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US: Obama 50, McCain 44 (Harris-10/20-27)

Topics: PHome

Harris Interactive
10/20-27/08, 1,695 LV
Mode: Internet

National
Obama 50, McCain 44, Nader 2, Barr 1

 

Comments
Trosen:

GOTV is off the chain here in South FL. Potential volunteers are literally being turned away or being told "we'll get back to you.. we're pretty booked up right now." No kidding. The field office on North Beach was so packed today you could barely get inside.. Kick A$$!!

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Trosen:

Oh by the way.. this poll has a huge sample, huge time frame, is unchanged from last week, and is a big jump for Obama since last month. Obama also leading big in already voted and enthusiasm.

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Dave:

the fact that it is taking so long to let people vote is pure voter disenfranchisement. In New York, if there gets to be more than a 15 minute line, people simply fill out paper ballots. how many can do that at a time? how's about all of them... its just a matter of how many #2 pencils we have, and we have hundreds.

if it is taking so long to check voters out, they need to seriously increase the staff at voting places, until they get those lines under 15 minutes.

so why exactly do they have this whole thing set up so that they process one voter at a time, and people wait 5 hours? hmmmm i wonnder...

...

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Trosen:

Dave, Governor Crist and the republican legislature here made sure that with the new optical scan voting machines that there was only 1 printer per precinct, a limited # of voting machines, and other measures that were obviously in order to muddle the system and discourage turnout. But you know what.. even Crist now had to extend the early voting hours (much to the dismay of the GOP) and despite the lines.. people are waiting in them, patiently. By the end of this weekend the # of EVs will blow away the 2004 #s. In some states it already has.

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NorthernObserver:

So, despite the shock of this morning's Ras, it looks like Obama is at 50 and up by about 6. Things look better now, don't they?

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mandalorianarmy:

OMG the Obama tape has been leaked! This is no good at all!

Obama Khalidi Tape

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Trosen:

haha mandalorian.. I knew it was gonna be something goofy.. but damn. That actually would be worse than an anti-semitic diatribe I think.

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Trosen:

Northern, I wasn't shocked or dismayed at all by the Ras poll. Not to mention I have my suspicions that Ras "tweaked" his formula a little to create a bit of a tightening "mirage."

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NW Patrick:

I just don't see the "BAD" news for Obama. Anyone point me to it? ROFL

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Thatcher:

@NW Patrick -

None for Obama .. but there is for us ... boomshak is still going to be annoying for 6 more days.

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PlayingItStraight:

@Trosen

Ras has tweaked his formula -- he increased the party ID advantage over the previous week.

"For polling data released during the week of October 26-November 1, 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated."

"In mid-September, the last weighting targets established before the financial crunch became visible on Wall Street, the targets were 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. Since that time, the number of Democrats has increased by 1.3 percentage points and the number of Republicans has declined by 0.8 percentage points for a net swing of 2.1 percentage points. "

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kerrchdavis:

@NW

Obviously, you're too dumb to realize that whenever a candidate is up nationally by 3 points (most conservative estimate) to 15 points (most generous estimate) and he is winning almost every single red swing state he needs to win, he is in a TERRIBLE position.

WHat kind of idiot are you? :D

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shirefox:

@Trosen

What are the printers used for? Not for a hardcopy record, I would assume, since the paper ballots themselves would be kept as a record after being scanned.

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mysticlaker:

Hi guys,

I just want to apologize for my rant before. I can't take the race baiting...It goes against everything I believe in but that's not an excuse. I should not have lost my patience. I'm sorry if I offended anyone.

Your virtual friend,

Mystic Laker

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kerrchdavis:

@mysti

If you ever get boomshaks address, give me a call ;).

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BridgeportJoe:

Rasmussen is pushing undecideds hard. They're mostly Republicans who don't like the party brand or McCain, but they're still Republicans -- so they're breaking in favor of McCain. A lot of them won't actually show up at the polls to vote for a candidate they don't like, though.

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sunnymi:

@mysticlaker
I am glad you realized it..it is not worthing stooping to the same level as the other guy :-)

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NextAmericanChapter:

McCain can't even catch a break on these internet polls...

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DCDemocrat:

It's self-selected. It's worthless.

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shirefox:

LOL! I agree with Trosen re mandalorian's "tape". Too funny!

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Trosen:

shirefox.. the new way it works in FL is as follows:

- You go in and sit down with a poll worker who checks your ID and voter registration card. (Sorry Repubs who are ready to scream "ACORN!!" Unlikely that mickey mouse, Hugh Jass, or my dead grandma will be voting in FL) They do this about 4 or 5 people at a time..

BUT.. and this is where it gets tricky. For each individual voter, a unique ballot gets printed (with the different local choices depending on your district, at least for early voting) For each precinct there is only ONE printer to print everyone's ballot. Guess what? The printers jam. They break. They go slow when working correctly. And god forbid one might run out of ink.

To make matters worse, the computer system they use to check the IDs and print the unique ballot sometimes crashes (I saw only 2 working computers out of 4 when I voted).

anyway, once you get through that, you take your ballot to an old-fashioned voting "booth" and bubble in your choices for pres, senator, various amendments, dog catcher, etc.

Now it says in about a hundred different places all over the walls and on the ballot AND in the booth NOT to put a check-mark or dot, but to completely bubble in your choice or the machine won't scan your votes properly. But when I went (and granted, this was the very first hour, first day of Early voting), the poll workers were NOT checking to see if people had bubbled in their choices properly before putting them into the machines.

This is clearly an imperfect system.. but at least (if God forbid) we have a nightmare 2000-like scenario, we have one coherent paper trail system for a possible recount.

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Thatcher:

@mysticlaker -

No problemo.

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NHBlue:

There must have been a poll released at 3:45 showing Obama way ahead. The stock market dropped some 350 points in the 15 minutes of trading from its high for the day to close below 9000.

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Thatcher:

Rasmussen ALASKA:

10/28/2008 (10/06)
McCain 57% (+2)
Obama 41% (+1)
McCain +16 (+15)

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Thatcher:

LOL @ NHBlue

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NW Patrick:

TICK TOCK TICK TOCK TICK TOCK. The day is about over my friends. 3 business days to go!

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Oldy75:

The movement in Rass is just sampling noise, nothing to be concerned about.

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NW Patrick:

Uh oh! ABC TRACKING POLL MOVING THE WRONG WAY. If you're Boom:)

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6136936&page=1

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Basil:

NW

Is Oregon's vote by mail system great, or what? The idea of long voting lines is nuts, and does represent disenfranchisement on its face. The people who can't afford to wait for hours are severely discriminated against.

Are we going to see a voting day that has people waiting until dawn on Nov. 5 to vote in FL , VA, GA and other battleground states?

There's a better way, and it's spelled OREGON, dammit!

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oicu:

does anyone place any value in this poll? I don't.

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The Dude:

Part 2 of that infamous Khalidi tape:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TiQCJXpbKg

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shirefox:

Thanks Trosen for that writeup on FL voting. The printer is definitely the weak link. And probably one of the cheapest to fix.

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