Pollster.com

Obama/Hillary together in Orlando next week. If you think today's crowd in St. Louis was huge, wait untill next week.

what is this? According to Gallup's web site today's poll is:
Ov=bama: 50
McCain: 42
see http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

I repeat can some one look at the figures below and please tell me how under the RVs and Expanded LVs can Obama's suppport stay EXACTLY the same and McLiar gains 4%.

Obama RV 50% LV Expanded 50%
McLiar RV 42% LV Expanded 46%

It makes no sense!!

@Boomshack
"Ok,first of all, ignore the Registered Voters totals."

It would make more sense to ignore not only RV but also LV and focus on state-by-state polls and analyze the so-called McCain's trend

In the past 2 days:
Obama up in all Kerry states + IA
Obama is up VA (Republican state), NC(up but within the MOE so a toss up), NM, CO, NV, (ND is astonishingly a toss up), up in MO (though slightly), FL (which is necessary for a McCain)
IN (toss up), OH (slightly ahead), WV (slightly behind)
Do I miss one?
I know you jump on one of the Gallup poll showing Obama +2, I don't fault you for doing so because you don't have any other choice

FYI: Bush won by 2-3 the popular vote and barely won the EV, which is far different from what's is going on right now

my question is: Knowing you're not that stupid do you really think this Gallup poll mirrors those state polls?

If not, my other question is :
what McCain trend you're talking about sir?

I agree, this makes no sense. Go by the Gallup site: it obviously says Obama 50, McCain 42.

Helllllo??
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111229/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Lead.aspx

These numbers seem screwy for McCain:

42% of 2796 registered voters = 1174.32
47% of 2572 LV (traditional) = 1208.84

even if you try to account for rounding error you get:

42.4% of 2796 RV = 1185.504
46.5% of 2572 LV (traditional) = 1195.98

Assuming that the LVs are a subset of the RVs, the numbers just don't add up.

Can anyone explain what I'm missing here?

Does anyone has the complete results for Gallup since they changed to their "new" model? I am not sure, but I thought that the "Expanded LVs" was a larger number that the "Traditional LVs" (as it includes "new voters") ... today that number is smaller ... Hmmm ...

never mind...on the gallup site the two LV numbers are switched - they have the expanded as a smaller sample size than the traditional.

This poll would show that Obama has gained +2 in the RV support from before the debate and stayed steady in the LV traditional. He's declined in the LV Expanded...but that has shown wide fluctuations over the last few days. It's a wacky statistic.

@wisco_lib:

The sample number for the traditional and the expanded are incorrect in this site ... however, that still seems out of wack, as I mentioned in my previous post ...

The O+14 CBS News poll and the O+9 LA Times will come off RCP tomorrow or Monday, which will bring Obama's numbers down as well. Those polls were most likely outliers, though. Race is probably 5.5-6 points as of today.

What is more relevant here, is the fact that Obama's number IS NOT DROPPING. McCain's number is going up.

Right now, if only 1 out of every 5 undecideds vote for Obama and 4 out of 5 vote for McCain, Obama still wins.

This will come down to GOTV and whether the votes get counted.

WOW!

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/18/obama-rally-draws-100000-in-missouri/?mod=googlenews_wsj

Sarah Palin and here 10-20K crowds...eat your aerial-killed wolf heart out!

100,000 crowd for Obama in MO, but somehow the Gallup LV models say the ratio of likely voters tilt towards repubs. It's BS.

This race will continue to tighten, and the state-by-state polling will follow the national trend in the next week.

Obama has only lost 1 point in the expanded likely voter model since the debate and McCain has gained one point. The traditional likely voter model has stayed the same, while the registered voter model has gone up 1 point for Obama since the debate.

This still doesn't change the fact that McCain has to win all the toss-up states plus NM, CO, NH, FL, NC, and IA to win.

Tracking polls are weird. BUt, whatever. Obama still looks good in the state polls

Chicken and Eggs
An interesting article about polls and party id weighting.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/chickens-and-eggs.html

One thing I realized reading posts in this site last couple of weeks is, how marvelously democratizing experience this is!

In my personal and professional life, I have never encountered people who display their ignorance and bigotry in such a flamboyant manner.

In fact, most of us here rational and thinking people wouldn't give a time of day if we encountered some of these specimens in real life out there.

Yet, here on the cyber space, we are tenderly or ginerly engaging them.

Isn't Internet a marvelous tool for democracy??? (By the way, I am in the IT/Internet/telecom industry).

My own base instinct: sometime I do enjoy reading these crazy posts. It's like watching a freak show full of grotesque deformities. Guilty pleasure I would never admit to my close friends and family members out of fear that I would lose their esteem for me.

crazy crowd

early voting setup?

100,000 thousand at MO rally:

Very smart of Obama. Have the ground workers engage MO on the ground, get a good poll result (Ras O +6), then show up in the state. It is no wonder that he had a great crowd. They sensed that history was being made and wanted to be a part of it. What a great positive message that sends to the entire state. Those that were worried about Obama see and huge crowd of fellow Missourians excited about him can only help in swaying on the fence voters.

Come on Gallup, this three poll thing is silly, confusing and useless. Giving us three polls with Obama going up in one, another where McCain goes up and a third where they stay the same is completely pointless.

Maybe someone on here can make more sense of this than me. This is what I see, though:

RV LV(Exp) LV(Trad)
---------------------------------------
Oba 1398 1286 1109
McC 1174 1170* 1063

(*1170 comes from assuming McC is actually at 45.5% which rounds to 46% in order to make the numbers actually work).

So basically the LV Expanded includes essentially ALL of McCain's registered voters but leaves out a decent sized chunk of McCain's registered voters. If this is the case, then, barring any crazy external event, 46% would seem to be McCain's ceiling, would it not?

Yeah, Boom, they really over-counted that crowd!

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/18/obama-rally-draws-100000-in-missouri/?mod=googlenews_wsj

@wisco_lib:

Very good point

"Come on Gallup, this three poll thing is silly, confusing and useless. Giving us three polls with Obama going up in one, another where McCain goes up and a third where they stay the same is completely pointless."

Well, then again...they can say that...whatever happens...they "predicted it".

@sunnymi

Reading the article you mention it seems that Zogby weights make quit a lot of sense.

About Gallup, again I will look at the average of the next couple of days. Models need to be calibrated and they do oscillate (I work with statistical models too). So probably averaging their running averages is a wise thing.
Anyway I'll not sleeping well in the next days no matter what the polls say

Liz-

It's because they think that they can get away with it. It comes from the same place as road rage.

I've participated in forums where some troll comes in and makes an outlandish or offensive comment, and they get tracked down by various means by using various IP tracking tools and whatnot. I wouldn't know how to do something like that, but I suspect those tools will become more common in the coming years. If it helps put an end to large-scale internet trolling, I welcome it.

@wisco_lib:

That does sound a little strange. So 99.7% of McCain's registered voters fall into LV(Exp) while only 92% of Obama's do the same? This despite the huge enthusiasm gap between the two? I don't quite buy it.

Remember that the tracking poll is a 3 day avg and a good day for one could drop off as a good day for the other comes on. I like the way RK2000 gives the avg but also reveals the daily #s. It allows the viewer to see the cause and effect rather than the guess work that comes from their lack of transparency. But I guess the pollsters like to keep their biases and internal preferences close to the vest so they can continue to be relevant.

Folks! The state level results are the ones that matter. In those, Pitbull with Lipstick and her running mate are going down like Das Boot. Don't bother arguing with the GOP and conservative hypocrites and dung-fleas. Concentrate on rousing up your neighbors to vote for Obama/Biden and get involved in a get-out-the-vote effort.

@Boomshak and his oily allies,

And by the by, Intrade has Obama/Biden at 84%. Yeah, it's closing for Palin/McCain....... just like a cover over the coffin.

Gallup added Likely Voter models just recently. The Registered Voter model ALWAYS favors Democrats because so many more are registered than Republicans.

But not all registered voters vote...ergo likely voters. For example only 85.5% voted in 2000 as compared to 91.2% in 1968 and 90% in 1992. So that means anywhere from 10-15% registered voters do not vote.

The traditional likely voter model has served Gallup well, but they are trying a new model giving quite a bit of weight to those "likely voters" who have never voted before. And today that "expanded" likely voter model shows the race tightening to within 4 points (Obama 50/McCain 46) compared to yesterday at 6 points (Obama 51/McCain 45).

On October 14, the expanded likely voter model had Obama 53/McCain 43... a 10 point spread.

All the major newspapers are now coming out in support of Obama. The Miami Herald and Denver Post are particularly important as they are in key, swing states.

On another note, does anyone else realize the value in the prime time 30 minute spot Obama purchased a week before the election? He is going to MAKE CERTAIN that, on election day, democratic voter enthusiasm is at its peak. Forget about a disappointing turnout. This is going to be record shattering.

Intrade is for gamblers. Since when do wagers determine an election?

Newspaper editorial endorsements also do not determine elections.

@kiptin

Nobody is saying wagers or editorial endorsements DETERMINE elections. Maybe you should work on your ability to read and comprehend what people are writing.

Errrr, it's just that the trades have been right on, both with regard to the national and state votes in the last two elections. And.... they've been right on during the primaries. That's all. I thought you conservatives worshiped the act of putting your money where your slippery mouths are.

R2000 poll

NC Obama 46
Maccain 44

Kiptin,

You are correct about Newspaper endorsements. The Iconoclast endorsed Kerry and was proven wrong. Ah, but if we had only listened. :>)

And I could care less if the national trends have the Palin and her running mate getting a bit closer, since each day the bottom is falling out on you guys in Virginia, Missouri, Colorado,etc. So do I give a crap if there are a few more percentages going for them in California or New York or Texas or Tennessee? It's over, unless some political equivalent of an asteroid favorable to the Reps hits the country. So go pray. . . it's your only option.

The traditional likely voter model has served Gallup well, but they are trying a new model giving quite a bit of weight to those "likely voters" who have never voted before

You can throw that out the window this year. It's a whole different dynamic in this race, as record numbers of minorities and lower income people have registered. Obviously, they're not all going to vote, but even a marginal percentage of them is doom for McCain. Why do think the republicans are trying so desperately to purge the voter registration rolls? They know that newly registered voters will break big time for Obama.

That crowd in St.Loius makes you proud to be an American.
Had McCain not sold his soul to the devil (aka GOP)and stayed true to his inner self he actually might have had a shot in this election.
But as it stands now only Obama cam fundamentally change the ways thibgs have been done. Will it work ? Sure there are no guarantees but he will get his chance with a very democratic House and Senate and we will judge him by the results he will achieve.

Sure the race will tighten some in the last 2 weeks as they almost always do but McCain hasnt had any sort of support in the 50% range and i cant envision so many people who are committed to Obama now changing their minds. Democratic turnout is guaranteed to be very very strong especially the AA vote. Add to that the fact that the state polls are absolutely abbyssmal for McCain i dont see any way for him to sweep all battleground states.

zen,

the NC numbers arent good. 24% AA(19% 2004)and obama can only make it to 46.....

@KipTin:

"Newspaper editorial endorsements also do not determine elections"

Yes, but cumulatively all these newspapers reach millions of people. And if there are still some voters leaning Obama but not 100% sure, these endorsements can only help make his case to the voters.

I have had a problem with LV polls all along because I don't think they reflect the dynamics of this years race. Anybody that doesn't think that AA turnout won't be at least 75% of RV as opposed to the 55-60 that Gallup has in its traditional poll is smoking something.That being said, I think a lot of the undecided were lean McCain anyway and that's what we may be seeing. The fact that they are still taking 3 pts of margin from obama rv number is troubling. It seems that they just can't make themselves think that AA's will vote like caucasians this time around. I would be interested in hearing what you guys think about that.

@jonny87,

Obama does not need to win NC to win this election. He only needs to spread McShame's efforts over so many red states in these last two weeks.

And none of us can possibly know what the AA turnout might be. As one AA voter posted a few days ago: this has been 400 years in the making.

I was just at TIPP Online:

http://www.tipponline.com/

Obama: 47.2%
McCain: 39.8%

Yowza, the poll some people call the most accurate out there keeps expanding for Obama. :-)

BTW: About state poll lagging. Actually, the national polls have had several tightenings the past couple of weeks. Yet, we never saw that in the State polls. I can't remember the state polls ever drifting to McCain in the wake of any time after McCain increased in the nationals. I really think the McCain trend is NOT translating into the battleground states. The tightening is just making the Deep Red states redder. I guess when people are confronted with the truth about their insidious political stances, they panic and become more dogmatic about them....

Newspaper endorsements. Good lord, do you think the media really want Obama to win? My eyes have been opened.

Oh, and that Missouri rally. Do you think Obama remembered to bring the loaves and fishes?

@jonny87:

I don't know where you got that only 19% of AA voted in NC in 2004
Fact check:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NC/P/00/epolls.0.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297180/

According to MSNBC and CNN it was 26% so over the 24%

If that is the "case" then note that the "Oregonian" (Oregon's largest newspaper) endorsed incumbent Senator Smith over the Democrat rival because Smith truly represents Oregon citizens as proven by his record whereas they are afraid that Merkley will just be a "foot soldier" for the Democratic party and ignore Oregon.

Pat,

true. thats why obama should spend his time hammering Va, Fl and CO

Today's IBD poll has Obama up 7.3%

is there any AA posters on here?

Here's the link to that poll...
http://www.tipponline.com/

Jonny87:

Early voting in North Carolina, already 200K have voted.

Exit Polls on the first day~ 64% Democrat, 21% Republican and 15% unaffiliated. 3:1 Democrat turnout! And almost double the number of Rep+Independents!

African American turnout 36% of Thursday's early voters (vs. 22% of NC currently registered voters). In 2004, blacks made up 18.6% of voters. That's twice the expected turnout.

Even more foreboding...if the turnout keeps up like it has been the proportion of Republicans participating in NC may be equivalent to the poll turnout of African Americans in 2004....and black voters may be twice their numbers.

boomcrap

TIPP your favorite poll...No my mistake that was last week!

@chester

lol! That's what boomshak calls the "most accurate pollster" too.

He wont say that now though.

Uh... TIPP calls itself "America's most accurate pollster."

But, hey, maybe by election day they will be. They have 13% undecided right now, and I would expect that number to decline as we near Nov. 4.

orange24 said: "You can throw that out the window this year. It's a whole different dynamic in this race, as record numbers of minorities and lower income people have registered."

I get that Mickey Mouse comes from a minority but I don't know whether he is low income.

Inkan1969:
I was just at TIPP Online:

http://www.tipponline.com/

Obama: 47.2%
McCain: 39.8%

Yowza, the poll some people call the most accurate out there keeps expanding for Obama. :-)

BTW: About state poll lagging. Actually, the national polls have had several tightenings the past couple of weeks. Yet, we never saw that in the State polls. I can't remember the state polls ever drifting to McCain in the wake of any time after McCain increased in the nationals.

Actually, they did somewhat about a week after the GOP convention, but it never got to the point where he had a convincing EV lead. Just a lot of light blue states turning yellow.

Observer:

"Oh, and that Missouri rally. Do you think Obama remembered to bring the loaves and fishes?"

Are you equating Obama with Jesus? Are you comparing Obama with a true Messiah? If you are trying to mock the Obama, why are you comparing him to Jesus? In doing so, you are not mocking Obama or his constituency, you are you mocking the Christian faith.

@kiptin

"Uh... TIPP calls itself "America's most accurate pollster.""

Hey, thanks captain obvious! We all know that, but thanks.

My point is that boom continually referred to TIPP when it showed a 2pt Obama lead and cited its validity as being "the most accurate pollster" yet, hypocrite that he is, I doubt he'll be championing it's accuracy right now.

And with them showin a 7pt Obama lead, I agree that they very well might be the most accurate come election day.

cinnamonape,

no doubt its a great start but AA turnout started off at 40% but is now under 36%, mainly due to the relatively modest AA male turnout. i was wondering if anyone is aware if AA males arent as enthusiastic???

KipTin

The Tipp Poll was the most accurate in 2004 by being off the mark by 0.4%.

@jonny87:

I agree but we don't know if the campaign's internal polls tell a different story.

DecaturMark:

Are you equating Obama with Jesus? Are you comparing Obama with a true Messiah? If you are trying to mock the Obama, why are you comparing him to Jesus? In doing so, you are not mocking Obama or his constituency, you are you mocking the Christian faith.

Moi?

Nate on 538 makes an excellent analysis on todays polls.
About the TIpp, with 13% of undecided I think it's little reliable. Think also about the fact that they might adjust their averaging model (it's a fairly recent poll).
And I would add that my concerns now are not about the polls numbers but the momentum, which seems, with all the Joes the socialists accusations etc, that McCain is massively displaying, seems to be shifted to his campaign.

Observer

"Moi?"

Oui, Tu!

CNN has African Americans making up 26% of the voters in 2004 and whites 71%.

Census Quickfacts has blacks as 22% of the population and whites at 74%.

I think you are missing the fact that blacks had already been voting in larger proportions before this year in this state.

Some time ago I read an article about black voting in the South, and that significantly increasing their numbers is not so easy because so many already vote (as compared to the rest of U.S. blacks).

kerrchdavis says: "My point is that boom continually referred to TIPP when it showed a 2pt Obama lead and cited its validity as being "the most accurate pollster" yet, hypocrite that he is, I doubt he'll be championing it's accuracy right now."

Gap looks to be about 3/4% at the moment. I think both 2% and 7% are within the margin of error. However if the margin keeps getting bigger then I shall have to denounce it as an outlier until it sees the error of its ways.

@Observer:

I don't know. Did Palin bring the loaves and fishes to her rally?...

@ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate

Yes, the state polls did fall after the national polls fell in August after the celebrity ad and September after the convention. But I referring to recent tightenings. McCain has gotten closer during the first half of the week for the past two weeks. Yet we never saw anything corresponding to that in the state polls.

@Observer

Unless the other national polls follow TIPP's suit...

Please.. maddiekat.. learn to read more comprehensively and critically.

From TippOnline.com--
"In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within 3/10 of 1% point of President Bush's actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster." We''re planning to do it again this time around, so why not come along for the ride!"

No where does it say that its everyday tracking polls are the most accurate, but it's FINAL results matched the Bush victory. And what do you think it means "come along for the ride." It means that they are shooting for a similar target.

Good grief, they have only had 6 days of tracking to date. I agree that they will be fine-tuning their model to hit that target.

The discrepancies in the NC vote totals vs. the exit polls have been attributed to two factors.

The "official" line has been that White North Carolinians (and Bush supporters) voted early and by absentee ballot disproportionately. Black voters thus showed up disproportionately on the day of the election and were "overcounted" by the exit polls rel. to their actual voting proportion (26% vs. 19%).

The other hypothesis is that this is simply bunkum...since no one actually bothered to survey early voters in 2004 by race. These folks argue that this indicates voter fraud.

This year the early voters are being surveyed. So any discrepancy will be observed.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/05/erroneous-exit-poll.html

Let's face it, if 25 reputable polls showed a landslide for the other guy and an unknown 'Read the Tealeaves' poll was published by our guy's brother and showed a 1% lead for our chosen one we would give it a favourable mention.

KipTin

"No where does it say that its everyday tracking polls are the most accurate, but it's FINAL results matched the Bush victory. And what do you think it means "come along for the ride." It means that they are shooting for a similar target.

Good grief, they have only had 6 days of tracking to date. I agree that they will be fine-tuning their model to hit that target."

Yes, but their fine tuning seems to be going toward an Obama blow out than to a McCain win. Plese explain....

@ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

You are right about the EV shift after the convention. If I remember correctly, McCain's high water mark was +20 EV's on RCP after the Republican convention, and his highest ever electoral estimate without tossups was 274. Obama's high on sveral occasions has been more than 350.

Since the general election began, McCain has only led in the polling and the electoral college for 8 days, and they were all in the week after the convention.

What? One would not fine tune within the first week of polling... i.e. they need a base from which to work. Where did not you understand that TIPP only has SIX days of polling?

" mainly due to the relatively modest AA male turnout. i was wondering if anyone is aware if AA males arent as enthusiastic???"

1 in 7 Adult African American Males have been convicted of a felony (this can be things like marijuana possession, check-kiting, theft of a vehicle, etc.).

One issue is that a disproportionate number may not be able to vote, or, if the laws have changed, may not KNOW they can vote.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/23/politics/campaign/23felons.html

But this would certainly lower the number of AA males vs. females actually registered, if not voting.

As I recall, the 2004 exit pollsters did a poor job last time. But even they would point out there there is a margin of error in all of their figures.

And of course the relevant percentage is people of voting age, not raw census percentage. A community with a high number of children will have a relatively smaller electoral impact. A community with a low number of children will have more impact than their census numbers.

I have no idea how this impacts N. Carolina or anywhere else but statistically it is quite possible in theory for an 'exit poll' of 26% +/- x (x = margin of error) to equal a census of 19% without there being any disproportionate turnout.

WOW! Great news today while I was gone. Holy Crowds for Obama MO! Whose got the MO now?!?!

Also the last few days hearing all the praise about the TIPP poll, I am pleased to see some surging going on there as well. Surging for OBAMA that is!

http://www.tipponline.com/

I received one of the disgusting robocalls on my voicemail as well here in WI. McShame, you sir are pathetic. Please don't call me your "friend", as any respect that I had for you in 2000 as a human being has been flushed down the toilet along with your campaign.

@ricbrig

You wrote ..."And I would add that my concerns now are not about the polls numbers but the momentum, which seems, with all the Joes the socialists accusations etc, that McCain is massively displaying, seems to be shifted to his campaign"

Obama will grab the headlines next week. On Monday everyone will be talking about the size of his crowd in MO and Powell endorsement (if it happens on Meet the Press tomorrow). He will campaign with Hillary in Orlando on Tuesday. Then in the middle of the week he will release his Oct fundraising numbers. Who knows what else he is planning. Joe the plumber/socialists comments by McShame will be old news.

Kiptin

So you are saying that TIPP did not pre poll for a baseline prior to their initial posting and are now adjusting those numbers? If that is so, why are their #s surging toward Obama in the week that it has been active? Please explain....

@ Boomnut

More evidence of that McCain surge! Obama now up 7 as of today in IBD/TIPP Poll. Wow what a surge. Obama is collapsing.

http://www.tipponline.com/

Kiptin

Thank you however I do no how to read. In fact I have a list of polling results for 2004. In fact your poll of the week Gallup missed the mark in 2004 by 2.5%.

"jonny87:
no doubt its a great start but AA turnout started off at 40% but is now under 36%, mainly due to the relatively modest AA male turnout. i was wondering if anyone is aware if AA males arent as enthusiastic???"

BTW Do you have a source for the Day 2 figures that show a drop off in the AA figures. The numbers I provided (36%) were the Day 1 figures. Not Day 2.

The Salt Lake City Tribune endorses Obama.

http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_10750163

Thanks for the shoutout, Utah. :-)

What is amazing is that many of the conservative newpapers and pundits are endorsing Obama. It is crazy.

I have been wondering how many Romney Mormon supporters would actually come out in great numbers in Nevada and support McCain? I am not sure they would consider the nasty primary between McCain & Romney and the Palin pick instead of Romney.

Utah!?!?! Salt Lake City!?!?! Endorsing OBAMA?!! whoa......

Stop worrying about polls. The people will speak on November 4th. I am confident that if we (we the Democrats) and like minded Independants vote, and vote in record numbers, that Obama and Biden will win.

Your vote won't count if you don't vote. Get to the polls and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

Why is anyone worried?

McCain is at 43% in the RCP average.

100.000 is great but here in Berlin: 200.000 !!!

Kiptin

In fact after looking at all the results for 2004 I would keep my eye this year on the TIPP Poll, Rasmussen Poll, and the Battleground Poll. They were all within 1% of the 2004 result, where as Zogby and Gallup were at best in the middle of the pack.

Today

Ras O + 5
Battleground O +4
TIPP O + 7

I am happy with a 5% plus lead

@Dan1967

Thats true...but just don't vote for Obama.....vote Democratic.We need big majorities in the house and senate.

Wednsday likely was a very good day of polling for McCain, even in expanded LV's, espeically since we've seen Gallup polls Show Obama won the debate and his favorability numbers rose, so likely Obama's numbers tommorow, when Wednsday drops off the roll will likely climb, and McCain's will likely fall

I couldn't agree more with liz_from_NJ. Great observations. The Internet may be the most egalitarian thing that's happened to our society in the past 100 years.

100k in missouri, omg!

@Pat:
'What is amazing is that many of the conservative newpapers and pundits are endorsing Obama. It is crazy.'

Let's hope that they are statistically significant. I don't think these kind of endorsements will shift votes.
Again, please who, before the Obama early october surge, was thinking about a +8% win? This is a though race, now in the interva +2-5 % (like i was in late september) and, again, the campain has to regain momentum. This is the major problem I see at the moment.
About the crowds, they do not win the elections, they do motivate people to go and vote, so, for me it's not a sign of imminent victory.

The Miami Herald and Denver Post also endorsed Obama.

Looks like the party is over for the Dumb and Dumber ticket.

Everyone needs to get out the vote and help Obama/Biden as much as they can - donate, volunteer, etc.

Uh... Salt Lake City has a Democratic mayor and lots of Democrats. (Ever been there?) So do not get too excited about a SLC newspaper endorsement for Obama.

cinnamonape,

i was talking about GA numbers. they keep updating them here....

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

i just calculate the AA% each day there updated.

As for NC numbers ive only seen the report about day 1 numbers. however i read that NC also update there numbers although i have not been able to find out where.

does anyone know of any other states that update early voting demographs?

research 2000 had McCain at +17 in NC that is a 19 point gain

FYI... maddiecat... I do not have a "favorite" poll. I can not emotionally react to statistical samples. But I do like to nitpick those who do do and correct their misstatements and false assumptions.

jonny87:
In 2004 only about 3.5 million people voted in Georgia. The fact that already 600k have voted there is huge, isnt it? 20% of total already...

TIPP POLL STRANGE:

When everyone else had McCain down by 8, TIPP showed it a 2 point race. Now that everyone else has Obama's lead shrinking significantly and in the 2-5 point range, TIPP explodes 2 points a day for Obama.

Just odd.

political_junki,

its pretty spectacular...just hoping AA males eventually turn out like AA women.

All eyes on Colin Powell tomorrow on MTP. Anybody care to make predictions? I don't think he goes on MTP 2 weeks out just to talk about the election. I think he's endorsing somebody tomorrow. I sure hope it's Obama, but I honestly don't know. Considering it's NBC, what many consider the 'left' network, that may be a good sign. Let's hope so. I think his endorsement alone is worth a point, maybe two.

boomshak

I think Ras is on the number and has been the only one to show this to be a very consistant race.

I go along with maddie

"boomshak:
TIPP POLL STRANGE:

When everyone else had McCain down by 8, TIPP showed it a 2 point race. Now that everyone else has Obama's lead shrinking significantly and in the 2-5 point range, TIPP explodes 2 points a day for Obama.

Just odd."

Well what do ya know! Earlier this week you had a huge boner for TIPP, boom****. Now you're throwing it under the bus since it shows Obama's number improving. SHOCKING!

OMG FAIL!

Absolute Gold!

And this is how Virginia was delivered to Obama on a platter. Keep in mind that she is a *senior* McCain adviser... Watch the video.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_adviser_Northern_Va_not_the_real_Virginia.html

Nate Silver has a explanation for this madness. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1018.html

Hey, I just realised that Gallup actually marks the low end and high end of Obama's lead, (O+2 with the Trad Model) and (O+8 with LV). Wow... talk about hedging your bets.

Those robocalls are really working on undecided voters:

http://www.wisn.com/video/17738211/index.html

Another example of McCain pandering to the base and turning off undecided voters. We may be back up to 7, 8, maybe 10 point lead again next week.

@vmval1: I just watched that. Way to go Nancy! That'll really boost the GOP vote in northern Va.

@orange24:

I think the reason Powell is going on NBC Meet the Press is because during an earlier appearance a couple of months ago he promised to come back when he is ready to endorse.

@mirrorball:

It seems like a really stupid thing to do given 33% of Va's voters are in Northern Va.

kipcrap - Aren't you late for the KKK meeting.....I mean, Palin rally??

Like they say, not all republicans are racist, but all racists are republican.

I therefore, vote accordingly. How could I justify voting for someone that the KKK also voted for. How could this person represent both the racist and the innocent person whose only crime was to be born with a darker skin tone??

No wonder why the whole world laughs at us - these knuckle-dragging retards elected Bush and now they are propping up mccrap/paliar.

deeznuts what time is that meeting, I don't want to be late. See you there.

Powell will not make a formal endorsement tomorrow, but he will make it clear for whom he will vote.

Can't wait to see Sarah on SNL tonight. She is sooooooo hot.

Don't get too excited about the Northern Virginia comment hurting Virginia...McCain supporters who live in Northern Virginia definitely agree. And it is totally different than the rest of Va.

Prince County and Fairfax County neighbor each other but are worlds apart. Fairfax County(neighbors DC) is basically as liberal as can get. Prince William County voted to basically rid the county of illegals.

As far as the crowd in Missouri for Obama...I hope the opposite effect doesn't happen as it did in Berlin. And Missouri does border his home state, nonetheless a good size crowd.

As far as poll...they will tighten up in the states as Republicans come home. I want to see the McCain camp internals for PA...he is back there again on Tuesday.

I really don't think anyone gives any credence to Powell. I think most will view it as just another black for a black

Powell...should have endorsed earlier. Now I have to agree with southern angler.

Really? So is lieberman endorsing mccain just another white for a white?

PWNED.

@ deeznutsrepubs

KKK still exists because of stupid behinds like you! White democrats were the leaders of this movement ..

if there is still anyone here other than bigots and trolls,

http://www.censurebachmann.com/

in regard her guest appearance on Chris Matthews last night. Only takes a minute for the effect that will help us over the lifetime. TIA

~Latte

@ deeznutsrepubs

What % of whites are voting for Obama vs. McCain? And what % of AA are doing the same ? Does that give you an answer to your stupid analogy ... racism is more a democratic agenda... it is a good card for them , otehrwise they would not exist ...

I can't wait for SNL to make fun of that retarded bimbo again. This time, they don't even need tina fey, they got the brain-dead ass-clown in the flesh.

You said it Vivala "were" now they are republicans

OMG this is too funny:

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

Turn your sound up and click on everthing multiple times.

@ fed

Perhaps for this year because they won't vote AA brother .. Then they will back to vote for Clinton as they did in the primaries .. You got to confess about how useful it is for Dems to play the race card ...

deezuts you should read Gone With The Wind, if you can read. You may be surprised to find that repubs freed the slaves. You may also be surprised to as to how southerns dems really view blacks.

southern angler, i know that youre just a troll trying to piss people off, but try to be less idiotic when you do it. lets try to raise the discourse a little bit.

as im sure you know, lincoln was a progressive, as was the republican party back then.

I'm sorry the truth hurts vivacraptastic.

Have you not seen the racist rallies for Palin? Are you THAT DUMB??? Go to youtube and search for "bloggerinterrupted".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPg0VCg4AEQ&eurl=http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/

As far as your other IDIOTIC argument - blacks have supported Democrats ever since the civil rights bill. That is why the dems lost the south to the racist repubs. All the old southern dems (many racists) switched over to the repub party after LBJ signed the civil rights act. Before that many blacks supported repubs (due to Lincoln).

Learn some history before you post - otherwise people will think you are an effing retard.

And as far as your bogus % argument, blacks have been supporting white candidates their whole life - they had no choice, dim-wit. They didn't sit out elections because no blacks were running. Look at the support slick willy got in the 90's. Now, can you say the same about whites - obviously not. Whites have been voting for whites their whole life too, except now that a black guy comes along, they still won't even consider voting for him due to how he looks.

Pathetic......just like you.

PWNED.

Racism is a fact Vivala and it is too serious of a matter to ignore on both sides and people who diminish the importance of racism the way you are doing, by calling it "useful for democrats", are the people who are more dangerous in this country. Instead of satanding up against it you allow it to happen for political purpouses. That is the way Nazism became strong in 30´s.

Ok I'm bored with the whole angry black guy thing. see y'all

good riddance to bad rubbish

The major benefit of a possible Powell endorsement is that it will dominate the news cycle for 1-2 days which with 16 days left for McSame will be lethal. Combine that with Clinton campaigning in Florida with Obama you're looking at 13 days for McSame to do something. He better hope during that time OBL steps out of his cave to moon the press.

Southern Angler...you of all people should know that the Segregationist Dixiecrats all shifted into the Republican Party as a consequence of Nixon's "Southern Strategy". That left a few progressive/liberal whites, the Blacks that fled the Republican Party (or shifted in there during the Kennedy years), and Latinos. Oh, and a few populist yellowdogs like my Mom. ...who have changed their racial attitudes over a long decades-long process.

You aren't fooling anyone on this site, SA.

BTW...to Boom...who asserted that the only folks that would be at that rally in St. Louis would be blacks.

Your racism is really showing.

http://www.kmov.com/perl/common/slideshow/sspop.pl?recid=12635&nextimage=11

I have to really wonder about you folks supporting McCain, here. Yesterday we had that very offensively racist pseudo-interview posted, the increasingly bizarre comments by the South African Boskop (which suggests he was cut-and-pasting his earlier intelligible material), stuff from Raleigh and Boom?

BTW

Fed, Got That!

NC

Research 2000/DailyKos.com (D) 10/14-15/08 600 LV 44 46 - - 7 3 +2D

Research 2000/DailyKos.com (D) 9/8-10/08 600 LV 55 38 - - 7 - +17R

Not a bad gain in a month. Though that earlier poll was an outlier. (It was the one that Boom and Boskop and KipTin were holding onto).

My take on the Powell endorsement. It will have some effect on military support for Obama, particularly some of those that served under Powell. It takes the sting out of the assertions by the extremists that Obama is some sort of secret Marxist.

And, like Southern Angler and Batony...it will force the nutcases to really expose their racist attitudes

"Colin Powell is a black guy...of course he'd support Obama. Black folk can't think. Their minds turn to mush when it comes to another black guy running. They are robots!"

Bow in the presence of greatness, rethugs:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/18/12630/064/131/634471

Cinnamonape is the "outliar." You insist that I favor or hang on to certain polls when it is you who lets your bias rule your opinion of certain polls. At least I can see these polls for what they are... a statistical sample of the voting population.

powell's support for obama is a non starter for obama. this is a man who has entirely lost credibility having not had the brains to think for himself at the UN.

He sold the world a case of snake oil and swallowed the stuff himself.

he mishandled desert storm and mishandled the iraq invasion. all in, he resigned to save his face. he is not the black icon of success he once was and he has only himself to blame.

Powell's endorsement will simply be taken as some black guy endorsing another black guy.

Sorry to say it, but that's reality. There is otherwise no objective reason that Powell would endorse him, e.g. when one looks at Obama's foreign policy agenda it is pretty much diametrically opposed to Powell's.

(Powell is not qualified to make endorsements based on potential Supreme Court nominees, at least, no more qualified than you, me, the guy waiting for the bus, or Joe the Plummer.)

So, it made the news for today but tomorrow will be forgotten.