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US: Obama 50, McCain 44 (Daily Kos 10/26-28)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/26-28, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 44

 

Comments
iVote:

Rasmussen only O +3? This is not good news, guys.

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mysticlaker:

Drudge has Ras already O+3...

My guess 50-47, which is high water mark for McCain.

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boomshak:

Oh man. Single day polling, 50-45. Ouch!

And this from a poll with a 26% Republican sample! With a realistic sample, this poll is tied.

Lots of moonbats getting a bit nervous when their own poll shows how close this is. It's not gonna be pretty over at DailyKos today. You should have seen them freaking over the Gallup Poll.

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BarackO'Clinton:

I love that boomshak completely ignores the state polls. LOL poor guy

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ricbrig:

O +3 in RAs is not really a good thing, although I'm not sweating

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BrookLynda:

AP-GfK swing state poll just released. Pretty devastating news for Gramps and Whack-job.

Sorry, Boom.

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mac7396:

Boomshak, I've got great news! Your favorite pollster AP has 8 polls out this morning, showing Obama leads in all 8 battleground states. You are an Obama supporter right? However, if you're a McCain supporter, this is terrible news.

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jamesia:

It's expected that McCain will regain his support. What should make people nervous is if Obama's take drops, which it has not. Obama has been polling at consistently 49-52% for at least a month now.

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boomshak:

The Rasmussen move to +3 was to be expected. Coming off two days at +5, McCain has probably been polling at tied or -1 to Obama yesterday.

It's not just that the polls are closing that you need to worry about, it's WHY the polls are closing.

One word. Socialism. Also, Americans don't like one-party rule. Especially not one-party socialist rule.

I TOLD YOU SO:
I told you a week ago that I have a friend who has a friend inside the Obama Campaign. I said they were freaking out because their internal numbers were showing this MUCH closer than the national polls. No one believed me, but now you are starting to see it.

MOMENTUM:
The problme for Obama here is not just that hsi lead is shrinking, but that McCain has all the momentum going into the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter.

Obama was ahead by a touchdown, but he just fumbled on his own two yard line and McCain took it in for a score. To make matters worse, Obama fumbled the ensuing kickoff and McCain is at his 20.

If people sense the momentum to McCain, he may get some bandwagoning.

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AJ:

Rassmusen must have had a huge day for McCain 2 days ago, to drop from O +8 to O +5. Today is most likely a drop of a good day and stabilizing at 4-5 which is certainly a drop, but still plenty to win with.

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Kjartan:

There is no significiant change of Obama support. He is at 50 so who cares. The Europeans will be happy to see that the next president of the US is no right wing evangelical. I think Obama represents the real american values of liberty and tolerance.

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boomshak:

What you guys have to realize is that after 2 days at Obama +5, Obama didn't poll +3 on Rasmussen yesterday, he polled worse, probably +1. That well within the MOE.

So Obama, according to Rasmussen, is now in a dead heat nationally with McCain. Which of you expected THAT 2 weeks ago?

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republican4voldemort:

mccains a wuss

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Kjartan:

Btw: I want to thank McCain for his VP choice...many friends of mine and I had much fun with her interviews, parodies, SNL and Hustler. :)))

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BrookLynda:

Uhhhmmm, Boom? Prez is not elected by national popular vote.

The AP swing-state poll? Seen it? Please spin that one away for us.

We're waiting....

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oicu:

@boomshak:

suuure, you have a friend in the Obama campaign. Suuure you do. NAME HIM. NAME YOUR UNNAMED SOURCE.

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republican4voldemort:

you too boomworm have proven ineffective

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AJ:

@ boomshak
Your analysis forgets the fact that Obama's numbers are generally not dropping, but some of the undecideds are claiming that they will vote for McCain. My feeling is that this tightening was expected and it's a great news for Obama campaign, as it will get out the vote and energise his support.
McCain is certainly spiking, but it must be a huge concern for him that his highest number is 45-46%.

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mysticlaker:

Honestly boom, a lot of people expected it. There are going to be a lot of polls out today so much will be revealed.

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jamesia:

boomshak:

I don't think you're being realistic. No one expected Obama to win with some obscene lead, like 54-44. McCain is simply shoring up some of his own supporters he previously lost. Unfortunately, Obama's support has always been stronger and more stable.

Frankly, the supporters McCain is shoring up might be from red states, where he would have won anyway. For instance, if McCain somehow extends his lead in AZ, there will be a noticeable change in the national poll too. But it wouldn't matter, because Obama doesn't need AZ.

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oicu:

BTW, the Obama campaign are not freaking out. That's not their style. "No drama Obama" is the mantra. They are making sure that nobody relaxes.

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slegend:

Again, all the legit stat analysts - not bloggers - are showing the results to be 51% to 48% - a 3% win for Obama nationally - with Obama winning by 6-8% in key Bush states from 2004.

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jamesia:

Everyone has been expecting a close race with the national vote. It is definitely expected. A closer EV race is not expected though. Take a look at the Pollster map or RCP map. The EV race (the one that actually matters) is not close, and will definitely never be close.

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boomshak:

State polls typically lag national polls by a week.

Folks, even the ultra-slow moving Rasmussen has Obaam losing 5 points of his lead to McCain in a week.

Also, I think there is high likelihood that Obama's one-day polling was below 50% on Rasmussen yesterday as it was of DailyKos (49%).

EARLY VOTING:
The people that went out and voted early for Obama likely would have voted for him no matter what, so I don't think that makes much difference.

The Obama Campaign better bus a whole lot of fake homeless people into Ohio on Nov 4th if they want to save this.

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bmrKY:

I heard the AP State Polls released a Special Message to BoomSHAT and the other DrudgeHeads:

Dear Boom,
If you enjoyed our national poll, then you will LOVE our state polls.

PS: NEOCONS, you just got PUNK'd!

Signed
The AP

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ricbrig:

State polls typically lag national polls by a week.

Can you exaplin please? Did you read the dates of the interview on AP polls today?

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mysticlaker:

New Quinn Polls:

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53, McCain 41
OHIO: Obama 51, McCain 42
FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 45

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1224

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paradski:

Mcain's ceiling appears to be 45. Zogby, even with his rediculous even Party ID split can't get him over that, so even if the undecideds break more in his favor he is still looking at 48% nationaly max.

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angrytoxicologist:

boom,
great. good to hear your man will be down by 3% on Nov 5th. Oh wait, he'll just be down by then.

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zoot:

Boomshak, every time I begin to think that you're an intelligent guy who just looks at the world a little differently, you come up with something like that last business about homeless people that convinces me you're just a mean ****.

On a more central topic - and I'm sure this as been answered elsewhere, but I don't have the time to look - what are the polling demographics in states that permit early voting? Presumably, they're included in 'likely voters' or a similar category. Otherwise the numbers are meaningless.

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paradski:

McCain's ceiling seems to be 45%. Even with Zogby's extremely favorable party id he can't get past it. So even if the undecideds break in his favor he can only hope for 48%.

Not to mention the bump that Obama is going to get after the infomercials.

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truebljb1:

I'm a McCain supporter and try to be a realist. You cannot deny that the polls have closed. Normally these things do not stop. Once the gates open they do not close. Unless the trajectory changes again, which is possible, I think this is going to be really close on Tuesday. The Obama supporters here have gotten a little testy.

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bmrKY:

Thing is Boom, Obama just doesn't have one state in play in order to win like Kerry and Gore did (and even Saint McMaverick with the Pennsylvania strategy). He isn't just relying on Ohio.

He's relying on Ohio, and Virginia, and Colorado, and Nevada, and North Carolina, and Missouri, and Florida, and Iowa, and New Mexico, and Indiana, and Montana, and North Dakota, and South Dakota, and Pennsylvania, and Michigan, AND OREGON, AND CALIFORNIA, AND... NEW YORK! AND AND AND... WASHINGTON DC TO TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE!

BYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!


Yes, Boom, you've just been PWN'd once again. Too bad, so sad.

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angrytoxicologist:

@ ricbrig

It is often said that states lag national results. I, personally, doubt this is really true. i think it is due to the fact that there are a lot of national polls out daily and that some of the states don't get pollsed right away so by the time you get a state poll out it looks like the national 'led' the way. It is impossible for a national poll to change without the states changing (i.e. there are no citizens polled who don't belong to a state or DC). Actually, if there was movement in a national poll that led some states, that means that in some other state, the movement would be even more profound.

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NHBlue:

Interesting: Catholic trend to Obama. As they go so goes the vote (at least for the past 9 elections):

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/10/parsing_the_tracking_poll_the.html?nav=rss_blog

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political_junki:

It doesnt matter at all if it is +3. You have to see if Obama has stayed +50 or not.
If he has there is absolutely nothing to be worried about. Every body knew undecideds will break to McSames favor.

Let boom has his cheap trill for 5 more days, and then be flushed down the drains. That way will be more fun :-)

AS LONG AS IT IS NOT OBAMA WHO IS LOSING SUPPORT, IT IS EXPECTED FOR MCSAME TO BECOME 47 OR 48 IN RASS.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Arizona is a toss-up. McCain now up by only +2. Obama's dominance among Latin Americans is beginning to swing some of these state polls in favor of him.

I look for his lead in GA, and FL to continue to widen. His outreach on Univision will pay off.

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boomshak:

@paradski:

McCain polled 47% on Gallup yesterday.

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decided:

new polls:

Ohio Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 51, McCain 42 Obama +9
Florida Associated Press/GfK Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
North Carolina Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Virginia Associated Press/GfK Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
Colorado Associated Press/GfK Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
New Hampshire Associated Press/GfK Obama 55, McCain 37 Obama +18
Nevada Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13

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jeepdad:

The new AP/GfK and Q-Pac polls are a little does of medicine right now. All good for Obama.

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decided:

the new polls all say the same:

McCain SURGE!!!

haha

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MNLatteLiberal:

boomshak:

"State polls typically lag national polls by a week."

So expect a HUGE McCain surge some time after the 5th. HUGE. Why, I bet those leftist pinko pollster won't even be there polling in the field next Wednesday sensing how close McCain is getting on the state level.

boom, you gotta adjust your message for the TIME. Otherwise, it's even funnier. And that's saying A LOT.

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paradski:

@truebljb1

Sure, if you only concern yourself with the national numbers and consider O+6 close.

McCain's support is so soft that of course he is moving a little bit at the end but it is not enough to win nationally and certainly not at the state level.

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political_junki:

boomshak:
@paradski:

McCain polled 47% on Gallup yesterday.


---------------------------------------------
As long as Obaama stays higher than 50, it means it is not obama who is losing support, mccame is gaining among undecideds, every body knew it is going to happen

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angrytoxicologist:

Oh, I wanted to mention one other thing, the race HAS to tighten. It's a fact. Why? There are undecideds in polls. Nobody votes 'undecided' so the numbers have to add up to 100% including the 3rd parties. 52-42% doesn't happen on election day. If Obama stays at 50-52, Mcain will likely end up with 49-46. This, in fact, is my prediction: 51-48 Obama win at ~350 EVs.

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NorthernObserver:

Calm down everyone. Look at the Quin numbers. O +12 in PA and +9 in OH! That right there is the ball game.

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boomshak:

WHY OBAMA IS THE LUCKIEST MAN ALIVE:

1. The economy goes to sh*t a month before the election.
2. What will probably be the final game of the World Series gets "rain-delayed" in the 7th inning for two nights so that the last game can appear right after Obama's half-hour informercial, probably increasing Obama's audience 10 fold.

One caveat. People may be annoyed that Obama is trying to inject himself into their baseball game. Also, there is the risk that he comes off a bit too cocky and self-assured.

Last point. If Obama appears, then as a fan, your team loses, does your mind make that emotional connection between Obama and your team losing?

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paradski:

@boom

47 in the traditional and 44 in the expanded which of course you throw out. I'll do the same as RCP and that gives 45.5. Sorry game over.

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Northeastern Republican:

i love how people refuse to have an honest conversation about how obama has had a 4-8 point lead in rasmussen the last 35+ days and has dropped to 3 today. its at the very least an interesting mark for the mccain campaign, especially since rasmussen was at 8 points just a few days ago and typically changes in the rasmussen occur at a snails pace. and yes, state polls do lag behind national polls for whatever reason - so if there was a drastic tightening to take place later this week it probably wouldnt be reflected in state polls until the weekend... or monday... or not at all before election day.

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Dutch Observer:

I have been following the US elections with great interest and Pollster has become my most frequented source. I enjoy both the in depth analysis but also the high flying arguments between the "Obamabots" and the "McSame" supporters.
As I am Dutch, my thoughts might not be woth much in this, but want to share it with you nonetheless.
McCain is an interesting candidate. His past shows without a doubt that he cares deeply for the US, a country many of the nations of the world are endebted to, including my own. His record does show that he at times dared to go against his own party and as I understand has taken a more liberal position than many of his party on several issues. His age should not disqualify him. Mitterand was 72 when he was elected president of France for the second time in 1988, and he too had recovered from cancer. And he was elected for 7 years!
What does disqualify McCain is my view is his running mate. I fully admit that this is the result of me being a complete "moonbat". As many Dutch, I am, for US standards, liberal squared. If Obama is a socialist (or even communist), I am more marxist than Marx himself.
In any event: I strongly believe that religion and state should be seperated and that is something which I do not see happening with Palin around.
The US constitution is something to admire. The freedom of religion is a shining example for many other nations. However, If the US wants to bring democracy to the rest of the world, such as in Iraq, it will work in its detriment if it soaks its policies and identity in Christian values. It will only create distrust. Lead by example, as the US did after WWII with the Marshall plan, not by force. I am convinced that force feeds the hatred in the Muslim world, and hatred feeds fundamentalists.
That is exactly the reason why I prefer Obama. He is willing to go down the path of diplomacy, by sitting down without preconditions with people who may be unscrupulous, but who do have power. Peace and prosperity will dry up the drinking well of fundamentalists. Or at least, I believe it will in my naïvité.
Anyway, my two cents worth, if it is that much.
Oh, and to finish off, a nice quote attributed to Voltaire: "I disagree with what you have to say but will fight to the death to protect your right to say it."
That is what freedom of speech is about. But that does not mean that we have to leave common decency at the doorstep. Although I disagree with Boomshak on many things, I regret that many resort to namecalling in their replies to him.

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mandalorianarmy:

The turnout in the Battleground states is going to be so high that all you should really be looking at is the Registered Voter numbers to have an idea of what is going on there.

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NHBlue:

The race is tightening:

On fivethirtyeight McCain's chances have surged to 3.5% from 3.3% OVERNIGHT.

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mysticlaker:

@ner....

No one is doubting there has been some tightening now. We'll have to see how much after tomorrow.

My theory is that the undecideds in the "red" and "purple" states are coming home. That is fine as long as we keep over 50% and the state polls continue to reflect that.

The PA daily tracker is great for this....It is going to show a critical state, and if there is any movement in it.

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jeric:

I'd really prefer to see a stronger Obama lead going into the election... but I'm sure they'd prefer to see even ONE poll with McCain in the lead. Even the models that assume the election has the same kind of turnout as 2004 - no enthusiasm gap, no increased African American turnout, yet an energized evangelical vote - still show Obama winning. Only thing we can do now is keep campaigning!

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boomshak:

WHY OBAMA IS THE UN-LUCKIEST MAN ALIVE:

1. Obama has it in the bag. He is cruising. He then makes some off-handed remark to a plumber chosen at random that is video-taped on a cell phone about "spreading the wealth". His poll numbers drop 10 points after the comment.
2. The Fed cuts interest rates to 1% the week before his election and the market rallies 1500 points.
3. Gas goes to $3 a gallon the week of the election.
4. His running mate makes people worry about an international crisis.

It's a crazy world. Hard to tell if God loves Obama or hates him. Good luck, bad luck, who can tell :)

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maddiekat:

Boom****

What is it that makes this election so hard for you to understand. When McLiar loses either VA, OH, FL or all of the above the ballgame is over. Everyone knew the tracking polls would tighten up as soon as the undecides were pressed and the majority were given to McCain.

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DecaturMark:

@Boom

Look at these early voting numbers combine them with the latest STATE polling and tell me who is doing better.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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BrookLynda:

@MNLatteLiberal: you beat me to it! ROTF LMAO

Classic Boomshak moment!

Epic fail!

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sherman:

Looks like the party is over for McCain. Less than a week to go and Obama still at 50%. State polls showing an Obama landslide.

The fat lady hasn't sung yet, but she's getting ready.

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

I am getting nervous if it is 50-47 Obama may still be all right if 49-46 I think I will reach slowly for my bottle of pink pills.....

So the state polls still look real good for O but the national not as much so if it is 50-47 today in Ras and then Sunday drops off tommorow could be 50-46, we shall see.

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alleyesontheprize:

+3 O on Ras = OBAMA BLOWOUT. Without PA McCain has 0.0% chance of an electoral victory. 30 minutes of national airtime for Obama = NAIL IN THE COFFIN!

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MNLatteLiberal:

Northeastern Republican:

"i love how people refuse to have an honest conversation about how obama has had a 4-8 point lead in rasmussen the last 35+ days and has dropped to 3 today."

I think, NE, we ARE having a discussion, but you cannot see it for all the words. The drop in national polls argument in this discussion is being countered by the state poll data, by the lead among those who already voted, and by the fact that with a week to go a)some tightening was expected by some and b)other national polls to come out later will not reflect this RAS trend.

In short, a discussion. Unless your definition of what a discussion is runs more along Rove/Cheney lines.

best of luck
~Latte

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boomshak:

WHY OBAMA SHOULD BE MUCH FURTHER AHEAD IN NATIONAL POLLS:

Obama has HUGE leads in tghe most populated states (NY, NJ, PA, MA, IL, MI, CA). Other than TX, McCain's big leads are in smaller states.

So how is it that Obama isn't MUCH further ahead nationally than he is?

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NHBlue:

What's the story with the state poll lags? True or just losers grasping at straws? It sounds more like a palliative meme like "Obama is just lucky," "America is a center-right country," "Bradley effect," "my cousin's neighbor's ex dates an Obama volunteer who said [fill in the blank]."

Any real proof of state lag?

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boomshak:

@alleyesontheprize:

+3 O on Ras = OBAMA BLOWOUT

You are missing various points:

1. The MOE on this poll is 2.
2. To get to +3 from +5, McCain had to poll BETTER than O+3 on Tuesday. In other words, the leads sin't Obama +3, it's less.

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mysticlaker:

@nh blue

State lag is only due to normally "sporadic" state polling. If you see the polls being released now, most completed sat/sun/monday. So, if there really is a "shift" most state polls would not show them till repolled.

That is why these state trackers (nh/pa) are great.

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nickn777:

If you weight the Daily KOs/R2000 poll, using Rasmussen's weighting system by party ID, .4,.33.27, D,R,I, the poll is actually:

Obama: 49.41
McCain: 45.51

The Daily KOs poll does not sample enough Republicans but also samples LESS Democrats as well. So the overrall difference from 50 -44 is not that sharp.

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Saxa:

10 days ago Ras had it 49 to 47.

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muckinello:

Boom, your credibility went out of the window more or less at the same time that McCain did the same ... you jump from poll to poll ..
RCP average will have Obama on Nov.4 with +4 or +5, plenty enough:
- twice the advantage of Bush 04 and five times the dis-advantage of Bush 00
- a solid lead on all BG states
Just keep beating your own drum .. you are in dwindling company

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southern angler:

This is another bad day for Obama. It's so funny to listen to the dems as they scramble to find some light for Obama. There is a finite amount of blacks and kooks that support Obama, most of which have already voted. Wait til Nov 4 and you will see an enormus turn out of white conservatives for McCain, kinda like 2004. Bye Bye Barry.... Here comes Johnny!!!!

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Marcus:

@ Boom

somehow i feel the majority of polled people in the National polls are in battlegrounds and not in say a Cal or NY or TX. But you are right the states combined dont add up to a lead of 3-6 pts . If you add up the state polls it should be 10+.

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Kjartan:

@dutchobserver

well said: I can agree in every point. After the primaries I thought McCain and Obama are interesting candidates. Both had good points to get elected: change and experience. McCain focused on the lack of experience of Obama. His VP choice was very bad because he lost his main argument against Obama and his credibility in doing right decisions.
Obama seems to me more calm and steady in his actions und thoughts - two characteristics a leader has to fulfill.

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muckinello:

RCP moved NV to lean Obama. result:
Obama 311
McOldie 157
Toss-up 70 (with Obama lead on 67 of those!!!)

Five days to go!

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truebljb1:

I'm a premium member at Rasmussen. They have less undecides than most polls because the include soft leaners. They break the vote down as Certain, Likely, and Leaners. I will get the internals at 9:30. If McCain surges it is very possilbe that leaners will switch. Obama is NOT above 50% without leaners in virtually any poll. At his high water mark at Rasmussen he was at 48% certain Sunday, yesterday that was 46%. That is the number I'm interested in today.

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mysticlaker:

6 days to go :)

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eugene:

Mccain is running out of time,did you guys see the new ap polls.

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decided:

@ muckinello:

did boomshak ever have any credibility?

+3 in Ras would not be a good trendline. But if the infomercial tonight is done well, then McCain is toast.

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JerryTheAngel:

Less than a week before Election Day, the AP-GfK polls show Obama winning among early voters, favored on almost every issue, benefiting from the country's sour mood and widely viewed as the winning candidate by voters in eight crucial states — Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

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political_junki:

"southern angler:
This is another bad day for Obama. "

It is funny how we have become so used to being ahead that this:

National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Ohio Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 51, McCain 42 Obama +9
Florida Associated Press/GfK Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
North Carolina Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Virginia Associated Press/GfK Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
Colorado Associated Press/GfK Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
New Hampshire Associated Press/GfK Obama 55, McCain 37 Obama +18
Nevada Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13

is a bad day for us :-)
Dude, you guys are ****ed.

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bmrKY:

@truebljb1

No one is testy. The race has "tightened" in the trackers, mainly due to on-the-fence republicans coming home to McCain. No one ever predicted Obama would win by double digits. Not in this country, with our "history" and the current dividedness. I've always said that McCain will probably get around 47% of the vote. My opinion on that hasn't changed and will not change. The bottom line is McCain will have to pull out A LOT of stunts and dirty tricks to pull off wins in EVERY SINGLE TOSS UP STATE (the yellow states on the Pollster map) right now, plus ALL of the states that pollster has light blue, and even one state that pollster has dark blue.

The AP poll last week had the race 44-43, Obama leading, nationwide. Clearly the closest of all the polls we have seen. Today their state polls show the exact opposite, with Obama leads across the board. It's not IMPOSSIBLE for McCain to win (nothings impossible; I thought there was no way that people would re-elect "Bush The Bastard", but they did), but it's looking very difficult. The trackers are tightening, but NONE of them show McCain ahead. Not even Zogby and his crappy party ID breakdown that only gives dems a 2 point advantage, when it's clearly more along the lines of a 7-8 point advantage AT THE VERY LEAST. Again, McCain will get 47% of the popular vote, and even if he gets a little bit more I would still be shocked if he pulls it off in the electoral college. The guy has run the worst campaign in modern political history, and is advocating the policies of quite possibly the worst President in the history of the United States. At this point, if he wins it would truly be a miracle (or curse, depending on how you look at things). I think voters in swing states realize more than those in other states that we can not afford 4 more years of Bush policies. That is why the swing state polls seem to be increasing for Obama, not tightening. Whereas nationally, the republicans are coming home to McCain, in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire the democrats who were uneasy at first are now starting to come home to Obama.

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BUS:

Jesus - facts are stubborn things. The RNC hurriedly up in Montana and West Virginia; Arizona within the margin of error; Virginia and Colorado trending further out of reach; no appreciable movement in Pennsylvania at all, notwithstanding its trumpeted designation as McCain's "last stand"; the fact that McCain's own pollster rushes an internal memo into print that cites the fact that Obama's not closing the deal in Indiana as evidence of closeness... one could go on.

McCain can flail and blather and garner headlines all he wants. The states are what count. Obama is focused on the states. Obama is winning the states. That is simply all you need to know.

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Observer:

Rasmussen was at +8 at the end of last week. They increased their sample of Dems yet again for this week and Obama is now +3.

Ras Dem polling advantage is 7.2% Dem but Obama lead is now +3. Kos Dem polling advantage is +9% but Obama lead is now +6, very similar.

But when the Rep or Dem candidate surges the party ID for their party benefits as well. If the Dem ID advantage is also being erroded then this move towards McCain might already be greater than it seems.

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boomshak:

WHEN OBAMA REALLY NEEDS TO WORRY:
If you start to see polls like Rasmussen and Gallup showing Obama around 47 or 48, he has a problem.

DailyKos today had Obama at 49. gallup yesterday had Obama at 49.

P.S.,
I wonder how silly Pew Research is feeling about now with their Obama +15?

____________________

SoloBJ:

I'm confused. Looking at the most recent state polls, Obama has increased his lead in a number of them so why are we seeing the opposite in the national polls? RAS down to +3? Not happy about that one.

____________________

DTM:

Obama's bad day in Rasmussen actually occurred two days ago, the day he dropped from +8 to +5. But since he held at +5 yesterday, Obama probably had a relatively good day yesterday. Assuming the +3 today is correct, he probably had a worse day again today, but probably not as bad as the one two days ago.

So two things to note: first, the Rasmussen dailies aren't showing a consistent trend, but more of a yo-yo effect. Second, tomorrow is the day to watch in Rasmussen: that bad day that originally knocked him from +8 to +5 will roll off and be replaced with something else.

On a general note: assuming the race tightens a bit as more undecideds come off the fence, our resident cherry-pickers are inevitably going to have more cherries to pick. But I suggest maintaining some perspective. Specifically, in 2000 the average of the final polls was about Bush +1. In 2004, it was about Bush +1.5. So when the average is something like +6 and even the polls the cherry-pickers are picking are +2 or +3, you really shouldn't be overly concerned.

____________________

southern angler:

Lets have an honest conversation.
Have you guys noticed how John McCain has fixed Wallstreet and lowered gas prices this week? This could explain his surge.

____________________

thoughtful:

have any of the Premium Ras guys confirmed the Drudge story?

Another leak to Drudge and you start to think the integrity of the poll might have been compromised.

Alas its the States votes that decide the POTUS and not the national vote.

____________________

JerryTheAngel:

Said pollster Peter Brown: "If - IF - Sen. Barack Obama can take Florida, he could match or come close to President Bill Clinton's re-election margin in 1996, carrying all three of the big swing states en route to rolling up 379 Electoral College votes. The last challenger to win the Big Three was Ronald Reagan, who tallied 489 Electoral College votes in his 1984 landslide."

____________________

political_junki:

by the way Associated Press/GfK is the same poll that had Obama +3 last week, so obviously this "state polls lag one week" is bull****, or Obama has surged in swing states?

____________________

Dana Adini:

todays state polls

Race (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Ohio Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 51, McCain 42 Obama +9
Florida Associated Press/GfK Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
North Carolina Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Virginia Associated Press/GfK Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
Colorado Associated Press/GfK Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
New Hampshire Associated Press/GfK Obama 55, McCain 37 Obama +18
Nevada Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13

____________________

BUS:

"Blacks and kooks" - that right there is why these mother****ers are losing.

____________________

vmval1:

Ras showing o+3 is no big deal. Obama had an exceptional day of polling fall off. Let's see tomorrow (National polls are all academic now anyway - the EVs are looking good).

____________________

alleyesontheprize:

@Boomy

I do understand fully. Do you understand this is an electoral process and at this point McCain has shown NO surge at all in the electoral race? Do you understand McCain needs PA and he is trailing BIG TIME? Do you understand Obama is running a 30 min. national ad tonite? This race is over.

____________________

KMartDad08:

As Joe Biden would say, "Mark my words." Poll results released on Thurs., Oct. 30 will represent the high-water mark for McCain in this election. It's down hill from there after Obama dominates the news cycle on Thurs & Fri (his infomercial; Bill Clinton campaigning with Obama in FL). After that, people's minds will be made up, and Obama will rise to 51 or 52.

____________________

Observer:

@SoloBJ

Up until the figures reported on Saturday Obama was doing very well. His average in the national trackers was +8, i.e. 10% better than Kerry. That is why his state figures are so good. The change in the national trackers began with the figures reported on Sunday. There simply has not been time for this to affect the state polling.

____________________

BUS:

"So when the average is something like +6 and even the polls the cherry-pickers are picking are +2 or +3, you really shouldn't be overly concerned."

It baffles me that something like this would even have to be pointed out. Well said, nevertheless.

____________________

douglasfactors:

Can we have a thread on the AP and Quinnipiac state polls?

Pretty please?

____________________

paradski:

Sorry Boom...

Obama is at 50 today in Dkos and Gallup had him at 51 and 49 yesterday. Making up numbers and ignoring others isn't going to win this thing for McCain.

____________________

JerzeeBoyMI:

@boomshat (err boomshak):

Maybe the 9% "other/refused" 9% in the demo are repubs...I wouldn't admit it either if I were them.

____________________

nickn777:

---have any of the Premium Ras guys confirmed the Drudge story?---

McCain, Drudge, (R)asmussen, Fox, are all the same outfit. No need to confirm, i am sure it's three points!

____________________

fed:

The reaon behind the national polls tightening and the BATLLEGROUND polls going the other way, might be that most resources are spent in those states. You might have the undecided going to McCain In deep red and deep blue states

____________________

JCK:

Re:"State polls lag"

Not if the states in questions are being polled every day like they are now.

The state polls only lag when they're being polled weekly, or less frequently. It's an artifact of the frequency of sampling, not some fundamental polling phenomenon, as some would like to believe...

____________________

BUS:

Calm down Obama fans - we're not vanquished quite yet. Thus speaketh Dick Morris:

"But don't write Obama off. His candidacy strikes such enthusiasm among young and minority voters that there is still a chance that a massive turnout will deliver the race to the Democrats."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/undecideds_should_break_for_mc.html


____________________

bmrKY:

Dick Morris is a dip****. Have you seen his much talked about electoral map? Enough said.

____________________

BoomzAnAss:

@Boomshak
"Also, I think there is high likelihood that Obama's one-day polling was below 50% on Rasmussen yesterday as it was of DailyKos (49%)."

I thought Boom didn't give any credence to the DailyKos poll? I love it when he wholly discards or accepts whichever poll represents his views.

____________________

BUS:

Uh oh:

"John McCain does not appear to be making up ground in Ohio, the key battleground state that is crucial to keeping his White House hopes alive.

According to CNN's latest poll of polls of the state, the Arizona senator now trails Obama by 6 points there, 50 percent to 44 percent. That gap is two points wider than it was Monday and double what it was one week ago.

...

Meanwhile, a new poll of polls in Florida shows a similar story. The Arizona senator trails Obama by 4 points there, 49 percent to 45 percent. That gap is 3 points higher than it was earlier today and is largely due to a newly released survey from LA Times/Bloomberg showing McCain down 7 points in the state. The Florida poll of polls also includes surveys from Suffolk University and Reuters/Zogby."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/29/polls-show-mccain-not-making-up-ground-in-ohio-2/

Cower! Hide! Scream! It's the surge!

____________________

zen:

@Boomshack,

looks like Maccain is gaining only in red states and losing in swing states.

national polls are tightening and swing states polls are widening the gap...

Great... Maccain can win popular votes, and Obama will landslide electoral votes.

Good deal?

____________________

IdahoMike:

Tightening means less now that something like 30% of the vote has been cast in most states. And still we see a comfortable state numbers. State margins are icing on the cake.

I think the tighter race will only serve to get out the vote for Obama - walking into election day with an insurmountable number lead creates a false sense of security and keeps the lazy democrats home (i.e. the "Bradley effect").

OBAMA!!!

____________________

JCK:

Which state polls today can possibly give McCain hope?

Already, RCP has THREE PA polls. They are +12, +12, and +13 for Obama. I guess the PA gambit isn't going so well for McCain.

The +9 for Obama in Colorado (AP)? Is Colorado going to be dark blue today, or will we have to wait until tomorrow.

Perhaps the tightening has occurred in FL. I see two polls with Obama at +2. Remember that without FL, McCain has no feasible path to victory, even with PA.

How about the two most recent Nevada polls, showing Obama leading +10 and +12(!) in that state. If Obama wins NV, CO, VA, NM, and IA, as he appeared poised to do, He can afford to lose PA (which is the mother of all longshots for McCain).

Surely Ohio has some good news for McCain? Ummm, no. McCain is trailing by anywhere between 4 and 9 points, depending on the poll.

Someone please explain to me which of these states McCain will win? I'm getting a bit confused by the wingnut gloating over tightening in the national polls...

____________________

bmrKY:

@zen

Sounds like a good plan to me :)

____________________

BUS:

Interesting that the new Obama ad takes a smack at Palin. They must reckon that she's sunk so low in the public's estimation that it's a free shot. Expect John "health of the mother" McCain to try counterpunch with plangent cries of sexism.

____________________

truebljb1:

The problem with your infomercial is that Americans are realizing Obama has not been truthful on a host of issues. If he is out advertising McCain 5-1 in every state and losing ground, why would you think an infomercial is going to help.

____________________

southern angler:

Becareful today when you go outside, look out for Obama's falling numbers. I almost got hit by one yesterday.

____________________

The_Huntsman:

This is sort of laughable, in perspective. Obviously the numbers for McCain will tick up as the undecideds break for him. It doesn't matter -- Obama stays at 50-52 which is fine.

The state polls have nothing but consistent bad news for McCain. When GA and AZ are "too close to call", well, that is pretty much game over for him.

And spare us the nonsense about how the state polls lag a week behind the national polls -- even if it were true, it doesn't help much if the election is less than a week away.

____________________

Dana Adini:

for all you GOP hopefuls out there do the math

Kerry states all solid blue = 252

Iowa, NM, NV (check out early voting 2-1 democrats plus polls) = 269

that means to TIE McCain needs to win every single battleground state

VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, GA, ND, MT, MO, CO

if those are 50-50 (they are not)

McCains chances are 1 in 1,024

try hitting a 10 team parlay on sunday

____________________

political_junki:

"southern angler:
Becareful today when you go outside, look out for Obama's falling numbers. I almost got hit by one yesterday."

Hit where in the head?
Enjoy your last days being able to pretend you are not losing :-)
Next week this time, Obama will be the president!

____________________

mysticlaker:

There is nothing better for Obama than to see national tightening to get his organizers organized and voters voting...It's great.

____________________

zen:


JFK won popular votes by less than one percent and got 301 EV.

Obama will follow JFK....

____________________

hou04:

DIAGEO/HOTLINE

Obama 49 (-1)
McCain 42 (unchanged)

Looks like a REAL surge to me :)

Look at all the blue at RCP today.

____________________

Dana Adini:

RAS

O 50
M 47

____________________

paradski:

@truebljb1
The problem with your infomercial is that Americans are realizing Obama has not been truthful on a host of issues. If he is out advertising McCain 5-1 in every state and losing ground, why would you think an infomercial is going to help.

Which battleground state is he losing ground in?

____________________

mysticlaker:

This is the first time I am thankful for the electoral college. It makes the nationally numbers so much less important.

____________________

jamesia:

OMG Obama is ahead by only 6 in this poll! McCain will be in the lead by next Wednesday!

____________________

jswarren:

I don't like that Palin bashing ad either. Didn't they learn from the first time they tried this? Stop bashing Sarah Palin. IGNORE HER. Let the media bash her, and no saying you are criticizing McCain's judgement is the same thing as bashing Palin. Are they never going to learn this?

____________________

truebljb1:

Confirmed...Rasmussen Obama 50-47. Race has not been this close since September 25th. Internals to be released at 9:30. Favorables now Obama plus 1 down from plus 7 this weekend.

____________________

smith4pres23:

I'm rather conservative, but I'm not living under the allusion that McCain is in any type of good shape right now. What is really disturbing is the way EVERYONE on this site is so thrilled about the probable outcome. Our country is in a sad state of affairs when someone like Barack Obama is about to become president, or even John McCain for that matter. Neither of them have the best interest of the country at heart, certainly not Obama. If Obama could come through on half of the promises he's making, he'd be one hell of a president. Unofortunately, hardly anything he's promising is even possible. America is being completely conned. So congratulations, liberals, you've more than likely won this one. But if it turns out half as bad as when you nuts had total control in the 70s, then God be with us. Maybe we'll get lucky again and have a Reagan-esque figure come in and clean up your mess.

____________________

political_junki:

So if in Rass Obama is still 50, then what is all the fuss?
Every body knew undecideds will favor McCain. Obama is not losing suppot . Meanwhile:
-----------------------------------------------
The Arizona Republic: “Sen. John McCain's once-comfortable lead in Arizona has all but evaporated, according to a new poll that has the underdog Republican presidential candidate struggling in his own backyard.”

Last night, the Cronkite/Eight poll, for the PBS station at Arizona State University, found “Presidential race in Arizona a toss-up: Republican John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by two points (46 percent to 44 percent) in Arizona, a margin that makes the race too close to call, according to a new Cronkite/Eight Poll. The poll of 1,019 registered voters in Arizona was conducted Oct. 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
----------------------------------------------

National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Ohio Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 51, McCain 42 Obama +9
Florida Associated Press/GfK Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
North Carolina Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Virginia Associated Press/GfK Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
Colorado Associated Press/GfK Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
New Hampshire Associated Press/GfK Obama 55, McCain 37 Obama +18
Nevada Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13

____________________

IdahoMike:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/29/massive-voter-turnout-system-kinks-in-georgia/#more-27050

In atlanta, 1.2 out of 5.6 million voted on Monday... Those who arrived at 10:30 didn't vote until 6:00 pm.

Making up ground at this point for McCain most likely too late...

____________________

bmrKY:

Let's put it like this, national numbers aside (all of which Obama is leading in, by the way):

(1) McCain has to win ALL 7 of the current "toss-ups" (yellow states) according to pollster.com's current map
(2) McCain has to win ALL 4 of the current "light blue" states according to pollster.com's current map
(3) McCain must also win ONE of Virginia, Iowa or Pennsylvania, all currently "dark blue" according to pollster.com's current map

Is it impossible for McCain to do all that? Well, like I said, nothing is impossible. Is it likely that ALL of these toss-ups and light, as well as one dark, blue states tighten or flip to McCain at the last minute? To that question I will end this post by saying... I'll take my chances with Obama.

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

Dana,

If those are the right Ras numbers then it shows Obama holding his 50 which is good. McCain picked up some undecideds and didn't erode Obama's support.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Florida early voting

about 33% of 2004 volume...

Party ID

Dems + 6.7%

____________________

jamesia:

smith4press23:

Actually, the way it's shaping up: Obama is the Reagan-esque figure stepping in to clean up the GOP mess.

____________________

carl29:

Update numbers in Florida:

Florida^
(in-person & absentee returned) 2,590,640

Party
Dem 45.4%
Rep 39.0%
No/Oth 15.6%

Ballot
Absentee 45.4%
In-person 54.6%

In 2004 a TOTAL of 7,640,319 voted in Florida. Of those 36.1% voted early.

This year so far 2,590,640 have voted early in FL, 33.9% of those who voted in TOTAL in FL in the year 2004. We are at 2.2% from reaching the early voting level of 2004, and we still have 5 more days of early voting. Do you think we are going to have a great turnout? :-)

____________________

jswarren:

And I don't like this 30 minute infomercial either. It's WAY TOO in your face and will only turn off soft independents who currently lean to Obama.

____________________

bmrKY:

"truebljb1:
The problem with your infomercial is that Americans are realizing Obama has not been truthful on a host of issues."

Yes, because McCain/Palin are just a "beacon" of truth and virtue.

I think more people are fed up with Bush and this neocon agenda that has nearly destroyed and bankrupt this country than they are of Obama not being "truthful." If you believe otherwise, then you will probably be in for quite a surprise next Tuesday.

____________________

Dana Adini:

national polls are fairly inaccurate. Look at the disparity in party ID between zogby and dailykos and Ras....yet they almost have similar results....think about a samplle of 2000. It means an average of 40 per state....so say in atoss up state like missouri where you know its around 50-50 if 40 people polled yield 25-15, it skews the entire polls. and you can't say oh that will even out in another state because the samples aren't homogenous..idaho is different than vermont

look at the state polls since they determine the winner and if you care about the popular vote aggregate the state polls and weight them and you wil get a result


____________________

mysticlaker:

@jswarren

you are crazy. that is like saying the convestions turns off people. people watch who are swayable...every convention has a bump...this will be no different. the question is how much.

____________________

truebljb1:

Look..I'm not saying McCain is going to win, but your argument that his numbers are not falling is false. He has dropped from 52 to 50 in Rasmussen. He has dropped today back down 1 in Hotline (which means 3 points worse thant the day that fell off), He has dropped from 52 to 49 in Zogby, and dropped in the Daily Kos poll as well. These are small moves at this point, but as undecideds pick a candidate and yours number inch down, that is not a good thing. I know that McCain is still an underdog, but I believe now that it will be very close.

____________________

boomshak:

@truebljb1:

Confirmed...Rasmussen Obama 50-47. Race has not been this close since September 25th. Internals to be released at 9:30. Favorables now Obama plus 1 down from plus 7 this weekend.

WHAT ABOUT MOMENTUM?
Here we are, a week out from election day. In sports, they always talk about momentum shifts. Don't those apply in politics as well?

You would have to be a true Obama partisan not to admit that the momentum is 100% McCain right now. Full-blown collapse in most national tracking polls for Obama.

Obama is 100% on the defensive. Who would have though in the last week of his campaign, he would be explaining to America that he is NOT a Marxist, even though most of his friends are and he talks like a Marxist?

SILENCE ON THE LA TIMES VIDEO TAPE:
The LA Times video tape is all over the news this morning. So far from the Obama camp? No comment. Odd. If there is NOTHING bad on the tape, why isn't Obama BEGGING the LA Times to release it? America has a right to know and all that?

Things are unravelling for Obama with 6 days to go.

____________________

Kjartan:

Can anyone explain why Louisiana is polled deep red despite the fact that the early votes have nearly 60 % dem?

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

Obviously turnout is up. If you can't concede that then you aren't paying attention.

This makes the more restrictive Likely Voter models inaccurate.

I want the pollsters to just report the Registered Voter numbers and let us decided on how much to limit that result.

____________________

Trosen:

Haha.. love it. Trolls salivating over national trackers while all the state polling is worse and worse for McCain. I'll say it again.. McCain getting it down to 2 or 3 in national trackers is completly meaningless when OH, VA, CO, maybe ven FL are slipping further and further away. Things could change, but it has the makngs of a total blowout.

____________________

smith4pres23:

@jamesia:

It certainly would appear that way, wouldn't it? Because Obama has done so much to prove that he can clean up the mess we're in. If you're referring to the economy, Pelosi, Reid and Frank are more to blame than anybody! Sure, the war was a mistake, sure, Bush is a dumbass, but Obama isn't anything close to the person that could fix this. I'm not saying McCain is either. All Obama is going to do is weaken our defense, outrageously tax the rich, so the government will take more money away from the 5 people that even still have much, and socialize our health care. The whole 95% BS is not even anything resembling realistic. This will result in a greater chance of being attacked, more government control, no money left to be put in the economy, and 6 month long lines to see the doctor over a cold, when you're paying taxes through the roof already. The devil doesn't come with horns and a pitchfork. Look, Obama may think he's doing what's best. But he's simply not. And even if he did, he's definitely not ready for the white house. He sounds like he knows what he's talking about. In fact, he's the best at saying absolutely nothing constructive that I've ever seen.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@kj

dixicrats...But who knows what happens this year? To me, any state with a high AA population could go blue.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

To all the wingnuts screaming today: Prove your confidence in a McCain win. Show us your purchase from Intrade today. You'll be swimming in money since you are so sure he will win. Proof is in the pudding, my friends. Scan your purchase on intrade and post it on a free image host site. Cross out any personal information, (have to tell the less educated that) but make sure it proves a McCain purchase from today. Easy money, right???


The state polls are all that matter, (VA, OH, MO, NC, FL, CO, MO, etc.) and McCain isn't leading in ONE battleground state. He needs ALL of them to tie, where Obama needs one and it's done. Although a tie would just be poetic justice after 2000, since the election would then be decided by the new Democratic majority, there is no way that will happen.

How's Arizona looking?? Embarrassment.

Spin all you like, but bottom line: there is still no fundamental change in this race. Turnout will be massive on election day, and Obama supporters will not be complacent. Still an Electoral Vote Landslide!

____________________

carl29:

truebljb1,

Of course that it is going to be very close, so that's why turnout is so important. I am pretty glad that national polls show the race tighter because the worst thing that can happen is people thinking that it is done deal and don't go out and vote.

____________________

JCK:

McCain has a small chance of "threading the needle" and pulling out a close EV win if everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) breaks right for him on Nov. 4.

But it's really, really difficult to see how that might happen. I mean, even OH is trending away from McCain in the polls. Kerry never polled better than +4 in OH in ANY poll; the vast majority of polls showed a Bush lead.

By contrast, in the last month there have been 33 OH polls. McCain led in only six of these and there was one tie.

In the last 11 polls (taken over the past week) McCain leads in just one. The remainder show an Obama lead between +3 and +12.

____________________

boomshak:

I have a great idea for an ad:

McCain needs to say:

"This is the U.S.A., not the U.S.S.A.!"

____________________

truebljb1:

Internals of Rasmussen for Premium members only

McCain plus 1 on trust on economy
McCain plus 11 on national security

Big improvement in both from last week

____________________

alleyesontheprize:

Obama still 50% on RAS = NO SURGE. NO SOUP FOR YOU BOOMY!

____________________

political_junki:

@boom:
"Obama is 100% on the defensive."
Front runner is always on the defense.

"You would have to be a true Obama partisan not to admit that the momentum is 100% McCain right now. Full-blown collapse in most national tracking polls for Obama."

Collapse is when you are losing supprters. Obama is not. He is still at 50, and it was a given that undecideds will favor mccain.

Good thing is that next week this time this thing will be over and Obama president. Then you should start your long painful recovery..

"SILENCE ON THE LA TIMES VIDEO TAPE:"
People didnt care about Ayres, you really think they should care about some Palestinian guy? You live in fantasy world

____________________

boomshak:

@truebljb1:

Internals of Rasmussen for Premium members only

McCain plus 1 on trust on economy
McCain plus 11 on national security

Big improvement in both from last week

Wow, no kidding. McCain AHEAD of Obama on the economy? Could it be that America doesn't want an avowed Socialist as President?

____________________

jamesia:

smith4press23:

Visit electiontaxes.com

It's a nonpartisan website set up by Economics professors which calculates your taxes under the Obama plan and McCain plan.

Obama's health care plan essentially amounts to the creation of a health care plan which people can opt to buy into. The plan will compete in the market against all other health care plans. It's capitalist in nature, period. You can keep your own plan, have no plan, or buy up the new plan -- you can choose.

____________________

bmrKY:

"jswarren:
And I don't like this 30 minute infomercial either. It's WAY TOO in your face and will only turn off soft independents who currently lean to Obama."

Way too in your face? The independents and undecideds all "claim" that they want to hear more from the candidates and want them to speak directly to them. Well, here's their chance. If they are "turned off" by it then they can just go watch something else, read a book or post on Pollster.com. Seriously, only in America would a voter be "turned off" by a candidate being straight forward and giving them more information, information that they asked for. Republicans will hate it (because it's a democrat that's doing it), but most independents will probably respect that Obama is trying to make his final sales pitch to them, which I think is the plan with the "infomercial" as everyone calls it. Dems need to stop worrying about every damn thing and just relax. Geez louise. Obama knows what he's doing.

____________________

fed:

I just want to know something. How can McCain win without PA and OH?

____________________

jamesia:

smith4press23:

Visit electiontaxes.com

It's a nonpartisan website set up by Economics professors which calculates your taxes under the Obama plan and McCain plan.

Obama's health care plan essentially amounts to the creation of a health care plan which people can opt to buy into. The plan will compete in the market against all other health care plans. It's capitalist in nature, period. You can keep your own plan, have no plan, or buy up the new plan -- you can choose.

I'm an Independent voter, not voting for Obama, but a 3rd party. Between the two that might win, Obama wins on substantive issues.

____________________

WhereisMitt:

Here is a great site for historical election results, displaying both popular vote totals and electoral college stats.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/


It doesn’t take much to get to 300 EVs. Obama isn’t going to have a Reagan-style win. But even a very small popular vote margin can get you close to 300 EVs easily if you win the right states.

1960 Kennedy, +0.17% 303 EVs
1968 Nixon, +0.70% 301 EVs
1976 Carter, +2.06% 297 EVs
1980 Reagan +9.74% 489 EVs
1992 Clinton +5.56% 370 EVs
2004 Bush +2.46% 286 EVs

____________________

boomshak:

@alleyesontheprize:

Obama still 50% on RAS = NO SURGE. NO SOUP FOR YOU BOOMY!

You just don't get it do you? To get to +3 yesterday, Obama had to poll less than 50 or McCain had to poll 48 or 49.

____________________

jswarren:

boomshak:

Can you explain to me the difference between Communism and what is CLEARLY THE GREATEST VICTORY IN THE HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY: The Iraqi Oil Revenue Sharing program? This program is nothing more than the world's largest windfall profits tax whereby US OIL COMPANY SHAREHOLDERS are having THEIR PROFITS & DIVIDENDS SEIZED by the Iraqi government and then REDISTRIBUTED to every Iraqi citizen in the form of welfare checks. No Iraqi ever has to work again. They can just live off the government.

____________________

SoloBJ:

All of the national polls today thus far show McCain gaining and Obama either holding steady or dipping by a point. I wonder if Obama will get a slight bounce from his infomercial. It seems his camp expected this hence the reason for the 30 minute ad.

I recall Chris Mathews saying a couple of weeks ago regarding the 30 minute ad that Obama realizes that when Americans see him talking directly to them during primetime (ie the debates) he always does better in the polls shortly after. Hopefully this will be the case and we won't be looking at a national tie by the weekend. State polls still look GREAT for Obama.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Has anyone on this board honestly been polled by a major pollster (i.e. Gallup, Rasmussen, R2000, Zogby, etc.) this election?

Not only have I never been polled, but I do not know anyone that has been.

____________________

Saxa:

wow - now they are kicking people out of McCain rally's based on how they look. They even kicked out someone who voted for McCain because she was younger and looked like a student.

http://www.iowastatedaily.com/articles/2008/10/27/news/local_news/doc49068f6ccce49245010961.txt


____________________

truebljb1:

Also, Very interesting numbers

By 2 to 1 independents believe it is better to not have one party rule of government

***By 68-17 marging among ALL voters, believe that one one party has large majority in congress there need to be checks (president of opposite party)

Combined with the tax arguement of spread the wealth and one party control, combined with Obamas inexperience (which now 41% of ALL voters believe he is too inexperienced), McCain is gainging Obama is losing support. You cannot deny that.

____________________

Dan:

IF you look only at the most recent ras numbers, (ras was the most accurate in 2004) then in all the states which have Obama > +5, he has 256 EVs. Ras does have him leading in several battleground states, but by a lesser margin. It's not that anyone expects McCain to make up 5% in less than one week, but what if the polling internals are off, and the Obama supporters are overweighted? That is why talk of 350+ EV is premature. Of course, I'd rather be in Obama's position than McCain's.

____________________

jswarren:

boomfail:

you rarely find out the name of the pollster when you are polled. I have been polled since I will answer unknown phone number phone calls. However, I've never known the name of the pollster, and I have asked if it's a human. They may have been a majore pollster. I'll never know.

____________________

Trosen:

I have friend (for real, not like boom's imaginary one) who does polling, and he says the state and national trackers that show it this close just don't add up. He has 2 theories. One he says are that pollsters like Ras and Zogby are under pressure from McCain/Fox, etc to tweak the internals/questioning to make it look close for obvious partisan reasons. Another he says is that there are a legion of Obama minions out there who are sandbagging to make the polls look close in order to stamp out compacency within the volunteer ranks. (Operation "chaos" anyone?)

I'm not sure I buy either one.. but look. If those new AP polls are anywhere close.. hell, let's even slice off half of Obama's margins and give OH and FL to McCain. It's a joke.. it's OVER. There is no realistic path to 270. These national margins are window dressing. And sorry, simple logic dictates that a poll that concluded yesterday is not a "week behind." lol. Sorry trolls.. the old man is TOAST. If you want to cheerlead the popular vote getting down to 3 or 4%, have fun.

____________________

Unbiased08:

John McCain's momentum is undeniable. Unless you look at the zogby tracker which showed Obama gaining a point since yesterday. Or if you look at the pew poll released yesterday showing Obama with a double digit lead. Or if you look at the swing state polls released by AP this morning which show Obama with comfortable leads in about 5 states that McCain needs to win.

With 700000 new polls out each day, you can always find a couple to support your desired view of the race, but when you look at the totality of the data out there, McCain has not made serious inroads in Obama's support in the last month.

____________________

jamesia:

What's turned off Independents even more is smear attacks out of the McCain campaign. Poll after poll after poll shows that every time Ayers, Wright, ACORN or any other attempt to tie Obama to those figures is brought up, Obama solidifies support even more.

This is a blatant example of how the GOP has moved too far right, just like Colin Powell said. The GOP is not offering what the center wants anymore, and they aren't getting it.

So today they release an anti-Obama DVD attempting to conflate Wright and Obama. It's like a kid who burns himself on a hot stove, but keeps doing it because he forgets it was hot.

____________________

boomshak:

OMFG, MCCAIN +35 ON INTRADE!

Somebody KNOWS something!

____________________

boomshak:

Lol, kidding, made you look :)

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

Sweet Jesus Obama is not a socialist, Boom.

Changing the tax rate to what it was under Clinton is not socialist. Socialism is the government controlling certain aspects of the economy. This is something you learn in Poli Sci 101. Oh and communism is something completely different all together.

Obama needs to fight these smears.

____________________

JCK:

Momentum is BS. Everyone said Obama had momentum after the primaries in February, but then lost TX and OH anyway.

Just because McCain picked up a point or two in the trackers today doesn't mean that he has momentum and doesn't mean he'll pick up a point again tomorrow.

____________________

Unbiased08:

BREAKING: Obama +9 according to rasmussen among voters who have already cast their vote. That means McCain is already down 9 points nationally before the polls open on 11/4.

____________________

smith4pres23:

@jamesia

There may be some truth to that. But you're assuming that Obama is actually going to do what he says. Clinton promised lower taxes, etc, and the minute he got in he RETROACTIVELY raised taxes. This is all a complete joke. He's a Democrat. Liberals have no sense of character at all. He'll say whatever it takes to get elected, just like Clinton. He wants more government power, and that's all. You heard him say many times he wants to redistribute wealth. That's all he will end up accomplishing. He will save money by cutting defense spending, just like Clinton, then 9-11 came just months into Bush's presidency. He will spend spend spend us into more debt by giving checks to people who by majority are too lazy to work.

____________________

Trosen:

Uhhh.. nice try.. He's actually up to a whopping 14.5

Buy in boom..

____________________

boomshak:

@mandalorianarmy:

Sweet Jesus Obama is not a socialist, Boom.

No, he just talks like one and has hung out with them all his life.

____________________

ricbrig:

RAs: 2% are undecided

Is it reasonable in you guys opinion? It looks like Obama didn't catch undecided according to RAS and McCain had them all.

____________________

hou04:

IF YOU ACTUALLY READ RASMUSSEN THIS MORNING, THERE IS PLENTY OF GOOD NEWS FOR OBAMA:

"Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting."

____________________

boomshak:

OBAMA BELOW 50 ON HOTLINE (useless poll)...

____________________

alleyesontheprize:

@Boomy

I do get it. You still have not answered one person in regards to how McCain will make up the electoral votes he needs based on the current polling trends in battleground states. Until you offer a resonable assessment of how McCain will win PA (which he needs to have any chance)you are irrelevant.

____________________

bmrKY:

@trubljb1

Hey, if it means that much to you we will give you the popular vote so your two mavericks will have something to hang their hat on, and we'll even throw in Iowa and New Mexico if you would like, while keeping the Kerry states, and all you have to do is give us Ohio and allow Alec Baldwin to kick Stephen Baldwin in the balls ten times in a row, in exchange.

Sounds like a pretty fair exchange to me.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Is anyone going to attend the McCain post election party. Word is that the McCain campaign is sending Gov. Palin to cast her ballot. I guess she couldn't send in an absentee ballot, or perhaps the polls are beginning to move in Alaska and they don't want to both lose their home states, or, better yet, they're trying to position the "whack job" as far from the national stage as possible because they know she is going to knife someone once McCain-Palin goes down.

Meanwhile, back in Washington, John McCain has decided that the hotel was too crowded for him to attend the post election party.

I guess we can see Nicolle Wallace and Steve Schmidt getting drunk Terry McAuliffe style when a concession speech is finally delivered.

____________________

vmval1:

"Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided."


Game Over.

____________________

hou04:

LOL @ boomshak

Now HOTLINE is a useless poll... and it has 37% Republicans in it.

____________________

political_junki:

Did any one notice why Obama is +3 in Rass?
For the first time they have the 2 other candidates on the ballot.

Nothing in Rass points to a McCain surge:

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.


Obama's Fav/Unfav is +11, I dont know why some body said it is +1????


Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.

Then, what is all the fuss?

____________________

southern angler:

The MSM rats are starting to jump from Obama's sinking ship. Here is CNN'S very own Cambell Brown calling Obama a LIAR. This is sooooo funny.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/28/campbell.brown.obama/

____________________

boomshak:

WHY THE HELL DO YOU BELIEVE OBAMA WILL CUT TAXES?

1. He promised he would accept public campaign finance - he lied.
2. He has had 96 chances throughout his career to vote for a tax cut - he voted "no" 96 times.
3. Bill Clinton promised a tax cut then raised taxes.

So, why do you believe him?

____________________

cambridge blue:

"One he says are that pollsters like Ras and Zogby are under pressure from McCain/Fox, etc to tweak the internals/questioning to make it look close for obvious partisan reasons."

This doesn't happen. I know this for a hard fact. No self-respecting pollster would cook their data to please their media daddy.

____________________

jamesia:

smith4press23:

The GOP is not conservative anymore. GOP presidents have continuously borrowed and spent us into the incredible national debt we have now. Just look at any graph anywhere showing the national debt.

And all taxes are a redistribution of wealth. Both McCain and Obama are pro-redistribution of wealth. Everyone in America is, or we wouldn't be paying taxes to fund our police forces, fire services, and road & bridge repair.

I agree, Obama will end the temporary tax cuts for the rich that Bush instated. When McCain wasn't running for president, he said those tax cuts were "immoral". They are immoral. It's immoral to be in a war that costs $10 billion per month and then go cut taxes. That's what BOTH candidates said. We're just forcing future generations to suck up the mistakes of ours.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

Ras just put up his poll showing 50-47. Here is the interesting stuff he put in the narrative:

Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

I like how you don't actually address any of my argument and say he talks like a socialist which makes him one.

You would last all of two seconds in a debate class. You make no real arguments of why McCain is a better choice. You just throw mud at Obama.

____________________

carl29:

The wording of Rasmussen is just crazy :-)

Look at this,

"Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting."

------------------------------------

Uh? :-)

____________________

political_junki:

Did any one notice why Obama is +3 in Rass?
For the first time they have the 2 other candidates on the ballot.

Nothing in Rass points to a McCain surge:

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.


Obama's Fav/Unfav is +11, I dont know why some body said it is +1????


Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.

Then, what is all the fuss?

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truebljb1:

The CERTAIN Vote at Rasmussen

Sunday 48 - 39 Obama
Today 46- 43 Obama

This is the important number to me. As McCain gains and people break towards him, leaners quite possilbe would come to. Barack is falling below 50, however I realize he is still ahead and that could change.

____________________

political_junki:

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden: 49%
McCain/Palin: 42%
Undec 6%

***********************************************
----In the battleground states (CO, OH, MI, NH, NM, FL, VA, WI, NV), Obama has a 17 pt. lead - 54-37%.
***********************************************
--The number of early/absentee voters continues to tick up. These voters now make up 17% of the LV sample.

--McCain leads among men by 3 pts. (47-44%), but trails Obama among women voters by 16 pts. (37-53%).

--Among white women, the two candidates are essentially tied with McCain at 45% and Obama at 46%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/26-28 by FD, surveyed 870 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

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mysticlaker:

It's all soft support for McCain...Wow.

The lead is critical for lots of reason.

GOTV is Obama +
Weather may be a problem of course, giving an Obama a +

____________________

truthcomb:

The nation's kids, the true barometer of adult political leanings, have spoken. Some of the results will shock you :)
-----------


The Nation's Students Pick Barack Obama in the Just Completed Weekly Reader Presidential Election Poll

Last update: 5:00 a.m. EDT Oct. 29, 2008
PLEASANTVILLE, N.Y., Oct 29, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- America's most trusted and accurate student survey has predicted the winner in 12 of the past 13 elections.
Just days before Americans choose our next president, voting has concluded in the Weekly Reader Student Presidential Election Poll. And the nation's students resoundingly say that Barack Obama will be the country's next leader. In the 14th Weekly Reader election survey, with more than 125,000 votes cast from kindergarten through 12th grade, the result was Obama 54.7% and John McCain 42.9% (with "other" candidates receiving 2.5% of the student vote). The Obama victory in the classroom electoral vote was even more resounding: The Democrat won 33 states and the District of Columbia, garnering 420 electoral votes, while McCain took 17 states and 118 electoral votes.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/The-Nations-Students-Pick-Barack/story.aspx?guid={BFCBCCF9-9DD6-4215-B1FE-B2368CCF72FD}

____________________

boomshak:

@truebljb1:

Momentum to McCain
Doubt to Obama

____________________

KMartDad08:

Although Ras has not gone Gallup on us by publishing 3 different sets of poll results, if you read the narrative on their website, you get the sense they're trying to distance themselves from the topline results. They point out differences in those "certain" to vote (O+1), those with a "high interest" in the campaign (O+4); and those who follow the race closely on a daily basis (O+5). Surely the answer is somewhere in there!

The bottom line is that Obama leads among those who have already cast their ballots (O+7) and is tied with Mac among those certain to vote, at 48. These results all bode well for Obama going into the final days of this campaign.

____________________

tjampel:

the main thing is that Obama is holding at 50%
No intelligent Obama supporter is in denial about the fact that Ras has narrowed. But Obama's portion of the vote has stayed within the same range now for over 30 days. His supporters haven't been defecting at all during that time.

It does look like McCain's been able to convince undecided repubs to come home and that's a good thing for him; he needs them.

If Ras shows Obama at 48% some real bells will go off for me. Even 49% would make me uncomfortable, but....staying at 50% with a Republican-leaning pollster is very solid and the electoral map favors Obama vastly over McCain at this point due to the irrelevancy of much a large segment of the likely voters surveyed (they are in safe states so who cares)

Right now I present you with a bit of "ironclad" wisdom from Nate (paraphrasing) regarding the efficacy of National vs State polls. In one day last week he reported 8000 National poll interviews and 22,000 state poll interviews. Not only that, the State poll interviews are in those states where the election will be won or lost. When you total up the margins based on the intensive state polling we've had in the past 2 weeks you get the best possible picture of where the electorate is at in the places where it matters most.

____________________

OGLiberal:

@boomshak

State polls typically lag national polls by a week."

Evidence, please.

I'll admit, I don't like the +3 only in Rasmussen. I expected tightening but I'd be happier with a +3 that showed Obama 51, McCain 48. Part of this is undecided conservatives/GOPers coming home to McCain. But I think a small percentage are formerly soft Obama supporters finally saying to themselves, "I can't vote for a black guy." Some of that may be due to soft racism, some of it may be due to the, "he'll get assassinated" factor. (not helped by those wackos from earlier this week)

What I find disgusting is that McCain supporters are actually happy about the racism that still exists in our nation because it gives them their only chance at pulling out a victory. That's pretty effing gross.

But there's plenty of good news today as well. For example, let's look at the state polls released today:

Ohio Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7

Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 51, McCain 42 Obama +9
Florida Associated Press/GfK Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2

Florida Quinnipiac Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2

Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12

Pennsylvania Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12

North Carolina Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2

Virginia Associated Press/GfK Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7

Colorado Associated Press/GfK Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9

New Hampshire Associated Press/GfK Obama 55, McCain 37 Obama +18

Nevada Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12

Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13

There doesn't seem to be any path to victory for McCain when you look at the numbers above.

____________________

jswarren:

truebljb1:

I share your concern with the "certain to vote" category, but you have to combine that with Obama's 9 point lead in the "already" voted categorgy.

____________________

Cho:

One can't overstate how great the state poll-numbers by AP are for Obama. Especially his margins among those who have already voted are overwhelming. Also, Gfk/AP was the one pollster who had the race the tightest last week, so no Obama-bias there. They didnt even include cellphone-only users. The important difference to other polls (especially the national trackers) is that the survey lasted several days, so likely included more callbacks, which reduces the skew to McCain-supporters who are easier to reach.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Why is that the "whack jobs" get on this website and they question Obama's tax plan as it relates to average Americans?

One thing is certain: no average American is going to benefit from McCain's tax plan given the fact that the bulk of the benefit goes to the wealthiest Americans and he funds his tax cuts using money borrowed from the Chinese which devalues the dollar and raises the cost of consumer goods.

John McCain's tax plan isn't going to help Joe the plumber or Tito the brick layer.

The whole idea of taking 300 billion dollars of tax payers money to subsidize pending loses of banks as foreclosures rise by buying failing mortgages at face value and refinancing them at current market rates is irresponsible.

McCain wants to give a stimulus to the rich and Obama wants to give the stimulus to the middle class. However you want to label it, it's the right thing to do and that's why he is winning this election.

____________________

jeepdad:

I think it's too easy to forget that all OBama needs in 270 EV. A lot of us Obama supporters are expecting something in the range of 330 votes, so we start to panic a bit when the polls narrow. But when you consider that Penn, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, NM and now Nevada are solid blue states, it makes these tighter polls easier to digest.

____________________

hou04:

TOP HEADLINE on Foxnews.com

"OBAMA TO FLOOD AIRWAIVES: Democrat, flush with cash after changing his position on accepting public campaign financing, buys half-hour of prime-time TV tonight to deliver infomercial — on him"

They are so fair and balanced. Calling him a Socialist every day, yet they want him to accept public financing. Priceless!

And what they don't say that Obama will be on Fox, too... they will make a profit, but still choose to attack him.

____________________

Northeastern Republican:

here are my thoughts:

the next 72 hours of polling will be absolutly critical for both campaigns. for whatever reason, mccain has picked up a bit of support over the last 48-72 hours (possibly due to his increased ad campaign in the swing states and the leaked obama audio clips on drudge from monday) but whatever the reason, there has been an obvious shift in mccains favor the last 2-3 days. if obama can stop the bleeding with his informercial tonight (which we really wont start noticing until friday or saturday) - obama can still feel pretty confident come tuesday. if by some magic mccain can close in another few points by the weekend, we could be looking at the making of an upset. or at least enough fear of one to make teh obama campgian nervous for the first time since early september. i mean, imagine how the obama campaign would feel if they saw these numbers tied or mccain +1 by sunday or monday. they've really got to blow it out of the water with their infomercial and hope enough people are interested enough to watch it.

____________________

smith4pres23:

@jamesia:

You're telling me Republicans aren't conservative enough anymore. You're damn right. That's what I've been saying, John McCain is NOT the answer. But that's only because he's too liberal! Obama is further to the left than anyone in presidential history!! The only person on any ticket this year with the character and knowledge to deal with these problems was Mike Huckabee. When McCain won the nomination, the country lost. But electing Obama will be a mistake that this country had better learn from. People are so easily confused, though. The economy could crash 15 years from now and it could be Obama's fault. However, if a Republican is in office, he will be blamed. Just like the boom in the 90s, that was ALL Reagan. He pushed for Microsfot and technology companies to advance, and that caused the boom. The hard times at the beginning of the 80s was because of Carter. Carter actually put my parents out of business. This specific crisis was mostly congress making fannie and freddie give out loans to people who couldn't afford them, basically to meet some stupid racial quota. This was mostly pushed by Barney Frank. He is more responsible than anybody for this mess, and the bastard won't even take responsibilty for it. He's blaming everybody he can find but can't look in the mirror. And now he and Obama will be working hand in hand.

____________________

BUS:

Surely the most significant statistic out of Ras today is Obama's nine point lead in early voting, which broadly accords with other numbers we've seen. Now, if the race is "tied" at 48 with all those who are certain to vote, it's simply common sense to say that McCain is nowhere near where he needs to be to be able to draw close next Tuesday. And these are conservative numbers - nothing wild. Obama is going into election day having banked a large chunk of votes, with the benefit of deep enthusiasm, and with decent leads in every state that he requires them.

It should go without saying, but this is the Obama ground game at work. And it would appear to work very well indeed.

____________________

jswarren:

NortheasternRepublican:

Do you think there's a chance that Obama's infomercial could be seen as too in your face and backfire? I'm extremely worried.

____________________

southern angler:

OGliberal, All the racism is on Obama's side. Personally I don't think whites will soon forget how nearly all the blacks have tried to screw our country by voting for Obama. That is racism in its purist form. We will not forget.

____________________

Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Ras upcoming predicted, with boomshak like accuracy

10/30
O 49 M 47

10/31
O 48 M 48

11/1
M 49 O 48

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

How does any average American, one who makes less than $250,000, benefit from John McCain's tax plan?

Are we talking about a $300 Bush tax rebate while CEO's get an average tax break of $700,000?

How is McCain going to help Joe the plumber?

____________________

swamib:

these polls don't matter until penn. Co. VA tighten up

____________________

jeepdad:

And lets not forget Obama's appearances with Bill Clinton starting today. That image will be comforting to some of the independents who might be questioning Obama now.

____________________

smith4pres23:

and the worst part is, Obama is conning the American people into thinking that the crash was Bush's fault. Bush had absolutely NOTHING to do with this crash. His tax cuts were completely irrelevant to the problem. This is liberal Congress at work

____________________

Northeastern Republican:

jswarren - a lot of people are unsure how the obama informercial might play out. on one hand, its smart, u have the $, you use it to the best of your advantage. on the other hand, this guys been in the medias pocket for almost a year and is running a pretty tight race apparently a few days before the election. so will someone who was not going to vote for obama as of today - or undecided -after his largly positive press coverage teh last year decide based on an informerical that this is their guy. or will they decide that they'd rather the world series start on time? your guess is as good as mine. we'll get the first clues by friday.

____________________

BUS:

I think its correct to say that the Obama camp foresaw this national tightening - and have, indeed, been warning about it for a while - and so scheduled an Obama/Clinton rally to come at the close of a glowing infomercial so as to countermand any slackening.

Again, let McCain's hue and cry play out, and allow his supporters their measure of comfort from minor movement. Axelrod, Plouffe, Obama - these people are professionals. They know what they're doing.

____________________

tjampel:

@boomshak:

"@truebljb1:

Momentum to McCain
Doubt to Obama"

Do you disregard state polling in key states completely? How about repeat state polling by pollsters you have publicly approved of which show consistent statistically significant margins?

Having at least semi-intentional tunnel vision (I give you credit for not being a moron, in which case it would be because you couldn't help it) does help you sleep better this week and I don't want anyone to have sleeping or stomach disorders this next week so, by all means, find the one national poll (or two) that happens to be going your way and ride it as long as you can, while ignoring the mean of all polls and state polls but it won't make you feel any better on November 5th.

As for all you Obama people over in the white knuckle section, get a life, you wooses; at this we have every reason to believe that our candidate and our efforts on his behalf have done enough to insure a victory..; but don't be a worry wort or complacent either. Acting, as always like WE are the ones running behind and out of time we need to get out and insure the margins we're seeing in the key states we need. It's a question of getting the people in the key states who support our candidate to the polls now (in early voting states) and on Nov 4 in PA and other non-early voting states.

____________________

thoughtful:

truebljb1

Its the 54-45 who have already voted - that number says volumes more than the certain voters!

I love it 390+EVS another unhappy morning for John McCain -maybe he can spend some more time in PA!

____________________

BUS:

"Personally I don't think whites will soon forget how nearly all the blacks have tried to screw our country by voting for Obama. That is racism in its purist form."

Personally, I don't think blacks will soon forget that all the whites tried to enslave and oppress and degrade millions of black people by perpetuating a massive and horrendous historical crime that is only now being accounted for. Some may say that that's "racism in its purist form".

Ah, the south!

____________________

tjampel:

The 9% lead for Obama in early voting is misleading, in that it pertains to ALL early voting, which includes states we don't really care about (like AZ). If you only look at the early voting results in states which are crucial to the outcome of this election Obama has a much larger spread; SUSA has recorded it in some of those states. Look to NC, for example. The gap there is getting to the point where it may just be too large for McCain to overcome.

In areas with high levels of new registrations and AAs enthusiasm has been incredible and these two groups will probably vote at reord levels. I think that, in NC an GA, in particular you will see record levels of AA voters, and that means a probable Obama win in NC, assuming that the polls stay where they are , and means a 25% chance in GA, which Obama doesn't need but which indicates a major landslide if it occurs.

____________________

southern angler:

Dear Bus,
Uhhh.......So.

____________________

tjampel:

Blacks voted 87% for Kerry. That was racist...voting for "Whitey"?

There are a lot of newly registered blacks as a result of Obama's registration drives; they are obviously most likely to vote for Obama. You are really looking at an extra 5-6% on top of that, who are Republicans or relatively conservative...maybe military as well, who might normally vote for a Repub candidate. They are excited by a black Presidential candidate and perhaps not so happy with the choice of Palin, who's BFF political party, AIP attended a secessionist conference a few years ago and had the opportunity to pall around with a few white supremacist groups (and reportedly got along with them quite well). So, ironically many of those so called "racist" blacks are probably conservatives who want to vote for one of their own. By insulting them you probably insure that even fewer blacks will feel at home in the Republican party in the future. I suppose it's good riddance to them for some of you

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southern angler:

I'm not alone. We will not forget. Spin it as you may.

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OGLiberal:

@southern angler

In case you haven't noticed, blacks have been voting for Dem candidates - white, black, hispanic...male, female, etc. - since all of the racist Southern Democrats switched over to the Republican party after LBJ and Congress pushed through the long overdue civil rights legislation in the 1960s that finally forced you hateful bigots in Dixie to treat blacks as equals, as human beings. Many of you still don't but since most of the rest of the country has moved into the 21st century, it doesn't matter and we will have a black president in January 2009.

And I frankly don't care if you and the rest of your racist pals won't forget. Keep harboring that hatred and intolerance while the rest of the country moves on. You racists are a minority that gets smaller and smaller every year.

8 years of a presidency put into power by racists and intolerant Christianists has brought us to the mess we are in today. It's up to the Dems and the black guy who will be leading them to clean it up. Maybe we'll - and remember, we outnumber you - never forgive you idiots for giving us 8 years of Bush.

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bigmac:

@southern angler

You are not alone

You will not forget

But you will eventually die and along with it your racism

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Shaq Daddy:

Lets look at the numbers comparing today to last Wednesday same poll.....

NE O +35 last week, this week O +34
S O -11 last week, this week O -17
MW O +11 last week, this week O +10
W O +10 last week, this week O +12

It does appear as if McCain's advantages are coming in the south. Everywhere else- the poll is exactly where it was last week just about.

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