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US: Obama 51, McCain 42 (DailyKos 9/26-28)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/ Research 2000
9/26-28,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 42, Barr 2, Nader 1,

 

Comments
boomshak:

26% Republicans.

Sure.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Even if you up the Republican internal number, Obama still wins with a Michael Jordan 360 slam dunk from the free throw line.

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rdw4potus:

Boom,

The difference between D and R in this poll very closely approximates the expected difference between the two. Sure, the absolute numbers are usually more like 43D/34R, but the difference is right where it should be based on all other national surveys.

Independents do seem to be greatly overstated, but unless you're arguing that Democrats and Republicans are identifying as independents and then claiming to support Obama, your argument holds no weight.

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Inkan1969:

I don't believe that Obama will win by a landslide. I hope that the landslide belief doesn't cause Obama workers to be complacent about the election.

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Why is a daily tracker being highlighted separately from the other trackers when they have been released together under one posting in the past? And who is PH staff?

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boffo:

Nice way to cherry pick the data, boomshak. To pick up on the response of rdw4potus: This poll puts Ds at 35%, Rs at 26%, Is at 30% and "Other" at 9%. Obviously R2k didn't push the leaners very hard, but I don't see how you can say this is far out of line with other recent polls on party ID.

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Adrian B:

Ramussen has Obama +5 with a highly optimistic Republican ID and Kos has Obama +9 with a highly pessimistic Republican ID.

Add two to Ram, take two away from Kos and there you have it!! Obama +7.

By the way, to all those who hold Ramussen as the key measure it was Obama +6 yesterday and Kos was +7.

The trackers are all saying the same thing. Watch for NC, Florida, IN, and Virginia all to show movement towards Obama this week.

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macsuk:

The Ras results are good for Obama being that his best night of polling last week dropped off this report.

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DaveAustralia:

@Macsuk

"I believe this article is so accurate I will share it again..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3089433/Barack-Obamas-top-team-believes-he-can-win-White-House-by-a-landslide.html"

If that article is correct it would explain why there is only 26% republicans, there has also been a huge downturn over the last few years with republican membership. With them moving to 'independant' status, that would possibly explain why McCain was doin so well with indys for a while.

If the polls arent reflecting just how many americans are democrats, then as i said earlier to you boomshak this will be a blowout.


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DaveAustralia:

@adrian B

"The trackers are all saying the same thing. Watch for NC, Florida, IN, and Virginia all to show movement towards Obama this week."

If he takes any one of those states its over

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Mike_in_CA:

@DaveAustralia,

I think he will take all of them but NC. Florida has a lot of economic problems.

@boomshak,

The Dow is down again 300 at the start today. The economic problems aren't "fading" away anytime soon.... With only a month to go, voters' opinions are getting locked in. October 1-15 is the most crucial time. After the 15th its VERY difficult to change minds...

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couseydee:

I agree with inkan, the Obama campaign cannot let their guard down. Obama has to stop being a punching bag a la Kerry or Dukakis. While I do think Obama will win this thing, I'm still going door knocking in Minneapolis this weekend.

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voteforamerica:

I've read the bill (read most of it at time of writing):

The Bailout Bill: First Impressions

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KipTin:

Daily Kos and Rasmussen both poll for LIKELY voters.

Daily Kos political ID this poll is Democrats 392 (35%)
Republicans 278 (26%)
Independents 330 (30%)
Other/Refused 100 (9%)

Rasmussen political ID weighting this week is 39.0% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 27.6% unaffiliated.

Note that Rasmussen uses the category of unaffiliated which should be equivalent to Daily Kos Independents + Other/Refused to equal 39%.

Therefore differentials are as follows:

Daily Kos has 9% more Democrats than Republicans. Rasmussen has 5.6% more Democrats than Republicans. A differential of +4.4% Democrats for Daily Kos.

Daily Kos has 39% unaffiliated, whereas Rasmussen has 27.6%. A differential of +11.4% for Daily Kos. That many youth consider themselves Independents is something that needs to be explored further in comparing these two polls.

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John:

@KipTin
I think you meant a differential of 3.4%.
R2000's 9%D - Rasmussen's 5.6%D = 3.4D

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KipTin:

I agree with Boomshak. This "economic" issue although not going away will lessen up as the markets recover. 36 days to voting is a lifetime in politics.

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mac7396:

While some people here can argue about sampling percentages of the dying republican brand, one thing is indisputable. The trend is Obama's friend. Looks like Johnny "I'm suspending my campaing" McCain's stunts did not play well last week.

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Trosen:

Gotta belive boomshank is paid McCain staffer. I have friends and relatives who are Republican/Mccain supporters. None of them believe the crap he's spewing to try to sping the #s. They haven't given up, but they know the #s don't look good and they don't try to spin it to show it's actually a "tie" right now. I can't believe anyone not on the payroll is truly that delusional.

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slinky:

Fairly clear that the bailout legislation will not solve all the worldwide economic problems sufficient to rescue McC from his disasterous handling the last week OR his advocacy of 'unfettered capitalism' the last many years. This is a humongous problem facing his campaign for the forseeable future. Unless he can lie his way out of this problem, or the American people are duped, he is sunk.

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Mike_in_CA:

@KipTin,

You're wrong. 36 days in October is NOT long at all. It is a long time in July or August. Or even September. But once we get to this point in the campaign, opinions are solidifying.

Check out this chart:

http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/426/CF01.jpg

Notice that both 2000 and 2004 lines began to stabilize within about a week of this point....

The economy is sure the be at the forefront for this week at least as the Senate doesn't vote on the bailout until Wednesday. And then, in two weeks, Obama and McCain have a debate ENTIRELY on the economy.

McCain is running out of time, and he knows it. You can convince yourself that 36 days is forever in politics, but the truth is, at this point, it's not. McCain has about 1 week to make up serious ground....

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adocarbog:

Watch out for Florida PPP poll out due on Tuesday.
Partial preview says now 68% in Florida see economy as main issue and teaser is: "Guess who is leading in Florida now and not by just a few points"
Last FL PPP poll was McCain up 5% righ after R convention and Sarah Palin wet dreams

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Trosen:

The Obama campaing is really pushing for FL. The # of volunteers has almost doubled it seems in the past month or so. I personally think it's too much because a) He doesn't need FL to win and b) unless it's an absoulte blowout I don't see Gov. Crist letting FL's EVs go to Obama if he can help it in any way. (and remeber, the FL legislature and Supreme Court is controlled by Republicans as well). But, clearly either Obama thinks he can win here, or thinks he can divert some of McCain's time and resources here enough to pull them off from other places like OH, PA, VA, CO, et al.

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macsuk:

McCain is dropping on Intrade today like the stock market. I remember one time either KipTin or Boomshak (who are interchangable) said that Intrade is a better judge of the race then the daily tracking polls. It's funny I havent heard them mention that of late!

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Viperlord:

I wouldn't take Kos too seriously, but it does reflect the trend far better than that other ridiculous poll.

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JCK:

Trosen,

I think the reason Obama is keeping the pressure up in FL is because McCain is dead in the water with a loss in FL. He really has no conceivable path to 270 EV without it, and Obama has at least an outside chance of winning it.

I can't speak to the corruptness of the FL voting process, but I suspect Obama has enough lawyers and other observers watching the process closely.

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Trosen:

Well I can speak to it. (In 2004 the media ignored asinine things like counties with 2000 registered voters giving over 5000 votes to Bush at a 95-5% ratio) If it's anywhere within 3-4%, the EVs WILL go to McCain. I have to guess it will be the same in OH. There's a reason the Obama campaign formulated strategies that leave those states out and it certianly wasn't because they felt they couldn't possibly get more votes there. I have to believe they are trying to get McCain to have to pound the pavement in FL.. which in essence can be nearly as effective as flipping it, with the all the other formerly red states in play.

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JCK:

Trosen,

Be careful making these arguments. If you tell people that their votes won't count in FL because of corruption, then do you think they're going to be more likely, or less likely, to vote? And will this help or hurt your candidate?

Just my two cents.

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BarackO'Clinton:

I love it.

You can someone's worried about their candidate when they resort to the "XX days is a lifetime is politcs" arguement.

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Trosen:

The argument is, a 2/3 point lead won't cut it. If the # of newly registered democrats actually shows up and votes on election Day, we can possibly make it not so close to steal. It's being pragmatic. A close shave won't cut it. The Obama campaign can lawyer up all they want. Ultimately the State Legislature can and will certify the votes, regardless of perceived impropriety. And if the stakes are raised to US Supreme Court, we know how that goes as well. But they can only pull that kind of stuff off if it's close. A Clinton-style landslide in FL could do it Regardless of Crist and co.

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KipTin:

OK... BarackO'Clinton... I am a pragmatist not a biased optimist. Just a couple of weeks ago McCain was leading Obama in the polls. So it is now 5 weeks until election. It is all relative. Anything can happen to change the lead or bring it back down to a tie.

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KipTin:

FYI... as a pragmatist I do not rely on gambling activities... e.g. InTrade... therefore I would not invoke it as a source for anything.

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KipTin:

You are wrong... Mike_in_CA... because you are arguing with me over daily tracking polls, which are designed to fluctuate with singular events.

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PortlandRocks:

KipTin you guys are seeming VERY desperate. Just an obervation man. Your party is imploding.

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thirdparty:

@boomshak:

How many times have you ignored people who explain exactly why R2K only has 26% Republicans? We have explained constantly that this poll does NOT push leaners to commit.

For what it's worth, I've kindly readjusted these figures to take into account your favourite Rasmussen weightings. Bad news for you, boomshak: even after I've adjusted the weightings, it shows Obama +5 and last night, it had Obama +6.

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