Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: Obama 51, McCain 44 (Hotline 10/29-31)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/29-31,08; 876 LV 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 44

 

Comments
Obama's Pitbull:

8 TO 10 HOUR WAITS IN GEORGIA!!!!!!!

http://thepage.time.com/long-voting-lines-in-atlanta/

____________________

pbcrunch:

Wasn't GA the state where some Republican legislator's solution to the long lines for early voting was to eliminate early voting in future elections?

What a charming state...

____________________

BrookLynda:

Pollster John Zogby: Barack Obama to be 44th U.S. President

DEARBORN HEIGHTS/DEARBORN - Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will win Tuesday's election and become the next president of the United States, according to a recent poll conducted by Zogby International, an American market research and opinion-polling firm.

Their Reuters/C-SPAN/-Zogby Poll out Friday morning indicates the support for both candidates had solidified and remained unchanged from the previous several days. Obama was at 50.1 percent among likely voters, while McCain was at 43 percent. That put Obama outside the margin of error five days before the actual vote.

http://www.pressandguide.com/stories/110208/loc_20081102002.shtml

So much for that. I guess all is forgiven with Mr. Zogby?

____________________

sunnymi:


While it is great to know the voter enthusiasm..it is a shame on our voting infrastructure that voters have to spend a day to cast their vote....it is as good as a poll tax :-(

____________________

AtlantaBill:

i live here in the atl suburbs and the turn out is unblievalble .. went out on 2 occasions to vote but each time was confronted with lines of 3 - 4 hours. finally i decided to forgo the lines and take my chances on election day. i'm gambling that tues will be more accomodating but prepared to wait however long it takes.

one precaution i have however is that ga has those touch-screens and i'm afraid the fix will be in place to deny obama a victory here. hope that's not the case but that's the scary reality. that plus the fact that the state is totally controlled by repubs, leaves me less hopeful.

____________________

political_junki:

BrookLynda:
The date on that piece is tomorrows!! Nov 2??
Am I dreaming or you have a time machine?
Or
Zogby has his numbers ready for the next 3 days (more probable:) )

____________________

1magine:

Exactly. GA Sec of State is an embarassment to the State, the Country and the US Constit.

WHAT COULD BE MORE UN-AMERICAN, ANTI-AMERICAN, AND UNPATRIOTIC THAN GETTING IN THE WAY OF PEOPLE VOTING?

The word traitor comes to mind.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Here is the thing about early voting in GA. When early voting started several weeks ago, each county was only allowed 1 place in which one could vote. This last week, counties could open up more (Dekalb one of the most populous counties has only 5). The early voting is only M-F and Oct 31 was the last day. There will be no early voting on Monday. Also, the state computers that check voter registrations have crashed several times during this process.

The good news is that despite all of these obstacles, people are willing to wait in these long lines. These long lines are in heavy democratic areas. These voters are determined to make their vote count. It is for that reason that I am confident that Obama will shock people and win GA.

____________________

Thatcher:

You know - I think this year's high scrutiny on pollsters will have a beneficial effect for years to come. There is no previous example where the electorate has followed so closely the polling of a campaign.

And as such, we are seeing the chinks and dents that some of these pollsters try to polish over in their PR. However, due to this high public awareness - pollsters are going to have to re-evaluate their strategy and composition of their process or see their marketshare diminish.

Years ago, I would have bought a book by Zogby because of his always been touted as a mover/shaker in the industry. Today - you couldn't pay me (well, depends on how much) to read anything he writes.

____________________

merveilleux:

For some reason, after Kerry, I'd feel more comfortable if Zogby called it for McCain.

____________________

timontheleft:

What I can't believe is the Gov Purdue's response when being asked about extending early voting hours was that people shouldn't have procrastinated!

____________________

sunnymi:


For all those nervous about PA read this sanity check from Nate @ 538.com.

____________________

sunnymi:


For all those nervous about PA read this sanity check from Nate @ 538.com.

____________________

Jaq:

Well the Zogby quote was based on Friday's tracking results, which didn't include Zogby's sample from, apparently, the heart of Texas, so I'm sure he'll say something else before this is over.

Watching the media latch onto the one day Zogby numbers was kind of hilarious. And a bit sad, really.

____________________

zotz:

Ok everybody, John Zogby has announced that Obama has won the election. I guess that means we don't have to vote. Remember four years ago he was the first to proclaim that Kerry had won the election.

____________________

Robert:

I'm shocked by all the coverage this "aunt" story gets.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Unfortunately in GA, because of past voting irregularities and issues (suppression of AA voters and such), the state must get federal approval for any changes to the voting process. The Governor cannot unilaterally make any changes. Though Perdue is a Republican as is the SOS, they could have petitioned the Feds to enable them to make appropriate adjustments when they saw that voting turnout was growing.

____________________

AtlantaBill:

@DecaturMark

yea Mark but do you really think the repub officials will stand by and allow that to happen when they have those touch screens with absolutely no paper trail. i think they are made by diebold, a republican led company that has vowed back 2004 to assist OH in stealing 'that one'. i simply do not believe they will let this one slip away and will cheat to any extent necessary to deny a victory to BO. hope i'm wrong but am simply being realistic. for that reason i'm more hopeful of our chances in VA and NC this cycle and of course winning either (ga, nc, or va) almost certainly guarantees a victory in my opinion.

assuming BO wins, i hope election reform will be at the top of his agenda.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

So far 4 daily trackers have reported -- Zogby, Kos, Ras and Hotline. Looked at synoptically, 3 give Obama 51, one gives him 49 (Zogby}. Similarly, 3 give McCain 44, one gives him 46 (Ras). From this perspective, it seems that 51-44, which represents a 7 point Obama lead, is where things are settling out.

____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

* US: Obama 51, McCain 44 (Hotline 10/29-31)
* US: Obama 51, McCain (46) (Rasmussen 10/29-31)
* US: Obama 51, McCain 44 (Daily Kos 10/29-31)
* US: Obama (49), McCain 44 (Zogby 10/29-31)

=> The accurate result should be 51/44

____________________

BUS:

If Ayers didn't swing anyone, I'd be surprised if this aunt story makes even a tiny dent. I mean, how is he responsible for her actions?! Its just bizarre. Another excuse to try and smear him as 'foreign'. Disgusting. McCain should salvage what little remains of his hnour and steer well clear.

____________________

tom brady:

As usual with Nate Silver, he lets his political bias color his interpretation of the numbers. The simple fact is this: Obama's chances of winning the election are better if he wins Pennsylvania than if he loses it. In my view, he ought to be pouring resources into that state, rather than into Arizona, to snuff out any chance McCain has of pulling an upset. I think too many people are lulled into complacency when reading Silver's site because of the false precision conveyed by his numbers. There's simply no way that the probabilities that he presents regarding "win percentages" are as precise as he would like us to believe.

____________________

merveilleux:

My only concern is the contributions. I hope he refunds them immediately and this gets buried.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@AtlantaBill:

I am concerned that there is no paper trail for these machines; however, I am hopeful that Obama will garner enough votes to assure a positive outcome. I would like to see all states work for a more secure and reliable voting process. It needs to be done in an off election year so that we do not have all these issues during a General Election cycle.

____________________

sunnymi:


@tom brady:
Anyone who has followed Obama's campaign for the last year knows this:
If they are spending resources in AZ, ND and GA i t means they have PA and other states that matter covered..they are using the excess money/volunteers they have for AZ not cutting back from PA.

McCain has nowhere to go so he is camped in PA.

____________________

ctj:

TO ALL MY FIRENDS AND FELLOW OBAMA SUPPORTERS- STOP GOING CRAZY AND FRETTING OVER PENNSYLVANIA! YOU ARE LETTING YOUR EMOTIONS AND FEELINGS GET IN THE WAY OF FACTS!

1. Any of you who thought that Obama was going to win PA by double digits were and are smoking some serious dope! PA just is not that kind of a state in presidential elections-

FACT- In the last 11 presidential elections the only 2 times the PA popular votes could be considered mind blowing, eye catching, enormous landslides were LYNDON JOHNSON in 64 and RICHARD NIXON in 72 (2 of the biggest national landslides on record). Even RONALD REAGAN in 1984 only won PA by 7 points whle winning the national popular vote by a whopping 18 points!

2- DON'T FORGET OBAMA'S FIREWALL! Obama is going to win PA the same way every other democrat wins PA- BY RUNNING UP HUGE MARGINS IN PHILLY AND THE SUBURBS!

FACT- In order for McCain to win he would have to beat Obama 70-30 in the rest of the state (excluding Pittsburgh) and barring some crazy event that just is not going to happen!

3. SHOW ME ONE PA POLL IN THE LAST 6 WEEKS WHERE MCCAIN HAS LED?

FACT- THERE ARE NONE!!!

KEEP THE FAITH- PA STAYS BLUE!!!

____________________

fed:

McCain just lost the election. CNN has Cheney campaigning live for McCain. LOL

____________________

merveilleux:

That 80% number still boggles me. Kerry took AAs 84% in PA, does anyone seriously believe he'd win more AAs than Obama?

____________________

Dana Adini:

guys relax with PA.. what people should focus on is

Iowa
NM
Col
NV

those 4 state HAVE TURNED BLUE. looking at early voting #'s and poll internals leaves very little doubt. In Colorado almost 75% of 2004 numbers have voted. that's 26 EV.

The McCain campaign has all but given up. They are streched thin and are not even going west.

Their ONLY hope is to win PA AND all of the following (VA and NC and MO and OH and FL and GA)

If Obama wins PA this baby is over real early

____________________

jeric:

merveilleux,

I don't think the contributions thing has legs either. She only donated $260, so it's no problem for Obama to return the money or give it to charity. Bloggers are trying to tie this to a broader allegation that Obama has been accepting illegal donations, but so far they haven't actually presented any evidence of that besides what his aunt gave. If they wanted the nation to pay attention they would have had to come up with more evidence and make a case against him by now, rather than blaming the media for not investigating it. At this point it's just too late for them to try anything.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

Has anyone detected an increase in the enthusiasm of the McCain/Palin camp (eg, at their rallies), and a corresponding decrease in the enthusiasm of the Obama camp?

____________________

Kile Thomson:

VP Cheney is campaigning in WY

wow

____________________

BrookLynda:

FWIW, I think Team BHO feels pretty good about PA.

On Tuesday they are sending me to Wilkes-Barre in Luzerne County (I'm an attorney volunteering for vote-protection duty).

I checked, and Kerry carried Luzerne handily, 70K to 65K in '04. In other words, they are sending their late-arriving volunteers to safely blue precincts.

What do you make of that?

____________________

Pat:

@Robert:
I'm shocked by all the coverage this "aunt" story gets.

Are you trying to put emphasis on this story by posting it here?

I have been watching MSNBC and CNN and have not seen anything yet. Are you watching Fox??

____________________

Thatcher:

@NorthernObserver:

enthusiasm comment.

Answer is no.

When Obama can still pull 9,000+ in the pouring rain while McCain cancels and at another rally busses in 2/3's of the audience from school children in area schools and the confirmed lies McCain camp puts out about its rally numbers - the enthusiasm gap is still on Obama's side.

____________________

merveilleux:

@BrookLynda

It sounds like they feel confident with the margin but want to make sure they're counted.

OT: Palin seems to be sticking to her "wars we've almost won" speech so far, no mention of any aunts.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Pat -

Of course he is ... this is a "troll"-like comment. No opinion - just "shock".

Obama has already stated he didn't know she was here illegally and has stated the law should be followed.

____________________

Robert:

@Pat

I have not been able to watch the TV coverage today, but it's among the lead stories on all major news channels sites, which is kind of surprising. I never saw Palin's husband independentist opinions as a lead story

____________________

maddiekat:

Pat

i am actually surprised how little coverage the story is getting! I think the McCain camp realized pushing this story would be a very bad idea!

____________________

Robert:

@Thatcher

You're way overconfident. Do you really think a comment like that will do it? My guess is the McCain camp isn't sure if this a story they should attack. We'll se today.

____________________

Pat:

@NorthernObserver:
Has anyone detected an increase in the enthusiasm of the McCain/Palin camp (eg, at their rallies), and a corresponding decrease in the enthusiasm of the Obama camp?

KEEP DREAMING.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

McCain's "path to victory"

1. Lose by a slim margin
2. Cry fraud
3. Fight it out in the courts

It won't work, for obvious reasons:

1. Obama's win margin won't be slim
2. They'll cry fraud anyway (which will sound ridiculous given the landslide)
3. No money or manpower to fight in the courts

____________________

fed:

Do you guys think the McCain campaign knew that Cheney was going to campaign for them today? I can't believe they are too happy about it.

____________________

Eternal:

Zogby is just chasing headlines trying to sell access to his reports. Some pollsters let the data stand for it self, Zogby is trying to sell speaking engagements. Now that he he got is 15 minutes with the "McCain Leads" poll, he has to try to scramble back to the middle to save face.

In other words, nothing to see here. As a democrat I would prefer if his "McCain Leads" talking point would swamp the airwaves to create question with Obama supporters, making sure all vote.

____________________

Dana Adini:

zogby is a joke. enough said

____________________

Thatcher:

@Robert -

I'm not "overconfident" ... I'm a realist.

In 2000 Bush admitted to the late breaking story about his DUI on November 2, 2000 (5 days prior to the election). It didn't get tracking in a week back then.

This aunt story comes out 3 days prior to this election - no reporting agency can get official documentation until Monday - so until then it is still developing. It can't get the legs it would need to do anything. And this is a far-removed relative. Remember Roger Clinton? Remember Billy Carter? Remember Neil Bush?

Ayers never got much traction, Wright is no longer a concern, Khalidi is a nonexistent blip.

People aren't looking for guilt by association in 2008. They are looking for help and guidance and leadership.

____________________

masselo:

what yall think about GA -- yall think Obama got a shot at it?

____________________

radmod:

BarackO'Clinton:

"3. Fight it out in the courts"

You may be right there. Expect at least one lawsuit claiming Obama is ineligible because (of the disproven assertion that) he wasn't born in the U.S. From what I read, it seems a lawsuit can't be filed unless he wins. I don't get that but it does sound like the way the law sometimes works.

____________________

WillPearson:

Obama leading by only FOUR in penn. in latest Ras poll.

51-47

____________________

Dana Adini:

and if his half aunt is here illegally so what?

why is this a story? what was he supposed to do sponsor her? lobby on her behalf?

this will go away by tonight

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@WillPearson

Late arrival eh? The poll has McCain getting 20% AA vote (more than Bush in 04) and that accounts for the movement.

____________________

Angus Mc:

The "Zogby story" link was yesterday's Zogby numbers when Obama was up by 7. It said Zogby based on interviews Oct. 27-29.

____________________

Thatcher:

@radmod:

Puhleazzz.

1) Obama was born in the US. OFFICAL Birth certificate proves it. Honolulu newspaper announcement confirms it.

2) Do you REALLLLLYYYYY think that the DNC would allow someone to make a serious run for President that didn't qualify constitutionally? With all the money, time, resources involved. WOULD YOU MAKE A 1/2 billion to 3/4 billion dollar investment without doing some research?

3) Don't you think the Bush administration, acting in the public's best interest, would have made a statement to the US if it Obama's birth was questionable?

Common Sense people ... use common sense. (Doesn't seem to be very common, anymore)

____________________

ericsp28:

I would also point out, if, in the exteremely unlikely case that the courts find that Obama is not a citizen after he wins the elction, Biden would be sworn in as president on inauguration day.

____________________

DCDemocrat:

This illegal alien aunt story is silly. My brother has a history of illicit drug use. Does that somehow make me culpable? I mean, c'mon. How pathetic that this is what they're bringing out today.

____________________

WillPearson:

@Pro-America_Anti-America

Thanks. Haha yeah got up a bit late today.

____________________

UpperLeft:

where is the Ras PA poll on pollster? It's up everywhere else.

____________________

DecaturMark:

re Obama's Aunt:

The Republicans will look at this and say it is one more reason to vote against Obama.

The Democrats will look at this and say it is another deparate attempt to claim that Obama is unfit.

And the Independents and undecided will look at this and say why are we talking about this when the economy and our standing in the world is in the toilet.

____________________

ctj:

I saw a great comment on Politico regarding the Aunt story it read as follows

"By tonight Reuters will be reporting that Obama's cousin owes outstanding library fines"

LOL!

____________________

Steve_OH:

@tom brady:

"There's simply no way that the probabilities that he presents regarding 'win percentages' are as precise as he would like us to believe."

I think you're confusing precision with accuracy. Nate is careful to specify the error bounds on his numbers. Looking specifically at PA, the current projection is Obama +8.5, with a MOE of ±3.6. So the Obama number has a pretty low precision, but "Obama will win PA" has a very high level of confidence, as it would require a vote split well outside the MOE for him to lose.

Furthermore, the listed individual state-by-state win percentages are just mean values. They vary during the 10,000 simulation runs, which is why the overall McCain win probability is as high as it is. If you were to take the state-by-state numbers as fixed values, McCain's win probability would drop to essentially zero.

____________________

radmod:

@Thatcher

Please note I did say the assertion was disproven. This is just another whacko ploy that the right might try.

____________________

cinnamonape:

The whole "auntie" story is really odd.

It was clearly timed to try and swing undecideds at the last moment. She's been in the courts for four years fighting for her asylum status and suddenly in the middle of the night...it's disclosed that her appeal had been denied (which was months ago). And there were apparently hundreds of right wing bloggers and internet insomniacs awaiting the news to push it "Recommended" to the top of Yahoo News. How odd?

1) Up to this point the right-wing was screaming about how Obama DIDN'T help this half-aunt (maybe this was actually an effort to try to get him TO DO SO!?. So it seems clear that Obama wasn't pulling any nepotistic strings with the INS to keep her in the country. Wouldn't this actually be a sign that Obama is actually going to be even-handed and fair to everyone regarding such issues. He isn't going to use his position to allow relatives to violate the law, or to encourage them to stay in the country by giving them financial support.

2) This actually helps Obama with Hispanics and other immigrants as they know how important it is to retain a fair asylum policy for immigration. By the McCainites pushing this it'll signal to them that the Republicans think that people fleeing from persecution in violent war zones where they or their families may face persecution are not welcome in the United States. It may actually cement Obama's support in the SouthWest.

3) Anyone who is really upset about this case and thinks it suggests that Obama supports illegal immigration is already in the tank for McCain...or perhaps are even voting for someone like Alan Keyes. That's been the problem with most of these attack ads...they don't really have any effect but to cement further hard-core support that McCain already has. And when the polls show that they have had no effect...these folks get even more frustrated. They begin to point fingers at anyone but themselves...and probably will throw a tantrum on election day when confronted with hours waiting in lines to vote.

____________________

radmod:

Interesting. So everyone is showing the Obama speech in NV (after showing Palin's speech) but Fox News decides to cut it off and instead show ... a McCain speech! Yeah, there's no conservative bias in Fox News. Riiighhhtttt!!!!

____________________

Pat:

To all Obama supporter;

Don't worry about PA or anything elso. We know we have the RV advantage across the country. All you have to do is get these people to the polls.

JUST GOTV. Make calls from home. It is really easy. Obama website will guide you.

____________________

zoot:

The auntie story is far too late to impact voter preferences 2+ days prior to the general, at a time of economic crisis. It's just more ammo for the delusional Right to claim that we're electing a human monster with foreign allegiances. Stuff like this makes the task of post-election governance that much more difficult, ot that the GOP ever gave a F/F about that, when power was at stake.

Now, where do you think the leak came from?

____________________

piratebay:

To those who say the Bush DUI story didn't do much, Al Gore won the popular vote, and it was a significant uptick from where the polls were showing the race.

I really hope this aunt story is gone by tonight, especially since Mccain won't push it, but I can see undecideds viewing it as a reason to not vote. Many will say "i don't believe he didn't know his aunt was here illegally. how can a president have an illegal relative", etc. Hope this is not the case.

____________________

webim:

GALLUP ??

____________________

cinnamonape:

"I don't think the contributions thing has legs either. She only donated $260, so it's no problem for Obama to return the money or give it to charity."

I'm not sure what her status was while she was awaiting the decision on her political asylum status. Because she was a member of the Odinga family she may actually have had a real claim of risk of political persecution. That may have ended once the conflict in Kenya abated and Odinga became a member of the government.

But if she were a legal resident my understanding is that she could have made a legal donation. It's doubtful that the campaign could have actually ascertained whether she was a legal resident. In fact SHE may not have know whether or not she could donate. The FEC only requires someone with a US residence to "declare" that they can legally make a donation. Unless you want people to have to send in copies of their birth certificates in I don't know how one could actually require legal citizenship. Maybe even that could be faked (according to Republicans). Apparently Republicans aren't even satisfied with a "passport".

____________________

Trosen:

Just had 2 Obama canvassers come to my door. I was delighted to tell them that a) I already voted and b) I'll be canvassing later. =)

____________________

McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

@Trosen

What state you live in?

____________________

Trosen:

New Gallup is out. Another nail for McCain.. =)

____________________

DecaturMark:

Obama 52 across the board in Gallup

____________________

cinnamonape:

"That 80% number still boggles me. Kerry took AAs 84% in PA, does anyone seriously believe he'd win more AAs than Obama?"

I guess the problem is that Obama is about as black as Strom Thurmond's daughter...so there is still some reticence within the AA community. Beside's who would support someone that believes that one should give out Halloween candy to random kids showing up on ones doorstep. That sounds like "Socialism".

____________________

Trosen:

Miami Beach.

____________________

McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

Gallup

12 RV, 10 LV, 10 LV Obama

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Obama gains in the traditional AND expanded version...a 10 pt lead now among likely voters in both models.

Huge, huge numbers for Obama.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Gallup

RV
O 52
M 51

LV1
O 52
M 42

LV2
O 52
M 42

____________________

Thatcher:

Both LV1 and LV2 are 10 point spreads!

____________________

Mister H.:

Wow!

Obama has made gains AGAIN on Gallup. He is now got a 10-point lead in both "Expanded" and "Traditional."

It's a +1 shift for "Expanded" and a +2 for "Traditional"

Isn't that big this late in the election cycle??

____________________

Carter:

Gallup Daily:

Obama +10 in LVI and LVII

____________________

DCDemocrat:

The Gallup Daily Tracker is out, and these are the results:

Registered Voters
Obama 52
McCain 41

The numbers were 50-41 yesterday. This figure is now Obama +11, the same as yesterday.

Likely Expanded Voter Model
Obama 52
McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were 52-43. McCain declines a point, so the expanded model is Obama +10.

Traditional Model
Obama 52
McCain 42

Yesterday's numbers were 51-43, so Obama rises a point while McCain loses one. The traditional model is Obama +10.

Note that the traditional and expanded models have the same numbers and, hence, the same point spread.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I think the real nail in the coffin is for Zogby. His numbers are not even remotely substantiated by anyone else and I dont care what TIPP does either way.

____________________

pc17:

anyone know what the % of AA population in PA in terms of who votes. if it's say 10% and he lost 15% in the lastest rasmussen poll it would constitute a 3% swing. which is what the poll shows. if the AA population is over 10% then it's even more of a swing. hard to believe he only gets 80% of the AA vote.

____________________

mysticlaker:

The statistical tie in Gallup promised for this Sunday is finally here.

____________________

Trosen:

cinnamonape, I have a friend in the campaign that believes Obama has some AA "minions" (or identifying as such) who are sandbagging PA pollsters to keep McCain there, spending all his resources. If I see another poll or 2 showing 20% AA vote to McCain, I might be inclined to believe it.

(Where's KipTin to tell me that AA # is legit?)

____________________

hou04:

GALLUP! OMG!

Honestly, I expected it to tighten a bit today. What a great news!

Let's see what Zogby says tonight, after he sees this.

____________________

McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

@Trosen

You're lucky to live in Miami Beach, I've been there more than twice, my parents live in Miami but I live in NY and I am delighted that Obama lead in my state is around +25 I could not be happier and prouder :-)

BTW I am watching MSNBC and according to them democrats outnumber per by 200,000 votes in Florida

____________________

KMartDad08:

I'd love to see an analysis as to why the traditonal and expanded versions of Gallup have identical results? I wonder if it's based upon the great turnout in early voting.

Morning Joe is always touting the Traditional LV model. Perhaps he'll highlight Zogby's results tomorrow.

____________________

WillPearson:

wow. well that makes me happy.

____________________

BUS:

The Saturday before the election, those Gallup numbers are pretty huge. Any talk about McCain "gaining ground" or being "four points behind" are much less tenable in this light, and poor Zogby is looking startlingly foolish. Moreover, I think the informercial midweek is after having a real effect. In years to come, it could be looked at as the move that sealed the election.

____________________

Kile Thomson:

new Gallup numbers

McCain Surge Continues... !!

____________________

Trosen:

McPalinocchioIsAJoke, Wish I was in NY. I'll swap apartments for a weekend anytime you like!

____________________

pbcrunch:

Wow... great numbers for Obama in Gallup. I wonder if they're scratching their heads over there over the convergence of the extended and traditional models, because I certainly am.

So far today, the trackers are:

Obama gaining: Gallup (both LV models), R2K and Ras.

Obama slipping: Zogby (with his odd "McCain ahead" day)

Obama even: Hotline (+2 to both Obama and McCain; Obama at 51% for first time).

Like Silver at 538 pointed out, half of Zogby's Saturday morning number comes from Thursday, a day where NONE of the other trackers saw major movement to McCain (only Ras had +1 to him), and the other half comes from Friday where there was NO movement to McCain in any other tracker (so far).

____________________

deeproy:

Holy JC on a pogo stick! Gallup has + 10 Obama on the LVT screen! I am flabbergasted.

And the fact that the expanded and likely have merged is quite surprising. I guess they are modeling their LVT with already voted voters.

____________________

fed:

And keep in mind that Ras was positive for Obama today and in Hotline Obama crossed 50% today. Over all GREAT news

____________________

KMartDad08:

I hope Obama launches an investigation into the way Bush administration has used the DOJ and ICE to intimidate voters and influence the election. It is despicable.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@pbcrunch

Dont forget Ras showed slight movement to Obama. Nothing significant but it certainly doesn't signal a good McCain day.

____________________

BUS:

@KMartDad08:

Josh Marshall had a post on that earlier:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/241672.php

____________________

Thatcher:

@KMartDad08:

That could be it ... with the "traditional" universe - you would automatically include those that have stated they have already voted. 27% of those polled by Gallup say they already voted and as of Thursday Obama lead those 55-40 ... so having over 1/4th of a universe have a +15 lead - it would definitely push the final outcome dramatically.

____________________

maddiekat:

I wonder why Axlerod sounded so confident on Countdown last night.

____________________

McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

@Trosen

I got to think about swapping apartments :-)
What time polls will be closed in FL on Nov 4th?

____________________

mysticlaker:

This is really something from gallup:

"The vote choices of these early voters -- all of whom are included in the likely voter pool since they are definite voters -- skew more toward Barack Obama than the sample average. Thus, more and more of these Obama-oriented voters' choices are being "locked in" to the likely voter pool through early voting, benefiting Obama."

The way I read this (and it's not clear so I'd like other opinions), is the Obama is leading nationally greater than +10 so far with those who voted (27% of the sample)

____________________

jonny87:

what can i say about gallup, great numbers.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

All they gotta do is hold out and hope that McCain doesn't overperform greatly on election day to negate the early voting and its done.

____________________

NeutralNick:

Obama is still Galluping toward a landslide.

____________________

BUS:

Two ten-point leads from the most well-known pollster in the country - surely this should be factored in to the MSM's weekend coverage? Will we see it emlazoned on The Page? On Drudge? Those sort of numbers - especially tallied with the early vote advantage - are surely news in themselves.

____________________

jonny87:

@mysticlaker

'The way I read this (and it's not clear so I'd like other opinions), is the Obama is leading nationally greater than +10 so far with those who voted (27% of the sample)'

thats how i read it.

____________________

asquared:

Wow...Gallup...guess everyone can put the Xanax away for the day.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Early voting in NC with 66% of 2004 total voters already casting ballots


2008 2004
Party
Dem 51.8% 48.6%
Rep 30.0% 37.4%
None 18.2% 14.1%

____________________

joethedummer:

mcsame always gains a point or 2 over the weekend for whatever reason, come monday obama should have a solid 6.5 lead across the board!

____________________

jeric:

According to the Obama campaign, a large number of the people voting early are sporadic or first-time voters, who normally would get screened from the Traditional Likely Voter model. As they add these early voters to the Traditional model, it's going to look more and more like the Expanded model because the Expanded model was right all along.

Source: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/10/31/175639/86

____________________

mysticlaker:

Thanks Jonny...That is an amazing piece of data.

____________________

deeproy:

I still don't get it...

"The vote choices of these early voters -- all of whom are included in the likely voter pool since they are definite voters -- skew more toward Barack Obama than the sample average."

... but which likely voter pool are these going into? Are they automatically dumped into LVT, or are they mixed into LVT and LVE depending on their relative criteria.

Either way, I would love to see how it breaks down.

____________________

hou04:

News on PENNSYLVANIA from Tom Jensen of PPP:

"Chill Out -

We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.

And I know some will say, 'yeah but you screwed up the primary there.' But the mistake we made was not anything specific to Pennsylvania, we fixed it by the next set of primaries and we were number one on the Survey USA report cards for every primary we polled after it- Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon."

____________________

Ryguy:

the gallup snap shot is nothing new... we see this just about every week. mccain makes a little bit of headway and then by the end of the week we are back where we left off... obama with a big lead.

i remember posters here earlier in the week claiming that mccain would be tied or even up on average by the weekend... well the weekend is here and the race is no tighter, its ballooned in obamas direction yet again.

so here ya go republicans. youve got 3 days for a massive upset, the greatest in the history of the election process in this country. good luck.

____________________

BUS:

@mysticlaker

That's how I read it too, although speculation surrounds just how much his advantage is going into Tuesday. Some polls have put it as large as 60-40. With these sort of polls, that number sounds plausible, and it should be remembered that a 60/40 split is exactly the advantage Bush maintained over Kerry in early voting the last time round.

____________________

Trosen:

BUS, good link. Basically, Gallup can't assume all these "traditional" demographics won't show up when they've already voted.

____________________

joethedummer:

why is arizona not a toss up on here? every poll has it a 2 to 4 point race over there...

____________________

political_junki:

NV is already in the bag :)
----------------------------------------------

Questions ahead of Election Day

By Jon Ralston

Fri, Oct 31, 2008 (2:01 a.m.)

Political campaigns are about many things, beautiful and ugly.

They are decided by soaring rhetoric and sleazy innuendo, substantive ideas and phony promises, grass-roots connections and financial advantages. But, mostly, they are decided by cold, harsh numbers.

And right now, Nevada Republicans have to be petrified by the voting counts in early and mail balloting. They have to be thinking: How big will the wave be and how many of our candidates will it wash away?

The figures are nothing short of astonishing as early voting comes to an end today. By the time the last voting machine is wheeled away and put into storage until Tuesday, more than 400,000 voters in Clark County will have cast ballots at polling places or by mail before more thoughtful, patient voters do their duty next week. That is about half the active voters in Southern Nevada, where close to 70 percent of the total state vote will come from when all is said and done.

Through Wednesday, Democrats enjoyed a nearly 20 percentage point lead in number of voters in Southern Nevada. And even more ominous for the Republicans: They were losing by a nearly 10 percentage point margin in previously GOP-held Washoe County. With those kinds of numbers, it would seem that even their Democrat-averse friends in the 15 counties in the state’s midsection can’t save the Republicans.

But could the numbers be lying? Questions to consider when mulling whether the election is over:

• How much of the turnout is reflective of partisan voting and how many are crossing over? National polls have shown 80 percent to 90 percent of Democrats and Republicans voting for their man in the presidential race, with independents generally favoring Barack Obama. But even if John McCain can split independents or do well with them, Obama is likely to have a double-digit lead in Clark County after early voting.

John Kerry only won Clark by 5 percentage points. Obama could double that, which would preclude McCain from winning Nevada if it holds up on Tuesday. Those numbers don’t lie.

• What kind of down-ballot drop-off will there be? I don’t necessarily believe any of the exit-polling of early voters floating around, but I do believe this: State Sen. Dina Titus is almost surely leading Rep. Jon Porter among those who have cast ballots and Jill Derby may well be leading in her run against Rep. Dean Heller.

Democrats will have a double-digit lead in early voting turnout in Porter’s district and will do well in Heller’s, too, so if they can run as strongly (or close) as Obama will with the faithful, Titus and Derby will be looking good by the end of the day. If they don’t, and if they are bleeding independent voters or losing their own to Republicans, Democrats will be in trouble. Derby would be 0-for-2 in that district, and Titus would be doing some serious praying Tuesday to hold on.

The same is true for GOP state Sens. Joe Heck and Bob Beers, who slowly have closed the turnout gap in their districts but may still be behind their challengers after those early/mail numbers are posted between 7 and 8 p.m. (we hope) on Election Night. The question is by how much.

• Can Republicans win the Election Day vote by enough to save their candidates? If McCain is not blown out by the early/mail vote — that is, if he is only down by 5 percentage points or less — he still has a chance here, which is why he and Sarah Palin are coming to the state Monday. Election Day for the GOP this year has never been more important as the party tries to head off a depopulation of their elected forces. Even they must know the odds are against them — the Obama machine, the state’s demographics, the Obama incursions into rural Nevada. They need a substantial turnout advantage on Tuesday to save their people.

Many Republicans here have adapted a strategy similar to what Nevada’s own John Ensign essentially has done as head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — assume Obama wins and try to navigate around that in the final days. Some GOP consultants have even gone so far as to tie their candidates to Obama in lower-ballot races to try to piggyback onto the massive Democratic turnout. If they can get their candidates even 20 percent of the Democratic vote this time, it might make the difference.

Democrats know that some of their lesser contenders (must I name names?) will need to grab Obama’s coattails to win, perhaps all the way down the ticket. We will know Tuesday whether he has any.

The numbers will not lie.

____________________

political_junki:

hou04:

"News on PENNSYLVANIA from Tom Jensen of PPP:..."

Thank you. That is really great news. My only worry in this election is a last minute upset in PA. It is really good reassurance :)

____________________

Dana Adini:

Decatur you forgot the most important demographic in early voting 56.8% women voters

____________________

BUS:

Link for that Jensen post?

____________________

mysticlaker:

@bus...

The early voting numbers are very different than 2004. There is much more early voting in many more states.

We are heading towards 30+% this year. In wss 22% in 2004.

____________________

BUS:

Florida looking pretty too:

"In Florida, where nearly 3.9 million votes had already been counted as of yesterday, 285,443 more Democrats than Republicans have either voted early or cast absentee ballots."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1108/Dems_have_early_vote_advantage_in_FL_and_NV.html?showall

____________________

political_junki:
____________________

jonny87:

from politico

'In Florida, where nearly 3.9 million votes had already been counted as of yesterday, 285,443 more Democrats than Republicans have either voted early or cast absentee ballots'

likely to rise to 350,000 democratic advantage when early voting finishes up. mccain cant be feeling great about that.

____________________

Mister H.:

The statistical tie in Gallup promised for this Sunday is finally here.


L......O.......L

I really do wonder what Boomshak is thinking...assuming that he hasn't already created another account here...

____________________

Thatcher:

@deeproy

the early voters are included in BOTH LV models - because since they have already voted - they are likely to vote.

____________________

jonny87:

@BUS

beat me to it!

____________________

jrcclark:

Combine this poll with the most recent Gallup, Pew, ABC, and CBS and this supposed tightening of the polls is a bunch of BS. I think I better start wearing my cowboy boots. Look for a win, amybe even a 400 plus EV for BO. All of these close states will go blue with a lead of 8- 11%. Check out today's Gallup Poll. Check out Pew Research, which I am starting to believe - even when it says 15%. BUT GO VOTE!!!

____________________

zen:

@Whoever might concern about auntie's story,

There are 3 groups of voters
1st group is commited voters: whatever happens, they will not change their minds.
So this group will not be affected by this story any way.

2nd group is uncommited voters: is this story strong enough to change their decision?
Just imagine you are leaning towards Maccain, and you heard this story, maybe you can be a bit dissapointed, but i don't think this story will make you vote for Obama. Because Obama is too different from Maccain. YOu need stronger case to change your decision.

3rd group is purely undecided... Maybe some of them can be turned off by this story. But not all of them.

So the bottom line is undecideds can be affected by this story, but soft voters will not be affected by this story.

And fortunately Obama doesn't need undecides for his victory. He just need to secure soft supporters until the election day...

One bad news is that he might not get landslide victory.

____________________

SoloBJ:

@political_junki,

I'm worried about an upset in Pennsylvania too. Here is what Chuck Todd has to say about PA:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27478547/page/4/

____________________

DecaturMark:

GA early voting 60% of 2004 voter total have already cast a ballot

Of votes cast this year

AA 35.08% *
W 60.20%

GA does not register according to political party

*This is a huge number for Obama

____________________

sunnymi:

@SoloBJ and all others who are worried about PA check this and Chill Out :-)

____________________

Publius:

We need to move to Saturday-Sunday voting. That way religious people can have their Sabbath and more people can vote. Why we cling to this 1840s model of voting is beyond me.

____________________

truthcomb:

PEW called this election about two weeks ago. They, plus CBS & ABC, have now been vindicated. Let us take a break from polls and GOTV.

Good Luck to y'all!!

____________________

Thatcher:

IBD/TIPP is out ...

Obama +4.5 (which is .1 better than yesterday) ... but because of rounding - its 48 - 43 (a 5 pointer ... 1 better than yesterday when RCP posts it).

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN

____________________

Frenchie_75:


zogby is simply an opportunist...he got name recognition last WE on meet the press and he is playing to the emotions of the GOP...i am sure he is banking the money right now for his polls...

____________________

SoloBJ:

@sunnymi,

How reliable/accurate has PPP been in the past?

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

Chucky Todd, the voice of reason:

"Ah, the Keystone state. Is it in play or not? The McCain folks have no choice but to believe that it is. They are hoping that party I.D. snaps back and that some sort of race component kicks in to salvage McCain. I don't know. If George W. Bush couldn't carry the state, why should we believe McCain can? Ironically, Republicans have a shot at winning two House seats thanks to incumbent Democratic gaffes; Both Jack Murtha and Paul Kanjorski are on the brink. Could Pennsylvania be the only state in the union where Republicans net more House seats than Democrats?"

____________________

jonny87:

where are the FL and OH numbers?????

100 polls monday?

____________________

Thatcher:

@Publius:

I think we are moving to the correct direction. Instead of a one-day bake sale kind of election - a week or 2 week long opportunity to vote early. That way you aren't dealing with religion, work, etc. However, they do need to have more friendly hours. But at the same time - states also need to adopt no-reason absentee voting.

____________________

BUS:

Marc Ambinder has the most level-headed take on this auntie story:

"Barack Obama's long-lost aunt, who is living in poverty, might be deported for being in the country illegally...and this is supposed to make people not want to vote for Barack Obama?

Republicans think anti-immigrant forces are going to be rallied by attacking a middle aged woman in her fifties? This is what's going to swing independents back to McCain? Reminding people (a) of an actual human face on the receiving end of anti-immigration policies and (b) that the Democratic candidate is personally affected by a complicated issue facing many American families?

And assuming voters _are_ motivated by the connection, they're going to turn to McCain as their anti-immigrant savior?"

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/11/the_politics_of_auntie_zeituni.php

____________________

BUS:

For what its worth, Ambinder also reports that the Obama camp's internals are "stable".

____________________

deeproy:

@Thatcher

But wouldn't LVT screen discount voters that have already voted? As they have a history of voting and are most likely going to vote, then wouldn't early voting be factored out? I would think the numbers wouldn't move unless we're seeing soft McCain LVT voters or independents moving to Obama. If this is the case, is it because these voters are locking in by early voting?

Anyway, I find the lack of a breakdown to be a little bit confusing. Believe me, I'm happy about the lead, but it leaves me scratching my head.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

So basically Zogby found numbers no one else did. I cannot even imagine what he is thinking or gonna do tonight.

____________________

sunnymi:

@SoloBJ:"@sunnymi,How reliable/accurate has PPP been in the past?"

They were pretty good in the primaries especially in the latter half with IN, NC and OR....they provide all their internals and you can see they are not doing any weird like some pollsters are.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@BUS:

Ambinder makes a good point. If McCain is hoping to win any Hispanic votes, he would be smart to play this down. It hits too close to home to many hispanics.

____________________

orange24:

CNN reported a press release from the McCain camp that they were "not going to make this an issue" (Barack Obamas Aunt). Of course, this won't stop FoxNews from leading every hour with it, but they're the only one. All MSM outlets were reporting it this morning. As it became apparent that it was a non-issue, they have all pretty much dropped it (except Fox, of course). You should also read the letter from Rep Conyers to the DOJ regarding the inappropriate release of that information. Either the Bush Admin or the McCain camp had a hand in this. My personal feeling is that it's someone on the Bush team, considering he doesn't have anything to lose. His approval numbers are at 22% - how much lower can they go?

____________________

thoughtful:

I actually think the Aunt story is a greater help to Obama than McCain. Most people don't care about this, they care about the economy. How is this going to play with Hispanics in Arizona? Texas? Florida?

Gosh scrape the barrel how low will the Repubs go.

I wouldn't worry about PA or OH either, McCain/Palin you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig. I can't see moderate independents doing anything other than following moderate Republicans and voting Obama.

I have serious concern for McCain's sanity.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@DecaturMark

The last thing McCain wants to bring up is Immigration. Hispanics feel he abandoned them and Repubs are still angry at him for supporting the Hispanics.

____________________

Thatcher:

@SoloBJ:

Do NOT be worried about PA ... EVERYONE who is not a partisan Hack is calling this a win for Obama. Even your own post with link to Chuck Todd shows that "If George W. Bush couldn't carry the state, why should we believe McCain can?"

And if you are TRULY concerned ... why are you on this site commenting about your worry - when you could be making calls into PA as a volunteer for Obama.

steps onto soap box
STOP PANICKING DEMOCRATS! If you are TRULY concerned about a certain state - get the heck off this site and GO VOLUNTEER! My gosh, Gore, Kerry and heck, even Bill Clinton (1992) is envious of the position Obama is in right now. NONE OF THEM were in the commanding lead Obama is. NONE OF THEM.

But if you are worried - again - get the heck off the computer and go VOLUNTEER NOW!

I've put in an average of 100+ hours a week for the past 2 months creating mailing data for several direct mail consulting firms for democratic candidates around the entire country and every major labor union.

Here are just a few of the targeted races I've done mail/phone data for:

NC
Hagan
Perdue

PA
Murtha
Kanjorski

FL/VA
Obama
Mahoney

NM
Udall
Teague

Plus many other federal and state level offices.

And unions:
AFLCIO
AFSCME
IAFF
NEA
PP

Trust me when I say - Democrats can't rest on their laurels ... but Democrats have no reason to believe the sky is falling. If you do have worries - Don't come here to fret - go to the nearest campaign HQ and GOTV.

steps off soap box

____________________

Cho:

I think zogby is gonna rebound tonight, so probably no change in the 3day-numbers and a single-day-polling of about O+8. He cant afford to be that much out of line come election day.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@Pro-America_Anti-America:

"The last thing McCain wants to bring up is Immigration."

I agree that is why McCain will distance himself from this non-story. I think it is funny that the right think that this is a weapon against Obama.

____________________

Thatcher:

For those still confused:

In the Gallup polls -

1) If you haven't voted yet, and you fit into their demographic for one of the two (or both) of their LV samples - that is where you end up

2) If you haven't voted yet and you DON'T fit into their demo for either LV samples - you only stay in the RV sample

2) If you have voted early - you end up in BOTH LV samples because a "likely voter" sample is guessing that you will vote ... if you have ALREADY voted - then you automatically get put into BOTH LV samples

Straight forward ...

____________________

thoughtful:

@cho

the interesting pollster is Scotty. +7 points tomorrow and back to 8 on Monday -he might have to concede 9!

____________________

timontheleft:

@DecaturMark

"GA early voting 60% of 2004 voter total have already cast a ballot"

Where'd you get that number? That's unbelievable! Just my humble opinion, but that's got to be great news for O.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@timontheleft:

I went to the GA SOS and did the math based on early voting #s and 2004 totals. And yes, it is good news as I believe that the AA vote % in 2004 was about 26%. I have not been able to find a reliable source for that #.

____________________

Pazienza:

Clearly, Obama is practicing what he is preaching. Sharing the wealth is a keystone of his campaign. He has an aunt living in a Boston slum and cares so little about her he claims he doesn't even know that she is in the country illegaly. Once he's elected he will increase taxes and redistribute wealth so the government can take care of his aunt. God forbid Obama should help her out - let the government do it. The compassionate Obama who is going to change the country doesn't even take care of his own family.

____________________

Observer:

So according to Gallop if you expand 10% you get 10%. It seems that pollsters don't only use different math to everybody else they use different language as well.

My conclusion is that Gallop have simply decided to go with the expanded model. They might be right, they might not. We shall soon know.

____________________

DTM:

@deeproy

Presumably both of Gallup's likely voter models automatically include people who report actually voting, regardless of prior history, enthusiasm, or so on.

So, presumably starting out there were some people who reported being enthusiastic about voting but who didn't have a history of voting and thus were included in the expanded model but excluded from the traditional model. But apparently a lot of these people have actually voted in early voting. That would make for no change in the expanded model since they were already included, but now they are being included in the traditional model as well.

So, in short, early voting could make the expanded and traditional models resemble each other more and more, provided that the people in the expanded model that the traditional model had originally excluded were actually voting early and thus gradually being included in the traditional model as well.

That said, I think something else may be going on, namely that it is not just that Obama's new voters are actually showing up in early voting, but also that McCain supporters who are relatively unenthusiastic but who have voted in the past are not showing up in early voting. That always seemed to me to be a somewhat overlooked aspect of the "expanded" model--it both included more new voters AND also excluded some former voters for lack of enthusiasm.

So, to summarize, I think the convergence actually represents both high turnout among Obama's supporters and low turnout among McCain's supporters. Now, this could change of course on Election Day itself. But if it doesn't, Gallup's current numbers may not only be accurate, they may actually still be understating just how wide the final margin could become.

____________________

Observer:

McCain is doing the right thing by not going for the aunt story. This is just like when Obama did the right thing and said families are off limits.

____________________

Publius:

Thatcher:

Two weeks of extended voting that ends on a particular date would be fine with me. I live in NJ and plan to be at my polling place at 5:55am for the 6am opening. I expect a few states to expand their hours on Tuesday.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@DTM:

"Presumably both of Gallup's likely voter models automatically include people who report actually voting, regardless of prior history, enthusiasm, or so on."

I think you are correct. As the T model and the E model grow closer to the E model, McCain has more to worry about. I think it is a reflection of this race not necessarily of the voters in general. I think Gallup's modeling shows that every election has its own quirks. It is interesting to see that change take place in the daily tracking of LV1 and LV2.

____________________

Publius:

I just received this e-mail from the Obama campaign.

Drive for Change -- Pennsylvania

One of the most powerful ways to make a difference is to talk to swing voters face-to-face or help out at the polls in a battleground state. If you can grab a couple of friends and head out of town for a day or two, Pennsylvania Campaign for Change staff will be there to greet you and provide everything you need to succeed. No experience is necessary.

Sign up today -- there's a volunteer shift in Pennsylvania with your name on it.

Call from Home

We need to make hundreds of thousands of calls to voters in battleground states today through Election Day. Right from your own home, on your own schedule, you can call voters in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state that is the McCain campaign's best path to victory. We'll give you the phone numbers and the talking points. It couldn't be easier.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Publius:

"I just received this e-mail from the Obama campaign."


Is there a Link?

____________________

Publius:

It came from here:

Jon Carson, BarackObama.com"

Here's one of the links.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/PABorder

____________________

Thatcher:

***ENDORSEMENT SHOCKER***

Cheney Endorses McCain
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/dick-cheney-endorses-mcca_n_139990.html

aww ... pack it up folks, Obama's lost ;)

____________________

deeproy:

@DTM

If it is true that voters that wouldn't normally show up on the LVT screen are now on because they voted early would seem invalidate the trending of that LVT, since voters that would not normally be picked up by LVT are picked up only because they voted early and not because of their voting history or party weight.

Something else is going on here.

____________________

Thatcher:

@deeproy:

are you THAT dense? really?

ALL likely voter models ALWAYS include those that have stated they have already voted. It's just that the part of the model that includes early voters start at ZERO in the modeling when no one has early voted yet and increases as part of that model as more vote early.

____________________

deeproy:

Nice one jackass. Maybe we can have comments turned off until after the election.

I'm not complaining about the LVE, just wondering if there is more to the LVT shift than meets they eye.

____________________

Thatcher:

@deeproy

Well, I don't know how many times several of us can explain it in several different examples. perhaps we our responses aren't satisfying you - but seems CW is all pointing the same way.

Obviously we aren't giving you what you want - email the folks at Gallup and ask. Because we've attempted and its not getting through.

____________________

DTM:

@deeproy

I am fairly certain the traditional model automatically includes actual voters, and personally I don't see that as contradicting Gallup's description of how the model operates. What Gallup generally says about the traditional model is that unlike the expanded model, the traditional model "take[s] into account . . . reports of past voting history and knowledge of voting procedures." But I've never seen them suggest that if a person reports actually having voted, their past voting history could trump that claim.

But I agree on two points. First, if people thought the traditional model was always tracking the exact same group of people, this is a good example of how that is a faulty assumption. What is being kept constant is the methodology for classifying people as likely voters, but it is possible the group of people the model would include is actually changing over time as things change in the real world, such as people actually voting.

Second, this may not be the only explanation of the convergence. In particular, as I suggested elsewhere, I think it is also possible that a few relatively unenthusiastic McCain likely voters in the traditional model have been either converting to Obama voters or becoming even less enthusiastic and dropping out of the model entirely. Note the second part of this supplementary explanation is another example of how the methodology could remain the same but the group that would be included in the model could change as things in the real world changed (in this case, lowered enthusiasm levels among certain people).

____________________

deeproy:

@DMT

I tend to agree. I think this poll represents a loss of moral in the McCain camp, as well as some switching of support from McCain to Obama. I also think there may be something wacky with Halloween's numbers, as seen in the Drudge Zogby one day. (Not that I trust Zogby all that much, as I've been bitten by their numbers in the past.)

I really think there is more to this number than just early voters voting.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR