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US: Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen 10/18-20)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/18-20, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 50, McCain 46

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

If people have to wait 3 HOURS + in line to vote two weeks from election day, how long will it be on November 4th?!?! You would think these states would have known the turnout is going to be through the roof this year and be prepared for it. Or perhaps there is a concerted effort to suppress the voting?? Pretty sure there's a great deal of working people that will not be able to take off on election day and wait all day to vote. My advice to anyone living in a state that allows early voting: DO IT!

Yesterday: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081020/ap_on_el_pr/florida_early_voting

2004: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94428993

"In the key battleground state of Ohio in 2004, some voters waited up to 10 HOURS to cast their ballots."

Do you think these long lines existed in Rethug leaning districts??? NO!

We need every vote to count and be counted to bring about the change that this country needs! DO NOT LET THEM STEER YOU AWAY! The Rethugs want low turnout. It's the only hope they have. They do not want your voice to be heard. Prove them wrong and VOTE NOW or on election day, but be ready to wait in long lines if you wait until Nov 4th.

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muckinello:

I would like to see this with one or two more points for Obama to feel comfortable.

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Chester:

It's quickly becoming clear that McCain is betting the farm on PA (ala Guiliani on Fl, hopefully), and is throwing everything he had into that state. I'm confused... why would he ease up on states like CO in order to play in a state 13 points away from him?

Would someone smarter than me PLEASE tell me what the hell is going on here? What do they know that we don't?

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chrisinnc:

@Chester:

I've never been to CO and don't know the state politically, but I grew up in suburban philly, and I am equally confused by that as a campaign move.

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johncoz:

Yesterday's daily weighted average for all 6 national polls was:

Obama 50/ McCain 44.3/ +5.8

For the three-day trackers, the figures were identical to yesterday:

Obama 50.1/ McCain 44.1/ +6

The seven-day graph of those daily trackers is here:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3148/2959477773_ba2999d7a9_b.jpg

By way of comparison, the spread calculations by 538, Pollster and RCP last night were +6, +6 and +5.8, respectively, so I think we can be pretty confident about that number. Whether today's Rasmussen represents an actual move, or is just part of the random walk of the polls, will only be known in retrospect.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Chester, it's a numbers game. CO is worth 9, PENN brings in 21.

The thought pattern was hinted at last night by a Republican talking head talk show host Michael Moore (name afair only) on Larry King.

The last hope of McCampaign is to hold the Bush-2004 states minus IA (7) and NM (5), that they consider lost. CO appears to them an uphill battle, so they are quietly, while denying it, are pulling out. Subtract another 9. So, that's 286 - 21. Flipping PA gives them all that back, and they do not even have to worry about NH.

It was pitched on Larry King with a straight face despite the facts on the ground/polls.

FWIW, an illustration, a glimpse into the mindset of a campaign in a meltdown.

~Latte

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Stonecreek:

ABC-WaPo has just released their new tracker: Obama 53, McCain 44 among LVs. The variation in all of these polls is how the LVs are screened; otherwise they're pretty much the same. The ones that are closer use a more traditional LV, the ones that are wider use a more liberal LV screen. My guess is that the actual lies somewhere in between.

But looking at National trackers is nothing more than a parlor game. It's still the states that count, and there just no way for that count to add up to 271 for poor old McCain.

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Chester:

@ Lattelib:

Sweet!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Chester

My theory, and it is just that a theory, is that McCain knows that he doesn't currently have a path to victory. He's behind by double digits in states with 277 EV's as of right now. Holding CO doesn't do him any good because even if he's successful he still loses Kerry +IA +NM +VA which is an Obama win.

Now if he can somehow turn PA he opens the door to a variety of scenarios where he can win. Obviously he doesn't have the resources to compete everywhere so he can't continue to defend states like CO, MI and NV so that is why they are turning to PA. It has a lot of EV's and McCain is obviously out of time and money and he needs a win somewhere to just get him back in the game.

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cmbat:

@Chester-

The McCain playbook works like this at the moment:

1) Have limited funds. Easier to fight in one state in terms of both advertising and travel time than in three states.

2) They know Iowa is lost as it has never liked McCain. They know New Mexico is lost because of the Hispanic numbers. They know Colorado is lost because it has quietly been inhabited by California transplants.

3) They believe that the middle of Pennsylvania has a much more "redneck" crowd that will respond to their campaign of subversive racism, etc. In other words, when the Reverend Wright thing was in full swing, where did it have the most impact? Not Colorado or New Mexico or Iowa. And Hillary won Pennsylvnia.

It's a desperate play, considering they also need to hold Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri to make the strategy work. My feeling is that Obama will win Virginia, Florida, and Missouri, lose Indiana, and probably just barely lose Ohio and North Carolina (NC will be EXTREMELY close). If Obama only wins one of Virginia, Florida, or Missouri, the whole McCain strategy is moot.

Oh yeah, one more nightmare for McCain in this. By going after Pennsylvania, everyone keeps saying that they are giving up on IA, NM, and CO. They are also essentially giving up on Nevada, which they don't need if they can hold all of the other states and take Pennsylvania. Unless.

If Obama wins Kerry States plus IA, CO, NM, and NV, he's down one electoral vote. With McCain basically giving up on those four states, he's almost guaranteeing Obama 268 EVs, one short. How'd you like to see Obama drop a cool $50 million in...Nebraska...to steal the one EV there. I don't personally think it's going to be that close (I've been saying that Obama would get 306-311 EVs for months). But, this move by McCain, while it makes some sense given the reality of their situation, really gives Obama the chance to pick his path, and my guess is that Obama will look at three or four solid paths...and take them all with his money advantage.

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1magine:

PA Muhllenberg numbers are posted:

53-41. Very very few undecideds left. 7 million plus voters - REPEAT 7 million voters. Most in the cities and immediate suburbs all outside the 'T'. Do the math - that's 84,000+ voters Sydney needs to switch in the most rural part of the state. And in less than 2 weeks. Good luck with that.

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Commander_King:

Lets just say McCain does flip PA...he still has to defend several other states...NC,VA,Ohio,Florida,Missouri..etc etc etc.

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thoughtful:

@stonecreek

Yes I agree and you now have the 3 averages running basically on +6% Obama say: 49.7% to 43.7%. Johncoz is doing a grand job looking at this from Sydney!

Looking forward to Carlita's numbers too!

The polls look incredibly stable in reality.

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1503er:

Seems likely that McCain's internals are painting a much different picture of PA than we see.

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cmbat:

@Chester-

Sorry, I clicked a mouse wrong. If McCain doesn't actually win Pennsylvania, Obama wins with just NM, CO, and IA. I was thinking that if Obama took Virginia, which looks solid, and lost Pennsylvania, then IA, NM, CO, and NV would put him down by 1. It actually puts him up by one.

The more you look at it, the more you realize that McCain is just screwed.

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Commander_King:

McCain's strategy of getting that 1 Maine EV looks shot too.

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Chester:

@ 1503:
What's your evidence of that? How can their internals show 13 point possibility? That;s a point a day until election day!

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DTM:

My read on their strategy is not that they have given up on Colorado per se, but rather that they have recognized they need at least a Plan B in case they lose Colorado, which may well end up being Plan A as we come down to the wire.

And to that extent I think they are obviously right--they have to give themselves some other way to win beside merely holding onto Colorado, even if it is a long shot. And when you look at the map and factor in things like Obama's performance relative to his polls in the primaries, Pennsylvania does look like the best bet to counteract the possible loss of Colorado (not a good bet, but the best among bad bets).

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hou04:

INDIANA (PPP)

Obama 48
McCain 46

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OneAngryDwarf:

@cmbat

Yeah what he said. So even if McCain flips PA and Obama wins the rest of the Kerry states +NM +VA +CO +NV (all of which McCain has left except VA) then O still has 270.

That is a very bad spot for McCain to be in. I expect we will see the good Rev. Wright here in the next day or so and that push on that is going to be STRONG!!!

McCain has to turn some of these pseudo-southern states back to him and scare up the latent racists in PA to vote against their own best interest.

If you thought it was ugly now, give it a few days.

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thoughtful:

"Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now say that Obama is a better leader than McCain while 42% hold the opposite view. That’s the first time all year that Obama has held the advantage on this question.@ Rasmussen Reports 10/21/08

Game over

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deeznutsrepubs:

Hey

joethetard/boomshat/kipcrap/boscrap & other repub trolls-

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

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sunnymi:

PPP: Obama holds a small lead in Indiana
Barack Obama 48
John McCain 46

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Indiana_1021398.pdf

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fed:

If McCain is really choosing that path to victory he cant afford a surprise in ND, MT or even Georgia. Early voting for Obama looks very good in GA. The Obama campaign hinted that they will start campaigning hard there

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s.b.:

The Pennsylvania tracker shows a 10 point spread. It is however averaged over a week. That's right folks, it's a seven day tracker. McCain was down by 16. So, we can assume that the actual number polledm, lets say last night shows a much tighter race than 10 points, lets just say 5 points for the sake of the discussion. Around 5 points can be achieved in 2 weeks.

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Chester:

@ hou04:
If it's O+2 in Indiana, than it's tied in Fl (ala PPP teaser yesterday that O was doing better in Indiana). Fl and Oh seem to be the casualties of the "Joe the plumber bounce", the former of which surprises me. Hopefully all O's activity there yes and today will make a diff.

Does anyone know if he's going to send Gore to Fl; would nicely remind everyone to get out the vote!

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s.b.:

Sorry it's a five day tracker, but obama was 16 points ahead on the 16th, the first day of this track and now its +10. Same story. it's a lot closer than 10 now.

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boomshak:

JOHN MCCAIN ON FIRE IN PA:

He sure doesn't look defeated.

P.S., Lord but Joe Biden f*cked up hard core. Thanks Joe!

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ericsp28:

My theory is that McCain's internals are telling him that Obama's support in PA is soft. In other words, people flocked to him during the economic crisis because they trusted him more with economic policy, but other social factors might cause them to be leery of voting for Obama. Remember that in the Dem primary, it was in the run up to the PA primary that the racial undertones got really nasty, and Hillary ended up winning PA by a fairly comfortable margin. The situation is not completely analagous though because Hillary already had a strong advantage in PA before the campaign got so nasty. McCain does not have the same advantage in the state.
However, his campaign is in desperate straights right now, and PA is probably his best chance at turning a large blue state red, even if it is a long shot.

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1503er:

Chester,

I don't have evidence of a campaign's internal polls and neither do you. But obviously it's plausible that the McCain campaign sees a different picture of PA than we do. I don't buy into this "the McCain campaign is dumb" mantra. I'm sure they see that there's a shot they have at winning PA. PA was a hell of a lot closer in 2000 and 2004 than it appears today. In the end I'm sure McCain knows that it won't be a 10%+ spread and feels he could close the real gap that exists.

And Obama winning VA is a fantasy. Kerry was up by 10 points in NM on 10/20/04. Yea, Kerry won that state. HAHA.

There will be a shock of epic proportions on Election Night. It'll be ugly.

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oicu:

chester, McCain is using a strategist/pollster guy called Duhaime. His previous client was Giuliani. 'nuff said. Never (mis)underestimate the power of human stupidity. That's why he's spending all this time and money on PA. Which makes it that much easier for Obama to win CO, VA, NC etc.

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OGLiberal:

@thoughtful

Other Rasmussen internals also look very good for Obama. (I'm a subscriber) He leads among indies by 2. He only trails McCain among male voters by 2. He trails by 1 among white female voters. His very favorable is at 41% (v. 25 for McCain). He leads McCain in the "certain to vote for category", 44-41.

@s.b.

Given the amount of time both campaigns have spent in PA, I think the race there is probably more like a 6-7% Obama lead, not a double digit gap. However, it could be more given the large number of new Dem voters registered this year in that state.

I think one big reason the Obama campaign has spent a lot of time in the state is because they got burned there during the primaries. And McCain is there a lot because, at this point, it's the only large blue state he even has a slim (very slim) chance of flipping.

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sunnymi:


Based on the voter registration statistics here are the final Party IDs and demographics in FL this election:

Democrats - 42.0%
Republicans - 36.1%
Others - 21.9%

White - 69%
AA - 13%
Hispanics - 12%
Others - 6%

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Chester:

@ 1503:
"VA is a fantasy"
You're talking out of your ass; I could just as easily say "McCain winning Montana is a fantasy." Same spread.

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fed:

What happened in PA, is that McCain lost support. He went down to 38%. It seems he is gaining ground among his former supportes. Obama has been steady at 52 %

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sunnymi:

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden: 47%
McCain/Palin: 41%
Undec 8%

--After opening an 8-10 pt. lead late last week, Obama's lead has narrowed to 6 pts. Obama has a 7 pt. lead (49-42%) in the battleground states.

--McCain has gained 4 pts. among white men since last week (10/14), and now leads Obama among this group 53-36%. Obama's 1pt. lead among white women (44%-43%) is virtually unchanged from last week.

--On the issue of the economy - the #1 concern for 65% of LV's - Obama holds a 14 pt. lead (51-37%).

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/18-20 by FD, surveyed 791 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.


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thoughtful:

John McCain tries another Hail Mary.

PA!

Sure the Obama folks got to take it very seriously. Circle the wagons there and hit McCain even harder in the high tarif states ie Florida etc. Continue to Consolidate the gains VA, NC, IA, IN, OH - Rust belt policy makes WV more difficult for McCain especially with a quick rally or 2. Western strategy CO,NM, NV.

I really do like Georgia - 390 EVs.

Time to turn the screws!

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fed:

O +2 in Indiana, bad news for McCain

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1503er:

Chester,

Obama will not win VA. It's a fantasy. You can chose to believe it now, but in 14 days you're gonna say, "Damn. Wow. Just wow. I guess 1503er was right."

I wonder what all you rah rahs are going to do when McCain wins the election. The meltdown will be insane.

And then we're going to be in a world of hurt in this country for at least 4 years. I wonder how long it will take for the shock to wear off.

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1magine:

**********************************************************
PPP IN VOTE IS UP: O48 M46

92% FIRMLY COMMITTED.

WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR IN 2004: BUSH 52% KERRY 38%

Best internal cross tabs of IN I have seen this election cycle. Scary firmly commited number for Sydney. He needs undecides and O soft support to break 70-30 in last 14 days.

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Dan:

I think the McCain campaign thinks they can use "Joe the Plumber" in Pa as effectively as in OH. Don't brush this off. This is gaining momemtum, and the McCain campaign knows it. Rasmussen is showing strong support for Joe in the $40k - $100k income range. This could harm Obama more than anything else in the entire campaign. McCain doesn't need a race issue, when he can promote an anit-socialist one. The media has picked up on this, and it could spiral out of control in the next two weeks.

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Justin:

"...lets say last night shows a much tighter race than 10 points, lets just say 5 points for the sake of the discussion. Around 5 points can be achieved in 2 weeks."

Hell, let's just say, for the sake of discussion, that McCain is up by 20.

One 5-day tracking poll showed PA as a ten point race, so you're assuming it's five simply because the previous 5-day tracking poll showed it at 16? Seriously? That's the way things work in your head?

Why are you so desperate for a crotchety old man with a bad temper and no understanding of the economy to be POTUS?

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jonny87:

@OGLiberal

what percentage of dems and reps is obama winning?

@sunnymi

you got a link for that?

disappointed with AAs, they make up a much larger chunk of the population than 13%

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Viperlord:

1503er must be LIVING a fantasy, or is just unable to read. Obama is going to win VA handily.

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thoughtful:

1magine

I'd like to see another Ann Selzer poll for Indiana. It's been over a month since 538's top rated pollster had Obama +3% there!

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WhereisMitt:

Obama is wasting his time with Georgia and West Virginia. He needs to concentrate on Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania, especially, from now until November 4th.

Kerry barely won Pennsylvania and if there is a "blue" state that could flip, it is Pennsylvania. There are McCain/Palin signs popping up in the Philly suburbs. They are definitely making a push here.

I don't think even the Obama campaign believes that he (Obama) is up by double digits in PA, so I would assume that they have been operating as if it is a tight, single digit race.

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Chester:

Does anyone know when the new round of Quinnipiac comes out?

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cmbat:

@1503er-

Sorry man, Virginia is a lock at this point for Obama. You guys just don't understand the force of the ground game there. It's probably one of his three best.

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fed:

Quinnipiac normally releases their polls on thursdays

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Boris_Dieter:

McCain has no choice but focusing on PA. If Obama is in fact going to Hawaii to deal with a very ill grandmother, any effort to get even further down into the gutter (e.g., bring up scream'n Rev Wright) will likely backfire outside of PA's Confederate, god-fear'n, gun-tot'n region, and turn off more folks in suburban Philly and Pittsburg, as well as rile up even the few AA's that might be sitting this out. Of course, this will get closer, but a good ad with some nifty quotes from Colin Powell's mouth about the GOP having moved off the Right-Wing cliff, targeted to suburban and women voters will kill the Palin/Mccain duo. This thing is over.

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Mike A.:

Yeah I have to admit I was in an Obama office last night and it was packed with volunteers. Their ground game is pretty impressive.

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PortlandRocks:

Do you McCain supporters feel good about giving up on CO, NM, and IA and putting your entire campaign into a state where you are down 8-15 points depending on the pollster? ROFL. WE ARE LOVING THIS! Desperation is setting in!

Good luck in PA:)

RCP Average 10/11 - 10/20 -- -- 51.7 40.7 Obama +11.0

Morning Call 10/16 - 10/20 600 LV 4.0 52 42 Obama +10
Susquehanna 10/16 - 10/18 700 LV 3.7 48 40 Obama +8
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/13 516 LV 4.4 55 40 Obama +15
Marist 10/05 - 10/08 757 LV 3.5 53 41 Obama +12
Strategic Vision (R) 10/05 - 10/07 1200 LV 3.0 54 40 Obama +14
Rasmussen 10/06 - 10/06 700 LV 4.0 54 41 Obama +13
SurveyUSA 10/05 - 10/06 653 LV 3.9 55 40 Obama +15

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Boris_Dieter:

And according to my reports, Obama's efforts in PA are now focused on making sure that the ground game is implemented when the time comes.

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PortlandRocks:

Holy God. MCCAIN DOWN 2 in Indiana!:) 1400 sample!

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1magine:

PA Muhllenberg numbers are posted:

53-41. Very very few undecideds left. 7 million plus voters - REPEAT 7 million voters. Most in the cities and immediate suburbs all outside the 'T'. Do the math - that's 84,000+ voters Sydney needs to switch in the most rural part of the state. And in less than 2 weeks. Good luck with that.

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Saxa:

Obama may not win VA, but 4 years ago there was one Kerry sign up in my town of Leesburg, VA. Now Obama has a 2-1 lead in signs (at least). It is an entirely different environment. Now, I may not live in REAL Virginia (I can see it from my house though), but our votes still count the same as the people who do live there. This was the 7th fastest growing and highest household income county in the country.

The thoughtful Powell endorsement of Obama and indictment of McCain/Palin does play well here. Also, if you read David Brooks, there are a lot of "Patio Men" here as well. This is a very different state than Ohio. I think Obama will lose Ohio, but have a hard time seeing him lose here.

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Ryan in MO:

Omaha??? I swore I saw a local poll a few days ago somewhere that showed Obama ahead in that CD. There would be another EV.

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1503er:

PortlandRocks will be checking into the loony bin on Nov. 5th.

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Viperlord:

Barring a amazingly impressive performance from McCain while campaigning in VA, or some Earth shattering event, he is very unlikely to win VA.

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Why isn't anyone talking about this lattest CBS News / NY Times poll: Obama is up by 13%!!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/20/opinion/polls/main4533712.shtml

Republicans say "Drill, Baby, Drill"!

I say " Landslide, Baby, Landslide"!

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OneAngryDwarf:

So I wonder if the GOPers will attack Obama while he is visiting his sick mother. Might not be the classy thing to do but that doesn't seem to bother them very much.

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OneAngryDwarf:

oops I meant grandmother, not mother.

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Boris_Dieter:

A QUESTION FOR EVERYONE:

What happens when the troops for Obama's ground game encounter the GOP storm troopers and rent-a-mob characters meet in places like Ohio and Florida. The Dems aren't going to go quietly like the previous times. Particularly in the Florida region, it's possible that some very ugly and dangerous scenes could develop. I don't believe African Americans, for example, are going to sit around idly tolerating voter suppression efforts by crazed anti-Castro Cubans or the usual GOP voter-suppression gangsters. It's not a pretty scenario.

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PortlandRocks:

1503er I PROMISE to be here at this site Nov. 4th. The question is..will you troll?

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1503er:

LOL! Patio Man!?

Is that a nice way of saying soft-handed wussies who pay someone to change the oil in their cars and has a gardener cut their grass?

So I guess the billyboys are voting for McCain then?

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Boris

Once again you've hit on something there. I think that all of the divisive campaigning has everyone worked into a fever pitch. All you would need is a M. Bachmann type character to start throwing around some insults and voila, bloodbath.

Really scary stuff.

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1503er:

Yea I'll be here. But neither of us really know until then, right? And frankly, I don't care if you're here or not. Your delusional giddiness is neither entertainment or an annoyance. So I couldn't care less either way.

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johncoz:

@1503er

Opinion is cheap. The data at this stage says Obama will win PA and VA. That's what counts.

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DTM:

A couple thoughts:

(1) Just to emphasize a point I suggested above, both of these things could be true:

(a) McCain's best chance to offset losses in states like Colorado or Virginia is flipping Pennsylvania; and

(b) McCain does not have a very good chance of flipping Pennsylvania.

(2) It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that Obama has an excellent chance of winning Virginia. For a variety of reasons it was a relatively strong non-Kerry state for him to begin with, and on top of that the McCain Campaign has really done some self-destructive things in Virginia.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@1503er

Why are you so bitter? Yesterday you were in here concern trolling for Obama and now you're a die-hard McCain supporter?

Sheeesh...

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Boris_Dieter:

I can tell you that things are getting very heated up. AA's are convinced that somehow this is going to be stolen from them. They feel that they've stood by the whitest African-American imaginable. They feel that Obama has had to suppress or stuff down any semblance of being black, and they've accepted the fact that Obama is fairly conservative. They're proud nevertheless and they see the huge conceptual turnaround that having a black man as president will be for black families trying to raise children to aspire for the best of life. The stench of the GOP campaign and the massive effort to belittle and criminalize Obama's ground game by demonizing ACORN and by distorting the registration fraud story makes AA's really nervous. They are getting paranoid, only they've got much better reason to be.

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1503er:

I'm a diehard McCain supporter?
You people are clueless.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@1503er

So you're just an asshole, my mistake.

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BridgeportJoe:

My read on their strategy is not that they have given up on Colorado per se, but rather that they have recognized they need at least a Plan B in case they lose Colorado, which may well end up being Plan A as we come down to the wire.

One thing that nobody has really commented on is the stark difference between undecided/persuadable voters in swing states east and west of the Mississippi. In the east, they seem to be blue collar Reagan Democrat types. In the west, they are more affluent soccer mom types. Which is good and fine for McCain, except he has to win all of the swing states, and the (negative, racially-tinged) message that will attract the undecided/persuadable eastern voters will affirmatively repel the western ones -- and vice versa with the libertarian, anti-socialist message that would appeal to western swing voters.

I think that this more than anything explains the decision to quasi-abandon Colorado. It's not that it isn't relatively close. It's that if McCain is going to win Ohio, Indiana, Florida, maybe Virginia, etc., he's going to have to get very, very ugly. And this is toxic in Colorado.

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1503er:

You're really pathetic. Now I'm an asshole just because I chose to take a pragmatic and self-loathing look at Obama's chances? Man, this site is so militant. So robotic.

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Viperlord:

Except that your totally denying reality and almost every trend and poll in your so called "look". In other words: Back it up or get out.

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Napoleon Complex:

@1503er:

You will be very old or dead before another Republican is elected President. Obama will win both VA and NC and this will be a major re-aligning election.

Why are you wasting your vote on McKinney? Her favorables are lower than Palin's--and that's saying a lot.

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thoughtful:

@BridgeportJoe

Its a good observation I'm not sure that that strategy plays well in Virginia or Florida.

Rust Belt, Its up for grabs - McCain's age and erratic behaviour is the deciding factor.

I really can't see McCain winning PA, personally I think about 5% Obama on the night. Landslide elsewhere

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thoughtful:

@1503er

There are some Obama supporters on this site that should be ashamed of themselves.

If you want to present a deluded mis guided view or opinion that is your right. Who are these aseholes that want to deny that right they are no better than the people they claim to deplore.

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1503er:

I'm not wasting my vote. I live in CA where I can afford to vote for her. The reason is because I'm a liberal and I like the Green Party's platform. I'd like to see them get enough votes to have an impact on the next president / congress to at least talk about some of their issues. I know it's a pipe dream but if the Greens could ever get around 10% of the popular vote a la Perot's Reform Party, that would be great.

So I think people in deep blue states should vote their conscious.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Look, assume whatever you want about PA and VA, folks. Disregard the polls. Fine. Your grandma's second uncle's husband had a dream about McCain winning VA. Irrefutable evidence. Whatever.

None of that really matters, even if true.

McCain's got WAY too many holes in his dikes. GOP walls are crumbling all over: MO, NC, VA, OH and FL. And that's ON TOP of IA, NM and CO where even McCain himself woke up and smelled the coffee.

Now McCampaign is appearing to put all their eggs into PA basket. Let them. Let they try to flip a double digit lead in two weeks and prove us all wrong. What about the rest of the aforementioned states meanwhile?

Obama's got game in ALL of THEM. Despite what "morning" Joe Scarborough says, Obama does not need to focus on FL and OH and forget the rest. He's got enough money, ground game and surrogates to do EVERYTHING.

GAME ON, McCain. Oh yeah, the GAME IS ON

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Stonecreek:

Folks, the fight to win the support of voters has always ended by this stage of an election. The fight now is to get YOUR voters to the polls. It's all about turnout. 100% of the undecideds can break one way or the other and it doesn't matter because they will turn out in small numbers regardless.

Now, who is at an advantage here?

McCain: Limited GOTV organization, no money to fund it, and unenthusiastic/discouraged core voters.

Obama: Massive GOTV organization, unprecedented money to fund it, and unusually enthusiatic voter base.

This is why the traditional LV models understate Obama strength. Also, the more negative/nasty McCain gets, the more fired up the Obama base gets and the more money they give and the more they turn out to vote. Just ask Michelle Bachman who magically made her opponent $700,000 richer with a single TV appearance.

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Knyght:

I'm told that there is no early voting in PA, which may help explain why McCain is focusing on it. Makes it easier to close the gap and win in a squeaker than somewhere which allows early voting, yes? I agree that it's a long shot, but stranger things have happened.

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DTM:

@BridgeportJoe

Excellent insight. The only thing I would add is that a similar conflict is likely playing out even within certain states. In PA, for example, what might work to drive up McCain's numbers in rural areas (your Reagan Democrats) could well backfire in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philly (your soccer moms).

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

BTW your homegirl (aka M. Bachmann) has been saying that she doesn't think that ALL liberals are Anti-American.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/21/michele-bachmann-i-never_n_136445.html

Does she not realize that there is this new technology called "video." I feel so much better knowing that someone like this is watching out for our best interest.

/sarcasm

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gymble:

@1503er

What I don't get is why you're so convinced that VA is just like NM four years ago. Sure, Kerry was up by 10 in one poll in late October (Zogby, if I'm reading the graph right), but he was down by 7 or so in a whole bunch of polls after that (also Zogby).

a) Zogby is a kind of a crappy pollster, so it's likely that the "up by ten poll" was just an outlier and b) Obama is ahead in EVERY recent poll (from an assortment of pollsters). The last poll where McCain was ahead is from late September. Given the historical aspect, I wouldn't say that VA is out of McCain's reach yet, but it's hardly a "fantasy" to think that it will go for Obama. There's a big enough spread that it's even colored dark blue on this site. Two weeks is not a lot of time to turn around a fairly broad consensus among the polls.

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zoot:

1503er, I don't know what your problem is, other than an unpleasant disposition. You seem to put a lot of weight on your summary opinions, unsupported by any analysis, and reject anyone else's views. Have a nice day.

I have seen no objective data to indicate that the VA polls are out of whack. In fact, there's remarkable consistency in the trend lines, although the actual numbers vary.

From 9-1 through 9-15 (cut-offs are arbitrary) RCP reported 8 polls, no clear trend, McCain leading by an average of 2.3%. That includes a couple of SurveyUSA polls that appear to be outliers, so let's drop them from the equation. That produces an average McCain lead of 2.7%.

From 9-15 through 9-30, a total of 10 polls reported, with an average spread for Obama of 2.2%. Again, to be consistent drop out SurveyUSA with a +6, and that leaves you with 9 polls and an average +1.8% for Obama.

From October 1 through October 19, 10 polls reported, including 2 SurveyUSA polls, so drop them again, and you have 8 polls with an average +6 for Obama. No pollster reported a McCain lead in that time period; the closest was Fox at +2 Obama. In fact, the two most recent plus polls for McCain, both at +3 for him, were Mason-Dixon and ARG, both at the end of the month.


So, where is there evidence that Obama simply can't win there? Looking backwards and making judgments solely on that basis, sure, VA has been reliably GOP at the presidential level for many years. But aren't you ignoring significant demographic changes, esp. in Northern VA? Warner and Kaine have both succeeded at the state level with a pragmatic, business oriented appeal. Obama has an incredible on the ground organization, with significant new voter registration, roughly 500,000, of which substantial numbers are in the 17-25 age bracket, Obama's sweet spot.

(VA doesn't record voter registration by party affiliation, but in Charlottesville alone, there has been a surge of new voter registration, and that's no hotbed of McCain-Palin supporters.)

Any one of these polls may be worthless, but unless the same mysterious virus has infected everyone, as a group with their disparate results they clearly indicate movement towards Obama. They're further supported by factual evidence and observation.

Nothing is guaranteed, but simply making ex cathedra statements and then insulting anyone who holds a contrary view doesn't advance your argument very much.

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Observer:

1magine

"PPP IN VOTE IS UP: O48 M46

92% FIRMLY COMMITTED.

WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR IN 2004: BUSH 52% KERRY 38%"

According to RCP the result in 2004 for Indiana was Bush +20.5. It seems they have not polled enough Republicans. If their sample matched the 2004 actual vote it would move towards McCain by something like 6.5%, i.e. a McCain lead of about 4.5%.

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Observer:

OC_Manu:
"Why isn't anyone talking about this latest CBS News / NY Times poll: Obama is up by 13%!!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/20/opinion/polls/main4533712.shtml "

There were comments on this on one of the threads yesterday. This is not a random poll. It does show strong movement towards Obama but it consists of contacting people who were polled before. It is small sample for a national poll (about 500) and more like a panel.

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PJ_FFM:

@Observer

You *do* know that people sometimes tend to "forget" who they voted for the previous election if the result turns out to be not quite as desired a few years later?

To give an example (okay, it IS a rather crass one...): A lot of Germans claimed to have "NEVER voted for Hitler" - when asked if they had ever done so *AFTER* WW II. And they were quite convinced that this was the truth.

To clarify: I do *not* compare GW Bush to Hitler, not even GW Bush's voters to Hitler's voters - this is just to give an example on how the human psyche with regard to, uhm, not so pleasant memories of own (horrible) errors in the past sometimes works.

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