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US: Obama 50, McCain 46 (ABCPost-9/27-29)


ABC News / Washington Post
9/19-23/08; 1,070 registered voters (+/-3%), 916 likely voters
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(ABC story, results ; Post story, results)

National
Likely Voters:
Obama 50, McCain 46
(9/19-23: Obama 52, McCain 43)

Registered Voters:
Obama 49, McCain 45
(9/19-23: Obama 52, McCain 42)

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Obama will win by a landslide.

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Jeff:

13-point swing to McCain among white women (from Obama +2 to McCain +11) in one week is kinda hard to swallow....

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VivalaRevolucion:

@ fail to Boom
The landslide will take him and Biden under --

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carl29:

I think that this poll maybe, just maybe, will sound much "credible" for some McCain/Obama-hater people.

Remember how pro-obama/democratic the past ABC/WaPo sample was? Well, last week's poll had 46% Democrat, 28% Republican, 24% Independent...a 18% advantage for the Democrats/Obama.

Now, this poll has 36% Democrats, 29% Republican, 29% Independent...a 7% advantage for the Democrats/Obama.

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BOOMFAIL:

@ VivalaRevolucion
Keep dreaming, and drinking the koolaid! Can't wait to see Palin open her mouth again! You just can't make this stuff up, ya know der hey.

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carl29:

Obama lost 10% party ID advantage between this poll and the previous. Last week's poll had 18% party advantage for the Democrats/Obama. This poll has 7% advantage for the Democrats/Obama, which I found more reasonable than the 18% advantage in the previous poll.

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Gary Kilbride:

Both of those numbers among white women are hard to accept. McCain should lead narrowly among that group, parallel to a 4-6 point Obama national edge.

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kerrchdavis:

what a joke! no wonder! There was no swing just a change in weighting. I do agree that 7% seems much more realistic but this confirms that the change in poll numbers is not because of any momentum on McCains part.

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VivalaRevolucion:

@ fail to boom ( or bloom)
Better than hitting grandpa's medicine cabinet my friend .. but enjoy !
I am sure you will enjoy the gaffes that come out from biden's mouth ... it will be a funny sight ... Obama/Biden will sink like the Titanic -- may be faster then you think ..

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kerrchdavis:

@vivala

pfft, please. Your candidate is a joke. Your vp can't even do a simple interview without screwing up. Shes had 4 tries and failed every time.

Pathetic.

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carl29:

All ABC/WAPO did was to adjust their party ID and demographics. From an 18% party ID advantage for the Democrats, now it is 7%, a 11% loss for the Dems. They put more whites than the prvious poll, before 74% whites, now 79% whites. They put more married people from the previous poll, before 60%, now 64%.

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RussTC3:

While the result's are lower than the last ABC poll, it's still within the sampling error and Obama is still at 50%.

Also, it's not like +4 is a bad result. lol A 4% difference on election day would result in a 5M+ win for Obama over McCain (if voting levels are the same as they were in 2004).

Hard to spin any of that as bad news for Obama. He's in great shape right now.

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VivalaRevolucion:

@ Kerchdavis
I cannot say that your comment is not any smarter

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KipTin:

This is a larger sample then last weeks ABC poll (780 LV). As I said last week, not an outlier regarding sampling error.

Looks like ABC poll is truly random with political ID falling where it will. Now are these numbers for registered voters or likely voters?

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carl29:

Among LIKELY voters:

Among LIKELY VOTERS

Obama 50%, McCain 46

Among REGISTERED voters

Obama 49%, McCain 45%

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1magine:

Seriously are Republican trolls down to arguing by how much BO will win by? No he will only win by 20 EV - No he will only win by 4 - No he can only win by 16 EV.

Instead of arguing about this - since things seem like they're almost wrapped up - let's try to find some common ground to help our next President have a common mandate.

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boomshak:

HERE'S WHAT YOU GUYS DON'T GET:

Everything, and I mean Everything over the last 2 weeks has gone Obama's way:

1. Positively drooling MSM coverage.
2. Endless MSM attacks on McCain/Palin.
3. Palin giving some pretty sorry interviews.
4. The financial crisis.
5. Obama "supposedly" winning the debate hands-down according to the MSM talking heads.
6. McCain's campaign suspension thing.

I mean, every single thing he could dream of. And THIS +4, is the best he can do in a poll he lead by 9 last week?

Guys, I don't care how you spin it, this DOESN'T look good for Obama.

You better pray Palin blows the debate hardcore. Your MSM has reduced expectations for her to drooling moron levels. If she kills in the debate and the economy looks better, Obama could be in some trouble.

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carl29:

boomshak,

"And THIS +4, is the best he can do in a poll he lead by 9 last week?"

Do you remember last week's sample? Do you remember your outrage with the 18% party ID advantage for the Democrats/Obama?

Well, this poll gives 7% party ID to the democrats. Now it doesn't look that you are into checking for party ID gaps?


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boomshak:

Ok moonbats, admit it. You really didn't expect it to be this close here did you?

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boomshak:

@carl29:

I don't understand your point? A 7 point gap is a bit high but reasonable. This poll is accurate. This race is waaaaay closer than it should be.

BTW, it wasn't an 18 point gap, it was 16 and yes, that was a joke.

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carl29:

boomshak last week:

"OK, I see, the Post has a better pdf than ABCNews does.

Well, this cinches it and explains the poll.

Democrats: 54%
Republicans: 38%

a FRIGGIN 16 POINT ADVANTAGE TO DEMOCRATS IN THE POLL! Are you kidding me?

How can they even release something like this?"

Do you agree with today's poll party ID?

Democrats 50%

Republicans 43%


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carl29:

Don't get all worked up man. My point in highligting the party ID, just as you did last week, is to clarify that comparing the vote swing from one week to the other is not accurate. Obama lost 10% advantage in party ID from one week to the other, and still holds a 5% advantage over McCain. This sample is by no means Obama-friendly and still the guy is at 50%.

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zotz:

"Ok moonbats, admit it."

For pity's sake let's stop the namecalling!
Can't we all just get along?

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boomshak:

@carl29:

But you have to remember, when this ABC Poll was taken last week, everyone else had Obama ahead by small single digits.

Then, Gallup has polled Obama ahead (my best guess) by around +11 at leats on day this last week. Now this shows +4.

So it is clear. Obama peaked and has fallen off badly. Much of this falloff taking place as the economy worsened which seemed like it would help, not hurt him.

Perhaps Americans really do "blame" republicans for the bailout failuer and thank them for it?

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boomshak:

@zotz:

I'm sorry, you're not a moonbat?

lol.

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carl29:

I don't understand why you were all worked up with the party ID last week, but this time you are avoiding the subject. If party ID was important for you last week, it has to be important for you this week as well.

If you pay attention this poll is at the right party ID, compared to Rasmussen who shares that information, and shows Obama and McCain alsmost at the same level of support.

Rasmussen has a 6% ID gap:
Obama 51%, McCain 45%

This ABC/WaPo poll has a 7% ID gap:
Obama 50%, McCain 46%

See that both polls are on the same page?

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Mike_in_CA:

you all are missing a major point:

This is ONE poll. ONE poll. You CANNOT draw conclusions from a single poll. Take the aggregate. You HAVE to take the aggregate.

boomshak is just trying to get you all riled up. Don't let him succeed. He knows damn well what he's doing. Obama could very well have an 8% lead in this poll for all we know. and last week it could have been 6%.

if you can't read polls and draw accurate conclusions, then don't post here.

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Mike_in_CA:

boomshak: Obama is NOT in a tailspin, and you absolutely cannot make that conclusion from this poll, and YOU KNOW IT. Stop being a douchebag. Seriously.

On 10/4/04 ABC had Bush +5, on 10/14/04 it had Bush +0. Was Bush in a tailspin? He won by 3.

Just a simple quick example I could find to illustrate the point that you are making hay of nothing to get everyone riled up. And you know it. You KNOW Obama is not in a tailspin. Or maybe you are living in an alternate reality.

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carl29:

I like consistency. If you cannot stick to the principle, reasonable party ID for example, from one poll to the other, my advise is to change your nickname from one poll to the other. Every time someone brings up an issue when making an argument against a poll, but makes the opposite argument when in favor of a poll, I will call that person on it.

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marctx:

It was an interesting perspective that Scarborough(sp) said that Bush did so well in debates because the public was surprised he could speak in complete sentences.

I wonder if the bar is that low for Gov. Palin?

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carl29:

I honestly don't know. It is going to be interesting guys. The pundits think one way but the average American don't seem to care about how pundits think :-)

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John:

@Boomshak
I really do not understand your point, this poll was conducted at exactly the same time as the 4 trackers were. The previous ABC/WaPost was conducted between the 19-22, over the same period Gallup was about +3 to Obama. So Gallup has gone up by 3 over the period (roughly the same as the other polls), while this poll has gone down by 5.

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Pazienza:

Obama's bounce from the bad economic news will fade over the next week after some sort of bill passes. Obama has peaked and the race always tightens as we get closer to the election. McCain will finish strong with the momentum. The tortoise beats the hare in fairy tales and in this presidential election.

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carl29:

All this poll did was to adjust their party ID. Obviously people at ABC/WaPo were a little embarassed with the 18% party ID gap, when none other pollster was showing such disparity. Now they brought their numbers at more or less the same level of Rasmussen for example.

Surprised that Rasmussen and ABC/WaPo are showing almost the same level of support for each candidate, now that they have the same party ID gap? I am not.

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carl29:

Pazienza,

That may happen or it may not happen. If you predict the future, please tell me the numbers for tomorrow's Florida lotto :-)

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marctx:

Holy moly, did anyone see that clip of the Ferraro Bush debate?

That was a great line that she said don't patronize me and lecture me on foreign policy...practically calling him a sexist. Could Gov. Palin use that line on Biden?

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kerrchdavis:

@john

boomshak doesnt really have "points," he just spews biased right wing talking points all day and spins everything he can find.

Think about it. The BEST poll for mcCain nationally shows him down 4 points and he's acting like he just won the lottery.

mcCain is down about 6 nationally right now. Everyone knows it. Everyone also knows that Obama has been polling very well lately in the state polls and if that Virgina +6 number and Florida +3 is remotely correct, McCain has a problem even worse than his temper.

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macsuk:

This site has gone to the dogs..Why havent they posted the InAvd Poll for Ohio and Virginia. Ohio O 47 M45 / Virginia O 51 M 45

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Outsider:

Ohio (InAdv/PollPosition) Obama +2
Virginia (InAdv/PollPosition) Obama +6

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/

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IndependentThinker:

@Pazienza

" bla bla .... McCain will finish strong with the momentum bla bla ..."
Which planet do you live on?
Do you really believe in what you just stated ?. You Republicans on this blog are grasping at straws, it's not surprising you voted for Bush twice and I am pretty sure you would again if he were running for a third term
Whatever you think I am pleased it will be all over in 35 days

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Ulysses:

These posts are beginning to sound like they're from the Twilight Zone. Seriously. The idea that any poll that shows Obama ahead is either flawed or indicative of the beginning of a tailspin is so bizarre as to seem mentally unbalanced. Likewise, the Dems who are already dancing on McCain's supposed grave are celebrating way way way too early. This one is in for at least two major fluctuations in polls. And it still could go either way.

So sober up.

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Ryan in MO:

apparently the folks running this site don't read the comments, because I've yet to see anyone answer anyone's questions about the polling submissions (or lack therof)

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marctx:

You guys might be surprised. If that witchcraft prayer works, Gov. Palin might win this debate and McCain will gain like 3 points...lol.

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thoughtful:

I don't include the battleground poll as it is currently overhauling their bad demographics.

I was wrong about any of the 4 trackers hitting 53% Obama today.

I do expect an outside poss of that happening with R2K tomorrow. Ras getting to 52%.

Today we are at a 7 point average. We are traversing to an 8 point margin on Thursday.

The VEEP debate is irrelevant, we are electing a President.

I don't see this election tightening at all. Undecideds are breaking at better than 5 to 2 for Obama.

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thirdparty:

@boomshak: you've already admitted that Gallup did not give Obama +11 on Saturday.

/blogs/us_obama_50_mccain_45_rasmusse.html#comment-60698

So stop insisting that it did.

------

Furthermore, given that you've been lambasting ABC/WashPost for the last week, it's amusing to see you now clinging to it like it's the messiah you've been waiting for. If you actually had a shred of common sense, you would dismiss this poll just like you dismissed the previous ABC/WashPost poll that had Obama +9.

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ncc81701:

@ John
"I really do not understand your point, this poll was conducted at exactly the same time as the 4 trackers were. The previous ABC/WaPost was conducted between the 19-22, over the same period Gallup was about +3 to Obama. So Gallup has gone up by 3 over the period (roughly the same as the other polls), while this poll has gone down by 5."

This because boomshak is the McCain campaign equivalent of Baghdad Bob.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Could Gov. Palin use that line on Biden?"

No. She has shown she doesn't know what she is talking about. McCain practically had to hold her hand in the latest interview, so that won't fly.

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Basil:

Obama Tsunami! Aieeeee!

It's nice when a low-end poll shows O+4. But there's always tomorrow, eh boomie?

Obama's circumspection and relative coolness seems more appropriate (presidential) than McCain's theatrical rushing to take the lead in all directions at once (which adds up to leading in no direction at all).

However the economy pans out, we've seen yet another unconvincing performance from the careering oldster.

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miatch:

@ Boom,

Hey man, what's your thoughts on intrade today? I assume your betting the house on McCain, now when you can make a killing, right?

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nick-socal:

Did you guys see the latest bailout proposal that will be voted on in the Senate tomorrow (before the House can vote on it)? It's absurd! It includes more tax cuts, making Bush's tax cuts permanent, and includes some provisions of deregulation! How extremely absurd.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/financial_meltdown

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marctx:

thoughtful:

Traveling to the states this week? How's the weather in Afganistan, UK, and France this week?

thoughtful:

"I don't include the battleground poll as it is currently overhauling their bad demographics.

I was wrong about any of the 4 trackers hitting 53% Obama today."

"I was wrong". Finally, you being wrong is something you said that makes sense.

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I'm gettin' that tingly feeling up my leg again and it isn't good. Obama, my main man, is slipping in the polls and there's no sense denying it.

This one, ABC/Post, shows a change in the sample so that doesn't worry me quite so much. But Gallup slipped 2 today, Ras. 1.

I could go over to Kos and feel better but that drug is wearing thin.

Is BO going to B-low this thing?

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AlanSnipes:

Everybody calm down. There is a long way to go. However, if the election were held today. Obama would certainly win. For McCain, to win, the basic dynamic of this election would need to change.
Most Republicans, after all are Republicans becuase they believe in things that are factually inaccurate. However, many americans in the past have not voted on facts, but allowed Republicans to play the culture wars against blacks, gays, etc. This year, I don't believe that strategy will work although there are many Americans who vote that way.
For the Obama campaign, I would like to see them win Florida or Ohio, that would guarantee a win. He can win without one of those states, but it would be awfully close electorally. I would feel better about Virginia, Colorado, and North Carolina if they did not have such a long history of voting Republican for president. I think Colorado and Virginia can change this year, I just don't want to have to count on them.

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MNLatteLiberal:

once again and oddly enough I find myself agreeing with kerrchdavis and carl29, and with boomshack - not so much.

boom, I want to steer you a bit off-topic. now, i have already proposed this to you last week, but every time we are about to have a breakthrough, you run off somewhere, somewhere red.

this is about the economy, stupid. no, i am not calling you stupid, i am just typing fast. faster than i think. so, in any case, since you believe the financial markets will rebound and the economy will improve, i offer you some papers (stocks, bonds, etc.) at today's low prices.

but wait, that is not all! you also get these lovely ginzu knives....no, actually, you don't get jack. i am just wondering, and tell me honestly, please, do you think the economy will improve before Nov 4th? do you think the economy will be sufficiently better as not to be either on the news headlines daily or in the forefront of Americans' thoughts and fears? i am curious. lemme know.

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marctx:

How's Obama polling in France thoughtful:?

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marctx:

MNLatteLiberal:

Did you ask your wife if it was funny that John Stewart said she was a homafradite?

John Stewarts joke: "Whats the difference between a flower and a hockey mom, one has both male and female reproductive parts and the other is a flower"

You said your wife was a hockey mom.

You sound like Dukakis?

In Texas we would defend our wives.

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slinky:

I think the bar is so low for Palin that she has essentially already won the debate.

Biden will be even if he doesn't make a gaffe. (Fat chance).

So, I expect some Obama attrition.

But, then when Frontline airs on October 14, I expect significant McCain attrition; most of the Obama problems will have been discounted.

And, in response to the just announce Billy Joel/Bruce Springsteen concert on October 16, I expect some bounce.

So, I would say, it will be very interesting, and I very much doubt that McCain will overtake, but, never say never.

In any case, I believe that McCain/Palin if elected, will rival GWB/cheney for worst government of US ever. So, if they actually do in, to quote someone we know... "... this sucker is going down...".

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Evolve:

Tax cuts and more deregulation will eventually cause more of the problems which began this mess. *sigh. The lack of responsibility by Repubs, Dems, Wallstreet and mainstreet is staggering.

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Ryan in MO:

35 days, that's plenty of time for everyone to get raises, prices to drop, college to become affordable, health care to become so cheap everyone can get it since they will have the big raises and prices will drop so much. Everyone will have profits, banks will set fair guidelines for everyone, debts will be forgiven, credit scoring/reporting system will be re-vamped and previous records wiped. It'll be a fresh start for everyone. Everyone that wants a job will have a job, and the fathers will be able to work and let the mothers stay at home with the babies, and everyone will get by just fine. Crime will end, abortions will be unnecessary since there will be no rape or incest, money wouldn't be a problem, and the health technology, available to everyone can fix any problems with the fetus. Nobody will be depressed, drug and alcohol use will all be responsible and under control. All nations of the world will reach out to one another on their own and promote unity and equality with one another. Almost 7 billion people will see themselves being a part of one world. McCain will then be elected president. All in 35 days. Then McCain will start wars all over because people people use to hate us. Yep. There's nothing to talk about anymore because everything is perfect for everyone.

Of course, if for some remote and far-fetched the reason, the above doesn't happen in the next 35 days, Obama will be elected president, and will be the best chance for working toward the above goals.

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Evolve:

I don't believe the bar is set so low for Palin that America will turn away from her apparent lack of knowledge. Biden is prone to misspeaking, but how bad can he be when compared to President Bush- "I believe humans and fish can coexist peacefully." I could go on with Bushisms, but why when we all know how he trips over words constantly. Those who want to like Palin, will. Those who don't want to like her, won't. Those in the middle will mostly see through her boot camp training to see that before being picked as VP she hadn't given most of these issues much thought.

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zotz:

nick-socal-
I checked out your link and there is nothing bad in those tax changes except they are not covered by spending cuts. The Alternative Minimum Tax can hurt middle class taxpayers if Congress doesn't provide tax relief. It is not related to Bush's tax cuts. The other tax cuts are specifically targeted to natural disaster relief and renewable energy incentives. It doesn't make permanent the Bush tax cuts.
So just relax.

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marctx:

fair debate????????????????

VP debate moderator releasing pro-Obama book...

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=76645

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Evolve:

The book will give Repubs a reason to yell bias. It's might be their best chance at salvaging the debate. Some people may find Palin likable, but if she spews talking points all night without a grasp of what she's talking about it will show through.

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douglasfactors:

MaxMBJ:

I'm gettin' that tingly feeling up my leg again and it isn't good. Obama, my main man, is slipping in the polls and there's no sense denying it.

This one, ABC/Post, shows a change in the sample so that doesn't worry me quite so much. But Gallup slipped 2 today, Ras. 1.
Not so. Obama gained a point in today's Rasmussen. His lead also increased by a point in both Hotline and R2K.
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Nick08:

The ABC/WP poll dropped 9 points off the party ID for Dems so how can anyone be surprised of the 5 point drop in this poll? This isnt any Mccain surge or Obama loss of any kind. Obama was never up by 9 points. The ABC/WP pollsters should be embarrassed.

I might be in the minority here but I think the headlines after thursdays debate from pundits will be that Palin "held her own" against Biden. I think repubs will spin in gleeming fashion that she was able to go toe to toe with the experienced senator from Delaware. I think all of the scrutiny has lowered expectations for her so much that Biden is basically handcuffed. She will give a 90 minute assault on Obama and Biden and Biden wont be able to land any big counterpunches cos it will seem like hes being harsh on her.

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MNLatteLiberal:

marctx, my wife thought it was funny. it's called a sense of humor. and that's some long ass memory you have - are you saving my clippings now? i feel honored. and yet, at the same time, i wonder if the association in your mind of rape and dismemberment (?) in the Dukakis question with John Stewart's joke is somehow indicative of a larger subcutaneous misogynistic issue. i wonder.

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NW Patrick:

hehe I do love how they changed the party ID gap. To be honest though folks as a partisan DEM I'd rather see a 7% party ID and 4% lead than up 9 with a rather high party ID. Gives me even a better send that McCain is in trouble. I was just lookinga t state polls over the past 10 days and the swing to blue is amazing. Let's hope for a continuation! This poll changes nothing, and I'm not just saying that. 4% on election day is a landslide. All of the trackers are showing 5 and 6 or more. I'm good.

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Nick08:

The week before election day I think Mccain will whittle Obama's lead down to a point or two. And some polls will have him actually up. When there isnt any major economic news or event, that has always been when Mccain has gained. Because the Mccain camp can control the news cycle and put out anything they want for the MSM to chew on. After the debates they will have a good 2 week period, barring any major news, to throw the kitchen sink again or manifest some fake controversy, or pounce on a Obama gaffe, or something superficial and I feel the Mccain campaign will close very strong.

I still think the majority of undecideds will break for Mccain the last week of the campaign. Its important for Obama to be out ahead in the early voting to balance that out.

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NW Patrick:

OH GOD. They're already questioning the moderator. She's awesome. Gwen has a great reputation. If you VP candidate Palin can't answer a simple question, don't blame the moderator. boomshak you are really ridiculous. 18% party ID to 7? Serious..who cares. Move on. It's a slight decrease then for Obama. 4% lead on election day is a landslide. Can't wait to see trackers by weeks end!

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Evolve:

The decision by the Ohio Supreme Court will help Obama. If you like Obama or not, you have to admit that he has a very well organized grassroots operation.

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marctx:

MNLatteLiberal/Dukakis:

so was the answer yes or no on the issue if she has male parts?? ...or you gonna be a man and stand up for her??

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Evolve:

Gwen Ifill is a very well respected journalist. The only problem I see is the Repubs pointing to the book as evidence that Palin had the deck stacked against her when she doesn't do well. If it wasn't the book, they would find some other reason why she was treated unfairly. I'm more than a little tired of the "I didn't vote for the bill because Pelosi hurt my feelings" excuses.

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Pat:

I was just listening to the rest of CBS/Palin interview that was aired tonight. OMG, she is one of the most stupid people I have ever seen or met. Even Jessica Simpson sounds more intelligent than Palin. Can you imagine her as President????? She makes Bush look good.

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MNLatteLiberal:

marctx, are you waiting for me to tell you to go **** yourself or some such emotional vernacular? cause that ain't gonna happen. that's one.

two, you are mixing topics and appear to be utterly incapable of following your own line of reason. here is what you asked:

"Did you ask your wife if it was funny that John Stewart said she was a homafradite?"

and that question i answered. then i asked you a couple of questions which remain unrequited (i am peppering this with a little emotion, just for your benefit). so i remain waiting.

marc?tx? something?

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bmrKY:

"marctx:
How's Obama polling in France?"

I'm not sure.

How's McCain polling in Colorado... or Virginia... or Nevada... or North Carolina... or Florida... or Ohio... or Missouri... or Indiana... or America?

All those places are experiencing a 20 point "Bradley Effect", right? Some bombshell revelation that Barack had sex with a sheep while allowing Rev. Wright to convert all of his supporters into Islamic Extremists, right? It will be discovered that Rick Davis has been Obama's campaign manager all this time and not McCain's, right? McCain's going to suspend his campaign so he can have Rove drop him right outside of OBL's cave and not leave until democratic and republican 'queda members agree on a plan to turn over OBL (only to show up and debate Barack 20 minutes later), while claiming it was for the good of the people and not for political gain, right?

That's what I thought.

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Tom:

First, I notice the national map has turned dark blue. Wasn't it light pink about two weeks ago? Second, this poll seems like it is a much better one than the one a week ago. The R/D/I numbers seem better than a week ago. Granted that the daily trackers seem to have it a little further apart, but this one doesn't seem out of line. We should see some more national polls in the next couple of days.

I heard an interesting observation from a conservative commentator the other day that to compare Sarah Palin to Dan Quayle was an insult - to Dan Quayle.

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richardkreed:

The polling news is not now all one way or all the other way. Last week, Obama almost had this thing put away, and now it is getting closer. Ex: "McCain takes 21% lead in Arizona." Ex: "Colorado now a toss up" (1 point Obama lead). Obama had Colorado more or less in the bag for weeks until now.

Where McCain should be worried right now is Virginia and North Carolina; and also Ohio, where they are already voting.

It is obvious that Obama is still leading nationwide, but that lead has shrunk a bit, at a time when Obama should have put it away for good because of the financial crisis.

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Basil:

Ifill's sympathy for Obama might be a good reason to listen for unfairly partisan questions during the debate, but is this the first time anybody noticed she's a PBS talk show moderator? Her bias, such as it is, would be something she herself would presumably try to factor out of her questions. Is Jim Lehrer a Republican?

One instance of alleged bias involved Ifill telling Dick Cheney he could only have thirty seconds to answer a question. Presumably, he later referred to her as another "major-league a-hole" for standing up to him.

Palin probably has a litany of sound bites ready for Biden, who is a target-rich opponent, after all. But all that's necessary for Palin to lose points is for her to have to answer any new question at all. It doesn't matter what the question is. If the answer won't fit on a card, Sarah will not be able to answer it coherently. You can't learn how to do that in a month.

Katie Couric has proven beyond all doubt that Palin is severely verbally challenged. Palin's pathetic answer to the question "What magazines do you read?" was a painful reminder of Dubya's illiteracy. I don't care if she reads them or not, her answer was a weak, schoolgirl lie to a teacher.

Biden can run on and say inappropriate things, but he's at least speaking English, and he's had to ask and answer a lot of questions over the years.

____________________

vmval1:

This Poll is COMPLETELY irrelevant. It was taken between the 19 and 23rd of August - before the debate - before Obama's latest surge and before the vote blew up.

Between the 19th and 23 of Aug, Gallup had the margin at:
O+4
O+4
O+3
O+3


Between the 19th and 23 of Aug, Rasmussen had the margin at:

O+1
O+1
O+1
Even

So - this poll makes complete sense - but is useless now.

____________________

vmval1:

My bad - poll was dated wrongly in the header.

____________________

Rames1980:

Have a look at the color in the "National trend" indicator - Strong Obama.

____________________

macsuk:

I just read several post stating that it seems as if McCain is now closing the race up a bit. Really, what leads you to say that. Perhaps it just seems that way because he went 24 hours without making a total fool out of himself, or because ABC tryed to correct a faulty poll by releasing another faulty one.. I think the National poll to keep an eye on is the Battleground Tracking Poll. This Poll only gives the Dems a 2 point party ID advantage and until yesterday showed McCain ahead. If Obama ever consistantly shows a 2-4 point lead in this poll the race is over for McCain. Not only is party ID very low for Democrats in the Battleground Poll, it was also the most accurate polster 3 out of the past 4 Presidential elections. But if you want to believe anytime McCain doesnt make a fool out of himself it is a good day for him then go right ahead. PS, Be sure to watch CBS News tonight and the Palin interview. It is going to be entertaining to see that she is incapable of naming one single Supreme Court Case other then Roe Vs Wade.

____________________

boomshak:

JUST WHEN WE HAVE A SOLUTION, OUR GOVERNMENT COMMITS SUICIDE YET AGAIN:

"The Securities and Exchange Commission, in junction with the Financial Accounting Standards Board, issued guidelines under "fair value" accounting rules for financial firms trying to peg the value of hard-to-trade assets on their balance sheets.
But the SEC stopped short of issuing a moratorium on mark-to-market accounting requirements under FASB Statement 157, like it did by issuing a temporary short-sale ban on more than 700 financial stocks earlier this month.

"Mark-to-market is the messenger. We felt strongly the standard shouldn't be suspended," said Cindy Fornelli, executive director at the Center for Audit Quality, a public-policy advocate group."

Dumb, just dumb. This will hurt the markets today.

The basic Rule of Thumb of Government: "There is no lack of stupidity at the government level. No decision too idiotic, no position too partisan, no result too horrible.."

This could have taken enormous pressure off the markets with one rule change. Dumb.

____________________

boomshak:

vmval,

Ignore those dates on top of the page. This poll was taken after the debate as well as can be attested to by this question:

"22. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I have a question about the debate between
(Obama) and (McCain) Friday night. From what you’ve seen, heard or read about
it - who, in your opinion, won the debate?"

____________________

boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

I love blind partisans like you. It is so easy to defeat your teetering logic.

The POINT is that in just a few days, Obama has gone from a +10 (at least) day on Gallup to a +4 day here (and indications of other a +4 day on Gallup). That is a 6 point dropoff in a few days.

If Obama is the unstoppable machine you think he is, why did this happen?

____________________

boomshak:

IT BASICALLY COMES DOWN TO THURSDAY:

If Palin makes a bumbling fool of herself, Obama will wrap this up. If Biden makes a bumbling fool of himself, McCain will wrap this up. If they both look good, advantage Mccain as expectations have been set so long for Palin.

With the race this close, Thursday is now HUGE. You better pray Palin blows it because if she shines and Biden is a mess, Obama is in trouble.

____________________

boomshak:

@nick-socal:
Did you guys see the latest bailout proposal that will be voted on in the Senate tomorrow (before the House can vote on it)? It's absurd! It includes more tax cuts, making Bush's tax cuts permanent, and includes some provisions of deregulation! How extremely absurd.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/financial_meltdown

Lol, have you noticed how, despite being in the minority, Republicans just keep winning?

____________________

boomshak:

The inability of the SEC to pull the trigger on uspsending mark-to-market rules further displays why Cox should be fired as McCain recommended.

That man is an idiot.

____________________

vmval1:

What exactly are market to market rules?? Do they involve valuing assets at their correct price?


____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, do you honestly believe a VP debate will make a difference to the end result when there is no proof a VP pick has ever helped a candidate win an election that he might have otherwise lost in over 40 years?

____________________

vmval1:

Also - I'm hoping Obama wins, but I agree with Boom. I think Palin's been foxing this whole time (yes, I am serious...) and she will nail the debate on Thursday.

This will be really BAD for Obama, unless the Dow comes of another 700 points on that day...

I know this sounds insane, but regardless of how remote the state is, she must have some degree of smarts (street or otherwise) to get elected to high office (please don't quote me Bush as an example of a dumbass being voted into the highest office, he's not as dumb as he's made out to be - after all he managed to get voted in twice).

____________________

boomshak:

VP DEBATE MODERATOR RELEASING 'AGE OF OBAMA' BOOK ON INAUGURATION DAY:

No wait, this is a joke right? A hyper-partisan black woman who has actually written a book in praise of Obama set to be released on Inauguration day is the moderator of the VP debate?

OMFG, are you kidding me?

Not only is she a HUGE Obama supporter, the success of her book depends upon an Obama victory.

HOW did the Republicans ever agree to this hot mess?

I assume that the moderator of the next Presidential debate will be Rush Limbaugh then? This is no different.

Incredible.

____________________

vmval1:

I don't understand why Obama is up 30 on intrade. This is soo much closer than everyone is making it our to be.

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

It could go either way, who knows? It is clear though that Palin has been way over-handled by former Bush Consultants and has taken on the well known "Bush Defensive Crouch" instead of attacking.

We'll see if she can shed all that and get back to being herself.

THE MODERATOR:
I am STILL in shock about the Gwen Ifill as Moderator thing. I have seen and heard this woman before. She is a HYPER-partisan Democrat.

Is there some sort of unwritten rule that all the debates get to be moderated by democrats? How about Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly or Rush Limbaugh? Can you imagine the squawk that would be put up by the left?

The bigger question is, why do the Republicans always agree to it? Lord our party has become pussified under Bush.

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

"I don't understand why Obama is up 30 on intrade. This is soo much closer than everyone is making it our to be."

Intrade is a momentum thing. It's fun to watch but pretty close to meaningless. Rather than a predictor of events, it is a follower.

If you doubt me, look back at the Intrade history the day McCain chose his VP. It was nuts.

____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, you've got to be crazy to be comparing Gwen Ifill and Rush Limbaugh. The book she is coming up with is titled "The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama" and is no paean to Obama. She has done VP debates before and hosts shows and has never come across as a partisan.

"In THE BREAKTHROUGH, veteran journalist Gwen Ifill surveys the American political landscape, shedding new light on the impact of Barack Obama’s stunning presidential campaign and introducing the emerging young African American politicians forging a bold new path to political power.

Ifill argues that the Black political structure formed during the Civil Rights movement is giving way to a generation of men and women who are the direct beneficiaries of the struggles of the 1960s. She offers incisive, detailed profiles of such prominent leaders as Newark Mayor Cory Booker, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, and U.S. Congressman Artur Davis of Alabama, and also covers up-and-coming figures from across the nation. Drawing on interviews with power brokers like Senator Obama, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Vernon Jordan, the Reverend Jesse Jackson, and many others, as well as her own razor-sharp observations and analysis of such issues as generational conflict and the "black enough" conundrum, Ifill shows why this is a pivotal moment in American history.

THE BREAKTHROUGH is a remarkable look at contemporary politics and an essential foundation for understanding the future of American democracy."

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

"Boomshak, do you honestly believe a VP debate will make a difference to the end result when there is no proof a VP pick has ever helped a candidate win an election that he might have otherwise lost in over 40 years?"

With white women and PUMAS, yes, i do.

____________________

macsuk:

Boomshak

Check out the new state polls that just came out..Looks bad for Obama doesnt it.

____________________

vmval1:

@ Boomshak:

That's exactly why I think something is up. I'm not a fan of the repubs, but they are not dumb - Why would they have agreed to a debate with Ifill. Something simply doesn't feel right here.

____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, i just checked the intrade chart and the only time McCain had anything going in his favor was during the week of RNC and a few days after. There was no crazy activity as mentioned by you when SP was picked as VP :-)

____________________

vmval1:

Holy ****... Need to look at internals before I blow a gasket...

____________________

boomshak:

MORE ON GWEN IFILL'S "OBJECTIVITY":

During the Republican National Convention, the PBS ombudsman fielded numerous complaints about Ifill’s coverage of Sarah Palin’s speech. Wrote Brian Meyers of Granby, Ct.:

“I was appalled by Gwen Ifill’s commentary directly following Gov. Sarah Palin’s speech. Her attitude was dismissive and the look on her face was one of disgust. Clearly, she was agitated by what most critics view as a well-delivered speech. It is quite obvious that Ms. Ifill supports Obama as she struggled to say anything redemptive about Gov. Palin’s performance. I am disappointed in Ms. Ifill’s complete disregard for journalistic objectivity.”

Yup. Objective.

What Palin should do: Right at the start of the debate, Palin should say this "Gewn, I would like to congratulate you on yuour upcoming coming, pegged for release on Inauguration day. Can you tell everyone the title please?"

The title of Ifill’s book? “Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama.”

____________________

sunnymi:

The latest Quinnipiac surveys do not look good for McCain in OH, PA and FL....for the first time Obama gets over 50 in FL and and almost touches first in OH.

* Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
* Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
* Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218

____________________

boomshak:

sunnymi:

"Boomshak, i just checked the intrade chart and the only time McCain had anything going in his favor was during the week of RNC and a few days after. There was no crazy activity as mentioned by you when SP was picked as VP :-)"

Lol, no, I meant the crazy activity as far as the VP selection and who would be picked, not between Obama and McCain. Sorry I should have been more specific.

On the VP side it was NUTS. First Pawlenty, the Romney, the Palin...up and down between 0 and 100 all day.

____________________

sunnymi:


My bad....Obama actually crosses 50% threshold in all three states.

____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, I give credit to McCain's team for pulling a surprise regarding the VP selection, but that is where they peaked :-)

____________________

boomshak:

@Quinnipiac

Is a joke. Nobody takes thems seriously. Obama by 15 in PA and by 8 in FL and OH?

I am surprised they wouldn't be embarrassed to publish that.

Here's Rasmussen's latest numbers for the same states:

PA: +8
OH: -1
FL: Tied

Quinnipiac is a joke. Fail. Next.

____________________

boomshak:

Quinnipiac has Obama carrying Independents by 2:1. Hilarious.

____________________

vmval1:

Why is PA still yellow?

____________________

boomshak:

ABC/Post has McCain leading amongst Independents. Quinnipiac has Obama 2:1. I smell a turd-burger coooking at Quinnipiac.

____________________

sunnymi:


boomshak, you were against ABC/Post (last week) before you are for it (this week) :-)

Isn't it an apples to oranges comparision?
ABC/Post was a national poll and Quinnipiac is a state poll.

Even if you do not agree with the Quinnipiac numbers their trend is in the same direction....even the Rasmussen numbers quoted by you show the same trend towards Obama, don't they?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

boom, would you be a dahlink and scroll back up to last night where you didn't answer a couple of my - I will grant you - minor questions. I know, you've been busy refueling with fresh talking points from the machine, but still...

I thought we had something special going there...
Please get back to me.
(when you get a chance, of course, I realized how busy you are)

____________________

vmval1:

So ... I can't find the internals on the Quinnipiac. Am I being blind or have they not provided them?

I'm guessing this has a pretty heavy dem weighting. I'm optimistic and hopeful, but not THIS optimistic and hopeful.

____________________

s.b.:

Last weeks poll was an error. I wouldn't have published it if I were ABC news, and I certainly wouldn't have defended it if I were Gary Langer. 7% Party id spread is reasonable. I think it's less than that still but it's reasonable, 16% was not. Now if you put an accurate Party id weighting on this poll, and racial makeup, blacks are 12.5% of the population, you get a tie, which is probably where the race stands and has stood for quite some time, and probably will stand on election day, esentially tied.

It's all going to depend on who comes out to vote folks. GOTV is all that really mattters, and mostly only in a few states. This is why pollsters, including Gallupneed to stop using RV and start using LV models, after October second in 2004 not one poll was released as RV. Only two from the second hald of Sept were released. Pollsters need to start screening for LV.

____________________

s.b.:

Gwen fell down a flight of stairs Monday night and broke her ankle. If she is there, she will be on serious drugs for pain and recovering from a trauma and probably have a whopping headache. She should stay home because that is not any condition in which to moderate a Vice Presidential debate.

____________________

Viperlord:

I see boom is still denying reality. Keep him around though, we'll have to have someone to mock on Nov. 4th.

____________________



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