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US: Obama 51, McCain 40 (Daily Kos 9/30-10/02)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/ Research 2000
09/30-10/02,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 40

 

Comments
Trosen:

Not much to see here.. other than percentages are falling in-line with party affiliation and women voters. Obama had deomcrats 88-8, where as earlier closer polls had sometimes 15 or 20% defection of self-reported Democrats for McCain. It's also showing that the Palin effect on women has faded, unless last night's debate dramatically changed that.

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NW Patrick:

Yawn.

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Trosen:

I should add that in this poll, Independents break to Obama by +10, whereas earlier polls showed McCain with the advantage.

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drinkwine247:

you know what is great about this poll??????


BOOOOMMMMSMMMACK

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Halidai:

@drinkwine247

Aw, leave poor boobsmack alone. He can't help being born that way.

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NW Patrick:

All this talk about HOW MANY people watched the debate and that somehow favors Palin. Check this out from Nielson Ratings. What was the #1 market for viewership for last night's debate? * The Baltimore market had the largest TV audience, with a household rating of 59.1, you know, the big conservative area that it is:)

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angrytoxicologist:

Poor boom. Maybe there'll be a UT and ID poll out tomorrow to cheer his day. Of course, it could turn out that BO is only down 8-9 like in MS-TX and every r-winger would go into cardiac arrest.

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angrytoxicologist:

@ NW Patrick. However, 8 of the top 10 were in battle ground states. On BO's side, Biden may have collected a few independents, but Palin's non-failure helps keep the R door-knockers knocking on doors.
I predict that the second pres debate viewership will be lower than the first. The ratings for the pres and VP debate were 32-45 nielsen, respectively. After hoping for drama and tuning in to see if the candidates are credible, I doubt there will be much more enthusiasm.

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Basil:

angry

I suspect you're right about the next debate viewership. Palin's non-failure should keep D's from getting complacent, too. Also, the level of mistrust about R election tactics is too great for any D to slack off now.

I teach HS science. What's your toxic line of work?

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Guailo:

Why isn't NH blue yet?? Two straight polls logging a 9pt and 10pt Obama lead...lets go Pollster! Paint em blue! Eliminate the possibility of a tie!

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Cane Cattivo:

@NeverMetAnHonestLib:

"Non-taxpers should not be allowed to vote. That would absolutely decimate Obama's campaign. More than 30% of Obama supporters pay NO taxes and want the rest of us to support them. BYW, they make up a HUGE portion of those getting polled.

America was built on the idea that people should not have taxation WITHOUT representation. People that aren't taxed DESERVE NO REPRESENTATION, and NO VOTE."

1. Logical error:

"No taxation without representation" means "If you pay taxes, you have to get representation"; it does not mean "If you have representation you have to pay taxes". Paying taxes is a sufficient condition for representation, but not a necessary one. You are committing a pretty basic fallacy here.

2. Factual error:

If you buy a gallon of milk, or a loaf of bread, you are paying taxes. It could well be that more than 30% of Obama's voters are poor, but they still buy milk and bread, and thus they pay taxes.

So nevermet, you are a disaster in both fronts. Pobre animalito de Dios!

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Dross:

Obama landslide anyone?

Too early? Ok, I'll hold off.

But the GOP is seriously running out of tricks. First the pandering and transparent Palin choice, then trying to hijack the Dem's 'Change' message, then trying to get attention by attempting to cancel a presidential debate. All those stunts failed. And yes Sarah Palin was a cheap stunt and she did lose the debate.

Meanwhile the Dems are staying on message, rallying unprecedented ground support, staying honest and keeping the dirty ads to a minimum. All that is working, for me, and clearly for most of Americans.

I'm an independent, and it's become vastly clear to me that, and in this election, the Dems are the honest, skilled, well intentioned good guys, and the GOP are the dirty, desperate, dishonest bad guys.

Never has the choice been so obvious.

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angrytoxicologist:

@ Basil. See here, but I've been busy with a 'side job' lately so no posting.

Hey, is anyone else worried that McCain is pulling out of MI so the 527s can get dirty, nasty, and racist without him getting drug down too. Or am I paranoid?


Or is paranoia appropriate?

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boskop:

@dross

i'd be very happy if you start booking rooms in dc for obama's inauguration.


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ericsp28:

Yes, paranoia is appropriate. We are about to see a torrent of sleazy ads released against Obama. Some will come directly from the McCain campaign, but the worst will be from the 527s. They are going to rehash the ads that worked last summer and they are going to make up a bunch of new stuff. It doesn't even have to be factual, just sensational.
It is a proven strategy for the underdog to employ and I have no doubt they will do it.

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HogsBreath:

@ericsp28

I agree with your thoughts about McCain and company going negative.

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Timdicator:

Obama's getting hit hard next week ... he just needs to stay on message.

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boskop:

i was polled recently and preferred to not respond just for fun.

you might want to start looking at this kos number running about 10% of calls.

if you are such wonks, there's a lot of voters embedded in that number that you might want to define...

also, why dont one of you add up all the polls to date since the start and for all the pollsters and tell me what the cipher is for the grand total of people canvassed to date.

i bet they're running out of people who are fresh. you might want to think about that folks.

which is why i told them to take a hike.


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Basil:

McCain's DesMoines snit fit, plus Palin's idiotic answers to Couric (and her admiration for Cheney in the "debate") should provide Big O's people (or 527's) with some ammo to use against the Slime Monster. Not to mention actual facts.

There are so many pro-O brains on this case that weren't around when Kerry got slimed that the usual R lies may get less traction.

I'm looking for McCain to do a 180 on the bailout and try to claim it's a Dem/Bush idea that won't work. Personally, I think Peter deFazio's (D rep from OR) version would have been a much better bill, but maybe it's not too late for some of his ideas. The D left and the R right opposed the bailout for different reasons, and it may be an albatross for its supporters.

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JCK:

Negative ads during the summer took two months to bring Obama from about +5 to about even with McCain by the Dem convention.

Now, there are significantly fewer undecided voters, much less time, and a larger Obama lead.

I'm not saying that negative ads can't work, but it's not going to easy on the McCain side. They may be too little, too late.


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Pat:

On Intrade, Obama just hit the 70% mark. I think this is the first time he has been this high. It must be because of the reaction of the markets to the passing of the bail-out plan.

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Connor:

@boskop

Aren't you the person who said you and your class get on here and laugh at all the "liberals?"

Can you please tell me what school you're talking about and what class?

Please?

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the reason MC has not gone neg yet is b/c BO can play the "Keating 5" card. It was all over the news for weeks. It would really be a bombshell in light of what's going on with the economy. I think God is looking out for BO. This is W's punishment for saying "God told him to run for office. And a karmic attack for stealing the 2000 election.

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Trosen:

Yea well McCain has no choice but to go as negative as possible. Problem is Obama is far less vulnerable than he was just a few months ago. It could totally backfire on McCain, and he knows it, but he has no choice at this point.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

This poll is not only laughable, but utterly ridiculous!!

The Daily Kos lol? YEA..OK!

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1magine:

70/30 on Intrade - leading in FL, NH, NV, OH - OK. Nail the top on and shovel the dirt. It's over.

"...You can blow out a candle, but you can't put out a fire, once the flames begin to catch the wind will blow them higher!!!!..."

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Ryan in MO:

"sotonightthatimightsee:

This poll is not only laughable, but utterly ridiculous!!

The Daily Kos lol? YEA..OK!"

Yep, just like Rasmussen that also has BO at 51%, they just happen to give Sydney a slight R advantage to get him ONLY 7 points behind.

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maddiekat:

Fantastic!

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JCK:

Nice news on NV.

If Obama has a 7.5% national lead, I'd be surprised if he loses NV.

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nick-socal:

It makes me scratch my head when the Republican ticket talks about how Obama raising taxes on people making over $250,000 a year is going to kill jobs and ruin our economy. Uh, um, er, tax cuts, er, wait what? Tax cuts will strengthen our economy? Wait sort of like they did for the last 7 years?

What?

What parallel universe do these people live in?

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drinkwine247:

@nick-socal

Dude, are you serious? The Democrats are the ones who did this! Just ask everyone's favorite Rethuglican fact-spinner BoomSpank.

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nick-socal:

Am I serious about what? Yes I'm serious about how ridiculous it sounds when McCain/Palin try to say that Obama's plan will kill jobs and ruin the economy. They say that is if there a ton of new jobs and the economy is great under Bush's tax CUTS!

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KipTin:

Nevada still a toss-up, even in the Rasmussen poll with its 4% MOE. Look how close it is....

"McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of the state’s voters, Obama by 53%.... Voters in Nevada are fairly evenly divided as to which candidate they trust most when it comes to the economy."

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Paul:

Electoral Maps

Pollster.com: Obama 250, McCain 163, Toss-Up 125 (NV, CO, MN, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, NH)

RCP: Obama 264, McCain 163, Toss-Up 111 (NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL) ... difference between pollster.com and RCP are MN and NH as to whether they are Obama or toss-up

CNN: Obama 250, McCain 189, Toss-Up 99 (NV, CO, MO, WI, OH, VA, FL, NH) ... difference between pollster.com and CNN are WI is a toss-up not Obama, MN is Obama not a toss-up, IN is McCain not a toss-up, NC is McCain not a toss-up)


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Paul:

Adding Rasmussen and a conclusion:

Electoral Maps

Pollster.com: Obama 250, McCain 163, Toss-Up 125 (NV, CO, MN, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, NH)

RCP: Obama 264, McCain 163, Toss-Up 111 (NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL) ... difference between pollster.com and RCP are MN and NH as to whether they are Obama or toss-up

CNN: Obama 250, McCain 189, Toss-Up 99 (NV, CO, MO, WI, OH, VA, FL, NH)
... difference between pollster.com and CNN are WI is a toss-up not Obama, MN is Obama not a toss-up, IN is McCain not a toss-up, NC is McCain not a toss-up

Rasmussen: Obama 264, McCain 185, Toss-Up 89 (NV, CO, OH, VA, NC, FL) ... difference between pollster.com and Rasmussen are MN is Obama not toss-up, MO is McCain not toss-up, IN is McCain not toss-up, NH is Obama not toss-up

Conclusion: Based on everything I have seen and my analyses of polls adjusted for 2004 demographics from exit poll (which may understate Democratic turnout this year, but not factoring that in), I am most comfortable with Rasmussen. At the end of the day, I believe MN (by a relatively small margin) and NH (by a larger margin) will be Obama states and MO and IN McCain states (by small margins).
This means Obama has to win one state from six possible: NV, CO, OH, VA, NC, FL. As I pay attention mostly to posts which focus on data and stories with links, I noted with interest a post from "faithhopelove" which suggested McCain would pull out of NV. That decision with this assumption would concede the race to Obama, as tie goes to new house, as any reasonable projection has more states in new house Obama than McCain. In this analysis therefore, McCain has to win all six states.

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The Dude:

Daily Kos for 10/4: Obama 52 - McSame 40.

Obama picked up a couple of points from women from the previous day and McSame lost women. Can you say Palin effect?

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Paul:

Saturday - Oct 12 Daily Kos - Obama +12

Adjusted for 2004 demographics from exit poll:

By region: Obama +14 (note +37 in NE, +18 in Midwest, +17 in West, -11 in South).

By age Obama +10 (note +35 under age 29)

By gender Obama +13 (note females +26, males -2)

By party id Obama +4 (there is no ideology factor with Daily Kos to crosscheck against party ID)

By race Obama +9 (note Latino +46)


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boomshak:

MCCAIN PICKS UP 3 POINTS ON RASMUSSEN!

But wait you say, Rasmussen today has McCain only +6 and he was +7 yesterday, that's only 1 point!

Yes, but to get to +6 after being +7 for two days, Obama had to poll only +4 yesterday. Thats a 3 point gain!

I predicted a 2 point gain on Rasmussen yesteday and we got 3!

Here we go, the Palin Effect is in motion!

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