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US: Obama 50, McCain 45 (Daily Kos 10/27-29)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/27-29,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 45

 

Comments
Dan:

crappy day on Kos. If I was a suspicious guy; I'd think they were motivating us to GOTV.
nahhh...

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muckinello:

Can you link me to the MAson Dixon PA poll?

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Angus Mc:

Looks like the race is stabilizing at Obama +5 or +6.
DKos: 50-45
Zogby: 50-44
Rass: 51-46 (probably)

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jeepdad:

If a +5 day rolls off, and another +5 is added, then how does McCain gain a point? Must be a decimal thing.

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huetdebd:

During the 1990s, while he served as chairman of the International Republican Institute (IRI), McCain distributed several grants to the Palestinian research center co-founded by Khalidi, including one worth half a million dollars.
A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, "West Bank)

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Parah Salin':

@Angus Mc:

"Looks like the race is stabilizing at Obama +5 or +6.
DKos: 50-45
Zogby: 50-44
Rass: 51-46 (probably)"

Not not quibble, but today's Zogby poll is 50-43, (50.2-43.3 to be exact).

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DecaturMark:

With regard to Obama's 30 minute commercial last night, I have to say that it was well done and will solidify those already planning to vote for him as well as move some of those undecided his way. It will not change the mind of anyone who was already leaning to McCain. But at this point that is all the Obama needs.

The broader effectiveness of the commercial is that the media will be talking about this for the rest of the day. Trying to gauge reaction among the various voting blocs and punditry. And that is a day that McCain cannot afford to lose. So not only did the commercial help motivate his base and some of the undecided, it prevents McCain from any message he would like to get out today.

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johncoz:

@jeepdad

The weighting algorithms are almost certainly run against the aggregated sample, with a different result to averaging the separately weighted daily samples.

don't know for sure of course, but that's how I'd do it.

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tjampel:

same single day numbers as the day before. Looks like white males, southerners (slightly), and Hispanics (slightly as well) moved towards McCain over the past 2 weeks. Looking stable right now though in the daily numbers for the last 3 days.

I expect to see little if any tightening absent a major event between now and the 4th

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Shaq Daddy:

Same as yesterday.

Look for the numbers tommorrow to see what effect the infomercial had on things...

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abraxaf:

Weird that Zogby is wider than R2K and Rass when it has a much narrower gap in Party ID for its sample.

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tjampel:

not just the pre-recorded part of the infomercial was well done....the segue to a live event was flawless, and having Bill Clinton teaming up with Obama in Orlando will also make it difficult for McCain to get his message (his latest attack that is) out there today

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Nekrotzar:

BREAKING NEWS - HOLY COW, THIS IS IT!

Slate is reporting that Obama wants people to watch more television (read to the end of the Family Values column). Anyone who has read Orwell knows how terrifying this is! Obama's Stalinist leanings are finally revealed. Even the MSM can't ignore this story. Once this gets out voters will start abandoning Obama in droves.

Statistical tie by this time next week, turning Paisley by weekend! McCain has it in the bag!

:-)

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ctj:

Bill O'Reilly I believe hinted to a "great day" for McCain with Ras today, any truth to that from reading the tea leaves?

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StandardDeviation:

Brace yourselves for the new NBC poll in PA showing the lead there down to +4...

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Angus Mc:

Is Ras being O51-M46 considered good news?

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tjampel:

zogby may be in his "tweaking stage" at this point. His livelihood depends on some degree of accuracy in the final shake-out; it's not like he's happy to the butt of countless jokes by every other pollster and analyst. I don't think Zogby is personally incompetent, just brash in his wanting to be "ahead of the curve" regarding Internet polls (dumb idea at this point) and inflexible in his methodology more than a week out from an election by sticking with exit polls from 4 years prior. Of course he will now do his best to get it right and can say that, in the course of doing his thousands of interviews he's noticed that the 2008 demographics are truly different, enthusiasm levels are different, AA's are more committed to voting or have actually voted in extremely high numbers, etc.

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johncoz:

@ctj:
"Bill O'Reilly I believe hinted to a "great day" for McCain with Ras today, any truth to that from reading the tea leaves?"

Seen his electoral map? That idiot doesn't up from down.

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ctj:

Angus,

Is that a confirmed #?

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Observer:

Using only one Gallop, the traditional LV model the averages for the past 7 days are:

Thurs..6.7
Fri.......7.1
Sat......8.0
Sun.....6.9
Mon....5.5
Tue.....5.0
Weds...4.8

Last week Obama had a good week with 5 successive increases up until the 8.0 on Sat for polling on Friday. Since then there has been a McCain trend of so far 4 successive increases in the Average. Overall the 9 days have gone from 5.8 to 4.8 which is not significant. But it will be significant if the trend continues to favour McCain for a few more days.

However within the figures there were yesterday four of the eight polls giving a lead of only 3%. The mean currently is 4.8% but the mode is 3.0%

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webim:

What the HELL ??

Pennsylvania
+4

??????????????

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johncoz:

@Angus Mc:
"Is Ras being O51-M46 considered good news?"

Sure would be :-)

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jeepdad:

When are we going to see some non-tracker national polls? Fox, CBS, AP ... anything in the works?

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zen:

Mason-Dixon poll is already favoting Maccain 3-4 points.

I think 8 point gap is right one for PA.

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tar_heel:

Daily Kos overweights independents (only 71% aggregate R/Ds in their sample). The poll only includes 35% Dems as opposed to 40% in Ras. Because Obama's core support comes from Democrats, there is actually little to no sampling bias in his favor here. Where this particular poll is most valuable is in gauging the movement of independents. I think most would agree that M has made progress among independents, which is reflected in this poll. It is not going to be enough to win M the election, however, unless the Reps. also peel off some of O's strong support among Democrats.

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MDB1974:

My guess if Ras was looking good for mccain drudge would have leaked it.

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sandman:

If PA is 4, and mason dixon is a respected polster, then the race has closed down nationally.

Second point. Kos poll is using a 9% DEM ID advantage. That would seem counter to early voting thus far. +5 - + 6 would seem far more realistic. If so, KOS is about +2. Just a thought. Keep in mind also, Ras is already using a 7.3% advantage in DEM ID.

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zen:

Mason-Dixon poll has been always favoting Maccain 3-4 points.

I think 8 point gap is right one for PA.

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straight talk:

There is a new tracking poll showin OBama up 13+ in PA! And A new CNN poll showin OBama up +12! It can be 4 or it could be 13, but OBama still wins! Nbc Is partisan! Do not think for a second that they would give any hope for the McCain Camp without a hidden agenda! 30+ polls have obama up +10. 1 has him below 5%?

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Angus Mc:

McCain had a very good Sunday in both Ras and Gallup. Both roll off today so both should move toward Obama if they are replaced with say, an Obama +5 day.

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bmrKY:

"Angus Mc:
Is Ras being O51-M46 considered good news?"

No, that wouldn't be good news, it would be GREAT news... FOR JOHN MCCAIN!

Sorry, I've just always wanted to say that.

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ricbrig:

@MDB1974 I think it is also possible that RAS sooner or later would summon Drudge about leaking their numbers, it makes buying a premiership useless

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johncoz:

@Observer

I think the figures tell us more about the LV1 model than about the race.

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tjampel:

@Angus Mc

51-46 from Ras this close to November 4th is awesome news in that the 50%-52% for Obama hasn't budged in more than a month and is enough to win 100% of the time (given the fact that the electoral college advantage is with Obama this year).

But more than just momentary relief, it would be great news as well, because, with just a few days to go I'd want to see the trend moving towards Obama, indicating both that his soft support is firming and that remaining undecideds are NOT necessarily breaking at 70% for McCain, as many pundits, including Chuck Todd believe they will.

In the end looks like Obama with get only slightly higher white support than Kerry, but much higher non-white support, and people of color (both AA, hispanic, and even Asian-americans this yr) are a slightly larger share of the voters now than in 2004 and the look of this country's future. Some of this is due to immigration and higher birth rates, and some is due to a large number of new registrants in these groups.

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Dan:

Observer,

Gallup is telling us a story here. There last two LV polls were +2 and +3. The expanded LV polls are still unproven, and based on larger turnout by younger voters and minorities. If they turn out in the "expected" numbers, then Obama is safe. If not ...

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Mount Monadnock:

What am I missing?? Daily Kos website shows 6 pt margin. O-50; M-44.

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huetdebd:

PA +4. lmao. yeah. there's an outlier if i've ever seen one. let's say for a minute that's acurate. i think it's funny how republicans somehow think that a +4 PA number is good for mccain. crazy.

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BigTex:

He can have PA. He will have spent too much money and time there, while he squandered closer races in Ohio, CO and VA.

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huetdebd:

During the 1990s, while he served as chairman of the International Republican Institute (IRI), McCain distributed several grants to the Palestinian research center co-founded by Khalidi, including one worth half a million dollars.
A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, "West Bank)

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johncoz:

@Mount Monadnock:
What am I missing?? Daily Kos website shows 6 pt margin. O-50; M-44.


No you're correct, and everyone else is wrong. Well spotted :-)

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Inkan1969:

Are there any Ras premium members who can confirm the Ras daily poll? Their website hasn't been updated yet.

And does anyone have a link for this Mason-Dixon poll? It's the only poll with such a small gap; we need to see other polls verify its claim. I've also heard that there's a new Mason-Dixon poll that shows M48 044 in Arizona. Is that true?

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carl29:

Mount Monadnock,

It could be a mistake from Pollster, haven't you noticed that some times he screws the headings? We'll see if he fix it.

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boomshak:

R2K only samples 26% republicans.

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WhereisMitt:

M-D showing McCain up by only 4 in Arizona is true.

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Inkan1969:

@huetdebd

Further, the PLO are OUR boys now. The PLO became the Palestinian National Authority. Yasser Arafat's group was named Fatah, and President Mahmoud Abbas succeeded him. It's this group, Fatah, that the U.S. appears to be rooting for now, against Hamas. So when Palin attacks the PLO, she's attacking "our side".

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ricbrig:

The 50-45 for Daily Kos is what appears on my screen. It mus be a refresh problem

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TheCanadian:

Boom and the others sample more, and McCain is still losing in those as well.

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BigTex:

I am concerned the party ID weighting could be hindering an accurate poll in some states.

Here is the key question:

*Which Poll is Weighted the Most Republican (yet still considered a reputable polling operation)?

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boomshak:

GWU/Battleground O+3 yet again. Poll has exact same result 5 days in a row - odd.

CONGRESSIONAL PREFERENCE:
The Congressional Preference advantage for Democrats has shrunken to 4 points in this poll.

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carl29:

Inkan1969

Apparently those are their numbers. Nonetheless, the most important issue is that similar numbers have been reported by other pollsters in AZ as well:

CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 McCain 53 Obama 46

Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 McCain 51 Obama 46

Arizona State 10/23 - 10/26 McCain 46 Obama 44

In all the polls out of the state McCain leads by mid-single digits :-)

*The McCain campaign is also Robocalling people in AZ smearing Obama, uh?


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carl29:

boomshak,

So, is Battleground on the "good" kid list? or the "bad"? or the maybe-so? :-)

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Predicted Ras number for today

O 50
M 47

(no change)

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Napoleon Complex:

Another great headline to help the McCain surge. :-) Poor bastard can't catch a break. You just have to feel sorry for them at this point. More tax breaks to the oil companies!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/news/companies/exxon_earnings/index.htm?cnn=yes

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Inkan1969:

@voltron

I thought people already said it was O51-M46

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Mount Monadnock:

@johncoz

Thanks!

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ricbrig:

@Inkan I don't think those are confirmed numbers

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mrzookie:

"GWU/Battleground O+3 yet again. Poll has exact same result 5 days in a row - odd."

Actually, the "unaided ballot" number, which is reported weekly, shows O +1.

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mrzookie:

Clarification:

"GWU/Battleground O+3 yet again. Poll has exact same result 5 days in a row - odd."

Actually, the "unaided ballot" number, which is reported weekly, shows O +1 OVER LAST WEEK.

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Northeastern Republican:

im not making this up, but word last night was that the ras poll today is for the first time going to show mccain trusted on the economy one point over barry. we'll find out in a few minutes. id be very suprised if this is true but if it is, i have no idea what it will do to the actual poll numbers themselves...

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Marcus:

you kow what is strange. DKos has McCain leading 56-38 in the South (FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR). But when i take â look at 538s avgs of these states and adjust their size to the popular vote a little it comes down to a MAX lead of +6-8 for McCain .. about 54-46 or 53-47. Seems a big gap between the 2 numbers.How come Obama is polling only 38% in the south with big states like FL,GA,VA, NC where he is doing well. Looks fishy to me.

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hou04:

INDIANA (Selzer Poll)

Obama 46
McCain 45

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Inkan1969:
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mysticlaker:

Rasmussen
O-51
M-46

Confirmed.

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UpperLeft:

Greast news in IN!! Link?

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Thatcher:

@Inkan1969 -

Thanks, I was just about to point that out myself.

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Napoleon Complex:

Here's another one. Joe the Plumber hires a publicist. Another great vetting job by team McCain.

http://blog.cmt.com/2008-10-29/joe-the-plumber-hires-a-nashville-publicist/

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TheCanadian:

And the McCain surge continues... not.

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Inkan1969:

Now it's verified, Ras DOES have it O51-M46. Looks like that bad Sunday result rolled off.

I hear that Ras is now predicting a 364EV win for Obama?

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KMartDad08:

Selzer is a very trusted pollster in the limited states they poll in. Not that it matters as far as the EV is concerned, but a close race in IN is a good sign for Obama.

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huetdebd:

i'm an obama supporter. have been since the beginning. but i have to admit. i really like palin. she has done a great job for our country. day after day she continues to put her parties needs behind the needs of our country. she is doing a great job of helping to elect barack obama. keep up the good work sarah. us democrats love you even though the mccain campaign is turning on you. hang in there.

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tjampel:

Ras: It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%.

This is the 35th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%. With the exception of yesterday, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 46% during that stretch (see trends).

Within their own party, both candidates lead by identical 86% to 12% margins while Obama has a six-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

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vmval1:

@Boomshak, mysticlaker:

Have you guys written to Mark & apologised?

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ricbrig:

I just read the statesment about the shrinking economy...it's ridiculous! They are basically saying: 'You know people, we have nothing to say about this, just that with Obama it would be worse'
Well...it's not what you as a leader should tell in a moment of crisis!

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Just put a big smile on my face : ) that 50-47 number yesterday almost gave me a cornary. 51-46, let's hold that 5 point margin through election day.

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hou04:

@ UpperLeft

Here is the link for INDIANA (Selzer)... Obama +1

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081030/NEWS0502/810300379

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

Rasmussen is also now projecting Obama will win the Presidency, 364-174, with the democrats gaining 7-8 seats in the Senate, just shy of the "60" mark.

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johncoz:

So Ras is 51-46. Their write-up virtually admits that yesterday's number was a bit of a rogue (bit like Palin).

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pbcrunch:

Re the Ras poll... Obama gaining two points from yesterday means one thing: JOHN MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!

Sorry, I can't resist.

McSame/Failin', O'Never.

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BlixaCat:

Rasmussen up to 5 (from 3): 51-46!

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MDB1974:

RAS
51 O
46 M

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bmrKY:

@Napoleon Complex

Aw, gosh darnit, dang flabbit, doncha know that Joe just wants to live the American dream by ranting about the evils of social security and starting a country music singing career? Who are we to destroy this "wonderful" mans American Dream? Why does Barack Obama want to tax poor ol' Joes imaginary dream of owning his own business, writing a book, and starting a singing career?

Joe's just like one of us, doncha know!

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Trosen:

Here's your Ras..

Thursday, October 30, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisement
After showing the candidates just three points apart yesterday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Thursday returns to the range that has defined the race for over a month. It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%.


Sorry Billo.. you're talking out your ass again.

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Thatcher:

It was obviously a rounding thing yesterday that brought Rasmussen to the 50-47 mark. Back to steady-as-she-goes.

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mysticlaker:

@vm...

I apologized to everyone yesterday. I am sorry for my rant. I should not have lost my temper but the race-baiting put me over the edge. It is inexcusable, and I apologize.

Mark, if you need an apology directly I will be glad to so.

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tjampel:

97% for Obama and McCain and at least 1.5% likely for 3rd party candidates and write-ins. Few are undecided and who cares how they break.

Where is the evidence for Obama soft support at this point which can be peeled away from McCain? Obama has held his base of 50%-52% for 35 days now.

Nevertheless we have massive work to do to ensure that that this all turns out the way we now think it will. Complacency is poison.

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carl29:

It is official: "uncle" Ras is on the "bad" kid list, but the question remains...didn't 'PapaBear" Bill O. say last night that "uncle" Ras' numbers would be good for McMaverick? Please don't break my heart; don't tell me that "PapaBear" wasn't telling the truth :-(

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OneAngryDwarf:

Palin sees a dip in her favorability ratings nationally and in Alasks

Palin Tanks

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UpperLeft:

@hou04

Thanks for the link. Selzer comes through!! Though i wonder what the deal is with 9% undecided...time to send in Joe Biden. Or something.

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political_junki:

Rass: obama 51 mccan 46. 2 points obama from yesterday

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hou04:

Note what Ann Selzer says about Indiana poll:

"This race is really in the hands of your African-American community," Selzer said.

Obama has a real shot at Indiana... it will boil down to the suburbs of Chicago -- city of Gary. Also Indianapolis. Large African-American population there.

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jeepdad:

Dkos had 50-45 early this morning. Are you guys saying it's been changed to 50-44? Fkos is blocked at my worksite.

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jeepdad:

Dkos had 50-45 early this morning. Are you guys saying it's been changed to 50-44? Dkos is blocked at my worksite.

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McShame:

So what's the deal with dailykos/R2000 tracker? With an oversampling of democrats, wouldn't you expect a much larger lead for Obama?

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BigTex:

Help me out here...

I am concerned the party ID weighting could be hindering an accurate poll in some states.

Here is the key question:

*Which Poll is Weighted the Most Republican (yet still considered a reputable polling operation)?

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jeepdad:

@hou04:

Watch out for Gary, Ind. on election night. They'll come in very late, and near 100% turnout. :)

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sunnymi:

boomshak, you said "Let's see what ole-Rassie has to say this morning. Bill O'Reilly teased last night that Rassie's numbers would be VERY good for McCain today.

Right....exactly where McCain wants....didn't he say the same thing when he was behind about 6 the last time!

Bill O's teasers are just like his electoral map - "Useless!"

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ricbrig:

Please take a look at RCP average, it looks like McCain is really bouncing against hi 44 something ceiling in the average. Whatever... it is 5 days to go

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carl29:

BigTex,

The easier answer would be: Rely on pollsters with good track record in that particular state.

*I am honestly skeptical of pollsters without good record polling X or Y state.

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oicu:

@McShame:

it isn't oversampling Democrats. If anything it undersamples both dems and repubs. See the Rasmussen party id breakdowns, which they publish each week. Their Dem figure is higher than R2K's. Their margin (7.2%) is slightly lower (R2K is 9%).

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cambridge blue:

Hotline 48-42. Obama -1 from yesterday.

All the polls seem to be hanging around +5 Obama.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/dailytracker/

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hou04:

DIAGEO/HOTLINE

48/42

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Windependent:

Ras is at O+5. Looks like Sunday was McCain's best day ever, and it's dropped from the trackers.

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thoughtful:

I am slightly disappointed by the deadheat in Selzer's Indiana poll.

A landslide and clear mandate would make all the difference

The state of the national tracking play is really unchanged for more than a month with Obama holding and consolidating his trend from mid-September. A bit of noise here and there. But the average is + 6% to Obama. Lets just stick to the Ras & Gallup RV for direct comparisons. Obama at 50+%.

This is now for the Obama Campaign to GOTV.

Another unhappy morning for John McCain

390+EVs

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sunnymi:


Anyone having Premium subscription could you verify if the internals on Rasmussen match the O+5 number out today or is she still manipulating it like he did the last 2 days.

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muckinello:

To paraphrase Boom (nowhere to be seen when bad news hit):
for Obama to go from +3 to +5 in one day he had to have a monster day in there, like a +7 or +9. McCaindots, be afraid! Landslide by Tuesday

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hou04:

As our buddy Trosen said yesterday, GWU/Battleground seems to be copying and pasting same 49/46 for 2 weeks now :)

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BigTex:

But what if the country is truly 50-50 in party ID??? The is the race a tie right now! Forgive me if I puke!!

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mysticlaker:

@thoughtful

I think Obama will take Indiana. Obama is going to continue to use Ill. resources for GOTV, which will take a close state like IN to blue.

Remember, this is a state that hasn't been blue since 64...

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NashvilleLefty:

@mysticlaker

No worries. It drives me bat**** crazy when some weirdo Christian Republican decides to tell me (who is Jewish) what real Jews should think of Israel or Democratic candidates. And if I can put on my Southern hat (I grew up and live in the south and have Confederate ancestry), Southern Angler's "your negro" comment was really vile.

But think of it this way: the more intensely they fume and rant, the the more certain it is that their party is going to take a beating.

Remember, "No Drama."

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political_junki:

WOW Look at early voting.
Truly amazing. GA, NC, NM and NV specially, unbelievably good news. We maybe able to call NV before election day even :))

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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thoughtful:

@mystic

Ann Selzer had IN +3% O back in September, when every other pollster seem to have M in front, so I was hoping for some progress.

I have IN + MO + GA in my 390 EVs

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mago:

Re R2K/DKos:

It's 50-45. I don't what caused someone to say otherwise, maybe their browser wasn't refreshing.

@BigTex: Hmmm, you want the most GOP-friendly sampling? Odd, 'cause all the evidence from early turnout is that this is _hugely_ different from 2004, with massive upswings in the percentage of Democrats.

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mysticlaker:

@10 AM John McCain holds a "Road to Victory" rally at a junior high school in Defiance, Ohio

afterwards, McCain is expected to participate in a sprited game of dodgeball.

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Scribo:

Rasmusssen 51-46

"After showing the candidates just three points apart yesterday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Thursday returns to the range that has defined the race for over a month. It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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Thatcher:

@thoughtful & others

Indiana is going to be close
North Carolina is going to be close

But ... those are the "icing on the cake" states ... breathe deep and realize we are biting our fingernails over states that no Democrat has been close in a long time.

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hou04:

@ thoughtful

Keep in mind that this new IN poll is well within MOE, so Obama still may be +3 or 4

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carl29:

BigTex,

If you are talking about nation-wide poll, so believe Gallup TRADITIONAL (the smallest margin) and Zogby (he uses the last party ID which means roughly the same % of Dem. and Rep.).

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JCK:

Things are looking GRIM for McCain. He can't break out in Rasmussen, which is still stuck at O 50-52; M 44-46.

For him, a good poll is losing by 4 points in PA. Remember that almost every other poll in PA is showing a 9-13 point Obama lead.

He's trailing badly in both VA and CO. NH is out of reach (recent polls have Obama up by as much as 24(!) points), and NV is trending towards out of reach (where McCain hasn't lead in a single poll since September, and the most recent polls show 4-12(!) point Obama lead).

Obama has small leads in both OH and FL. McCain cannot survive a loss in either state.

Finally, states which should be reliably red (MO, NC, and IN) are true tossups. States where Obama should have absolutely no chance (MT, AZ, ND) are within striking distance.

I guess GWU/Battleground has the race at +3 Obama. But if Obama wins by three points nationally, it will be an electoral college blowout.

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JCK:

Seriously, if you're sweating IN, NC, and MO, that means McCain is in very serious trouble.

Think about a converse situation. How would you feel if Obama MI, OR, and WI were true tossups?

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mysticlaker:

@jck

On New Hamsphire. My wife and I both attempted to volunteer this weekend, but heard back from the Obama office that they are full for on the ground/phone banking to NH. We'll be calling other battlegrounds instead (not sure which ones, but I would not be surprised if they are more like Az, Ga, Mt, and ND). It seems that the Obama camp is utilizing there most proven volunteers for the final on the ground push this weekend.

In the last two weeks there have 2000 organized events for phone banking/canvassing/fund raising from Mass to NH to give you a sense of scale.

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Lou-NH:

Ras is confirmed at 51-46

Mason-Dixon in my opinion is another republican leaning pollster picked by NBC to provide cover for their democrat leaning tendencies. I don't put any weight into a poll that is off significantly from the average in the same time period.

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JCK:

@Lou,

I don't write of Mason-Dixon, as they did very well in 2004 (look at the realclearpolitics 2004 results, if you don't believe me). I think they're a reputable outfit, but I do view their polling as a "worst case scenario" for Obama. And even they have Obama leading in states like PA and VA.

@mystic

Interesting note on NH. The Obama campaign is probably pretty happy with where they are in NH, if they're turning away help.

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wotan:

Something strange about the Selzer poll. It has O gaining only 82% of the AA vote, well below the national average. If that number is an under-estimate, then O has a real advantage in Indiana, as of the polling date.

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oicu:

Selzer is a very good pollster. If she says IN is line-ball then it is. And if it is then McCain is dead.

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carl29:

@JCK,

The only problem I see with Mason-Dixon this year is its disparity with other pollsters in the state.

Look at the numbers in 2004:

Quinnipiac | 10/27-31 Bush 47 Kerry 47

Rasmussen | 10/25-31 Bush 47 Kerry 49

Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 Bush 46 Kerry 48

Strategic Vision(R)|10/25-27 Bush 48 Kerry 48

For some reason in 2004 Mason-Dixon was "in-tune" with other pollsters; however, that is not the case this time, who do you think is wrong?

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masselo:

guys,

I dont really care about national polls at this point.. have yall seen that new Mason Dixon polls that came out this morning? It has Obama up in PA only by 4 points and up by 2 points in Virginia.... this has got to be scary for the obama campaingn

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thoughtful:

McCain has been is serious trouble from the beginning. It's became a question, didn't it boom, of how big a hole he and his campaign were going to dig for themselves.

Going negative and getting called out as Liars in the middle of September really did widen the trough but then pronouncing that the economy is fundamentally sound sealed it with Republican moderates who were already disturbed by the Palin pick. How on earth did McCain think he was going to attract independents.

The obnoxious thought that somehow because Palin was a woman would somehow attract and retain Clinton feminist was bizarre.

No more happy mornings for John McCain

390+ EVs

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carl29:

masselo,

My advise to you, and any other "reasonable" observer, will be that it is prudent not to put all your eggs in one-single pollster's egg. If those Mason-Dixon numbers are true, other pollsters will show it as well. Believe me, know that Mason-Dixon came out with that finding, all pollsters will jump in to double-check.

*One single poll is just a fluke. 1, 2, 3, 4....it is a real thing :-)

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NashvilleLefty:

As opposed to all other polls, including those today, which have Obama up by far more.

Either you're a worrywort or a concern troll. Either way, stop it.

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DTM:

@thoughtful

Keep in mind that Bush won Indiana by 16 over Gore and 21 over Kerry. Obama winning Indiana would be something like McCain winning Massachusetts.

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bmrKY:

@masselo

Mason Dixon has always shown more favorable results for McCain than most others.

Trust me, if pollsters such as Mason Dixon and Rasmussen show a democrat leading in a state, then a democrat is leading in that state and by more than they are showing. Period.

There's also a Mason Dixon poll showing McCain only up by 4 in Arizona. If McCain only wins Arizona by 4, then he will lose Pennsylvania pretty handidly. REMEMBER: Pennsylvania has a 1.2 million voter registration advantage for dems over reps.

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carl29:

McCain robocalling his home state sounds subreal :-)

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DTM:

@masselo

Obviously it makes sense to look at all the polls rather than individual polls. And even then, if the worst pre-election polls still show you ahead in a state, that is a great position to be in.

In fact, idle question: did either Bush or Kerry win any state in 2004 in which they did not lead in at least one poll taken the week before?

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sotonightthatimightsee:

WOW!!!! If the CrazyKos has this as a 5% race for Obambi, then ya'll know it's pretty bad for him!

I've been saying it for months and I will say it again..this is gonna be very, very close race in all toss-up states!

As far as PA..I've watched many kool aid drinkers claiming PA is out of reach..well, what do you all have to say now? Don't speak about something you know nothing about! I am from PA and live in a heavy democratic area (The Lehigh valley) and support for McCain is very impressive. Move further North (Scranton, Poconos, Western PA) and McCain beats Obama 2-1! I said it before and I will say it again: Philly alone will not win PA for Obambi!!

Stay tuned folks!

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bmrKY:

sotonightthatimightsee

If that is the case, then why do no Pennsylvania polls show McCain with a lead, not even the conservative pollsters like MD and Ras? Mason Dixon also has McCain up by only 4 in his home state of Arizona. Is that valid in your opinion, or are only the polls that are "favorable" to McCain (which still show McCain far behind, by the way) valid?

You know it must be bad for McCain if even Uncle Ras has Obama up 5 and projects him to win 364 electoral votes!

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Lou-NH:

@JCK

I don't write-off any pollster but a quick look at 4 battleground states this year show a strong republican lean.

VA last M-D poll 10/21 @ +2% Obama
RCP Average - +7.6% Obama
closest pollster Rasmussen @ +4%

CO last M-D poll 10/1 @ Tie
RCP Average - +7.2% Obama
closest pollster Fox/Rasmussen @ +4%

OH last M-D poll 10/17 @ +1% McCain
RCP Average - +5.6% Obama
closest pollster Strategic Vision(R) +3% McCain

PA last M-D poll 10/30 @ +4% Obama
RCP Average - +9.5% Obama
closest pollsters Strategic Vision(R) +7% Obama & Rasmussen +7% Obama

My point is that M-D is bucking the trends and should be called on it. Without internals it is impossible to tell their assumptions and without some proof I view them as an outlier.

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TheLioness:

Look, McCain has been campaigning his ass off in PA, you didn't really think the race wouldn't tighten a little there did you?

What I am most puzzled and dismayed by, even though I'm NOT a McCain supporter I used to admire many things about the man, is that his judgment has become so incredibly faulty. a) He allowed the GOP machine to talk him into Sarah Palin, and b)He's allowing this Joe the Plumber huckster to make such a complete ass out of him and such a joke of his entire campaign. It feels like this grotesque metaphor for what the GOP is all about. Grab every possible opportunity to make a fast buck no matter what it costs everyone around you, even if it costs the very hand that lifted you up in the first place. Even FOX is all over the guy for his imbecilic statements. How can they let that man talk about foreign policy? He's obviously SO IGNORANT. Can't McCain see that jOE is just sucking every bit of financial gain out of this he can?

Nowadays I have this sort of sad visual of McCain all alone, wandering around the desert trying to be heard above the angry violence and other crap coming from the GOP, but every time he opens his mouth, somehow the GOP machine's words come out. It really feels like the poor dude's got this giant life/idea/hope sucking machine of a GOP campaign stabbing him in the head with a hypo filled with fear, confusion and nonsense. I've never seen the man look so old and confused in my life.

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Lou-NH:

@JCK

Although it is great to see these conservative pollsters still favoring Obama this late in the game.

As for NH GOTV, the campaign offices are doing a great job bringing together the right resources for the last 4 days. There are various commitees for accomodations, food, phone banking, canvassing, visibility, poll watching & transportation. I will be off Mon & Tues to perform many tasks and we have quite a few people from out of town coming. We will have our guest rooms filled and my wife and daughters will be supporting the food commitee for the last 4 days. It's going to be a big push.

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MDB1974:

OHIO! ABC CALLED IT! IT'S OVER!

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