Pollster.com

Another one in the "5 or 6" bracket. I am guessing that's about what the spread will be, which should translate into about a 340/198 or so EV spread.

You know, everyone keeps talking about what undecideds have done in the past and breaking 50-50. That doesn't seem to jive with current data. Go look at the graph for PA (sept-present). It's pretty clear to me from this that the tightening has come from undecideds going more decisively to McCain. The way this reads, though, is that they are only voters he previously lost earlier in Sept (i.e. he's only doing better with them, because they are ex-supporters). Still looks like a Obama victory, but spare me the 50/50 stuff for undecideds.

We've got two buckets here. Convincing win vs. blowout.

If I were to bet, I'd go with the 5 point win (52-47).

The way this reads, though, is that they are only voters he previously lost earlier in Sept (i.e. he's only doing better with them, because they are ex-supporters). Still looks like a Obama victory, but spare me the 50/50 stuff for undecideds.

But what if the ones that were prone to breaking GOP (i.e., disillusioned Republicans) already have? And the remaining undecideds are the traditional low info, apathetic, nonpartisan voters?

Marist has Obama up 9 nationally - some of these upper-range polls are starting to converge. Talk about a strong finish.

@angrytoxicologist

(I posted this on the last thread you put this ... but you have moved on to this one)

You can think what you like about undecideds - but based upon historical evidence, you are probably in for a letdown.

I've posted this link consistently for the past week about how undecided break in elections:

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm
But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.

So you will say - but neither candidate is the incumbent. True. But McCain is in the incumbent party and Obama is in the challenger party. And so ... today, on this site - Charles Franklin addresses this same topic:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_undecideds_split_19482004.php
For incumbent parties the median is 42 [percent of undecideds] and for challengers 53 [percent of undecideds]. (Means are less different-- 43 for incumbents to 50 for challengers.)

So, the fact of the matter is - Obama has the initial headstart when you look at history. Undecideds, more often than not, go for the challenger and challenging party. If McCain were to pick up a majority of the undecideds, he would be one of those rare cases.

Predicitions for today's FOX poll???

@hou04

Could go either way with that circus of a network. It is a matter of their credibility or their Republican pride.

@ BUS -
got a link for that new Marist poll?

I understand and agree with what you posted but, seriously, go look at the PA chart and it's already clear that McCain is picking up undecideds at a faster clip. Obama's support (at over 50%) is steady (i.e. he's not picking up undecideds; or at least not faster than he's losing supporters) but McCain is gathering them.

Basically, everyone is saying, well, it hasn't happened in the past but here it is happening right under our noses (at least in PA). For the argument that it breaks roughly 50/50 or to the non-incumbent party to work, all the polls in PA over the past week would have to be wrong.

oh, and BTW, it wouldn't be a let down, I'm voting for Obama!

GEORGIA (PPP)

O 50
M 48

@Trosen -

On the topic of the undecideds being "whiter" and "older" ... I understand that ... and that MAY be what might give McCain the ability to go against the grain.

However, "older", "whiter" key individuals and newspapers are endorsing and deciding on Obama every day. Even Cheney's 'hometown' newspaper, the Casper Star-Tribune, endorsed Obama. Yes, Casper Wyoming. Though they disagree with several of Obama's policies - they applaud his leadership skills, purpose and stability. And they really hate Palin as a pick

And that is one area that McCain can win on ... "older", "whiter" voters who just can get past the Palin pick.

I concur they might just stay home so as not to vote against their normal partisanship. But that would only affect Obama's portion of the undecideds as being a bigger part of a smaller pie. About 50% of the undecideds won't vote this year - and I would say about 2/5ths of them would have voted for McCain had he given them a reason to.

GA is neck-and-neck.

McCain 50
Obama 48
Barr 2

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/georgia-results.html

Upset is possible.

I expect Fox to show about a 3 or 4 point +O spread. They are hedging their bets but don't want to go as far as to predict a McCain victory and really piss off their viewers. (Remember, at the end of the day, this is a money-making venture, this TV thing). However.. they want it to appear within striking distance so that if we get any photo-finishes in crucial swing states like OH, FL, VA, PA, they can team up with the McCain camp and start screaming "ACORN, VOTER FRAUD, ELEVENTY!!" And lawyer up and begin the 2000 Nightmare sequel.

But it won't be that close..

Why is McCain campaigning in Tennessee?

Georgia, PPP-D: McCain 50, Obama 48, Barr 2

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Georgia_1103532.pdf

@ thatcher
I understand and agree with what you posted but, seriously, go look at the PA chart and it's already clear that McCain is picking up undecideds at a faster clip. Obama's support (at over 50%) is steady (i.e. he's not picking up undecideds; or at least not faster than he's losing supporters) but McCain is gathering them.

Basically, everyone is saying, well, it hasn't happened in the past but here it is happening right under our noses (at least in PA). For the argument that it breaks roughly 50/50 or to the non-incumbent party to work, all the polls in PA over the past week would have to be wrong. You may be right that from this point to tomorrow the undecideds may break evenly, but over the past week, that argument holds no water.

BTW- I won't be disapponted, I'm voting for Obama.

Correction on GA

It's M 50, O 48

Marist poll
http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

Christian:
"Why is McCain campaigning in Tennessee?'

Good question.. it's not like Lamar Alexander needs the help. He's way ahead, no? I think it may be more for morale and appearances at this point. It would be like Obama making a midday stop in Massachusetts.

@angrytoxicologist:

McCain pretty much has lived in PA for the past 2-3 weeks. You are going to see it tighten there. But while he's been there - he's pretty much ignored the rest of the country - and that is the key.

To use terms McCain understands ...

He could win the battle (of Pennsylvania) at the cost of losing the war.

Or better yet - for those of you who study ancient history - Pennsylvania could be a Pyrrhic Victory for McCain:

A Pyrrhic victory (IPA: /ˈpɪrɪk/) is a victory with devastating cost to the victor.

Coal!!! They are attacking obama about coal one day before a national election where the country as war and economy is in the toilet.

McCain First
Worst.Campaign.Ever.

I agree that the undecideds breaking for McCain in PA is signficant, but it's a state that's shown many more undecided in polls in the last month than most other swing/battleground states. Obama remains at the 52-53 range in PA and has been for over a month - he's not losing voters. I don't know what took those undecided PA voters so long to decide that they were going to vote for McCain.

But I think PA is unique and not representative of undecideds in other parts of the country. I don't think it will be a 50-50 split nationally but probably more like 60-40 in McCain's favor, maybe even 70-30. But even if McCain wins 100% of all of the undecideds, in many national and key state polls, that won't make the difference.

Also to note, if you're making your mind up just 1-3 days before the election, I have to think you're a lot less likely to make it to the polls on Tuesday than somebody who made their mind up a month ago or even 2 weeks ago. Obama has locked in 50% or more of likely voters in many national and key state polls, going back two weeks or more. Those are supporters he's not going to lose, supporters who almost certainly will be voting on Tuesday or who have voted already.

History is a poor guide on an issue such as undecided voters. One needs to analyse the specific data for a particular election. In this case I believe most remaining undecideds detected by the polls will break for McCain (2:1) -- if they all vote.

This qualification seems to me now more important given that the story on the nightly news will be an Obama victory predicted (rather than "tightening"), since this soft penumbra of McCain support may simply stay home, discouraged.

So everybody may be right :-)

To summarize what I posted elsewhere, Pennsylvania has not been following the same track as the rest of the nation in recent polling, so I wouldn't assume the behavior of undecideds in recent Pennsylvania polls is representative of the behavior of undecideds throughout the nation.

And again, this wouldn't be surprising: Pennsylvania is different from the nation in certain ways demographically, and moreover there is little early voting in Pennsylvania, and finally McCain in particular is campaigning there much more than in many places. So, PA really isn't a good candidate to be a proxy for the entire nation.

The undecideds are interesting in this case because it's unpopular to be thought a McCain supporter, so many who are won't admit it. It's not necessarily a race question for them, though, or a Bradley effect, since it doesn't involve Obama turncoats.

Turnout among undecideds would presumably be lower, since it's also unpopular to admit one doesn't intend to vote.

I'd guess 70/30 undecideds for McCain, but early voting, GOTV (especially the AA turnout), cell phone factor, and bandwagon effect should mitigate it somewhat. And as has been said often, if Obama stays over 50%, the rest is gravy.

The post about 5% of R's planning to take time off to vote tomorrow vs 35% of D's is encouraging.

53/46 with 368 EV's. Obama Tsunami!

I hate to harp on the Irony of "Pyrrhiny" (my litle pun for today)

Again - another comparison to Clinton. Clinton's last stand was pretty much PA in the primaries. She was broke going in and was even deeper in debt coming out of that win. And it changed ... NOTHING.

So, McCain again fails to learn from history and uses his "surge" mentality (like the 1 in Iraq) and all will go much better in PA than it would have had he not done so. But it's not going to change the final outcome, that Barack Obama will be elected the 44th President of the United States of America.

After the latest polls, does anybody have a prediction for tomorrow? I'll go with this:

371 EV's

Upset: GA

Haha the Republican Natioanl PAC just did a Rev. Wright TV ad on CNN.

That airport in TN is apparently the nearest major airport to SW Virginia.

Thatcher.. what other option did he have? He could have spent all his time and money trying to hold on to CO, NV, and NM, but all those combined can only yield 19, and worse yet, trying straddle all those miles would also draw time and money away from OH and IN, which McCain has NO chance without holding on to. (as it is, he may lose both regardless). The Pa strategy was really is best, his ONLY shot.. as unlikely as it is.

ModerateGuy, I saw it last night on Sunday Night Football. Desperation at its finest.

Off topic:

Does anyone know the attendance at today's Obama and McCain and Palen and Biden rallies?

That makes sense.....after all, SW Virginia is the real Virginia ;)

@ Thatcher and @ DTM

Mayber we really don't disagree about anything. I agree that the national numbers show what has been predicted (even splits for the undecideds over the past 2 weeks). I simply hate when people take that national approach to predict state behavior (especially ones like PA which is so different as DTM mentioned).

In case anyone is curious, here's an excellent article on PA voters
http://www.slate.com/id/2203242/

Not that any of this matters, really. It's not much of a contest anymore.

"Republican Natioanl PAC just did a Rev. Wright TV ad on CNN"

I've seen that poor ad. It was short, jumbled, and confusing. Only hardcore republican Obama-haters are going to know what that ad was even talking about.

@Trosen:

Thatcher.. what other option did he have?

The Dole Option. Return to the McCain of 2000 and campaign positively in states and districts where that would have at least given hope to the Republican incumbents on the verge of losing their seats.

He wouldn't have won - but really - after the first debate - then the second - and finally the third - it was obvious the direction the election was headed. I know it's easier to say than to do - but that's the decision you have to make, especially when your campaign's slogan is "County First".

what the hell mccain is doing in Tennesse? please tell meeeeeeeeeee

There are some really interesting stats in that Marist poll. Although the overall has gone up for Obama, the favorability and enthusiasm #s have actually gone down. What that tells me is that, at least in this poll, you have a lot of previously undecideds holding their noses and breaking for Obama. Very very interesting.

The number I see is 393. I know it sounds crazy, but I think early voting will seal NC, Obama picks up FL, OH, PA, VA, CO, NV, IN, MO, ND, and yes, GA. Huge AA turnout/early voting could deliver GA. Is that based on any data or analysis? Hell no! I'm just feeling it. 378 without GA would also be very nice. Now people need to support Obama strong tomorrow and make me look good. Get out and vote tomorrow! Take some friends!

@masselo,

What? Is McCain in TN? What is going on?

PPP GA

If obama can get 28% of the white vote in GA he'll win the state.

Thatcher.. true. But he was in it to win it. (and we know the "Country First" stuff was crap i.e. Failin' Palin )And in his defense, the #s for Dole were a lot more grim for a lot longer than in this race. It looked for a while at least that McCain may have had a snowman's cance in hell, whereas in '96 it was clear Dole never really had any.

Murdoch's NY POST electoral map... hilarious

"McCain picking up Michigan" LOL

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11022008/photos/news004a.jpg

Also - this is a good read:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1103/p09s02-coop.html

(yes, I'm linking to the Christian Science Monitor - I know, I know ... but trust me)

Thatcher, did the C.S. Monitor also propose the best way to improve the health care system was to abolish it, as prayer is really the only way to cure any illnesses?

I kid.. I read the article.. it's just hard to stomach anything from those loonies.

@carl 29,

apparently they hope to get some local coverage in VA. Does beg the question though...why not just go to VA??????

@jonny87,

So, McCain goes to TN to get media coverage in VA? OMG!!!! These people are crazier than I thought :-)

@hou04

That's funny, if only as unintentional comedy.

Colorado red? No, FAIL

If Obama wins SC? No, FAIL

If Obama/McCain split NC and OH, it will "still be a horse race"? No, FAIL

What do you think of the WV early voting numbers?

West Virginia 21,6 % of 2004 total votes

Dem
53.0%
Rep
29.1%
No/Oth
9.1%

Kjartan WV dems mean nothing. They are Dixi-crats who never changed their registration. Don't read into it.

Kjartan WV dems mean nothing. They are Dixi-crats who never changed their registration. Don't read into it.

Kjartan, not much. WV is filled with a bunch of old Dixiecrats or long-lapsed Dukakis democrats who have gone hard right in the past 20 years.

I urge you to take a few hours off tomorrow and VOTE. My employer gives us a day off on Election Day and I will be volunteering. I have been there, done that on Election Day thinking a victory was imminent. All indicators show us with a victory in reach but it will only be in the bag if all of US go VOTE TOMORROW!
Please VOTE.

Kjartan, not much. WV is filled with a bunch of old Dixiecrats or long-lapsed Dukakis democrats who have gone hard right in the past 20 years.

@carl 29

tell me about it.

Kjartan WV dems mean nothing. They are Dixi-crats who never changed their registration. Don't read into it.

So over the past 6 days Gallop has gone from +2 Obama to +11 Obama and over exactly the same period of time Hotline has gone from +8 Obama to +5 Obama.

My forecast is Obama will win nationally by between 16% and 1% or just possibly McCain will win. Barack Obama or John McCain will be the next President. This is an independent view based solely on current polls plus an margin of error. Without these polls as a guide I would have no idea as to what might happen.

@carl 29

tell me about it.

@carl 29

tell me about it.

Andrew Sullivan posts his endorsement of Obama, concluding:

...there is something about his rise that is also supremely American, a reminder of why so many of us love this country so passionately and are filled with such grief at what has been done to it and in its name. I endorse Barack Obama because I will not give up on America, because I believe in America, and in her constitution and decency and character and strength.

And the world needs that America now as much as it ever has. Can we start that healing, that rebirth, tomorrow?

Yes. We. Can.

So I was in Colorado for a few days working... Yikes. I'm not convinced anymore that Colorado will go for Obama. I was in three parts of the state and drove across most of it and it's pretty heavily McCain signs and billboards, etc.

Anyone else nervous for tomorrow? What will we all do if everything is wrong and McCain wins?!

Andrew Sullivan posts his endorsement of Obama, concluding:

...there is something about his rise that is also supremely American, a reminder of why so many of us love this country so passionately and are filled with such grief at what has been done to it and in its name. I endorse Barack Obama because I will not give up on America, because I believe in America, and in her constitution and decency and character and strength.

And the world needs that America now as much as it ever has. Can we start that healing, that rebirth, tomorrow?

Yes. We. Can.

Hell I'm in Portland, already voted, and I'm taking the day off to go down to Obama HQ and do anything I can.

...computer messing up

@johncoz

Wasn't Andrew Sullivan the ratbag who keep trying to claim that Palin's son was really her grandson? That guy has a lot to learn about decency whatever candidate you support.

fox due at 1pm eastern???

prediction: 51 O, 46 M

who the hell is Andrew Sullivan ?

the FOX NEWS poll will be out at 1 pm, cant wait to see it

Working class do billboards vote? I read an article months ago that the Obama campaign made a deliberate move not to spend alot of money on signs. You can purchase one at barackobama.com

Working Class, I live in Portland, OR. Outside of Portland in Vancouver, WA I see more McCain signs than Obama. Will McCain win WA state?:)

FOX News poll --
prediction : M 55 - O 45

http://www.alligator.org/articles/2008/11/03/news/campus/081102_biden.txt
[At a Biden event in Florida]
“I wanted to see the next vice president of the United States,” said Josh Simmons, Gators for McCain chairman.

Simmons said he voted for Obama about two weeks ago.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-31/obama-is-the-true-conservative/
Jeffrey Hart, a speechwriter for Reagan and Nixon—who worked at the National Review for four decades—on why he's voting for Obama.

@Observer,

This is getting way, way off-topic here, but Andrew Sullivan never made that claim. He has been pressing for release of her medical records, including those surrounding the birth of her new son.

@observer

Sullivan wasn't (and isn't) claiming any such thing. He is calling for Palin to release her full medical records (and hold a proper press conference) so that all questions can be properly answered.

He is also probably America's pre-eminent political blogger.

Right, the Palin child/grandchild claim was made by someone over at Daily Kos, two or three days before it was announced that Bristol Palin is pregnant.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

fox predictions??????

is that confirmed for fox?

Fox Prediction
Obama +7

They want to be more with the rest of the polls, and prevent the fiasco they had last time

Fox Poll (LV):

Obama 50 (+3)
McCain 43 (-1)

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110308_poll.pdf

masselo:
FOX News poll --
prediction : M 55 - O 45

lol

it will be O +7

O 52
M 45

I predict O + 4

PPP - Georgia

McCain - 50%
Obama - 48%
Barr - 2%

@ Working Class
I have the same kind of feeling when I drive around PA nad look at all the McCain/Palin signs in the country. Then I am reminded how about 70% of the population lives in urban areas and how sometime a few city or suburban blocks have more population than some small counties.
Yes we can!

FOX

Obama 50/43

I wonnder how they are gonna spin this poll.

Hey I was right

OMG. So O+4 on Fox poll over 3 days? What a joke! They lowered their weighting to try and add to the comeback narative now came back to earth! ROFL Fox!:)

Yup.. it's offical. Final Fox poll +7 Obama. Color me a little surprised. The only wiggle room there is you have 2% "don't know" and 5% "undecided."

brand new Fox polls 50-43 guess who is behind?

@johncoz

He's still pushing it. Please see:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/still-no-palin.html

As far as I am concerned he's a total and disgusting fruitbat.

I see Fox went back to a 42D 36R breakdown in voter party ID. More reasonable and it is reflected in the top line.

they are talking about it now, trying to put a happy face on it but its clear they are sad

Gallup:

Registered Voters
Obama 53 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama 53 (+1)
McCain 42(-1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama 53 (+2)
McCain 41 (-1)

So much for late deciders going 100% to McCain....

masselo:"who the hell is Andrew Sullivan ? "

Sullivan is a British born journalist; Conservative..He started to dislike Bush after the Iraq war and is a strong Obama supporter..one of the earliest conservatives to support him.

Well Opinion Dynamics had to come back to earth to not lose all credibility tomorrow. Wow with the BG poll up today will be fun to watch TIPP. :)

TIPP's going to look very lonely if he shows Obama at anything less than 50%

Sorry, LV (Traditional)
Obama 53 (+2)
McCain 42 (-1)

ok now I myself would wish state polls would be more inline with all these national polls, albeit obama still winning either way

Hart's endorsement is a complete surprise to those of us who lived with his columns in the Manchester (NH) Union-Leader and the shenanigans at the Dartmouth Review. Here's his bio: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Hart

Just more evidence of the coming tong war in the GOP. Thinking about that, I feel like the Red Sox fan when asked about a subway series between the Skanks and the Mets: "I feel great - a New York team is sure to lose!"

(Sorry, Yankee fans - couldn't resist it.)

colorado isn't in play...mccain going there on his way to arizona....they pulled out there two weeks

Guys

Tomorrow morning everybody's LV will be at 8%+ in the Nationals as Obama is running away on the actual voting and turn out in some of the battleground states looks to be huge.

That's the lead for tomorrow's news cycle.

NeutralNick

Yea, I agree. I don't understand why the state polls seem closer, yet the national polls are a laugher. Can't really explain it away as the Blue states are REALLY blue. Because the Red states are also REALLY red.

Typical GOP dirty tricks:

http://news.aol.com/elections/article/some-voters-hit-with-dirty-tricks/235328?icid=100214839x1212722267x1200811134

I cant wait to see Hannity spin this New Fox poll tonight --- but not as much i cant wait to see his racist behind when Obama gets elected tomorrow --- wowwwwwwwww -- that will be a great feeling

According to fox

mccain wins white women by 12 but white men by only 5. yeah right.

With those numbers from Ras, Fox, GWU...you can say it's pretty much over. DKos might end up the closest national poll as last two days have been O+4.

@DecaturMark:
"I see Fox went back to a 42D 36R breakdown in voter party ID."

They don't weight by party ID. Their last poll was within their MOE, but at the boundaries -- that's the nature of sampling.

Their current result implies an Obama outcome of 51-52% on ED, ie smack in the middle of the pack.

Why is Mccain campaigning in Tennessee? Do they know something that we don't know--I know Tennessee has the highest rate of AA population in America but due to extreme high turn of conservative white voters, black voters never have an impact in general election. Has that rave change a bit?

foxnews poll
O 50 M 43

One interesting stat from the fox poll is they claim that Obama and McCain are now even among early voters, yet most polls have shown a wide gap favoring Obama. Thoughts?

EXIT POLLS

with so much early voting they are going to be fairly meaningless tomorrow, maybe not in a few non voting early states.

Nate Silver is doing a write up on them later on to day. His take is always going to be interesting maybe FOX can fix the election again?

What do you mean maybe FOX can fix the election again?

masselo.. I expect Fox to very soon turn from "McCain can win" mode to "Destory and undermine Obama presidency" mode starting by about 9 pm tomorrow.

For what it is worth, I agree with johncoz: Opinion Dynamics just seemed to randomly get a relatively favorable sample for McCain last time, and this time the sample is closer to the norm. These things happen.

@working class

blue states are for sure much bluer and red states are definelty nowhere near as red as nomal eg.california kerry +9, obama +20/texas bush +23, mccain+15.

add to this all the red states where obama is doing much better IN, NC, VA....

however, i think that many state polls may be conservative on turnout, whereas the national polls are clearly anticipating high turnout

Now I sympathize with the McCain-supporters/Obama-haters who are grasping at straws, but this idea they are pushing that McCain will get a majority of undecideds is a little silly.

First, it is a moot point with Obama at 51-52%.

More importantly though there is absolutely no reason to think that remaining undecideds will break for McCain. To begin with, if there is any general trend affecting undecideds it is the momentum of who is ahead. A majority of undecideds will go for whomever is expected to win because people want to back the winner. Past elections bear that out.

Now, let's look at what specific forces may be at work in this election. I think it is safe to assume that most undecideds are independents; some are party faithful finding it hard to support their party's candidate but those would be a minority and would cancel each other out. Where are independents breaking in general? Very clearly toward Obama: for example, taking two polls at random: Gallup says "independents preferred Obama to McCain by 48% to 43%;" Survey USA has them going for Obama 48% to 40%; other polls show similar. That tells you something about where undecided will break. Add to this the difference in GOTV efforts of the two parties. Granted, the GOTV effort is mostly directed at identified leaners or supporters, but if there is a significantly stronger effort from one side the coattails of the efforts will sweep some undecideds along with it. According to Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/one_third_of_obama_voters_plan_to_be_out_tomorrow) 35% of Obama supporters are taking election day off while only 6% of McCain supporters are. We can't assume every one of these people are working on GOTV, but if six times more Obama people than McCain are out there getting out the vote it can't help but bring along some undecided too.

I think it a very reasonable assumption that undecideds will go for Obama by a 55-45 or even 60-40 margin. That says to me that Obama will win the popular vote by 8 or 9 points nationally, with 360-370 EV.

jonny87

Thanks!

There is also a pretty good theory going around that this last wave of really over the top negative ads have further eroded whatever headway McCain was making with independents.

Kos/R2K produced their poll for boomshak. That's one conclusion that can be drawn.

More likely, I think PPP and R2K have sensitized their models for the Campaign at the edges a little bit here a little bit there. The campaign needs to make sure that it GOTV.

I'm cynical as my polling feel, as a strategist rather than pollster, has this at a wider margin number.

jonny,

The irony is that it would be better is the blue states were paler, and the red states redder. Then Obama's commanding national lead would be much more strongly reflected in the states that count.

note: don't take this observation too seriously, since of course it puts causation back to front :-)

OK, SURVEY USA definitely wins the award for the most bizzare state polling in the final week! Get this they have Obama only up by 3 in MN, but they have a tie in MO? In their last PA poll they claimed that McCain was on Obama's heels even though it was Obama +7, in addition they only have McCain up 8 in South Carolina (yeah right if McCain only wins by 8 in SC I'll sell you a bridge for free) and they have Obama up 2 in Ohio (Ohio is the only one of this bunch that comes close to making any sense). What is up with this???

...and because democrats dont compete in the typical red states there is a lot more upside compared to states like fl and oh where they always compete. thus this is how it is possible to be doing about 20 points better than kerry in indiana but perhaps only 5 points or so better in OH, FL

@johncoz

if only we could disperse a million californians in FL and OH

@jonny87:

Important point to note about the divergence between national and state polls.
I do not know of any state poll where they are using cellphone samples whereas all the national polls showing a lead of 7 and above use this sampling.

Also in TX I do not think McCain will win by double digits..if you ask our friend "straighttalk" he will say TX is going blue :-)

@sunnymi

yeah i forgot about cellphones. theres perhaps another couple of points.

are republicans really going to turnout tomorrow????