10/13-15, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Obama 50, McCain 46
I HAVE JUST DECIDED THAT THE HOTLINE POLL IS UTTER BS. CHECK THIS LINE:
"Obama now holds a commanding advantage in battleground states. The Dem nominee leads 55-33% among LVs in CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI. A week ago, in the survey completed 10/8, he led these voters 50-42%.
So they are trying to tell us that Obama is ahead by 23 FRIGGIN POINTS in the battleground states, but only 8% nationally (while Rasmussen has it at 4%).
Seriously, what ARE they smoking?
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:01 AM
It's over! McCain wins!
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:02 AM
One point changes in any poll can be attributed to statistical noise. A continuous change is needed for a trend. I think today will be the last day this week that the poll numbers will tightening. Tomorrow, with the market crash and the debate factored in, poll differences will start to widen.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:04 AM
it's a national poll, boom, not a state poll. all that matters is the top line. and the top line is much more in line with other national polls than rasmussen right now.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:05 AM
I am still trying to figure out how Hotline can have Obama only ahead by 8 nationally but ahead by 23 in the battleground states.
Is that even mathematically possible?
O-50 (-1); M - 44 (+1)
Cancel the election! Give the presidency to McCain right now. Obama can't win. He just can't win. I mean, the RCP average is down to 6.9. How can he win with only a 6.9 lead in the polls?
Certainly possible with McCain getting 60+% in states like Tennessee, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Mississippi, Kentucky, and Alabama.
Polls in PA, MI, NM, NH, and WI have been skyrocketing. But polls in deep red states have also been skyrocketing. So McCain could be drawing all his popularity from the deep reds.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:07 AM
Internals of the Rasmussen Poll (I'm a premium member) show pretty gig movement to McCain over the last 4-5 days. I don't know if will continue or not, but one thing is clear is that Obama has not put it away. Favorable have gone from Obama 56 McCain 51 to McCain 55 Obama 54. Also, withou leaners it is Obama 47 McCain 44 and of those certain of vote that will not change mind it has gone in less than a week from Obama 45 McCain 38 to a dead even tie at 42. I think there is a movement here. I went to pick up tickets for a Palin rally at a outdoor concert facility Friday. I had to wait for 90 minute to get tickets (and there were multiple other locations). They are expecting a full house of 40,000 people. Amazing.
CREEP UP MACK, CREEP UP!!!!
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:13 AM
RCP Average Spread (sans Gallup):
10/2 - +6.6 Obama
10/9 - +5.6 Obama
10/12 - +7.0 Obama
10/14 - +8.2 Obama
10/15 - +7.3 Obama
10/16 - +6.9 Obama
Some tightening pre-debate, but today's number is still higher than 2 weeks ago. Since most think Obama won last night, this could open up again.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:14 AM
The Ayres smear probably has a greater impact in red States. As Rasmussen has tightened we have not seen a big difference in the battleground polls. Remember that Obama has no ads or campaign in red states
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:15 AM
I'll buy that Ras has shown movement to McCain. Obama was up by 8 points (52-44) for a while, which has shrunk by 1/2 now.
I think the polls are all roughly in agreement. This is going to be a battle of turnout; the spread will really depend upon who shows up and votes.
Gallup hedging its bets with two separate turnout models shows just how uncertain it is.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:16 AM
Can't wait to see the post debate polls...
Undecideds laughing at John McCain!
"In politics it is generally not considered a good sign when voters are laughing at you, not with you. And by the end of the third and last presidential debate, the undecided voters who had gathered in Denver for Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg’s focus group were “audibly snickering” at John McCain’s grimaces, eye-bulging, and repeated references to “Joe the Plumber.”"
The Rasmussen shift to McCain is not noise, like some other polls could be. The internals have been moving steadily in McCain's direction over the past week, softening Obama's support.
Hotline is just not a respected poll in the class with Gallup and Rasmussen. Hotline is also undersampling independents and then drawing conclusions from less than 40 of them polled daily. Whatever.
Gallup's traditional poll showed a 3 point spread yesterday. 4% is totally in line with that and the TIPP poll at a 3% spread, which was the most accurate in the last election and also doesn't swing wildly in any given day
Too many national polls. It is REDICLULOUS to get worked up over them. If they only polled NV, CO, OH, VA, and FL that would tell you far better who's going to win.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:17 AM
I don't doubt that there is some new interest in JM and SP, but I think it is based on hype about 'game-changing' speeches, or 'Bill Ayers' terrorist jabs or other shenanigans.
In the end, the public has rejected Republican issues and policies in sufficient percentages to switch House, Senate and Presidency to the Dems. I think that is what the Repubs should take away and re-think their approach to politics.
All this BS about rejecting one poll and accepting another are the final drinks on the Titanic. It's frickin October 16th, what do you expect to come down the pipeline?!?!?
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:18 AM
BTW people, let's not forget how WILDLY WRONG all the polls were during the primaries.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:19 AM
Also ten days ago Obama was up by 8% on Rassmussen. So a four point gain for McCain in ten days. That means that if this incremental MO continues for McCain in ten days, aka October 26th, it could be tied again. It's not over. I'll take incremental gains in a respected stable poll over spikes in less respected polls any day. Just a thought.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:20 AM
Like I said in the last post, I am throwing up a bit in my mouth now. Why movement back to McCain? The answer I come up with is the negative stuff is working a bit. If we haven't seen Obama get this thing above 5 points in Ras by Sunday be worried, like I am now
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:21 AM
Seriously, to be an "undecided" this late in the game, don't you pretty much have to be an IDIOT?
It's like finding jurors who have never heard of a case that has been in all the papers for a year.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:22 AM
By the way, there was a debate in the last ten days, that supposedly Obama won. McCain has still made gains in that time, while being outspent, 3:1, 8:1 in some markets. He'll start spending money now and did much better in last nights debate. It's going to be close.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:23 AM
Te electorate always shifts from style to substance as the election approaches. look how Obama faired in the primaries after he was already the presumptive nominee. he was losing states by 20 points and more.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:24 AM
In Wisconsin Obama has a 17 point lead in the CNN poll. That is how Obama can have a lead in the Battleground states. He campaigns and spends money where he wants to win and WILL win. As opposed to McCain, who campaigns and spends money in places like IA, MN, WI, NH, etc. where he doesn't stand a chance of winning.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but states where McCain may be up double digits to bring down the national average in these polls such as Texas, Miss., AK, AL, etc. are not going to win this one for McCain.
Of most importance are the individual states that make up the electoral map, as we so painfully saw in 2000, when Gore won so much more of the popular vote, but still wasn't President.
Anyone check out Intrade lately??
Also, if Joe Six Pack the Plummer wasn't a McCain plant, why were there TV camera's at his house when he was WATCHING the debate??
Landslide Baby Landslide
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:26 AM
Is there evidence that state battleground polls lag behind national polls?
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:27 AM
Obama is the one who knocked on Joe's door...
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:31 AM
Perhaps you or someone can explain?
The split of independent ID voting intention. I think you and I can agree that nationally there are a minimum of 25% of voters who would consider themselves independents.
I don't know how Rasmussen is achieving his 4% today as I haven't seen a single poll recently where Obama has not held a significant lead with Independents.
Maybe one of the Premium members, I think you are one, can explain what Rasmussen's polling is on the Independents in his sampling?
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:32 AM
I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44
Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48.2 McCain 44.4
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 51 McCain 43
Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.3
*We need to add Gallup when it comes out :-)
obviously these polls dont reflect opinions after the debate but i think obamas team may have gone over the top a little with wanting to appear cool and calm all the time. he didnt exactly seem like he was going to fighting with every fibre of his being for the middle class last night. there would have been no harm in showing a little more controlled passion.
...and to any premium ras members data on democrats???
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:35 AM
Let's see the trend of tracking polls:
Today average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7
Yesterday average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.3
Today average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7
Monday average: Obama 49.2 McCain 43.4
Thursday 10/15 average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7
Thursday 10/9 average: Obama 48.2 McCain 43.8
*We will update when Gallup comes out :-)
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:36 AM
For boom and the others hoping against hope... Great, I'll grant you some of these national polls have certainly showed signs of "tightening" beyond just statistical noise over the past few days. the problem? The crucial state polls are showing opposite movement. This can only be indicative of the fact that very red states are reddening more. If I start seeing some "swing" state polls that are showing the same movement toward McCain, I'll say id's indicative of a tightening race. But without that, what good does a few points nationally do for him?
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:38 AM
Quite wasting time arguing. Obama is kicking butt in the battleground states. McCain has picked up less than 1% in Colorado and Florida, although he's widening his lead in red states (who the f--k cares). We need you guys out there making phone calls or going to Ohio to stop the voter suppression efforts by the GOP.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:40 AM
uhhh I don't believe Obama's favorables are higher (55-54) than Obama's as seen in Rassmussen. While I have trusted them this cannot be true :)
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:41 AM
look how Obama faired in the primaries after he was already the presumptive nominee. he was losing states by 20 points and more.
Let's roll the tape. The last 10 primaries on the schedule. By my count, he lost only two by 20 points or more:
The averages tell their own story. thanks, the extra numbers that you and Johncoz tabulate are very helpful in judging the state of the race.
I gotta say I feel sorry for John McCain. He quite clearly has had his character and identity hijacked by some bush-league (pun intended) campaign strategists, and as a result, he's running a campaign that in no way represents who he really is. In my experience, as soon as a candidate seems deserving of pity he has lost the election. That, more than any other poll in the nation, is more indicative of the landslide to come.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:45 AM
Your welcome, thoughtful :-) My pleasure!
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:46 AM
As Max has referred to both Colorado and Florida have both lost a bit of the Obama blue and gone to light blue.
Boomshak is salivating
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:48 AM
You beat me to it! So, now I'll just reiterate it. The new McCain stump (which is not NEW, it is his convention speech word-for-word) is appealing greatly to his base. So, the red state numbers are soaring, making the national numbers tighter. Last night was another example of playing to his base. The problem is that he already has the base. They may be more enthusiastic now, but he already had their vote. He needs to win undecideds, and on that front he's still getting cleaned by Obama. Most important of any of this, Obama still has a double-digit lead in VA, close to that in CO, and is tied in a whole bunch of states. McCain has to run the table on the battlegrounds because if Obama wins ONE, it's over.
By the way, we had a great shot at FL until the mouth that roared - Jesse Jackson - opened up his yap. Now, he's scared away the FL jewish vote and McCain will probably overtake him in FL. He just couldn't stand not being the black 'alpha-dog' anymore. Obama is simply not black enough for Jesse, so he figures he'll make sure he doesn't get elected. Thanks Jesse, you jackass.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:50 AM
orange24, I have to agree with you that if in fact McCain gains grounds in national/state polls, it is because he stopped obsessing with Ayers and "re-invented" himself with that new "up-beating" stump speech. You have to agree that the media played it like the most amazing thing ever :-) I also think that McCain has being better off with Palin behind the curtain.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:55 AM
"he didnt exactly seem like he was going to fighting with every fibre of his being for the middle class last night. there would have been no harm in showing a little more controlled passion."
This is a common misperception that Dems make. We want Obama to attack. But the Indys and Undecideds don't like that. They want to see an elevated, bipartisan tone. I used to share your opinion about Obama not being aggressive enough. Believe me, he knows what he's doing.
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:56 AM
your right, jesse jackson is a jerk.
but hopefully jews in florida will react in a similar manner to this from the jersusalem post...
"Deep down, maybe not even far down, Jackson wants to destroy Obama"
Posted on October 16, 2008 10:58 AM
Can we ignore Boom today? State polls have been awesome for Obama. When McCain's racking up 30 to 40 point wins in low info red states it's bound to change some tracking #'s. WHO CARES. The fundamentals of the race are right where they've always been. So Obama loses 1 in Rasmussen today. YAY. He gained 1 in Zogby. BOTH of these pollsters are on the WAY WAY CONSERVATIVE side. There are two kinds of pollsters this year folks... some going on "traditional" voter turn out... and just as many believing this will be a break out year for voter turn out and dem advantage. This is why there are SEVERAL polls at 7,8,9, 10, even 14 for Obama and why some are at 3, 4, and 5.
It's simply a difference of method. FACT? Obama is up 3% in the WORST case scenerio. Let me remind you. BUSH won the last election with a 2% lead going into election day. I'm feeling good.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:01 AM
The problem is that people knows that Jesse Jackson is NOT fan of Obama. Remember that Jesse wanted to cut Obama's n**s a while ago?
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:02 AM
zotz, i didnt mean go after mccain..your right it wouldnt be effective.
but in the second debate most observers agreed that obama talking about his mom was an effective moment, there was nothing with any emotion last night.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:04 AM
Hey all. I'm a long time reader, and a first time poster.
I disagree with you about 99.9% of the time. But your opinion regarding undecided voters is something that I cannot in any way agree with you more. Hence the 0.1%. Cheers.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:07 AM
I will be out of town starting tonight and not be back to check this sight out until Sunday night so here are my Ras predictions for the next three days
O 49 M 46
O 48 M 47
M 48 O 47
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:08 AM
like most of us have been saying for over a week now, the race will most likely tighten before election day. with that said, keep in mind the rcp average is still 6.9. boom, if the best hope youd seen for obama was a poll showing him down by 4, i have to think youd still be pretty confident about mccain, so excuse me if im not shaking in my boots... i dont even own boots...
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:10 AM
jonny, if obama came across as too cool than mccain came across as way too hot, and i dont mean that hes attractive. rolling his eyes, snorting, interrupting, grimacing... he didnt look very good last night.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:14 AM
You and I both agree.
Obama got it as right as he possibly could have last night. Going one step further.
Presidents aren't argumentative. Why grace Palin with a "Not Qualified" comment.
State a positive Presidential policy and move on to the next issue.
He returned time and time again to the middle class and the centre ground.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:18 AM
mccain did come off angry but i not sure if thats going to make a lasting impact...although i hope that it does!
'The Dem (obama) is launching TV ads in West Virginia and may pour more money into Kentucky, return to North Dakota, Georgia airwaves'
i hope they know what ther doing
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:23 AM
This is certainly interesting, but I'm waiting for any sort of trend before I take this seriously.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:25 AM
The problem is that people knows that Jesse Jackson is NOT fan of Obama. Remember that Jesse wanted to cut Obama's n**s a while ago?
Oh, I completely agree. Jackson has been trying to sabotage the Obama campaign since the early days. But, I just think this is the kind of thing that the McCain campaign can have a field day with regarding the older jewish voters in FL who until recently were convinced he was an Arab. They were just swinging our way, then Rev BigMouth has to ruin all the progress that had been made there. That state is way too close, and that is a key demographic to pick up in FL. I'm not sure he can win FL without it. And it's to easy for McCain to make the connection between Obama and Jackson, even though there never has been and never will be. But, who ever said politicians had to be truthful...
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:30 AM
Thank you...sb... for info. That Hotline has such a small number of participants in the "Independent" group has always bothered me.
Why pick on Jesse Jackson, when Congressman Jack Murtha (D) called his western district of PA all racists?
Yesterday's Gallup poll stated that McCain had a good polling night on Tuesday. So that seems to correlate with Rasmussen showing McCain movement.
I think that McCain's focus on that Obama still wants to tax and spend during economic downturn is starting to take hold. Combine that with Pelosi and Reid tax and spend rhetoric and that is scary for many people. (I found it especially humorous that McCain called Obama "Senator Government" last night. Probably, a pet name he often uses often camera.)
BTW: McCain's economic plan was well-presented and well-received on Tuesday by many economic analysts. It was simple to understand and people could see direct application to their lives. This could be having some impact.
Or it could be the ACORN problems which seem to be growing exponentially. Or combination of both.
Obsessing about Jackson? If it was not for Jesse Jackson (Democratic Primaries 1984-1988 and his push for subsequent DNC rule changes) Obama would not be where he is today.
Obama had/has much bigger problems with his 20-year friendship with mentor Reverend Wright than Jesse Jackson statements.
Also Obama himself said he supported an undivided Jerusalem in front of a Florida Jewish audience, and then backtracked within days. So now Obama's own words are being used against him by the McCain campaign.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:41 AM
Just a thought for boomwhatever and anyone who wants to compare primaries to the general election--it's a fool's game.
Any "trends" gleaned over the course of the primaries are meaningless to make inferences from, since each state is unique. (For instance, it happened in the 2008 primaries that a number of states Obama was not disposed to do well in because of voter demographics were loaded toward the end of the schedule--OH, PA, WV, KY. This does not mean that he "faded" as time progressed.) Additionally, primary voters are vastly different than general election voters.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:42 AM
Just the very fact that McCain backers are defending Jackson proves the point.
And speaking of using his own words against him, the new Obama ad is priceless. This one will run in all the battlegrounds.
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:57 AM
As I said state polls more important then national polls. BTW why is Sarah Palin in Bangor, Maine???? Sarah is now just an albatross on McCain. A gimmick that didn't work. She is coming to Indiana soon. Like most of her appearances she is going to Noblesville. Which is north of Indianapolis in a very wealthy, republican stronghold. Base was never going to vote for Obama. McCain needs Independent voters. So he picks a dubious VP candidate who only attarcts the base?
Posted on October 16, 2008 11:59 AM
Just a brief note: after processing all the data up to Super Tuesday inclusive, it was pretty predictable how well Obama would do in the remaining states (which Nate Silver proved by doing it). Accordingly, any "trends" people thought they were seeing in the remaining contests were actually just a product of the way the states happened to be ordered.
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:04 PM
Hey... orange24... Supporting McCain has NOTHING to do with my statements about Jesse Jackson.
FYI: You need to read up on the 1988 Democratic primaries (Jackson came in 2nd to Dukakis) and convention (Jackson used his support to get new rules on how delegates are allocated that favored minorities.) I stated a solid FACT, which you choose to disregard because you want to slam McCain.
FYI: Obama threw Jackson under the bus quite some time ago... way back in the primaries when he was compared to Jackson and therefore was "diminished." It is no surprise that in the eyes of Obmanation, Jackson is also fair game.
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:24 PM
Hey... TJIRISH34... Maine is one of two states that allocates some of its Electoral Votes by district (2 districts in Maine = 2 EV votes may go to different candidates.)
If anyone depended on the polls for who would be elected, Gore would have been President.
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:29 PM
Actually, I believe Bush narrowly led Gore in the average of final polls.
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:35 PM
Traditional likely voters O 49% McC 47%
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:51 PM
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