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US: Obama 51, McCain 41 (Daily Kos 10/20-22)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/20-22,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 41

 

Comments
deeznutsrepubs:

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK


____________________

rami:

12 days left and no inflexion.

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

I love how all the networks led with that worthless AP poll yesterday about how the Presidential race has "tightened" up, or is all tied. Why do they focus on that one poll? Because they are vapid, bored people who are easily distracted by bright shiny objects.

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Dan:

correct, Voltron:

News is more exciting when the race appears closer. so they highlight that one outlier

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BOOMFAIL:

There the liberal MSM goes again with the AP poll. That one was a bit of an outlier, don't ya think??

Double digit Obama leads becoming the norm.

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE

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deeznutsrepubs:

Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062

Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74

Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102


Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska never gets anywhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062

Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74

Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102


Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska never gets anywhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!

____________________

johncoz:

It's not such a bad thing to have an outlier like the AP poll reported widely. Stiffens the resolve even more than exhortations from the stump. Meanwhile, repulican voters will see the writing on the wall come Nov 4 and ask themselves: Why bother?

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Northeastern Republican:

hardly becoming the norm Boomfail. We have to wait to see what some of the polls with a history of reliability show today (rasmussen, gallup, ibd). I can't remember an election in recent history where the polls spread anywhere from a 1 to 14 point lead. Its actually getting somewhat frustrating.

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jlm9:

@ deeznutsrepubs

that made my morning very funny

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Trosen:

I love it. I wish the networks would run nothing but the "dead heat" polls. Gets all the Obama volunteers off their asses and keeps them working non-stop.

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oicu:

See also new quinnipiac polls out today for Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania - news is not good for McCain: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

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DecaturMark:

Big 10 Battleground polls:

Unbelievable! Some of these have to be a bit off. Not that I'm complaining!

Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

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deeznutsrepubs:

From the Q-poll today:

Florida MoE +/- 2.6
Obama 49 (51)
McCain 44 (43)

Ohio MoE +/- 2.7
Obama 52 (50)
McCain 38 (42)

Pennsylvania MoE +/- 2.6
Obama 53 (54)
McCain 40 (39)

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GeorgeHusseinBush:

New Big 10 Battleground Polls out:
http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

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deeznutsrepubs:


Big Ten poll today:

Illinois - Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana - Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa - Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan - Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota - Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio - Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania - Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin - Obama 53% McCain 40%


http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

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abraxaf:

Two new polls w/ double digit leads in Ohio? Pinch me. I still don't believe it at all though.

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OneAngryDwarf:

It is interesting that the Q-Poll and Battleground both show a double digit lead in OH today. I would have said that a +5 for Obama there was kind of the ceiling.

If these state polls keep this up we might be looking at 1988 EV numbers for Obama. 400+ EV's if things shake out right.

Of course these could both be serious outliers and not worth the telephone time they took to conduct, but we'll know for sure in the next 12 days.

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JFactor:

What the hell is going on? These numbers can't be true.

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Trosen:

Ehhh.. no. the big10 polls are pure fantasy. No way the margins are that big. But the Q polls.... could be a sign that there's a major backlash to the new wave of crazy divisiveness the McCain campaign is trying to employ. I know that even my friends' super Republican relatives in PA and OH HATE the f-n robocalls.

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Dan:

I doubt these poll numbers are accurate. However, the poll TRENDS are likely true. If these states are moving in Obama's direction at this stage in the game he has an extremely good chance of taking them.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Trosen

I hadn't thought about that. Here in AZ we don't get those damn things but that makes a lot of sense.

We might be seeing the battleground states reaction to those ugly automated calls. Wow if people hate them that much I wonder why they were so effective against McCain in 2000 in SC.

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Rames1980:

"We have to wait to see what some of the polls with a history of reliability show today (rasmussen, gallup, ibd). I can't remember an election in recent history where the polls spread anywhere from a 1 to 14 point lead. Its actually getting somewhat frustrating."

I agree the polls do seem to be a bit all over the place, but averaging them cuts the influence of the ones farther from the average. One valid way to average them would also be to omit from the average the highest and lowest spread. This way, if there are 7 polls, you'd average the 5 in the middle for your estimate on the actual spread.

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Dana Adini:

wow look at their september numbers all the states save illinois were toss ups.

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boomshak:

GWU/BATTLEGROUND OUT:

Obama: 44
McCain: 42
Undecided: 13

Race remains at 2 points. It would appear GWU/Battleground disagrees with Zogby and DailyKos.

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Trosen:

Dwarf.. because SC is.. well.. SC. And that was 8 years ago. People have had years and years of this crap now to become disgusted by it. Also, the GOP is under the delusion that the masses of independent and undecided voters are xenophobic and small-minded.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Interesting so I wonder if the Robocall technology has jumped the shark and will fade into political history.

Dare to dream, eh.

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SoloBJ:

Hotline:
O: 48
M: 43

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Northeastern Republican:

playing devils advocate: this seems like pollsters trying to bump up the rcp averages for obama. theres no way ohio has jumped to a 15 point spread. it hasnt been nearly that far spread in the last decade - all of a sudden it is over the course of a couple of days?

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mac7396:

This poll is wrong because it does not include a 44% born again/evangelical demographic. And everyone knows that the AP poll's 44% demo for that group is correct, as well as its O+1 likely voters.

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deeznutsrepubs:

poor boomshat -

pathetic tool tries every day to find the the outlier and hails it as proof of.....something....what exactly? that mccain is winning utah big? LOL. the nationals don't matter now boomshat. only the state polls. it doesn't matter if gallup has obama up by 10 or this gwu has it at 2. Only the toss-up states matter.


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Trosen:

boomshak:
"GWU/BATTLEGROUND OUT:

Obama: 44
McCain: 42
Undecided: 13

Race remains at 2 points. It would appear GWU/Battleground disagrees with Zogby and DailyKos."


And what you do.. is take that poll and throw out the rest as "outliers." What I do, is factor this poll in with all the others and come to an average.. but.. hell why do I bother with you?

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Dana Adini:

check out these REAL TIME numbers especially the ones from florida and north carolina

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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Vokoban:

I think the poll numbers are true - when you count psychology in.

No one with a sense of decency would tell any human pollster he still votes for McCain. This explains why he gets between 38 and 40% (mindless nuts without a sense of decency) at phone polls - and 44-46% at Rasmussen (automated poll where you*re not be embarrassed by talking to real people). That makes between 4 and 8% of the populace decent conservatives who are probably right now biting their own teeth out.

Hard times for these people. And I wouldn't bet on a lot of them bothering to vote this time. Absence at the polls might be their way of protesting the state of the GOP.

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bmrKY:

"Boom****:

GWU/BATTLEGROUND OUT:

Obama: 44
McCain: 42
Undecided: 13

Race remains at 2 points. It would appear GWU/Battleground disagrees with Zogby and DailyKos."

No, it would appear that EVERY POLL ON EARTH (except for the evangelical AP Poll) thinks GWU/Battleground sucks.

Quit cherrypicking polls, boomshart

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Schill:

Obama leading all Midwest states in Big Ten Battleground Poll
Oct. 23, 2008

As the race for the White House enters its final days, the Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Barack Obama holds significant leads over John McCain in eight crucial Midwest states.

The individual surveys of between 562 and 586 randomly selected registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the election in each of the states were conducted by phone with live interviewers from Oct. 19-22 and were co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. The polls each have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. The states included in the poll were Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota, home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference.

Those states were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and last month the Big Ten Battleground Poll showed a tight race in all of those states but Illinois, which Obama represents in the U.S. Senate. The first poll was taken just as the U.S. financial crisis first intensified and before the massive decline in the stock market, when McCain was enjoying his highest poll numbers of the campaign in the Big Ten and nationally.

“In September, we saw virtually the entire Big Ten as a battleground,” said Franklin, co-developer of Pollster.com. “Now Obama is clearly winning the Big Ten battleground. The dominance of the economy as a top issue for voters is the overwhelming story.”

The new Big Ten poll shows Obama ahead in every Big Ten state, including Indiana, where McCain held a slight edge in September, and Ohio and Pennsylvania, where last month’s poll results showed the two candidates in a dead heat.

Head-to-head results for individual states
Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

The poll also included a nationally representative sample of 1,014 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a 9-point margin over McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent.

“With the fundamental factors so to their advantage, this election was always about Barack Obama and the Democrats reaching a threshold level of credibility with voters,” said Goldstein, a UW-Madison political science professor. “It appears Obama has and this race has popped nationally and here in the Big Ten.”

The sample of registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the 2008 Presidential election for the state and national surveys was selected by random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phones. Cell-only households were not included in the sample.

The results of this rare regional poll -- a partnership involving eight Big Ten universities – will be featured during a 90-minute show called Big Ten Battleground: Campaign 2008, which airs at 3 p.m. CDT (4 p.m. EDT) today (Oct. 23) on the Big Ten Network.

Universities participating in the partnership are the University of Illinois, the University of Iowa, the University of Michigan, Michigan State University, Northwestern University, Ohio State University, Penn State University and UW-Madison.

For news media
View a list of faculty from Big Ten universities participating in the poll who are available to media for comment on the poll results.

Media contacts
Dennis Chaptman, University Communications, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 608-262-9406, dchaptman@wisc.edu

Jenny Price, University Communications, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 608-262-8296, price3@wisc.edu

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DocnTN:

New Big 10 Battleground results (small sample size):
I'm worried that since Indiana and Ohio results seem overly optimistic, it's really a lot closer in Pennsylvania as well...But if the results are anywhere near accurate, it's a good day in America!

Head-to-head results for individual states
Illinois O 61% M 32%
Indiana O 51% M 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

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boomshak:

@bmrKY:

Gallup dropped 2 to +5 yesterday, Hotline dropped 2 to +5 yesterday, TIPP dropped 2 to +4 yesterday.

There are LOTS of polls showing this close and getting closer.

MOST of these nutty +10 polls are being paid for by the MSM. CBS, ABC, Reuters. These are ALL in the tank for Obama.

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MancJon:

Whilst the BigTen numbers look amazing (especially Indiana!), I should point out that these are RV numbers (and potential RVs), so most likely the numbers are tighter for LVs.

Still, great numbers!

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m913:

Go take a look at RCP Election 2008 Latest Polls page—a dozen lines of Obama up by double-digits.

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maddiekat:

The Battleground poll is not out yet!

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Atomique:

The American electorate is so in the tank for Obama.

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boomshak:
____________________

truthcomb:

Hidden in the Big-10:

The poll also included a nationally representative sample of 1,014 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

That survey shows Obama with a 9-point margin over McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent.

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oicu:

@boomshak:

comspiracy theories about polls being rigged are just stupid. If anything, it's in the interests of news orgs to have the race tight, because it makes the news more interesting.

BTW, I know what your "secret revelation coming out soon" from last night is, and it's yet another piece of wingnut conspiracy theorist BS and will fall flat on its face if it ever gets any air time at all.

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mysticlaker:

Hi Boom! You okay buddy? Do you need a hug?

Have you put your money on McCain on intrade? If you believe that AP poll so much you have to do it. You will turn $1500 to $10000. How could you not do it?

____________________

mysticlaker:

hotline
O 48 - 43

+1 each

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bmrKY:

"boom****:

MOST of these nutty +10 polls are being paid for by the MSM. CBS, ABC, Reuters. These are ALL in the tank for Obama."

And Fox News is DEFINATELY in the tank for Obama.

I'm not sure if this has been confirmed yet, but I've also heard rumors that FACTS and REALITY are in the tank BIG TIME for Obama.

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Atomique:

BTW, I absolutely *love* the fact that there are polls showing the race close (even if they all still show Obama ahead) that the Repulsicans can cherry-pick. Let's let them get their hopes up for the next 12 days. It will be that more gratifying.

____________________

MancJon:

@Dana Adini:

The Georgia numbers are also VERY interesting. Nate Silver @ fivethirtyeight.com reckons that Obama could take Georgia if the African American vote is around 30% of turnout. In early voting (so far), the AA vote is 35.6%, and a quarter the number of people who voted in 2004 have already voted there this time around. If this trend holds, Georgia could be interesting :-)

I'm not expecting Georgia to go blue, but even if it comes close I think that would be progress.

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DTM:

As I noted elsewhere, the sheer number of polls being conducted this time, plus some notable challenges for pollsters (changing electorate, cell-phones, early voting, etc.) help explain the spread.

Even so, I went back and checked the 2004 polls. Around this time in October, there was everything from a Bush +7 (Fox News) to a Kerry +3 (AP-Ipsos). In the final RCP average, there was everything from a Bush +6 (Newsweek) to a Kerry +2 (Fox News). But as many have noted before, the final RCP average pretty much nailed the election at Bush +1.5%.

So, again given the sheer number of polls, current polling challenges, and the spreads we have had before, the spread right now really isn't that surprising.

____________________

oicu:

@mancjon:

I don't care if GA votes for Obama - he's going to win anyway. Just let them defeat the pig Chambliss.

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deeznutsrepubs:

Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062

Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74

Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102


Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska gets nowhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!

____________________

bmrKY:

Dear Boomshak, this is your brain:

"Obama 51, McCain 41"

This is your brain on Fox & Friends:

"INTERNALZ OF DIS POLL ALL WRONG! HORSE RACE CAMP SOLIDIFYING! WHY DON'T ZOGBYZ INTERNETZ POLLS MATCH ZOGBYZ PHONE POLL? THREE POLLS WITHIN MOE BY END OF THE DAY! THESE POLLS DON'T WANT TO LOOK LIKE FOOLS ON ELECTION DAY, SO IT WILL TIGHTEN! THESE POLLS ARE JUST TRYING TO FEED THE MOONBATS HOPE BY SAYING OBAMA IS AHEAD... IN EVERY SINGLE POLL SINCE THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER! TIED RAZE BY SUNDEE FOR DA MUH-KANEZ!"

____________________

boomshak:

Indiana O 51% M 41%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%

No way.

____________________

PS Linky.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-georgia-small-improvements-in-black.html

Nate's percentage of AA early voters is a bit dated now, but the current numbers are still above the 30% he thinks will make Georgia winnable.

____________________

boomshak:

@deeznutsrepubs:

How much do Obama's clothes cost? We have no idea because they MSM has never asked.

____________________

metsmets:

Once upon a time the blue people and the red folks held an election. Day after day, the polls showed the candidate from the blue people was leading - sometimes by a tiny margin, sometimes by a whole bunch. As the day of the election approached, the red folks went to their candidate and asked why he was losing in every poll.

He said:

"We prefer to be behind - it's more fun to win if you start from behind." and
"Our internal polling shows the race is tightening." and, finally,
"We don't pay any attention to the polls."

Well the day of the election came and everyone (except those registered by Acorn) voted and they sat around the big tree to wait for the results. And he was right! He won the election by a huge margin and all the polls were wrong and everyone was happy ever after.

Warning: this is a fairy tale!!

____________________

jamesugw:

Re- GWU/battleground...
I might be wrong but the results table (not the presentation graphic) seems to suggest that it's O48-M45 for the five-day sample. Which in a way makes sense - otherwise the two point gap remains the same, but they've inexplicably dropped to 44 and 42. Have a look - I'm probably wrong....

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boomshak:

@mysticlaker:
hotline
O 48 - 43

+1 each

Can you link us? I can't find it.

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IndyTurnBlue:

Boom, so there are none in the tank for McCain? Seems all is so biased for Liberals that the ReThugs can never do no wrong. And I dont agree with the Ohio nor Indiana, more +2 fore either thats running.

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MancJon:

@oicu:

That would be good, yes :)

PS @deeznutsrepubs:

Don't call Palin mentally handicapped; that might give her a reason for having such idiotic views. She's just an idiot.

____________________

IndyTurnBlue:

Boom, why don't you ask? You are the MEGA political junky! Mrs. Obama, her dress cost $148, a slightly less cost than Palins.

____________________

boomshak:

k, thanks.

Looks like Hotline disagrees with Zogby as well. Hey, it's only 7 points less :)

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

ANOTHER EPIC BEATDOWN OF BOOMSHAT!!!


Yeah, here's a scoop on Obama and his clothes:

http://www.accesshollywood.com/preview-access-exclusive-barack-obama-and-family-chat-with-maria-menounos_article_10226

____________________

Angus Mc:

Ras today:
052 - M45 (O +7)

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Trosen:

Angus, which LV?

____________________

Angus Mc:

Rasmussen only has the one model for Likely Voters. It's Gallup that goes all strange with two models.

____________________

Disco Stu:

Obama probably doesn't spend all that much on clothes...saw a pic last night on TV with Obama's feet up on the table...he'd nearly worn through the bottom of his shoes!! lol

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Ras spreading as well. You cannot deny the surge! Double digits on election day!

From Polster sidebar: "they need to look at how Bob Dole finished out his campaign 1996, and not try to take down as many Republicans with them as they can. Instead of campaigning in electoral-college states, Dole was campaigning in places he knew he didn't have a chance to beat Clinton, but where he could energize key House and Senate races. I think you'll find these sentiments shared by MANY of my fellow Republican strategists.'"

Perhaps that's why McShame keeps going to NH, PA, etc. If he goes to battlegrounds, he just brings the numbers down MORE. Check the Battleground poll today if you don't believe me.

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE!

____________________

political_junki:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/

Is this for real or they just want to give me a good time on my birthday?
What is going on?

____________________

mysticlaker:

angus, is that verified numbers for RAS?

____________________

plisar:

Does anyone know the voter registration breakdown by party in Indiana?

How many reps, dems and non-declareds?

____________________

maddiekat:

Does anyone know what states the battleground poll is currently polling? I know they have changed the amount of states they poll during the course of their polling. I wonder if they are now including states such as Georgia.

____________________

Timdicator:

O+7 Ras would be nice.

____________________

vmval1:

O+7 Ras 52-45

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Angus Mc:

Not confirmed yet b/c I don't have a premium with Ras, but I saw it on two different websites, one far left and one far right. I hope that's the number when it's released to the public.

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JCK:

McCain is running out of time. Boomshak may complain that polls are all over the place but it is worth noting that NONE of them is showing a McCain lead.

Unless FOX news and Rasmussen are in on the polling conspiracy for Obama, McCain is in deep, deep trouble right now.

The average lead, among all polls, seems to be pretty stable in the 6-8 point range. If that holds through election day, it will be a landslide in the electoral college.

For McCain to have any chance at all, he will need to bring the national margin down to 2-4 points, and then hope to "thread the needle" in the electoral college, holding off Obama in all of Bush states (less NM and IA) or pull off a miracle in PA.

Regardless of your opinion regarding Ms. Palin's $150k wardrobe, there is no dispute that can only help Obama, as it is taking valuable time off the clock for McCain.


____________________

vmval1:

Oh Boomshak...

____________________

sunnymi:


Happy Birthday political_junki :-)

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d3nnisbest:

Boomtard.

Please believe it's close. Stay tuned on election night with great expectations. I certainly did in 00 and 04.

I really want you and your caveman brethren to experience what I did.

So don't listen to any of the MANY poll that show insurmountable leads or the fact that national polls are meaningless at this point. Just get happy when your low expectations are met.

Just continue to apply the same high level of ignorance that you apply to your worldview and shifting political philosophy.

____________________

maddiekat:

Rasmussen; BOOMCRAPS ex favorite pollster!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Happy Birthday political_junki :-)

Happy Pollday Boomshak

That RCP latest poll day is crazy...With Obama's Wed night primetime buy, even if he loses a couple points the next few days (doubtful), he can gain them back pretty handily with a well played pitch on Wed.

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mirrorball:

Ras has Minnesota and Georgia polls out later today, which should be interesting. Not sure what time.

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tjampel:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.

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vmval1:

C'mon guys, statistical tie by Sunday.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Anyone know if there has been any polling in MN for Bachmann?? Curious if the loon has fallen behind yet.

____________________

sunnymi:

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

Audience member: Why is it that someone like my father who goes to school for 13 years gets penalized in a huge tax bracket because he's a doctor?

John McCain: I think it's to some degree because we feel obviously that wealthy people can afford more.

Audience member: Are we getting closer and closer to, like, socialism?

McCain: Here's what I really believe: That when you reach a certain level of comfort, there's nothing wrong with paying somewhat more.

Jon Stewart: That, of course, is the late socialist leader John McCain. I believe he passed away during the Republican primaries. He will be missed.

---The Daily Show

____________________

DCDemocrat:

Reaganesque!

____________________

boolean_radley:
____________________

jonny87:

georgia still going well...AAs at 35.5% with early voting accounting for 26.9% of 2004 turnout.

____________________

cambridge blue:

Boomie's predictions from last night. So far, batting avg. 0.000.

/blogs/us_obama_54_mccain_43_abcpost1.html#comment-84210

boomshak:
TOMORROW'S PREDICTIONS:
Rasmussen: O+5
Gallup: O+3 (LV's)
IBD/TIPP: O+2
GWU/Battleground: O+1
Hotline: O+3
By end of day tomorrow, there will be at least 3 tracking polls within the MOE of 3.

____________________

political_junki:


@mystck...
Thanks:-)


@BOOM:
Your predicition for RAS +5 today:****FAILED*****
it has widened, not tightened:+7
Pretty soon RASS will be double digit too
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

____________________

Lardo:

The latest Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama with a ten point national lead over Sen. John McCain, 52% to 42%. In the individual midwestern states, Obama also has huge leads.

Illinois: Obama 61%, McCain 32%

Indiana: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

Iowa: Obama 52%, McCain 39%

Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 41%

Michigan: Obama 58%, McCain 36%

Minnesota: Obama 57%, McCain 38%

Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, McCain 41%

Wisconsin: Obama 53%, McCain 40%

Said pollster Charles Franklin: "In September, we saw virtually the entire Big Ten as a battleground. Now Obama is clearly winning the Big Ten battleground. The dominance of the economy as a top issue for voters is the overwhelming story."

____________________

vmval1:

@jonny:

link please?

____________________

tjampel:

but why use Ras to measure the race when you can create a nation of evangelicals and get an MOE race in one fell swoop (with AP).

Ras (O+7) is out again, Zoby out....; Big Ten, which gave wingnuts such a hard-on a couple of months ago..OUT....Quin...OUT

Looks like GWU and AP are the wingnuts' new new "black"...for now

get a life; this election is moving predictably at the moment back towards Obama's previous peak. There was a small dip last week and that's been largely erased. His numbers in battleground states are at or near safe levels such that only a major cataclysm will reverse the course. Biden's remarks...a minor hiccup in the scheme of things. Mike Murphy and Ed Rollins know which way the wind blows....it don't take a Weatherman...

____________________

tjampel:

Boom....please give me all your stock market picks for next week so I can short sell..

____________________

jonny87:

from ambinder...

'A Republican who is tracking the data predicts that black voters will make up 35-36% of the electorate'

make up 30% of electorate.

if that kind of turnout is replicated elsewhere...

____________________

jonny87:

*AAs make up about 30% of registered voters

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vmval1:

That AP poll was the biggest load of **** I have ever seen. I don't believe RCP count it as part of their average. How do they post a result like that and retain any credibility

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DocnTN:

Happy Birthday political_junki :-)

Thank you Collin Powell! Now, let's take down that demagogue Bachmann.

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cambridge blue:

The "liberal in-the-Obama-tank MSM" really took that AP poll and ran with it yesterday. It was on MSNBC, CNN, etc.

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Vokoban:

"That AP poll was the biggest load of **** I have ever seen. I don't believe RCP count it as part of their average. How do they post a result like that and retain any credibility"

Didn't they loose it when they started to select the polls they picked in the first place?

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sunnymi:

What is amazing about the Big Ten poll of Indiana is that there is absolutely no party ID or lean advantage for the Dems yet Obama came out +10 in this poll....Something must be cooking there. When is the Selzer poll coming out?

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sunnymi:

@DocnTN, you said "Now, let's take down that demagogue Bachmann."

....And Robin Hayes (NC-8) of the "liberals hate real Americans" fame too!

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tjampel:

GA is a place where the voting infrastructure for blacks sucks and enthusiasm is high. They are voting early in historic numbers this year, I think both to ensure that voter suppression efforts don't affect them and to avoid major snags at the polls on election day. If I were black and living in GA I'd vote early for sure. Last election, with a lower enthusiasm level, there were some major bottlenecks in GA and some polls had to be kept open late. Also the Obama operation in GA has made early voting a particularly powerful focus for its GOTV effort. They want to bank the votes while the climate is right and the enthusiasm high.

That said I seriously doubt that AA participation will be anywhere near 36%. That means that may whites are simply gonna sit this one out. No way. Enough of them see Obama as a threat to warrant puling the lever for McCain even if they're not doing it with any great enthusiasm. Look for 32% AA as the ceiling. At around 36% Obama would win, as he'd only need (assuming he gets 95% of AAs) 23% of others and non-whites make up some of that, so less than 20% of whites needed, which is doable.

At 32% Obama will lose unless moderate-conservative repub whites and conservative white dems simply stay home

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mysticlaker:

There may be no published selzer poll (it's up to the right leaning paper who sponsored it and they may not publish it if it does not fall there way).

However, I believe Obama has opened up a SIGNIFICANT lead in Indiana. If he had not, he would not be campaigning there (nor would Palin or McStupid be going there). He would focus on other possible add on states like Georgia, and more time in Florida...The ground game will pull it in.

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tjampel:

Newsday has this to say about the AP poll. Also read more about restrictive likely voter screens at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
Scroll down a bit in the middle column

"an Associated Press-GfK poll shows Obama with 44 percent support and McCain with 43 percent backing among likely voters. Obama's lead was five percentage points among registered voters in that poll.

The AP poll of 800 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Experts said the unusually tight likely voter outcome was the result of a restrictive approach for defining likely voters that probably excluded many Obama supporters."

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RamboDem:

@boomshack:
Please boomshack let me know when Mccain is a head in just 1 national poll. This thing is over. You keep mentioning gwu/battleground. Did you notice Mccain is behind in that one two. People who have to point to outliers are the ones who are behind. By the way don't look at the polls look at the actions on the ground. Where is the campaign being waged? As Dandy Don Meredith used to say on MNF in the 70's: TURN OUT THE LIGHTS, THE PARTY'S OVER, THEY SAY THAT ALL GOOD THINGS MUST END. Turn out the lights boomie.

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carl29:

Oh, well, about an hour ago, Boomy was praising GWU/Battleground as the law of the land; however, the new numbers just came out and Obama is again making up ground. Oh, boy, poor boomy, at this pace, he'll need to rely exclusively on the Drudge poll :-)

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Isher:

Did they accidentally poll bizarro Indiana?

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sunnymi:

Battleground 2008 Poll Tracker
Obama - 49%
McCain - 45%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102308_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

I think once 10/16 falls off the tracker the lead will increase further. I am waiting for tomorrow's number.

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Battleground/GWU

O 49 (nc)
M 45 (-2)

according to RCP

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JCK:

How are boom's predictions from yesterday panning out?

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political_junki:

@Jonny87:
How about those early voting numbers in GA?
Really impressive:)

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sunnymi:


These 2 big poll numbers out of OH have pushed it into Obama's column on RCP:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Waiting for the same to happen on Pollster later today.

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Dan:

To all those who think this election is over, I want to add this tidbit. On October 22, 1980, Gallup had Carter leading Reagen by 3%. We all know what happened, Reagen won in a landslide (10%). The only pollster to show a large Reagen lead prior to the election was the done by Richard Wirthlin, the internal pollster for the Reagen campaign. Carter's pollster, Caddell, uncovered a large Reagen lead, but not until the eve of the election. Polling is expensive, and the campaigns have a lot more money to play with. If one candidate is spending a lot of time and money in a particular area, you better believe they have good reasons. The McCain/Palin next scheduled stops are FL, PA, MO, CO, IA, NM, IN, IA (again), OH, PA (again), and NC. Something tells me that these states are important. Noticeably missing are WV and VA.

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RossPhx:

For only the second day, Obama leads in Daily Kos among male voters.

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