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US: Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen 9/30-10/02)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
09/30-10/02,08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 51, McCain 44

 

Comments
Flashlight:

51%

aka "winning."


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jonny87:

can anyone work out the daily results for tues, wed, thurs?

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mago:

Yeah, Obama is down 1 in Minnesota but up 7 nationally (or 6 or 11 in the other trackers). There is no way McCain will significantly outperform his national average in MN.

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Trosen:

Don't sweat that last MN poll. Not only is it within the MOE, but it hardly moves the trend at all.

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thoughtful:

Saw Rasmussen a few minutes ago on Fox.

He says this is all down to the economy, no movement from last Friday's debate.

Scotty says that over the next 4 weeks McCain has to hold on to all his leaners and win half of Obama's leaners to turn it around. "that's a big ASK!"

Ras seemed to imply there were an equal amount of leaners on each side. No there is more iffy McCain ones.

He didn't ge into the ground game either.

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kerrchdavis:

landslide baby landslide

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Trosen:

Ok McCain people.. get ready for your party this weekend. (maybe the last good times and optimism in this race. 2 things will help bring these polls close over the weekend. 1) Palin may not have swayed a whole lot of undecided voters last night, but she re-energized the base last night by not looking like a sedated moose in headlights. Also, there are still a lot of women out there who WANT a reason to get back on the Plain bandwagon. last night didn't bring them all back on, but it got some, I guarantee you. Second, I believe the House will pass the rescue/bailout/whatever deal today. This will help McCain a little too. Sentiment has changed dramatically in the past few days/weeks as more and more prognosticators have predicted economic doom/Armageddon/chaos if SOMETHING doesn't pass Congress ASAP. So while there is still passionate sentiment against this bill any any form, I think a slight majority of Americans have come to see it as a necessary evil. McCain has positioned himself as the guy to step in and "make it happen" (and will continue to take that stance after it passes). Whether that has any basis in reality is irrelevant, as enough parroting of talking points always resonates with some people. So I also predict that will help nudge McCain a point or 2 up this weekend. Therefor I do predict some much tighter polls this weekend, and then another separation after Tuesdays debate, and as other really, really bad economic news continues to filter through (jobless claims, housing problems getting worse, etc).

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burrito:

@Trosen :

You surely sound a lot like boomshak ... is it possible that you are a boomshak "double" ? or his "twin" ?

LOL !!

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Trosen:

Yea.. me and boom. BFF. but seriously.. don't be surprised or alarmed when this weekend's #s get tight, and the McCain folks work themselves into a lather. That's why I'm telling them to enjoy the next few days.

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burrito:

About last night's debate ... I watched the debate 3 times ... I tried to understand what exactly was Palin saying and I came to the conclusion that in several questions she did not answer the question ... mainly, she did not say anything ... she reminded me of those people at school that did not know the subject and what they did is talk a lot but not say anything ...

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Trosen:

Yea.. but as we all know it's style over substance. For instance.. in last week's debate, Obama may have won by a little but he didn't blow McCain away like the polls showed. It was McCain's grumpy, dismissive, condescending tone that turned people off. Therefore, Palin's "style" from last night's debate will help them a little bit.

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ronnie:

Trosen, I don't see McCain's position in the polls getting better....Heck, they may have gotten worse...While Palin did her part to help her own favorable ratings, Biden did his part to effectively lower McCain's....That's a win for Biden.

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H2OPlus:

Trosen's right. There will likely be a tightening of the polls by about two points. It won't sustain itself. As I said right after the Republican convention, we were experiencing McCain's high tide. Nothing has happened to change that.

As for Palin, she held her own. She didn't embarrass herself, but she also didn't do anything that showed she could run the country.

Until recently, she and McCain have been afraid to face the press. If they are afraid of the press, they can't have the courage to face terrorists.

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jonny87:

new gallup 49-42

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ronnie:

Looking at the insta polls (which some call Biden the decisive winner) I don't see how that adds up to a 1-2 point boost for McCain.....I don't see it....We saw similiar debate poll numbers for Obama's performance last week and those numbers were confirmed by more Obama gains nationally...While Palin held her own she didn't convince enough she was ready to step into the presidency if needed and that's the reason for the debate numbers calling it a Biden win...McCain had another rough day and Palin pretty much saved it from being a total meltdown.

Btw, polls do actually show more of those uncommitted voters going for Obama than McCain.

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boomshak:

CNN REFUSES TO RELEASE THE INTERNALS OF THEIR POST-DEBATE POLL:

Last week, CNN did a post-debate poll giving Democrats a 14 point sampling advantage, for which they caught significant grief.

The solution? Fix the sample? Nope. Hide the sample? Yes.

CNN knows no shame.

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burrito:

Hmmm ... Today's gallup poll :

Obama 49
McCain 42

That is Obama up 1 point from yesterday and makes it a margin of 7 points ... I guess this goes against boomshak's theory of the polls tightening towards the weekend ... LOL !!

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burrito:

@Trosen :

I hope that you did not take offense about my "boomshak comment" ... although I slightly disagree with you, as I see the trend going up for Obama (i.e. gallup up 1 point today) ... I think that during the weekend we may see the polls go up (or down for that fact) a couple of points, but it see it as fluctuation ... I think that this is not an indication that the race is tightening ...

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Trosen:

No offense taken. I'm not offended easily. I have these same back and forths with my own Dad and friends. (Yes, libeerals and conservatives can be friends and family in the real world). But no polls you are seeing today will reflect any possible movement from the debate or the rescue bill. I still predict some tightening prior to Tuesday's debate.

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Scott W:

BOOM! or should I say "PUFF" - powderpuff... that was the last gasp of the GOP as it goes under. Maveric McCain has already disavow3ed the GOP, and has no pull with the Repug house members. Palin is the desparate "American Idol" face of a crumbling party... and that also has failed. There is nothing holding the "GOP" together now... no leaders, only posers. Bush has succeeded in drowning the GOP (Gurgling Old Party" once and for all. I am sure it will rise again... but hopefully it will be a Bobby Jindal, not a Sarah Palin as its new face.

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Scott W:

BOOM! or should I say "PUFF" - powderpuff... that was the last gasp of the GOP as it goes under. Maveric McCain has already disavow3ed the GOP, and has no pull with the Repug house members. Palin is the desparate "American Idol" face of a crumbling party... and that also has failed. There is nothing holding the "GOP" together now... no leaders, only posers. Bush has succeeded in drowning the GOP (Gurgling Old Party) once and for all. I am sure it will rise again... but hopefully it will be a Bobby Jindal, not a Sarah Palin as its new face.

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boomshak:

MCCAIN PICKS UP 3 POINTS ON RASMUSSEN!

But wait you say, Rasmussen today has McCain only +6 and he was +7 yesterday, that's only 1 point!

Yes, but to get to +6 after being +7 for two days, Obama had to poll only +4 yesterday. Thats a 3 point gain!

I predicted a 2 point gain on Rasmussen yesteday and we got 3!

Here we go, the Palin Effect is in motion!

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