people added to the nation’s population between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2007, was Hispanic.

http://www.infoplease.com/spot/hhmcensus1.html

republicans will find it impossible if the rapidly growing hispanic population goes against them the kind of numbers we are seeing now...70-30

____________________

cinnamonape:

Johnny: "I think Obama’s going to carry Iowa comfortably," said Del Ali, a pollster with Research 2000, which conducted the survey.

"you gotta wonder what the hells going on in mccains campaign."

Well, isn't it quite clear! Obama has not only himself, but his wife, Biden and Jill, and the Clintons out campaigning for him.

It's time for McCain to bring out the "big guns"...the guys that the Republicans loved for well on a decade. The only ones that can bring the faithful out the final week of the campaign.

Yep! Now's the time for the OCTOBER SURPRISE!


Bush and Cheney!

How could they lose ;-)

____________________

jonny87:

...add to that the dem affiliation advantage with new voters.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"I'm not even sure this girl believes in Dinosaurs."

Of course she does...but she calls them "Jesus Horses".

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

Hey you still around man? I wanted to talk some Palin earlier but the forum was being being trolled by and ID-iot and I just couldn't bear the thought of another pointless "God in the gaps" argument from the uber-faithful.

My question is can you hear the sound of the Republican ship breaking up from the great white north? I've seen a bunch of articles now about how the aides are blaming Palin for being a "rouge diva." Fantastic news, its a Repblican knife fight for who screwed the campaign worse.

To throw a little more gas on that fire it looks like shes involved in more corruption.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/25/palins-pipeline-deal-flaw_n_137825.html

Who would have suspected that Palin would be guilty of corruption?

Fantastic...

____________________

jonny87:

@cinnamonape

or OCTOBER SURPRISE...

mccain: 'you thought we'd ran a terrible campaign up to now? you aint seen nothing yet! IOWA all day everyday!'

____________________

jonny87:

@cinnamonape

"Jesus Horses"

LOL

____________________

political_junki:

It is stupid beyond imagination for McSame to spend so much of so little time he has left in IOWA. If his campaign is any indication of how he is gonna run the country, we will be better off having Joe the Plumber himself running the country rather than McSame.
I mean the guy has 10 days left and he is campaigning in IA and PA. and he is gonna lose both by double digits.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Oh Sarah Palin believes in Dinos alright, she just thinks that they were here 6000 years ago and they walked with people.

I always imagine Sarah Palin's bible looks something like this:

And on the seventh day God created the Remington Bolt Action rifle. He said unto his people now go forth and slay the might dinosaurs with this, and if you can happen to pick of some of those homosexuals while you are at it, so much the better.

I've read the bible as part of a literature kick and I don't remember all of this stuff about evolution, astronomy or science anywhere within the pages of that vast tomb. How is it that people base their entire worldview off of a book written thousands of years ago by people who didn't know about things like the number 0, and "the earth is round."

Sounds like a great joke that no one got.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

McCain and Palin are still campaigning in Iowa. That's right...they are spending valuable face time in freaking IOWA!!!

Am I alone in thinking that I could run the McCain campaign much better? Why he didn't pick Romney I will never know. Why he let Sarah Palin campaign as a mocking and sarcastic attack dog, I will never know. If you're the new guy/gal, you win people over by being charming and centrist and not by spewing hate and throwing red meat to your own base.

I'm strongly behind Obama, but geez, McCain should make him earn it. Right now Obama could phone it in for the whole of next week.

____________________

Steve_OH:

@HKFlashman:

"Welcome foreign bloggers. Americans with passports understand how screwed up our country is and why Obama needs to be in the white house."

Indeed. I was in a cab in Istanbul last year, and the driver asked, "So, do you guys like Bush?" We said no. He then asked, "Every American I ask says they don't like Bush; how did he become President?" We had to explain to him that the people who liked Bush would never dream of traveling to Turkey. (Istanbul is a spectacularly beautiful city by the way, and I hate big cities.)

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@NextAmericanChapter

I haven't looked but are there any important Senate or House races in Iowa? Is he starting his Bob Dole "march of defeat" tour?

Otherwise we all know that the ass-clowns in his campaign are really, really bad copies of Karl Rove.

Or do they use Diebold machines in Iowa?

____________________

political_junki:

There's been "a tidal shift" in Colorado toward the Democratic Party, Lori Weigel of Public Opinion Strategies told Rocky Mountain News editors and reporters Friday.

Her polling company is Republican, by the way.

Weigel was commenting on the latest results of a Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 survey of state voters, and the results bear her out. Compared to just a couple of months ago, the shift in support from John McCain to Barack Obama has been dramatic - from a statistical dead heat to a comfortable 12-point Obama lead.

____________________

The Dude:

"I will not meet with ruthless dictators without preconditions..."

Who said that? McSame, of course, after he met with that lovely and delightful guy down in Chile Augusto Pinochet.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-dinges/mccain-meets-a-bloody-dic_b_137422.html

____________________

jonny87:

well they like there early voting...

DEMS:50.1
REPS:28.2

____________________

jonny87:

if mccains banking on a massive bradley effect im sure iowa would be about the last place for it to happen.

____________________

jonny87:

In case anyone missed it rasmussen updated party affiliation weightings

Dems 40.0% (+.3)
Reps 32.8% (-.2)
Indi 27.2% (-.1)

democrats have been steadily gaining ground week on week..

In mid-September, the last weighting targets established before the financial crunch became visible on Wall Street, the targets were 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. Since that time, the number of Democrats has increased by 1.3 percentage points and the number of Republicans has declined by 0.8 percentage points for a net swing of 2.1 percentage points

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

OneAngryDwarf:

If I was running in a competitive race in Iowa, I wouldn't ask for McCain's help. He really pissed them off with his sanctimonious lectures on ethanol. He had his ass handed to him in the primaries...I think he came in fourth or fifth.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

from Daily Kos:

AZ-Pres: Hold on to your hats!
by kos
Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:23:38 PM PDT

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Likely voters

McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)

McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47

"The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they've hinted at similar results. Makes me wish I would've polled Arizona instead of Tennessee."

um...is this a joke?

____________________

political_junki:

NextAmericanChapter:
OneAngryDwarf:
Harkin(D) is running against Reed(R) in IA senate and he is 14 points ahead in Rass...

____________________

jonny87:

obama within striking distance in Arizona

http://www.dailykos.com/

that would be beautiful!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@kerrchdavis

Nope, there are some very liberal parts of AZ. I live near Tucson and I can tell you that here by the University is very liberal. The governor is a Democrat and one of the big reasons that McCain got elected to begin with is that he was pretty moderate.

I doubt AZ will be blue on Nov. 5th but it will be a very tight race.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@OneAngry

Well, I certainly buy the argument that AZ can be pretty liberal. But McCains home state in play? just wow...

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@kerrchdavis

He's just not the same guy. Everyone here knows it. I liked him before he started his hard swerve to the right. He used to be very centrist in his politics and he didn't pander to the worst parts of the Republican base (Christian Dominionists, Karl Rove politics, etc) but now you can't tell him apart from Michele Bachmann and her ilk.

It has not gone without notice here and I would guess that if he choses to run for Senate again he will not win.

____________________

d3nnisbest:

southernangler and boomsak = same pathetic troll

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

not choses, chooses. Man I need an editor.

____________________

political_junki:

"The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent"

Does any body has real statistics about party id in Az?

____________________

laguna_b:

McCain has a venue to push ISSUES but nstead he bitches that Obama is writing his inaugural speech....http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/25/mccain_makes_hay_of_obama_inau.html
The joke is on McCain...who JUST DOES NOT GET IT! It is OVER!

____________________

laguna_b:

@oneangrydwarf
>>I wouldn't ask for McCain's help. He really pissed them off with his sanctimonious lectures on ethanol.

One time I congratulate McCain for telling it like it is...corn ethanol is a dead end....no one in alternative energy I know would argue that one....

____________________

mirrorball:

From the Arizona Secretary of State voter count as of 10/22/08:
http://www.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/

Dem 34.2%
GOP 37.4%
Other 27.6%

____________________

Basil:

http://timesonline.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/22/jesus_and_the_dinosaurs.jpg

I love this picture (and I don't hate Jesus either). Guess most of you have seen it. Doing a google image search with jesus as the keyword yields lots of wacky results.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Praise Jesus! Arizona is safe for John McCain! Finally good news for John McCain.

____________________

political_junki:

@mirror:
Thanx so that poll was skewed toward republicans by 4 points, which is good news given how close they are in that poll

____________________

political_junki:

@Basil:
ROFLMAO!!!!

____________________

political_junki:

PPP poll in VA:
Barack Obama 52
John McCain 43

-----------------------------------------------
It looks like there could be a shift of as many as 20 points in the Democratic direction in Virginia relative to 2004.

Certainly Barack Obama's 61-24 lead with new voters has a lot to do with that. But there's a lot more going on as well:

-A major shift in suburbia. When you hear about Virginia's changing electorate, this is where it's happening. Suburban voters in our poll reported supporting John Kerry just 48-44 in 2004. Now they're going for Obama 58-38. Given that almost half of Virginians describe themselves as suburbanites, this shift explains Obama's success in the state more than anything else.

-Independents turned on their heads. This is happening pretty much everywhere but that doesn't make it any less notable. The ones we surveyed supported George W. Bush 46-38 in 2004. Now they're for Obama 48-39.

-A big shift with young voters. The ones we surveyed who voted in 2004 supported John Kerry by a narrow margin of 42-36. Now the demographic as a whole support Obama 56-34.

____________________

laguna_b:

@mysticlaker

If the Kos numbers are correct it means Obama picked up a larger percentage of inependants which matches what we see everywhere so even Goldwater carried Az. but if McCain fails....well he still has his memories with Sarah....

____________________

political_junki:

Out of last 10 polls in VA bigO has lead by ten in 4 of them and more than 5 in 7 of them :-)
That is dark blue.

____________________

jonny87:

from drudge..

'ZOGBY SUNDAY: Single day of polling, 49% to 46% in favor of Obama... Developing...

ill stick with rasmussen and gallup.


____________________

TheDragon:

Republicans should court hispanics and african american voters. African American voters didn't turn out in the past. Once you start voting you get addicted and now they should expect much bigger AA turnouts in future elections. Republicans missed a big opportunity in the past with Powell popularity in the African American community.

Republicans have a shot at Hispanic votes. Fact is the hard nose approach they have in regards to immigration makes it tough.

Palin was picked because of the part of America that votes with there bible in hand. Bush could get those votes easy. McCain needed someone to excite the base of the party. Those people are more excited about Palin than they are McCain. Question I have is why give McCain the nomination if he can't excite even your base voters.

That base I believe is the reason you have not seen JM bring up Jeremiah Wright. Many of those people think what happens in the church stays in the church. If McCain attacks a preacher you may see backlash.

____________________

mirrorball:

Forgot to add.
Libertarians make up 6.1% of AZ voters.

and looking at the numbers, Dems have added about 168,000 voters since 2006, while Republicans have added 104,000.

____________________

political_junki:

@jonny:
"Dont you know Obama has bought off Rassmussen for 50mil? " lol. that is boom's newest master piece :) and no i am not saying this, he actually said it.

____________________

laguna_b:

Obama is cooly and calmly doing his victory lap while writing his inaugural speech.....that is why we love this guy and TRUST his leadership. McCain is pacing the stage nervously and going crazy unable to focus on ISSUES.

____________________

mirrorball:

um yeah, I should look at my calculator again.

Libertarians are more like 0.6% of AZ voters.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@political_junki

Was it boomshak or boomshack that posted that?

Either way frickin' hilarious to watch Republican's melting down on all fronts. I know that boom was pushing the idea the other day that Obama's numbers showed him way behind and that Team O was "freakin' out."

I wonder what we'll see next week?

____________________

laguna_b:

@jonny87

R U serious? If they go from 9% to 4% thier credibility will be zero......

____________________

Basil:

My definition of a Libertarian is someone who doesn't have enough money to be a Republican and doesn't have enough friends to be a Democrat.

Of course I'm exaggerating. No amount of money actually jutifies being a Republican (or a neocon anyway), since R's have to live in the world with everybody else. They just fool themselves into thinking they don't.

____________________

political_junki:

@AngryDwarf:
I didnt pay attention, it could be either one 50-50 ;-)
I dont think any of his parodies do him justice. He is funnier himself than all of them combined.

____________________

political_junki:

Taking the Whole Party Down:
Former Bush speechwriter David Frum: "There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him... I could pile up the poll numbers here, but frankly... it's too depressing. You have to go back to the Watergate era to see numbers quite so horrible for the GOP."

October 25, 2008

____________________

political_junki:

laguna_b:
"@jonny87

R U serious? If they go from 9% to 4% thier credibility will be zero......"

I didnt know Zogby still has any credibility left to lose??

____________________

Basil:

boomshack's OK but boomshak is the real nut job deal.

It is odd how his messed-up spirit provides so much of the fodder for comments on this site, as others point out occasionally.

____________________

Lechuguilla:

I've found a great way to get through these threads with maximum information and minimum wasted time.

I turbo-scroll past everything from that boom-person. Except for comic relief, there's no reason for me to waste my time with that person.

By the way, "Lechuguila" is pronounced Lech-ah-GEE-ah. It is the name of one of the five largest wilderness caves in the world, and is located in New Mexico, near Carlsbad.

We need a president who will protect wilderness areas in particular, and the environment in general.

Lech

____________________

mysticlaker:

Watch out for desperation...Set off the alarms at drudge (already started)

ZOGBY SUNDAY: Single day of polling, 49% to 46% in favor of Obama.

Zogby should be banned from everything for releasing information to drudge. He is a mockery to legitimate pollsters.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Frum is too generous to McCain...his boss Bush had a major role in this fiasco, as did the people in the party.

You have to give people a reason to vote for a party. When they are in power COMPETENT governance is a major criteria.

The litany of errors by the Bush Administration is so long that it doesn't bear repeating. The only way that McCain could be successfully competing in this election would have been if he had been a Ron Paul figure...and but taken more pro-Democratic positions instead of supporting the Republican constipatory filibusters.

That way he might have taken the center away. The problem was that he would have lost the Primaries (so blame the perty stalwarts, there). But perhaps he and Paul (or Barr) could have run a "renegade campaign". In a split election they might have become the first Libertarian ticket to win the Presidency.


____________________

Pat:

Last Sunday Zogby was only +3 Obama. So even if Zogby shows a tighter poll tonight, no big deal.

____________________

maddiekat:

Zogby is a fraud!! Period....

____________________

fed:

Stop looking at individual National polls. At this point of the race, look at trends. People are voting right now, that is the most accurate poll there is, its real voting. State polls and the trends in Battleground polls are more important than national polls. Remember that most resources of both campagins are put in these battleground States, as a mattter of fact National trends might be moving one way and battle ground trends in another

(for real numbers check this out)
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@fed

I've got to ask man, what do you do for a living. You always come with analysis backed up with good information.

Are you a lawyer?

____________________

adocarbog:

PPP Virginia
Obama 52% McCain 43%

Arizona
Obama 40% McCain 44% (early vote 47-46 for Obama)

Iowa
Obama 54% McCain 39%
http://wcfcourier.com/articles/2008/10/25/news/breaking_news/doc4903890740db0457887786.txt

____________________

fed:

I am involved in politics

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@fed

Figures. Thanks for the insight, good stuff.

____________________

Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Hold onto your hats according to the Sludge Report Zogby's one day sample was O 49 M 46 for today. That will be boomcrap's favorite pollster, so tommorow should narrow to O 50 M 44 or so.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Ugh

You realize that the worst thing about Zogby being even remotely close is that now we'll have to suffer through another round of boomstupid.

I keep hoping (obviously in vain) that he'll just give up and stop spamming this forum with his cut & paste from the far far right.

Now that the door isn't completely closed we'll have to listen to how Obama is having underage gay communist sex with a terrorist or whatever boomstunt decides he's going to push on us.

I guess it could be worse. At least O is winning and the Republican party is getting ready to implode.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3260074/Republican-fears-of-historic-Obama-landslide-unleash-civil-war-for-the-future-of-the-party.html

____________________

fed:

By the way, that AZ poll is interesting. If you look at the polls in RCP for Arizona, all but Rasmussen had the race in the high single digets, the only one that didn't was Rasmussen. These 3 polls were made in September, Obama´s trend since then has been upwards. A McCain 4 point lead could be reasonable. This would be the case if we assume that Rasmussen is the outlier. I would love to see the internals. It has many undicided voters, but again AZ has a huge Hispanic population that is breaking 70/30 for Obama and Hispanics are lees influenced by the local media. They have their own national media

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Zogby is showing ridiculous swings in his demographics.

____________________

fed:

Don't you think that if the story of a fight within the McCain campaing keeps on growing in the media, and it looks like McCain and Palin are not geeting along, many voters in the republican base who are more supportive of Palin could stay home on election day?

____________________

johncoz:

A one-day result from Zogby doesn't mean poop.
Sample max 400, MOE 4.9%.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@fed

Yeah exactly. It would be my bet that we could be looking at a record low for voter turnout among the Repubs.

The base is splintered between the neo-cons, theo-cons, fiscal conservatives and big spenders. Who can be happy with the policy positions in the Republican party. What do they stand for at this point? If you can't vote for Obama, but you don't believe in your party, smart money is on R's staying home.

That would be HUGE for downticket races and could really put an end to Republican rule in the House and Senate for decades to come.

Here's to hoping.

____________________

adocarbog:

Gotta give Republicans sonething to be hopeful about and Zogby is a happy Republican ready to supply what is demanded

____________________

fed:

Danna Bash just reported on CNN about the tensions between the McCain camp and Palin Camp.Palin is more popular in the republican base, if they feel palin is not treated correctly, they might punish McCain and stay home. Just waiting for Palin 2012. It all depends how big this story becomes in the media for the next few days.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Those PPP numbers are fantastic, especially Virginia. I expect a couple of trips back to VA for Obama, perhaps even an election eve rally.

____________________

fed:

The best PPP poll for me is the one in NC. They have been very accurate in NC in past elections

____________________

Bigmike:

OneAngryDwarf & Fed

Probably wishful thinking that Repubs will stay home. I am one of those fiscal cons, and I will be voting. Not joyfully. But voting.

Serious question.

When we look at those who have voted early, we don't really know who they voted for. So the info we see is party registration, right? So many registered Dems, registered Reps, and registered Indies have voted. Is that correct?

____________________

political_junki:

@BigMike:
Yes, we can only guess their vote based on party id and demographics...

____________________

fed:

It is correct, but.......
55.2 dem, 27.8 rep, and 17 Ind, in North Carolina with a 30.7 of the total vote in, tells us a lot.

____________________

Bigmike:

Thanks junki

Yes, I am indeed grasping at straws here. Looking for a reason to not throw in the towel. And not finding many.

Unless all of the polls are wrong, or even at the extreme of their MOE, it looks like a Dem win. Obama is staying above 50 and McCain can't break 45.

Fed is right about the early voting. Even if there is a major LATE October surprise, it would have to be something earth shaking to offset the votes that have already been cast.

But conceding before all the votes are cast just doesn't seem right either. Any of you guys have any REAL dirt on Obama? We could use a hand here.

____________________

political_junki:

@BigMike:
"I am one of those fiscal cons"
I have always wished there was a way to I could get a fiscally conservative socially liberal candidate.
I always liked McCain, well before he picked Palin. But honestly how can someone vote for a person who picked a VP: who believes literally adam and eve lived with dainasours and earth was created in 7 days 6000 years ago. my parents are religious but ,being the kind of ignorant fundamentalist that she is and then be the second person in the country, that is unimaginable for me.

____________________

Bigmike:

political_junki

Faith is a funny thing. That is why it should be left out of politics. Politics is a funny thing too. If you put the two together, it just gets way out of hand.

Palin is not a bad person, at least as far as I know. I am sure we have had worse public servants. It would be a pretty long list. McCain had to have some red meat to feed the base with. To cover his own weaknesses.

____________________

political_junki:

@Bigmike:
"Faith is a funny thing. That is why it should be left out of politics"
I agree, and I have nothing against private faith. As I said my parents are religious republicans too (But they are voting third party just because of Palin). I just cant bring myself to see Palin appoint a supreme court judge etc, you know why, EXACTLY what you said:
"That is why it should be left out of politics"
She wont leave it out...

Well McCain probably did Dems a favor, his base didnt need red meat, they disliked Obama to vote for him eventually. But had he picked somebody like Romney, now he would have had a stronger position on economy and in Michigan.

Or had he picked Tom Ridge, then he could have kept campaigning in PA and not look like a lunatic...
Anyway, fiscally, believe it or not , our position might be closer than what you think...

____________________

fed:

BigMike do not throw the towel. If your voting with your consciense, and your heart tells you to do so too, you are doing the correct thing. It is not your fault that the leaders of your party srewed up. maybe this is the best thing that can happen to the republican party. Now it can reorganize, develope into a modern party that starts growing again but from the base up.

____________________

johncoz:

@Bigmike:
"McCain had to have some red meat to feed the base with."

But isn't that a terrible comment on the "coalition" Rove forged that now defines that base. It was not thus for Republicans of yore.

Yoking Christianism to conservatism has all but destroyed the latter. And where it goes now is anyone's guess.

____________________

asquared:

What's with Zogby? Do they have a different tracking group for every day of the week? I know that's not how it's supposed to work, but it would explaing the pattern of tightening every weekend and opening up during the week.

____________________

johncoz:

Such a change in the one-day sample is well within the MOE of almost 5%. Only a complete clot like Drudge would regard it as important.

____________________

political_junki:

asquared:
Zogby is an idiot.
He throws darts 400 times a day and keeps that tracking average of his hits. that is how he comes up with his numbers. Bigest hack ever that moron

____________________

political_junki:

asquared:
by the way i dont say this because of todays number, i said this when he was showing obama +12

____________________

Bigmike:

Junki, I am getting cynical in my old age. I haven't really liked a candidate in years. You think the unabomber wants to sell that shack of his. I need me a place like that, then I won't have to worry about the caliber of politicians we have.

I don't know how to change the R party. Take it back from the social conservatives who won't give up the abortion fight they already lost. As a conservative, I believe in our system. Including things like judicial precedent. I think that is the right word. So the only way to overturn Roe v Wade is a constitutional amendment. And that will not happen without red majorities in a whole lot of blue states. Why not spend your time fighting for something that really is possible. Like smaller govt, lower taxes.

I could always switch to the D party. But they are just as whacko the other direction. OK, even worse whacko, IMHO.

Did the govt auction off the unabomber shack?

____________________

johncoz:

Oh, and don't forget Zogby is using 2004 weightings for Dem/Repub (38/36), so any normal sampling error against Obama becomes greatly magnified.

____________________

fed:

with soooooooooooo many forclousers.............

____________________

political_junki:

"Why not spend your time fighting for something that really is possible. Like smaller govt, lower taxes."
Exactly!
unibomber shak? I think they put it in the museum, he wrote a letter from the jail complaining govt is violating his privacy by putting it putting on the show!

____________________

political_junki:

johncoz:
"Oh, and don't forget Zogby is using 2004 weightings for Dem/Repub (38/36),"
It is not even that. You can calculate the D/R/I based on his results. I did this once, it is close to D=23, R = 26 and I =51...

____________________

johncoz:

junki,

I'm going on what he reported to the WSJ, and later confirmed by Nate. Because of the iterative weighting process across a range of demog variables, it is virtually impossible to reverse engineer any particular weighting used from results (though I know several people still manfully try).

____________________

Bigmike:

We will be back in four years. Better than ever.

We won't be stuck with a candidate who went the public financing route, so you won't be able to outspend us. I'm gonna start throwing a few bucks in a jar every week and give it to the sanest conservative I can find, when the time comes. It won't be Huckabee or Palin. Maybe Romney or Pence. Who knows, a lot can happen in three years.

____________________

political_junki:

johncoz:
"it is virtually impossible to reverse engineer any particular weighting used from results (though I know several people still manfully try)."

but still numbers have to add up right? when he says obama and mccain are both winning 90% of their party and obama is ahead 20 points among indies but overall he is only ahead by 8 , you just have to solve a three unknown, three equation to get the D,R,I. or am i missing somthing?

____________________

I was reading the comments earlier, and noticed some guy using the name southern angler who kept mentioning some site called obamacrimes.com So I thought to myself, what lies have they come up with now since nothing else is working. So, I went to check it out. Come to find it, it’s just a scam asking for donations. Listen people, don’t be a sucker and help someone buy a new car in these hard times by donating money to this scam. A domain name is only $9.99 a year, and hosting is $3.99 a month at places like go daddy.com So, for $13.98 some idiot put this site together with lies just to make money. Don’t fall for it, and pass this word on.

____________________

johncoz:

Bigmike,

Or maybe you might decide that Obama is not such a bad president after all, and donate to him :-)

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Padron

I figure if they believe some of that stuff on the site then maybe they should lose a couple bucks.

____________________

I advise all you McCain a** kisser's to go to www.fromwhatiknow.info then click on the menu, and then on The Real McCain and watch actual video of McCain flip flopping, where he says on thing, and a year later, say a total diffrint thing. Lies caught on video. Just anither lying Bush.

www.fromwhatiknow.info

____________________

mirrorball:

Unabomber shack is/was on display at the Newseum in Washington, DC, as part of an exhibit on the FBI. Maybe they'll rent it out.x\

http://www.newseum.org/exhibits_th/fbi_feat/index.aspx?item=unabomber_index&style=c

____________________

johncoz:

junki,

the problem is that all those numbers he reports have been already weighted for party, age, gender, race, region etc. So this tiny sample has to stretched and squeezed to find best fit on all these axes. Depending on the vagaries of the day's sample, things are virtually guaranteed to not "add up".

or more clearly, perhaps, the weightins you derive from the results are not the same weighting that are the inputs for the weighting algorithm. Does that make sense?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@1Angry,
Just got back from an event. I heard the Diva Palin stories breaking all day, as I mentioned, but only this PM did it hit CNN. It is still one of the top 3 stories on their website.

Speaking of which, my wife has a dreaded blackbery,which actually comes in pretty handy - pollster.com is mobile compatible unlike a lot of other sites out there. So when we are together, I can get poll updates while on the road, which is pretty fn awesome!

In any case, via the mobile site access I can see three newer polls, including the CO poll, the OH Muhl. poll that we've been talking about already posted,and some other poll I forgot. And at home I do not see these last three at all. I wonder why?!

We can talk Palin tomorrow, if you want. The article is pretty damning: a LOT of squabbling going around in McCamp and PalinZone: the journalists were able to get a TON of aides to speak off record in both. Amazing. They have a couple of actual names ON record talking about being thrown under the proverbial bus in all this. This is PRIMO stuff: the acrid stench of death from a decomposing campaign.

Palin and Bachmann school of theological sciences is DONE. Bachmann is down in the polls by 3, and that's BEFORE El Tinklenberg ads hit the air two days ago. Today I saw my first DNCC ad against Bachmann. It was at a pretentious suburbia restaurant where we had our function. You know the type, white tablecloths, black-suit clad waiters, yet giant plasmas all over the bar area broadcasting Ohio State vs Penn State on mute.

The ad came on, and I had to watch it the way Sarah watches SNL: with sound off. It was still pretty damning. You can stick a fork in her. She is done.

Palin, meanwhile...the cutest, the absolutely cutest thing about her, is that she actually believes that she is popular and loved. She has this headstrong naive belief in herself, which is while highly commendable and charming in 16 yo debutantes, is so very pathetic in 44 yo demagogues, be they Palin or boomshak.

K, more manana.

____________________

Bigmike:

johncoz

Or maybe you might decide that Obama is not such a bad president after all, and donate to him :-)

Don't hold your breath on that one. Unless you look really good in blue.

I will try not to pre-judge him. But we have very little in common.

On the Palin thing. I think it has come down to who is gonna take the blame for blowing this. It is politicians playing CYA. If you read the whole piece on CNN, they even say John Edwards did some of the same 4 years ago. Palin is trying to salvage whatever she can for her own future. Do you blame her?

____________________

Basil:

Bush claimed to be a uniter, but alienated the vast majority of Americans.

I'm just hopeful enough to think that Obama might be able to do what Bush didn't. At least a little bit...

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

If Obama wins, he needs to replicate the approach that he's used in campaigning and govern as a centrist. The Democratic party could then corner the market for moderates and leave the GOP in the wilderness for decades.

I love the Democratic party. It's a big tent with conservatives, liberals and moderates. We have whites, blacks, latinos and asians. The contrast to the GOP is embarrassing. Yup, I'm proud to be a DEM.

I feel really good about Obama...I think he'll follow in Clinton's footsteps. I think he'll include some moderate Republicans like Lugar and Hagel in his cabinet. Obama at heart is a liberal but his economic team of Clinton-alumni and GSB newbies is center-right and his economic policies are very centrist. Yup, I feel really good about Obama.

But I'm getting ahead of myself...let's work like crazy for the next nine days to ensure that he wins. I'll be volunteering tomorrow with gusto.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Yuck more of this crap.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/videos/2008/oct/22/983/

Everytime you think that McCain has toned down the rhetoric his supports make sure they keep the hate alive.

____________________

johncoz:

Bigmike:
"Palin is trying to salvage whatever she can for her own future. Do you blame her?"

Yes. Disloyalty is not a desirable character trait if you want to build a political future. She actually has a shocking record of putting herself first in all circumstances. If she does somehow survive this debacle, expect to see a lot more of that.

____________________

Bigmike:

When you see me needling some of the far left whackos, don't take it personal. It will be 4 years before I get another chance. Man does not live by issues alone. I think I read that somewhere.

goodnight all

____________________

political_junki:

johncoz:
Yes it does make sense, thanks

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Zogby's site is down. Most likely due to Drudge-lovers flocking to it. I got a look at the post before though...it was 49-44 Obama

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ johncoz:

"She actually has a shocking record of putting herself first in all circumstances."

I agree with you. In the beginning I had high hopes for her when everyone was saying that she was a McCain-type maverick. I thought that she would put an end to the Atwater-Rove era of divisiveness from the GOP. But she has doubled down on the divisiveness with such relish that I'm just flabbergasted.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I will call go ahead and call it right here and now. TIED by Wednesday!!

____________________

Knyght:

I agree with NextAmericanChapter... assuming Obama wins, and even now, that's counting one's chickens a bit. But the lessons of Republican leadership of 2001-2007 should be well learned. Seek inclusion, govern from the center, reach out to the opposition when you can. Not only will it help ensure the Dems dominate the center, but it will provide moderate Republicans with legislative victories they can call their own... helping them reform their party into a centrist-conservative movement instead of the poisonous sludge pit it currently embodies. Debate become more vigorous and healthy, conservatism returns to its more sensible roots, the Dems have a chance of real progress, and maybe in 5 or 10 years we have a national dialogue that does honor to both sides.

That assumes Obama wins, of course. 10 days out and they can't go by quickly enough...

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

Any of us here could be Zogby. Fool around all day and when you get back home at night, just fabricate some numbers and post them online. The guy is a quack.

Gallup LV traditional and Rasmussen remain the gold standard. Take an average of those two and you should get a good conservative estimate of where Obama really is. Right now its 6-7 points. As long as he remains above 4, he's in line for a strong win.

You know, they say that Dems know how to snatch defeat from victory. However, this year the McCain/Palin ticket has just been such a circus that none of the Dem's self-inflicted wounds have caused much damage. Expect more of the same shenanigans this coming week.

____________________

saywhat90:

i wondered if zogby was pro mccain now i know he is based on his statement written with the new polls. and i dont honestly believe that polling dropped 4.1 points in a day nor did i feel that way when it went up to almost 12 points for obama. i think zogby is trying to creat a dramatic race. but we already know the race is no more than 5-6 point for obama.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Of course he is making a dramatic race. Most pollsters dont comment on their numbers like its a political blog. I just wonder how he gets these big swings to work out.

____________________

johncoz:

@saywhat90

No. Zogby is pro John Zogby. End of story.

____________________

Thatcher:

ZOGBY'S NUMBERS MATHEMATICALLY WRONG

By his own description on the polling page:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1611

"McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%."

Note, Zogby states Obama's number for each of the three days of polling in the three-day rolling average.

Now - what is the average of 54%, 50%, 49%???

It's 51% - not 49.4%

And even if Zogby was rounding up and Obama's numbers were really 53.5%, 49.5% and 48.5%? - the the average is 50.5% - again ... not 49.4%.

____________________

Basil:

Sarah Palin freaks me out. I've never seen such a weird combination of attractive and repulsive elements in one politician.

She's a little like a cult leader who's likely to lead her flock over the edge of the abyss, but she's she's such a poor speaker and thinker that, like Dubya, it makes me wonder where the brains are. Maybe Dick Cheney has found a new host organism (which would explain Dubya's near-silence, lately).

To the extent that she's a wacky fundamentalist Christian, there aren't any brains there at all, but maybe that just makes space for the alien parasite.

____________________

Basil:

Sorry, Palin makes me stutter.

____________________

Vokoban:

For everyone who claims Europe loves the GOP because they voted for conservative parties recently, here's a comparison between the German CDU and the GOP

I just state the positions of the CDU to make my point clear:

- The CDU is strictly opposed to death penalty
- The CDU strictly supports "spreading the wealth" via taxes
- The CDU (meanwhile) supports renewable energies
- The CDU major of Hamburg is openly gay
- last time anybody in the CDU called someone "un-German" because he was voting social democratic was probably back in 1972
- The CDU today is a social democratic party based on Christian values. But they have no problem with Darwin. They simply don't see the point why one excludes the other

I didn't vote for them the last 30 years or so. But comparing them to the radical rightwing party GOP does them no justice. A party like the GOP would be observed by our constitutional security organization. The Democrats pretty much would be the right wing of the CDU.

Same holds true for all the other conservative parties in Europe - and probably the rest of the world.

Going back to polling speak: The GOP is an outlier.

FAIL!

____________________

Vokoban:

And I didsn't even start with the differences in social policies, which would make you shout out "socialism" until you turned blue in the face.

Thus only proving you don't have a single clue of the very concept of socialism!

____________________

Basil:

@Vokoban

Good line about the GOP being a security concern. They've gone a long way towards making us less secure already.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Vokoban

Yeah there is a complete lack of perspective here in the U.S. sometimes. It is like we've lost touch with a great big portion of reality.

Not sure when that started (I'm betting 2001) or why it has continued but I'm ready for a change. Christian Dominionism and the ugliness that it perpetuates in the Republican Party(hate politics, racism, us vs them mentality, anti-intellectualism, etc, etc, etc) are really enough to drive a sane person bat****.

It is like living in crazyland where up is down and black is white. I hope that by beating the tar out of the RW-nuts this election will restore some sanity to this country.

____________________

Vokoban:

Dwarf & everybody else

The world would be glad to welcome you back among civilized nations. We Europeans owe your country a lot. It hurts to watch you today.

Like a good friend or a beloved child on really evil drugs.

____________________

ricbrig:

@Vokoban
It is safe to say that Berlusconi in Italy is now the closest admirer of the the GOP. Although they oppose the death penalty they somehow have a lot to share with the GOP. Berlusconi is a close friend of Putin and defined G W Bush, the greatest President in History, just for your record

____________________

Vokoban:

Berlusconi is a criminal who avoided sentencing by creating a law that forbid investigations against politicians who are in power.
Berlusconi also is the most corrupt politician Italy ever had - and that says a lot
Berlusconi is a bad joke nobody in Europe laughs about anymore.

See the parallels?

____________________

Basil:

@Vokoban

One of your countrymen, Thomas Mann, said that any reasonable person should be a moderate socialist.

I might be inclined to agree, depending on your definition of "moderate", but I think you are correct that Americans in general don't have much of a concept of socialism. There's a strong tendency to equate it with communism (and to think that the USSR practiced something resembling communism).

Someone else said that Christianity, like communism, was a good idea that no one had tried yet. I'm sure that's news to Sarah Palin.

____________________

Dana Adini:

early voting in NC 1,192,154 votes cast (more than total early vote in 2004) nearly 33% of total votes cast in 2004

Dems 55.02%
Rep 27.81%
Other 17.17%

applying SUSA distribution by voter ID

Obama 54.81%
McCain 40.13%

get this

23.1% of all reg. Dems have already voted !!

vs. 16.67% for republicans and 14.77% indies

good luck making that up

____________________

Basil:

@Vokoban

Admirer (or relative) of Vladimir Nabokov, by any chance? Sorry, I like word games and once wrongly suspected Dana Adini of being Diana Naiad.

____________________

Vokoban:

Basil,

Hilzoy over at the washingtonmonthly puts it in few words:

"Look: socialism is a word that has a meaning. It means public control of the means of production. It does not mean taxing the top bracket at 39%. Likewise, "collective ownership" has a meaning, and it does not mean the situation that obtains when the government can repeal tax cuts for the top 5% of the population."

The GOP is right to say: socialism doesn't work. That has been proven by history in 1989.
On the other hand: free, unchecked capitalism doesn't work either. That has been proven by history, well, now.

The GOP is lying when they say progressive taxes are socialism. They are not. It's not even socialism when the government owes shares of banks.

I don't know what a moderate socialist is. And though Thomas Mann was a competent author he probably was a quite mediocre economist... (C:

But allowing a government to take the taxes it needs to create the infrastructure, knowledge and social peace a society needs to prosper is not socialism. It's simply clever.

____________________

Vokoban:

@ Basil,

He's the author I have the most ambiguous relationship with. Somewhere between genius and complete asshole.

And he makes up for a great nick name...

____________________

laguna_b:

From Zogby: "Things are trending back for McCain. His numbers are rising and Obama's are dropping on a daily basis. There seems to be a direct correlation between this and McCain talking about the economy," pollster John Zogby said.

McCain talking about the economy? I thought he was bitching about Obama taking a victory lap....sorry, can't but a sudden turnaround of this magnitude for no good reason. Last I checked the DJIA dropped HARD yet again......and McCain supporters can't even draw a straight B on thier faces in the mirror....DUMB!!!

____________________

political_junki:

Dana Adini:
Could you share the link Dana?
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Says only 1,090,000 have voted?

____________________

Basil:

@Dana

Wow! I'd call that synchronicity. As I typed my last insignificant post, I had no idea you were here. Your post appeared after I had entered mine.

Believe me, I haven't mentioned your name since last we communicated here.

Not that it means anything. I'm just a bit stunned.

Congrats on your musical success, by the way. I googled you at your suggestion, and yes, you're way hotter than Diana Naiad.

____________________

laguna_b:

Boomshak must be under sedation ..... I can't believe he isn't here trumpeting the Zogby garbage.

____________________

political_junki:

laguna_b:
Havnt Obama been gaining every day in Gallup and Rass?
Zogby is just doing this because he knows tomorrow all the right wing media will be referencing him for their delusions and he likes the attention and publicity he will get

____________________

Thatcher:

@laguna_b:

Zogby is lying about his tracker ...

ZOGBY'S NUMBERS MATHEMATICALLY WRONG

By his own description on the polling page:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1611

"McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%."

Note, Zogby states Obama's number for each of the three days of polling in the three-day rolling average.

Now - what is the average of 54%, 50%, 49%???

It's 51% - not 49.4%

And even if Zogby was rounding up and Obama's numbers were really 53.5%, 49.5% and 48.5%? - the the average is 50.5% - again ... not 49.4%.

____________________

laguna_b:

@political_junki

I suspect you are right. It makes zero sense that a race that has such a steady beat should suddenly change without a game-changing event. The news cycle is full of ex-McCain people supporting Obama and Diva Palin screeching her BS. That doesn't sound like the stimuli that owuld shift everyone.....DJIA was rollercoaster again Friday with likely drop another 2k points before Nov. 4.....when Ras comes in at least 6 tomorrow the air will clear. Zog will discover another Obama surge to 18 by Wednesday and be back on the front page.

____________________

laguna_b:

@Thatcher

Zogby should be sued for mental distress caused to the planet.....

I did see your earlier analysis and I agree....math is not his strong suit..

____________________

political_junki:

This is from Rass, notice that he says 48% of people ARE CERTAIN they will vote for Obama:
--------------------------------------------
However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. Nine percent (9%) lean one way or the other but could change their mind. The remaining three percent (3%) are either committed to a third party candidate or remain undecided.

____________________

laguna_b:

Boomshak....This is from Rass, notice that he says 48% of people ARE CERTAIN they will vote for Obama

SEE MCAIN BY 52%! ;)

____________________

Dana Adini:

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx04xx2008_Stats.xls

____________________

political_junki:

@laguna_b, Thatcher:
Well, we are obsessive people too. We shouldnt be over reacting here, posting reassuring messages for ourselves this time of night :)

____________________

Dana Adini:

thank you basil

____________________

laguna_b:

Actually I am saad that 40% are still stupid enough to vote Mccain...really what are they not thinking??? This means we can get more than 60% :(

I talked with my sister today in Tx. and she like Palin....I am at a loss to understand that even from someone as naive and unable to reason as my sister.....she still thinks Bush is better than clinton because of the BJ. That was more important to her than Iraq, the deficit and all the incompetence....we live in a delicate democracy....

____________________

laguna_b:

@political_junki

I absolutely KNOW I am obsessive about this election....I need to let it go and check in maybe twice a day....I used to have a life :)
I am looking to Obama to give it back to me Nov. 5

____________________

ricbrig:

Laguna_b

you are not the only one to be obsessed by this elections!
About Zogby, I don't care about his numbers as he say O +10% and, as well, I don't care whn he says O +2%. He just puts too much emphasis on comments not related to the polls facts, as someone said, does he poll real persons?

____________________

Rollin08:

I'm always checking on this site. We need to win this election. At least with these numbers so far can sleep good at night : )

____________________

johncoz:

@Thatcher

I suspect the problem is not Zogby's arithmetic but more something like this. In order to get a daily figure he hasto run all or part of his weighting algorithm over the raw numbers for that day. But that is not how the topline figures are produced (one hopes). For them, the raw figures for the three days are summed, and then the weightings are run.

Of course, I don't really know. But I on the other hand I don't care either. He was just producing a teaser for Drudge to get himself some free publicity. That's Zogby.

@ricbrig

He does poll real people. But the only "advantage" of running with a small daily sample is that you will enounter wide swings that are nothing more than sampling error. If you are an unscrupulous self-promoter you can spin these into newsworthy "facts" for the appropriate audience. Note that real pollsters like Ras and Gallup keep on emphasising the stability of the race, even when their topline numbers move around a fair bit.

____________________

liz from NJ:

After this election, I really do hope that thinking republicans wrestle the control of their party from their intolerant base who wear, like a badge of honor, their contempt for diversity, distain for the discplined pursuit of excellence in mind, and disregard for tolerance as a foundation of a democratic society.

I am not a Dem zealot. Yet, As long as the Repubican party agenda panders to the demands by the despicable base, as far as I am concerned, this country may as well have a single party system, since the Republican party will NEVER be considered worty of my vote.


In voting for the Dem, I am going aginst my own personal, near term, financial interest, but it's the price I am willing to pay.

When I was watching the Repub convention, it struck me that these days, the only time you see any "program" on TV that has near all white cast and audience alike is the Republican convention. Isn't that amazing?

My family is multi-cultural, multi racial, and multi-regligious. I would never consider voting for a party which has such disregard for what I consider the most precious gift this country has to offer: the beauty of diversity!

Now, you thinking and rational Republican majority, reform your party, and give me a REAL two party system.

____________________

Basil:

@Vokoban

I agree about Nabokov (though I remember loving "Ada"), and suspect that Mann had something less definitive in mind when he (wrongly?) used the term "socialism".

When we speak of public ownership of the electromagnetic spectrum (legally the case in the US), there's no implication that the gov't manages what happens on radio and TV. The gov't grants licenses to broadcasters which can be revoked if the broadcaster violates FCC rules, though in practice this rarely happens.

Similarly, corporations are licensed by the gov't (as an agent of the public interest) to perform the functions for which they are formed, and those licenses can also be revoked if the corporations fail to do so.

Ralph Nader, for all his faults, considers federal revocation of corporate licenses an underappreciated penalty which might be invoked to prevent corporate abuse of the public trust. I agree, but the devil is in the details.

None of this is socialism per se, nor is "socialized" medicine, but to call it socialistic makes a certain amount of linguistic sense, particularly in the absence of any advocates of true socialism.

____________________

laguna_b:

@liz from NJ

"
In voting for the Dem, I am going aginst my own personal, near term, financial interest, but it's the price I am willing to pay."

If we do not get a stable, solid intelligent president who can take on the biggest economic disaster since the depression, we will all be too poor to pay taxes, so you are in fact voting (as am I ) our own finacnial advantage. Paying taxes is the result of significant gains...something I look forward to again in the future years. (with Obama)

____________________

Lechuguilla:

For late night owls in U.S. ...

New poll shows Obama up by 15 in the state of New Hampshire.

Lech

____________________

political_junki:

Lech:
Could you share the link?

____________________

Basil:

@laguna

Exactly. Some R's seem utterly incapable of understanding that something that may not be in their immediate interest may be good nonetheless.

They just aren't big-picture people, which I suppose is something economic R's have in common with the religious right.

Fear and avoidance of complexity, resulting in gross oversimplification...

Not that we D's don't have our faults...

____________________

Lechuguilla:

New Hampshire poll ...

[url]http://www.boston.com/news/[/url]

At right side is the relevant link: "For Obama, A New Cause For Confidence ..."

Lech

____________________

liz from NJ:

laguna & basil,

I do agree with both of you. In fact, I tell my children that they reason why I believe in social justice is because of them.

They are the product of prestige. From a very selfish point of you, if anything, it's the previleged class that has all the more interest in keeping the system fair and just SO THAT a dissatisfied minority short changed by the prevailing system does not grow big and hopeless enough to have the incentive to upend the existing system.

Twisted logic? Maybe? Self serving logic, probably. I call it enlightened self interest.

Besides all this, I do want to live in a society with such disregards for the down trodden.

I am not black, but in this election, I am SO excited about casting my vote for the black candidate.

Also, throughout this "Barak Hussein Obama" business, I developed an empathy and a sense of solidarity with the Arab American community. No group should be demonized like this. Now, all the racists and bigots who are no longer allowed to utter the "N" word think it's a fair game to use the word "arab" as a new four letter word.

____________________

Basil:

@liz

Obama Tsunami!

@TheDude

Thanks for the stats. You abide! :-)

____________________

maddiekat:

Good news for Obama with the NH and Iowa results. Zogby is an utter fraud. He is saying that in one week Obama has gone from +3 to +13 back down to +5. This dudes results should not even be displayed on a valid polling site.

____________________

TJIRISH34:

Hey has anyone noticed that any poll that comes out showing McCain cutting into Obama's lead (despite majority polls showing Obama with a 7-10 pt lead). The poll gets huge play in the MSM media? The AP poll showing 44-43 lead and now Zogby showing Obama lead is 5 points: 49-44. I stand by what I wrote before. The MSM is trying to keep interest that this election is close for ratings etc... I don't care what these national polls mean. It's the state polls that matter. Obama is kicking McCain's a__ in those states that matter. McCain whole strategy is now Pennsylvania plus all the up for grab states. It's just like the primary where Hillary fought on. Yet anyone could tell after February that it was a mathematical improbability Hillary could win more delegates. So media focused on these national polls when it's the battleground states that matter. More simply who is on offense and who on defense. Obama in great shape and yet media trying to portray this election as up for grabs. You don't need polls to figure out who is winning. Just look at the 2 campaigns. McCain/Palin staff's bickering and Obama running smooth campaign as ever. The campaign's have their own private polling internals. They know who is winning and who is losing. But I still find it interesting the way the media is looking for any indication that McCain is gaining on Obama.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Don't ever trust Zogby until the weekend before the election. He makes these radical swings to garner attention. Ras and Gallup are far more stable. With early voting as high as it is, we know that things should trend towards stability and not volatility. Unless Zogby understands that the public is becoming more and more informed as more people get more of their information from 24/7 cable and the internet, he'll continue to make a fool of himself and never get to the status of Gallup.

____________________

Paul:

Zogby internals from Sunday Oct 26 contradict his message that McCain is moving, and contain an obvious discrepancy.

First, the disrepancy --- in the west, Zogby has McCain at +0.7. This has to mean that Zogby is oversampling states like Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming relative to California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado (if Zogby considers CO as West).

Each candidate is holding his base at 88%. Obama wins Independents by 13.8. Further, Obama wins moderates by 29.6

McCain leads with males by 3.9 and Obama leads with Females by 14.

McCain's lead with Whites is 52.9 to 40.9. Hisp and AA are as expected with Obama (69.7 and 90.0)

Already voted goes to Obama 57.3 to 39.5

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

I just saw the replay of SNLs latest skit in which they have Michelle and Barack Obama impersonators proclaim that their lead is as solid as a rock. AP is still updating their story on the Alaska NG pipeline, and I couldn't find a news source that refenced Zogby's numbers. Their last poll is DOA and not going to make it into the MSM. The SNL skit was hilarious.

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/obama-address/787181/

____________________

boomshak:

REUTERS ZOGBY POLL SHOWS OBAMA FALLING FROM +12 TO +5 IN 3 DAYS!

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 49.4%, McCain 44.1%

McCain gains as race continues to tighten

UTICA, New York – Republican John McCain continues to gain on Democrat Barack Obama, reducing Obama’s lead to 5.3 points with just over a week to go before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows.

The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday’s report.

“There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go.”

The poll, a three–day rolling average survey of likely voters nationwide, shows that McCain has continued to gain ground among independent voters, though Obama still leads by a 50% to 36% margin, the telephone tracking survey shows.

Obama leads among women, 55% to 41%, while McCain now holds a four–point lead among men. Obama continues to lead among voters of all ages, though he leads by just six-tenths of a point among those age 30 to 49 and nine-tenths of a point among those age 55 to 69. Obama’s lead has narrowed among Catholic voters to 17 points from a 25–point advantage in yesterday’s report. McCain also now leads among Protestant voters who are not evangelical, as he maintains his strong advantage among evangelical voters, 62% to 33%.

CONCLUSION:
John McCain's message regarding giving liberals the "key's to the city" is starting to stick.

"If you liked the last 2 years under Pelosi/Reid, imagine how much you'll enjoy it when they have absolute power?"

That's the message and it is a strong one. It should have been McCain's message all along.

____________________

boomshak:

YOU LIBERALS ARE PATHETIC:

You stand by the BS polls from places like Newsweek that give Democrats a 15 point sampling advantage, but any poll showing the race close is "flawed" and "a bad sample".

I've said it before and I'll say it again. America is a center/right country. The only reason they have been fooled into supporting Obama is that he is pretending to be a moderate while his whole life he has been a far left radical and has surrounded himself with far left radicals. I'm lying? Prove me wrong them.

If McCain can show America how far left this country will lurch with Obama/Pelosi/Reid steering the ship, he can still win this thing.

Barney Frank's comments about "cutting defense spending by 1/4" can't help your cause. Americas DO NOT want to hear that. If McCain is smart, he will use Frank's crazy comments in an ad.

____________________

boomshak:

@TJIRISH34:

The same insane oversampling of Democrats in national polls is happening in state polls too. A recent SUSA poll gave Democrats a 15 point sampling advantage.

My God, no wonder Obama carried the state in their poll! The RCP average is FULL of bullsh*t like that. You clear out the terrible samples and this race is close, very close.

Rasmussen's last two state polls have shown McCain surging in NH and NC.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

Did you catch SNL? Funny, huh?

Solid. Solid as a rock. That's what our lead is. That's what we got got got got got.

____________________

maddiekat:

boom****

You are so out there you are no longer worth commenting to.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Now that NH has come into the strong Obama camp, that's over 270 easy. This week is all about whip cream.

NH:

54-39

Barack Obama has vaulted to a 15-point lead over John McCain in New Hampshire, according to a new Boston Globe poll, a significant gap in a state that McCain considers his second political home and has long been a swing state in the race for the White House.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/26/for_obama_a_new_cause_for_confidence___and_for_caution/

RAS was such a joke last week. Throwing a bone to the repubs.

____________________

bmrKY:

Boom****, you never cease to amaze me.

Like I said the other day:

Zogby sucks. Zogby has always sucked. Zogby will continue to suck into the future. And if a 5 point Obama lead in his sucky poll is somehow a victory for McCain in your eyes, then you suck, too.

Then again, that last part about you sucking is true whether you spin zogby's sucky polling or not. You are just a sad, sad little man, Boom****. Hopefully after Obama trounces McCain you will be able to seek the therapy that you so desperately need.

____________________

boomshak:

ZOGBY THE TREND-SETTER:

During the most recent Obaam surge, Zogby lead the way. He was first. He showed the race turning towards Obama and Rasmussen/Gallup/Hotline followed.

There is a new message out there - unlimited liberal control. THAT Message works and that is why these polls will close until election day.

____________________

Observer:

From the Rasmussen website:

"New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: 39.3% Democrat 33.0% Republican"

That is a smaller gap by 0.4%. Won't make much difference but it is the first narrowing for several weeks. It shows I think that I was right when I said that Rasmussen's weighting is a lagging indicator since it proably represents the moderate gains made by McCain a week ago.

It also in my opinion once again shows that party ID is strongly affected by support for the Dem or Rep candidate. Inputting a party ID target pretty can pretty well decide the results before the polling is done, or at least strongly influence it.

Or at least it does for Rasumssen and probably others as well. As usual Zogby is in a whole different world.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

It's Sunday morning. I'm going to have to got to the 6 PM church service today. I'm going to watch the Sunday talk shows. This what we're talking about:

The civil war breaking out in the Republic party. Is Sarah Palin seceding from the ticket in hopes of running in 2012?

Then, we're going to focus on the disparity between the resources for the McCain campaign and the Obama, and the seemingly superior ground game of Barack Obama.

We'll show how the polls are going in the swing states, and talk about how John McCain can gracefully wind down his campaign. What's his legacy going to be?

We'll spend a few seconds talking about the $150,000 spent on clothes for Gov. Palin, the Alaska pipeline scandal, and Ashley Todd, the McCain volunteer that fasley asserted that an Obama supporter attacked her, because it's been a ridiculously weird week in the Republican world.

Happy Sunday morning all!!!

____________________

boomshak:

I have said from the start, the 800 LB GORILLA IN THE ROOM in this election is UNCHECKED LIBERAL POWER.

You need to go no further than Barney Frank's recent declaration that he will seek to cut defense spending by 1/4 to understand why America doesn't want to "go there".

Only about 12% of Americans in recent polls designate themselves as very liberal. So why would America allow themselves to be government by a very liberal government? It makes no sense.

Especially a very liberal government beholdin to the far-left moonbats over at places like DailyKos.

____________________

whoshotsam:

Observer - what are you talking about? It's an expansion of the Dem ID by .3% to 40% and a contraction of the GOP ID by .2%, to 32.8%.

Precisely the opposite of what you posted.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"That's the message and it is a strong one. It should have been McCain's message all along."

No, it's a defeatist message of last resort for candidates who've failed to persuade people to support them on their own merits. You can't run a whole campaign on the slogan "I know you don't really like me, and don't really want to vote for me; but please don't let the other party win by too much".

____________________

Observer:

whoshotam

You are right. I was reading an old page. Forget what I said. I'll go out and come in again.

____________________

boomshak:

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Shannon, why won't the Sunday morning talk shows be talking about the daily Campaign Finance Fraud being committed by Obama on his website.

Obama has turned off the "AVS" feature which protects against credit card fraud when donations are given. If you donate to Obama, they do NO CHECKS to make sure the name or address you give match the name and address on the credit card. They have "turned off" this feature.

Additionally, Obama's camp has just told the press that "they do not retain credit card numbers", in other words, they have NO WAY of checking on this fraud at a later date.

You can literally go to Obama's site, enter your credit card number and give your name as Adolf Hitler on 1 Fascist Avenue and the donation WILL be accepted. Try doing that on any other website online. Your charges will be rejected. Not on Obama's site.

Also, $60 million of Obama's credit card donations have been in odd numbers like $45.63. Why is that significant? Because since no onw would intentionally give such an odd number, that means that number resulted from a FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION! In other words, Obama is getting money from overseas.

CONCLUSION:
But yes, how much Sarah Palin spends on her clothes is FAR more important that finance fraud.

____________________

boomshak:

THE BS ABOUT THE "CIVIL WAR INSIDE THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN"

This is one of those lovely "unnamed sources have said" stories. Nice reporting their CNN.

Unnamed sources have said "Palin is a diva. She cares bout no one but herself and listens to no one. She is a selfish, conniving she-bitch from hell..."

They refer to comments by "McCain Aides". Ok, WHO? Whe you say "a McCain Aide" do you mean a low-level secretary or someone who works the phone banks.

It's all spin and bullsh*t.

____________________

Observer:

Interesting to see the increased Dem gap by Rasmussen is shown above another article which says:

"Democrats’ Lead Slips in Generic Congressional Ballot" and shows a gap of 6%.

I would have thought that McCain would do better than a generic Republican. Well known candidates generally do better.

Rasmussen's constant inching up of the Dem/Rep gap makes assessing trends from their polling more difficult. I remain of the view that Rasmussen at least gets out the figures he puts in. It doesn't mean he is wrong but if he is it will be despite this, not because of it.

____________________

TheCanadian:

Boom, go ahead and believe the BS Zogby poll. Have you delusions of grandeur. It'll make the fall that much harder on the 4th.

Do you know how unlikely a 1 day 4.5 point swing is in a daily tracking poll is when nothing major has happened?

____________________

TheCanadian:

Boom, the sources the media has access to are obviously lower level than the Obama sources your friend has access to.

____________________

Observer:

"THE BS ABOUT THE "CIVIL WAR INSIDE THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN"

Amen. I have never seen so many lies, many of them disgusting lies as well, told about one person in such a short time. Quite obviously the establishment and their candidate Obama don't want a reformer in Washington.

I read up on the rubbish about the first dozen or so 'revelations' about Palin. They were all complete BS. I have given up reading about this rubbish. If you want to vote Obama then vote Obama, but everybody should give up on the hate please.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

I'll engage you on this because I'm familiar with what's happened with defense spending in recent history. A cut in defense spending is far less impactful than a complete bugetary freeze. When the Bush administration took office, they closed a lot of bases and streamlined many of the functions of our military. There was a lot of planning involved and it went somewhat smoothly. After 9/11, there was a bugetary freeze in spending which is what John McCain is proposing. None of the contracts were renewed and a special process was put in place so that approval had to be given for small extensions to existing contracts that were critical. Many small businesses, Department of Defense subcontractors went out of business during this period. It was devastating. Also, when John McCain talks about getting rid of cost plus contracts he is going to adversely affect these same Department of Defense subcontractors. Only the larger Defense contractors such as Lockheed and Halliburton will be able to meet the requirements to qualify for these contracts. Also, only the larger companies will be able manage costs to compete. After 2 or 3 years of this, when all of their smaller competitors have consolidated or gone out of business, they'll start gaming the system. That's what corporations do. They maximize profits. In this case, the mega corporations are being given a distict advantage.

I'm less concerned about getting rid of cost plus contracts than I am about a complete budgetary freeze. Like I said, the freeze will close the doors of a lot of small businesses that depend upon a consistent stream of revenue from the government and it will send a lot of small business employees to the unemployment line.

Barack Obama wants a larger military. Regardless of what Franks is talking about, under an Obama adminstration defense spending has to go up given his priorities. He's also looking at advancing our weapons technologies.

What's gotten me about the Bush administration is their failure to push NASA. He started talking about sending a manned flight to Mars but didn't lay the ground work or make the investment to make it happen.

Visionaries tend to make more investments in our future. Obama is the visionary. McCain is still talking about controlling government spending which isn't a long term strategy.

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

Boomshak, our pet idiot! I missed you yesterday after you fled, you crap-flinging coward. Good to see you're back! Only nine days until you have to call him "PRESIDENT-ELECT HUSSEIN"!

I responded to you yesterday, and you are spreading the same lies after having been corrected.

An address verification system is NOT default in online cc processing. You're lying by repeating the Republican talking point. There are many cc processors and many validation systems.

Neither does an address verification system demonstrate the legality of a donor, or the legitimacy. What it is is another check against identity theft, just like cvv, signature, swipe, etc.

Address verification is designed to test the legitimacy of the CARD, not the CARD HOLDER.

Stop spreading your lies.

But I'll go further: why would you object to Americans who are working abroad contributing to a candidate for the presidency?

I know people who are working in Europe and the Middle East who used local banks. They are American, and they are voting, and they contribute money to candidates.

It is the legal responsibility of the donor to affirm their eligibility to contribute.

The real check against a donor determined to cheat is post-processing, and you have ZERO evidence that the Obama campaign does not return money during post-processing.

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

Hate Palin? I don't hate Palin. I love her, because the stupidity of the Republicans in first selecting her with no vetting, then celebrating her, now wanting her as the future of the party, will doom them as the Idiot Loser Party for as long as she's a standard-bearer.

The "BS" stories are coming from Republican campaign sources. Don't tell us, the audience, to stop it: we're just watching your house go up in flames. And laughing at you.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

In 2000 $ 2004, Republicans had a huge advantage in money and resources. Whether you or I like it very much, the burden was on McCain to raise the necessary funds to compete. Unless the Chinese government or some other foreign nation was funding a campaign, all is fair in love and war. There has been a enthusiam gap between the Republicans and the Democrats for a while, and the Democrats have the advantage this year. As long as Obama is complying with the law, whether in spirit or not, there's no sense in complaining. Just take it as one more hurdle McCain has to jump because of the past Republican administration.

____________________

maddiekat:

Ras O 52 M 44 McLiars fav rating is now only 50% his lowest yet.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

I'll just add: if people want to break the law and make false donations, that can't be Obama's concern. He can't function as the police officer with regards to this. That's the job of the FEC and he is providing them with the information that is required by law for them to do their jobs.

____________________

mysticlaker:

RAS 52-44

McCain surge?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the fourth straight day Obama has been at 52%, his highest level of support this season (see trends).

Tracking Poll results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available. Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports reviews key polls from the past week to see What They Told Us.

McCain is now viewed favorably by just 50% of voters and unfavorably by 49%. Those are his lowest ratings since the campaign became a two-man race in early June. The figures include just 25% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Republican nominee while 28% hold a Very Unfavorable view.

Obama is viewed favorably by 57%, including 42% with a Very Favorable opinion of the frontrunner (see trends).

____________________

Dana Adini:

Rasmussen

Obama 52
McCain 44

____________________

boomshak:

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Sorry, but that is just rediculous.

There is a system called "AVS" which protects against the very fraud that is taking place on Obama's website.

When you try to pay with a credit card, it checks your name and address against the name and address for the card in the bank's database. If they don't match, the charge is rejected.

DON'T YOU GET IT???!!!
The Obama website HAS TURNED THE AVS PROTECTION OFF! This means that they are intentionally enabling people to commit fraud!

Now how the hell can you say "this is not Obama's fault"? That is like saying it isn't the drug dealer's fault a person takes drugs.

You simply amaze me with your wilfull blindness to this issue.

____________________

boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

Rasmussen will close to within the MOE by election day. He has now had two day in a row at O+8. That means that Obama polled worse yesterday than he did the day before.

Rasmussen always stops a number for a few days before reversing direction.

America will NOT give liberal whackos complete control of our government.

P.S., While Rasmussen shows Obama blowing up nationally, he shows him losing ground in states. Not sure how that works.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

You said it yourself "people to commit fraud". These people are the ones committing the fraud. There are Republicans now that are donating $15 under false names just so they can prove it can be done. They're chosing to commit a crime. It's not up to Obama to stop them. On Obama's website it says whats within the law to do. If people choose to break the law, it's on them.

Obama has to run a winning campaign. That's why he chose not to take the handout from public financing. John McCain chose to do otherwise. There's no sense in complaining about it. Just ask the question: why didn't my guy do that? That's what Democrats have been asking for 8 years.

____________________

Observer:

NashvilleLefty:

I'm sure Palin has enemies in the Republican Party. That's because she's a reformer. You don't beat an incumbent Governor from your own party without making enemies inside your own party. Why should it be a surprise to anybody that part of the party don't want her in Washington. Quite clearly McCain/Palin will be nothing like a third term of GWB.

Much better for the status quo to vote in two party line Democratic Senators. And don't forget: Anybody in the Republian Party who wants to run for President in the future can forget it if McCain/Palin win. That will wrap up the nomination in 2012 and maybe 2016 and 2020 as well.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Boom - your funny.

____________________

boomshak:

@NashvilleLefty:

An address verification system is NOT default in online cc processing. You're lying by repeating the Republican talking point. There are many cc processors and many validation systems.

You complete drooling idiot.

Go to John McCain's website and try to donate money using your credit card and enter the name "Adolf Hitler". Your charge will be rejected.

Go to Amazon and do the same, your charge will be rejected.

Go to any legitimate online store you can think of and do the same. Your charge will be rejected.

Now go to Obama's website and do the same, your charge will be ACCEPTED.

The idea that you would defend this corrupt activity convinces me once again that Obama's core base of support is made of of criminal minds just like his.

____________________

ricbrig:

Boom is back Ras is unchanged..it's nice to have fixed points in life

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

Shak, you weenie, what you call "AVS," as I explained before, is a validation feature that is offered by many cc processing companies.

Your claim that by default address verification is enabled is NOT TRUE.

Your repetition of that claim despite having been corrected is therefore A LIE.

And furthermore, address verification does NOT verify the legality of a donor. What it does is correlate some data (usually zip code) to a bank account.

Since contributions come in from American citizens who live abroad, and therefore have foreign bank accounts, address validation would reject legal contributions. I have friends living in the Middle East and in Europe who have contributed. The responsibility for stating the conditions for donation have been met is on the donor. It would be wrong to reject legal donors based solely on the address of the bank account.

Furthermore, using address verification as a check does NOT stop illegal donations made from US bank accounts, like, for example, Russian nationals associated with the Russian embassy in Washington, who the Republicans solicited for contributions.

Post-processing, not online cc validation, is the way to catch illegal donations. When you have evidence that the Obama campaign has kept and spent money from illegal contributions, then you might have something to say.

For now, you're just a dimwit ranting lunatic. But keep at it! You're a cure for insomnia!

____________________

boomshak:

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas:
@Boomshak

You said it yourself "people to commit fraud". These people are the ones committing the fraud. There are Republicans now that are donating $15 under false names just so they can prove it can be done. They're chosing to commit a crime. It's not up to Obama to stop them. On Obama's website it says whats within the law to do.

You are beyond belief. All Obama has to do to prevent this fraid is turn on his f*cking AVS system. That's it! Flip a f*cking switch. Do what every other legitimate retail site on the f*cking planet does.

But he won't will he?

You are a mindless Obamabot. You truly scare me.

____________________

Vokoban:

boom

"Only about 12% of Americans in recent polls designate themselves as very liberal. So why would America allow themselves to be government by a very liberal government? It makes no sense."

Only 0.3% of Americans in recent polls designate themselves as religious fascists. And yet your country has been run by them since January 2000. And not only didn't it make sense. It killed more than 100.000 of innocent people who couldn't even vote.

So stop whining.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Enough with all that nonsense. Let's get back to the real news of the weekend.

The civil war breaking out amongst the Republicans
$150,000 worth og clothing for Gov. Palin
The Alaska NG pipeline
Ashley Todd
Good poll numbers for Obama


Solid. Solid as a rock. That's what our lead is. That's what we got got got got got.


____________________

licinfl:


1. Read Boom's latest rant that Zogby is the poll du jour

2. Evaluate Boom's previous posts for accuracey

FAIL

NEXT

____________________

boomshak:

@NashvilleLefty:

And furthermore, address verification does NOT verify the legality of a donor. What it does is correlate some data (usually zip code) to a bank account.

My God man, is your brain even functioning?

Whether or not AVS is "turned on by default" or not is not the point. It SHOULD be turned on.

The WAY it prevents finance fraud is that it makes sure one person isn't making 25 contributions under different names and the same credit card. As it is, there is NO way to track this. Obama's own people have said they do not retain credit card numbers.

God help us if our government is left to mind-numbed Obamunists like you. You are a scary, scary person.

____________________

boomshak:

@NashvilleLefty:

How the hell do you "post-process" when you have no names, no addresses and you don't retain the credit card numbers? How do you "post-process" that?

There is NO paper trail. None. Zero. Nada. Zip.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Anchorage Daily News endorses Obama

WTF. Is Christmas early this year?

____________________

ErnieLynch:

From the WAPO

"In a paper outlining those safeguards, provided to The Washington Post, the campaign said it runs twice-daily sweeps of new donations, looking for irregularities. Flagged contributions are manually reviewed by a team of lawyers, then cleared or refunded. Reports of misused credit cards lead to immediate refunds.

In September, according to the campaign, $1.8 million in online contributions was flagged, and $353,000 was refunded. Of the contributions flagged because a foreign address or bank account was involved, 94.1 percent were found to be proper. One-tenth of one percent were marked for refund, and 5.77 percent are still being vetted. "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502302.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008102501857&s_pos=

____________________

Vokoban:

Something completely different: shouldn't the pollster guys invest in a new thread?

This one's full.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

There's no civil war in the Republican party. It's just John McCain and George Bush against the Republican base.

Alakans against McCain -- Anchorage Daily News endorses Obama

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

According to Zogby, in one week Obama has gone from +3 to +12 to +5...in three-day rolling averages!!! Anyone who's taken a basic stats course is having a good chuckle today morning.

Folks, let nutjobs like Boomshak and Drudge get all excited about Zogby and AP. It's like a drowning man grasping at straws.

Actually, this is good news for Obama. The more uncertainty there is about the polls, the better the GOTV effort. I'll be volunteering in NH today afternoon and I got to tell you, the energy in the grassroots is amazing. Especially exciting is the news we are getting from....wait for it....GEORGIA! While Obama and McCain are locked in a full-frontal war in the traditional battleground states, Obama is quietly outflanking McCain in places like Georgia. He did the same thing to Hillary in the primaries. Commander-in-chief material? you betcha!

____________________

ErnieLynch:

More from WaPo

"Under current law, there is also very little policing of small-dollar contributions. The false donations uncovered by news outlets or by rival campaigns have all involved more than $200, because those contributions must be disclosed in published reports. The campaigns are not required to share any information about donors who give less than $200. And they are not required to even keep records of donors who give less than $50 -- they can even give cash."

So Boom, if you give $15 to Obama with your name "IAMA JERK", Obama thanks you and asks that you send another $15 under the name "IAM STUPID"

____________________

AustRyan:

Obama and McCain are Liars! And what seems like a choice has already been decided, Obama for President...

Watch and get shocked on Obama's hiding the truth from us at 4:30 min

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9hdSHE3vWw

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

Shak, I used to work in the industry. Yes, you have to enter billing address in most e-com UI purchase sequences, but that's often capture info, not verification.

Follow-up:

Ha! I just ordered from Amazon using an incorrect billing address and zip. You're full of ****, dude.

____________________

jonny87:

anyone got a link for the countrywide early voting page

____________________

Kile Thomson:

McCain will campaign in Iowa & Ohio today

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

He should have been living in Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Colorado and Florida. Also, he should have been running positive ads in North Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia.

Like Tom Ridge said McCain should have picked him instead of Palin.

Hey, what's done is done. Republicans are just going to have to suck down a little McCain lemonade.

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

Shak, when I went to go to pick up a yard sign for my formerly Republican parents, I contributed $10 cash on site to the campaign.

I had to fill out a form with my info and affirm that I could legally contribute, and that I hadn't donated in excess of the maximum.

I could have LIED, and BROKEN THE LAW, but then it would have been my fault.

The form went straight to campaign date entry.

But keep the bull**** coming!

____________________

boomshak:

BARNEY FRANK TO CUT DEFENSE SPENDING BY 25%

"We don't need all these fancy new weapons..."

- God help us.

"In a meeting with the editorial board of The Standard-Times, Rep. Frank, D-Mass., also called for a 25 percent cut in military spending, saying the Pentagon has to start choosing from its many weapons programs, and that upper-income taxpayers are going to see an increase in what they are asked to pay.

"I was teasing (U.S. Rep.) Jack Murtha (a key supporter of military budgets) and I said to him, 'For the first time, somebody else has got a bill that's almost as big as yours.' We don't need all these fancy new weapons. I think there needs to be additional review."

CONCLUSION:
These "fancy new weapons" are what make us the most powerful nation on earth. You think China and Russia will slow down on the development of "fancy new weapons" just because we do?

So I guess, according to Barney Frank, only our enemies get to have the "fancy new weapons"?

God help us. God save us from these maniacs.

____________________

abraxaf:

Iowa? Jesus, it really is over.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

Why are you getting all worked up about Barney Frank?

That's like me getting worked up about something said by Michele Bachmann or Nancy Pfotenhauer.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

Boomshak is right!!! The media is in the tank for Obama! And all I can say is boo-freaking-hoo!

You see, the folks in the media are afflicted with a need to be rational and sane. They see the circus that is the McCain/Palin campaign and they say "are you kidding me?".

They see the damage done by the GOP over the last eight years and hear McCain propose the same failed economic policies and they say "seriously dude, are freaking kidding me?"

So yes...the media is in the tank for Obama...and damn right they should be. They screwed up in the lead up to the Iraq war, they let themselves be bullied by right-wing nutjobs, and now they are making amends. It's about time.

____________________

[nemesis]:

New Obama ad released. Looks like a very good one too. McCain is floundering around without a chance anyways, but this could cause him even MORE damage.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/new-subject_ad/

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Everyone is in the tank for Obama.

That's why we're talking LANDSLIDE.

Solid. Solid as a rock. That's what our lead is. That's what we got got got got got.

____________________

boomshak:

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Why are you getting all worked up about Barney Frank?

You can't be serious. Do you have any idea who Barney Frank is? He is the Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee!

And I am supposed to be no more concerned about him that some minor Congressman?

Are you insane?

So, so you agree that defense spending should be cut by 25% as he recommends? That we don't need "fancy new weapons", that only our enemies need them?

Do you agree with Frank? Yes or no?

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Sorry guys. I can't help it. That SNL skit was so funny.

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/obama-address/787181/

Solid. Solid as a rock. That's what our lead is. That's what we got got got got got.

____________________

[nemesis]:

"Questioned about his standing, McCain said the race is close and insisted that he's in position "to win it" on Nov. 4."

Ok, this statement alone shows the SENILITY of this man!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

morning all.
sorry to be off-topic, but why the hell aren't the new polls posting on this site when they are accessible via blackberry? there is a technical glitch. whoever has a hotline (get it? to Mark B. (boom?), please notify the authorities.

we now return you to your regularly scheduled Morning Boomshak.
Episode 666:
Back to Stage 2, Anger

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

I'm a pro-life Democrat. I don't have to agree with every Democrat on every issue.

Defense spending is going to go through the roof under an Obama adminstration.

Contrary to popular thought when Republicans talk about cutting government spending they mean cutting defense spending because they're too worried about touching the entitlements like social security and medicare. When Bush took office, the first thing he did was close a bunch of military bases.

Under an Obama administration, missle defense remains, the wars end and recruitment goes up.

Obama isn't going to cut from the defense budget. You and I (people who make more than $250,000) are going to pay higher taxes to make sure that's true. What's more, our money is going to go to building new roads and bridges. What's going to end are the corporate giveaways to the largest companies that end up costing the taxpayers money. The subsidies gained by the big oil companies are gone.

Forget Barney Frank. You and I know the deal. We've lived it through past administrations. If I was a soldier, I'd be pissed that it took Rumsfeld so long to get rolling on the updated armor. He really should have been tried for that.

____________________

Vokoban:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081026/ap_on_el_pr/mccain;_ylt=AjuG7S98z7KmWTSb3QfmBTSyFz4D

"But O dear, O dear, O deary,
When the end comes sad and dreary!
'Tis a dreadful thing to tell
That on McCain & Palin fell!
All they did this book rehearses,
Both in pictures and in verses."

(Not quite "Max & Moritz")
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_and_Moritz

____________________

hou04:

From RAS:

"For polling data released during the week of October 26 to November 1, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated."

YET ANOTHER INCREASE FOR DEMOCRATS, LOSS FOR REPUBLICANS.

____________________

Vokoban:

If the WP hadn't already endorsed BO, this would seal the deal:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302984.html

Can anyone imagine McCain doing what is described in this article?

____________________

boomshak:

WHY ALL THE POLLS CAN BE WRONG:

It's simple. Look at this quote from Newsweek:

"But the deeper failure of the polling came from methodology that could not properly account for the nine in 10 voters who won't answer a polltaker's questions. With ceaseless robo-calls and as many as 15 live calls from campaigns to each household in a swing state, even fewer people than normal took time in the last two weeks to respond. Who were the voters slamming down the phone? Disproportionately for McCain. In rebuffing pollsters, they skewed the sample toward Obama, inflating his "support."

ASK YOURSELF:
If a pollster called you around dinnertime after a busy day, would you give them 30 minutes to answer some questions?

I wouldn't. However, if you were an "Obama Activist" you might. This alone skews polling towards Obama whose followers tend to be more activist than McCain's.

9 out of 10 people called by pollsters reject the call. That tells you something - that these polls may have anatural Obama bias and he may not be doing nearly as well as would appear.

____________________

boomshack:

OK guys. This is BIG. Seriously.
I know a guy who has a friend who know this other guy who was an electrical engineering major at Purdue. And he explained to this other guy, not the first guy, but the other guy how the polling works.

read carefully:

They RANDOMLY select a large group of people who will be used for polling. It’s like a HUGE focus group. The group has equal number of Republicans, Democrats and Independents. Then each pollster selects their sample size according to their needs and budgets. Republicans are of course the priciest group: they earn more money, are busier and so on. Independents are the cheaper. So a pollster comes in and PURCHASES a number of people they want to poll out of that group from THE START according to their budgets.

So a pollster, say Zogby, first purchases the number of Republicans they can afford, then Independents to make the sample realistic, and then just fill in the rest with Democrats, who are FREE. That’s right, FREE.

Wealthier pollsters like Rasmussen and Zogby can afford HUGE sample sizes with lots of Republicans, while the financially struggling (cable competition, market crash) networks and MSM can only afford tiny samples with LOTS of FREE Democrats. See? It’s simple: market at work. The no name pollsters and those who came up with crappy estimates last cycle this year cannot afford the FAIR and BALANCED samples. It’s called competition. It gives the pollsters incentive to self-regulate to be competitive. It’s called CAPITALISM. Look into it, moonbats.

Then they keep polling the SAME PEOPLE in tracking polls. That’s why they are called TRACKING, geniuses!

And the reason why Obama SEEMS to be ahead is then very simple too:
- pollsters are running out of money towards the end, the closer to elections they get and oversample Democrats. We can really see that in what posters like Dana Adini are posting from NC, NV and so on: while the sample size is HUGE (hundreds of thousands), there DEMS are running 2:1 to REPs because they are FREE! And no results because the RESULTS COST MONEY!
- The people being polled in those focus groups get tired of being asked questions all this time for a year and a half for some of them by all these pollsters. They start to bs and make up answers just to have a little fun towards the end of a very long and boring election.

____________________

[nemesis]:

boomshak:

Do you mind posting a link to this Newsweek article for the rest of us to read?

____________________

boomshak:

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas:
@Boomshak

I'm a pro-life Democrat. I don't have to agree with every Democrat on every issue.

Defense spending is going to go through the roof under an Obama adminstration.

Not according to Obama's own words:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7o84PE871BE

"I will slow our development of future combat systems..."

Barack's own words. Scary. Impossible to refute.

What do you have to say now?

____________________

boomshak:
____________________

zotz:

boom-
A lesson from ancient history is in order here. When the emperor Hadrian saw that the empire was overextended and the legions were stressed to the breaking point he withdrew Roman forces from Mesopotamia AND THE EMPIRE GOT STRONGER!

Even McCain recognized the waste in the Defence Dept. Every new weapon is not sacrosanct. Misplaced priorities have killed US troops that had to fight the Iraq war with inadequate Humvees and body armor. Obama, unlike Bush and McCain, will put troops first not the Defence industry.

____________________

sunnymi:


McCain's net favorability numbers step into neutral tending negative territory on Rasmussen

These are the worst ever numbers for him on the Rasmussen tracker. If you just consider the 'very' favorable/unfavorable numbers he is already in the negative territory.

On the contrary Obama is almost near his highs as far as favorability is concerned.

Last night's polling must have had yielded a double figure margin betwen the two candidates. If Obama has another good night (even if it is not as good as last night) expect either Obama to touch 53 for tomorrow's tracker or the margin to go up to 9 (may be even 10).

____________________

[nemesis]:

I think you missed the title of that article...

"Why McCain Won
Snatching Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory: How That Scenario Could (But Likely Won't) Play Out."

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

boomshak:
WHY ALL THE POLLS CAN BE WRONG:

It's simple. Look at this quote from Newsweek:

"But the deeper failure of the polling came from methodology that could not properly account for the nine in 10 voters who won't answer a polltaker's questions. With ceaseless robo-calls and as many as 15 live calls from campaigns to each household in a swing state, even fewer people than normal took time in the last two weeks to respond. Who were the voters slamming down the phone? Disproportionately for McCain. In rebuffing pollsters, they skewed the sample toward Obama, inflating his "support."

So, if these people were "slamming down the phones" and refusing to answer pollster questions, how would anyone know they are McCain supporters? They slammed down the phone and didn't answer questions - just assuming the particularly angry people are for McCain perhaps?

____________________

[nemesis]:

I'll be back later folks, I'm off to church.

____________________

boomshak:

@zotz:

Simple question: Will China and Russia slow THEIR development of new weapon systems?

Obama, in his own words, has declared that "I will slow our development of future combat systems..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7o84PE871BE

____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, PPP had a different take regarding whose supporters were easier to reach. I posted an article in this regard a few days back....as per you both are liberal leaning so I wonder where the discrepancy comes in!

____________________

boomshak:

Can there be any doubt that Obama agrees with Barney Frank on defense given his own words?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7o84PE871BE

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

I suspect someone needs to revisit that article. Sure, polls CAN be wrong, but its beyond unlikely that 95-98% of all polls for the past month and a half are all completely in error. But keep up the faith.

____________________

boomshak:

PPP is a democrat pollster. You are aware of that right?

____________________

boomshack:

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

"So, if these people were "slamming down the phones" and refusing to answer pollster questions, how would anyone know they are McCain supporters? They slammed down the phone and didn't answer questions - just assuming the particularly angry people are for McCain perhaps?"

Look, I JUST EXPLAINED how polling works. If that's not enough, how about the old Italian saying the fish rots from the head. What does that tell you? Wait... take that back, that's not quite right. But you get the point. People are generally angry, and the McCain supporters are the angriest yet, just look at this message board. So, there you go.

____________________

boomshack:

McCain is simply brilliant on Meet the Press with Tom Brokaw. He OWNS him. Very poised, eloquent and reasoned. Very nuanced responses.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

There are caveats to these statements just as there are caveats to the statements that John McCain made about defense and social security. There are caveats to what Obama said about NAFTA, and about talking with the leaders of our adversaries.

When John McCain is talking to the NRA, he doesn't tell them he's for a ban on automatic selling automatic machine guns. When he's talking to big business, he says I'm fundamentally a deregulator.

Here is where Obama stands on missle defense:

http://origin.barackobama.com/issues/defense

National Missile Defense: An Obama-Biden administration will support missile defense, but ensure that it is developed in a way that is pragmatic and cost-effective; and, most importantly, does not divert resources from other national security priorities until we are positive the technology will protect the American public.

It doesn't sound like its going anywhere. I'm not affiliated with the Obama campaign so I can't speak to what they will or will not do. I can only speak to what I believe is likely to happen. It may not be deployed in the areas that we have committed to deploying it -- like Poland. Perhaps, he's looking at the issues relating to negotiations with other countries. My guess is that he wants the flexibility to take this initiative in a direction thats different than the Bush administration. He's probably going to take it in the same direction that Clinton was taking it.

I'm not worried about Obama's plan for defense. It sounds solid to me and his judgement sounds good.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshack

McCain is about as nuanced as Barack Obama is old: NOT VERY.

I watch MTP. Nothing new. All politics are local. With 9 days to go, the only way for him to beat Obama is to be more specific than Obama at the local level. He has to lay out publicly how he's going to help areas like Michigan create new jobs. Tax cuts and tax credits are going to cut it. He was specifically asked about giving the auto makers another 15 billion dollars. Why didn't he lay down conditions that would encourage job growth and new technologies? He had an opportunity to even speak to the unions. He's clueless as to how to speak to the American people.

All politics are local and for McCain to win this thing he has to start fighting door to door. The time for shock and awe is over. Joe the Plumber, socialism, ideology: throw all that out the window.

I've spoken too much. The morons might catch on.

All politics are local. This is why Obama is winning this campaign and why he is the better candidate.

Did you see Obama's Spanish language ad? Did you see his positive ads in FL and OH?

____________________



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