Daily Kos (D)/ Research 2000
09/29-10/01,08;1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 51, McCain 40
Posted on October 2, 2008 8:59 AM
OK Boom. We know Fail.
The most worrying for McCain looking at the internals +1 Men, + 3 over 60.
That has to turn for him if he has any chance. With the economy in the pisser, the men won't turn. With the Dow crazy and McCain's privatization beliefs, over 60 has turned...
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:00 AM
The trend is clear.
Obama/Biden to have 320+ EVs.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:03 AM
Even the middle age (45-59) demo broke for Obama. That just isn't right...maybe the #s are reversed? actually, changing that would bring it back in line with Ras & Gallup.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:06 AM
Obama is up by 3 points in North carolina according to the latest rasmussen poll ..mccasame is drowning
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:17 AM
51 O M 44
boom boom - i guess your theory for yesterday failed....
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:18 AM
Good article on national poll leads vs. electoral college:
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:23 AM
There is a poorly understood phenomenom related to how undecideds make up their minds. Many are waiting to see how others are going to vote. So, it really isn't the issues or the candidates themselves. These undecideds are basically followers that make their decision based on who they believe the majority of their peers will vote for. When the tilt to one side occurs there can be a cascade effect where people will make up their minds simply because they see others around tham making up their minds.
This almost happened on the Rep side during and after the Republican convention when the Reps solidified their base. In red states undecideds fell into line in support of Palin and brushed aside the misgivings they had about McCain. But in the swing states there was enormous push back against the Reps mostly due to economic issues.
That was the fatal flaw in the Rep plan. They had to make this election about character and Obama. But because of the economy that argument was pushed aside. When the election became about real issues that is when McCain lost.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:31 AM
boom, where does it hurt?
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:35 AM
Not including the GWU (i will be on Saturday) the 4 average tracker polls should average close on 8% today. Rasmussen is at 7%, this is at 11%, Can't see Gallup as any worse than back up to 6%, and Diageo/Hotline at 7.
We shall see!
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:38 AM
Probably his brain. It's tired of spewing so much crap out...Brain to mouth...Full of crap.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:43 AM
The turning point came when the Obama Campaign called out McCain and his Campaign and called them Liars. MSM agreed even FOX said that they had gone too far.
McCain lost his integrity and the TRUST issue and has just gone downhill further over the economy, the suspension, and the debate.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:44 AM
"There is a poorly understood phenomenom related to how undecideds make up their minds"
Actually, I think Axelrod and Co have figured it out fairly well. I point you to the 1st debate: when Obama had McCain on the ropes and our collective instinct was to have him go for the jugular, Obama backed off. But McCain didn't in his attacks, he kept on demeaning and belittling Obama. And why Barack opened with "I agree with Sen. McCain" was befuddling even when he proceeded to actually explain why McCain is wrong.
The answer came in the CNN live instant tracker of the undecideds: the line mirrored the DEM response. When McCain attacked, both lines dipped, when Obama spoke, both the undecided and DEM lines rose in unison. Later we saw further proof of that phenomenon in the postmortem polls: CBS, CNN, et al: Obama won the undecideds and decisively so in a debate that appeared a tie immediately after the debate.
And this is precisely how Obama did it: they somehow got inside the brains of undecideds and went after them and not after us (by us I mean everyone here but marctx, boom and co). We were ALREADY for Obama. He didn't need to get us. He needed to appeal to the middle.
A simple lesson, but one that McCain camp has yet to learn. Counter intuitive to the old man's nature, but plays right into the level-headedness that is Obama.
All imho, of course.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:51 AM
Updated GWU/Battleground is now Obama +5, 49-44.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:08 AM
Here's how I'd categorize the states:
All Kerry States + IA + NM + CO + VA + NV
- These are the states I hope to see Obama win at least. The last three swing states should be Obama's highest priority, along with shoring up NH, PA, and maybe MI and MN. These states are more than what Obama needs to win, but I'd rather he campaign as if he needed all of these just to be on the safe side.
- I would not use any strategy that depends on Obama winning any of these states. A couple of weeks ago I didn't think Obama would carry any of them. But recent polls have been so encouraging that now I think there's a possibility of Obama sweeping all of these for a landslide. That would be so great.
WV, GA, MS, TX, SC, MT, ND
- Obama won't win any of these, but I would love to see him close the gap to less than 10% on Election Day. That would be great planning for the future; these states could be swing states in 2012 instead of deep red states.
The deep red states
- The rest will be deep red states for now, although AZ and AK are deep red only because McCain and Palin are the ones running.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:15 AM
Have you looked at AZ polling? It'll be a less than 10% McCain win this year...
Posted on October 2, 2008 12:17 PM
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