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US: Obama 51, McCain 41 (Zogby 10/21-23)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/21-23, 08; 1,203 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 41

 

Comments
boomshak:

DESPITE THE BULLSH*T YOU ARE HEARING IN THE MSM, GALLUP SAYS EARLY VOTERS ARE EVENLY SPLIT!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111430/Early-Voting-Now-11-Could-Reach-30.aspx

"PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking data indicate that about 11% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted as of Wednesday night, with another 19% saying they plan to vote before Election Day. Roughly equal percentages of Barack Obama supporters and John McCain supporters have taken advantage of the early voting opportunity -- so far."

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ashley:

Yea, then the article goes on to say than Obama has MORE supporters, so this gives him a lead. You might also notice that it doesn't discuss which STATES these votes are in. McCain can rack up all the early votes in TX and TN that he wants, but that won't affect the outcome like early votes in GA and NC.

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boomshak:

GALLUP ALSO SAYS THERE IS NO INCREASE IN % OF FIRST-TIME VOTERS THAN IN 2004!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

"PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup finds 13% of registered voters saying they will vote for president for the first time in 2008. That matches the figure Gallup found in its final 2004 pre-election poll."

It is amazing. The MSM would have us believe that ALL of the early voters are Democrats (A LIE) and that new voters (young people) are swamping the ballot box (ANOTHER LIE).

We are being spun people. All patterns this year match 2004 exactly.

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ashley:

I love how you parse things. Note that there are many more registered voters than in 2004, and the large majority of new voters are Democrats.

FAIL.

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maddiekat:

Keep dreaming Boomcrap. Normally Dems get beat badly with early voting due to seniors and the military.

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boomshak:

@ashley:

Yes, but since Obama only has a 4% lead in the most recent Gallup poll, he only has 4% more early voters.

But what is this bullsh*t we keep hearing about early voters being 75% Democrat? tter nonsense from the DNC.

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jonny87:

Oct 22nd

According to the Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll, Obama leads statewide in Ohio by 52 percent to 42 percent.

In Florida, the statewide survey shows Obama with a one-point lead, with 48 percent of poll respondents naming him as their choice for president, compared with 47 percent who chose McCain

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Paul:

Zogby internals Oct 24:
Dems O 87.8, M 8.2
Reps M 83.3, O 9.7
Ind O 55.8, M 30.4
Already voted O 57.3, M 37.7
Register to vote last 6 months O 68.7, M 26.4
Males O 44.7, M 44.6
Females O 57.7, M 37.6
Whites M 49, O 42.5
Hisp O 70.9, M 22.9
AA O 94.4, M 3.2

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boomshak:

GALLUP WEIRDNESS:

Yesterday, Gallup writes that Obama leads Mccain amongst early voters by 65% to 35%. Then the NEXT day, he says, no, Obama only leads by 2.

Bizarre.

He completely contradicts himself one day later.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

DESPITE THE BULLSH*T YOU'RE HEARING FROM THE TROLLS, MOST OF THE POLLS CONFIRM MCCAIN IS GETTING HIS A$$ HANDED TO HIM DURING EARLY VOTING BECAUSE HE HAS NO GROUND GAME.

A huge surge in early voting across key states appears to be helping the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama.

In one swing state, North Carolina, Democratic early voting is up 400% in the first week, with similar patterns in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico.

Early voting is now taking place in 34 states, although votes are only counted on 4 November.

Up to one-third of all ballots are expected to be cast before election day, compared to one in five in 2004. -- BBC NEWS

Americans are turning out en masse to get their votes in ahead of the November 4 US presidential election, with a surge in early-voting Democrats suggesting Barack Obama may lead the vote tally thus far. -- AFP

Democrats are flooding the polls in early voting, local and state election figures show.

Three Democrats have voted for every Republican in Guilford County through Wednesday, and the margin is 2-1 across North Carolina. -- Greensboro News & Record

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Thatcher:

@boomshak -

the higher #'s of early voters being democrat ... come from the actual party registration of voters who have voted early .... the numbers come straight from the Election boards in each state. They aren't poll numbers, they aren't made up numbers - they are the party registrations of people who have actually turned in a ballot.

GEESH!

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sunnymi:

Early voting figures are not something DNC or anyone is making up. They are official figures released by the election officials of the respective states.

Check this link and please yourself
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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mysticlaker:

There is going to be a bloodbath on Wall Street today. Look out America.

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boomshak:

Ohio is tied, Florida is tied. Any polls you hear to the contrary are as accurate as the Pew research 14 point lead.

I would not be surpised to see Gallup move even closer today.

Could we have 4 national polls within the MOE of error today:

Gallup, GWU, AP and TIPP?

Obama is collapsing despite the best efforst of the MSM and the SoS of OHIO to steal the election for him.

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jonny87:

...with that politico/indsideradvantage poll, the last 3 polls have given obama double digit leads in ohio. hard to see them as crazy outliers now.

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mac7396:

O had a +14 yesterday on Dkos, 3 day rolling avg at +12. People are really starting to get it. This was one of Boomie's favorite polls last week.

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Thatcher:

Um ... boomshak -

You DO know that the GWU/Battleground and TIPP polls are both done by the same firm, the Tarrance Group ... don't you?

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

What's coming from Gallup are poll numbers. During their polling they ask voters if they have already voted. Of course, this may yield small sample sizes and is unreliable. The numbers coming from the election boards are the actual numbers citing the registration of the voters that already cast their ballots.

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mysticlaker:

Shut up Boom. Just shut up today. You have become a complete annoyance.

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boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

There is going to be a bloodbath on Wall Street today. Look out America.

The big selloff you are seeing in the Dow Futures this morning is just the forced unwinding of some Hedge Funds positions due to creadit swap problems.

Probably sell off on the open then rally back.

CONCLUSION:
For the life of me, I cannot understand why economic troubles benefit Obama. He has NO ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE AND HE WANT TO INCREASE THE CAPITAL GAINS TAX AND TAX SMALL BUSINESS. I mean, his policies are all anti-business and people trust him more on the economy. It's non-sensical.

BTW, don't hit me with that bullsh*t "tax credit for hiring employees" plan by Obama. Unless it exceeds the cost of new taxes, it is no help. If it does exceed the cost of new taxes, why the hell have the taxes?

QUESTION FOR MOONBATS:
How can Obama pay for ALL of his expensive new government taxes just by increasing taxes on the Top 5% by 3%? Answer, he can't. he has to double the Capital Gains Rate (will kill stock market) and he will have to raise taxes on the middle-class too. Just wait for it.

We are gonna be hosed at it will be all your fault for supporting this fraud.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Boomshak, you're off the reservation. You're losing it. Get a grip. John McCain isn't going to even attend his election night party. Doesn't that tell you something buddy.

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mysticlaker:

Shut up Boom. Your questions have been answered dozens of time. Shut up.

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boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

Shut up Boom. Just shut up today. You have become a complete annoyance.

Liberal Moonbats always find the TRUTH annoying. That's why you love The Fairness Doctrine, because you want to silence that annoying dissent.

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PA-John:

Boom:

look here:
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

These are REAL early voting numbers as reported by the various states. This is what has happened so far in NC:

766,991 votes have been cast.
56.3% by democrats
27.1% by republicans

AA are 28.8% of voters

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

By increasing the taxes on the top 5% of American's, they'll have less money to donate to John McCain so he can spend it on clothing for Sarah Palin in a losing effort.

$150,000 - - - gone.

Some Goodwill shopper is going to be really lucky.

Better yet -- they can sell the stuff on EBay for a loss like Palin sold the plane.

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mysticlaker:

No boom. You are just an annoying low-life ****. I love dissent but I can't handle your stupidty so just SHUT THE **** UP.

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DTM:

As I have noted before, people who cherry-pick polls are ultimately only fooling themselves. And that applies no less to information about early voting.

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sunnymi:

Boomshak, one question for you.

Bush reduced capital gains taxes to 15% and yet the stock market under his watch dropped to below where took over.
How do you explain that?

No one will stop investing in the stock market because Capital Gains Tax is higher. Case in point is the second term of Bill Clinton.
How do you explain this?

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boomshak:

Thatcher:
Um ... boomshak -

You DO know that the GWU/Battleground and TIPP polls are both done by the same firm, the Tarrance Group ... don't you?

Lol, no they arent. Where the hell did you get THAT?

GWU/Battleground is done by a partnership between a Republican and Democrat Pollster. The Republican half is The Tarrance Group.

TIPP is done by TechnoMetrica with NO relation to Tarrance Group.

Do some research next time before posting.

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boomshack:

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:
Democrats are flooding the polls in early voting, local and state election figures show.

besides, you have no idea how those democrats are voting inside the voting booths! I have a cousin who works in voting booth sales and repair, and he tells me that there many more dems DISSATISFIED with Obama this election cycle than there were dissatisfied with him four years ago! Huge McCain SURGE. Statistical tie by Sunday.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

I'm sure your cousin is about as qualified as "Joe The Plumber".

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mysticlaker:

SHUT THE **** UP BOOM. "Statistical tie by Sunday." SHUT IT.

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Kjartan:

One question from the outside of US again :)
Why is calling other people as "liberals" an insult?? I always thought that the core of the american dream is liberty. Maybe this question seems naive to you but I do not really get it.

BTW: What is a moonbat?? Could not find it in my dictionary. :)))

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boomshak:

@sunnymi:
Boomshak, one question for you.

No one will stop investing in the stock market because Capital Gains Tax is higher. Case in point is the second term of Bill Clinton.

Simple. Dot.com bubble. Without the Dot.com bubble, which started to burst during the final years of Clinton's term, the economy would have been nothing under Clinton.

You had Yahoo trading at P/E multiples of 200 and above. A P/E of 20 is considered normal.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

Better yet -- I'm sure your cousin is about as qualified as Sarah Palin.

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boomshack:

PA-John:

Boom:

766,991 votes have been cast.
56.3% by democrats
27.1% by republicans
AA are 28.8% of voters

This is a STUPID poll. It favors democrats by over 2:1 margin! FAIL. Even communist dailyKOSMOS does not give them that much of cushion! SUPER FAIL. Geez. Whoever this pollster is, they should be FIRED

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sunnymi:


Boomshak, so much for your OHIO tied meme....A third poll out in 24 hrs showing Obama up in double digits

Politico/Insider Advantage
Obama - 52
McCain - 42

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14895.html

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boomshak:

The DOW JONES was around 11,700 when Bush took over. Then as the dot.com bubble burst, it fell to around 8500.

Then it rallied to over 14,000 under Bush before the Democrats destroyed our economy by forcing banks to lend money to poor people who couldn't pay.

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sunnymi:

Politico/Insider Advantage (Florida)
Obama - 48
McCain - 47

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14895.html

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boomshack:

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

Better yet -- I'm sure your cousin is about as qualified as Sarah Palin.

For your information, my cousin happens to be an excellent voting booth repairman. Last year he won the runner up prize for having the cleanest booths! What has YOUR cousin won?!
And Sarah Palin is SUPER HOT. Last night President George W Bush endorsed her again and emphasized about how qualified she was!

OWN!

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boomshak:

@boomshack:

IMPOSTER!

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mysticlaker:

@sunnymi...

Here is what will be telling the next few days. If McCain pulls a dole and just starts to campaign to protect senate and house seats. If that happens, we know he's done.

He pretty much said he is done without the election party, but if he starts to go back to campaign in areas with vulnerable seats instead, it will be final sign.

I think that the nail in the coffin was Palin's clothes. It killed any remaining repub enthusim. That was it.

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boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

Calm down...

YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY UPSET AS YOU SEE OBOZO CRUMBLING.

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sunnymi:

@boomshak, I am not asking you "how the stock market went up" but "why it went up" despite higher captial gains taxes during Clinton's time.

You seem to basically agree with my point that if the market finds something exciting it will invest in it no matter what the captial gains taxes are..and conversely throw in the towel when everything is scary like it is now!

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bmrKY:

boom**** predictions...

EPIC FAIL!

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Paul:

Already voted (SUSA):
Indiana: O 50 M 46
Maine: O 61, M 34
North Carolina: O 59, M 36
Wisconsin: O 52, M 37


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smith4pres23:

wow
from what im seeing, boom is hitting you guys with logical arguments... and you all are just plugging your ears and telling yourselves what you want to hear... that hes some idiot who has no idea what hes talking about.. funny

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

Then it rallied to over 14,000 under Bush before the Democrats destroyed our economy by forcing banks to lend money to poor people who couldn't pay.

This is just plain ignorant. Are you saying that 81,000 minorities lost their home to foreclosure last month because they couldn't pay the bills? Are you saying that because Freddie and Fannie encouraged minority home ownership that it caused the current financial crisis? Explain.

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PA-John:

"This is a STUPID poll. It favors democrats by over 2:1 margin! FAIL. Even communist dailyKOSMOS does not give them that much of cushion! SUPER FAIL. Geez. Whoever this pollster is, they should be FIRED"

To quote youreself "do a little research"

THIS IS NOT A POLL. These are the real numbers as reported by the North Carolina Secretary of State as to who has ACTUALLY voted early.

THESE are REAL numbers. Get over yourself!!

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boomshack:

mysticlaker:

YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY UPSET AS YOU SEE OBOZO CRUMBLING.

Obviously, you are finally coming to your senses. Are we or are we not running out of obozone? Welcome aboard.

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Thatcher:

Former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, a Republican, is endorsing Democrat Barack Obama for president, citing the senator's steady leadership, good judgment and ability to unify Democrats, Republicans and independents. ....

Last year, Weld came to New Hampshire to campaign for another former Massachusetts governor, Republican Mitt Romney, who ended his bid for the presidential nomination in February.

Weld was governor from 1991 to 1997. Before that, he was appointed U.S. attorney for Massachusetts by President Reagan and was later selected to head the criminal division of the Justice Department.

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boomshak:

Let’s recap the offbeat barometers of presidential elections:

(1) The Family Circle Cookie Bakeoff (correctly predicted winner since inception in 1992): Cindy McCain won with her delicious oatmeal butterscotch cookies, versus Michelle Obama’s bitter, clingy arugula socialist shortbreads.

(2) The Nickelodeon Kids’ Poll (wrong last election: kids picked Kerry): Obama won by just 2%, whereas kids voted for Kerry by 17% margin. Obama should have won this won 60-40% at least.

(3) Halloween mask sales (correct as long as we can remember): McCain’s winning, with just a week to go before Halloween. If you combine the McCain/Palin sales, they’re trouncing Obama/Biden – but they don’t even bother to make a Joe Biden mask.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Why does anyone even reply to boomshak?

Guy is off the hinges.

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Thatcher:

@boomshak -

Weren't you a Romney supporter in the beginning? So was former Governor Weld - now he's going to Obama ... shouldn't you?

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

Answer the questions, Boomshak.

This is just plain ignorant. Are you saying that 81,000 minorities lost their home to foreclosure last month because they couldn't pay the bills? Are you saying that because Freddie and Fannie encouraged minority home ownership that it caused the current financial crisis? Explain.

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mysticlaker:

Yes boom - Obama is done you are right. Your predictive powers are amazing. I am sorry. I forget to every one of the predictions you've made has come true - NOT. YOU SUCK. If you can give me evidence of ONE prediction you've made that comes true I'll apologize. I WANT ONE you ass ****.

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bmrKY:

"boomshak:

YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY UPSET AS YOU SEE OBOZO CRUMBLING."

Boom****, I just wanted to inform you that after reading your posts this morning... you STILL suck.

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maddiekat:

I hate to tell you this boobshak but the Battleground Poll is going to show Obama up by 7 today.

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boomshack:

Thatcher:

Former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, a Republican, is endorsing Democrat Barack Obama for president, citing the senator's steady leadership, good judgment and ability to unify Democrats, Republicans and independents. ....
Last year, Weld came to New Hampshire to campaign for another former Massachusetts governor, Republican Mitt Romney, who ended his bid for the presidential nomination in February.
Weld was governor from 1991 to 1997. Before that, he was appointed U.S. attorney for Massachusetts by President Reagan and was later selected to head the criminal division of the Justice Department.


doesn't matter! how many William Weld Halloween masks have you seen sold?!
EPIC FAIL!

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DTM:

Since this thread is nominally about the Zogby poll, here is what he has on early voting:

"Those who have already voted now comprise more than 10% of the Zogby sample, and Obama holds a 20–point lead in that category."

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Thatcher:

lol @ boomshaCk

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boomshak:

@PA-John:

Don't confuse "Boomshack" (an imposter) with "Boomshak" (the original)...

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Cho:

best single day of polling in dkos-poll for obama

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mysticlaker:

@DTM! I saw that!

The obama strategy to bank early votes is genius. To of the top 10 people I'd like to meet in my life right now is David Axelrod and David Ploufee. They are pulling out one of most amazing campaigns ever.

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boomshak:

@DTM:

Zogby (a lifelong hardcore Democrat), has lost his mind. He went from a 2 point Obama lead to a 12 point Obama lead in the exact same time period other national polls were narrowing.

What you will see over the next few days is he will have it 2 points or so closer every day until the election since he doesn't want to lose what little credibility he has left.

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bmrKY:

"(3) Halloween mask sales (correct as long as we can remember): McCain’s winning, with just a week to go before Halloween. If you combine the McCain/Palin sales, they’re trouncing Obama/Biden – but they don’t even bother to make a Joe Biden mask."

Have you LOOKED at John McCain? The dudes face seriously looks effed up. With the skin on the one side of his face hanging as loosely as it does, it makes him look like the Frankenstein monster. No wonder more people are buying his masks... HE'S CREEPY! He has the perfect Halloween look.

Besides, don't you have a boner for Mitt Romney? After all, you said EVERYONE in your conservative circle HATED the "RINO" McCain. Was that a lie, or just another failed boom**** prediction?

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SoloBJ:

Another poll showing Obama up by double digits in Ohio yet Florida is so close? Seems a bit odd. I still don't believe he is up that much in Ohio as much as I would like to believe it. Perhaps the "Joe the Plumber" gig turned people off there as the Ohio polls were much tighter before all of the Joe rah rah stuff.

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DTM:

By the way, the stock market crash was caused by fears of a global recession. Those fears were caused by a global credit crisis. That crisis was caused by the proliferation of poorly regulated securities based on overvalued mortgages. There were so many overvalued mortgages because of unusually easy monetary policy between 2002 and 2006.

So, the proximate cause of the stock market crash has nothing to do with the Democrats taking over Congress, let alone a law that was passed in 1977. Rather, it was caused by poor regulation of the financial system combined with unusally easy monetary policy (which, if you think about it, was destined to cause one sort of crisis or another).

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smith4pres23:

The financial crisis was caused by Democrats (and some Republicans) in Congress forcing companies to hand out loans to people who had no way of paying them back because they were trying to do some "good will" i guess... but Obama is only detrimental to the problem because of the fact that all of the rich people are pulling their money out of the market because they know Obama is ahead in the polls and hes going to tax them to death... they didnt become rich by being stupid... they wont sit there while Obama tries to take their money for government hand-outs

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boomshack:

PA-John:

THESE are REAL numbers. Get over yourself!!

Get a grip, John! For someone who is allegedly in PA, you obviously have no clue that any poll that does not show McCain either tied or ahead (notice the emphasis) in PA, OH and FL is obviously FAKE.

This pollster is flaking out and ought to be reported to whatever governing body the pollsters have. I tried emailing to the United Pollsters of America, but it keeps bouncing.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

I knew you wouldn't answer the question. I've heard Limbaugh and Hannity spew this same argument and the MSM seems to let it slide. I'll throw the numbers out for everyone.

Subprime loans accounted for less than 30% of all mortgages. Cauacasians received roughly two thirds of all subprime mortgages as they received the greatest total number of mortgages. The default group for each of the major ethnicities (black, white, and hispanic) of subprime borrowers defaulted at a rate of about 20%. The greatest number of defaults did not result from subprime mortgages.

The problem of illiquidity resulted from the valuation of CDOs which are bundles of hundred of thousands of mortgages of varying quality. With falling home prices and rising default rates, accountants couldn't accurately value the assests.

You can keep talking about Freddie and Fannie all you want. There is still the matter of the deregulation that allowed investment firms to act as proxy banking institutions and to create financial instruments in the credit markets. In your simple argument, you need to account for rising fuel costs, rising unemployment, and the cost of borrowing money to execute two wars.

We are not Hannity watchers. We're not going to digest this stuff without facts to support your arguments.

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mysticlaker:

@boomshak

**** you - you racist ****. Get a clue.

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MNLatteLiberal:

smith4pres23:

"The financial crisis was caused by Democrats (and some Republicans) in Congress forcing companies to hand out loans to people who had no way of paying them back because they were trying to do some "good will" i guess... "

This minority lending bull**** bordering on racism has been debunked many times, but since it is a republican favorite talking point, here are a couple of links explaining that it was NOT this lending that caused the meltdown.
Smothpress, read slowly, there are long words in there:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/53802.html

and this one is a bit more fun to read:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/10/matt_taibbi_and_byron_york_but.html

Looking forward to your resume of the assigned reading, Mr. Press.

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Kile Thomson:

10 days to go

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mysticlaker:

Markets may not open today. At lowest permissible levels.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/business/25markets.html?hp

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boomshak:

The Media's "Hear No Evil, See No Evil, Speak No Evil" Approach to Covering Barack Obama
Posted by: Erick Erickson

Friday, October 24, 2008 at 05:00AM CDT

There is now ample, ample evidence that Barack Obama's campaign is accepting donations from foreigners in violation of federal law.

There is now ample evidence that Barack Obama's campaign has intentionally opted out of credit card address verification services ("AVS") thereby making it extremely easy to contribute to his campaign while the campaign can claim ignorance to theft, excessive contributions, improper contributions, and illegal contributions.

As Patrick Ruffini notes,

The issue centers around the Address Verification Service (or AVS) that credit card processors use to sniff out phony transactions. I was able to contribute money using an address other than the one on file with my bank account (I used an address I control, just not the one on my account), showing that the Obama campaign deliberately disabled AVS for its online donors.

AVS is generally the first line of defense against credit card fraud online. AVS ensures that not only is your credit card number accurate, but the street address you've submitted with a transaction matches the one on file with your bank.

Authorize.net, the largest credit card gateway provider in the country, lists AVS as a "Standard Transaction Security Setting," recommends merchants use it, and turns it on by default. So, in order for AVS to be turned off, it has to be intentional, at least with Authorize.net.

There have been ample stories since the first reports of questionable donations, but the campaign still has not turned on AVS.

To be clear: this cannot be done with John McCain's website. This could not be done with Hillary Clinton's website. This could not be done with Fred Thompson's website. This could not be done with Joe Biden's website. This could not be done with any other candidate's website. Only Barack Obama's website is set up to allow transactions without any screening for fraud or other inappropriate or illegal activity.

The media has patently, willfully failed to report this story.

There is nothing you or I can do to force the media to cover this story. Nothing.

But let us not be under any delusions. Were this George W. Bush in 2000 or 2004 when he saw record fundraising numbers from low dollar donors, the media would have been all over his campaign if AVS had been turned off.

The watch word for the media right now? Crickets.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@smith4pres23

No one forced banks to lend out more money to kand developers.

No one forced credit card companies to offer more credit.

These companies weren't forced to do anything. Name one company that received a fine or some other penalty by the government because they wouldn't lend to poor borrowers.

Name the standard that the lenders were forced to adopt. Were the forced to lend to people with FICO scores less than 500?

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boomshack:

bmrKY:

"(3) Halloween mask sales (correct as long as we can remember): McCain’s winning, with just a week to go before Halloween. If you combine the McCain/Palin sales, they’re trouncing Obama/Biden – but they don’t even bother to make a Joe Biden mask."

Have you LOOKED at John McCain? The dudes face seriously looks effed up. With the skin on the one side of his face hanging as loosely as it does, it makes him look like the Frankenstein monster. No wonder more people are buying his masks... HE'S CREEPY! He has the perfect Halloween look.

Based on that "LOGIC", Palin masks should be through the ROOF.

FAIL!

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boomshak:

Lol, what the hell have I ever said that is racist?

Is that what you moonbats always scream at anyone who criticizes Obama? Pathetic.

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Thatcher:

@boomshak -

can you give us a real article than one from the managing editor of redstate.com????

Erick Erickson is the managing editor of RedState.com, the largest online community of conservative activists and the most widely read right of center blog on Capitol Hill.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Boomshak...

Falsley blaming the problem on "minorities". Sounds a lot like what Nazi's did with Jews in the 30's...That is racism. Get a clue man.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

You repeated the argument that Limbaugh and Hannity have been making in which they say that because Freddie and Fannie encouraged lending to minorities that couldn't pay the banks failed. It's so wrong on the merits that it borders on racism because of the negative connotations it has for minorities.
It unjust disparages minorities.

If you're going to make these arguments, you're going to have to provide facts and support the vilest claims laid out there by the likes of Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh.

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muckinello:

What I like in the morning is strong coffee, fresh orange juice and angry boomshak. The angier he is the more I know we are close to winning this thing.
How many more come here for their boom fix in the morning?
There are only two persons that make me happier than boom: McSame and A'pallin'g. Look into their eyes and you see defeat.

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dominoid:

@Boomshak

"Yesterday, Gallup writes that Obama leads Mccain amongst early voters by 65% to 35%. Then the NEXT day, he says, no, Obama only leads by 2.

Bizarre.

He completely contradicts himself one day later."

You're misinterpreting two statements - intentionally or not. Both CAN and ARE true.

Let's take an extreme example (for simple math) that right now the final tally will be O-60 M-40. Gallup takes a look at early voters who have voted and determines that Obama is leading by 20 among those that already voted. He then takes a separate question that looks at what percentage of each candidates voters have already voted. In Obama's instance he has 8 percent (of his 60) have already voted and McCain has 8 percent (of his forty) have already voted.

So you CAN be up by 20% among those who already voted AND each candidate be equally at 8% of their voters who have already voted. That's all Gallup said.

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mandalorianarmy:

Boom,

McCain is losing. Period. If you don't think his chance at becoming president is a long shot at this point then you have no business looking at any polls ever again.

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Dan:

wow is it me being overly sensitive this morning, or has boomshak fallen further towards trollism?
He used to be funny. for some reason, this morning he just seems irritating

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s.b.:

10% of Zogby's sampler has already voted??? HMMMM?

And Gallup did say there are not anymore first time voters in this election than in 2004.

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Vokoban:

Last election had been 14% FTVs. This time, they say, it's again 14%.

That makes 28% FTVs in 2 elections.

Humans at an average live through 13-15 elections as adults. Multiply that with 14 - and you'll know why these numbers are huge.

Now the youth vote was split in 2004 - but it is different this time: it is split 60:40 for Obama, and that's a conservative estimate.

And you can bet a lot of the FTVs from 2004 simply feel betrayed by the Repubs.

So there are 28% of the electorate falling for Obama with a huge percentage.

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Viperlord:

Has boom totally lost it? He admitted that he thinks any poll that doesn't show McCain ahead in key states is bad, because it shatters the glass bubble he's put himself in.

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mandalorianarmy:

Boom is just getting all of his head lines from Drudge.

Where Gallup probably has a small and volatile amount of early voters in its sample, most states have been keep count of party ids of early voters and it is hardly 50/50.

North Carolina: Dem 56%, Rep 27%, None 17%
Iowa: Dem 50%, Rep 28%, None 21%
Nevada: Dem 57%, Rep 27%, None 16%
Florida: Dem 41%, Rep 41%, None 17%

So Florida is the only one that is tied and that is because of all of the seniors who vote early. Normally Republicans lead in early voting totals so it really shows you where the enthusiasm is at in this election.

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vmval1:

Any RAS subscribers here? What are the latest numbers? releases at 9am to premium members right?

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vmval1:

Gold...

McCain Met With Pinochet
Huffington Post: "John McCain, who has harshly criticized the idea of sitting down with dictators without pre-conditions, appears to have done just that. In 1985, McCain traveled to Chile for a friendly meeting with Chile's military ruler, General Augusto Pinochet, one of the world's most notorious violators of human rights credited with killing more than 3,000 civilians and jailing tens of thousands of others. The private meeting between McCain and Pinochet has gone previously un-reported anywhere by the U.S. media."

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Dana Adini:

boom

you nit wit its not a polls those are statistics released from NC board of elections and for the recod its 832,041

Dems 56.22%
GOP 27.16%
Other 16.62%

here the link. check out the distribution of voters in iowa

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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Dana Adini:

in north carolina the early vote totals through yesterday at 1PM (click on the excel link its updated) is 23% of the vote in 2004.!!!!!

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Dana Adini:

Ras Friday

O 52
M 45

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vmval1:

@Dana:

Thanks for Ras numbers


____________________

M2:

Reaganomics have failed twice in spectacular fashion, that's why voters are embracing Obama when it comes to the economy and rejecting McCain. Obama's the one holding the playbook that works.

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AB:

You can trust a poll of what someone says on the phone, or you can actually go to the NC SBOE website and see what people in NC are doing with their feet. We have early voting here, and as of 8:30 this morning the SBOE has logged in 930,516 early voters. The stats (not including 6329 military and overseas voters)
Dem 517,593 (56.00%)
Repub 252,424 (27.31%)
Democrats continue to marginally increase their advantage in registration (one stop voting allows registering and voting at one time in person in the county you live in).
Registration statistics are as follows:
Total 6,202,721
Dems 2,831,044 (45.64%)
Repubs 1,988,085 (32.05)
Ind 1,380,497 (22.26%)
Do you notice the enthusiasm gap? For those of us who live in the state it is very noticeable.
Also of note; mail in absentee ballots (traditional Rep and currently 51,607 of the total Repub vote) has slowed (4000 logged since yesterday) One-step (how Dems are turning out) is running at well more than 100,00 a day.
Early voting continues until Sat Nov 1.

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billwy:

I didn't read all the comments because I need to work. But I read about half and no one says the obvious thing. Early voting helps slightly with turnout, especially among groups who are less likely to vote historically.
However, people who are willing to vote 10-20 days before an election are not undecideds...they had already made up their mind. So I don't think early voting will change statewide outcomes by more than 1-2% in an individual state. That said...1-2% might be more than McCain can afford in NC.

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vmval1:

BOOMSHAK!!!!!

Is the the utter bull**** scandal you were spewing your pearls of wisdom about yesteday???

"Right now, all the polls predict that in less than two weeks, Barack Obama is going to be elected president. The McCain campaign disputes this. Large numbers of Obama supporters are also in doubt, possibly because they keep getting e-mails from their relatives in Toledo revealing that Obama has gone to Hawaii not to visit his ailing grandmother, but to destroy evidence that he is not actually an American citizen."

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vmval1:

I think this is the scandal the real boomshak was referring to a couple of days ago - typical crazy right wing BS:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/23/opinion/23collins.html?em

"Right now, all the polls predict that in less than two weeks, Barack Obama is going to be elected president. The McCain campaign disputes this. Large numbers of Obama supporters are also in doubt, possibly because they keep getting e-mails from their relatives in Toledo revealing that Obama has gone to Hawaii not to visit his ailing grandmother, but to destroy evidence that he is not actually an American citizen."

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mysticlaker:


insert drudge siren

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1024_633.aspx

Insider Advantage Georgia
O48-M47

The two polls were conducted last night, each with 615 registered, likely voters. The margin of errors for both is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.


The results:


Presidential

Obama, 48 percent

McCain, 47 percent

Other, 2 percent

Undecided, 3 percent


U.S. Senate

Chambliss, 44 percent

Martin, 42 percent

Buckley, 2 percent

Undecided, 12 percent


Matt Towery on the presidential race:


“Obama is doing better among white voters than Kerry did in 2004 (according to exit polls of that race), carrying some 28 percent of the white vote. He’s carrying around 75 percent both of the Hispanic and ‘other’ vote, which makes up between four and five percent of Georgia’s electorate. He is winning among independents, outside of the margin of error of the poll.


“While this is a tight race, the problem for McCain is that all but 3 percent of whites have made their decision and approximately 8 percent of black voters have continued to say they are undecided or voting ‘other.’ This will likely move closer to 95 percent for Obama when all said and done. Obama has room to go up.


“If the race were to remain the way it is today, you won’t see these numbers come to fruition until very late in the night of Nov. 4 or perhaps the next day. The early numbers will likely show McCain ahead, as the counties where Obama is doing best are some of the largest counties and will be the slowest to report.”


Towery on the U.S. Senate race: “The Senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided. The largest undecided segment among party affiliations are Democrats, who mirror that black percentage – 14.5 percent – and independents at 18 percent, who are leaning toward Martin by a margin of 45-33 percent. Generally speaking, at this point in a race, unless something were to turn it around, we would treat the undecideds two ways: we would either lop it off and redistribute it, or we would assign it based on the relative positions of the candidates as they stand today. Under either of those scenarios, Chambliss and Martin would be in a runoff.”


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boskop:

@BOOM
tipp has a one point diff
wonder how obama the loving one is doing taping his inaugural address for the world series.
like he's really kissing granny adios, LOL!!
he's using her as cover to put the finishing touches on his speech not her coffin!

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Dan:

Early Voting.

So, more people are voting early in NC and GA this election. More dems. are voting early in most states (ex. FL). What does this tell us? Mostly that Obama supporters are more excited about thier candidate than McCain's. No big surprise there. It does not tell us that he will receive more votes! One important point not mentioned here is that party id in some southern states may not be a good barometer of current voter affiliation. Remember, prior to Reagan, the south was solidly democratic, and most voters who expressed a party affiliation listed D. Since then, the "solid south" did a 180, and is now solidly R. The posted tally in NC is skewed towards the Ds (2:1), and the over 55 crowd. Guess when these people registered. These are not newly registered dems who are voting enthusiastically here. Look at the data. Registered Ds in NC outnumer registered Rs by 45% to 33%. That is approximately the margin that Bush won in 2004. One other item. Many states hold closed primaries. In other words, you can vote only for the party in which you registered. Many more voters registered as Ds just to vote in the D primary, especially in those states with later primaries (i.e. PA), when the R side was already decided.

Bottom line. Party registration is not a good barometer for voting results.

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Snacktime:

I don't normally comment, but I have to respond to boomshak just this once. He quotes the following from Gallup: "Roughly equal percentages of Barack Obama supporters and John McCain supporters have taken advantage of the early voting opportunity -- so far."

This is actually bad news for McCain, not good news. Imagine there are 100 obama supporters and 50 mccain supporters. If twice as many obama early votes had been recorded so far, you would still say that "equal percentages" of obama supporters and mccain supporters have early voted.

In contrast, if a higher percentage of obama supporters were early voting, then the fact that lots of democrats are showing up to early vote wouldn't be a good sign for obama at all. it would just mean that obama's voters are more likely to vote early.

Ergo, once again boomshak doesn't understand.

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cinnamonape:

Just a point of information/clarification for our ALL CAPS disinformant. We have to be careful about that Gallup remark about there being no more first time voters than 2004.

What they actually found was that the PROPORTION of first time votrers will be the same as 2004. That year the participation of new voters was about 13% of the total.

Compare this to the "natural" increase of 18 year olds into the voting pool. They make up about 2.3% of the population. Thus you should have about 9.2% added into the voting pool every four years. And that should be the percentage if they actually registered/voted at the rates found in the older generations.

Thus in 2004 there was an increase above that natural increase by nearly 4%. That's almost a 40%/year increase in the voting rate vs. older voters.

Of course, some of that increase might have been naturalized citizens and "discouraged" voters...new older registrants, people who hadn't voted in years, etc. It was generally thought in 2004 that groups like ACORN and "Rock The Vote" had pretty much sopped up that pool, however. Any other non-registrants and new voters would have to come from that group of "entering 18 year olds". The remaining refusants would be hard-core non-voters.

So when Gallup says that the new voter increase hasn't changed since 2004...that means it's actually up to 13% again!

That means either young people are registering and intend to vote at even higher levels than 2004, or that an equal number "discouraged" voters are expressing a desire to vote. Since that "pool" was thought to be restricted to hard-core non-voters...the fact that these numbers are the same is impressive.

One more point. All those new voters that voted in 2004 (or the midterm elections and primaries) are no longer "new voters". So you have those "second time voters" and a larger than expected % of new voters participating this time.

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