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US: Obama 50, McCain 45 (Zogby 10/24-26)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/24-26, 08; 1,203 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 45

 

Comments
decided:

Ignore Zogby. He is just trying to get media coverage for himself.

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British Observer:

Don't worry, I'm not up early, it's nearly 10am British time.
Obama steady at around 50% but McCain showing some improvement. Is there the chance that if McCain adds just a couple of percentage points in the last week he will be level pegging Obama?
Also what to make of the US strikes on Syria? There's a lot of news about the issue on British radio and television. Is it headline news in the US? Could it change the dynamic of the election and put emphasis on national security issues, and therefore favour McCain?
Also very interested in the concept of voters not revealing their true intentions to pollsters. There are other posts arguing that softer Obama supporters will opt for McCain once inside the voting booth? Is there any truth to any of these propositions?

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jonny87:

what impact,if any, do people expect the story on drudge to make?

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dissolutionman:

Jeez, Zogby's polls are all over the place.

Zogby: Oh look, the race is tightening!
Zogby: Oh look, Obama's rocketing ahead!
Zogby: Oh look, now it's tightening again!

In one freaking week. I'll stick with Rasmussen and Gallup.

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OGLiberal:

I gave up long ago worrying about Scott Rasmussen's politics when it comes to his daily tracking polls. His polls is the least likely to show big swings either ways. When it does show significant movement in either direction, he always points out the it may just be due to statistical noise. Often, that is the case. Zogby never points this out and presents each swing as some huge game change. Also, Rasmussen adjusts his party ID weightings weekly based on information he gathers in polls - he doesn't pull figures out of his butt or use dated 2004 methodology.

Actually, given Zogby's party weightings, 50-45 at this point sounds about right. There's no way Obama was ahead in his poll by 10 with only a +2 Dem party ID edge and the assumption that the voting demo this year will be the same as it was in 2004. But you have to give Obama a big lead to show the polls tightening when you go back to the real state of the race based on a 38D/36R polling sample. As noted above, it appears that Zogby is all about headlines and securing spots on FoxNews.

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jonny87:

drudge headline anyone?

im concerned but hopefully im just overreacting

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bmrKY:

@British Observer

It's zogby, don't pay much attention to it. Honestly, don't pay much attention to any of the national polls. All the national polls show my guy comfortably ahead, so I really have no motive for telling people to dismiss the national polls. It's just that our elections are decided in the Electoral College, not by popular vote (as Al Gore unfortunately found out 8 years ago). Look at the state polls. That will give you the best information on the current state of the race. I've been saying this since before I even signed up on here.

As for the situation in Syria, I'm not really sure what's going on. I gave up trying to figure out Bush and his wacko buddies years ago. But it appears to me that they are trying to scare people into voting for "the person who you can trust to keep you safe", aka McCain, aka the same bull**** they've been pulling for years. Personally, all this story about Syria does for me, as a voter, is remind me of what a ****ty job that Bush and his awful administration have done in foreign affairs, and reinforce my view of not wanting another warmongering loony toon in office. As for what undecided/indecisive/Joe Six Pack/dumbass voter will think about this situation with Syria, who knows. Personally, I believe that people who cast votes out of "fear" and "who they want to have a beer with" should be kicked in the balls/ovaries and have their voting rights taken away. But that's just my opinion.

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bmrKY:

@jonny87

What does the drudge headline say? Normally, I would go and check it out for myself, but I refuse to go to that assclowns website.

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johncoz:

Here's the graph for the three-day trackers (9-day weighted averages).

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3213/2976590870_0758cf90e0_b.jpg

With yesterday's result being:
O 51.1/ M 43.1/ +8.0

The take-home message is that Obama starts the week this morning 1 point up on last Monday, while McCain is 1 point down.

Zogby's support for Obama puts his numbers back within the standard deviation, but yesterday's outlier will not roll out of his figures until Tuesday.

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AdamSC:

It's going to tighten in this last week people, it's pointless to continue thinking that Obama is going to win in a complete landslide.

Too many dogmatic right-wing conservative republicans in this country for that to happen.

He'll win but only by maybe 10-20 EV's at most.

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OGLiberal:

@jonny87

That's "redistribution" stuff is just food for the base - ie, folks who aren't voting for Obama anyway. Remember, Obama never took back what he said to the plumber dude.

In the end, all Obama is talking about are adjustments to the progressive tax system in our nation. The progressive tax system exists today and has existed for years. And rates are often adjusted, up and down.

From Adam Smith, the "father" of capitalism:

"The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. A tax upon house-rents, therefore, would in general fall heaviest upon the rich; and in this sort of inequality there would not, perhaps, be anything very unreasonable. It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

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johncoz:

jonny,

The headline of course is not what Obama actually said. What a surprise! Bud that's Drudge.

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AdamSC:

Another bad week coming up for McCain if he wants to continue down this path of trying to throw everything from the kitchen sink to the bathroom tube at Obama.

It's rubbish to twist people's words and take them out of context to try and label your opponent as a 'socialist' 'communist' 'marxist'.

It's getting old and people are sick of republican smear tactics. Everything they say have become non-credible, who's left to listen to them other than their base?

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jonny87:

@OGLiberal

its the soundbites im concerned about...talking about the constitution and how supreme court decisions werent that radical.

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Publius:

OGLiberal

"its the soundbites im concerned about...talking about the constitution and how supreme court decisions werent that radical."

I wouldn't worry about this. It's the economy, pure and simple.

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maddiekat:

The Drudge thing will not get any legs because frankly Obama did not say what the headline said he did. The great news is there is only one more week of this for asshole scumbags like Drudge and Hannity to try and affect the race.

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alleyesontheprize:

The market is set to tank today so I would not be too concerned about comments made in 2001 that when in context make complete sense. Sound bits will not erase a 7 point deficit.

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Paul:

Zogby internals Monday Oct 27 to consider. You draw your own conclusion.

West region: McCain 49.1 to Obama 45.0
Holding base: McCain 87.1 to Obama 86.2
Independents: Obama 51.4 to McCain 38.4
Moderates: Obama 57.4 to McCain 37.0
Already voted: Obama 60.5 to McCain 36.1
Males: McCain 48.4 to Obama 45.6
Females: Obama 54.0 to McCain 42.0
Whites: McCain 53.9 to Obama 41.0
Hisp: Obama 71.6 to McCain 24.0
AA: Obama 88.3 to McCain 9.2

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bmrKY:

@Adam

It will tighten to about 4-5%, IMO, but I still think that it will be enough for a comfortable EC win for Obama. McCain is in a pretty big hole in NC early voting. Not saying it's a sure thing, but if NC goes, so does Virginia (Virginia will probably go regardless of NC). Colorado seems like a nice bet for Obama, as well. I also think Nevada, one of Florida or Ohio, and maybe a "surprise" state will all flip for Obama.

Bush only won by 2.4 percent in 04, and got a 35 EV win over Kerry. I agree that it's probably crazy to think that Obama's 10 point leads in some of the polls will hold. But I think that it's equally crazy to think that this race will all of a sudden become just a 1-2 point lead for Obama in the trackers just because "that's what always happens." First of all, two words: ground game. Obama has the type of ground game that has rarely (if ever) been seen in American politics. They should have no problem getting out the vote in the crucial states. Second of all, the trackers have shown Obama hitting low 50s for quite a while, and McCain stuck at around 44-45. Not all of the undecideds will flip for McCain, because there will probably still be some undecideds even on the very last day they do the tracking (hopefully those people just stay home if they can't make their mind up by now), and Obama will probably end up in the last polls at around 51-52 and McCain around 46-47. That's probably what the national vote will actually look like, with Barr, Nader and others getting around 2 percent of the vote combined.

Of course, this is all based on what I know as of RIGHT NOW. It could all change should a major incident occur (and it doesn't necessarily have to be an incident that harms Obama; it could simply just be more craziness from Camp McCain).

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sunnymi:

Reuters/Zogby Battleground Surveys:Obama Ahead in FL, MO, NV, NC, OH & VA

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1612

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maddiekat:

The Republican slime machine promised their sick bastards a whitey tape and could only deliver a tape of Obama discussing constitutional law. Say good night McSlimeball!!!

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Paul:

Zogby Internals Florida Oct 27

Overall: Obama 47.2, McCain 46.9
Already voted: Obama 54.5, McCain 39.5
Holding base: McCain 87.5, Obama 78.3
Independents: Obama 64.0, McCain 25
Moderates: Obama 57.7, McCain 36.5
Males: McCain 50.8, Obama 41.1
Females: Obama 52.8, McCain 43.4
Whites: McCain 56.2, Obama 39.0
Hisp: Obama 51.9, McCain 36.2
AA: Obama 94.3

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sunnymi:
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jonny87:

@Paul

thanks

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truebljb1:

As much as you dislike drudge...that is Barack Obama in his own words. It was posted yesterday and already viewed 130,000 times. I think it will hammer home his point of redistribution of wealth and give people pause that he will actually stop at $250,000. It all depends if the msm plays or reports this or not.

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jonny87:

democratic support in florida is a little dissappointing.

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Paul:

Zogby Internals Indiana Oct 27

Overall: Obama 44.0, McCain 50.2
Indianapolis: Obama 40.1, McCain 55.1
Already voted: Obama 53.8, McCain 45.5
Holding base: McCain 86.2, Obama 90.0
Independents: Obama 45.3, McCain 39.3
Moderates: Obama 56.8, McCain 38.9
Males: McCain 51.2, Obama 41.3
Females: Obama 49.4, McCain 46.5
Whites: McCain 55.5, Obama 38.6
Hisp: Obama 68.6, McCain 20.1
AA: Obama 100

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mysticlaker:

HAHA. A constitutional law question. Haha.

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Paul:

Zogby Internals Missouri Oct 27

Overall: Obama 48.2, McCain 45.7
KC Area: Obama 58.5, McCain 37.6
SW: McCain 55.6, Obama 34.4
St. Louis Metro: Obama 58.3, McCain 37.2
Already voted: Obama 52.8, McCain 45.3
Holding base: McCain 91.3, Obama 92.4
Independents: Obama 69.3, McCain 22.4
Moderates: Obama 57.7, McCain 36.5
Males: McCain na, Obama na
Females: Obama na, McCain na
Whites: McCain 52.1, Obama 41.1
Hisp: Obama 44.1, McCain 55.9
AA: Obama 94.8, McCain 3.0

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johncoz:

Zogby Interactive state polls are worth very little; they make his daily tracker look like a paragon of consistency.

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bmrKY:

"that is Barack Obama in his own words."

Okay. And here's Saint McMaverick in his own words:

"The fundamentals of the economy are strong."

"The jobs aren't coming back (to Michigan)"

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TheCanadian:

These are actually phone polls. I was surprised he did those at a state level.

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Paul:

Zogby Internals North Carolina Oct 27

Overall: Obama 49.7, McCain 46.4
East: Obama 57.9, McCain 39.1
Greensboro: McCain 63.5.6, Obama 33.1
Charlotte: Obama 40.9, McCain 54.7
Already voted: Obama 64.6, McCain 30.9
Holding base: McCain 89.0, Obama 89.0
Independents: Obama 56.1, McCain 34.9
Moderates: Obama 57.7, McCain 36.5
Males: McCain 46.4, Obama 46.6
Females: Obama 52.6, McCain 46.5
Whites: McCain 60.8, Obama 34.4
Hisp: Obama 38.3, McCain 52.2
AA: Obama 90.2, McCain 8.9

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Indiana4Obama:

The Zogby state polls are suspsicious. Mccain leads Obama in Indianapolis? No way...The Indianapolis metro area will go BIG for Obama and it's one of his keys to winning Indiana.

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Paul:

Zogby Internals Nevada Oct 27

Overall: Obama 48.2, McCain 44.0
Already voted: Obama 59.0, McCain 35.2
Holding base: McCain 84.6, Obama 90.5
Independents: Obama 46.0, McCain 32.4
Moderates: Obama 54.8, McCain 36.7
Males: McCain 46.4, Obama 44.0
Females: Obama 52.0, McCain 41.7
Whites: McCain 50.2, Obama 42.8
Hisp: Obama 57.6, McCain 28.1
AA: Obama 94.3, McCain 5.7

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johncoz:

@TheCanadian:
"These are actually phone polls. I was surprised he did those at a state level."

You are correct. I am surprised too.

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DTM:

@jonny87

What Obama said is this: the Warren Court wasn't that radical because it stayed within the boundaries set by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution and didn't attempt to redistribute wealth (e.g., through the granting of positive rights). There is nothing particularly controversial about any of that, and indeed it just confirms that Obama has a mainstream view about what sorts of enforceable rights exist in the Constitution.

But what you are seeing is people desperately seizing on the fact that he merely mentioned the concept of redistributing wealth and lying about what he actually said with respect to that concept. Specifically, they are suggesting Obama said he wanted the Warren Court to redistribute wealth, when in fact he actually said they stayed within the bounds of the Constitution by not redistributing wealth.

So will this be a huge issue? Not to high information voters, who will understand the lie. And probably not to low information voters either, unless the media somehow runs with the lie at face value. And in fact this cycle, for whatever reason, the media has been more inclined to actually point out when someone is lying than to merely echo lies.

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Paul:

Zogby Internals Ohio Oct 27

Overall: Obama 49.7, McCain 45.1
Cleveland: Obama 77.2, McCain 12.1
Cincinnati: McCain 59.4, Obama 39.1
Columbus: Obama 58.8, McCain 35.5
Already voted: Obama 68.3, McCain 22.7
Holding base: McCain 87.7, Obama 87.0
Independents: Obama 54.1, McCain 34.8
Moderates: Obama 62.0, McCain 32.5
Males: McCain 45.5, Obama 49.6
Females: Obama 49.8, McCain 44.7
Whites: McCain 50.9, Obama 43.5
Hisp: Obama 17.5, McCain 65.5
AA: Obama 100

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jonny87:

what the hells the context of the new clip?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11OhmY1obS4

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truebljb1:

Just so everyone knows...MSNBC is getting ready to run the audio of this clip. It just got published yesterday...this might catch fire. We will see.

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DTM:

I may be wrong, but as I recall Zogby has always done traditional state poll as well as his interactive polls.

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jonny87:

@DTM

'What Obama said is this: the Warren Court wasn't that radical because it stayed within the boundaries set by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution and didn't attempt to redistribute wealth (e.g., through the granting of positive rights)'

what im concerned about is that when people hear the 'decision wasnt that radical', people will equate that to obama wants to do some crazy radical stuff.

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Paul:

Zogby Internals Virginia Oct 27

Overall: Obama 52.0, McCain 44.8
DC Area: Obama 62.9, McCain 36.2
Richmond-Norfolk: McCain 42.0, Obama 54.1
Already voted: Obama 51.6, McCain 47.1
Holding base: McCain 88.5, Obama 96.5
Independents: Obama 54.2, McCain 36.6
Moderates: Obama 63.3, McCain 34.2
Males: McCain 45.5, Obama 51.0
Females: Obama 52.9, McCain 44.2
Whites: McCain 58.6, Obama 37.9
Hisp: Obama 78.7, McCain 14.3
AA: Obama 93.4, McCain 6.6

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SoloBJ:

@jonny87,
Is this suppose to be a new "October surprise?" Something to further the Repubs pathetic argument that Obama is a socialist?

____________________

DTM:

@truebljb1

Again, I don't think Obama has anything to fear from coverage of this issue as long as it is truthful (and that coverage points out when others are lying). As I noted above, that is because what Obama actually said is uncontroversial, and indeed confirms his mainstream views on the Constitution.

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boomshak:

CLEAR EVIDENCE OF OBAMA MARXISM:

The story is finally being told. First FoxNews, now Drudge. The MSM, of course, if completely ignoring it.

But for how long can they block the news from the American people? The 2001 "Redistribution of Wealth" story on Drudge is EXTREMELY DAMNING. I mean, he comes right out and says it. He is a Marxist. There is no other way to define it.

BUILDING THE ECONOMY FROM "BOTTOM UP"
My question to Obama supporters is this: How is this possible?

Unless people have a tree in their back yards that grows money, how do we "build the economy from the bottom up"? Where do the people on the bottom get the money to spend? From the government? Wealth redistribution?

People get paid from the top down. You have to build the econony from the top down. You have to encourage entrepreneurship and risk-taking to build the economy. But if you tell those people that you are going to TAKE their wealth and "spread it around",why should they take risks? Why should they create jobs?

CONCLUSION:
"Building the economy from the bottom" is the basis of Communism, pure and simple. From each according to his ability and to each according to his need.

Wake up Obama supporters and realize what you are supporting.

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jonny87:

@SoloBJ

it would appear so.

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bmrKY:

"truebljb1:
Just so everyone knows...MSNBC is getting ready to run the audio of this clip. It just got published yesterday...this might catch fire. We will see."

YAWN! After the 8 years of hell you guys have subjected us to, you have NO ROOM AT ALL to speak.

____________________

Paul:

Zogby Internals West Virginia Oct 27

Overall: Obama 40.4, McCain 50.3
Already voted: Obama 47.3, McCain 46.4
Holding base: McCain 86.9, Obama 64.0
Independents: Obama 31.0, McCain 47.3
Moderates: Obama 57.1, McCain 35.8
Males: McCain 51.6, Obama 39.5
Females: Obama 41.3, McCain 49.1
Whites: McCain 51.3, Obama 40.7
Hisp: Obama 62.7, McCain 37.3
AA: Obama 100

____________________

bmrKY:

"boom****: Wake up Obama supporters and realize what you are supporting."

Wake up boom**** and realize that you don't know what the hell you are talking about. Go spew your bull**** somewhere else, assclown.

____________________

boomshak:

@DTM:
@truebljb1

Again, I don't think Obama has anything to fear from coverage of this issue as long as it is truthful (and that coverage points out when others are lying). As I noted above, that is because what Obama actually said is uncontroversial, and indeed confirms his mainstream views on the Constitution.

UNCONTROVERSIAL???!!! Are you nuts?!

Redistribution of wealth is NOT uncontroversial. If you haven't forgotten, America is a capitalistic economy. It is based upon hard work and getting ahead and succeeding, not upon the government "inposing equality" on everyone.

You want "imposed equality" I give you the USSR. You are welcome to it.

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DTM:

@jonny87

There is no doubt that people who want McCain to win are going to push the idea that Obama wants the Supreme Court to do radical things, and generally that Obama is a radical. I just don't see how this clip supports that view: Obama saying the Warren Court wasn't that radical just isn't the same thing as Obama saying he wished the Warren Court was more radical, no matter how much interested parties may want you to believe that.

And again, I think the meta issue is whether or not the lie about what Obama said is propagated in the media. If not, this is a nonevent.

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jonny87:

if only virginia had full early voting!

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boomshak:

@bmrKY:

I am telling you my friend. This audio clip of Obama espousing Marxism could be the thing that blows down his house of cards.

I mean, hell, if even MSNBC is going to run it.

Now let's see if they run the whole thing or edit it to make Obama seem like a saint.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

This thing has really solidified.

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boomshak:

@SoloBJ:
@jonny87,

Is this suppose to be a new "October surprise?" Something to further the Repubs pathetic argument that Obama is a socialist?

Well he is. Isn't that clear to you from this tape?

____________________

maddiekat:

Outside of Drudge and Fox no one is even going to mentionit. It is a non story except for morons like boom****head

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jonny87:

@DTM

'If people thought Joe the Plumber was some kind of stumble for Barack Obama, a rediscovered interview from 2001 should dispel any doubts about Barack Obama’s redistributionism. Seven years ago, Obama told Chicago Public Radio that the Warren Court was too conservative and missed its opportunity to redistribute wealth on a much grander scale. In fact, Obama wanted them to break the Constitution and reorder American society far outside of what the founders intended'

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/27/smells-like-socialist-spirit/

im worried about this interpretation of his comments gaining traction.

____________________

boomshak:

@jonny87:

The MSM is going to have a hard time tamping this one down, and if it seems like they are carrying Obama's water on this, it could be even worse.

It is clear and undeniable what Obama is saying in this interview.

____________________

boomshak:

@maddiekat:

Outside of Drudge and Fox no one is even going to mentionit. It is a non story except for morons like boom****head

Obama declaring in favor of wealth redistribution is a non-story?

You are a communist. No wonder you support a communist.

____________________

Kjartan:

I am afraid of people like boomshak that they really think they know something about socialism or marxism. I know how it is to live in a socialistic system with the Stasi. Shut up if you do not know what you are talking about. Taxes are not specific for a socialistic system...read Marx and Engels carefully before you blame others as marxist. To call Obama socialist is complete BS and shows how ahistorical you are.

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DTM:

@boomshak

In answer to your question about building an economy from the bottom up, the primary source of consumable wealth for people in the lower and middle classes is labor--in other words, they work for the money they spend. To summarize a complex topic, over the last eight years real incomes have been dropping for people in the lower and middle classes, and Obama believes reversing this trend is crucial to the long term well-being of our economy. Note that this is also in the long term benefit of people whose primary source of wealth is the return on capital, because ultimately their return will be higher if the economy is growing well. In that sense, they also have an economic interest in things like rising real incomes.

As for the clip, it is uncontroversial because Obama simply said that the Warren Court was not that radical because it did not engage in redistributing wealth. It would have been controversial if Obama had said the Supreme Court should engage in redistributing wealth, but he didn't say that, and it is lie to claim otherwise.

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boomshak:

Can someone please explain to me how "we build the economy from the bottom up"?

How exactly is that accomplished because, for the life of me, I can't do the math.

Please, can an Obama supporter explain how that works. Thanks.

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Vercingetorix:

Chicken Licken meet jonny87. You two should get along together just fine.

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johncoz:

boom,

I remember Colin Powell's comments a week ago, pointing out that all taxation is inherently wealth redistribution. Is he a communist too?

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truebljb1:

This is catching fire. Now a comment every 2 seconds on you tube. That is unherd of.

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southern angler:

...the socialist are coming, the socialst are coming.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck

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DTM:

@jonny87

First, it is important to understand that post at hotair isn't an "interpretation" of what Obama said. It is actually just a lie about what Obama said.

So, what you are saying amounts to worrying that a lie about what Obama said will propagate. Again, recently such lies have not been propagating because the media has actually been calling them lies instead of spreading them. So, I don't think it is likely that this lie will spread, unless for some reason the media reverses course and decides to start spreading the lies.

Indeed, I think it is telling the hotair post began with a reference to the whole "Joe the Plumber"/socialism episode. That was also an attempt by interested parties to lie about what Obama said in an effort to paint him as a radical, exactly what you are worring will happen here. And yet there is no evidence that strategy actually worked to McCain's benefit, and indeed it may well have backfired.

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douglasfactors:

jonny87 is an obvious concern troll.

Don't feed him.

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jonny87:

is the media running with the story?

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southern angler:

OMG now foxnews has it

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DTM:

@boomshak

If you are asking about the economic mechanism, to summarize increasing the return to labor leads to increased consumption. Increased consumption leads to a faster-growing economy.

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jonny87:

...apart from fox?

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johncoz:

Don't make yourself sound like more of an idiot than you already have, Angler.

Of course Fix News "has it".

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mandalorianarmy:

Boom, I don't like to call names but our tax system is a progressive tax. Which means that those at the top pay more than those at the bottom because they can afford it.

When John McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts he said that people who make more should pay more for that very reason.

We don't have a flat tax. We have social programs like welfare. And both of the candidates voted for the most Socialist thing this country has ever done, bailing out the banks.

Do you also not understand that communism is a political system and socialism is an economic system? The two things are not interchangeable. I think the people of Scandinavia would take offense if you called them communists.

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alleyesontheprize:

"OMG now foxnews has it"

Wonder how much time they'll spend covering the market plunging another several hundred points today.

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alleyesontheprize:

"OMG now foxnews has it"

Yeah because they were SO successful pushing the Bill Ayers story as well - lol.

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truebljb1:

It is now on POLITICO. This is catching on....

____________________

DTM:

To monitor which stories are breaking into the public consciousness, I like to go to a place like Yahoo! News and see which stories are "most viewed".

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jamesugw:

truebljb1:
It is now on POLITICO. This is catching on....


Far be it from me to interrupt the idiot-fest, but I've just seen that article on Politico before coming on here, and it's pretty scathing and dismissive of this as a G.O.P tactic. So that's good for you in what way exactly?

____________________

jonny87:

outlier from daily kos? 44-49

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alleyesontheprize:

This story is on fire!!! Too bad for McCain.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081027/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

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jonny87:

new early turnout numbers from NC

Relative AA and 18-29 turnout increasing a little.

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DTM:

@jonny87

The MOE for the daily sample in the R2K poll is 5%, so a 49-44 daily sample is not in fact an outlier relative to the 51-40 average of yesterday.

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Viperlord:

The wingnuts are out in force I see.

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jonny87:

it must be my inner concern troll coming out

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wotan:

Ummmm, boomshak (and others):

The graduated income tax redistributes wealth. We have had the system for almost a century. McCain has spent 26 years in the Congress and hasn't figured that out? C'mon, has not that dumb, just that cynical.

____________________

boomshak:

@alleyesontheprize

Futures rallying right now.

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truebljb1:

RAS 51-46...CERTAIN VOTE down from 48-39 to 46-41. McCain had to poll 9 points better Sunday than Thursday. I here dems on here saying it is because McCain polls better on the weekend. That is untrue for a poll weithted by party. They call until the reach the right number of dems and repubs. 3 for 3 on trackers today...Man I hope Gallup tightens.

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Trosen:

haha.. what a joke. The Ayers thing had more legs. A speech in 2001 about a Supreme Court decision "not being that radical" is the magic bullet? Please.. more and more red meat for the base. More McCain votes in TN, KS, UT and NE. Great.

MY bold prediction: When this thing fails to get legs, next they'll dig up Rezko. When that falls flat, they'll bring out the defibrillator on Jeremiah Wright.

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Trosen:

Yea boom.. Dow down 312 by 9:24 am. Kickin ass.

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alleyesontheprize:

3 for 3 on polls - Hillarious! +2 for Obama nationally is an electoral blowout. Obama holding 50+ on RAS is GREAT news for the Dems.

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Obama008:

How many of you pay taxes here?

How many are in the bracket over 250,000?

Im in the top bracket making 250,000+.

Im voting for Obama, I will make more money under his tax plan, even when counting the new taxes he will be putting on me(semi new). His ideas of building from the bottom up is a great idea. It worked in the 1930s and will work today.

by the way FDR raised taxes on the rich in 1934. Obama isnt going to rise taxes he is going to let the bush tax cuts go away for the top brackets, even if he isnt elected this will happen.

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Trosen:

Ras +50 for Obama = death. No way out. Talk to me when Obama is down to 48 or so. (and crucial state polls corroborate the "comeback").

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Obama008:

If it wasnt a good idea why would Warren Buffet, and Bill Gates be supporting Obama. These guys know how to make money. They want Obama for a good reason.

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MichaelJason:

AdamSC,

The EV split will not be that close. Obama will win well over 300 EV. Maybe not a landslide but I predict between 306 and 375 EV's for Obama.

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truebljb1:

McCain brings up the audio tape. This COULD change things. Obama support is VERY soft. He better be above 50 going into next Tuesday. Also, you can call me what you want. I realize McCain is down, but I am just hopeful of a comeback and atleast a tight race. If I don't like the outcome the great thing about this country is we get to do it all again in 4 years.

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FromSarkoToObama:

In France the majority are supporting Obama.
We are a socialist country, that means here people with less revenue pay less taxes.
We prefer such model, we have less poverty, may be the wealthy have less money in their pockets, but everybody can go to college, and everybody can see a doctor without being ruined. It’s not a problem to pay taxe.

____________________

George Will yesterday on "This Week" pointed out that most of what the federal government does is redistribution of wealth. "Ninety-five percent of what the government does is redistribute wealth. It operates on the principle of concentrated benefits and dispersed costs. Case in point: we have sugar subsidies. Costs the American people billions of dollars but they don't notice it it's in such small increments. But the few sugar growers get very rich out of this. Now we have socialism for the strong - that is the well-represented and organized in Washington like the sugar growers. But it's socialism none the less and it's not new."

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Mike In Maryland:

Indiana4Obama said...
"The Zogby state polls are suspsicious. Mccain leads Obama in Indianapolis? No way...The Indianapolis metro area will go BIG for Obama and it's one of his keys to winning Indiana."

I4O,

What I'd bet is that Zogby is polling outside Marion county (Hamilton, Hancock, Boone, Johnson especially) but in the Indy metro area, and calling it 'Indianapolis'.

It would be similar to saying you were polling South Bend, but doing all the polling in Kosciusko, Elkhart and LaGrange Counties (still in the South Bend metro area). St. Joe County went 50.9% for Bush in 2004, but Kosciusko went 78.1%, Elkhart went 70.0%, and LaGrange went 71.4% for Dumbya.

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MichaelJason:

truebljb1,

I respect everyone, and since you do not act like some ignorant people here like Boomshak, I appreciate your thoughtful insight. I think your candidate will lose, and pinning hopes on some audio tape from several years ago at this late stage won't matter. This election is about the economy and the Iraq War, and McCain loses on both counts.

I think if the GOP is smart in 2012, they will nominate Gov. Bobby Jindal.

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FromSarkoToObama:

Question :
Today
Obama 50, McCain 45

Yesterday
Obama 49, McCain 44

yesterday Zogby said that McShame was doing well the last day 49 / 46.
So why do we have Obama +5 in both polls?

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Nowukkers:

boom:
Please. What Obama said was not Marxist or Communist. He was commenting on the Warren Court's moderateness. He was not advocating a deviation from the Constitution in order to establish a collectivist society. This "reds under the bed" alarmism is not contributing to the social discourse. It's more the equivalent of "If you vote for this guy, the sky will fall." In case you hadn't noticed, the sky is already falling. Under your guy's watch. Obama has at least proffered solutions, and not indulged in scare-tactic robocalls - which I have received and they're frankly disturbing - because they're reflective of a rather sick and desperate mind.

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Viperlord:

Don't bother. Anyone who isn't part of the Far Right is a Communist according to boom.

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Trosen:

MJ.. sorry man, but you really think a dark-skinned guy with a foreign name is going to play well with the GOP "base?" I mean.. I would love it if that didn't matter in this country in respect to either major party.. but.. I mean come on. Right now that same party is hoping and praying for a "Bradley effect" to win THIS election.

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kc_in_MN:

@Obama008,

I make well over $250k. I'm a physician, and I am supporting Obama. Most of my physician friends in my age group (mid-30's) also support Obama - even couples whose combined incomes are >$1mill a year.

According to the Tax Policy Center, I would pay about $121 more in taxes under Obama. Under McCain, I would get a fantastic >$8,000 reduction in taxes, which would be nice. With that $8,000, I would not be hiring anyone to do anything for me and stimulating the economy - I'd keep it, save it for myself. With the federal deficits the way they are, healthcare crying out for reform, the unaffordability of higher education, I'm happy to contribute as I can afford to. I think we all benefit when people can have affordable healthcare and education. If I had to pay an additional $5,000 in taxes under Obama, I'd still support him over a ticket that includes anti-choice, anti-science, anti-environment Palin.

"Universal health care" already exists - it's called Medicare (though Obama isn't pushing universal health care at this point). Interestingly, the only time the health care outcomes are comparable to the rest of the industrialized countries is when comparing outcomes in the Medicare population. Health care indices in the non-Medicare population is dramatically below that of any other industrialized country.

It is funny to me how the Repubs always try to scare people with "government" in healthcare. Right now, it's health insurance companies - and believe me, they're not on the side of the patient. They are there to make money, and your healthcare needs take money away from them.

well, enough of my ranting, I'm going to go to the Obama campaign office to help out for several hours.

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cinnamonape:

OGLiberal...Interesting quote there from Adam Smith. Here's another from Teddy Roosevelt, quoting Lincoln:

"Part of our debt to him is because he forecast our present struggle and saw the way out. He said:

"I hold that while man exists it is his duty to improve not only his own condition, but to assist in ameliorating mankind."

And again:

"Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration."

If that remark was original with me, I should be even more strongly denounced as a Communist agitator than I shall be anyhow. It is Lincoln's. I am only quoting it; and that is one side; that is the side the capitalist should hear".

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kc_in_MN:

Correction to my above post - should be Universal health care already exists *for the elderly*

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Paul:

For those of you interested in Zogby polling in Indiana by region, this is what I have from his internals, from the last three polls:

October 27 (McCain 50.2, Obama 44.0)
Indianapolis McCain 55.1, Obama 40.1
North McCain 48.9, Obama 45.6
South McCain 47.3, Obama 45.2

October 21 (McCain 52.8, Obama 42.3)
Large City Obama 48.3, McCain 47.0
Small City McCain 59.6, Obama 36.8
Suburbs McCain 46.1, Obama 46.0
Rural McCain 52.7, Obama 42.8

October 16 (McCain 48.5, Obama 44.3)
Large City Obama 53.8, McCain 39.1
Small City McCain 50.8, Obama 46.0
Suburbs McCain 46.2, Obama 44.9
Rural McCain 58.7, Obama 31.1

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Ignore Zogby. He is just trying to get media coverage for himself.

Posted on October 27, 2008 5:40 AM


HOW TYPICAL OF YOU LIBERALS!

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jsh1120:

Frankly, what I find most difficult to accept in Zogby's results is the underlying model of opinion formation upon which such results must be based.

The wide swings in support his polls claim suggest that there is a relatively large segment of the population that is both either undecided or weakly supporting a candidate and that is heavily invested in consuming each and every bit of campaign news.

If there is a single obvious generalization from many years of public opinion research it is that those most susceptible to changing their minds late in a campaign are, in fact, the least informed, least attentive portions of the electorate. And while small shifts from a candidate to "undecided" late in a campaign are not unheard of, especially among late deciders and weak supporters, the Zogby results suggest a pattern that is not only not found by anyone else but have never been found by anyone else.

I hesitate to accuse Zogby of simply falsifying results purely to gain attention, but his results conform more closely to that interpretation than to any reasonable model of opinion formation.

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