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US: Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen 10/17-19)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/17-19, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 50, McCain 46

 

Comments
sunnymi:

Rasmussen Poll Release Schedule for the Day:

At noon Eastern today, new Presidential polling data will be released from Virginia. At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new results will be released for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.

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jonny87:
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muckinello:

STATISTICALLY TIED!

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Timdicator:

Huge day today for state polls from Ras.

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maddiekat:

Some of you are to wrapped up in these tracking polls. Do not fear Boomcrap will be having another temper tantrum by Wednesday. I have said it for months and I will be proved right on November 4th, unless something major happens this is a 5 point race.

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GrampsMcCain:

So the race is tightening. According to the RCP average the race hasn't been this close since 9/30. I am pessimisitic, a boomshak like prediction this puppy will be tied by this weekend. Ras will be tied by Wednesday.

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billwy:

@muckinello:
It may be statistically tied, but considering this just bounced to 4 points from 6 yesterday, I think it is likely that is still a modest national lead for Obama. Those 6 state polls are huge today.

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Napoleon Complex:

Those McCain/Palin supporters are a classy bunch.

http://www.wral.com/news/state/story/3771147/

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muckinello:

@sunnymi:
At noon Eastern today, new Presidential polling data will be released from Virginia. At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new results will be released for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.

I expect to see some tightening but still Obama leads in VA, CO and possibly MO. Will not be surprised to see McCain lead in OH still. NC is a toss up for me.

This based on the tightening at National level, with Obama loosing 2-3% from his peak. But then again, I may be wrong, after all my name is not Boomshack.

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WOW!

RCP poll of polls:

10/14: O +8.2
10/20: O +4.8

Cut the lead by 42% in 5 days!

(In Johnny Cash voice)
I hear the train a comin'. It's comin' round the bend.

Hide your razorblades now!

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sunnymi:


There will be an NC state poll out today from PPP as well.

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freedomreigns:

A tightening of the race is inevitable as the undecidededs begin to decide.

Most, being 75%ish percent will go McCain. Having said that, I don't blieve it will be enough. I still think Obama will win with 51% of the vote and 280-300ish EVs.

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WhereisMitt:

R2000 for New Hampshire: O+7

According to RCP site.

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jonny87:

what were people saying about providing obama doesnt make a spectacular gaffe he'll be fine...when you know the media loves soundbites saying 'spread the wealth' was pretty dumb.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Ah, another exciting day on the national tracker rollercoaster brings another day of GOPer elation and, tomorrow, another day of GOPer depression. How will I entertain myself when this election is over?

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GrampsMcCain:

State Polls for Ras Predictions
Virginia
O 49
M 48

Colordao
O 50
M 46

Florida
O 49
M 48

Ohio
M 50
O 48

NC
M 49
O 46

Mizzou
Obama 50
McCain 48


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muckinello:

@billwy

My points are sarcastic. I believe that Obama lead is actually larger than shown because I am optimistic of his chances to 'enlarge' the voting pool (more minorities and younger voters) and maybe the pollsters underestimated (or misunderestimated as Bush would say) this factor

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JoeThePlumber:

Dems: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

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sunnymi:


@muckinello, the last 10 days or so we have seen Obama's national numbers drop a bit but he seems to be holding on to the battleground states well....obviously it is to do with the ground game in those states including his offices and advertising.

I think I concur with what you are expecting to see from the Rasmussen state polls today.

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masselo:

@GrampsMcCain:

How did you come up with these numbers?

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ThatMarvelousApe:

I see boomshak has a new sockpuppet. How exciting!

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jonny87:

muckinello,

sure he probably is further ahead. but all the media has to go off is polls and looking at rcp we are not far from a mccain comeback narrative.

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zotz:

ABC news poll on Acorn and Ayers

"More challenges for John McCain: Likely voters overwhelmingly reject his effort to make an issue of Barack Obama's association with 1960s radical William Ayers. Fallout continues from McCain's pick of Sarah Palin for vice president, with 52 percent saying it weakens their confidence in his judgment. And on optimism, it's Obama by 2-1."
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6067150&page=1

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boomshak:

A 2 point move to McCain in one day on Rasmussen is quite a leap. Rasmussen rarely makes moves of more than 1 point in a day. He is definitely the "turtle" of the trackers.

This leads on too believe that McCain has a VERY good day of polling on Sunday, perhaps even Obama +1 or +2.

Anyway, who knows. Head fakes have been the norm in this election cycle.

Still, pretty significant tightening in last week or so. As many of the moonbats here have forgotten, this was supposed to be the time when Obaam was blowing McCain away by 15 or more points.

Anyway, who knows - crazy race.

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BarackO'Clinton:

I will say this again!

"The race is tightening"

and

"McCain is winning"

are two entirely different arguements.


What we are hearing from the McCainiacs:

Two weeks ago: "We are losing."

Today: "We are stil losing."

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!!!

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Halperin reporting that McCain had just $47,000,000 at the beginning of October. He will likely be forced to abandon his "Pennsylvania strategy" to desperately cling to "his" firewall as Obama appears poised to outspend him 4 or even 5 to 1 in the final two weeks of the campaign.

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mandalorianarmy:

The reason the RCP average went down so dramatically was because the LA Times (O +9) and the CBS/NY Times (O +14) rolled of.

All that is in the average now is the tracking polls.

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jonny87:

gramps,

agree with most of your numbers apart from OH. think mccain may have a bit of a larger edge.

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jamesia:

Actually, if you look at the breakdown for the last week or so, John McCain is doing a good job shoring up the support of his own party. Obama has been holding at 50% or so for almost a month now. McCain is just reconsolidating the GOP.

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boomshak:

@zotz:

ABC news poll on Acorn and Ayers

Let's be honest with ourselves here. Can we REALLY trust a poll done by ABCNews 2 weeks before the election?

Of COURSE they want to get the message out that AYERS IS A DUMB IDEA. Why? Because they want McCain to shut-the-f*ck-up about Ayers. look what has happened in the polls since McCain started pounding on the Ayers issue.

From here on out, just look to the polls done by unaffiliated independent pollsters who have a reputation to protect.

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mysticlaker:

New Hampshire Research 2000 Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7


http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081020/BREAK/810200299

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DTM:

As others have noted, and in fact I have noted before, the RCP average dropped a large amount yesterday because all the remaining non-trackers from last week were dropped from the average.

Of course we won't really know if only having the trackers in the average makes a difference until the next round of non-trackers comes out. But as I suggested before, it is hard to be confident of trends in a poll average when the underlying poll mix is changing so much.

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Inkan1969:

Honestly, an ABC poll is infinitely more trustworthy than a post by Boomshak. Comparable to George Washington vs Richard Nixon. The reaction to the debate proved beyond any reasonable doubt that the Ayers garbage was a dud with voters. It seems to me that McCain has minimized the Ayers talk in recent speeches.

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mysticlaker:

Boom,

I've said this week, and will say it again. It is impossible to expect a 10 point lead going into election day. The country is too divided. What we'll see is a 4-5 point lead popular vote going into the GE and that is plenty. The red states are going to get redder. The blue states are already saturated at their max (see 2004 results), and the battlegrounds will move in all sorts of directions the next two weeks.

If you can for once say how McCain gets to 270 I will be in your debt...

Do you know that Kennedy won with .1% over Nixon, and got 303 electoral votes? That is why you have to look at the whole picture.

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mandalorianarmy:

What really matter is all of those Battleground polls coming from Rasmussen today.

They should be very telling.

Another thing to note, people are starting to vote already. I will be voting today in Florida. If Obama is up by 5 points now, it may be too late for McCain.

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jonny87:

mandalorianarmy,

the media isnt too big on nuance. to them obama was over 8 clear a week ago, now hes less than 5 ahead

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GrampsMcCain:

I am not boomshak's sock pupet just an Obama moonbat who get's nervous when Ras tightens as much as it did on a day when Obama was supposed to get really good press. IF O can stay at 50-46 or better then I will breathe a bit easier.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

With R2K and Zogby showing Obama gains and Diageo's shift entirely accounted for in a 2-point party ID shift towards the GOP, it once again appears that we have another day of nothing significant happening on the national level (of course, if I were the liberal equivalent of boomshak, I would insist that Obama is surging), no matter how desperately people arrange and cherrypick numbers. As Rasmussen himself says in today's article:

"Still, from a broader perspective, the race remains very stable. Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day for twenty-five straight days while McCain’s total has stayed between 44% and 46%"

This, of course, is all irrelevant. Today's state polls will determine who has cause for celebration.

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fed:

The NH poll shows Obama gaining 3 points from their last poll

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jonny87:

...and the networks may narrow the party id gap when they next release polls to play into a comeback narrative.

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PortlandRocks:

Boomshak does anything you say EVER ring true? HUGE Obama slide remember? LOL Haven't seen a STATE POLL YET to indicate this.

1 hr 13 min. to RAS VA poll. Then at 6PM EST a bunch of RAS polls including NC, FL, OH, CO, and NV! This will put an end to any "slide" argument if Obama holds are increases his lead in these BG states.

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mysticlaker:

I have a request. Can everyone not respond to Boom until he lays out a path to 270 for McCain? I need to see someone make this happen and boom seems like he has the wisdome to do this.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@anyone

What is McCain's path to 270? I we take all of the states that are at least +7 for O it looks like he is sitting on about 277 EV's. That means that there are no less than seven seperate states he can win to take the Electoral College.

What is the McCain staff trying to do to turn that around? If they can't flip PA (which they are down double digits), then they have to flip VA. The problem with that is that they are also down in FL, CO and MO any of which along with Kerry +IA +NM give O the win.

That obviously leaves out states like NV, OH and NC but all of those states are really just piling on at this point. Where does McCain make his stand? How does he win?

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BarackO'Clinton:

National trackers become less significant every day.

All that matters are state polls - which continue to show Obama with a comfortable path to 270.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

If I were boom, I would pray that the networks continued to oversample Democrats. A 'tightening' will increase the sense of urgency and amplify Obama's vastly superior GOTV operation. McCain's best shot is to "sneak in" with a lazy electorate that reflects Gallup's LVI.

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muckinello:

As for me, as long as Obama is 51% in all battleground states, I am fine with it.
And actually, with what he has in the bank, it is enough that he wins ONE of the following:
NV-CO-MO-FL-NC-VA-OH-WV.
And he is leading in most of them (albeit within the margin).
For all the talking we did the last two weeks one thing did not change: McCain path to victory is virtually impossible

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ThatMarvelousApe:

McCain has to flip Pennsylvania, and the word in PA is that he is considering abandoning both CO and VA to pour everything into the Philly suburbs (and praying that FL, MO, and NC hold).

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Stonecreek:

@zotz:

THanks for the link to the ABC poll. As a person who ran a number of campaigns in years past, it is easy to see when a campaign is in a terminal strategic rut. McCain's signature issues (Ayers, experience, taxes, et. al.) are only playing to the voters he already has and who aren't going to move to Obama under any circumstance. But all of his issues, by about a 55-35% ratio, fall short with the independents and other persuadable voters.

Rasmussen has been asking as a part of its state polling if voters believe that a tax hike on people making more than $250k would be good or bad for the economy. The "good" is running better than 50% and the "bad" is running around 35%. Similar numbers hold for "Ayers". If McCain's various issues each appealed to a different 35% or 40% of the electorate then they might be coupled together into a winning strategy. The problem is that the same people who don't like taxes don't like Ayers, etc., etc. He keeps appealing to the same "base" voters while Obama holds his own base and scores with swing voters.

While Bush proved that you can win (or at least prevail) in the electoral college with a half-million fewer votes than your opponent, getting less votes to win is hardly a sound strategy.

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zotz:

boom-
I was never one to claim that Obama would win by a landslide. You put way too much faith in the national polls. To say ABC has an agenda and doesn't care about their rep is loony.

You sir are a MOONBAT!

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freedomreigns:

@ThatMarvelousApe:
"McCain has to flip Pennsylvania, and the word in PA is that he is considering abandoning both CO and VA to pour everything into the Philly suburbs (and praying that FL, MO, and NC hold)."

That will NEVER happen. It would be suicide.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@ThatMarvelousApe

Yeah I agree that is one strategy, but even if he is successful he'd still have to hold onto VA and CO or Obama is sitting at 243. This means that if O wins FL or OH + NV he still wins.

It looks like McCain is climbing an EC cliff. He's just defending too much turf and a few points in the national polls isn't going to help him much at this point. Why are the pubs still acting like their guy is coming back from the dead when O is in the home stretch and their guy has fallen on the track? Just looks like they can't add.

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SoloBJ:

@ jonny87:
I agree with you about the media with regard to the national polls tightening. The comeback story can be spun resulting in some momentum shifting back to McCain. Also, the "spread the wealth" statement has resulted in the ongoing news coverage of "Joe the Plumber" that seems to be helping McCain. I believe that statement was taken out of context but it appears to be a gaffe.

Also, with Obama losing 2 points in RAS' daily tracking poll today, I expect to see some tightening in the state polls they release today.

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NorthernObserver:

I expect O's #s to go up over the next day or two, for two reasons: 1) the powell endorsement will be more fully felt, and 2) all the cries of "socialist" will be old news. McCain's charges -- whether he accuses Obama of being an Arab, a terrorist, a liberal elite, or a socialist (what's next) -- have an initial impact, but then settle down after a couple of days.

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DTM:

Without knowing, I suspect the McCain strategy boils down to this, assuming Iowa and New Mexico are basically lost causes:

(1) First, get the national numbers back to even or better;

(2) Second, hope that means most of the Bush states where Obama is currently leading in the polls come back to McCain;

(3a) Pull off close wins in all the remaining Bush states; or

(3b) Lose one of the remaining Bush states (e.g., Colorado or Virginia) but win in Pennsylvania.

And while I am as skeptical about 3b as most people, I did just realize that PA is one of the few battleground states where Obama underperformed his primary polling (by about 5%). So, maybe they think if they can get closer in general and Obama again underperforms, PA is a possible win despite Obama currently being ahead double digits.

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Keep VA Red:

McCain is not giving up on Virginia! I was at his rally in Price William County on Saturday and one hour after he opened the gates, the line was still at least 3/4 of a mile long and three abreast! There must of been 75,000 people there ... and that is in the "communist" part of the state to quote Joe McCain!

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PortlandRocks:

75,000 MY ASS. God can you people look for the Silver Lining? ROFL

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PortlandRocks:

Folks. You cannot compare PRIMARY polling to the general whatsoever. It was Dem Vs. Dem. Has NOTHING to do with the general. Last time I checked Hillary killed Obama in Michigan, New York, etc. And hmmm they're still overwhelmingly for Obama.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Is it just me or does the Republican party seem mathmatically challenged? They can't add the numbers at their rallys correctly, they can't figure out how economics works, and they seem to forget how to get to 270.

And they want to talk about no child left behind, YIKES!

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Keep VA Red:

There are McCain signs starting to pop up all over N.Va. which was supposed to give the state to Obama ... not on the side of the road either in people's lawns! It's great!

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BarackO'Clinton:

On the new Ras numbers coming out today, remember gang, Obama only needs to win one of these states.

Here are the most recent Ras numbers/National Average

VA O+3/O+6.8
OH Tie/O+2.8
NC Tie/O+1.3
MO O+6/O+2.5
CO O+7/O+6
FL O+5/O+3.2

Obama need one of the above. McCain needs (as they said in Karate Kid Part 2) “All Six!”

Even if the Ras numbers “tighten” it’s hard to see how McCain “surges” to victory.

Good Lord, I’m not getting any work done.

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PortlandRocks:

muckinello Colorado and Virginia are not "within the margin." Obama is more than 5 points ahead in both states, in fact, VA he has a polling average of 8.

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Keep VA Red:

None of you chumps were there. You don't know how many people were there. They started letting people in 3 hours before he spoke and were filing people in through six security gates. When he started speaking there was still a 1/2 mile line outside that hadn't made it in yet. The people were packed in like sardines. And that doesn't even count the multitudes that gave up on the wait and left. The GOP is very alive and well here in N. Va. whether you socialists like it or not!

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SoloBJ:

@ BarackO'Clinton:

Are those the numbers RAS is releasing later today or old numbers?

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Viperlord:

I really hate to tell you this, but that rally was estimated to be 8,000 to 10,000 people. Lol can the GOP exaggerate. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/18/AR2008101801510.html

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Keep VA

Yeah yeah yeah, I'm supposed to believe your anecdotal evidence over every media outlet and pollster in the country. I know, I know, they are all in the tank for Obama and want him to win...

I realize that Republican's (especially those of faith) don't seem to believe in hard science and education but that doesn't mean that the rest of us don't. I'll take whatever you are serving sir with a side of FACTS. Thanks.

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Viperlord:
____________________

Viperlord:

Turn VA blue!

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Keep VA Red:

Dwarf ... please link to me to any media outlet estimating the size of the crowd at that rally ... I certainly haven't seen any.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Those are from the last Ras poll.

I don't see CO, MO or VA moving much but we will see!!

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OneAngryDwarf:

BTW if you would like to see what a 100,000 people really look like you should go here:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/18/obama-rally-in-st-louis-d_n_135826.html

but I'm sure that someone just photoshopped those pictures and that really the rally was just over 5000 people. I'm just putting it out there so you can decide.

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Ryguy:

too much good news for obama to get worried about polls tightening. raising 150,000,000 in september, getting endorsed by powell, which hasnt been reflected in the polls yet. a crowd of 100,000 in st. louis. yeah, hes in good shape.

2 weeks to go

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OneAngryDwarf:

See Viperlords post...

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SoloBJ:

Thanks BarackO'Clinton. Something tells me the numbers will be closer this time but we'll see.

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orange24:

May have missed the mark on that 75,000 crowd estimate in VA. From the Washington Post:

"This is a must-win state," McCain said. "Joe's dream is so many Americans' dreams, to all own a small business that will create jobs in his community. And the attacks on him are an attack on small businesses all over this country." His words resonated with the partisan crowd, estimated at 8,000 to 10,000.

You were close though...

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OneAngryDwarf:

So I take it you were the fire marshal at the VA rally eh Red?

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Viperlord:

If you quintuple the amount of people that were estimated, you have about 40,000. Barely over half of what Keep claims.

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orange24:

@KeepVAred
Oh yeah, here's the link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/18/AR2008101801510.html?hpid=topnews

By the way, I would certainly hope that McCain hasn't given up on VA. Even his VP pick can figure out that if he doesn't win back VA, this thing is totally over.

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Viperlord:

The link tries to make you sign up for some reason, but if you Google "McCain rally in Prince William" it's right at the top.

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orange24:

Rats this one only estimates that VA crowd at 7,000:

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/1/5/115183651.html

Damn liberal media is now under-counting McCain crowds. Will they stop at nothing?

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NorthernObserver:

The money O has raised really tells the story, probably better than the polls. People actually had to send the guy money! Voting with $$$; lots of $$$ apparently. Thus lots of votes.

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Viperlord:

In fact, all Obama needs is Kerry states + IA and NM + CO or VA and he wins. That's not taking into account his likelihood in other states such as OH, FL, NC, and MO to name a few.

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OneAngryDwarf:

This whole thing reminds me of when O was talking to a crowd of like 200,000 screaming Germans and McCain was seen in the dairy section of a supermarket.

Yeah its like that all over again...

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Viperlord:

In fact, the Washington Post is the highest estimate I've seen so far, so you can't even claim bias from them, lol.

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richardkreed:

Several have asked, how can McCain possibly win at least 270 EV? Here is one way: Not overwhelmingly likely, but quite possible, even without VA, if race continues to narrow.

Obama wins Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Virginia.

Other red battleground states, in the end, come back to GOP.

Minnesota (gettin' close) flips to red.

McCain 271 EV

This Barr voter would laugh for a week if that happens, just watching the Left go nuts.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Viperlord

I'll se your +CO or VA and raise you one NV+ND.

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Viperlord:

Fail. The likelihood of MN flipping red is almost zero, and Obama's EVs still outnumber McCain's if I'm counting correctly.

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BarackO'Clinton:

MN ain't going anywhere.

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Viperlord:

Ignore the last part of my last post, silly me. Either way, MN isn't going anywhere.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Well the math works, but I don't think MN is any closer than VA at this point so I'm not sure that the state is really in play.

A for effort though that is the most interesting idea put forward in a while.

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Viperlord:

Logical fallacy: He said Obama wins the Kerry state. MN is a Kerry state.

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Dan:

To oneangrydwarf,

You wanted to know McCain's path to 270, try this: ND, IN, WV, MO, NC, OH, and FL - all likely. Then he would need NV, CO and VA - these are the hard ones. If he loses one of those, he must win MN - less dem every year. Forget PA, it's not going to happen. He has support in NH, and NM is next door to AZ, not to mention the second distric in ME. So barring an outbreak of particularly nasty weather in key dem precincts in big battleground states, the EV map is looking quite blue.

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Viperlord:

Logical fallacy: He said Obama wins the Kerry states. MN is a Kerry state.

____________________

Ryguy:

i really do hope that mccain puts a lot of his energy into PA and MN for the final 2 weeks... that would be awesome.

do republicans really think theres a chance that either will go his way?

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richardkreed:

Well, for MN, let's wait and see. I'll have to recheck my interactive map to see if I have miscounted, but it ain't over 'til it's over, is my point. Based on comments at my (very diverse) little restaurant, potential McCain voters, for whatever reason, are publicly very quiet. But very angry, esp. at the media. Does this affect polling results? Who knows.

Certainly, the odds favor Obama, and I would not bet large sums of money against him.

____________________

I think the key to Obama's victory is the fact that he's not afraid to into those traditionally deep red states in order McCain on defense.

A smarter move that might have worked earlier in the campaign would have been to put Obama on defense in some high EV deep blue state, like CA.

This might not win him the state, but it takes away resources from critical BG states.

In sort, if McCain did what Obama has been doing, he might have a better shot at winning the election.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@DrMummy

The problem with an R going into CA (or NY for that matter) is that it is soooooooo expensive to advertise there. It really is one of those situations where you are throwing good money (and lots of it) after bad. CA is very blue and to make a dent in that you'd have to have a lot more money than McCain got through public financing.

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Billy Chunge:

VA by Rasmussen: Obama 54; McCain 44. Game over

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DTM:

Rasmussen now has Obama +10 in Virginia, 54-44. As he notes, Obama was just +3 last week, but Obama is massively outspending McCain in Virginia (and I suspect the "real Virginia" stuff didn't play well).

Anyway, that is not good for McCain's map, to say the least.

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NHBlue:

I think NH will hold for Obama. The governor is so popular that I bet 70% of the population couldn't name his republican challenger. Former Gov Jeanne Shaheen is likely to unseat Sununu (R Sen). A good % of NH GOPs are from families that have been Republican since Lincoln campaigned here (today's RINOs in other words). I doubt if Sarah P or the accusations of socialism are winning many votes here.

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illinoisindie:

And the Powell effect is going to make the Rasmussen 10pt. result hold for Obama or slide to worse for McCain. Especially in Virginia with its military families. As a moderate republican itching to get back to my “roots”, I am sooooooooo glad Powell said what most of us have been thinking. So while his endorsement will probably “help” Obama on to becoming the next president. I think its also introspectively should move the republican party away from the “right wing” menace that the party has become these last few cycles. I heard the proverbial last nail in the coffin on Meet the Press…. Anyway I hear the sigh of relief from the peggy noonans of the world. Go on you Powell welcome to the Obamacan Club. you are more than welcome

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BarackO'Clinton:

Wow a 10 point lead in VA?

Say it ain't so, Joe because this one is just too good to be true!

____________________

It's not just ads. If McCain put more of his best people and had a bigger ground game moving a couple of months ago. (Especially if he had done while the Dem primaries were still going on.) Obama would be forced to redirect resources to protect a state that he'd taken for granted.

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