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US: Obama 50, McCain 44 (Zogby 10/17-19)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/17-19,08; 1,211 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 44

 

Comments
johncoz:

Yesterday's daily weighted average for all 6 national polls was:

Obama 49.8/ McCain 43.9/ +5.9

For the three-day trackers, the figures were:

Obama 50.1/ McCain 44.1/ +6

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers shows all bad news for McCain, with everything going in the wrong direction for him.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3253/2956149733_2d713c043f_b.jpg

McCain's polling prognosis for the next couple of days in this aggregation is not good, unless Obama is pegged down today, since the Democrat's worst numbers in a fortnight will roll out of the trackers on Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, Zogby catches up with the trend this morning and somewhat mysteriously says the result "now includes a sample taken entirely after the final presidential debate last Wednesday". That should have been yesterday. Is Zogby running a day behind the rest of the world?

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GrampsMcCain:

Zogby marches to the beat of his own drummer. I think the Powell endorsement is worth at least a couple of good days of polling. Zogby was saying that Mcsame was gaining because of his performance at some dinner.

Zogby was the best pollster in 2000 as his final poll had Gore at 48 and Bush at 46. He was the only one calling for a Gore win in the popular vote. But he lost credability in 2004 when he said Kerry would win.

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....And Zogby's poll numbers always portray the closest race of all the polls. So many things going on - Powell endorsement, ramp-up in McCain negative campaigning, Palin's "pro-America" comment, etc., hard to say what is driving the numbers.

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mysticlaker:

Zogby is showing trends changes that no other pollster is catching. Either his methodology is wrong, or his math is wrong.

This is probably the result of a bad Obama day falling off, and a really good Obama day yesterday. It's still inexcusable though, because the numbers he says with changes (only party support, independent support) on a daily basis make zero sense. For example, in yesterday's result he said Obama lost 8 points with independents. Ummm, that would take some huge external event to occur, and no other pollster saw that? Sounds plausible. Not.

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jonny87:

its complete madness that zogby insists on weighting according to 2004 exits.

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carl29:

About Zogby? I don't remember where I read it, it could have been Nate, but the point is: Zogby uses the same party ID from the last elections, 2004 in this case. In 2004 there were the same % of Dem and Rep voting on election day. So, he doesn't have the party ID gap that the other pollsters show.

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carl29:

Doesn't the drudge have this Zogby "developing" story? Oh, well....flawed poll I guess :-)

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jonny87:

2004 exits: 37 D 37 R 26 I

Zogby uses 26 I aswell so makes sense zogby uses the same weightings.

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Atomique:

Well I for one think it's a good thing we have wacky polls like Zogby that give the Republicans some hope now and again. Makes it that much sweeter to crush their dreams on November 4. It's less satisfying to crush dreams that have already been thoroughly crushed.

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vmval1:

Oh Boomshak...

where are you....

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NorthernObserver:

@johncoz

Why do you say Obama's worst numbers will roll out on Tues? And what do you mean when you say "unless Obama is pegged down today"?

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DTM:

Round One of the epic battle between Joe the Plumber and Colin the General goes to Colin.

Just kidding--mostly.

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DCDemocrat:

Zogby's numbers stay within their margin of error from day to day, but because of the way he trumpets movement that is statistically meaningless, he seems like an alcoholic trying to find his car at 2:00 on a Sunday morning. Good golly, this guy does weave. I think in the last week of polling, he plans to use different weights and foresee a clear Obama victory. Meanwhile, we wait for real statisticians to tell us about their findings.

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jonny87:

what time does daily kos release numbers??? half past??

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DavefromNJ:

I suspect this reflects the Colin Powell endorsement, with a much better polling day for Obama among men and independents. Interesting that Zogby's website failed to mention this obvious major event. Three day tracking polls are supposed to smooth out movement in the polls, however Zogby's zig-zag movement suggest their data changes significantly from day to day. Their sample size is small, only 400 per day, but their methodology is a problem as well. Hope we see similar Powell effects in today's other tracking polls, as well as the daily results from R2K.

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johncoz:

In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported "pollster John Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around 38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420151553142939.html

But as I said yesterday, I suspect he is "adjusting" his model as well.

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DCDemocrat:

jonny87: not a really fixed time. DemFromCT puts them up usually between 7:30 and 8:00 AM, though sometimes they go up faster. He's a medical doctor and needs to get to work, I figure.

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mysticlaker:

I didn't know DemfromCt is a medical doctor...Wow!

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vmval1:

As I've stated many times earlier, each of Zogby's polls starts with him asking "does anyone have a dart board and a blindfold?"

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mysticlaker:

Daily Kos

50-42

You can see this by checking the trendline graph. No story or internals yet.
http://www.dailykos.com/trendlines

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johncoz:

@NorthernObserver:

"Why do you say Obama's worst numbers will roll out on Tues?"

If you look at the graph, Obama's worst numbers were surveyed on Friday (reported on Sat) in the three-day trackers average. Those figures will drop out their rolling average tomorrow morning. For instance, Gallup had some sort of sampling error on Friday whereby his RV spread increased but his LV spread shrank. That outlier will disappear out of his average tomorrow morning.

"And what do you mean when you say "unless Obama is pegged down today?"

If Obama goes backwards, particularly in Ras or Gallup, in today's figures, then the rise I am expecting to see today and tomorrow will be offset.

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jonny87:

@johncoz

thanks. now we know the weightings we just have to find out who on earth are the crazy independents he asks whom dramatically sway day to day...

(From 10/10/08)10 points.9 points.21 points.17 points.17 points.8 points.14 points.19 points.16 points.8 points.11 points(most recent)

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jonny87:

lack of movement on daily kos a bit disappointing. oh well

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carl29:

I think that on weekend younger/more-affluent people is not home. Who are the only people you can reach Friday night, Saturday night? old people :-)

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johncoz:

jonny87:
"lack of movement on daily kos a bit disappointing. oh well"

Not true. McCain down 1 point.


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BarackO'Clinton:
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NorthernObserver:

@Johncoz

Thanks -- I see what you mean. I actually misinterpreted your first posting when I originally read it, taking it to mean the exact opposite of what it does mean! Too early in the morning -- I need coffee!

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mysticlaker:

New MN SurveyUsa poll (I haven't seen this yet)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e97fbca6-1c5d-4132-b7b6-2e13d2c16a80

MN
O 50- McLoser 44

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BarackO'Clinton:

Sorry, old poll.

Darn it.

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carl29:

Finally SurveyUsa is showing movement in MN. All along this has been the only pollster with a "tie" race.

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mysticlaker:

That abcnews poll is last weeks data.

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jonny87:

@johncoz

i was hoping for more of a 52-41 day :)

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mysticlaker:

Jonny,

Steady as she goes win the race...I think we'll see a small bump for Obama at the early part of this week, but don't expect McCain not to try some additional crazy things to shake things up.

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jonny87:

@mysticlaker

for my next act i will....

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mysticlaker:

This made me laugh...It's a comment off of 538

As a random aside, amusing contradictions from Zogby:

10/20/08:
Obama has led McCain, an Arizona senator, by between two and six points in all 14 days of polling. "This race has not really moved all that much in two weeks," Zogby said.

10/19/08:
Obama leads McCain by 48 to 45 percent among likely U.S. voters, down 1 percentage point from Saturday. The four-day tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points.
Pollster John Zogby said ... "For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent. There is no question something has happened,"

Something happened yesterday... but nothing has changed in two weeks. But Obama should be worried. Because a change of 1 point in a poll w/ a margin of error of 3 is good news... FOR JOHN MCCAIN!

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jonny87:

poor zogby, he just wants attention

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boomshak:

Honestly, I think all of the major independent pollsters are looking for safety in the shadows of their brethren.

Right now, it looks like the "safety zone" is around Obama +5 or +6. If you think these guys don't get on the phone with each other and collude a bit this close to the finish, you are being naive.

Anyway, rough going from here on out for McCain.

If you thouht the blatant bleeding MSM bias for The One was bad up till now, you ain't seen nuthin yet. I think the word is out. From now until 11/4 NOTHING negative about Obama and NOTHING positive about McCain. Doubt me? Just watch. I can tell you right now, there will not be a SINGLE CRITICAL WORD printed about Obama in an MSM outlet between now and 11/4. If there is anything that sound critical, it will only be because the MSM is defending Obama from some lying Republican charge.

If McCain does lose this he can only blame himself. His refusal to go after Obama's $1 weak spot, Rev Wright, is inexplicable. His handling of Palin early on atrocious. His campaign's horrendous advertising, when and if it actually existed unforgiveable.

Obama has run a highly efficient and well-thought out campaign but then again, so did Hitler and Stalin.

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1magine:

Zogby is and always has been crap. It should be ignored. It is as I said 2 days ago, all polls are heading to same place - Obama by 5-6. They are all taking different routes, some more circuotous then others (Zogby, Battleground) but they all realize the end is near and polls will merge the last 2-3 days if not a little before.

Either way BO leads Sydney by 5-6 with 2 weeks to go and no more VP picks, no more conventions, no more debates. It is all GOTV and advertising and news cycles. Oh and BO's half hour special.

Popular horserace race finishes 52.23 to 45.84 with 1.93 to other candidates. EV - 313-225.

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1magine:

*******FROM NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE:********





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October 20, 2008 4:00 AM

Obama, Unchecked
The coming rout of Republicans will have major consequences.

By David Freddoso

Hopes of a Republican victory on the presidential level are already distant this year, but further down the ticket, hopes are simply nonexistent...








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mysticlaker:

Hi Boom! Good morning pumpkin!

I like to think of a campaign run more like GWB or Reagan of Clinton. But hey, that's me!

Here is an article in the Nytimes today that goes after all four candidates...Looks like your premise is wrong:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/us/politics/20health.html?hp

I wish someone would study this effect (you see it more dems and repubs). "When things don't go your way their is a conspirarcy..."

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mandalorianarmy:

There you have it. Boom moved from denial to anger :)

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southern angler:

Me, my wife and several other friends that registered as Dems during Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" will be voting early here in NC for McCain. I wonder if the pollsters have anticipated the millions of other Rush listeners that are doing the same? I'm sure the Dems are counting on these votes.

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maddiekat:

southern angler

I am sure they have taken you morons into consideration!

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Thatcher:

@southern angler

I do database work for political organizations and trust me on this - we have a good idea who the "operation chaos" voters based upon party change dates on their voter registration along with previous voting history (primaries, etc).

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johncoz:

@southern angler

Good for you! I'm sure it will derail Obama's campaign. (btw, get that new tinfoil hat yet?)

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Thatcher:

@southern angler -

Also, depending on your state - you possibly have just publicly admitted to committing voter fraud.

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southern angler:

Please make sure that you email John McCain and George Bush today and thank them for lowering gas prices. You know, since we blamed them for raising them, its only fair, right?

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NorthernObserver:

Good morning Southern angler,

If you and your wife were registered Dems at one time, what as led you to vote McCain this time arouond?

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mysticlaker:

SA:

The gas prices are down because we are going into a recession. Oil is used more than for cars, but mass industrial products. The prices are down because the demand for oil is going down, not because of some change in the fundamental problem of a petro-based economy.

PS. Your an idiot for believing what Rush says. Your intellect is perfectly clear when you put faith in a lying drug snorting fat ass.

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Thatcher:

@southern angler:

Here's the data you should look at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html

All grades conventional:
1.54 11/06/2000 (day before 2000 General)
1.49 01/15/2001 (Monday before "W" sworn in as 43rd Pres)
1.54 09/16/2001 (Monday after Twin Towers attack)
1.71 03/17/2003 (Monday before Iraq War)
2.02 11/01/2004 (day before 2004 General)
3.16 10/13/2008 (last Monday - today's data not out yet)

So:

more than twice the price from the day before 2000 General
more than twice the price when "W" sworn in
more than twice the price during 9/11/2001 attack
almost twice the price at the beginning of the Iraq War
50% more than the price of 2004 General

Yup, let's give Bush43 and McCain the thanks they deserve for these gas prices.

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NHBlue:

@SA:

I remember a McCain ad blaming Obama for high gas prices. Can we expect an ad thanking Obama for lowering them?

Fair's fair

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bmrKY:

"PS. Your an idiot for believing what Rush says. Your intellect is perfectly clear when you put faith in a lying drug snorting fat ass."

Angler got PWN'D!

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tjampel:

@southern angler

Obama won by 14% in the primary in NC. Hard to see the "millions" of Limbaugh faux Dems in action there. Additionally, if anything this would show up in the polls in NC and elsewhere as a lack of Dem support for Obama. If there are millions of registered Dems who are faux Dems they get interviewed proportionally by pollsters too, and, unless there's a stealth campaign to lie to pollsters (which makes no sense as these poll numbers simply demoralize McCain voters) you'd expect to see lower-than-usual Dem support for their nominee

Next case...

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Dan:

Interesting internals on the SUSA MN poll. Older voter are heavily siding with Obama, while younger voter favor McCain slightly. I have heard that the youth movement in MN is towards the GOP side, but it appears that the state of HHH is still solidly in the dems pocket, for now.

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tjampel:

southern angler:

"Please make sure that you email John McCain and George Bush today and thank them for lowering gas prices. You know, since we blamed them for raising them, its only fair, right?"

Actually the only blame I can recall was McCain's rather clumsy attempts to blame Obama for high gas prices by refusing to sign on to both the Gas Tax holiday and unregulated offshore drilling early on. He claimed that passing such legislation would create a psychological component which would result in lower prices (even though it takes 10 years or so for new drilling to start bringing in measurable amounts of crude).


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BOOMFAIL:

Thanks George Bush and John McShame for ruining the economy and putting us into the worst recession since the great depression. Perhaps that's why gas prices are coming down???

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southern angler:

Northern
I have always be a conservative and always will. My wife WAS a life long dem but does not trust Obama due to his middle east ties, socialist agenda, secular progressive nonsense. Rev Wright's black liberation religion, Rezko, Acorn for starters.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@southerndangler

No need to continue to potificate here, you already said everything we need to know.

Limbaugh attracts the "I've got and IQ of 70" crowd and everyone knows it. Dude is an amoral, misogynistic, drug addicted hypocrite. If you are an idealogue that thinks that he has something to offer I've got news for you.

Any ideology that is impervious to facts and devoid of reasonable analysis is indistinguishable from stupidity. Thank you for playing, please move on.

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BOOMFAIL:

As far as all the "socilaist" claims go....Isn't it Bush and his rethug administration that has now taken ownership of Banks, Fannie and Freddie, Bailout after Bailout etc. etc. Or is it OK as long as it's Corporate socialism, just so the government doesn't actually help the people??? I'm a bit confused at that argument.

Going back to Zogby's crack polling, I believe this shows the numbers breaking away towards Obama again. Hotline gains a point as well. Should see Ras any minute, but yesterday was another point for Obama, etc. I thought all of the polls were tightening. At least that was the impression I got from all of the glee over the weekend from the trolls. How come Drudge doesn't link to the Zogby poll today?!?!

Individual states will decide this election, and so far all the RED biggies (FL, MO, CO, VA, NC, OH, NV, etc.) are firming up for Obama. McShame needs ALL of them, and one for Obama = the Presidency.

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southern angler:

Obama's economic polices has already been tried and failed horribly. If any of you are old enough to remember what life was like in the 70's you know what I'm talking about. If you think things are bad now you really are clueless. During the Carter years everything was much worse. Break out your mortgage calculator and see what a 21% interest rate house payment would be, then recalculate at 6%, then compare Bush to Carter. The last eight years have not been bad, the economy has slowed down during the last two years only. But I doubt most of you are old enough to have been in the work place for eight years otherwise you would probably know that.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@southerndangler

Oooh a scathing retort. Too bad that the current state of economic affairs doesn't resemble that situation at all.

Uninhibited K-Street greed and Phil Gramm's "economic terrorism" have nothing to do with the problems of the 1970's. This problem is systematic and it comes straight from the "voodoo economics" of the Reagan era.

Once again thanks for playing, but if you want to play in the bigs you've got to get a better script. RW talking points are pretty much meaningless at this point in time so you might want to go off the reservation and try to think about how we are going to solve the problems in front of us.

I know probably not going to happen but I can dream.

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BOOMFAIL:

@southern voter fraud hick

So then you are defending corporate socialism under Bush??

MSNBC hinted AZ is tightening. Obama won't win this state, but still fairly embarrassing for McShame.

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southern angler:

Dwarf are you a real dwarf or just an emotional dwarf, its kinda hard to tell.

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MDB1974:

Zogby's write up for November 5.

"While Obama has indeed captured the U.S. presidency exit polling raises a red flag. Over 30% of Americans still see John McCain as more qualified. This is a disturbing trend for Obama as we move into the post election season"

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OneAngryDwarf:

@southerndangler

Ooh you got me again, your logic and analysis are stunning. Did you think that up all on your own or did you phone a friend?

You still haven't demonstrated a single moment of analytical clarity and now you are resorting to a personal attack. No wonder Rush is your hero. Guess I'll just have to remind myself that no matter what my personal short-falls might be at least I'm still smarter than you.

Southern Dangler that juggernaut of intellect, that master of ad hominem, that classic example of the problems of inbreeding...

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

I head to the polls to vote early, people. It's a great day!!! I finally get to cast my ballot in the general election!!!!


Obama/Biden 08!!!!

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southern angler:

Dwarf
I think you where trying to make a point, but the only thing I heard was
"follow the yellow brick road, follow follow follow the yellow brick road."

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PJ_FFM:

Now, if I get Zogby's current pattern right, this is twice the margin of the previous day, therefore tomorrow this will be a 10.8 gap and by Novmeber 4th, we're, let's see, Obama wins by a margin of... 176,947.4 points. Uhm... No... not quite... let's try something completely different... How about... 2.7 point more every day, resulting in a 45.9 margin? No?

Guys, you really ARE hard to please... :clown:

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OneAngryDwarf:

@southernfondler

Ooh you've eviscerated me once again with your rapier like wit. Like being stabbed with a plastic spoon.

Is that really the best you've got trailor park? God didn't speak to you and give you a more intelligently designed piece of satire?
Where is he anyway, must be out planting more dinosaur bones to test your faith eh?

Oh I know what the problem is, he's keeping you stupid on purpose so that you can better follow his plan. Boy keeping you stupid on purpose, is there a theme developing here? Who would want to keep people uninformed so that they act irrationally and against their own vested self interest?

Wait, I know it will come to me any minute now...

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NorthernObserver:

@SA

I am old enough to remember the 70s and the peanut farmer :-) But I also remember the 90s! The thing is, this is neither! Whoever becomes Pres has to deal with the world in the 21st century. As much as I used to respect McCain (the McCain of 2000) he's a soldier from another day. America needs, as the good general put it, a generational change. At least that's my read on the situation.

It's too bad your wife is so moved by all the negative stuff and fear. It's not the way to run a campaign; it's even less a reason to determine one's vote. Fear is a miserable thing, especially when it's based on innuendo and fear mongering. But I wonder if your wife is only using the negative stuff as an excuse. The reason I suggest that that neither you nor she seem to have any worries at all about the fact that the Palin's are part of the Alaskan Independence Party. That's for real, while all the stuff about Obama is innuendo. Yet it's the innuendo about Obama that seems to create fear, while the fact of the Palins doesn't cause any concern. That inconsistency suggests something else is up.

Nothing wrong with being a conservative, by the way. But I find myself in agreement with general powell. The present Rep party is so in the gutter it hardly has any honour left. I think it could be good for the Rep to be out of power for awhile, give them a chance to regroup and rethink themselves. Gotta stop with the McCarthyism, the nasty name calling, the innuendo, etc.

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southern angler:

Just got back from the polls at South Park in Charlotte. I counted four AA out of approx. two hundred whites. So much for the short lived huge turn out.

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southern angler:

Oh yeah Colin Powell's son is campaigning for McCain. OUCH

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NorthernObserver:

I suppose that makes up for William F. Buckley's son.

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Paul:

Key internals today:

Overall: Obama 49.8, McCain 44.4
Males: Obama 48.2, McCain 46
Females: Obama 50.9, McCain 43.2

Dems Obama 88.8, Reps McCain 88, Inds Obama 49.2, McCain 38.2

Already voted: Obama 63.1, Obama 32.2

Whites: McCain 53.4, Obama 40.4
Hispanic: Obama 65.7, McCain 28.7
AA: Obama 90.4, McCain 5.7
Asian: Obama 84.8, McCain 15.2

Liberals: Obama 89.0, McCain 5.9
Moderate: Obama 62.2, McCain 32.5
Conservatives: McCain 75.9, Obama 17.8


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