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US: Obama 51, McCain 41 (Daily Kos 10/19-21)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/19-21,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 41

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

10 Points has a nice ring to it! Seems to be where most polls are leading to right now.

Landslide Baby Landslide!

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deeznutsrepubs:

For all you concerned about how rass is low for obama:

(from 538)

"Track Record: Rasmussen rates as a strong pollster overall and did particularly well in 2004, though less well in this year's primaries."

- Rass (like many) is having a hard time estimating obama's support. Turnout and ground game will launch the landslide this election.

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mandalorianarmy:

If we can just get a Ras move today, I will be happy.

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Thatcher:

NC Early vote totals as of 5:20AM today:

PARTY Total
DEM 354,999
LIB 309
REP 170,408
UNA 103,592
Total 629,308

AGE Total
18-30 68,355
30-44 111,870
45-59 188,410
60+ 260,673
Total 629,308

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mysticlaker:

RAS 51-45...O+1 M-1

Not a prediction - the real number.

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mysticlaker:

Hotline

47-42 M+1

This won won't get back to the trends until they correct the party weighting.

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plisar:

It looks like Rasmussen is starting to catch up with the latest Obama surge. Now of if Hotline and Battleground can catch up, we'd be in agreement everywhere.

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tar_heel:

Ras is the real deal, whether Republican-leaning or not. The expansion to a six point lead is excellent news and confirmation of the other polls that show movement in Obama's direction.

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Mike A.:

I still think Ras is slightly REP since they do polls with Fox but it's nice to see :)

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BOOMFAIL:

Rasmussen has OBAMA up 6 today!! That's a 2 point surge in one day for Obama. Guess the McShame surge has been a giant fart.

On a side note...McShame always whines about Obama opting out of public financing and how unfair it is that Obama has generated such enthusiasm and donations. McShame should be thankful that he got public financing, since I bet that amount is more than he could have raised on his own because he is such a pathetic candidate.

Note to McShame: your slimeball Nukeyouler attacks have backfired, you betcha!

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE!!

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Thatcher:

@mysticlaker:

It would be nice for Hotline to do a little more pushing of their undecideds ... They and Battleground are the only pollsters with double-digit undecideds.

Also:

http://www.anchoragepress.com/articles/2008/10/21/news/doc48fe45ae7c782835927877.txt
Alaska
Ivan Moore Research
Begich (D) 46, Stevens (R-Inc) 45
Begich +1

Berkowitz (D) 51, Young(R-Inc) 43
Berkowitz +8

McCain 53, Obama 42
McCain +11

Note - End of August, it was McCain 54, Obama 35 (+19 McCain)
2 weeks ago it was McCain 55, Obama 38 (+17 McCain)
In just two weeks, McCain -3 and Obama +4

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decided:

Ras O +6

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johncoz:

Move by Ras is the nail in the coffin. I was the only thing left for GOPers to cling to. From our very own boom ....

boomshak:

Anyway, for the next 3 weeks, watch Rasmussen.

Posted on October 13, 2008 8:08 AM

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BOOMFAIL:

@Thatcher
Thanks for the details in your above posts!

Great news in the early voting for NC, and it looks like Alaska is finally starting to bail on the McShame/Pain ticket. I also heard rumblings that even AZ is showing movement away from the ticket. While I know Obama won't win either AZ or AK, it is amazing how even those states are getting turned off by the slime.

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OGLiberal:

Obama +12 in R2K's Tuesday polling.

Ras internals - Obama back in the lead among indies, 47-45. Tied among white women, 48-48. 2pts behind among men, 49-47. Leads among women, 54-42. Very favorable, 41-26. Certain to vote, 44-41.

What is up with Hotline and GWU/Battleground? Seems like Hotline changes their party ID weightings every day these days. That will make for a less than consistent polling pattern. I have no idea what Battleground does. Rasmussen and R2K weight by party and stick with those weightings on a day-to-day basis - Rasmussen updates weightings weekly. You may disagree with their weightings make it makes for much more stable and consistent results with little wacky movement in either direction.

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MNLatteLiberal:

I think this latest movement for Obama in the national polls (Pew, Gallup, NBC, CBS) now backed by Ras will translate in FL and OH going back to light blue in about a week and through the time it really counts with any luck.

And since there is already early voting going on in these key battlegrounds, we should see the actual votes reflecting that throughout the next 13 days. Obama could not have been re-peaking at any better time, imho.

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muckinello:

Good news but I am still worried about PA. It owuld be a disgrace for me personally if PA will not partecipate in the Obama landslide!

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Thatcher:

@Boomfail -

There are some high-level rumors that since Obama has a nice warchest for this campaign - that in this sprint to the finish the campaign will be ratcheting up operations in AZ (as well as GA).

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sunnymi:


I think all the 3-day tracking polls today will reflect the Powell endorsement effect fully.

Boomshak who earlier in the week was saying that Ras rarely showing a 2 point jump has to eat crow once again with this +2 jump in favor of Obama.

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Northeastern Republican:

MN - not so sure i agree with your assessment. I think at this point in the game any of the toss ups aren't going to go light blue or light red for that matter. unless there is a drastic change in a slew of state polls i think we are just too close to election day to see that kind of shift. we're getting close to seeing how this all plays out and we'll see how the states end up falling in less than 2 weeks.

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BrookLynda:

We are now beginning to see polls which include this past Sunday and Monday, when the Colin Powell endorsement became known. Powell seems to have pushed the last remaining fence-sitters into Obama's yard.

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sunnymi:

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden 47%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 8%

- McCain now leads men by 8% -- his largest lead among them in more than a month. In the survey completed 9/19, McCain also led men by 8%.

- Enthusiasm continues to grow among supporters of the GOP ticket. 54% of McCain voters now say they are enthusiastically supporting the AZ Sen., up from 45% one week ago (in the survey completed 10/14). Among Obama supporters, enthusiasm has also climbed, 4% to 69%.

- McCain now carries only 20% of Bush disapprovers; a week ago, he pulled 24% of these McCain Mavericks. Look for more on this Keys To The White House group in today's Latest Edition.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/19-21 by FD, surveyed 782 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 38%R, 17%I.

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mysticlaker:

Battleground 49-47

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102208_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

From my spreadsheet a very good mccain day will drop off tomorrow, and we should see a big **** to Obama.

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Napoleon Complex:

It appears that McCain's PA strategy is to suppress votes in the Pittsburgh and Philly areas and go after the rural voters in between. Without early voting, Election Day in PA could turn into a real nightmare. I bet the GOP goon squads will be out in force in the urban areas to wreak havoc and create long lines at the polls. Given McCain's propensity to gamble (e.g. Palin) this could be his final Hail Mary. Nothing else seems to make sense.

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tjampel:

Three polls ...Obama is 3 for 3 thus far.
Obama +2 in each, including Ras. This is the
first day reflecting polling that's completely post Powell endorsement.

The only tightening I see is the tightening of the noose around the corpulent necks of the GOP, who have ruled this country with a greed and arrogance matched only by the robber-barons of the 19th Century....goodbye and good riddance to the political world as we knew it. Demographics are a changin too....and in a few years states like Texas will be dark blue.

The important thing is not who's in power but whether the Democratic party can work directly with the American people to chart a new course for this country. That means reorienting our thinking in a profound way, especially as regards Global warming and energy independence; it also means putting more money in the hands of the middle class right now and.....yes...taking back some of it from pampered executives (making them suffer marginal tax rates that Ronald Regan imposed on them....yeah...I know...socialism)

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sunnymi:


Battleground is @ Obama +2 today
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102208_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

Since this is a 5 day tracker once the 15th and 16th fall off the tracker it will be up along with the others. Look for Friday's number on this one.

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DTM:

Interestingly, the day of polling that originally moved Rasmussen from +6 to +4 on 10/20 is still in his average today.

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jeepdad:

Anyone have the morning tracking numbers for PA?

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tjampel:

Obama increasing his margin by 2 points in each is what I meant, obviously

The numbers are
+10 Daily Kos
+10 Zogby
+6 Ras

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angrytoxicologist:

@ Thatcher

You make an interesting asumption that Battleground and Hotline would fall in line with the rest if they pushed their undecideds. This may give a better, not worse, view of the electorate. Or, at least, just a different one. See

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/21/pollsters_are_mostly_to_blame/

for an example of how a slightly different question gives you a different answer.

Also note that Obama's surge over the past month has taken away more points than their were 'undecideds' from that time. Mathematically impossible. So that means that there were more actual undecideds that polls report. Despite their ID problems, it's worth thinking about what this means. If only the big polls would do the two step question and report both numbers!

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BOOMFAIL:

I want to thank McShame again today for his fantastic judgement. He is in New Hampshire right now. Was in PA yesterday I believe. This guy is nowhere to be found in the states that he absolutely needs to win like FL, IN, VA, NC, etc. My only conclusion is that his campaign figures wherever he campaigns, his numbers just go down further, so they want to keep him away from the states that they need the most so as to keep his Nov 4th embarrassment to a minimum.

He's STILL talking about Joe the Plummer. Enough already. Joe the Plummer needs to meet Jane the Janitor and get a room.

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE!

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mysticlaker:

PA Morning Tracker:

Obama - 52
McCain = 41

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Chester:

On RCP the IBD -poll is the only one left showing Obama at 47%; all other but one are 50% or above. If the IBD comes out today at 49% or higher for him, expect the 50.6% av to skyrocket to over 51%.

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OGLiberal:

Hotline's party ID breakdown, as reported today (it changes frequently):

41D/38R/17I

Fail.

Does anybody know how GWU/Battleground weights by party ID? It has to be close to even, maybe even closer than Hotline's. Heck, Zogby uses only a +2 Dem advantage (at least that's the last I heard, perhaps he's updated it) and he's got Obama ahead by 10.

The 5-day aspect of the Battleground tracker explains a lot. Plus, they skip weekends. Not a great methodology. You miss people on the weekends who may not be home during the week. Those people - not matter what side they're on - matter. But I think by doing so, you tend to skew towards an older (ie - retired) crowd.

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1magine:

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/19-21 by FD, surveyed 782 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 38%R, 17%I. A 3% PARTY ID ADVANTAGE? ARE YOU JOKING? 2006 EXIT POLLS DON'T COUNT? 2008 REGISTRATION DOESN'T COUNT? 2008 EARLY VOTING DOESN'T COUNT?

USE RAS PARTY IDS AND IT IS O+8 - SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR TO ALLOT OF OTHER POLLS.

I say this everyday Diaego and Battleground are a joke.

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tar_heel:

mystic:

Is that the Muhlenberg one? If so, that's great news and confirms that Obama is still up by double digits on a daily basis despite McCain's push.

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mrzookie:

From RCP:

Looking solid in Maine:
SUSA: O 54 M 39

and in Washington State:
Elway: O 55 M 36

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RussTC3:

Of the four daily trackers released today--Zogby, R2K, Rasmussen and Hotline--Obama is up 50.2 to 42.5 for a lead of 7.65%.

Yesterday, the average of those four trackers was 49.3 to 42.9 for a lead of 6.40%.

Obama +0.9, McCain -0.4 = 1.3 point Obama swing

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MNLatteLiberal:

@Northeastern Republican,
Well, we can disagree, but logic is that one of the very few conventional wisdoms that held in this election is of state polls following the national trends a week or so later. We've all seen it here with the convention bumps, debate bumps and so on.

The national polls started narrowing about 8-9 days ago, or about a week, roughly. Yesterday pollster.com took FL from light blue to yellow. FL was dark blue about a week ago. OH went from light blue to yellow while we were discussing where the McCain increased national support was coming from on the state level. There was a group of thought expressed here that the red states were going redder, causing this narrowing on the national level.

In actuality we started seeing the OH and FL esp. get closer in several polls to the point where they went to toss up. These are very slight movements, mind you, but the pollster formula detected the tiny shifts.

Now we are seeing the opposite swing at the national pendulum. The question is once again, what is causing it on the state levels? Recent opening gaps in MO, VA and NH (et al) have to be due to something earlier - they were ahead of the national rise. So, what will this current national uptick translate on the state level?

I think that FL and OH are the most sensitive barometers to such subtle shifts, and to some degree NC. I might be wrong, granted, but the poll responses in these states in re nationals seems more twitchy to me than elsewhere, where the Obama - and I hate to use the term surge, where Obama surge has been more constant.

We'll see.

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cinnamonape:

The one thing I would be concerned about in those reports out of N. Carolina is the massive disparity with older (60+) voters and the paucity of younger voters. That should get the fire under the seats of those at universities when the over 65's have 3.5 times the turnout of under 30's. True the 12 year cohort is smaller but those are huge differentials.

So will those older Democrats still vote for Obama? How many of those are AA?

"NC Early vote totals as of 5:20AM today:

PARTY Total
DEM 354,999
LIB 309
REP 170,408
UNA 103,592
Total 629,308

AGE Total
18-30 68,355
30-44 111,870
45-59 188,410
60+ 260,673
Total 629,308"

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carl29:

The McCain campaign looks caotic, erratic, crazy. Too bad that Barack has to leave the campaign trail, but family goes first. I hope Barack's grandma gets well very soon to see her grandchild elected :-)

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Mr Average:

How can Pollster show a 10.7 percentage point lead for McCain in West-Virginia while the gap hasn't been more than 9 in any poll since February?

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OneAngryDwarf:

We all seem to be attributing this rise in the national polls as a boost from the Powell endorsement. On the other hand wasn't it Friday of last week and over the weekend that the Michelle Bachmann story broke?

Seems to me this might be a bigger story right now than the Powell endorsement and might account for some of the swings we've seen in the national polls.

I would hypothesis that the Powell endorsement might solidify poll numbers behind Obama, but he probably wasn't going to win O any new votes. On the other hand Bachmann's comments really put a jolt into people that if we elect another Republican as President then we could be looking at another McCarthy era. The fear pushes the numbers up.

Just a theory.

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tar_heel:

Now even Battleground follows suit (somewhat) for a 2 point Obama lead

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carl29:

cinnamonape,

I think that a lot of those voters 65+ are Democrats, black people most probable. Those are the ones who thought would never see the day when a black man could become president, so now they are very energized by Barack.

If you go back to 2004, Bush won the white vote in NC by 46%, Bush 73, Kerry 27. However, Bush won the +65 vote by 11%, Bush 55 Kerry 44. Guys, there are older, black people in NC :-). Every time you see a Democrat voting, there is around 80% chance that he or she is voting for Barack. The more Democrats vote the better are Barack chances.

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johncoz:

@MNLatteLiberal

While one wouldn't necessarily expect FL and OH to match the national trend, they cannot fully resist it either. If these numbers hold, then they should end up in Obama's column IMHO.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Oops, McCain just crapped his pants.

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Mike A.:

Hey mystic:

Do you have a link to the daily PA one?

Thanks!

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angrytoxicologist:

@ OneAngryDwarf

Dunno, but I can tell you this: My father (white, older, Ohioan, socially moderate, hawk) found Powell's endoresement the security he needed to vote for Obama.

Just an anecdote but it may mean something

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chesirecat47:

@cinnamonape
A great deal of those 60+ votes in NC are absentee and older folks are often the ones to vote early around here to avoid lines. While I agree the college kids need to get their acts in gear, the youngest demo should still come out come election day. Trust me, we're doing fine in NC, who woulda thought it was even in the realm of possibility just a few months ago?

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Mike A.:

doh I just found it :)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Release_10_21_08.pdf

-1 McCain

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