10/12-14, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Obama 50, McCain 45
Posted on October 15, 2008 9:47 AM
Yesterday's daily weighted average for all 10 national polls (although you would never have known there were 10 from Pollster, where the wheels seemed to have dropped off yesterday afternoon) was:
Obama 50.1/ McCain 42.2/ +7.9
For the 5 daily trackers, the figures were:
Obama 50.4/ McCain 43.3/ +7.3
The seven-day graph of the daily trackers again shows no statistically significant change. But I have added a linear trendline for each candidate to more clearly identify any possible movement. More bad news for McCain, if the trend slopes are meaningful.
There was some consternation on both sides yesterday about the spread of poll results. This has been discussed in various places, but I would like to add an additional observation.
If one looks at the undecided/other percentage average for all polls over the past 10 days an interesting point arises. Averaging and taking a standard deviation for these daily numbers (all polls) since Monday last week, we get:
7%, SD +/- 0.76%
which looks abour right for this stage of the race. Now it turns out that all of the polls that put Obama's support below the range expected from the tracker average (ie less than 50%) have a higher than expected number of Undecided/Other voters (ie more than 7.8%). Yesterday, these were Zogby, Hotline, IBP/TIPP, and Ipsos. The weirdest poll, IBP, has the largest discrepancy -- 13% Undecided. Unsurprisingly, all these polls also have smaller spread values.
This is an issue of survey methodology, ie pushing Undecides with a follow-up question. This doesn't make these polls "wrong", but it does help to explain the difference.
On Rasmussen, what is significant is that Obama's support has not dropped below 50% for 20 straight days, despite their conservative LV screen.
Posted on October 15, 2008 9:48 AM
My prediction for tonight's debate: McCain won't do cr*p because he's a coward.
Posted on October 15, 2008 9:51 AM
Mavericky Rasmussen will be irrelevant after this election, as they will be the least accurate, my friends. Outlier. FAIL.
Posted on October 15, 2008 9:52 AM
Just noticed Palin is in New Hampshire today. I'm sure that one's in play for them!
Worst. Campaign. Ever.
Posted on October 15, 2008 9:56 AM
I don't know why you are dissing Rasmussen.
1) they are robocalls - so that negates anyone's (false) concept of the "Bradley Effect".
2) They don't dial cell phones, so add 2-3% on the spread for Obama
3) we know they are using VERY traditional demographics so we know we can add a couple of points there
All in all - I like Rasmussen because they give us a good take on what will happen IF 2008 turned out to be like previous elections. Even under those conditions Obama wins by 5 points.
I like it!
Posted on October 15, 2008 9:57 AM
Rasmussen wil catch up just before the election.
Glad to see that the MSM is getting the word out about Caribou Barbie and her ties...
Daily Kos link to CNN story.
Posted on October 15, 2008 9:58 AM
We don't evaluate polls on the basis of our partisan commitments, but on the basis of reason, experience and maths. The Ras results are perfectly consistent with a crushing victory by Obama, if taken in full context.
Avoid doing a mirror parody of boomshak, please.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:02 AM
The McCain campaign was very mad at Rick Sanchez yesterday, they refused to dend someone, instead they sent a strong letter of protest
Is there any sense of a Democratic jinks out there? If I recall correctly, weren't Carter, Gore and Kerry ahead in the polls at about this time in their respective races for the presidency? Will it happen again?
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:04 AM
Very interesting analysis of undecideds--thanks!
GW Battleground Poll
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:05 AM
Nate Silver has posted some early voting data suggesting that the conservative likely voter screen won't apply this year. Big edge for Obama in early voting, contrary to the +20 edge for Bush seen in early voting in previous elections.
Obama is +23 average among early voters in GA, NM, IA, NC. OH according to SUSA.
I think data like these would favor the Gallup expanded LV screen, for example. At the very least, Obama is banking votes at a time when he is well ahead in the polls. Even if McCain gets closer by Nov 4, he will be drawing from a smaller pool of voters and McCain would need a lead on election day just to catch up.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:08 AM
WHO'S SIDE IS OBAMA ON???
The campaigns are sparring over comments by Rev. Jesse Jackson arguing that Barack Obama’s foreign policy will mean an end to “decades of putting Israel’s interests first.”
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:09 AM
do any of you work? ;)
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:10 AM
Here are the poll results for Bush-Kerry leading into the November election. There were a few ties, a few polls showing Kerry with a 1-3 point lead (including one right before the election). But for the most part, it was Bush in the lead in single digits from this time last year to the election.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:11 AM
Well, the wild swing with Battleground continues, although the +8 for Obama looks alot more realisitc then yesterday, hopefully it stays put.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:15 AM
A better question would be whose side is Jesse Jackson on?
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:18 AM
I have a feeling that Jesse Sr. isn't really all that excited over a likely Obama win and isn't really trying to help him win. Jesse Jr. is an official campaign surrogate but Jesse Sr. has no connection to the campaign. Jesse Jr. even scolded his dad at least once and maybe even twice this election season. The only connection to the Obama campaign Jesse Sr. has is that he's black and he's a Democrat. For the wingnuts, that's about all they need to make claims the Jesse speaks for Obama because, well, all black Dems speak for Obama, right?
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:22 AM
Geesh, I have whiplash! Last 3 days on Battleground: O+8, O+13, O+8
I mean, geesh, who the hell is doing the polling over there? That's just crazy for a tracking poll.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:23 AM
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:27 AM
Battleground can't possibly expect people to care what they say anymore.
Also, I like using Rasmussen for a big picture look at this race, the numbers have been stable and reasonable. It's definitely a good baseline.
Florida O 48 M 44
NC O 48 M 46
Nevada O 49 M 46
WV M 49 O 47
Kerry was consistently trailing in the polls at this time in 2004. Obama has been consistently ahead in 2008.
In 2004, the Dems were basically hoping and praying that pollsters were missing a cohort of cell-phone-only voters and college kids, hoping that the pollster's turnout models would be wrong. They weren't, and Kerry lost.
Obama is polling much, much, better than Kerry did. You can review 2004 polling at realclearpolitics.com if you don't believe me.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:29 AM
Geesh...geesh is what you say.
I say you are behind in every single poll for practically the last month. I say your candidate shows complete chaos in his campaign, so much so that his own brother rights a letter and sends it to other republicans to have a different John for the remainder of the campaign? ?!?!? What kind of an completely disfunctional kind of Presidency do you think McLame would have? You really think he would be in charge?
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:30 AM
WHAT MCCAIN NEEDS TO DO TONIGHT:
If McCain is smart he will ask America this question:
"Americans, do you consider yourselves to be very liberal? If not, are you prepared to have every aspect of your lives controlled by possibly the most liberal government in US History? No checks and balances, no dissenting opinion, complete unfettered liberal power, hollywood liberals run amuck.
If this is what you want, vote for Barack Obama. But realize that when you vote for Obama, it isn't just a vote for Obama, it is a vote for absolute rule of liberals over your government and your lives."
McCain needs to leave America with that one simple mental image. Keep it simple. Forget Ayers, forget Wright, forget all that, THIS is the 800 lb gorilla in the room.
Weighting for Battleground yesterday 0.3; for Rasmussen 1.71, based on the daily sample size and past pollster record (using methodology from 538)
That said, there hasn't been a glimmer of good polling news for McCain in weeks. It just keeps slipping away from him, and I suspect Obama will need to perform a live sex act on stage for this trend to turn around.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:33 AM
In 1980, it was a close race until the first debate at which point Reagan opened up a huge lead. Sound familar?
The difference in 1980 was that the first (and only) debate between them wasn't until one week before the election.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:34 AM
I agree with what you're saying (and heard the same thing on NPR this morning), and think it's a far better tactic for McCain than simply screaming "AYERS" all day, every day.
The downside is that McCain continues to run his campaign as being "Nobama," rather than presenting a compelling to reason to vote FOR him. Until he can make that case, I think he's in trouble.
This is the reverse of 2004, where Kerry ran as "I'm not Bush."
Let's do a weekly update:
Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45 Obama +5
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Hotline Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground Obama 51 McCain 43
Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.2
A WEEK AGO:
Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Hotline Obama 45 McCain 44
Battleground Obama 49 McCain 45
Average: Obama 48 McCain 44.8
*A complete update after Gallup comes out :-)
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:37 AM
I can spell I think .....writes not rights ...hehehe
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:38 AM
change liberals to republicans and it might work
One simple emotional image - COMPLETE, UNCHECKED LIBERAL POWER.
McCain needs to stop making this election about Obama (his cult of personality is too strong), he needs to make it about the bigger picture.
If he goes after this, what is Obama going to say, "Oh, I'm not a liberal"?
I doubt the McCain Camp is smart enough to get this. They haven't yet.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:40 AM
That may fire up the Republican base, but a lot of the independents are tired of a Washington that bickers and fights and gets nothing significant done. They might like a one party rule for a while. They can make a change in 2 years if things are not going well.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:46 AM
I wonder how Jesse's other children view the race. Regarding Jesse Jr... when it comes to anti-semitism the acorn never falls far from the tree.
Even some conservatives think that being out in the wilderness for a couple of years might be good for them.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:48 AM
Today's WV numbers from Insider Advantage show that this is a toss-up state after all: the RCP average is now just a 1.5% lead for McCain. One at a time, seemingly safe red states are becoming first pink, then yellow for toss-ups, then pale blue. Already on this site West Virginia and North Dakota have been coloured yellow to join Missouri and North Carolina, while Montana and Georgia are in pink.
Week after week, national polls have thrown up single polls which have seemed like outliers, only to have later polls catch up. If this momentum continues and next week's numbers start to mirror the numbers from CBS/ NY Times poll, still more unlikely states will change their shading from bright red to more attractive shades.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:49 AM
I'll be good from now on Daddy.
Ras uses a 5 point advantage of Democrats. If you believe that 5% is the correct number, especially in this environment where more and more people are comfortable with calling themselves a Democrat, then that is your opinion. Ras also shows a 5 point lead for Obama in FLORIDA. If you believe that Florida is polling equally to the rest of the country, then there are some real deep problems here. Rasmussen does NOT poll cell phones. Rasmussen does NOT count newly registered voters (whose real numbers are in the millions, despite the image you hear of Fox news that they are all fraudulent.) Rasmussen does NOT count your response if you did not vote in the last election. It is common knowledge (at east to most) that Rasmussen is a right leaning pollster. He partners with FOX for God's sake! If you would like to wager his accuracy come election day, let me know.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:50 AM
A COUPLE QUESTIONS FOR MCCAIN:
1. The election is 3 weeks away. From what I understood, you and the RNC headed into the home stretch with about $200 million.
In the last month, you have spent only $10 million on advertising, 1/3 of what Obama has spent. The RNC has spent only $6 million. As far as I can tell living here in Raleigh, you are running ZERO ads here. Nothing. None. Nada. Zip. Friends of mine in Northern VA tell me the same thing - no McCain.
My question is this, WHAT THE FLYING F*CK ARE YOU WAITING FOR?????!!!!!!
2. You MUST win VA, NC, IN and FL. They are slipping away. You are campaigning in IA, NH, PA and WI, none of which you have ANY chance of winning.
Why the hell aren't you spending every single day in VA, NC, IN and FL?????!!!!!
This whole campaign by McCain makes no sense to me at all. Why would you spend campaign time and dollars on states where you are down 14?
Next thing we know, we'll hear that McCain will spend the next 3 weeks on his BIG CALIFORNIA PUSH. He'll dump all $180 million on expensive ad time in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
I mean, as long as you are going to campaign like you've lost your mind, why not really go for it?
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:51 AM
I want Joe Wurzelbacher to debate Obama again. Obama finally met his match... a hard working man who does not want his income redistributed into the welfare system.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:52 AM
Why don't you call McCain headquaters or something?
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:53 AM
After 4 years of unchecked liberal power, Democrats may never be elected for anything again.
"After 4 years of unchecked liberal power, Democrats may never be elected for anything again."
Pretty sure you are thinking of the Republicans who got us in this mess we are in.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:55 AM
The expectation effect
From Rasmussen on Saturday: "Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now expect Barack Obama to win the election in November and become the 44th President of the United States. Just 15% expect a McCain victory ..."
This is fatal for McCain. It affects ground game enthusiasm, turnout, and voter intention.
Screaming "liberal" is not a debate winner, except among the already committed. The bar has now been set very high for him in terms of a debate "victory". And he is not a Great Communicator. Don't get your hopes up :-)
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:58 AM
Triumvirate's post-election "stimulis" package keeps getting bigger... it's up to $300 Bil.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:04 AM
The RNC also had to spend money on A LOT of congressional races and senate races. Your favorite source, DailyKos, linked to an RNC memo indicating that they were basically giving up on McCain and any offense in the down-ticket races to concentrate on defense.
That $200m is probably going to spent to defend seats in the House, rather than McCain.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:08 AM
McCain has tried the anti-liberal tactic a couple times, but it is fundamentally a political trap for him--in the end all he ends up doing is associating himself more strongly with Bush, Rove, et al.
Generally, to have any hope of beating Obama, McCain needed to disassociate himself from recent Republican policies and political tactics. But he apparently calculated that his "base" wouldn't let him do that, and we are seeing the results as moderates and independents steadily move to Obama.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:09 AM
Sorry, didn't mean to sound patronising. Rasmussen is a reliable pollster, despite his GOP lean. And his figures are not "bad" for Obama, they are just on the conservative side of landslide :-)
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:14 AM
But its ok to redistribute it to the Banks? McCain wants $300 billion to buy bad mortgages at face value. A windfall for the banks with zero compensation for the taxpayer.
I think you're confused.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:19 AM
I am against McCain's plan.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:24 AM
Well, if you are against McCain's plan on the central issue of the campagin, then presumably you are against McCain?
Split personality disorder?
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:28 AM
I am anti-socialism. If you cannot afford a mortgage... rent.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:36 AM
Didn't quite answer the point I made ... did you?
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:58 AM
The extreme lassez-faire system you favor would lead to the destruction of the middle class. Bush-Reagan economics has already started us down that path. The people have gazed down into the abyss and don't like what they see. I guess you'll have to move to Bahrain along with your bud Cheney.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:05 PM
Interesting data reported by Rasmussen today on his daily tracking poll:
For McCain, the encouraging news comes from core supporters—those who are certain how they will vote and that they will not change their mind. Just 42% are certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. That two-point gap is much closer than the overall numbers. It’s also much closer than the 45% to 38% advantage among core supporters enjoyed by Obama heading into the second Presidential Debate last week.
Overall, 12% of voters remain persuadables who favor one candidate or the other but could change their mind. Those, plus the 3% who remain undecided, are the target audience for both candidates in tonight’s debate.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:31 PM
Excellent post. Thanks.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:33 PM
I just don't understand Rasmussen at all. How come they don't have any fluctuations whatsoever? It's just weird, really weird. I have no idea which poll to trust though good thing is that we don't have to trust any single poll but can look at the average trends. Still, Rasmussen is the weirdest pollster out there (Battleground just simply sucks).
Posted on October 15, 2008 2:48 PM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR