Pollster.com

Da surge. Da surge.

Mccain surge!!!

drudge THIS!

This is the ten-day graph of the weighted averages for the 3-day trackers.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3001/2986445868_7eb1b0820a_b.jpg

showing that in those 10 days McCain has apparently closed the gap by 1 point. Having watched these trackers for some weeks, my instincts say that we can probably expect a rise in Obama's support over the next few days, since this is what has happened whenever he has touched through that 50% mark.

As a good number rolls in the front, a bad one rolls out the back end, but throughout the fundamental dynamics don't change. This is not a volatile race, and support for Obama has been remarkably solid and consistent over the past month.

Of course pollsters, particularly those seeking to make a splash (eg Zogby), will talk up volatility in the race when all that is really moving is their own figures.

Does that mean McCain is no longer the "Surgin' General"?

McCain Surge Continues... !!!

Good news from Time/CNN poll: O at +12 in PA, +5 in NC (very nice), +4 in OH, and +7 in NV.

The money quota from Zogby..

With less than a week to go, today’s numbers are not a good development for McCain. There is no momentum for him, and the clock is starting to run short. Worse news for McCain today is that Obama hit 50% in the single day of polling, while he dropped back to the low 40s.

Good news from Time/CNN poll: O at +12 in PA, +5 in NC (very nice), +4 in OH, and +7 in NV.

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1854898,00.html

Nice to see this poll this morning :)

On a side note the Obamamercial made me tear up last night. I'll wait all day at the polls to cast my vote for Obama if necessary after watching that!

If I recall correctly, what Boomshak declared a "surge" was correctly identified by numerous comments as Obama's typically lower-than-usual weekend poll numbers.

Congrats to all of you who nailed it.

And Boom - sorry, I know it hurts.

What a week of polling...I am tired.

I still distrust Zogby, but anyday that our resident cherry picking polling "expert" isn't hyping this poll is a great day for all of us.

@johncoz

Your graph is showing a tightening. Is this due to the new trackers as opposed to the averages of Gallup (RV) and Rasmussen(LV) only? Though we can see R2K tighten but not Hotline. These new ones, I have a problem with.

We would get very nervous, as partisan, if Obama dips below 50%.

Hmmm...

Could this be the beginning of the last "Obama Bounce"?

Let's see, the other national polls. I don't trust Zogby, never have, never will.

Rasmussen +5 today. Bank on it.

Watch out for an outlier in PA by Mason Dixon. They said Obama is up by 4 there. Wassup with that?

R2K: Obama remains stable, McCain gains a point.

Well, we know which poll Captain Cherrypicker will be using today to further his agenda.

Indiana O 46- M 45 (rounded)

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081030/NEWS0502/810300379

AP RIPS OBAMA'S INFOMERCIAL CLAIMS!

Obama's prime-time ad skips over budget realities

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081030/D944GOGG0.html

Oct 29, 9:18 PM (ET)

By CALVIN WOODWARD

WASHINGTON (AP) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was less than upfront in his half-hour commercial Wednesday night about the costs of his programs and the crushing budget pressures he would face in office.

Obama's assertion that "I've offered spending cuts above and beyond" the expense of his promises is accepted only by his partisans. His vow to save money by "eliminating programs that don't work" masks his failure throughout the campaign to specify what those programs are - beyond the withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

A sampling of what voters heard in the ad, and what he didn't tell them:

THE SPIN: "That's why my health care plan includes improving information technology, requires coverage for preventive care and pre-existing conditions and lowers health care costs for the typical family by $2,500 a year."

THE FACTS: His plan does not lower premiums by $2,500, or any set amount. Obama hopes that by spending $50 billion over five years on electronic medical records and by improving access to proven disease management programs, among other steps, consumers will end up saving money. He uses an optimistic analysis to suggest cost reductions in national health care spending could amount to the equivalent of $2,500 for a family of four. Many economists are skeptical those savings can be achieved, but even if they are, it's not a certainty that every dollar would be passed on to consumers in the form of lower premiums.

---

THE SPIN: "I also believe every American has a right to affordable health care."

THE FACTS: That belief should not be confused with a guarantee of health coverage for all. He makes no such promise. Obama hinted as much in the ad when he said about the problem of the uninsured: "I want to start doing something about it." He would mandate coverage for children but not adults. His program is aimed at making insurance more affordable by offering the choice of government-subsidized coverage similar to that in a plan for federal employees and other steps, including requiring larger employers to share costs of insuring workers.

---

THE SPIN: "I've offered spending cuts above and beyond their cost."

THE FACTS: Independent analysts say both Obama and Republican John McCain would deepen the deficit. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Obama's policy proposals would add a net $428 billion to the deficit over four years - and that analysis accepts the savings he claims from spending cuts. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, whose other findings have been quoted approvingly by the Obama campaign, says: "Both John McCain and Barack Obama have proposed tax plans that would substantially increase the national debt over the next 10 years." The analysis goes on to say: "Neither candidate's plan would significantly increase economic growth unless offset by spending cuts or tax increases that the campaigns have not specified."

---

THE SPIN: "Here's what I'll do. Cut taxes for every working family making less than $200,000 a year. Give businesses a tax credit for every new employee that they hire right here in the U.S. over the next two years and eliminate tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. Help homeowners who are making a good faith effort to pay their mortgages, by freezing foreclosures for 90 days. And just like after 9-11, we'll provide low-cost loans to help small businesses pay their workers and keep their doors open. "

THE FACTS: His proposals - the tax cuts, the low-cost loans, the $15 billion a year he promises for alternative energy, and more - cost money, and the country could be facing a record $1 trillion deficit next year. Indeed, Obama recently acknowledged - although not in his commercial - that: "The next president will have to scale back his agenda and some of his proposals."

@boomshak (from ABC board):
"Well, once again Zogby goes off the reservation."

Maybe the outlier of which you made so much just got pooped out of his numbers, returning them to some kind of reality.

Remember, boom, this guy has a 38/36 weight for Dem/Rep -- you can hardly get more favourable for your side than that.

But we'll see what the rest of another long day brings :-)

@platanoman

Mason Dixon has been one of the more favorable pollsters to McCain (no spin, just look at their Virginia poll compared to every other Virginia poll). It's no real shock that they only have Obama up 4 in PA. Their last poll in September has Obama up 2 in PA.

Mason Dixon: PA

47-43

no linky yet....

I'm glad a certain somebody knows how to copy and paste articles. Good for you.

Isn't zogby using 04 turnout models and if so doesn't this bode well for Obama?

Good morning Boom!

Zogby uses the what will make me the most money/get me noticed model.

Boom,

if you want to draw attention to favourable reporting for your sided in the horrid MSM, or elsewhere, a link and a money quote will do.

btw this was the only article Sludge could think of to counter the undoubted triumph of the infomercial.

You're in trouble :-)

It appears that the civil war that broke out between McCain's campaign and Palin's campaign is starting to be reflected in a downturn in the polls.

The Zogby poll clearly shows that there are limits to McCain's support and that once again Obama polls above 50%. As long as Obama polls above 50%, McCain faces an uphill battle to convert Obama supporters.

Any poll of PA that doesn't take into account the record turnout that is expected is trash.

DAILYKOS: OBAMA +5

You know, I find it truly amazing that a poll which believes only 26% of the Electorate is Republican can have the race this close, down from a 13 point lead a week ago.

"R2K: Obama remains stable, McCain gains a point.

Well, we know which poll Captain Cherrypicker will be using today to further his agenda."

It looks like its been a pretty stable 50-45 split all week. With 5 days to go, good enough, particularly as I wouldn't be surprised to see a point or two uptick for the infomercial.

It will be funny though to watch the right-wingers trying to now use R2K - of all polls - to prove McCain is closing the gap. :) Zogby is obviously once again in the doghouse.

in Boom's stype
To move from a +5 Obama to a +7 Obama in one day means that there was a HUGE day for Obama in there, maybe a +9 or a +11. McCaindots shoud be very worried.
Tied by next Thursday!

Seriously though, 26% Republicans? How can Obama not be ahead by 15 points in a poll with that sample?

@ctj

Yeah, Zogby only gives the dems a 2 point party ID advantage if I'm not mistaken, as has been discussed on here before. This is why I distrust Zogby. That, and the releasing of all of his poll numbers to Drudge, just so his poll can become relevant again. But that's just my take.

the infomercial made you cry??! oh please. it was an insult to my intelligence and to that of the american people. he filled it with lie after lie to appeal to the uninformed voter. sure, some parts were emotional, but hes taking advantage of the fact that he had some setbacks as a kid. just because some things in your life have been unfortunate and overcoming that doesnt qualify you to be president. wise up shabby

@boom

hush baby...it's going to be okay.

ZOGBY: OBAMA +7

You know, I find it truly amazing that a poll which believes that the Electorate is made up of equal amounts of Democrats and Republican scan have the race this much in Obama's favor.

It's interesting, looking at the Daily Kos how McCain is 'surging' among Reps, who are definitely going back home (surprise surprise) while probably the Socialist narrative has breached a bit in the independents, which probably is a group that includes a bunch of disaffected repubblicans, who are still sensitive to McCain's socialsit attacks.

there.is.no.mccain.surge.

Boomshak:

AP line: His proposals — the tax cuts, the low-cost loans, the $15 billion a year he promises for alternative energy, and more — cost money, and the country could be facing a record $1 trillion deficit next year. Indeed, Obama recently acknowledged — although not in his commercial — that: "The next president will have to scale back his agenda and some of his proposals."

RESPONSE: Yes, AP. Because 8 years and more of absolutely reckless fiscal mismanagement by Republicans and their allies has bankrupted the American treasury and the global economy, some of Obama's promises to help the middle class may have to be delayed or scaled back in part in order not to balloon the federal deficit. I'm glad the AP is being the deficit hawk here--if only we had had a media organization this concerned about government spending in the lead-up to Iraq or the Bush tax cuts! It's so heartening to see the AP find its inner fiscal conservative holding Democrats accountable just a week before the election. After all, late is better than never.

AP: "THE SPIN: "I also believe every American has a right to affordable health care." THE FACTS: That belief should not be confused with a guarantee of health coverage for all. He makes no such promise. Obama hinted as much in the ad when he said about the problem of the uninsured: "I want to start doing something about it." He would mandate coverage for children but not adults. His program is aimed at making insurance more affordable by offering the choice of government-subsidized coverage similar to that in a plan for federal employees and other steps, including requiring larger employers to share costs of insuring workers."

RESPONSE: I didn't hear Obama guarantee health coverage for all. Did anyone else hear that?
Thanks for keeping us honest, AP. Putting words in Obama's mouth and then attacking him for lying about the words you just made up--now that's journalism.

AP Line: "THE SPIN: "We are currently spending $10 billion a month in Iraq, when they have a $79 billion surplus. It seems to me that if we're going to be strong at home as well as strong abroad that we've got to look at bringing that war to a close." These lines in the ad were taken from a debate with McCain.
THE FACTS: Obama was once and very often definitive about getting combat troops out in 16 months (At times during the primaries, he promised to do so within a year). More recently, without backing away explicitly from the 16-month withdrawal pledge, he has talked of the need for flexibility. In the primaries, it would have been a jarring departure for him to have said merely that "we've got to look at" ending the war. As for Iraq's surplus, it's true that Iraq could end up with a surplus that large, but that hasn't happened yet."

Obama says we've got to "look at bringing that war to a close." This is not an explicit repudiation of 16-months (even AP admitted this).

Much of this is taken from the DailyKos

Bad, bad, bad boy this Zogby :-)

@smith: quote 'he filled it with lie after lie to appeal to the uninformed voter. sure, some parts were emotional'

Now I know...it worked!

We are painting NC blue? I knew that by this fall my blue living room would be very much in style!
Tuesday day = GPTV for Obama! WORK HARD!
Tuesday night = party time! PLAY HARD!

Ok, everyone I heard something. I heard that dailykos is making the race look this close to motivate the DEMOCRATIC base. I heard this from a friend on NEWSMAX!!!! Wait till you see this in the MSM.

@ Boom ah just stick it with the 26% Rep crap in the DKos poll .. they only have 35% Dem as well which is also way to low. Its the difference +9 Dem which is on the higher side of the spectrum but not far off from Ras.

----- BREAKING NEWS ----------

I just caught some guy stealing my McCain/Palin yard sign. When confronted, he turned out to be on the national McCain campaign. He told me there is a grassroots drive to collect and ship all the McCain yard signs to Arizona to shore up that state. "see," he said, "I left your handmade Palin/Romney sign alone; I just took the McCain one because at a time like this, he really needs it."

Makes sense. FINALLY a smart strategy from the Maverick. I urge all of McCain supporters to mail your McCain yard signs to his campaign headquarters in Arizona ASAP by FedEx.

@ricbrig:
Agreed! Rethugs will spend the best of two remaining days attacking the Obama infomercial (which I thought was well crafted) and then.. wednesday morning.. will say .. WHAT HAPPENED?
Don't you love that old GOP-DEER-IN-THE-HEADLIGHTS look?

@mysticlaker

The Selzer poll in Indiana is as significant as any one poll can be based on on Nate Silver's poll rating of Selzer.

A deadheat and 1 in 5 may change their mind still!

Look, I know McCain is behind, but give him some credit. In a poll that has 9% more dems he is only doen 5. I don't think anyone thought he would be this close with a week to go. I am a McCain supporter and don't know if he can comeback or not, but he is fighting an uphill battle here.

It's official: dailyKos is my new favorite pollster. It's a statistical dead heat. Dead tie by Sunday.

Even Andrea Mitchell and Chuck Todd seemed embarassed about the nbc/mason dixon numbers in PA. Only Scarborough hyped those numbers. We'll see if any of the other polls confirm this movement, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Today's chance of McCain winning @ 538 is 4.3%, up from 3.8% yesterday.
THERE'S YOUR SURGE!

@boomshak:

The r2k republican split is low, but their partisan margin isn't that low - 9% vs Rasmussen 7.2%. You keep hanging your hope on this, but it's a false hope.

In any case, the crucial states aren't moving McCain's way in the polls - if anything the reverse. McCain is possibly picking up a bit of extra support in states where it just doesn't matter.

@true....

all credibility has been lost as we see the republicans cherry pick polls on this board. I am not saying you've done this, but the point is to ridicule the process.

None of us really know why certain polls are up by 10, up by 7, up by 5, up by 12 in one week except that there is a lot of randomness in polling, which is why you look for you trends with statisitics...The trend is that McCain has made up 1-1.5 points nationally in the last week, and not made good enough inroads in the states that matter.

Cherry picking national polls at this point is really silly. I would be very worried if we were seeing some 3-5 point changes in the state polls this week, but we have not. It's all stable.

Likely, what is happening is soft support is firming up. Independent Republicans have come home, Independent Democrats have not.

When does the damn Morning Call tracker get put out? Seems that the CNN poll is more in line with recent numbers. It'd be good to have that confirmed.

How does Todd Palin kiss that mouth?

Now that is a function tie if ever I saw one.

@boomshak

odd how you always say that every poll you don't like only sampled 26% republicans. really? everytime? 26%? if you're going to make **** up try and make it sound realistic. i didn't see where it showed zogby sampled only 26%.

On a totally seperate note, how awesome was last night...I say 2-3 point national uptick from it! It was just great.

I teared up. My wife laughed at me :)

RAS M+1 Incredible!!!

Maybe the pundits should be reminded that NBC/Mason-Dixon had Obama up by only 2 in their last PA poll.

Throw out the +12s and +2s and PA is probably somewhere around O+5-6.

@boomshack:

----- BREAKING NEWS ----------

Wow, now I have proof that you don't believe what you say. That has to be the saddest news to ever come out of a campaign.

Thanks.

It was a joke I did it for boom!

R2K is a bit dissapointing but Rasmussen is the money poll to watch for today, does it stay at 50-47, close to 49-48, expand to 50-46? Stay tuned kids! Gallup and ABC were the ones who showed an uptick for Obama yesterday first. Hopefully that speech will give him another point or two in the polls by Tuesday.

Believe, now everybody and their grandma is going to poll PA, at least "uncle" Ras' will. If Mason-Dixon numbers are for real, other pollsters will come up with similar numbers. If M-D messed up, other pollsters will confirm it :-)

@ricbrig,

Did you enjoy that? Quite impossible. McCain will have to poll REALLY Well just to kep it a 3 or 4 point margin.

AP RIPS OBAMA'S INFOMERCIAL CLAIMS!

What more proof do we need of socialist media bias?

Obama's infomercial is getting terrible reviews.

@true...from whom...what links?

@WhereisMitt

Yeah, but you would have to throw out a lot of numbers if you threw out all the +12s for Obama in PA. LOL.

But seriously, I would say right now that Obama wins PA by mid to high single digits, similar to what I predict the national popular vote percentage will probably look like.

Ras is not tightening or it would be up on Drudge already ... developing .. siren etc.

my guess O+4

A new ethics complaint against Palin:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081030/ap_on_el_pr/palin_ethics_complaint;_ylt=AjVtLgdNfW_vvfAJIA.Tz29p24cA

That "whack job" can blame the RNC all she wants for spending $150,000 on clothing.

But, what is she going to say about billing the tax payers of Alaska $21,000 for travel and expensive hotel stays for her kids?

There is an interesting report of the americans abroad in germany. According to a member of The American Club none of the republicans here want to support McCain and refuse to give a public comment of the republican candidate. The american democrats in germany are very enthusiastic in supporting Obama.

It seems pretty obvious from looking at the various tracking polls that the race is essentially stable at Obama +5 (minimum) to +7 (max). A little variation among the trackers, but they are all beginning to converge on this range, including Kos (and I suspect Ras will end up there today or tomorrow). No meaningful McCain surge beyond bringing home some soft R support. Unless Iran explodes a nuke in the next 4 days, O victory, probably 52-47, and 350+ EV's.

Probably see a little bump from Obama for the infomercial, but not a lot - there just aren't that many true undecideds left.

It's going to be fun watching Fox News on Tuesday.

John C.

Here are some reviews of the informerical:

http://www.politico.com/arena/

@deeproy

boomshack is someone making fun of boomshak

Didn't Mason-Dixon only have Obama up +2 in their last PA poll?

@mac_1103

"socialist media bias"

What an idiot. You don't even know what a socialist is, and now you're mashing right wing talking points together. Take a government class, you communist "whack job".

@BUS

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg tracking poll in PA is:

O: 54
M: 41

Breaking!!!!!!

I found the mason-dixon pollster from PA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo

Obama is Surging!!!!!!!! It will take more than 1 Pennsylvania poll showin McCain down +4 to convince me that it is close! What is that 1 out of 30 polls?

Yeah, it's getting terrible reviews... from conservatives. I'm waiting with baited breath to hear Elizabeth Hasselbecks take on this today. My World just revolves around what conservative pundits think.

Only in America is trying to encourge people to vote, as well as discussing real problems of everday people considered "terrible."

@mysticlaker

That was a classic video. Funny.

My prediction for Rassmussen today is 51-46. A huge McCain night just rolled off for them (the one that showed the 3 point jump).

Bad breaking news:

United States Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Third Quarter

It's official. A recession.

Of course, you know the Rass poll is bad news for McCain or else it would be a headline at Drudge.

Guys don't put all your eggs in one single pollster's basket. If Mason-Dixon numbers are true, other pollsters will show it as well. Let me tell you, thanks to these numbers all pollsters in the country will poll PA :-)

*Isn't funny McCain numbers in AZ. I honestly didn't believe it at the beginnig, but there have being too many polls with similar numbers that it is hard to ignore it, coupled with McCain robocalls in the state. That is real news to me :-)

Angus Mc:
@
Of course, you know the Rass poll is bad news for McCain or else it would be a headline at Drudge.

Let's not get cocky - I'm prepared for the same as yesterday, O+3. But I hope you're right!

What I don't undestand is why Obama isn't in Georgia if he is going to add a state? It's polling much closer to AZ....Maybe he just wants it to run it's course, and not motivate republicans and use his ground game and advertising?

Just got an unofficial posting on another site from a Rassmussen premium member. Remember, this is *unconfirmed*.

Obama:51
McCain:45

Correction
51-46. Typo!

From looking at Drudge front page, no shocker poll from Rasmussen report today or other polls.

@mysticlaker:
"What I don't undestand is why Obama isn't in Georgia if he is going to add a state? "

Well he only has so many days left, and needs to schedule is time wisely. He already has this locked up with "blue states". But McCain is working feverishly to rip some of those away from him. I'd much rather see him continue to solidify his light-blue states as a firewall rather than go for yellows, at this point.

Great to see the race stabilizing now! Polls will continue to show that McCain is in deep trouble! Right now Obama has what he needs! He has so many big red states in play right now that he is like a kid in a candy store!

@mysticlaker:

Bad breaking news:

United States Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Third Quarter

It's official. A recession.

You STUPID liberal f*ck. One quarter of negative GDP is NOT a recession! That requires 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Where the hell did you go to school?

Plus, the futures re up 350 points on this. Why? Because the market though the number would be worse, much, much worse. .3% is a TINY contraction.

Compare this to the previous quarter where we had a 2.8% EXPANSION. As a matter of fact, once they adjust the numbers later (as they alwasy do), this coudl quite possibly an expansion as well.

@Dan...But there is talk about him going to Az....Rumours only. It may be a ploy to get McCain back there by Monday maybe.

mysticlaker:
".But there is talk about him going to Az....Rumours only. It may be a ploy to get McCain back there by Monday maybe."

really? If that's the case, it might be to get McCain to divert his resources there rather than PA? I dunno.

The reason McCain is doing poorly in AZ is HISPANICS. AZ has a healthy % of latinos, and McCain is doing poorly among them, even in his home state.

@boom

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

"A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. The U.S. based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[1] A sustained recession may become a depression.

American newspapers often quote the rule of thumb that a recession occurs when real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is negative for two or more consecutive quarters. This measure fails to register several official (NBER defined) US recessions.[2]"

Hush now boom...It'll be okay.

Dartmouth...Thank you very much. Go Green!

Exxon posts quarterly profits record, $14.83 billion.

If that's what they made, how much did the Saudis make?

TV'S TOP AD STARS PAN OBAMA COMMERCIAL

http://www.nypost.com/seven/10302008/news/politics/tvs_top_ad_stars_pan_bam_135962.htm

By SALLY GOLDENBERG
Posted: 3:56 am
October 30, 2008

Two leading infomercial stars agree: Barack Obama's half-hour self-promotion last night was a flop.

"I don't see enough smiling. Doom and gloom totally," said Anthony Sullivan, one of the biggest names in infomercial history.

"I feel depressed right now," added Sullivan, an Englishman famous for his infomercials touting the Swivel Sweeper and Smart Chopper. The only thing saving Obama, Sullivan said, was when the candidate appeared live at the end speaking at a rally in Florida.

"I think it needed it. I was about to throw myself through a window because it was depressing," Sullivan said.

He and AJ Khubani, who has produced infomercials for 25 years, said Obama also fell short of offering solutions to the dire problems he laid out.

"I didn't see a payoff. Classic infomercial is you show the before and you show the after. I didn't see the music or the crashing waves of the Pacific," Sullivan said.

He joked the producer "needs a spanking" for lacking optimism.

Khubani said: "Every infomercial lays out common problems, whether it's a flabby belly or acne, and then it gives a solution. In this case the solution is Obama."

But Obama didn't pitch the product - himself - convincingly enough, he argued.

"We always spend much more time on the solution than the problem and he did the opposite," Khubani added.

HAHA boom: nypost!!!

The New York Post? OK :-)

@Boomshak

Who the hell is Anthony Sullivan? Who the hell is AJ Khubani?

Don't you and your communist "whack job" buddies need to worry about the execution of your own campaign?

House Republican Shays is yet ANOTHER conservative voice that says that McCain's campaign is terrible:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/30/shays-takes-swipe-at-mccain-2/

@shaky

"Compare this to the previous quarter where we had a 2.8% EXPANSION. As a matter of fact, once they adjust the numbers later (as they alwasy do), this coudl quite possibly an expansion as well."

Shak, the +2.8% figure from Q2 was ANNUALIZED. Comparing it to -0.3% in Q3 is flat out wrong.

That Q2 figure (+0.7%) was a good number, but was due to a trade imbalance that favored exports greatly due to a very, very weak dollar, and to the economic stimulus checks. Those factors do not exist now.

What you really seem to be advocating by trumpeting the Q2 numbers is two things: (1) an increase in US-based manufacturing jobs, and (2) Keynesian countercyclical spending. You should look at barackobama.com: he advocates that approach PRECISELY.

Boomshak, you're an Obama voter and you didn't know it! Congratulations for coming to your senses!

So, is it oficial? Is "uncle" Ras' on the "bad" kid list? Bad, bad, bad kid :-)

Wait a minute, didn't "PapaBear" Bill O. say that today's "uncle" Ras' numbers will be good for McMaverick? Don't tell me that "PapaBear" wasn't telling the truth :-)

So, is Billy Mays, the OxyClean guy, going come out and say that Obama didn't shout into the camera enough?

What a joke!

smith4pres23:
"the infomercial made you cry??! oh please. it was an insult to my intelligence and to that of the american people. he filled it with lie after lie to appeal to the uninformed voter."

What is it about wingnuts, neocons, and Republicans that make them want to live in their fantasy worlds. What makes them be filled with such hate, such contempt for themselves and for everyone else -- and so susceptible to Fox news propaganda?

Where almost everyone else saw in the Obama informercial: beauty, sensitivity, realism, optimism and, probably most importantly, the spirit to overcome serious problems, a-holes like Smith4pres23 saw only the vile nastiness that resides within himself or herself.

That's going to be the difference in an Obama America. The majority of Americans -- who have been and are voting for Obama-Biden -- are going to be spending the next 8 yrs building this country back up to where it should be -- and where it could have been if W Bush and the Supremes hadn't stolen the Florida vote in 2000.

By comparison, the scumbucket trolls like Smith4pres23 will be walking around aimlessly like zombies repeating their Fox news mantras that consist of either false, phony info or outright lies.

I come to this website to read the comments of people interested in both the polls themselves, and the facts & political trends behind what the polls are saying.

Most of the comments here -- yes even those of the clown boomshak or boomwhacker, or whatever it is that he calls himself -- are at least within the boundary of somewhat intelligent discussion. Not so those of smith4pres23 above.

Here's your Ras for today..

Thursday, October 30, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisement
After showing the candidates just three points apart yesterday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Thursday returns to the range that has defined the race for over a month. It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%.

Sorry Billo.. you're talking out your ass again.

Regarding the infomercial pans. I think those who had negative views of it misunderstood its purposes and effect. It dominates at least one day's headlines. It humanizes Obama for those who thought he was cold, especially because he chose to tell his agenda through the eyes of hard-put working class people that McCain is trying to claim as his own. And the humanization insulates him somewhat from the b.s. terrorist/socialist claims of the McCain camp (as though a socialist could not be a warm human being). By those measures, the infomercial was a wild success.

Zogby internals of note - Thursday Oct. 30

West Region - Obama 53.5, McCain 43.0
Holding base: Obama 84.2, McCain 84.7
Independents: Obama 51.6, McCain 33.3
Already voted: Obama 53.7, McCain 41.3
Males: Obama 48.7, McCain 44.4
Females: Obama 51.5, McCain 42.3
Whites: McCain 50.6, Obama 42.6
Hispanic: Obama 65.3, McCain 30.1
AA: Obama 90.9, McCain 5.9
Moderates: Obama 65.4,McCain 26.3