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US: Obama 50, McCain 45 (ARG-10/25-27)

Topics: PHome

American Research Group
10/25-27/08; 1,200 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50. McCain 45

 

Comments
NYCREALAMERICAN:

boom - you call Mike Allen and tell him he's lying. Better yet publish it under your real name.

Honestly - The Caribou Barbi stuff is worthless. Anyone with an education knows she is dangerously unqualified. I have no need to hear of or deal with her clothing allowance, her wackiness or her going rouge. Hell pretty much all women wear rouge. I don't even see the point. So she likes redish cheeks.

What? ohh... not doing what she....got it. Still not important.

Even Sydney killing some innocent kid in a car accident on his post 40 years ago is nonsense and has no more relevance than his cheating and divorcing his first wife.

I don't care. I believe in Adam Smith, and he was quite clear that Christian values must be a part of the free market system: we must be our brother's keeper, the wealthy can afford to pay more to see that the poor have housing, food and medical care. WHY? BECAUSE WE ARE BETTER THAN KIM JUNG IL'S GOVERNMENT, WE ARE BETTER THAN HAMAS. WHY? BECAUSE SS DISABILITY WORKED. BECAUSE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE HELPS. BECAUSE WORKER'S COMPENSATION IS SOCIALISM AND I AM GRATEFUL. WHY? BECAUSE JESUS SAID I GIVE UNTO YOU A NEW COMMANDMENT - TO LOVE ONE ANOTHER. AND WHEN POOR PEOPLE DIE BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO HEALTH INSURANCE OR THE INSURANCE COMPANY REFUSES TO PAY FOR CANCER TREATMENT, OR HOMELESS VETERANS FREEZE TO DEATH UNDER BRIDGES OR A CHILD IN WV GOES TO SCHOOL AND/OR BED HUNGRY, WE ARE ALL DIMINISHED.

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Obama008:

Thats about right.

For a right leaning pollster.

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hirshnoc:

ARG is right. These polls are way too tight.

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Rippleeffect:

These polls are getting boring. No movement.

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decided:

ARG has one of the worst ratings over at 538.

However, what you can take from it is the relative development to their prior polls. The last one was O +4, so +1 for Obama.

no surge in sight.

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sunnymi:

While the national ballot has remained unchanged since the last week of September, Barack Obama continues to gain electoral votes. In the September 20-22 survey when Obama was leading McCain 280 to 258 in electoral votes, 26% of Obama's national ballot share of 48% came from states where Obama was leading and 26% of McCain's national ballot share of 46% came from states where McCain was leading.

Obama now leads in 30 states with a total of 375 electoral votes and John McCain leads in 21 states with a total of 163 electoral votes.

Obama could lose Florida, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia and still have 278 electoral votes.

Approximately 72% of Obama's national ballot share of 50% comes from states where Obama leads.

Approximately 39% of McCain's national ballot share of 45% comes from states where McCain leads.

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DTM:

ARG's weekly release always amuses me, since for all the drama around here it has been showing a steady race since the end of September.

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boomshak:

MIKE ALLEN IS A F*CKING LYING SCUMBAG.

Is that good enough for you?

Meanwhile, yet another poll showing this sucker is close.

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boomshak:

If Mike Allen isn't lying, let's have him name his source.

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sunnymi:


@boomshak, don't you get it....Look at the internals it is the electoral college that matters....72% of Obama vote is in states where he is ahead and only 39% of McCain's vote comes from states he is ahead....In simple words most of McCain's vote will go down as a WASTE....You can celebrate all you want about the total margin but it will get you nowhere!

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Dewey1858:

What I want to know is, who's going to remove those Straight Talk Express tire marks from Palin's expensive threads before they're donated to charity.

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sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "If Mike Allen isn't lying, let's have him name his source."

He would if the source did not beg him not to name him....just wait another week and you will have a bee-line to talk without the cover of anonymity!

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hou04:

INSIDER ADVANTAGE/POLITICO

COLORADO
Obama 53
McCain 45

PENNSYLVANIA
Obama 51
McCain 42

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NW Patrick:

Considering Bush was up 1.5 heading into election day '04 I'll take up 5 by a Republican leaning pollster. GOOD RESULT! BLOW OUT. 5% nationally IS A BLOW OUT.

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Inkan1969:

Being called a f---ing lying scumbag by boomshak is the same as being called a weirdo pervert by Michael Jackson.

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The_Huntsman:

Obviously no campaign insider is going to reveal themselves when talking smack about their own VP candidate. But it's clear they want to make it known that they blame Palin for their loss. Wait until after the campaign and the venom will REALLY fly.

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abraxaf:

Mike Allen is basically Mark Halperin mk. 2... anyone who actually reads Politico could tell you that calling him liberally biased is a complete joke.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

boom - use your real name and address - so quick to call out lies and hide behind the veil of the internet. Typical Rep.

how much money you have riding on Sydney over at Intrade? $0.00. You know you would rather have $100 in hand then have someone put $500 on Sydney in Intrade in your name.

The lying scum bags are Sydney and Malibu. Who talk about overturning Roe and then say but I'm not for this restriction or that, like the states would not then have free reign to criminalize the sale and possession of contraception or force 12 y.o. rape victims to have a child even if they were at high risk of toxemia and death.

Just b/c the MSM wont call bs on their 2-faced devil talk, don't make it any less evil.

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NW Patrick:

***BREAKING NEWS*** MCCAIN SURGING TO A LOSS IN INDIANA!!!!**** BREAKING NEWS *** love - Boom.

(AP) - THE POLL: South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV, presidential race in Indiana among likely voters (11 electoral votes).

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 48 percent, John McCain 47 percent.

OF INTEREST: A similar poll taken in late September for the same news organizations found McCain with 46 percent support to 45 percent for Obama. The new poll found 46 percent naming the economy as the top issue in deciding their vote for president _ an increase of 10 percentage points from the earlier poll.

THE DETAILS: Conducted by telephone Oct. 23-25 by Maryland-based Research 2000 of 600 likely voters. The margin of sampling error plus or minus 4 percentage points.


(Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)

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sunnymi:


Any national poll you look at over the last month or so you will notice this:
McCain's ceiling: 45-46
Obama's floor: 47-48

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douglasdao:

Every single poll has Obama leading by more than the margin of error.

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asquared:

So this Boom guy hangs his hat on national polls that show a steady +5 O and state ones that show 4-7 +O, umm, that isn't close and there are not trends to show this will change in the next week.

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[nemesis]:

"Being called a f---ing lying scumbag by boomshak is the same as being called a weirdo pervert by Michael Jackson."

LOL, that's so fitting, because I think it's ALSO the same thing as being called a weirdo pervert by boomshak as well.

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NW Patrick:

Let's get real here. Indiana is ENOUGH said. Dem up 1 in INDIANA? And this is about the FIFTH or 6th poll to confirm this. If you are a Republican and you are even this close in Indiana with the Dem, you've LOST the national election in a landslide. Mark my words.

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ctj:

Uh oh! Obama is only up by 9 in PA now! I for the life of me cannot figure out what McCain is doing in a state that has not gone to the GOP in 20 years and speaking frankly Obama is a much better candidate than Kerry or Gore. If memory serves Michael (I ran the worst campaign in history until John McCain decided to come along) Dukakis came within 5 points in PA?

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laguna_b:

Who is Mike Allen?

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straight talk:

OBAMA # ARE CLIMBING AND HE HASN'T EVEN DONE HIS 30 MIN SPECIAL YET! ARE CAMPAIGNED WITH BILL CLINTON YET! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!!!! RUN FOR COVER REPUBLICANS!!!!! SAVE YOURSELF AND ENDORSE OBAMA LIKE THE SMART CONSERVATIVES ARE DOING!!!!!!!!!!!

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M2:

hou04, those PA and CO pretty much tell the whole story. Obama's got a stranglehold on the Kerry 04 states. He's got CO. He's got NM. He's got IA. everything else is window dressing.

Unless McCain can change that equation, the outcome of this election is a foregone conclusion.

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mac_1103:

But it's clear they want to make it known that they blame Palin for their loss.

Well, that's really very unfair to the Governor. They should be blaming McCain for picking her as his running mate.

...talk about overturning Roe and then say but I'm not for this restriction or that, like the states would not then have free reign to criminalize the sale and possession of contraception

I'm not a constitutional law scholar or anything, but I'm pretty sure that they'd have to overturn Griswold v. Connecticut for states to have free rein to ban contraception.

I for the life of me cannot figure out what McCain is doing in a state that has not gone to the GOP in 20 years...

What's so hard to figure out? McCain simply cannot get to 270 without PA. He has no choice but to bust his tail to win there, no matter what the polls say.

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cinnamonape:

Boom is reacting like "Godz Drilla from Wasilla" is his new messiah or something? Jeesh! One "source" from within the McCain campaign thinks that Caribou Barbie is a "Whack Job" and he's freakin' out and wants to guillotine that person.

This is how fragile the facade is for the right-wingers...if a scintilla of light creeps into their little world from the outside then they panic like cockroaches.

Boom! Take it easy! Maybe sniff some farts...science says it might be good for your blood pressure!

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laguna_b:

@cinnamonape
"if a scintilla of light creeps into their little world from the outside then they panic like cockroaches."

Great line! LOL

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angrytoxicologist:

@mac_1103

You're clearly not a political operative (please take that as a compliment). Here's why no one understands PA: He can't win. McCain's camp should know that by now. Instead of making a fool of himself and his campaign he should focus on areas where he and Palin can help congressional races. This is standard practice and one of the reasons that the RNC is so livid with McCain (especially given the state of the Senate races). If you remember, Dole and Dukakis both did this; it what you are expected to do as a sort of quid pro quo for taking national comittee $$. Hope that helps.

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OneAngryDwarf:

When is McCain going to get that this is over and fall on his sword?

I personally hope never and that he keeps fighting right to the bitter end. I'd love to see the Senate seats in GA and KY turn blue (along with MN, OR and several other likely pickups) so that Obama can have a mandate to rule for at least the next 2 years.

Crank out some legislation to standardize the voting process, roll back some stupid tax cuts, give us back some of our civil liberties, etc.

Keep fighting John you can win. Keep channeling Vietnam and telling us how we can win if we just keep fighting. Context doesn't matter just keep slugging away champ...

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What's with this incessant talk by McCain about how he guarantees a win and that the polls are wrong and that he'll win in a squeaker and we'll be up late on election night until the results are know???

What's with all the specifics? Does he know something no one else does? Did Bush and Diebold guarantee him a victory? Are they getting ready to cheat?

Seems a little specific to just be a rallying the troops comment.

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Chester:

@ Boom,
Why would Mike Allen lie? It would mean the end of his journalistic career if he pulled a stunt like that, besides how much worse is "wacko" than "diva?" The fact is that the MacCamp is fundamentally sexist; they picked a woman in a moment of strategic idiocy and they don't know how to deal with her!

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richardkreed:

Nevertheless, once the hatred, rage and invective is put aside, the race IS getting closer, although Lord Obama, with the help of the Dementors in the media, is still clearly in the lead.

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M2:

Personally, I don't think McCain is using the "threesome" image of Obama, Pelosi and Reid enough.

It's got to register better than "Obama's a Godless commie ... no wait, he's a fanatical Muslim ... no wait, he and his minister have perverted the message of Christianity." That's just stupid.

If you're going to put something crazy and desperate out there, I say kinky Democratic politics is the way to go. "Can you imagine that threesome? Just think of what will go on when you put Barack Obama and Harry Reid alone in a room with Nancy Pelosi." It's all kinds of awful, but I bet it pushes some swing voter buttons.

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zombieflanders:

boomshak:

Meanwhile, yet another poll showing this sucker is close.

decided:

However, what you can take from it is the relative development to their prior polls. The last one was O +4, so +1 for Obama.


All aboard the FAIL boat!

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BigTex:

If Obama has the massive leads in NY, CA, Ill., Mich., among the big states and MCain has only Texas with the big lead. And among the next tier of large states like PA, OH, FL, VA, NC, we find Obama with an overall lead. Then HOW in the heck is McCain within 5 points? Based on the large population areas he should be up by 10!

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GlassHalfFull:

Everybody, PLEASE ... getting into shouting matches with Boom and his ilk serves no purpose. He is either like Rush (doesn't believe what he says but likes the controversy) or Hannity (actually believes what he says because he's insane). Either way, nothing is going to change.

I PROPOSE A "BOOM BLACKOUT"! Let him post and post and post. NOBODY RESPOND and we'll see if he sticks around. My guess is that he won't get that same perverse thrill if nobody answers.

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MsJohnson:

Surge anyone? Anybody? Anyone? Aww.

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damitajo1:

It's so funny how so many Obama supporters are demonizing the pollster, but the complete summary of the results shows Obama with a huge electoral college lead and virtually says that it's impossible for him to lose. Do people read anything beyond headlines anymore? Sad.

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Keep VA Red:

@AngryDwarf

He's also going to pass the Freedom of Choice Act, which will once again allow doctors to suck the brains out of viable fetuses in late term abortions...what a refreshing thought!

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GlassHalfFull:

Oh, and by the way, it is absolutely believable that Repubs are turning on Palin. This race is lost, and they all know it. McCain is yesterday's news - irrelevant even before the election.

The battle is now on for control of the Republican Party. Either the neocons win, with Palin (wow!) as their figurehead, or the moderates win, with Romney or similar at the top.

If the neocons successfully seize control of the party (or keep control?), the Republicans will cease to be a force on the national level (and 80% of the state levels) until they are vanquished. It won't be the end of the party (I'm old enough to remember the 'death' of the GOP in 74 and 92 and the 'death' of the Demos in 80 and 94), but a pretty serious injury.

That's why so many Republicans who don't recognize their party anymore have come out for Obama.


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southern angler:

You libs are really going to hate the new gallup +2o, yeah I said 2

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Hans24:

BOOMSHAK:

Funny how when a Democrat talks about it, it's Socialism; when a Republican talks about it, it's being a Maverick and taking on "big oil":

"We're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

-- Gov. Sarah Palin, quoted by the New Yorker, a few weeks before she was nominated for vice president.


October 28, 2008

What amazing hypocrisy.

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Lou-NH:

This race is on autopilot unless something really groundbreaking happens. The composite of all of these polls shows a remarkably stable race. Zogby is seeking cover behind Gallups traditional model and Gallup is seeking cover behind its expanded model. I think even Zoom would agree that there are more registered democrats voting in this election than republicans. The real question is will it be +3%, +5% or +10%. Therein will lie the real gap.

@NYCREALAMERICAN
amen

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Lou-NH:

@KEEP VA RED

Obama has been willing to agree to limit late term abortions as have many democrats with the exception for when the mothers health is at risk. The only reason this is not the law of the land is that the neocons can't compromise on anything. Reasonable people can agree to disagree and work out a compromise. Don't you think it is time to get the religious right on board and accomplish something we can all LIVE with.

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Keep VA Red:

@Lou-NH

Sure Lou. While we're at it, why don't we just agree to murder all the people that we collectively decide we don't want. After all (aside from rape and incest), abortion is nothing more than allowing murder for the convenience of the mother (and father) who don't want the consequences of their actions to interfere with their life plans. Why is any different killing the baby in utero than say 1 year after its born and you decide you don't want it any more...is the crying of the out of utero baby that gets you upset?

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LMills259:

Oh, my. The abortion thing again. The problem isn't that half of the USA approves baby murder. The problem is we don't agree when life begins. Personally, I think it's when we can detect brain waves. How can something have a soul when it can't think? And nobody can prove me wrong, because it's what I believe.

Anyway, back to the polls. Try this. Find one of those interactive EV maps, like at npr.org. Change Virginia to blue, as it probably will be (7 to 8% right now). Now try to find ANY combination of red states that
1) isn't preposterous, and
2) has McCain winning.
Can't do it, can you? Game over.

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