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US: Obama 50, McCain 45 (Rasmussen 9/26-28)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
09/26-28,08; 3,000 LV, 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 50, McCain 45

 

Comments
Viperlord:

Wait for it, Rasmussen has been taken over by the evil liberals.

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Adrian B:

Ramussen, the most generous pollster to McCain, has now had Obama up by +5, +6 and +5 for the last three days.

Once we factor in all the other trackers we find the same story - Obama up +6 (and taken together there is little margin of error).

I expect to see VA, NC, NV and Florida begin to shift to Obama this week.

I'm sure there are those who will say "the fundamentals of McCain's campaign are still strong" but he's running out of time.

And the Palin/Biden debate will make very little difference (whichever way it goes).

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thoughtful:

Well its the Statespolls later today that are of bigger interest Only surprise here is Obama not 51!

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Stuart:

R2K has O 51 M 42, +9.

Favs are most interesting

MCCAIN 45 45 10
OBAMA 59 30 11
BIDEN 52 33 15
PALIN 40 49 11

This indicates that O/B can afford to go heavy negative(+29/+19F), while McCain/P has lost creds to do so (0/-9).

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boomshak:

BAD NEWS FOR OBAMA:
Well, it's clear that after polling Obama +6 for two days and now +5, Obama most likley polled around +4 on Sunday.

To get to +6 initially, he likely had a day at +8 in there. This means that Obama is -4 off his highs as the worry of the financial crisis ebbs, so does his lead.

The next big event is the VP Debates:
The biggest area of hurt on McCain's numbers thus far has been his lead amongst white women. If Palin kicks some butt Thursday (rumor is she is gonna come out swingin pitbull style), look for McCain to get some support back in the white women demo.

CONCLUSION:
All signs point to a statistical tie again by Sunday.

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boomshak:

@thoughtful:

"Well its the Statespolls later today that are of bigger interest Only surprise here is Obama not 51!"

Let the record show that thoughtful was 100% wrong on his Rasmussen Prediction for today.

Fail.

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Ulysses:

This recent up-tick for Obama should be a pretty terrifying one for the McCain campaign. The tether between margin of error and margin of defeat is beginning to become palpable, and if they do not do something radical this week, it could well be over by October 15. Though it seems McCain's team is building an unusual week, and may be putting all bets on a new Palin strategy (which will no doubt be introduced in the deb date -- most likely (I predict) a 150% focus on attacking Obama and ignoring Biden, plus a new spate of particularly nuclear ads. However, the scorched earth strategy is going to be painful for them as well, as it will undoubtedly drive their negatives down severely.

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thoughtful:

Boomshak

Ever the optimist, I put a picture up of you and mccain in my local bar here and you're right!

Hotline should confirm later today.

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zotz:

thoughtful
"I put a picture up of you and mccain in my local bar here and you're right!"

Let me guess... on the dartboard?

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Justin:

"BAD NEWS FOR OBAMA:
Well, it's clear that after polling Obama +6 for two days and now +5, Obama most likley polled around +4 on Sunday.

To get to +6 initially, he likely had a day at +8 in there. This means that Obama is -4 off his highs as the worry of the financial crisis ebbs, so does his lead.

The next big event is the VP Debates:
The biggest area of hurt on McCain's numbers thus far has been his lead amongst white women. If Palin kicks some butt Thursday (rumor is she is gonna come out swingin pitbull style), look for McCain to get some support back in the white women demo.

CONCLUSION:
All signs point to a statistical tie again by Sunday."


I don't know whether to think this is cute or sad. Boomshak, you're far past the point of grasping at straws now. You know, it's not too late to leave the dark side and come on over to the good guys. You can still be on the winning team. Your party's representatives and your candidate are awful. They've done all they can over the past eight years to destroy this great nation. We cannot let it happen again. We can not elect another Republican to the white house. You can do better. All McCain's supporters can do better. You may have been born a Republican, but you're not stuck as one. You can change any time you want. You can put party aside and do what's right. You can put country first and vote for Barack Obama.

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DaveAustralia:

@boomshak
"The biggest area of hurt on McCain's numbers thus far has been his lead amongst white women. If Palin kicks some butt Thursday (rumor is she is gonna come out swingin pitbull style), look for McCain to get some support back in the white women demo."

Yes swinging like a pitbull....
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=Ze1dQBluxiA

oh and incase you had forgotten
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=nokTjEdaUGg

I can just see Putin quaking in his boots....

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Adrian B:

Last week the McCainanites were saying it would be a statistical tie by today, following the debates.

It may be true that if the economy ceased to be the most important issue McCain's numbers would recover but the economy is simply going to get worse before now and election day.

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DaveAustralia:

And just when you thought it couldnt get worse

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

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BOOMFAIL:

I'll take a 5 point Rasmussen lead for Obama anyday (especially after weekend polling which always favors republicans.) Taking their small Democratic sampling of only about 5% more than Republicans into effect, you can easily add another 2 to 4 points to their numbers. True Obama lead of 7 to 9 points.

Can't wait to see the numbers a week from now after the VP debate if Palin isn't gone by then. Clearly the McSame stunt last week backfired on him, and now they are scrambling - trying to come up with another rabbit out of a hat. Won't work this time around. Look for more nasty McCain ads at a time when a candidate should be going positive a month before the election. The one playing in Wisconsin from McShame with the baby fading into the dark makes me sick, but I know worse is yet to come from them.

Unfortunately, we will have horrible GDP news right before the election that I predict will clearly show we have fallen into a recession, and the Obama lead that will solidify by then will be insurmountable. Look for VA, NC, IN, CO, IA, NV, FL, OH to all go blue this year for an electoral vote landslide.

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Mike Farrace:

I would interpret the favorability numbers to mean people appreciated Obama's restraint on the bailout. Today's numbers are definitely encouraging. I, for one, think the debates could play well for McCain and Palin. It's not a good matchup, as they say in boxing. Biden's got some easily-exploited scars and lots of votes to dissect for criticism, and Palin's record as mayor and governor might be hard to use forcefully. And the format suggests this debate should be succint. If she memorizes her lines and is prepared with a few memorable barbs, she could come out of this smelling like a rose. Biden needs to be at the top of his game on Thursday.

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BOOMFAIL:

@DaveAustralia

Is this what you are referring to?
"Howie Kurtz raised some eyebrows by reporting this morning that "the worst may be yet to come for Palin; sources say CBS has two more responses on tape that will likely prove embarrassing."

A source familiar with CBS News’ plans clarified that this is part of the "Vice Presidential Questions" series with Biden and Palin. The recorded segments are scheduled to air Wednesday and Thursday before the vice presidential debate. (The series is based on the Presidential Questions series, in which Couric asks the candidates the same set of questions on wide range of topics from policy to character to leadership.)

No word on the content."

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Inkan1969:

Does anyone know of historical examples of Presidential candidates who were riding high in the polls at the start of October but then fizzled out by November? I don't recall any recent example. I remember that Dukakis and Kerry got stuck in second place from August on. I think Clinton was generally in the lead for most of September and October in 1992, and Dole and Mondale never had a chance ever.

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DaveAustralia:

@boomfail

Yeah that was it I had forgotten it gets updated

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KipTin:

Rasmussen has always been a reliable tracking poll with an established methodology... including how the political ID weighting is determined. Assigning a "McCain" bias to Rasmussen is not based on facts.

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DaveAustralia:

Also by the way GDP comes out on the 30th of October and its a dead certainty to be negative. So its not looking like the economy issue is going anywhere good for McCain, anytime soon.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

"All signs point to a statistical tie again by Sunday."

roflmao! ANOTHER prediction? After you have been MORE WRONG than anyone else on this site?
A 1 point shift points to a statistical tie by sunday?

Ok, I'll make a prediction. There will be no tie this Sunday, Boomshak will be wrong YET AGAIN.

lmao! pathetic. fail yet again Boom.

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Ryan in MO:

obama up by 7 in PA

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kerrchdavis:

@ryan

do you have a link to the poll?

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marctx:

I said and thought it would be a tie by the end of this week before I knew the media would carry Obama's water by promoting a North Korean style propaganda machine of "false" news.

If a bill passes it will be because McCain supports it and is making the calls. That is the truth, but the media won't tell the truth.

Its like we're living in Russia and it may be near impossible to beat the media when they are driving the public perception with lies.

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DaveAustralia:

@marctx

Obama has said he supports the bill but with certain ammendments like no 'golden parachutes' for CEO's. That doesnt sound like a ridiculous requirement.

And if your so concerned about the liberal bias you only need to turn over to FOX, and im sure you will be pleased.

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faithhopelove:

Here's the link to the PA poll with Obama up 7:
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_9_29.pdf

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Connor:

@marctx

Where is this "truth"? In your mind, marctx? Did he call Phil Gramm? Wow, awesome! He can call the guy who helped get us into this mess! HE'LL know what to do!

Once again, marctx's candidates: Clinton...Gore...Kerry...Hillary...McCain. What happened, guys? Anyone have a guess? Hmmm.....what a chin-scratcher! I'm sure marctx turned for ideological/policy reasons! I mean..WHAT ELSE COULD IT BE?!

Ezra Klein made a good point today about McCain's total lack of respectable economic advisors: "When Barack Obama wants to convey strength and experience on the economy, he call Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, Warren Buffett, Paul Volcker, Laura Tyson, Joe Stiglitz, and Gene Sperling. McCain calls...Meg Whitman? Phil Gramm? Carly Fiorina? Kevin Hasset? Mitt Romney? An online auctioneer, a sour deregulator, a failed CEO, a guy who wrote a book saying that Dow would hit 36,000 right before the market crashed, and an early-model android?"

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boomshak:

You know, the OVER-OPTIMISM by the Obama faithful never ceases to amaze and to amuse:

Here we have a year in which the economy is teetering on the brink of destruction with a Republican President unpopular with his base as well as the Dimocritters.

We have a young, good looking black candidate against an old, cranky white guy with a bad arm and yellow teeth.

We have a MSM the runs one hit piece after another on the Republican Candidate while refusing to investigate even the most glaring of improprieties by the Dimwitocrat.

We have ALL that, and the most the GREAT MESSIAH can achieve a month out is a 5 point lead (2 points above the MOE)?

And your FOOLS are EXCITED by that!?

My God, Obama should be ahead by 20 points right now. Be afraid Obozonuts, be very very afraid.

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BOOMFAIL:

Internals of the PA poll faithhopelove linked to above:
Q9. Are you leaning more toward voting for Barack Obama or John McCain
AMONG UNDECIDED VOTERS N= 60
OBAMA......................50%
MCCAIN.....................35%
NEITHER/OTHER........5%
NOT SURE..................10%

Seems to contradict the theory that the "undecideds" are suddenly going to flock to McCain on election day, when Obama leads by 25% when they are pushed. This may be a PA poll, but I would bet similar results can be found nationwide.

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Connor:

@boomshat

Once again: when/if Obama wins, will your argument shift to "yeah, but why didn't he win...BY ENOUGH?!"

You're a pretty sad guy, boomshat.

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Dana Adini:

In Trade just flipped florida from Red to Blue giving Obama 338 EV to McCain's 200. Besides the obvious, anybody know why people are buying Obama Florida futures. Did I miss a recent poll?

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thoughtful:

Zotz

+7% average today in the trackers.

Sweet Broomshak!

I haven't got my head around the battleground is that age weighted and repub waited?

+50.4 I understand to 44.7 Boomshak with your farorite pollster.

Gallup isn't going to look pretty, maybe Hotline might please you.

+6 for Ras for the weekend. Should be a much bluer map too!

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BOOMFAIL:

@Dana Adini
Perhaps Rasmussen results leaked early??

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boomshak:

Man, oil is getting CRUSHED today!

Let's see how Obama does in a month when ga is $3 a gallon and the Dow is up 1500 points from here (P.S., The Dow is down today because of 2 thinsg 1) Europe, 2) The House hasn't passed this turkey yet).

Once the bailout plan passes, look for big fat rally and oil falling even further as speculators rotate out of commodities and into oil and the dollar strengthens because our banking problems aren't as bad as Europe's.

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Connor:

@boomshat

You're not a very "pretty" person, are you.

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JCK:

Boomshak FINALLY admits that Obama has a lead. Progress is being made slowly. Now the line is "the lead isn't big enough."


Can you also explain where your MOE calculations are coming from? If four pollsters average to Obama at +5%, how are you generating your +/-3 MOE?

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KipTin:

That PA poll has Democrats 52%, Republicans 38%, and Independents/Other 10%. Hardly a typical sample for PA. Also note: Small sample 581 with MOE 4.5.

This is a local PA daily tracking poll and voter ID is random based on calling PA registered voters. Acceptable methodology, but one needs to look at a large number of these small samples, rather than a single.

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Dana Adini:

@Boomfail

could be it was red this morning

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boomshak:

@thoughtful:

I have explained this 3 times already.

Gallup always overshoots because as a candidate gets momentum, he always overweights in their favor which makes the momentum even greater than it should be.

That's why Rasmussen has tracked in a 9 point range and Gallup has tracked in a 15 point range.

What I DON'T get is why Gallup refuses to release his party weightings in each poll. WHY is he hiding this unless he doesn't want us to know he is playing games with the weightings?

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JCK:

PPP released a teaser on their FL poll.

See http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/florida.html

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boomshak:

Oopsie:

"Once the bailout plan passes, look for big fat rally and oil falling even further as speculators rotate out of commodities and into oil and the dollar strengthens because our banking problems aren't as bad as Europe's."

I meant to say "out of commodities and oil and into stocks", my bad...

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thomas/germany:

50/45 in the polls would lead to 51/45 or 52/45 on election day because many undecided voters who makes their decision on election day and not before will vote for the candidate who they believe will win because they want to be on the winning side.

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KipTin:

And the sample for leaning undecided voters is based on only 60 participants. Hardly a statement.

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DaveAustralia:

@boomshak

It wont matter GDP out on 30th October brings the economy right back into perspective 5 days before election. If that isnt the final nail in his coffin (no pun intended) then I dont know what is.

This is also assuming all your other stuff is correct about DOW etc.

Oh and by the way from someone who actually works in financial markets, since when has Europe led the U.S? its not 1924 boomshak. U.S leads and Europe follows.

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Dana Adini:

just out from Rasmussen. Looks like a sweep on issues

Surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters
September 27-28, 2008

Issue
Obama
McCain

War on Iraq
46%
45%

Immigration
43%
40%

Environmental Issues
54%
37%

Balance Fed. Budget
47%
43%

Negotiate Trade Agreements
47%
43%

Taxes
48%
45%

Social Security
49%
41%

Healthcare
54%
38%

Education
53%
36%

Abortion
47%
42%

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KipTin:

That last comment was targeted at the PA poll, not Rasmussen.

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JCK:

Sounds like PPP is also going to be showing a lead in NC.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/north-carolina-poll.html

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BOOMFAIL:

Opinions about the economy will not change suddenly even if the Dow went up 3000 points. Normal people are hurting regardless of what the stock market tells them. What matters most to them are how they are doing now compared to in the past. Think: "Are you better off today than you were 4 or 8 years ago?"

Plus a whopper GDP report to come out right before the election will certainly now show a strong 3rd quarter. People's perception about the economy will not change significantly before Nov. 4th, and in my opinion stands a greater chance of worsening rather than improving.

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boomshak:

@KipTin:

It is clear these Dimwitocruds have NO PROBLEM with insane overweighting of Democrats, but have Battleground undersample Dimbulbs by 2% and they are up in arms about the injustice of it all.

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kerrchdavis:

Gallup stays +8

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Connor:

@boomshat

"Overweighting of Democrats."

Dude, you live in North Carolina, right? Yeah...let me assure you...there are a lot more self-identified "Democrats" than self-identified "Republicans" in this country.

I think you might have to think outside your comfort zone, boomshat. You know, past all your neighbors with the dead cars in their front lawns.

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak I know you can't see it but you sound like a desperate man. Nothing in the polls supports YOUR optimism.

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boomshak:

"Normal people are hurting"

Only 2.5% of mortgages are in foreclosure. A massive portion of that are speculators who got caught with their pants down. Another large portion are people who should never have gotten a mortgage in the first place.

Most "normal people" think their own finances are fine, but just think everyone else's suck due to MSM brainwashing.

You want "normal people"? I went to grocery store yesterday - packed. I went to the movies Friday night - packed. I watched the football game at a sports bar - standing room only.

THAT'S normal people.

____________________

Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Barack Obama opening up a seven point lead over Sen. John McCain, 49% to 42%

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Connor:

@boomshat

"Most "normal people" think their own finances are fine, but just think everyone else's suck due to MSM brainwashing."

You're a ****ing idiot.

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DaveAustralia:

@boomfail

"Plus a whopper GDP report to come out right before the election will certainly now show a strong 3rd quarter. People's perception about the economy will not change significantly before Nov. 4th, and in my opinion stands a greater chance of worsening rather than improving."

is that a typo? The GDP report will be negative, thats not even a prediction, its a case of how negative.

And boomshak I hope to god your praying this bailout plan passes (as I am) because if it doesnt DOW could be down a 1000 by the end of the day, and I dont even want to think happens to McCain then.

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BOOMFAIL:

boomshak's favorite site on the debate night doesn't seem to be in his vocabulary anymore.

http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

Also above meant to say NOT show a strong 3rd quarter. My bad.


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boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:
"Gallup stays +8"

If that is true, that means since Gallup went from +5 to +8 in one day previous, Obama must have polled at about +4 or +5 to stay at +8. it also means that Obama likely polled +11 the day before.

So Obama loses 6 points on Gallup in one day! that is HUGE!

The SURGE is ova!

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Dana Adini:

JCK. I assume NC will flip blue in the intrade m,arket by today. Boomshack if you still think McCain will win you can make a whole lot of $$$$ in the futures market

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak NORMAL people are hurting. Wages are $1000 lower on average than when Clinton left office. Is the cost of living the same as 2000? You are so out of touch it's not even funny. I live in Portland and homes prices have almost DOUBLED in some areas from 10 years ago. Incomes are down. There has been ZERO progress in 10 years for the middle class.

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Ryan in MO:

anyone know why pollster.com has stopped posting so many polls in the last week or so?

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boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

You get it right? Obama went from +5 to +8 in one day to that means in a tracking poll, he must have had an EXCELLENT day.

If Obama had just polled +8 again, the average would have moved to +9 or better. Since it stayed +8, that means he likely polled only +5 or so Sunday.

So we have Rasmussen, Hotline and Gallup all likely polling Obama +4 or +5 Sunday, down 4-6 points from his highs.

END OF SURGE NOTED.

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nick-socal:

@boomshak, what I think you're missing is that between 2003-2007 nearly $7 trillion worth of mortgages were written. Albeit some of that was refinances (but even with the refis people took equity out of their homes in cash). Now, since the housing market is off it's 2003-2005 peaks, it's pretty safe to say that a majority of those $7 trillion in mortgages are worth less than what is owed on them. You cite the 2.5% of foreclosure number, but you don't get how it affects the banks and lenders. If they have all these loans out there that are worthless than what is owed on them it doesn't matter if their customer can pay the payment or not. They have a bunch of debt that has no collateral to back it up. So, they are losing their own credit and borrowing capabilities due to having all that non-collateralized debt on their books. That is going to translate into a massive credit crunch larger than this $700 billion bailout can stem.

Basically what it boils down to is you ain't seen nothing yet and you along with all the other people you claim are doing fine that you saw that movies simply don't understand this fact. Unfortunately you will probably sooner rather than later.

Credit, for better or worse, is what has made our world go round. A bank with too much non-collateralized debt on it's books can't get credit, therefore can't give credit.

Unless the housing market improves dramatically and quickly, thus making all that $7 trillion in mortgages collateralized, then we're in for a world of hurt.

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thoughtful:

@Dana Adini

That is the most important polling information of the last few days.

It shows that Obama won the debate, EMPHATICALLY and clearly has changed perceptions about him particularly on Iraq and by implication National Security.

Its going to take an awful lot for McCain to get within 3/4 points let alone back to even,

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak you are crazy LOL I'm still waiting on your response. Last week McCain would be back in the lead REMEMBER? You are such a desperate little man. It's quite funny. And sad at the same time. Maybe you need to get some?

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boomshak:

One thing about gallup that concerns me:

When he has Obama leading, he sounds down right EXCITED in his narrative describing the poll. When he has McCain leading, it seems almost as if he is apologizing for his numbers.

When Obama leads it is all like "Obama is doing fantastically and may do even better".

When McCain leads it is like, "well, we are likely just seeing a temporary surge here based upon current events but we expect these numbers to start falling shortly."

Also notice that he says "Obama had two strong nights of polling after the debates, but he does not say that the escond night was stronger than the first, hence it was not, it was weaker.

Race tied by Sunday.

____________________

Dana Adini:

I think alot of people were unsure of Obama and his experience, knowledge, toughness, etc. Whether he actually won or not, lots of these fears were put to bed when he held his own on the issues vs. a seasoned pro like McCain

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I love it Boomshack. Obama holding his 2 point lead is BAD. ROFL. Seriously man. Time to realize your party has self destructed and this thing is wrapping up.

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Connor:

@boomshat

Holy jeebus, you're an idiot. I mean...wow. Sometimes it just blows me away. Wait a minute...

It just occurred to me. boomshat: we are onto you. You're not real.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Some idiot last week said the race would be tied by now and that doesn't seem to be the case.

Lead widens next week.

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak why even make a prediction. Almost every single one of your predictions are WRONG. Race tied by Sunday ROFL. Wait... 2 weeks ago it was MCCAIN ahead by next week. That was last week. What happened you political expert.

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boomshak:

Something you have to keep in mind about these polls saying Obama won the debate:

Most people did not even watch the debate as viewership sucked. that means they relied upon the MEDIA'S INTERPRETATION of the debate. We all know that the MSM spun it as a HUGE Obama win with polls by CNN (that gave 14 point sampling advantage) to the Dimbulbs.

So whe n you see these polls saying Obama won the debate, you have to realize the sample has been poisoned by the MSM declaring Obama the winner.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

you really are a moron of phenomenal proportions.

Only an idiot would bet on a tie by Sunday. And don't spew your crap about gallups internals which none of us know anything about.

____________________

Connor:

@PortlandRocks

Dude, don't you get it? boomshat isn't real.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Hate to disappoint you Boom, Average tracker at the moment over 7+%.

Everyway you look at this: the best that McCain will get is 200 EVs at the very most using Rasmussen's polling evidence!

____________________

DaveAustralia:

John McCains appointment of Sarah Palin as VP is the worst decision, since Caligula made his horse a consul in the Roman senate.

This will be proven when she implodes in thursdays debate, thats my prediction.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

Hey boomer

I think we all would like to know what you're on and where we can find some? Trippy dood.

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kerrchdavis:

"So whe n you see these polls saying Obama won the debate, you have to realize the sample has been poisoned by the MSM declaring Obama the winner."

roflmao! Can you guys believe this joke?

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boomshak:

Geesh, you Obozo fans just don't get it do you?

Even with this nutty Gallup +8 poll, the RCP Average is only Obama +4.6. That is less than 2 points above the MOE.

So Obama loses one and McCain gains one and we are right back to a statistical tie.

You guys are WAY too excited with such a tenuous lead.

____________________

nick-socal:

Did you all see that article in the Telegraph that was saying McCain's next hail mary pass will be the Palin wedding? How sad. To force those kids to get married. McCain's campaign advisors' comments were just down right sad.

My question is how on earth does a shotgun wedding for two teenagers translate into more votes for McCain?

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boomshak:

@thoughtful:
@Boomshak

"Hate to disappoint you Boom, Average tracker at the moment over 7+%."

For God's sake thoughful, you CANNOT be seriously including th R2000 poll in this group. They are claiming only 26% republicans! Even a blind partisan like you can't tell me you believe that steaming pile?

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Connor:

You guys ever seen that episode of South Park where Mr. Slave recounts his time in high school, calling all the dudes over to dogpile on him, beating him up while he writhed in joy?

That's this "boomshat" character. It's an interesting character. Sad, depraved. Masochistic ("Hit me, kerrchdavis, one more time!"). But the partisanship...it's a little "stock," you know?

I wonder if "boomshat" is really Blumenthal?

Whomever he is, he certainly isn't real.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

I've never seen a person so shameless in my life. What a disgrace.

____________________

nick-socal:

@DaveAustralia, I'm one of the few people who think Palin won't do that bad in her debate. Whether it's a game changer or not, I dunno. But she's going to be sequestered in Sedona starting tonight and drilled, drilled, drilled, baby. She will hold her own I bet.

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sunnymi:

@boomshak, Which end of the surge are you talking about?

If Obama is at 50-42 on a 3-day rolling average on Gallup it tells me he polled the following for the last 3 nights (48-42; 49-44, 53-40)...Last night's poll matches his best night last week (Thursday's night).

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thoughtful:

Goodnews Boomshak Hotline has it + 5% Obama yea 300+ EVs

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boomshak:

Obama loses 1, McCain gains 1, we are statistically tied.

I guess you guys leave the game early when your team is ahead by a field goal at the start of the 4th quarter right?

____________________

Connor:

@boomshak

Come on, we know it's you, Mark! Take off that mask, you rascal!

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Ryan in MO:

@nick

they're calling it "Debate Camp." Sounds like they have a lot of work to do giving it that name.

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DaveAustralia:

@nick-socal

Well the only hope for her anymore is that she passes as even reasonably intelligent and the republicans will claim victory. I am extremely doubtful of it though, I actually think its criminal the way the Republicans have hidden her away.

____________________

nick-socal:

@Ryan in MO, "Debate Camp" LOL!

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Connor:

@Ryan in MO

Maybe she can make us some lanyards in the Craft Hut?

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kerrchdavis:

As a reference for all you new guys here..

Boomshaks guide to polls:

1) If it doesn't support the candidate I support: fail.
2) If I don't like the internals: fail
3) If the weighting is different from Rasmussen: fail
4) If the weighting is the same as Rasmussen but I dont like it: fail
5) If its conducted by the MSM: fail
6) If it ISN'T conducted by the MSM but also doesn't support McCain: fail
7) If it is conducted by anything OTHER than a righ twinger: fail
8) If it IS conducted by right wingers but I don't like it: fail
9) If it shows any kind of momentum for Obama: fail
10) If there are 10 polls that go against the 1 poll I like, all 10 are outliers and thus: fail
11) All polling does not matter anyway because America is mid/right and does not elect a lefty.

What a joke. Boomshak, you are pathetic. fail.

____________________

nick-socal:

@DaveAustralia, I agree. And I think they've been extremely successful in setting the expectations for her so incredibly low that no matter what she does she'll look like the winner. I'm not convinced that would be a game changer though. People already have solidified around a negative opinion of her.

Part of me is in such disbelief that someone could be that ignorant to the issues as Palin that she's really just a Trojan horse and is 'faking' her ignorance so that she hits it out of the ballpark in the debate. I know that isn't rational thinking on my part but how could someone honestly be as ignorant as her?

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

Yet another story from the Scaife-funded Media Research Council’s “Newsbusters” debunked by the legitimate media. Here’s the AP story.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OBAMA_BRACELET?SITE=CAANG&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Notice the following quotation from the mother of the fallen soldier.

“[Mrs.] Jopek criticized Internet reports suggesting Obama, D-Ill., exploited her son for political purposes.

"I don't understand how people can take that and turn it into some garbage on the Internet," she said

Anyone want to take a wild guess who posted the “garbage” on this website over the weekend?

____________________

sunnymi:

SurveyUSA FL poll: 48(M) - 47(O)
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bae88e59-f8e1-4ea1-9397-5c19f91abcc1


McCain cannot be too happy trailing among men, barely holding on to the hispanic vote (+1) despite a +2 Party ID advantage given to the Republicans by this poll.

Statistics from August show that the party ID in FL is 41-37 in favor of Dems. I wonder if things changed in September to become 42 -40 in favor of Republicans. SUSA normally uses up-to-date numbers for their party ID.

____________________

nick-socal:

@kerrchdavis, maybe the polls are all wrong. Maybe Obama is going to win a la Reagan against Dukakis. Maybe the polls are showing it closer than it is. I guess Boomshak and others haven't even considered that? I mean the argument is ALWAYS that McCain is doing better than the polls indicate. Why can't it be that Obama is doing better than the polls indicate?

____________________

nick-socal:

@Ryan, I believed you I just thought it was hysterical. Thanks for the link.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@nick

exactly! which is why Boomshaks stupid just-2-points-above-the-MOE-when-you-dont-consider-the-d2k-poll-or-any-other-poll-that-ruins-my-argument argument is the dumbest thing ever said in history.

____________________

DaveAustralia:

@nick socal

Yeah agreed, I actually thought her speech at the RNC was excellent and she really shook the raceup. But since then she has shown absolutely no intelligence. I honestly think that once they start to ask her questions properly which they will have to do eventually. Shes going to implode and i would be surprised if he doesnt have to replace her.

____________________

decided:

boomshak = marctx.

marctx answered with "I..." to something that was directed to boomshak.
just so you know

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@decided

I regarded them the same anyway. a troll is a troll is a troll to me.

____________________

DaveAustralia:

OMG Boomshak

it hasnt passed and its because of your republican buddies!!! What happened to McCain on the phones!!!

DOW IS DOWN 500 now

Boomshak im sorry but you are now an idiot.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:


Gallup Tracking 50 42 Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking 50 45 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 47 42 Obama +5
CBS News/NY Times 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 49 44 Obama +5
Research2000 51 42 Obama +9

Throw away the loony "GW" Bush Poll, and the real average today is 6.14 lead for Obama. 7 polls showing what any logical person already knows. Even with half of the above polls having Republican slant. The MOE spin, can also ADD 3-5% to that, so why it is used to talk the lead down by some is hard to comprehend.

Debunk all you want, but there are HUGE numbers of newly registered voters and those with cell phones only that are not included in most polling. The argument that they didn't turn out for Kerry doesn't apply, because we have an energetic candidate this time that really has motivated the whole electorate especially those under 40 years old. Kerry did not have the level of enthusiasm that Obama has by any measure. This is what I am sure the Obama internals have been showing even when the Sarah Palin beer goggles were on, and everybody on the right fell in love with her.

Keep living in fairytale land that McSame stands a chance. Not gonna happen. Wouldn't be prudent.

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

DaveAustralia:

SPX is down 75. we could well have a crash thanks to you and your cronies.

____________________

Dana Adini:

why are u guys giving him the time of day. He obviously doesn't believe whathe writes he just tries to get everyone riled up. I would just ignore him

____________________

Dana Adini:

he should try the BB at david wissing, they might actually believe his nonsense

____________________

nick-socal:

Am I hearing this right? The House just voted NO on the bailout?

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Dow down over 600!

____________________

DaveAustralia:

yup dead right

and the only good thing out of it is that its over for McCain now.

We now have the biggest decline in the spx since Black friday in 1987.

Turn on CNBC there going wild.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomfail

I've been of the 300+ opinion since before the conventions.

Palin helped solidify the Republican base but was always likely to break the "Do No Harm" rule. Sorry Stillow, Sorry Boskop!

The Socialy conservative base is turned off by McCain and the Fical conservatives and Free marketers like Boskop and Stillow have been abandoned.

There are a dwindling number of GOP supporters on site, principally because they have been betrayed by their candidate rather than the Polls.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

wow...is this really happening?

____________________

nick-socal:

Now they're voting again? What would change 21 Reps minds in 2 minutes? I know I'll be slammed for this but I think just let it fail. Let the chips fall where they may. Let Wall Street take care of their own eff ups

____________________

DaveAustralia:

Republicans just stabbed america in the back.

____________________

thoughtful:

Guys,

This is far more serious than 1987!

____________________

nick-socal:

@DaveAustralia, No, they are doing something weird. They are voting to suspend the rules and pass the bill anyway. That's passing. So I guess I don't understand the Congress rules as much as I thought I did.

So basically they can pass a bill that didn't pass?

____________________

nick-socal:

What are they doing? Did the bill pass or fail?

____________________

DaveAustralia:

nah its failed and now the democrats have the option of closing congress till after the election or something. For the record the republicans voted on a 2-1 basis against this, dont let boomshak lie. The republicans blocked this and thats all there is to it. There could well now be a run on the banks and we go into financial armageddon, thanks Republicans

____________________

nick-socal:

@DaveAustralia, Easy bro. Really? A run on banks?

____________________

nick-socal:

I have a hard time seeing how an unpopular bill killed by Republicans benefits Democrats

____________________

thoughtful:

"Obama Gets Post-Debate Boost in Voter Trust on All Issues

While the results for the first presidential debate Friday were mixed, voters in surveys this weekend gave a boost in trust to Barack Obama over John McCain on a cross-section of issues." Rasmussen Reports

Game almost over!

____________________

thoughtful:

Pelosi is getting the blame, for "parisanship". I'd like to get a transcript of what she said.

____________________

thirdparty:

@boomshak:

"If that is true, that means since Gallup went from +5 to +8 in one day previous, Obama must have polled at about +4 or +5 to stay at +8. it also means that Obama likely polled +11 the day before.

So Obama loses 6 points on Gallup in one day! that is HUGE!

The SURGE is ova!"

You absolute idiot. Both sunnymi and I conclusively proved that you were WRONG when you asserted that Obama got +11 on Saturday in Gallup. In fact, let me show you the post in which you agreed with sunnymi's calculations showing that he got +6 on Saturday:

"I concur. Both analyses on your part showing it just a 4-5 point race on Saturday."

/blogs/us_daily_tracking_92527.html#comment-60029

That's right: boomshak himself admits that Gallup did not give Obama +11 on Saturday.

CONCLUSION: BOOMSHAK AGREES THAT BOOMSHAK IS WRONG.

-------------

Furthermore, you'll still make false assumptions about both Rasmussen and Gallup. Just because a candidate goes down one point, it does NOT mean that the day they just recorded was particularly bad for Obama. You clearly don't understand tracking polls, as both sunnymi and I showed in the last Daily Tracking thread on this site.

For what it's worth, I've calculated Obama +6 for last night in Rasmussen. The reason he ticked downward was because a +7 dropped off.

____________________



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