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US: Obama 50, McCain 45 (Rasmussen 10/15-17)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/15-17, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 50, McCain 45

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Steady yet again. Obama still at 50, and McShame can't break the 45 mark. Two more weeks, my friends.

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mandalorianarmy:

Steady as she goes.

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johncoz:

Yesterday's daily weighted average for 7 national polls was:

Obama 49.9/ McCain 43.9/ +6

For the 5 daily trackers, the figures were:

Obama 50.3/ McCain 44.2/ +6.1

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers the race is static, compared with yesterday, on this the first day that has registered the debate.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3024/2950066721_1906126574_b.jpg

The full debate impact, if any, won't be seen until Sunday. No conclusion suggests itself from this data beyond saying that every day things do not move in his favour is a bad day for McCain.

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boomshak:

DailyKos (with their idiot sample) down 6 points in a week.
Gallup down 5 points in a week.
GW/Battleground down 9 points in a week.
Hotline down 3 points in a single day.

Undecideds are clearly moving to McCain. Palin is pulling 20,000 and 40,000 everywhere she goes.

Although everyone tells us that "Obama won the debate", McCain is the one getting the bounce.

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cjk002:

McCain's averages have inched up about 1 point since Wednesday's debate (from 42% to 42.9%)on RCP. Is this the "surge" in the polls that all the trolls have been screeching about for the last 3 days?

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johncoz:

Boomshak,

Obama hasn't moved outside 50-51 on my tracker average for 2 weeks. And my tracker is more conservative than Pollster or RCP in its spread estimate. Fact.

And yesterday saw no change from the day before. Fact.

what has happened (as I said yesterday) was that McCain this week picked up about 1.6% to breach 44%. That movement halted yesterday. Fact.

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Ulysses:

Boom:

with all due respect, the numbers don't look as rosy for McCain as you seem to think. Your interpretation seems to ignore some glaring facts:

McCain's new scorched earth strategy is losing as many voters as it seems to be (only incrementally) gaining. Polls show Obama with almost 55% in California, 49% in Ohio, 51% in Colorado, 50% in Nevada, and 5 points ahead in Florida (!!) -- this is staggering, and unheard of for a Democratic candidate. If these numbers -- in just these states -- stay within 3 points of where they are now, with only two weeks to go, McCain is cooked.
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BOOMFAIL:

McShame can bounce all he wants, but never breaks above 45% in the major trackers. Obama's numbers are steady at 50.

Individual battleground states will decide this election, and all of those HAVE shown movement this week. A surge towards Obama! Checkout MO, CO, NV, FL, VA, NC etc. Obama wins one, and it's done!

McShame needs to sweep ALL of them. Not gonna happen.

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bmrKY:

"boom****:

Palin is pulling 20,000 and 40,000 everywhere she goes."

It's official boom****. You are a ****ing moron.

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SoloBJ:

I wonder what the format is going to be on 10/29 when Obama has his 30 minute segment on the major networks. I'm sure he as well as other people expects the race to tighten up which is probably why he put out the money for 30 minutes of airtime.

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Trosen:

What I'd like to see Obama do is consolidate his efforts into 3 or 4 of these former Bush states (besides OH and FL obviously, maybe MO, VA, or NC for instance). I think this idea to forge ahead in all these places like GA, ND, KY, WV in an effort to get McCain to stretch himself paper thin in an effort to plug every hole in the dam is a faulty premise. McCain has to hold his breath and hope some of these GOP strongholds just hold on their own. Hell, he's already more or less forsaken CO and NV. A couple of big fish like VA and NC for Obama and it's over, even if FL and OH stay red. We'll see what happens in the next few days. Obama is playing a little coy right now. They have a couple of big news makers lined up for the next 14 days. Some have been more or less leaked out already.

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drdr:

To win, McCain needs to improve his national standing by 4-5 additional points in the polls. Then he needs to thread the needle winning all of the Bush states except IA, NM, NH just to get to 274 EV.

To do this McCain has to hope that his turnout operation beats Obama's (unlikely given polls showing significantly higher Dem enthusiasm this year) and that the cellphone-only voters don't go to the polls. And he needs to overcome the large lead in early voting Obama is building up at a time when Obama is still ahead in the polls beyond MOE. Of course if Obama supports get overconfident and think the election is over, that would help McCain.

But if you think McCain can really do all this and win, then you can get a heck of deal on Intrade right now at 16.6. Come back on Nov. 5 and tell us how much money you made.

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bmrKY:

MUH-KANEZ GONNA WIN IT ALLZ YALL! OBAMA DROPZ 40 POINTZ IN ONE WEEK! LOOK FOR STATISTICAL TIE BY SUNDEE! PALIN IS A ROCKSTAR CELEBRITY! WAIT... DIDN'T I ATTACK OBAMA BECAUSE I SAID HE WAS A CELEBRITY? OH ****, CAN'T EVEN KEEP UP WITH MY OWN TALKING POINTS! ALL I NO IS:

FAIL!

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Kile Thomson:

Boomshak is clearly posting BS

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MNlatteliberal:

@1Angry,
I posted a LONG (sorry) answer to your ? back in the CA poll thread.

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zen:

Boomshack:

Where Obama underperformed polls are CA, NH, Rhode island.... in fact, mostly the democratic region... where people can't express their racial bias easily....
But he outperformed polls in VA, NC...(more than double digits)... in red states, nobody is shy to express racism because it is common.

So, you can take NH...
But obama will certainly take VA, NC.

And don't forget... in rasumssen poll you have to add 2-3 percent to obama... because they miss cell phone users...

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mysticlaker:

I hope it is a 25 minute town hall meeting...And a 5 minute bio piece.

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Commander_King:

Boomshak you are a liar.McCain is not pulling in these undecideds and the McCain campaign is lying about crowd sizes.You are so pathetic.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

Thanks man good to know. She is uber-creepy and everytime I see her talk I wonder how any reasonable or intelligent person could vote for her. Really if I believed in the Devil I think she'd be it.

Thanks for taking a stand against evil and now I'm going to have to go and donate more money just because she sounds even worse that I imagined.

http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/18660

Tinklenberg has raised like $100K in the 16 hours since she went off the reservation. I hope he uses the money to play that Harball interview in a 24/7 loop so everyone in her district knows what a wacko she is.

American fascism, thy name is Bachmann.

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BOOMFAIL:

McShame can lie about the size of the crowds for Palin all he wants. Guess that makes her the celebrity, the ONE, the Messiah, HEH!

He has a hard time getting any crowds without her. Pathetic.

Please, Please, PLEASE choose her as your candidate in 2012 Rethugs. I need to be entertained again in 4 years!

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slegend:

Bush States Flipped:

Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia

EVs: 34

McCain should just retire - nothing like going down in history as a person that try to re-ignite the KKK.

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southern angler:

Fact- McCain mopped the floor with Obama at the first and last debates, beat him like a bitch, if you will. The national numbers are now proving it. State numbers are soon to follow.

Fact- Sarah Palin is drawing record crowds everywhere she goes. People love her and really relate to her like noone else before.

Fact- Obama peaked some time ago and once you peak there is only one way to go, down.

Fact- Dems know Obama is in trouble, especially the dems that post here. Thats why they are so diligently guarding this website in support of their guy.

Fact- As long as the media pretends that this election is in the bag for Obama they will also serve notice to all of the would be Obama voters to just stay home because this is a done deal.

So I am supporting the Lib trolls who literally live here by saying "Sure Obama is going to win, so stay home to save your gas money, to nurse your hang overs, don't risk getting picked up for your warrants at the polls. Just stay home, this election is in the bag."

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Napoleon Complex:

@BOOMFAIL:

Sorry to disappoint you, but Palin will lose her re-election bid in 2010 and will then slip into obscurity. :-)

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Vokoban:

Southern Angler,

you seem to have some trouble understanding the word "fact".

fact: the world was created 4004 bc...

Vote McCain!

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Incumbent:

Wow. Pretty much any reasonable person admits that the national polls are likely to tighten as we get closer to ED. So every day I come on here and see the major nationals still with +4 or more for Obama is really a pleasant surprise.

As I've said before though, I think the practically inevitable eventual tightening will be a good last-minute motivator for Obama supporters who might get complacent in the final days. We'll see...

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kerrchdavis:

McCain's "surge" is over. The polls have stabilized and are starting to inch back up slightly. Obama polled 1 point better in dkos (1 day) compared to the day before, obviously polled better in Rasmussen yesterday (to go up 1 in a 3 day tracker) and polled very slightly worse yesterday in zogby.

More importantly, Obama continues to embarrass the Republican Party by leading or being tied in states like NC, ND and MO. He has solid leads in VA, CO and small leads in OH and FL.
McCain needs to win every single one of these states and the Obama lead has continued to increase.

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Commander_King:

What is wrong with these right wing nuts LYING about Palin's crowd sizes?She's a bitch and people hate her..thus she has massive disapproval ratings.Also..lets just say she had big crowd sizes wouldn't that make her a CELEBRITY...oh wait thats Obama.You people are so pathetic.

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boomshak:

HORRIBLE NEWS FOR OBAMA - JUST OUT!

National Gas prices fall below $3 a gallon! NOTHING changes people's perception of the economy more than what they pay at the pump. It now costs 1/3 less to fill up than it did just months ago.

Also, with warren Buffet telling America that NOW if the time to buy stock and the morning financial news shows saying NOW is the time to buy stock, we could see a major rally for the next 3 weeks (assuming people don't sell in fear of Obama's Socialist Revolution).

So, surging Dow, plummeting gas prices - neither of these good for Obama.

They say bad news comes in 3's. What's the third leg? Israel attacks Iran's nuke facilities maybe?

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boomshak:

HORRIBLE NEWS FOR OBAMA - JUST OUT!

National Gas prices fall below $3 a gallon! NOTHING changes people's perception of the economy more than what they pay at the pump. It now costs 1/3 less to fill up than it did just months ago.

Also, with warren Buffet telling America that NOW if the time to buy stock and the morning financial news shows saying NOW is the time to buy stock, we could see a major rally for the next 3 weeks (assuming people don't sell in fear of Obama's Socialist Revolution).

So, surging Dow, plummeting gas prices - neither of these good for Obama.

They say bad news comes in 3's. What's the third leg? Israel attacks Iran's nuke facilities maybe?

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boomshak:

oops, sorry for the double-post :)

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Vokoban:

The third leg? Boomshak replaces Palin as VP nominee!

Vote McCain!

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mm:

For you guys,political junkies. Read my lips: McCain will win this election !!!

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sotonightthatimightsee:

BOOMFAIL:

I hope you're as respectful to Ras poll when McCain takes the lead as you are now!

Will we hear "Well, you know...Ras leans repub lol?

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Commander_King:

Boomshak...you are pathetic.gas prices have been falling for weeks,and simply put average people don't give a **** about the dow.This is not bad news for Obama.Go back to your little cave Boomshak.

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Vokoban:

Seriously: a look at history shows the manic-depressive behavior of the stock market will not go away that easily. Nobody trusts a rally anymore.

And nobody of the small people has money to spend on stocks anyway.

So how could there be a 3 weeks rally?

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Incumbent:

@boomshak
"National Gas prices fall below $3 a gallon! NOTHING changes people's perception of the economy more than what they pay at the pump."

Yeah, I'm sure my coworker will be thrilled about that. She was planning to retire in 2 months but because she's lost 30% of her retirement savings in the last 4 months she figures she'll have to keep working for at least another year. But at least it will cost her a few cents less to fill up her tank for the drive to work every day, right???

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fed:

Just wait, unemployment numbers for the month of October will be out the weekend before the elections and unfortunatly, I think they will not look so good

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Trosen:

southern angler:

"So I am supporting the Lib trolls who literally live here by saying "Sure Obama is going to win, so stay home to save your gas money, to nurse your hang overs, don't risk getting picked up for your warrants at the polls. Just stay home, this election is in the bag."


I'd love for you to come say to my face that I should stay home so as not to get picked up for my "arrest warrant." And sorry to burst your bubble, but us "trolls" are working overtime to close the deal. Let's see what other personal smears you can throw my way tough guy.

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richard pollara:

DrDr:

Now that you can no longer print money by offering CDS's the in-trade markets may be the last place for easy money. Last March, as I posted on Pollster, you could get Hillary at four to one odds a few days before the Texas Primary. If my memory is correct you could also get Hillary and 3-2 odds in Ohio. McCain is clearly in trouble, but a 2 or 3 point move in the polls gives him a chance to draw his inside straight. Is he behind? Absolutely. But a 10-1 underdog? Sounds like a pretty good bet to me.

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cjk002:

@drdr:

Even if McCain wins all the Bush states except NH, IA, and NM, he still only ties Obama at 269 (not 274).

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kerrchdavis:

@Trosen

Souther Angler is a prick. His "facts" are all bull****.

You want a fact?

FACT: Obama is winning the election convincingly at the moment. He has a 4-5 point lead nationally and he is leading the electoral college by landslide proportions, with leads in swing states that continue to grow.


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boomshak:

PALIN VASTLY OUTDRAWS OBAMA AT SAME VENUE!

Here is an e-mail I received from tipster "Patrick" who volunteered at the Noblesville event discussed below. I think it does a great job of capturing the mood and the spirit of those who are attending not just this rally, but all of the rallies in recent weeks.

Bear this in mind when you read Patrick's account: The attendance at the GOP Convention was in the 20,000-22,000 range. Palin is matching that over and over again.

It's pretty impressive when the VP candidate can hold the equivalent of a National Convention in every state she visits.

"The press reports I have seen estimated the crowd at somewhere between 15,000 to 24,000. I think those are all low. I can’t estimate a crowd well, but the rally was held at a concert venue with an official capacity of 24,000. I asked members of the venue security staff to estimate the crowd size and they all said it was overcapacity, which was something that troubled them from a security/crowd control stand point. The large lawn that is normally full of blankets and lawn chairs during a concert was 75% to 80% full of people standing.

One security guard (who told me he was undecided in this election) estimated the crowd at 28,000 to 30,000. The same security guard also worked the Obama rally held last week in Indianapolis (different venue) and he estimated that crowd at around 20,000 (which was consistent with the Obama’s campaign’s estimate of 21,000).

Even though the rally was not set to begin until 4:30, people started showing up early in the morning to get in line. I got there at 11 am and there were already several hundred people waiting . By 12:30, I could not see the end of the line from the front gate.

The crowd absolutely loved Sarah. They were every bit as enthusiastic as the crowd at the convention, except this was full of regular people instead of just party faithful. Everyone wanted a sign, flag, pom-pom, or something to wave. We would literally open a box of something and it would be empty in just a couple of minutes. If anything, the campaign way underestimated the demand for things to wave.

I would estimate the crowd was at least 60% - 40% female to male, if not higher. There were a lot of little babies and a lot of special needs kids. It was very obvious from watching the crowd that Sarah Palin has connected with women, the pro-life movement, and special needs communities in a very deep and personal way.

There were also a lot of vets in attendance and they were repeatedly honored both formerly and informally. For example, before the rally began and people were still finding seats, there were several times that the crowd broke out in spontaneous applause because a vet was crossing the stage to get to his seat. These were heartfelt and enthusiastic demonstrations of gratitude from people who truly love and support the troops.

After her speech was over, Palin went into the crowd and stayed for at least half an hour signing autographs, holding babies, and shaking hands. There were several thousand people still there when she had to leave shortly before 7 pm. Bear in mind that for many of these people this was a twelve hour or more event when you factor in all the time they spent driving here, waiting in line to get in, waiting for the rally to start, etc...

I think it is hard to understate how much Sarah Palin has energized the Republican base and how invested they are in her as a candidate and a person, in ways they haven’t been about John McCain. One of the most common things I heard from people was that they wished McCain would let Palin off the leash and let her do her thing.

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zoot:

Southern Angler, how is the weather in that alternative universe you live in?

It's a waste of time to go through your post line by demented line, but where (besides your own fevered imagination) do you find any objective data to confirm that McCain won the 1st and 3rd debates? Where are the links to confirm crowd size at Palin events? Where is evidence that the media is stating that this is in the bag for Obama?

And while you're at it, where is Judge Crater? Send him my regards when you bump into him....

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bmrKY:

southern angler:
Fact- McCain mopped the floor with Obama at the first and last debates, beat him like a bitch, if you will. The national numbers are now proving it. State numbers are soon to follow.

Fact- Sarah Palin is drawing record crowds everywhere she goes. People love her and really relate to her like noone else before.

Fact- Obama peaked some time ago and once you peak there is only one way to go, down.

Fact- Dems know Obama is in trouble, especially the dems that post here. Thats why they are so diligently guarding this website in support of their guy.

Fact- As long as the media pretends that this election is in the bag for Obama they will also serve notice to all of the would be Obama voters to just stay home because this is a done deal.

So I am supporting the Lib trolls who literally live here by saying "Sure Obama is going to win, so stay home to save your gas money, to nurse your hang overs, don't risk getting picked up for your warrants at the polls. Just stay home, this election is in the bag."

---

You sir, are what I like to call, a tool.

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kerrchdavis:

zzZZzz

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southern angler:

Boom funny you should metion Israel/Iran. I have been thinking along the same lines. I believe an Israeli strick could come at anytime. Israel knows that an Obama administration will be very weak on foreign policy and may very well turn their back on Israel altogether.

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boomshak:

@Incumbent:
@boomshak
"National Gas prices fall below $3 a gallon! NOTHING changes people's perception of the economy more than what they pay at the pump."

Yeah, I'm sure my coworker will be thrilled about that. She was planning to retire in 2 months but because she's lost 30% of her retirement savings in the last 4 months she figures she'll have to keep working for at least another year. But at least it will cost her a few cents less to fill up her tank for the drive to work every day, right???

And Obama would have fixed that how exactly? So she lost 30% in last few months? From where, the HIGH in the market (which was over-inflated)?

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Vokoban:

Boom,
who are you trying to convince with this biased crap? Take a look at the polls. Palin sucks for 2 out of 3 voters. Only the radical right loves her. Plus 6 leftover Hillary fans.

Try winning an election with that.

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NHBlue:

@Napoleon

You heard it here first

2012: Palin heads up a third-party bid and siphons off the GOP base, leaving the republican party with the moderates: a couple of voters in Maine and Connecticut.

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Incumbent:

southern angler is sure angling for a spot in the McCain cabinet. I wouldn't hold your breath, "my friend".

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cinnamonape:

Guess we know where Boom and the other trolls on this site were yesterday. They were out participating in early voting in North Carolina.

Sadly 64% of those out there were voting for Obama-Biden and only 22% would own up to voting for McCain.

FAIL!

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/54396.html

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Trosen:

I don't have a problem with Republican trolls acting like cheerleaders. That's their perrogative. But when idiots start these asinine generalizations and start throwing the "anti-american" and "deadbeat/criminal" charges, they show how utterly useless they are and shame their entire political "side."

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southern angler:

sorry ..strike

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bmrKY:

boom, you do know that the McCain campaign has LIED about the size of their crowds within the past two weeks, right?

Besides, I thought you guys hated people who drew crowds and rallied people together, because they're "celebrities" and "elitist"

BOOM****-- his motto "Just keep making it up as we go along"

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BOOMFAIL:

Taken right from Rasmussen: "These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-three straight days. McCain has not been up by even a single point in over a month (see trends)."

And the surge would be.........??????

btw boombatty-McShame can lie about the size of the crowds for Palin all he wants. Guess that makes her the celebrity, the ONE, the Messiah, HEH!

Hypocrites.

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Vokoban:

No, "strick" was okay. Just some freudian slip.

In German that means "rope" - like in "hang that nigger!"

You don't need to excuse, we can read you anyway.

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boomshak:

IF IT WALKS LIKE A DUCK AND IT QUACKS LIKE A DUCK...

McCain suggests Obama tax policies are socialist

By GLEN JOHNSON, Associated Press Writer Glen Johnson, Associated Press Writer – 48 mins ago

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Saturday accused Democratic rival Barack Obama of favoring a socialistic economic approach by supporting tax cuts and tax credits McCain says would merely shuffle wealth rather than creating it.

"At least in Europe, the Socialist leaders who so admire my opponent are upfront about their objectives," McCain said in a radio address. "They use real numbers and honest language. And we should demand equal candor from Sen. Obama. Raising taxes on some in order to give checks to others is not a tax cut; it's just another government giveaway."

McCain, though, has a health care plan girded with a similar philosophy. He proposes providing individuals with a $5,000 tax credit to buy health insurance. He would pay for his plan, in part, by considering as taxable income the money their employer spends on their health coverage.

McCain leveled his charge before a pair of appearances aimed at restoring his lead in critical battleground states. In both North Carolina and Virginia, where McCain was to speak later in the day, his campaign has surrendered its lead to Obama in various polls. President Bush, a Republican, won both states in 2004.

The state dips mimic larger national trends that have given Obama a lead over McCain following Wall Street chaos that focused the race on who is best equipped to restore the economy.

On Sunday, McCain was to travel to Ohio, where he might appear with "Joe the Plumber," the Holland, Ohio, plumber Joe Wurzelbacher whom the senator has been portraying as emblematic of people with concerns about Obama's tax plans.

Wurzelbacher became the focal point of the final presidential debate after he met Obama earlier in the week and said the Democrat's tax proposal could keep him from buying the two-man plumbing company where he works. However, reports of Wurzelbacher's annual earnings suggest he would receive a tax cut rather than an increase under Obama's plan.

Obama has said his tax policies would cut payments for 95 percent of working Americans, while increasing them only for families making more than $250,000 a year. McCain has argued that 40 percent of Americans don't pay income taxes, either because they are seniors or don't meet minimum earnings thresholds, so the only way to cut their taxes is to give them various credits.

"In other words, Barack Obama's tax plan would convert the IRS into a giant welfare agency, redistributing massive amounts of wealth at the direction of politicians in Washington," McCain said in the radio address.

An Obama spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

NEW FLASH - Most Americans aren't so crazy about Socialism.

I think McCain should just come out and ask Obama what he thinks of Socialism.

The last Democratic candidate to win North Carolina was Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976 when the Republicans were reeling from President Nixon's resignation following the Watergate scandal. Virginia has not voted for a Democratic nominee since President Johnson's landslide victory in 1964.

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jonny87:

good to see obama hold steady on ras. anyone a premium member? seen any movement with indies?

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Vokoban:

boom,
that only proves that McCain doesn't even know what the word "socialism" means.

I would expect from my president he's familiar with the most important political concepts.

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bmrKY:

@ BOOMFAIL

HEH?

What about that boom****

HEH?

Isn't he something

HEH?

I'm John MUH-KANE and I approve this message...

HEH?

____________________

kerrchdavis:
____________________

Eternal:

To everyone except Boom.

Why do you all argue with him when he's obviously delusional?

He's convinced himself Palin was a GREAT choice, McCain is on the "comeback", people care about Ayers and polls are manipulated to discourage him, except when they don't. You can't argue logically with post rational people, stop banging your head against the wall.

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Boris_Dieter:

Screw the national polling results. They are fine, and with those numbers McCain is toast. The main thing is McCain is still out of it and getting in deeper kimshee each day. Forget Boomshak and the rest of the GOP dung-fleas here and start calling and working to get out the Obama/Biden vote.

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bmrKY:

bmrKY SUGGESTS THAT BOOM****S POSTS ARE DUMB****-ILIST!

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Vokoban:

@ eternal

It's more like a fun way of sparring, you know. Nobody takes boom serious. Probably not even he himself.

Or at least I hope so. For his mental health.

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Incumbent:

@boomshak
"And Obama would have fixed that how exactly?"

It's all about perception, boom. Polls shows a healthy majority of Americans believe Obama will be better for the economy. Multiply my coworker's experience by the millions of others in a similar situation across the country and slightly lower gas prices just aren't going to make them change their minds.

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Trosen:

I have no personal problem with boomshak and kiptin for instance. Boom wants to believe that within the next 17 days Congress will dissolve the Electoral College and McCain will gain the presidency based on popular vote (which he'll also lose actually). Kiptin wants to believe McCain will garner 20+ % of the AA vote because of all the military AA retirees in VA and FL. That's their prerogative, and if I was in their positions, I'd probably be grasping at any straw I could think of to keep myself from heavy drinking or severe depression. But you know.. I am obviously a liberal Democrat. My father is a staunch conservative Republican. Somehow we manage to co-exist happily without calling each other "communist" "nazi" "deadbeat" "welfare recipient" "fascist", etc.

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kerrchdavis:

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

open the door and the desk cabinetS! lol!

____________________

Pat:

@bmrKY:

Don't you worry about turn-out on election day for Obama. Pollsters will have nothing to do with that.

You know what will impact turn out on election day for Obama???

Racist robo calls from McShame.

As long as those phone calls are goin on, Obama supporters will show up at the polls.

Keep dreaming for now ..... you will soon wake up from your dream and President obama will be on TV addressing the nation.

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Eternal:

Vokoban,

Understood but I think you all underestimate Boom, I think he really believes what he writes.

I used to think he was doing all this tongue in cheek, but I'm not so sure now.

____________________

Tom:

Consider the following;

In the three trackers released so far today, Obama has been between 48% and 50% while McCain has been between 43% and 45%. That would indicate a small but statistically significant lead for Obama. In the gallup tracker, Obama has been below 50% only five times in the last three weeks, below 49% only twice and never below 48% while McCain has been above 43% exactly once. In the Rasmussen poll, Obama's lead has been between 4 to 8 points for the last 23 days. In that timeframe, Obama has never been below 50%, and McCain has been above 45% for all of two days. While the Daily Kos poll is showing some tightening, it seems to be more reverting to the mean of other pollsters since it always seemed to have the lowest McCain number.

I do expect this race to tighten up over the next week to ten days. During that period, the McCain trolls here, Matt Drudge, and the MSM will report that McCain is making a stellar comeback. However, after the "second thoughts" phaze ebbs, Obama will gain back most of his lead. Historically, leads of this magnitude this far out almost never go away. It looks like Obama will win the election with between 350 and 375 EVs and the popular vote by six to eight points. Not a landslide, but close enough.

@ southern angler

I assume you are joking, right? McCain mopped the florr with Obama at the debates? Were you watching the debates in bizarro world?

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bill kapra:

Hotline 49-42

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Napoleon Complex:

@NHBlue:

Right. And boom-iqlessthan100-shak will be her running mate. Sad what these people have done to the Republican Party.

Gotta go knock on some doors for Obama here in NC. Poor boomshak has no idea what's happening right under his nose.

____________________

Vokoban:

@ Eternal,

if you are right, tough luck for him. He should look out for professional help then.

____________________

carl29:

I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 42

Average: Obama 49 McCain 43.6

YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 48.7 McCain 43.7
Hotline, Obama 50 McCain 40

Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.2

* I will update numbers when Gallup is out :-)

____________________

Pat:

@bmrKY:

Sorry for my previous post. It was meant for boomshak.

____________________

Trosen:

I won't lie, the Obama campaign is not thrilled about some of these tightening national #s. They still feel very confident based on state polling. But they anticipated this back when Gallup and others were showing ridiculous +12,13,14 spreads a week or 2 ago. They have a plan, several things in the works. Obama supporters will enjoy the next few days and the subsequent news cycles.

____________________

Vokoban:

With Obama ruling the airwaves and the networks it will be very hard for McCain to even tighten the race.

McCain has spent most of his money. He's completely depending on the RNC now. And these guys have a couple of problems on their own.

If Putin doesn't try to invade the USA McCain will not be able to stand against the tide that is coming.

____________________

jonny87:

Trosen,

'Obama supporters will enjoy the next few days and the subsequent news cycles'

i hope so.

it appears the obama campaign thought they could just walk this home. its not the case.

____________________

SoloBJ:

Trosen, what do you mean "they have a plan, several things in the works"? Is that what you guess/think is the case or something you personally know to be true?

____________________

bpd1069:

McCain/Palin has degenerated into a campaign that appeals to racists, fascists and fearful.

Thank goodness the psychology of 9/11 is wearing off...

____________________

Vokoban:

>it appears the obama campaign thought they could just walk this home. its not the case.

For one McCain add there are 4 Obama adds running. Doesn't sound like a campaign walking home. Sounds more like a train full steam ahead running over McCain.

____________________

orange24:

I hope you're right, Trosen. I'm still confident in the electoral map, but what concerns me is the Obama campaign just coasting to the finish like the primaries. It's not just Obama, democrats in general have been doing that in the last several elections - even the ones that Clinton won. Gore and Kerry both had October leads at some point, but fizzled down the stretch. It just seems like they're too concerned about making a mistake. Obama has not answered any of John McCains campaign rhetoric. Don't underestimate the ignorance of the electorate. If one keeps saying something about the other and the other never does anything to counter it, a lot will assume the attack is true. Kerry thought it was laugable that a draft dodger would question his patriotism, counting on the electorate to see it as the political ploy that it was. When he didn't squash the attack, it became assumed fact to just the right number of undecideds.

Obama needs to get back in this fight right now. I send the campaign emails stating the same over and over again (I know nobody reads them, but it makes me feel better). He's got to get off the bench and start swinging again. He was at his very best in this campaign when he was down six coming out of the Republican Convention. Get that swagger back and get it back soon.

____________________

Pat:

@Trosen,

"they have a plan, several things in the works"?

Are you talking about possible high profile endorsements? Do you know some details. Please share.

____________________

zotz:

This is the account of Federal Reserve Secretary Marriner S. Eccles. He headed the Fed in the Roosevelt administration. Here he is talking about how the concentration of wealth in the upper 1% of the population caused the Great Depression. This is the argument for "spreading the wealth".

"As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth — not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced — to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nations economic machinery. [Emphasis in original.]

Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.

That is what happened to us in the twenties. We sustained high levels of employment in that period with the aid of an exceptional expansion of debt outside of the banking system. This debt was provided by the large growth of business savings as well as savings by individuals, particularly in the upper-income groups where taxes were relatively low. Private debt outside of the banking system increased about fifty per cent. This debt, which was at high interest rates, largely took the form of mortgage debt on housing, office, and hotel structures, consumer installment debt, brokers' loans, and foreign debt. The stimulation to spending by debt-creation of this sort was short-lived and could not be counted on to sustain high levels of employment for long periods of time. Had there been a better distribution of the current income from the national product — in other words, had there been less savings by business and the higher-income groups and more income in the lower groups — we should have had far greater stability in our economy. Had the six billion dollars, for instance, that were loaned by corporations and wealthy individuals for stock-market speculation been distributed to the public as lower prices or higher wages and with less profits to the corporations and the well-to-do, it would have prevented or greatly moderated the economic collapse that began at the end of 1929.

The time came when there were no more poker chips to be loaned on credit. Debtors thereupon were forced to curtail their consumption in an effort to create a margin that could be applied to the reduction of outstanding debts. This naturally reduced the demand for goods of all kinds and brought on what seemed to be overproduction, but was in reality underconsumption when judged in terms of the real world instead of the money world. This, in turn, brought about a fall in prices and employment.

Unemployment further decreased the consumption of goods, which further increased unemployment, thus closing the circle in a continuing decline of prices. Earnings began to disappear, requiring economies of all kinds in the wages, salaries, and time of those employed. And thus again the vicious circle of deflation was closed until one third of the entire working population was unemployed, with our national income reduced by fifty per cent, and with the aggregate debt burden greater than ever before, not in dollars, but measured by current values and income that represented the ability to pay. Fixed charges, such as taxes, railroad and other utility rates, insurance and interest charges, clung close to the 1929 level and required such a portion of the national income to meet them that the amount left for consumption of goods was not sufficient to support the population.

This then, was my reading of what brought on the depression"
http://techrepublic.com.com/5208-6230-0.html?forumID=102&threadID=274998&start=0

____________________

carl29:

Guys, don't get all crazy and hysterical.

Look at the numbers but also the narrative,

From Diageo/Hotline:

"The Base That They Gave Me. Obama now leads LVs by 7%; one week ago, in the survey completed 10/10, his lead was 10%. While Obama's margins among Indies and Dems are nearly identical to last week, McCain's advantage among GOPers has jumped 10%."

Zogby said something along the same lines:

'"Today was the first full sample post-debate and there's a clear indication that McCain is moving up,' Zogby said.

He added that McCain's support among Republican voters appeared to be consolidating.

McCain was backed by 91 percent of Republicans in the poll, while Obama drew support from just 88 percent of Democrats. But Obama still enjoyed a 16-point advantage among independent voters, which many analysts expect to be a deciding factor in the November 4 election."

McCain is moving up because he is bringing Republicans back home. Make no mistake this thing won't be won among just Republicans or Democrats. Independents will be the key. In 2000 Bush won Independents by 1% and in 2004 Kerry won Independents by 1%.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

So John McCain's definition of socialism is 'taxing people to give other people tax credits.'

Hmmm, what about those $5000 checks you plan to mail to every American to buy healthcare, Senator? Is that SOCIALIZED MEDICINE?

What about the $5000 tax credit for anyone who buys a low emissions automobile? SOCIALIZED TREE HUGGING?

I guess Bob Barr is the only choice for Joe Plumber.

____________________

Vokoban:

As I wrote yesterday: McCain now got the votes of the religious fascists.

But how he could get the center vote now, especially after this campaign, escapes me.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

You're supposed to be consolidate your base at the convention, not the last two weeks of the campaign. There's a reason for that and you can see it in the independent numbers.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

You're supposed to consolidate your base at the convention, not the last two weeks of the campaign. There's a reason for that and you can see it in the independent numbers.

____________________

joethedummer:

by this time next week ohio, missouri, north carolina and north dakota will be blue!


boomcrack will spin it as a mcshameonyou surge lol!

____________________

joethedummer:

By this time next week ohio, missouri, north carolina and north dakota will be blue!


boomcrack will spin it as a mcshameonyou surge lol!

____________________

johncoz:

@carl29
"McCain is moving up because he is bringing Republicans back home"

I think that's correct. But that upward movement did not come at the expense of Obama's support.

____________________

Chenna:

@Boomshak

I think you have been drinking too much of that McCain Kool-Aid.

On average Obama has stayed at 50-52 percent for the past week. McCain, has gotten above 45 in poll this week, Rasmussen 50-46.

So, Boom you can go ahead and pull for your guy, but lets be realistic here.

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

I really think that the Obama/Biden should run this one hard against McCain/Palin:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ735Jdxn6A

What was Palin thinking saying that she liked to visit the Pro-American parts of the country.

____________________

jonny87:

johncoz,

i dont think its simply republicans coming home. i think indie support for obama has softened with some going over to mccain. most surveys still show obamas dem support in the high 80s despite his numbers easing off a little.

____________________

metsmets:

My friends, I am tired of long, long, boring op-ed pieces being reprinted here as if they are facts.
My friends, if you want to sift thru' that garbage you can but don't think that it represents real opinions. It is partisan garbage.

My friends, we don't need to have entire speeches read into the record. What is this? Congress?

I'm waiting for the first post that says

OBAMA has 50% so if McCain can get to 52-53% he'll win.

My friends. If the poll says OBAMA 48, 49 or 50% in the polls nationally, I don't need to know what McCain's numbers are..I can deduct a two digit number from a hundred - like other liberal elitists!

nuff said

____________________

carl29:

jonny87,

Well, your opinion. Unfortunately, Zogby, Ras, and, the people at Hotline/Diageo don't agree with you. Don't worry not everyone has to agree with you, my friend :-). Keep it up!!!

____________________

MileHigh:

Follow the money or lack thereof. I think the RNC will soon bail on McCain in an effort to stop the Dems from getting a 60 seat majority. I think they will succeed, but will they be able to prevent a landslide at the same time? Perhaps so, Charlie.

Southern Angler, you keep up the good work! Shine on you crazy diamond. Catch a big bass for me. Have you ever thought of being a redneck comedian? You might be the next Larry the cable guy. Thanks for the laughs!

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

I think everyone here pays too much credit to these national polls, they really don't give you an accurate picture of what is going on.

For example, Bush Sr. beat Dukakis by 7.72% in the national polls but Bush won 79.2% of the electoral votes! (The final tally was Bush 426 - Dukakis 111). So as long as Obama holds onto his 4 - 6 point lead this thing won't even be close in electoral votes.

____________________

jonny87:

gallup

50 obama

42 mccain(-1)

ill take that

____________________

Trosen:

The announcements: news-cycle stories I'm referring to include $$ figures and 2 very high profile public figures. It shouldn't take too much to connect the dots.

____________________

carl29:

I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 42
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
Traditional

Average: Obama 49 McCain 44.5

YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 48.7 McCain 43.7
Hotline, Obama 50 McCain 40
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47

Average: Obama 49.4 McCain 44.1

These are the numbers for the day, guys :-)!!

____________________

Bigmike:

I keep seeing on here that you have to add to Obamas numbers in one poll because of cell phone users, and we have to add to Obamas numbers in another poll because of AA turnout, and we have to add to Obamas numbers in another poll because of new registrations, and we have to add to Obamas numbers......

If you guys are all correct, then you have to take 10 pts off Obama's numbers because us Republicans are all liars. We are telling pollsters we are gonna vote for Obama just to F*** with you.

____________________

shirefox:

@OneAngryDwarf

Here's that video of Rep. Michelle Bachmann on Hardball.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJIQm_7YAUI

____________________

syrac818:

I guess we can talk about Palin drawing 20,000 and how awesome that is. But we all know it's the top of the ticket that matters, and Obama just drew 100,000 in Missouri.

____________________

Rames1980:

"Here is an e-mail I received from tipster "Patrick" who volunteered at the Noblesville event"

I heard something else from another volunteer tipster, called "Don". He said there were only, like, 3 people at the Palin rally and they were all employed by the McCain campaign. The McCain campaign has been called out earlier in the campaign for exaggerating headcounts in their rallies, so we should take these kind of anonymous "sources" with a graind of salt. Or just ignore them.

"Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Saturday accused Democratic rival Barack Obama of favoring a socialistic economic approach by supporting tax cuts and tax credits McCain says would merely shuffle wealth rather than creating it."

Really, now. And the Wall Street bailout package that McCain voted for isn't socialist? Really, if Obama's tax plan of raising the rate on people who earn more than USD250.000/a is "socialist", then the Wall Street bailout comprising provisions for the government to receive bank shares is communist. McCain voted for that, so that makes him a communist, right?

Deng Xiaoping had a good proverb about the cat that catches mice. As long as it catches them, it doesn't matter if it's black or white. The bailout package was necessary, so it isn't very useful to label it socialist or otherwise.

McCain is playing with words trying to intimidate the voters. This once more underlines how he has no answers or solutions to offer - if he had, he'd be concentrating on them. A bit like Obama is doing.

____________________

s.b.:

Not only was Kerry ahead by 4-5% in the middle of october in 2004, he outspent Bush and the RNC by over 100 million.

Just a thought.

____________________



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