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US: Obama 51, McCain 43 (GWU 10/08-09, 10/12-14)

Topics: PHome

GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/08-09,10/12-14, 08; 1000 LV 3.0%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 43

 

Comments
Thatcher:

InAdv/PollPosition
Florida
Obama 48, McCain 44
North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 46
Nevada
Obama 49, McCain 46
West Virginia
McCain 49, Obama 47

FL will be moving back to "toss up" in RCP because of this poll - even though it is a +1 improvement for Obama from the last time InAdv/PollPosition polled.

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carl29:

Let's make an a weekly update:

Today, 10/15

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45 Obama +5
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Hotline Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground Obama 51 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.2

A WEEK AGO:

Wednesday 10/08

Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Hotline Obama 45 McCain 44
Battleground Obama 49 McCain 45

Average: Obama 48 McCain 44.8

*Another update after Gallup comes out :-)

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OGLiberal:

Not a bad number in that bunch of InAdv polls for Obama.

I think it's pretty clear now that West Virginia is absolutely in play. The beauty is that because Obama is running all kinds of ads in PA, VA, and OH, he doesn't even have to really do anything in WV. But maybe a last visit there could push him over the top? The fact that he hasn't visited there leads me to believe that his campaigns internals are showing McCain's lead in WV larger than what the public polls are showing. But who knows - perhaps they're saving it up. I believe Biden said at a rally yesterday (not in WV) that they are going to "win West Virginia". Maybe that was setting the stage? And if they could get Jim Webb to come along for the trip, that would certainly help.

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Thatcher:

@carl29 -

Nice work!

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NW Patrick:

Colin Powell Is Ready To Endorse! Hmm I wonder who it will be? LOL

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masselo:

How do you know Patrick?

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Trosen:

I have no idea how GWU jumps from 8 to 13 back to 8 in 3 days time.

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Batony:

If you are McCain...you have to consider yourself lucky. For all the talk of a landslide, if McCain can hold on to the Bush states minus New Mexico and Iowa, he still wins. All the the latest polls I've seen show him to be no more than 5 points down in any of those states. And in each one of those states, the Republican Party is still pretty strong. And he finally has a legitimate economic plan...which cannot do anything but help.

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Trosen:

Patrick, there was a bunch of noise back before the DNC that would happen, but it didn't. If Powell did endorse anyone, don't be shocked if it's McCain. I know you'll say I'm crazy, but this guy is a GOP "loyalist" 'til the end. I mean look what he's been doing the last few days.. he's been a character witness for the defense in the Ted Stevens trial.

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Ryguy:

batony, nice spin, but what chances do you think mccain has of winning all of those states that he is currently down in? lets put it this way? more likely that mccain will win

ohio, florida, colorado, north carolina, missouri, virginia, nevada (those just the states he is down in)

or

obama wins just 1 of those...

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CAmatters:

Josh Bolton and GHW Bush endorsed McCain - first sign of a rebound?

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Trosen:

ok NW Patrick, I just read the Lawrence O'Donnell blurb on the Huffington Post. I'll maintain.. I'll believe it when I see it. Powell would alienate a TON of old friends, colleagues, and political allies if he comes out for Obama. I'm still very skeptical.

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DTM:

Even if it were true that McCain was "only" five points down in the many remaining Bush states he must win to prevent Obama from winning the election, that would be a terrible position to be in.

But it turns out that isn't true anyway. In Colorado, McCain did get a relatively favorable O+4 recently, but the other recent polls have been 0+9, O+10, O+9, 0+6, and 0+6. And Iowa, NM, and Colorado are together enough for Obama to win.

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