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US: Obama 51, McCain 44 (Gallup-10/21-23)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/21-23/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

2,787 Registered Voters:
Obama 52, mcCain 42

2,365 Likely Voters-Expanded:
Obama 51, McCain 44

2,406 Likely Voters-Traditional:
Obama 50, McCain 45

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Gallup slowly catching up to the rest of the polls. Widening yet again for Obama!

Get out and vote early if you can, or be prepared to wait a very long time on November 4th, as turnout will be MASSIVE!

Landslide Baby Landslide!!

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MichaelJason:

:)

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PortlandRocks:

Hey BOOMSHAK. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO YOUR "INSIDE SOURCE" Claiming the traditional model for Gallop would be +2 today. Why do you HIDE everytime one of your Messiah predictions FAIL. I mean when EVERY SINGLE ONE fails?

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kerrchdavis:

lol! I thought boom said this would be to 2 pts. Fail!

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blakec:

This poll is closing, ignore all reports that state otherwise.

I have super duper secret insider polls that show McCain up 72 points in all states.

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Batony:

This race will get closer, like every other election. Especially in the Red States.

Looks like John McCain and Republican Party are pulling out all the stops...John Elway today in Denver, Gov. Arnold campaigning next week in his adopted home of Columbus, Oh.

Once the Repubs who can't stand John McCain, start to get back on board, the race will tighten...and they are still very powerful in the red states Obama needs to win.

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PortlandRocks:

5 points even on a "traditional" model is a LANDSLIDE Nov. 4th. McCain's ****ed.

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kerrchdavis:

wow, how can 1 person be WRONG about EVERYTHING EVERY SINGLE TIME?

wrong.wrong.wrong.wrong.wrong.close,but wrong.wrong.wrong.wrong.wrong.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Can you not all see Boom is held in a dark place. Rather than mock and anger him, how bout you reach out to him in Christian brotherhood and help him to see that fear and anger will always lead to darkness and destruction.

And should you reject our help. Please respond to my offer 5 to 1 odds is a good deal!

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tar_heel:

National polls look great for Obama today. Only downside is the new NC poll from Ras, which has M up 50-48.

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Dan:


from the GWU thread, for your reference:

"boomshak:

I have it from an excellent source that Gallup will go to Obama +2 amongst LV's today."

;-)

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PortlandRocks:

Batony slip slidin' away:)

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blakec:

Attacker story from yesterday was a hoax

"A Pittsburgh police commander says a volunteer for the McCain campaign who reported being robbed and attacked near a bank ATM in Bloomfield has confessed to making up the story. Police say charges will be filed. More details to follow."

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zotz:

Batony-
You gotta see Krauthammer's endorsement of McCain in the WP. It's really funny. He said he was concerned that if he didn't endorse him he wouldn't be invited to dinner for the next four years! LOL!

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PortlandRocks:

Batony "This race will tighten". My question to you is WHEN? WHEN? Nov. 5th?

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M2:

The Dow is down big at the moment (-315) and the polls keep marching toward Obama. I expect this weekend is when the Republicans go into every candidate for him/herself mode, including Sarah Palin.

It should be fascinating to watch how many Republicans throw McCain under the bus with Bush during the Sunday morning talk shows.

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[nemesis]:

In Soviet Russia, POLLS mispredict BOOMSHAK!

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fed:

I think Boom meant +2 in the REAL America Gallup poll

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zotz:

blakec-
source please!

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political_junki:

@Batony:
"his race will get closer, like every other election. Especially in the Red States."

Based on intuition you maybe right but people have been saying race will tighten for a month now, and I have been half-heartedly agreeing with while hoping not. The thing is only 9 days are left and when they ask people in the polls how sure are they of their choise, usually +95% are sure, so I dont see how it can tighten 'significantly'. There are not many game changers left...

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Marcus:

McCain surge , shocking .. tied on Sunday ... guaranteed ! :-)

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PortlandRocks:

And now it's time for my daily REALITY CHECK for the thugs. In 2004 RCP had Bush +1.5

Today?

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/23 -- -- 50.2 42.7 Obama +7.5

Rasmussen Reports 10/21 - 10/23 3000 LV 2.0 52 45 Obama +7
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/21 - 10/23 2406 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/21 - 10/23 2365 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/21 - 10/23 1203 LV 2.9 51 41 Obama +10
Hotline/FD 10/21 - 10/23 766 LV 3.5 50 43 Obama +7
GWU/Battleground 10/19 - 10/23 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
CBS News/NY Times 10/19 - 10/22 771 LV -- 52 39 Obama +13
ABC News/Wash Post 10/19 - 10/22 1335 LV 2.5 54 43 Obama +11
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
IBD/TIPP 10/18 - 10/22 1088 LV 3.0 45 44 Obama +1
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14

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BOOMFAIL:

The floodgates are about to open. No one wants to vote for a loser, and people want to feel like they are part of the "winning" crowd. (God I love the quotes/" " McShame does all the time. i.e. "health" of the woman.) The so-called undecided voters will jump off the fence in full force towards Obama, as he has exceeded every threshold and people can see him as the President. Calm, cool, collected. Intelligent. Steady. PRESIDENTIAL. The same thing happened to Reagan, where he had a tidal wave of people switching to him after the debate in 1980. The “Mushy Middle” roll that way! Perhaps Gen. Powell was the final push that they needed to get off the fence. We all know what resulted was a landslide in 1980. We are about to see a repeat of that magnitude, my friends! The tidal wave is coming.

This is what a 9.7% lead resulted in:

Ronald Reagan 43,903,230 50.7% 489 ELECTORAL VOTES
James Carter, Jr. 35,480,115 41.0% 49 ELECORAL VOTES

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980

While I am not suggesting 489 electoral votes, I believe the 375 that Intrade is currently showing could also include GA, ND, and MT for a total of 396. That's the high mark in my crystal ball. 11 more days, my friends!

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE!

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Boom - you reported me to Intrade? LOL.

OK So you're not interested. I understand you realize deep down its over - not even a chance to make $2,000 ($2,500 on a 500 investment) will move you.

Really you should join us for the better of the country. We'd love to have you help us feed the hungry, house the homeless and tend to the sick. Ending tax breaks for the wealthiest and supporting the working people is not just pro-American it is what Jesus would want.

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Thatcher:

John Moody, executive vice president at Fox News, has commented on his blog that "this incident could become a watershed event in the 11 days before the election. If Ms. Todd's allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee.

"If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting."

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laguna_b:

@batony
>>and they are still very powerful in the red states Obama needs to win.

Obama DOESN'T need to win the red states....he only needs 270 not 538...get it?

Though 300 looks easy today....so what will change it?

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ErnieLynch:

kerrchdavis:
wow, how can 1 person be WRONG about EVERYTHING EVERY SINGLE TIME?

wrong.wrong.wrong.wrong.wrong.close,but wrong.wrong.wrong.wrong.wrong.

----

Boom is like that Texas "Carved" chick in Pittsburgh, he looks at all the results in a mirror.

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political_junki:

By the way, it seems after flood of PA polls showing Obama +10, McSame has started to take it easy there. He is a absolute moron to have run there. The way somebody runs his campaign is a good indicator of how he is gonna run the country and I sure as hell wouldnt want McSame to run the economy now the way he has been campaigning, NOT TO SAY ANY THING ABOUT THAT incompetent, ignorant, vapid, venal, corrupt VP choise who lies like a bear rug.

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boomshak:

Statistical noise day for Gallup.

McCain finally getting smart. For last 11 days will run on UNCHECKED LIBERAL POWER OVER ALL LEVERS OF GOVERNMENT.

This is what he should have been running on all along, instead of running againts Obama as an individual, run against the BIG PICTURE.

Watch all the polls start to turn hard on this issue.

McCain finally gets it.

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Thatcher:

@ErnieLynch -

Oh SNAP!

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Babbit:

@blakec: I just now realized that the 'B' is backwards. Like she did it to herself while looking in a mirror.

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Is the nutty IBD poll out yet? Can't wait to see Drudge's sirens for this one, McCain ahead! lol

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PJ_FFM:

I'd love to see these polls as final results - but alas... if only I could believe in Americans as I usually believe in poll numbers... ;->

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BrookLynda:

Holy crap! I spilled my latte all over my arugula!

Where is New Hampshire?? Waahhh!!

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johncoz:

I think it's fair to say that the tectonic plates have shifted decisively in Obama's favour, with today's weighted average of the five 3-day trackers hitting a sustained high, while McCain continues to bleed.

Obama 51.5/ McCain 43.2/ +8.2

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers shows both the spread and Obama's support in a steady rise since last Saturday.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3202/2969900424_303482e36c_b.jpg

Precisely the same trend is evident when we consider all nationals, with yesterday's daily weighted average for all 10 polls being:

Obama 51.2/ McCain 42.9/ +8.3

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boomshak:

Gasoline will be under $2 a gallon by election day. That benefits McCain.

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blakec:

http://kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html

Police sources tell KDKA that a campaign worker has now confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter "B" in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker.

Ashley Todd, 20, of Texas, initially told police that she was robbed at an ATM in Bloomfield and that the suspect became enraged and started beating her after seeing her GOP sticker on her car.

Police investigating the alleged attack, however, began to notice some inconsistencies in her story and administered a polygraph test.

Authorities, however, declined to release the results of that test.

Investigators did say that they received photos from the ATM machine and "the photographs were verified as not being the victim making the transaction."

This afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told KDKA Investigator Marty Griffin that Todd confessed to making up the story.

The commander added that Todd will face charges; but police have not commented on what those charges will be.

According to police, investigators working on the interview process detected several inconsistencies in Todd's story that differed from statements made in the original police report.

Pittsburgh Police Public Information Officer Diane Richard released a statement earlier today, saying: "Because of the inconsistencies in her statements, Ms. Todd was asked to submit to a polygraph examination which she agreed to do."

No photos of Todd are being released by Pittsburgh Police at this time.

The investigation is continuing as officials determine what charges will be filed.

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mirrorball:

Here's the AP story on the ATM/McCain volunteer incident

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iidrMKZwVNDDlEtkssY6t1xxhg9QD94106P03

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M2:

My God, just imagine what will happen if the Dems/libs take over? I mean, they might stop doing all the stupid stuff that has this nation in its current predicament.

Kind of hard to run on fear of the unknown when the known is so lousy. The Dow is now -369 on the day.

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drdr:

batony: "Once the Repubs who can't stand John McCain, start to get back on board"

Well, Colin Powell, Arne Carlson, Ken Adelman, Scott McClellan and Bill Weld have endorsed Obama. And they are all republicans. I don't think they will be getting "back on board" McCain's rapidly sinking ship.

I'm not from Colorado, so maybe John Elway will make a big difference in the election.

All i know is what the polls are telling me, which is that the Presidential election isn't close at all.

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blakec:

@boomstick

You promised MOE today! You promised!

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mysticlaker:

Another failure of Boom....Last night the mugging story was going to "break the election" open.

Boom, don't you understand America wants one party rule right now so we can make some fundamental changes. The country is broken, and we are hoping to elect a party to fix it. That party (for now) is the Democrats.

Come join us boom. Walk me us at the dawn of a new era....

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JCK:

Watch all the polls start to turn hard on this issue.

OK, Boom. I'm watching. And waiting.

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laguna_b:

@boomshak,

"Gasoline will be under $2 a gallon by election day. That benefits McCain."

Now I am getting worried about you...'Drill Baby Drill' will be forgotten...

DJIA 6500 by Nov. 4 .....401k a memory...THAT is what they will remember!!! Unemployment exploding....give us FDR!

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Froggy:

@Babbit: Yes, the fatal backwards "B." America apparently failed to learn a critical lesson from the downfall of Morton Downey, Jr.

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boomshak:

McCain will pick up a point in all the trackers between now and Nov4 to be in the lead on election day.

The McCain "unlimited liberal power" idea will stick because America is a center/right country.

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sunnymi:

boomshak, you said "Gasoline will be under $2 a gallon by election day. That benefits McCain."

Right! he has to fill up his 13 cars, isn't it?

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political_junki:

@BOOM:
"This is what he should have been running on all along, instead of running againts Obama as an individual, run against the BIG PICTURE."

You have been saying Ayres attacks will change the race all along. Now suddenly you see the big picture?
By the way I love it how you have shut up about Ayres without addmitting you were wrong and it was a non-issue. McCain probably lost the race to Palin and Ayers.

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sunnymi:

boomshak you said "McCain finally getting smart. For last 11 days will run on UNCHECKED LIBERAL POWER OVER ALL LEVERS OF GOVERNMENT."

Right! he finally gets it and is going to run a Bob Dole campaign to try and salvage some Senate seats to prevent Dems from getting to 60. That is his best hope.

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak making predictions AGAIN! Man FIRE, I mean FIRE your "inside" Gallop source! ROFL

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Dana Adini:

Boomshak,

you have serious problems.....

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mysticlaker:

What, the girl was faking it? OMG! OMG!

But what about all the evidence, the dyslexic mugger in a tank top in freezing weather, the atm reciept, the twitters...This is a cover up by Obama if I have ever seen one.

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Rollin08:

Lol this is Boom at his best. He makes it all the better to see these polls come in don't you agree?

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kerrchdavis:

roflmao! MORE predictions from boomshak! Be careful guys, his predictions come with an infinite MOE.

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BlueInTexas:

@Boomshak

Yeah, $2 a gallon for gas but you're too busy wondering if YOU STILL HAVE A JOB to buy that gas!

Oy, this one does live with the Mad Hatter doesn't he?

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kerrchdavis:

I'm actually sitting in my office laughing hysterically right now. MORE predictions?? lol!

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DecaturMark:

boomshak:

"McCain finally getting smart. For last 11 days will run on UNCHECKED LIBERAL POWER OVER ALL LEVERS OF GOVERNMENT."

It is too late to change tactics. If is funny that in one of the debates McCain accused Obama of mixing up tactics with strategy. McCain's campaign has run from tactic to tactic without a coherent strategy. That is a main reason why he is losing. It is no wonder that he finished 5th from the bottom in his class.

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PortlandRocks:

That girl in PA. WOW. Doesn't this story just SUM UP the desperation of the GOP? What a sickening stupid idiot.

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Dana Adini:

Boom will be there on November 4th at 9:30 PM after NC, VA and Indiana turn blue and he will say "read my lips, McCain will win California"

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BlueInTexas:

@Boomshak

Yeah, $2 a gallon for gas but you're too busy wondering if YOU STILL HAVE A JOB to buy that gas!

Oy, this one does live with the Mad Hatter doesn't he?

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ErnieLynch:

Boom

Saturdays Powerball???

I will split with 10-90

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BlueInTexas:

@Boomshak

Yeah, $2 a gallon for gas but you're too busy wondering if YOU STILL HAVE A JOB to buy that gas!

Oy, this one does live with the Mad Hatter doesn't he?

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OneAngryDwarf:

Did Drudge put out the sirens and the ...developing for that "girl in PA" story?

How about a retraction?

I doubt that assclown can even spell retraction.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Gas at $2 a gallon doesn't matter if people still can't afford it.

It is weird how oil prices always seem to plummet right before an election. The key in this case, is falling demand. People are seeing that demand destruction/reduction, not drilling everywhere, is the best quick answer to bringing down oil prices.

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Batony:

The race will tighten. I am saying this as a true independent. The reason it will tighten is b/c of unchecked power, a lot of people aren't sold on Obama and whether we believe it or not, there are still a lot of people are actually afraid to say they will not be voting for Obama. And of course racism.

Look when I use to be a partisan, I don't think I was ever as bad as Boom or NWPatrick aka Portland Rocks...but I sometimes lost a sense of reality. Now that my heart and soul is not for either side I see things clearly.

As far as the woman's story being a hoax, when I read it I didn't believe it. C'mon carved a B in her face? Give me a break. As far as race-baiting...a lot of McCain supporters believed Obama campaign has been doing it all along.

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BlueInTexas:

@Boomshak

Yeah, $2 a gallon for gas but you're too busy wondering if YOU STILL HAVE A JOB to buy that gas!

Oy, this one does live with the Mad Hatter doesn't he?

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PortlandRocks:

From Rape claims to conservative pundits the GOP continues to IMPLODE. God I love watching them eat their own.

Reagan Appointee and (Recent) McCain Adviser Charles Fried Supports Obama

Charles Fried, a professor at Harvard Law School, has long been one of the most important conservative thinkers in the United States. Under President Reagan, he served, with great distinction, as Solicitor General of the United States. Since then, he has been prominently associated with several Republican leaders and candidates, most recently John McCain, for whom he expressed his enthusiastic support in January.

This week, Fried announced that he has voted for Obama-Biden by absentee ballot. In his letter to Trevor Potter, the General Counsel to the McCain-Palin campaign, he asked that his name be removed from the several campaign-related committees on which he serves. In that letter, he said that chief among the reasons for his decision "is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis."

Fried is exceptionally thoughtful and principled; his vote for Obama is especially noteworthy.

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Babbit:

@Froggy: Lol, she should have picked the 'O' instead of the 'B'. That way there wouldn't be any room for error.

Sadly though, this is a sure sign that the McCain campaign workers are really cracking. This gal has been out there in unfriendly territory giving her all for what she believes to be right for far too long. It's not easy to see your dream candidate take dive after dive. I'm sure they rationalize it in many bizzar ways, but it's very difficult to actually change a fundamental belief that you have relied on for so long. I just hope that we can all come together as one country and unite behind President Obama without any outbursts of violence.

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boomshak:

@Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Gas at $2 a gallon doesn't matter if people still can't afford it.

Yep, everyone is unemployed and everyone's house is in foreclosure.

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DecaturMark:

@Boom
@Batony

Mysticlaker is right. America wants something done. They are tired of the partisan attacks and polarizing of the country. They are seeing a chance for a united Govt. They want one party to be in control to find a way out of this mess. Since they think the Reps caused it they will give the Dems a chance to fix it. It the Dems do not fix the economy, or over-reach then they will have to pay the price in the next election. But for this year, and this election cycle; it will be all Dem all the time.

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PortlandRocks:

Batony WHEN will the race tighten? Any predictions? There are 6 business days left.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

boom, can you make a few more predictions? please??

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RymHerMan:

The McCain camp has run a horrific, bi-polar, confusing campaign. These guys can't get out of their own way and the American people see it and know it. Palin, Ayers, lack of an economic message, socialism.......exactly what is the McCain message? Vote for me NOT him or Vote me for an here's why. For that matter what does the GOP stand for these days? Surely its not smaller gov't and fiscal responsibility after what W and his republican lead congress did from 2000-2006. Personally I'm fine with the republican core ideals, too bad there is no record of any of them sticking to them for the past 20 years. Maybe when McCain looses the Dem's pick up multiple Senate and House seats it will give the GOP an opportunity to retool there message and find a true leader, not the current looser they've got running.

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Batony:

See you guys must don't live in any of the Red States McCain needs to win.

The Repubs McCain needs to get out to vote or to come back on board...don't care about an endorsement from Powell or Rino, as they call him. William Weld, former governor of Mass? Are you kidding? We are talking about the states of NC, FL, OH, MO, CO, Va, Ind, and NV. And they certainly don't give a damn about "media elite" endorsements.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

In news directly related to this election: The Dow is currently down 433 points. It's sad that this seems like a normal day now.

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Thatcher:

@Botany -

based upon everything you've posted that I've seen - I would have NEVER pegged you as an independent. NEVER.

However - I never put the McCain campaign and race baiting in the same sentence - John Moody, executive vice president at Fox News, did: "If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting."

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BlueInTexas:

Agree Babbit. The worse part of the entire McCain campaign is ... well, McCain. I respected the guy and frankly - even though I'm liberal at heart - I was pulling for him in the primaries and if it had been a Clinton/McCain race; well, I would've been torn.

However, Obama won (who I have actually kept an eye on since the 2004 convention) and McCain won - I admit I was undecided still.

Then McCain proceed to isolate the moderates and solidified that by choosing Palin.

What does it say about a man so badly wanting to win that he's willing to lose in the process??

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

THE FLIGHT TO QUALITY CONTINUES:**********************************************
Reagan Appointee and (Recent) McCain Adviser Charles Fried Supports Obama

Charles Fried, a professor at Harvard Law School, has long been one of the most important conservative thinkers in the United States. Under President Reagan, he served, with great distinction, as Solicitor General of the United States. Since then, he has been prominently associated with several Republican leaders and candidates, most recently John McCain, for whom he expressed his enthusiastic support in January.

This week, Fried announced that he has voted for Obama-Biden by absentee ballot. In his letter to Trevor Potter, the General Counsel to the McCain-Palin campaign, he asked that his name be removed from the several campaign-related committees on which he serves. In that letter, he said that chief among the reasons for his decision "is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis."

Fried is exceptionally thoughtful and principled; his vote for Obama is especially noteworthy.

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fed:

WOOOW Talking about finger pointing and the GOP getting out of control!!!!! This is from CNN


John McCain’s campaign says the narrowing path to victory this fall runs straight through Pennsylvania, where he trails Barack Obama by double digits in the most recent CNN poll of polls. Now the state’s former governor says that if he were on the Republican ticket, the road to the White House might have been a less bumpy one.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

@ Boomshak

That's the problem. It seems the Republican standard for a "strong" economy is when at least one person in the United States owns a home and has a job.

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timontheleft:

@DecaturMark

Have you voted yet? How long did you have to wait? Your in DeKalb I assume?

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PortlandRocks:

The sad news for McCain is now the rape victim story who WORKS for his campaign will take up the rest of the day's news cycle.:) She helped alot!

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Thatcher:

@NYCREALAMERICAN -

I know ... isn't the great!

Everyone is getting off the McTitanic ... except for Boom and his buddies.

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DecaturMark:

the "Drill, Baby, Drill" mantra has been proven to be the wrong way to go. "Conserve, Baby, Conserve" has brought down the price of oil in less time than it would take to oil companies to build one new well. Unless, you free marketers want to admit that it was the speculators that were the cause of the increase in oil prices.

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BlueInTexas:

@PortlandRocks

The sad news for McCain is now the rape victim story who WORKS for his campaign will take up the rest of the day's news cycle.:) She helped alot!

She's probably related to Palin...

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carl29:

The truth will set you free!!!!!!!:-)

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gymble:

@Batony

In theory, I agree that the race will tighten. In practice, I have yet to see it. Obama's in a much better position than any candidate has been since 1996. Even my husband, the eternal pessimist who was still expecting McCain to win a few weeks ago, believes that now.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

What that worker did has an insidious racist undertone...essentially trying to make people thing that all of those "thugs" in the "ghetto" exemplify the typical Obama supporter. I hope she goes to jail for lying to the police, among other things.

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PortlandRocks:

Well Plain would have, per FACT, made that girl pay for her own rape kit if the story were true.

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carl29:

It is a hoax and police just confirmed it. No way this can be good news for McCain camp in PA. Obama/Biden '08

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BlueInTexas:

ba-ZING!!!

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

the problem with your theory is that it is Independents in slightly leaning red states like VA and NC that McCain needs to appeal too. Everytime he tries to rally his base, which is mostly on board for him already, he alienates the independents.

If you go by the theory that McCain's priority is a large Republican turnout, you're right. But that is NOT his priority. He needs the independents, and most of them have already made up their minds. These independents DO care about endorsements and DO pay attention to the media.

My question to you is this: how many points do you expect this race to tighten to? Personally, my opinion is it might go from about +7 to +5 for Obama by election day. I think there will be SLIGHT tightening. But there is no real reason to think that the race might not tighten at all. For all we know, in a change year, many of the few undecideds remaining might in fact break towards Obama over the last 9 days. I've been waiting for this race to "tighten" for 2 weeks...and everytime is looks like its trying, Obama blows the thing wide open again.

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carl29:

I am dying to see the faces of those Independent voters in PA. WOW!!!!!!!

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johncoz:

Batony,

When one candidate is clearly ahead the actual result on election day is often a point or two tighter than the polls show. This effect can be modelled using a mean regression (as incorporated in 538's model, for instance).

At this point in time, however, such a narrowing will merely affect the extent of the landslide. The entire momentum is against McCain. Have another look at the graph I linked above:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3202/2969900424_303482e36c_b.jpg

When someone is this far behind, every day seems to bring another bad news story (today that silly girl's race-baiting), while the leader seems near invulnerable. That's just the way things work.

It's too late, far too late, for McCain to recover.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Sort of like a GEICO commercial:

"We'll I made that story up, and further weakened an already endangered Presidential campaign. But, there is good news, I just saved on having to pay for the investigation in Sarah Palin's America.

____________________

douglasdao:

Drudge does have the Pittsburgh PD statement about Todd admitting she made it up as his top story.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I don't think it will tighten. In fact, I will make a prediction and I never do.

Obama will have an RCP average of 6.5 or better heading into election day. This will be a 5% increase from Bush in 2004 on the RCP average.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

*But there are reasons to think the race might not tighten at all.

sorry.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@timontheleft

Yes, I am in Dekalb. I voted on Wednesday at about 4:30. Had to wait for 1 and 1/2 hours and there was still a similar wait when I left. The crowd was overwhemingly Obama. How do I know? 85% were AA. I am white, BTW. We all had a good time.

____________________

Thatcher:

@kerrchdavis -

Yes, actually - if you think about it ... Reagan is always brought up to prove tightening. However, 1980 was a change year, itself. So, Reagan didn't "tighten" as much as "surged" ... yes he started behind in the polls - but after the last debate, he surged. He was the candidate opposite of the party in power. Obama is the candidate opposite the party in power ...

So I think a surge is just as likely as tightening this year. but maintaining at 6-8% is probably most likely.

____________________

hou04:

Anyone has a full list of Obama's schedule for Sunday and the final week?

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Hahaha oh my gosh, she's from College Station, that makes way too much sense. Another stupid Aggie.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27350530/

____________________

BlueInTexas:

The other part of the problem with a high Republican turnout is that right now there is a underlying 'defeatism' in many. Even here in Texas - most realize that McCain won't win the election, so why vote?

Which is fine with me since I already voted for Obama!

____________________

carl29:

Police will file charges against that racist liar. OMG!!!!!!!

____________________

SoloBJ:

@carl29:
Has it really been confirmed that she lied? I read where some "anonymous sources" said her story was a hoax but to "stay tuned" for more updates and an official confirmation.

____________________

BrookLynda:

Note to self: when carving letters into face to create a hoax, remember that things appear backwards in the mirror.

Charles Fried endorsed BHO? I think the next thing is McCain is going to endorse Obama.

____________________

jamesia:

Wow! Thank you Ashley Todd! I will never vote GOP again.

____________________

blakec:

Police sources tell KDKA that a campaign worker has now confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter "B" in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker.

Ashley Todd, 20, of Texas, initially told police that she was robbed at an ATM in Bloomfield and that the suspect became enraged and started beating her after seeing her GOP sticker on her car.

Police investigating the alleged attack, however, began to notice some inconsistencies in her story and administered a polygraph test.

Authorities, however, declined to release the results of that test.

Investigators did say that they received photos from the ATM machine and "the photographs were verified as not being the victim making the transaction."

This afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told KDKA Investigator Marty Griffin that Todd confessed to making up the story.

The commander added that Todd will face charges; but police have not commented on what those charges will be.

According to police, investigators working on the interview process detected several inconsistencies in Todd's story that differed from statements made in the original police report.

Pittsburgh Police Public Information Officer Diane Richard released a statement earlier today, saying: "Because of the inconsistencies in her statements, Ms. Todd was asked to submit to a polygraph examination which she agreed to do."

No photos of Todd are being released by Pittsburgh Police at this time.

The investigation is continuing as officials determine what charges will be filed.
http://kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Jordan - you didn't know? Gig'em indeed... XD

____________________

timontheleft:

@DecaturMark

I was just wondering; I've heard the lines were long all over. I'm in Cobb, and I haven't voted yet. Probably should, but there is just something about doing on election day.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Making up a story that you got assaulted and then blaming it on a "large black man"? Can you be anymore 1880's style racist?

____________________

carl29:

SoloBJ,

AP is reporting that sources in the Pit. PD confirmed that she already confessed and will face charges.

Here is the link:

http://kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

The College Republicans have already removed her blog.

http://lifeinthefield.com/users/ashley-todd

____________________

Nowukkers:

Boom:
This "sky will fall" routine is tiresome. In case you hadn't noticed, the sky has already fallen, on your boy's watch. He had a monopoly on all three branches of goverment for six years and all he could do was spout bumper-sticker mantras, and dole out corporate goodies for those who brought him to the dance. I don't see McCain doing any different. Time's up GOP ... please go now.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

you know its not the GOP's year when the stuff they make up actually starts backfiring for a change.

____________________

Nhoj:

boom you are right that the US is center/right however the democrats are the center right party in this country the republicans have become the rightwing party.

____________________

carl29:

Thank you dear Ashley. God Bless you little racist liar :-)!!!!!! Obama/Biden '08

____________________

DecaturMark:

@timontheleft

Just as long as you vote. They all count.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

More proof that College Republicans and "Young Conservatives" are literally one of the worst groups of people in existence. There is an annoying minority of them on my campus and they are just really obnoxious because they realize that they are fighting a losing cause.

____________________

Batony:

As far as my independent credentials go...well I am. On this site though since it is not balanced, I have to be some sort of voice of reason.

McCain has ran a horrid campaign. I don't think the Palin pick was bad at all, they just didn't know how to use her. If McCain loses it will be b/c of one event: The suspension of his campaign and wanting to cancel the 1st debate. Apparently Steve Schmidt who will turn out to be the biggest ass of all, thought it was a good idea. Also the use of Ayers instead of Wright is beyond dumb. Fortunately for McCain there are still days left. I've been wrong so often in politics trying to predict an outcome, that this year I will not.


Here is how one person thinks McCain can win, I have other thoughts.


"1.) We’re at the point in the race when national trends may start diverging from trends in battleground states where McCain is still competing. After all, having an active campaign in a state makes a big difference. Just look at Michigan since McCain pulled out in early October. According to RCP, Obama is up 1.5 points nationally since October 2, but nearly 4.8 points in Michigan.

McCain is husbanding his resources for the absolute minimum number of electoral votes he needs to win, which means ignoring the national numbers and focusing on everything from Virginia on down the list of battlegrounds. There’s no reason to think he couldn’t lose the popular vote by 2-3 points but still win Virginia by 1.

2.) State polls seem to lag national polls, one-off polls tend to lag tracking polls, and polling averages (like the kind you find at RCP, Pollster.com, and FiveThirtyEight) lag any single poll by design. Which is to say, those state-level averages could easily be 5-7 days behind the current on-the-ground reality.

3.) While eight points is a lot to make up in two weeks, it’s not nearly as daunting over three weeks–well under half a point a day (.38, but who’s counting?). Or put differently: If, as some analysts** believe, the momentum shifted somewhat toward McCain last week, then Virginia could actually be much closer than 8 points today. We just wouldn’t know it till next week."

Time will tell.

@DecaturMark

You may actually have a point about people giving the Democrats is Washington a chance, we will see.

____________________

Stonecreek:

Anyone here want to talk about polls, or is your interest only in throwing epithets at a moron? If you're interested in polls:

What are these screwy numbers (not percentages) in Gallup's RV vs. LV1 and LV2? For several days now, the LV "traditional" has been a higher number than the LV "expanded". That certainly seems backwards.

Also, while the N for RVs has been between 2700 and 2800, the numbers for both the LV "traditional" and LV "expanded" have been in the 2100-2200 range. Today, suddenly the LV "traditional" is over 2400 and LV "expanded" is 2365, both much higher percentages of the RV number than in the last several days.

Gallup has offered no expanation for this discrepancy, and frankly, it makes me wonder.

Anyone want to take a shot at rationalizing these numbers?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow this woman is ****ING CRAZY! Can anyone that speaks for McCain look REASONABLE?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-uptake/michele-bachmann-not-all_b_137463.html

____________________

kerrchdavis:

It is fitting that Boom supported Romney, probably the biggest loser of them all. He had a great opportunity to seal his party's nomination but then got destroyed by an old cripple who can't even run a consistent campaign.

Losers support losers, plain and simple.

____________________

Trosen:

Wow.. Fox is reporting live from my old City Hall.. I just drove by there. 4 hour waits for early voting. Lots and LOTS of AAs and Jewish voters. =)

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/24/mugging-hoax/

"If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting."

This, from none other than the Executive VP of Fox News.

Looks like it's over.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Well, while I for one won't exhale till after election day. I do wonder about the 'aftershock' for many Americans.

Let's face it, we've never elected anything other than a white president. I'd LIKE to think that the country is mature enough to handle it.

However, seeing some of those rallies on the GOP side make me worry about some of the wackaloons. It only takes one, I'm afraid.

It's gonna be an interesting holiday season for sure...

____________________

joethedummer:

everyday boomsoncrack tells us this or thats gonna happen and the polls are gonna shift to mcsame tommorow, yet tommorow always comes and mcsame is always losing by a ton.....

____________________

oicu:

@boomshak:

McCain will pick up a point in all the trackers between now and Nov4 to be in the lead on election day.

The McCain "unlimited liberal power" idea will stick because America is a center/right country.

This won't work. McCain has not run as any sort of centrist or center-right candidate. He ran hard to the right during the primaries and stayed there with his VP pick. That's why this he's losing, and it's why this line won't work.

It actually doesn't matter much what he says now. Nobody that matters much is listening to him any more. He's turned off the indie voters in droves.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/24/mugging-hoax/

"If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting."

This, from none other than the Executive VP of Fox News.

Looks like it's over.

____________________

orange24:

This racist woman in Texas is really going to sink the McCain campaign. First and foremost, she's a racist, liar, felon. Secon, McCain and Palin both called her personally, and must now admonish her and distance themselves from it. Worse yet, they're in a position to defend that 'that's not what their campaign is all about'. Finally, it dominates the weekend news cycle (as it should) when every single news cycle day is crucial to McCain - especially when Obama is not campaigning. He had the news cycle all to himself today, and it blew up in his face because of one of the racist lunatics that he is whipping into a frenzy at every rally. What goes around comes around...

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@PortlandRocks

You are just hearing about that now?

She's been flailing around for days and according to Colin Powell is the primary reason he decided to endorse Obama.

I think her husband runs a counseling service where you can "pray away the gay" and she is obviously a member of the stepford wives for jesus club.

Yeah I donated to Tinklenberg's campaign the day after she went on Hardball and basically grabbed hold of the Joe McCarthy political third-rail. Her opponent has raised over $1M dollars since her little rant and the RNC just pulled her ad funding. The RNC can't even be seen supporting her.

Somewhere Karl Rove is weeping softly...

____________________

masselo:

I can garantee you that the mccain campaingn is up to this somehow --- they told this racist bitch to make up this story -- she will confess the whole story sonner or later -- i hope she does it before election day -- shame on them !!!!

____________________

Trosen

Where's that at?

Now let's hope all those votes actually get counted!

____________________

PJ_FFM:

@Stonecreek

I'd suspect an adjustment of the actual (randomly) polled sample to

step 1) put them into accordance with the demographics of the population in general (or maybe as "step 0)" into accordance with the demographics of the people registered to vote) and then

step 2) fit these numbers into the models of "likeliness" of voting, which are both based on certain different demographic compositions.

At least that's what I would do if I were Gallup or Rasmussen or some othe SERIOUS polling company...

____________________

hou04:

Look at the headlines on IBD website... people that bring us the IBD/TIPP poll.

All headlines Obama-negative.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/

Explains their poll numbers, too. McCain winning the youth vote by 52 points.

____________________

jamesia:

Nhoj:

Good point. The Republican Party is now far right, the Democratic Party is now center right. There are no viable left wing parties in the US. Just compare our political parties to every other industrialized nation in the world... We have no left wing party. But that is changing.

____________________

Obama008:

This girl faking this crime could end up hurting McCain very bad. I hope a indenpent group kinda picks this up and goes with it in western PA.

People in PA dont like the far right or far left, and this just points out that the far right will do what ever it takes to win.

Also I do hope Obama and Biden come back here in PA and seal the deal her.

____________________

miatch:

Excellent collection of BOOM-tastic BS about Obama... Worth the read and chuckle:

http://jonswift.blogspot.com/2008/10/great-moments-in-election-year-blogging.html

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Please do remember that people in College Station/Texas A&M/Junior colleges that feed into A&M (which I believe is where she was at) do not reflect all Texans. Everyone who is not affiliated with that school despises the bad rap they give our state (remember the "Joe Paterno needs a casket" incident at an A&M rally last year)

____________________

ctj:

When does the ridiculous IBD poll come out? You know the one that shows McCain LEADING among the youngest voters 73-27?

____________________

boom&KipTinSUCK:

BREAKING NEWS:

Ashley is boom's wife, say/do anything to help the old fart

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

"This girl faking this crime could end up hurting McCain very bad."

And if it turns out that the campaign had anything, absolutely anything to do with it then they'll be forever remembered as the worst major presidential campaign of the century.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

@Jordan

I do - tactless to say the least. Hmm, it's probably not enough to shift Texas blue; but I wonder how much play the Hoax Story will get here.

____________________

carl29:

Forget it, independent/moderate-Rep. people in PA won't like what is coming out of the McCain campaign. WOW!!!!!!!

This is not going to set well among educated people in the burbs.

____________________

Trosen:

Jordan.. I doubt that. (Not that it isn't already "over" regardless). Unless they link the whole hoax to an orchestrated deal by the McCain campaign or RNC, this is nothing more than a histrionic chick grabbing her "15 minutes."

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Maybe the DNC should send her a 'Thank You for PA' card?

____________________

political_junki:

When it rains it pours
Seems like McCain just can't catch a break.

Pittsburgh station KDKA reports that Ashley Todd, the 20-year-old McCain volunteer who claims to have been mugged by a black man and had a "B" carved in her face, today admitted to fabricating the attack.

In short: It's like a political version of the Susan Smith or Charles Stuart stories

Drudge gave big play to the incident, and both McCain and Palin called the girl's family. Obama's campaign issued a statement expressing concern and calling for a prosecution of the assailant.

Police sources tell KDKA that a campaign worker has now confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter "B" in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker.

Ashley Todd, 20, of Texas, initially told police that she was robbed at an ATM in Bloomfield and that the suspect became enraged and started beating her after seeing her GOP sticker on her car.

Police investigating the alleged attack, however, began to notice some inconsistencies in her story and administered a polygraph test.

Authorities, however, declined to release the results of that test.

Investigators did say that they received photos from the ATM machine and "the photographs were verified as not being the victim making the transaction."

This afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told KDKA Investigator Marty Griffin that Todd confessed to making up the story.

The commander added that Todd will face charges; but police have not commented on what those charges will be.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Republicans wont care if Ashley is stupid or crazy. If shes attractive, they'll vote for her.

____________________

I don't agree that it's nothing more than a histrionics chick grabbing her 15 minutes. Why? Because she worked for the McCain campaign. It doesn't matter if she acted alone on this. It's no different than if she had ACTUALLY been attacked and how people would have viewed Obama supporters and perhaps taken a closer look at Obama....

Her doing this says something about McCain supporters and who their candidate is... how they handled their campaign about anti-American states, pro-American states, he's not one of us, etc etc. I think Ms. Ashley faking this crime has the same effect on McCain as her being actually attacked would have had on Obama.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

You're right, it's not over. But things go Obama's way people will point at dozens of desperate incidents, this among them.

I hope the story gets a lot of press here. I would love to see a close race here in a place that no one ever thought would be close. Last RAS poll has Obama within 10.

____________________

political_junki:

October 24, 2008
Categories: Fox News Channel

Fox exec: Alleged mugging will decide race
Fox's executive Vice President for News, John Moody, last night cast the alleged mugging in Pittsburgh as a watershed in the race:

If Ms. Todd’s allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee.

If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.

The reality, I think, was that times have changed enough that this story -- for all its racial edge, and for all the outrage of it having been faked -- was never going to determine the election. But the false, and racially-charged, allegation by a McCain volunteer isn't going to help him in Pennsylvania.

____________________

Rollin08:

Bad day for McCain..

____________________

BlueInTexas:

One the plus side for McCain - he can at least head back to Arizona in a few days and not have to worry about moving stuff to DC...

____________________

blakec:

Whats funny is how quick this fake attack goes from some indictment of Obama to just some crazy chick that McCain doesn't know.

Spin spin spin.

If it's one crazy individual then it should always have been one crazy individual. The alledged attacker had nothing to do with Obama in anyway. So why was everyone so quick to pin something on Obama?

It does reflect on McCain just as much as it being true would have reflected on Obama. In fact it reflects more since she does work for the campaign.

____________________

Batony:

We here in the punditry...believe any little thing will hurt a candidate. This lady lying will have no effect on independents. We are independents for a reason: We think. We research. That's why the Ayers BS is not working.

The left wing of the Democratic Party is gone. For one thing there are just too many factions. Blacks right now are at the height of their power in the party, but waiting for an opening are the hispanics. Now the black and Hispanic elites will ignore the simmering tensions between the two races until it's too late I fear.

____________________

blakec

Exactly bro! I couldn't agree more and it's what I was saying in my post too. Glad to see there's others out there who see it that way. And it's exactly that... SPIN!

____________________

blakec:

@Batony

"For one thing there are just too many factions. Blacks right now are at the height of their power in the party, but waiting for an opening are the hispanics. Now the black and Hispanic elites will ignore the simmering tensions between the two races until it's too late I fear."

sniff sniff.... smells like race baiting...looks like race baiting...walks like race baiting....

Must be concern trolling.

____________________

Florida Obamocon:

People make decisions based on emotion, then they back it up with logic.


The last couple of elections were based on fear, backed up with "the Republicans will make me safe" logic.


The emotion of this election is perceived serenity in the face of an uncertain economic future. Both economic plans are remarkably similar. Big government, FDR style "New Deal" Politics, Tax Breaks and the like. The backing up logic can go for either candidate. However on the McCain side you have nothing but invisiveness everywhere you turn.

  • Bachman
  • Lionization of false Joe the Plumber
  • Everything Sarah Palin
  • Joe the Mugger Hoax
  • etc...
All the electorate sees is backbiting invisiveness on one side and serenity on the other. My biased bet is nothing but surge here on out. 375 electoral votes? Hardly, 401 is within the realm of possibility.

____________________

gymble:

@Batony

The list of ways in which McCain can win seems a bit behind the times. a) He's got ten days, not three weeks and STILL isn't any closer to Obama in the polls. b) State polls don't explicitly follow national polls, but they're not entirely independent either. c) If there were a few polls showing a minuscule momentum shift to McCain, they've now shifted back. My personal take on it is that things have more or less plateaued. d) Finally, McCain still needs to take ALL the states even sorta in play (NV, CO, MT, ND, OH, MO, VA, NC, FL). Losing just one loses him the election. Obama only needs one of them. I won't say that McCain winning is impossible, but with every day that goes by, he needs more of a miracle to do it.

I don't think that the idiot who faked a mugging will have a whole lot of effect on the race. Or, at least, she shouldn't. I wish that "should" and "will" didn't diverge so often. In any case, I don't feel comfortable with blaming McCain for this particular nut.

____________________

Batony:

The one thing that worries me about this type of behavior, is what the blacks who live in these racist areas of the country may face with Obama as President.

____________________

Mister H.:

From Boomshak:
Gasoline will be under $2 a gallon by election day. That benefits McCain.


First of all, it won't be. It would have to drop almost an average of a $1 per gallon.....Statistically, it can't do that in two weeks.

Secondly, exactly how would that benefit McCain?

____________________

laguna_b:

@batony

If we were in 1941 and YOUR style of divisiveness and back biting were th rule, we would have LOST WWII. We now face greater challenges in the economy and energy and we need a REAL uniter, not another parser and didide to conquer...we ALL need health care, alternative energy, financial stability etc etc etc.....and your circus master McCain is NOT a leader and NOT the person who should be in office. Obama is THE man of the hour and given the ability to stretch his wings we will recover and prosper in peace. Lacking that life will not be worth a ****....

____________________

whitetower:

What moron would claim that Joe the Plumber is a a "false plumber?"

He's been a plumber for 15 years.

Regardless, the issue was Obama's admission to "want to spread the wealth around," i.e. that he accepts socialist premises about the economy and society.

____________________

hou04:

IBD/TIPP

Obama 46
McCain 42

____________________

laguna_b:

@whitetower:

Seems you didn't notice that the republicans have spread the wealth around, but mainly to thier contributors. The seperation between the middle and the top is more like the Middle Ages than the enlightenment. Taxing and spending policies are ALWAYS moving wealth around. It just happens that the VERY rich have a huge preponderance of it now and the rest are left to eat cake. PLEASE don't talk to me of meritocracy when those respnsible for our current catastrophic situation are the ones who continue to profit from it. Our capitalist system has been gamed by crooks and needs to be fixed. That is not socialism. Socialism is when you bail them out and nationalize the banks!

____________________

Florida Obamocon:

@whitetower

I didn't say he was a false plumber, I said he was false. There is a difference. He walked up to Obama and lied through his teeth about everything and was then Lionized by the wing-nuts. He is simply "False". I imagine Whitetower that you live somewhere in a home, your route to your home was probably paid for by "spreading the wealth around" tax dollars. Socialism is just another word that has been hijacked by the wing-nuts to speak fear to the sheeple.

Thanks for proving my point. Devisive is all they got.

____________________

whitetower:

@laguna
There is no such thing as "the wealth" -- the very concept is socialistic in the sense that it implies every individual's wealth really doesn't belong to him but somehow is "society's" to begin with.

Yes, some individuals are wealthy -- and they pay most of the taxes (the top 5% pays 60% of the tax burden) -- while some are poor.

Of course, nearly 35% of Americans choose not to work, a fact that goes a long way in explaining wealth disparities.

And, yes, a Republican president and a Democratic Congress (including both Obama and McCain) bailed out banks -- which makes both parties at least sympathetic to socialism.

Obama proclaims it in all but in name.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

"Of course, nearly 35% of Americans choose not to work"

Then why is the unemployment rate 6%?

Please go back to the narcissistic greed-loving hell that you crawled out of.

____________________

whitetower:

@Jordan
35% choose not to work -- and are not looking for work. Unemployment data only measures those not working but who are looking for work.

I would argue that someone who chooses not to work, but expects others to pay for his needs, is the one who suffers from greed and narcissism.

____________________

Florida Obamocon:

@Jordan

I appreciate your enthusiasm but calling him names isn't necessary :).

I for one would welcome a discussion with real numbers and statistics. At least logic can be argued in a spirited non-devisive manner.

@whitetower
Can you give me a link to a government run web-site showing your statistics. I would specifically like to know how much of that 35% is women (and men for that matter) who choose to stay home and raise the kids while their spouse becomes the breadwinner?

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Sorry, I've just gotten too involved with this stuff. I need to settle down. My apologies to Whitetower.

How many of those 35% are under 16 years of age?

____________________

whitetower:

@Obamocon
Sure: taxfoundation.org has extensive studies on this issue. They have not only national but state data as well.

It's all rather mind-numbing to see how shiftless and lazy a surprising number of Americans have become.

____________________

AtlantaBill:

@tar_heel:
"Only downside is the new NC poll from Ras, which has M up 50-48"

To the contrary, I consider a margin of O (-2) as very, very favorable for the O camp. O's superior ground game in my opinion will easily compensate for a deficit in this range. Winning a southern state will be a great joy but i must admit i'm concerned that should that happen the Boomer will have to be placed on suicide watch for the next 4 years.

____________________

gymble:

@whitetower

I kind of can't believe that I need to say this, but since when does "not having a job" = "expects other people to take care of them"? If you have a specific study proving that, then please link to it directly.

It's certainly true that the official unemployment number under-counts the actual unemployed for a variety of reasons. But you're making quite a leap in assuming that all those not counted are "shiftless and lazy" - are you trying to be deliberately insulting? If you're just trolling, cut it out. If you truly believe that, I'm not sure that I know what to say to you.

____________________

Florida Obamocon:

@whitetower

first thing I found on your site...

The amount of nontaxpayers started dramatically rising just after Bush took office. Going forward with the current taxplans offered. Under Obama that number would rise from 33% to 44%. Under McCain it would rise from 33% to 43%.

Another "False" argument. Both plans are bad as far as I'm concerned. But constantly playing the "socialism" card when in essence you are doing the same thing. It just smells bad.

Kind of like Joe the Plumber. No liscence. Tax-liens. No the business makes much less the 250k. And wait, it isn't for sale. "False" Joe the Plumber.

This is what the electorate sees, again and again and again

my source for the tax argument that you provided

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/americans-shouldnt-worry-about-the-bailout/

____________________

mac7396:

Sorry, this poll does not fit Boomshak's narrative of a tightening race. Fail!

____________________

Florida Obamocon:

@whitetower

sorry wrong link - this is the correct one
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/23631.html

in addition. A word about my brother and sister-in-law. They live in georgia. He drives a truck and she stays at home with 3 pre-k kids. I am certain that they are part of that statistic. I would venture to guess that they do not pay "income" tax, but they pay many others. I would love for them to participate in an economy that would allow them to be in a bracket where they did pay income tax. Just sayin :)

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scottkj:

SUCCEED!! Despite all these BS Polls, even Zogby's, he released his state polls that put MCCAIN in very good position and gaining!

Zogby Battleground Poll: McCain Regains Indiana; Obama Still Surpasses Electoral Threshold With 273
McCain Makes Gains in Several States
UTICA, New York - Zogby Interactive polling of 10 Presidential battleground states has shown John McCain capturing a significant lead - for the time being - in the state of Indiana, causing the Hoosier State to move from purple to Republican red. The move increases the ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin to 174 Electoral College votes in the Zogby calculation. With no other changes to our Electoral College Map (available at www.zogby.com), the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden have 273 Electoral votes, three more than needed for election.

McCain has gained ground in Virginia (13 Electoral votes), Missouri (11), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5) and Nevada (5), but not enough to change their status.

Electoral Vote Projection


Obama-Biden
273

McCain-Palin
174

Undecided
91

The 10 interactive online surveys included in this survey were conducted from October 17-20, 2008. The samples of likely voters ranged in size from 473 respondents in Indiana, where the margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points, to Florida, where 1,252 likely voters participated. The margin of error there is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "These results show that with the Obama advantage in the current state of the Electoral College, McCain will need to rally his troops in every time zone to impact all of the states he needs to overtake Obama."

Here are the details of the 10 states we surveyed.

States Moving from Undecided to McCain-Palin

Indiana (11)


McCain-Palin
52.8%

Obama-Biden
42.3%

Not Sure/Other
4.9%

Despite a big lead among independents, Obama appears unable to overcome the Republican enrollment advantage. So we make Indiana again red.

States Remaining for Obama

New Mexico (5)


Obama-Biden
46.1%

McCain-Palin
45.5%

Not Sure/Other
8.3%

McCain has gained since our last survey of New Mexico on Oct 9-13, closing the Obama lead among independents and doing better among Republicans than Obama is with Democrats. We will soon test the state again, and will wait for that to see whether a status change is called for.

Virginia (13)


Obama-Biden
49.7%

McCain-Palin
46.1%

Not Sure/Other
4.3%

Obama leads among independents and does slightly better among Democrats than McCain does with Republicans. Obama leads among all voters with family incomes under $100,000. Seniors go big for McCain.

States Remaining Undecided

Ohio (20)


McCain-Palin
49.3%

Obama-Biden
46.5%

Not Sure/Other
4.1%

McCain continues to hold a small lead in a state he must win. McCain leads by more than 10 among independents, Catholics and voters older than 50. Turnout will be especially important here in a state with early voting for President for the first time ever.

Colorado (9)


Obama-Biden
48.2%

McCain-Palin
47.9%

Not Sure/Other
3.9%

Loyalty to McCain from Republicans, who outnumber Democrats in Colorado, is keeping him toe-to-toe with Obama. However, Obama leads among independents by 19. McCain is also keeping it very close among voters ages 18-29.

Florida (27)


Obama-Biden
48.8%

McCain-Palin
45.2%

Not Sure/Other
6.0%

A double-digit lead among independents gives Obama a small lead. McCain counters with his advantages among religious voters and seniors. The race is even among Hispanics.

Missouri (11)


McCain-Palin
48.3%

Obama-Biden
48.0%

Not Sure/Other
4.6%

Both candidates run strongly with their base constituencies, and for now independents aren't breaking either way. So we have a tie.

North Carolina (15)


Obama-Biden
49.6%

McCain-Palin
46.5%

Not Sure/Other
3.8%

Large margins among independents and voters under age 35 join African-Americans to give Obama a small lead. North Carolina may have the nation's biggest gender gap. Men favor McCain, 57%-40%. Women choose Obama, 61%-36%.

New Hampshire (4)


Obama-Biden
46.5%

McCain-Palin
46.2%

Not Sure/Other
7.7%

Independents are tied and that is all you need to know. New Hampshire is too close to call.

Nevada (5)


McCain-Palin
51.5%

Obama-Biden
44.0%

Not Sure/Other
4.6%

This is a 7-point swing from our last interactive poll on Oct. 9-13. Obama's Democratic support has slipped, while McCain's Republican support has gone up. We'll keep Nevada undecided.

____________________

katocat:

@scottkj

LOL.

____________________

JMTMichigan:

Ok, I've finally figured out what's going on: much like the mythical Merlin, Boomshak is living his life backwards in time. So, for him, the polls ARE tightening, and I'm sure they will indeed be statistically tied by Sunday six months ago. :)


____________________

decided:

zogby internet polls:

throw a dart and see where it lands

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