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US: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Daily Kos 10/28-30)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/28-30,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 45

 

Comments
SoloBJ:

Uptick of +1 for Obama. I hope he can maintain his lead going into Tuesday as he always seems to dip in the polls coming off of the weekend.

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tar_heel:

daily sample yesterday was O+8. FWIW, it's good news.

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southern angler:

Well here you go.....so much for a messiah

Barack Obama's senior advisers have drawn up plans to lower expectations for his presidency if he wins next week's election, amid concerns that many of his euphoric supporters are harboring unrealistic hopes of what he can achieve.

The sudden financial crisis and the prospect of a deep and painful recession have increased the urgency inside the Obama team to bring people down to earth, after a campaign in which his soaring rhetoric and promises of "hope" and "change" are now confronted with the reality of a stricken economy.

One senior adviser told The Times that the first few weeks of the transition, immediately after the election, were critical, "so there's not a vast mood swing from exhilaration and euphoria to despair."

The aide said that Obama himself was the first to realize that expectations risked being inflated.

In an interview with a Colorado radio station, Obama appeared to be engaged already in expectation lowering. Asked about his goals for the first hundred days, he said he would need more time to tackle such big and costly issues as health care reform, global warming and Iraq.

"The first hundred days is going to be important, but it's probably going to be the first thousand days that makes the difference," he said. He has also been reminding crowds in recent days how "hard" it will be to achieve his goals, and that it will take time.

"I won't stand here and pretend that any of this will be easy -- especially now," Obama told a rally in Sarasota, Florida, yesterday, citing "the cost of this economic crisis, and the cost of the war in Iraq." Obama's transition team is headed by John Podesta, a Washington veteran and a former chief-of-staff to Bill Clinton. He has spent months overseeing a virtual Democratic government-in-exile to plan a smooth transition should Obama emerge victorious next week.

The plans are so far advanced that an Obama Cabinet has been largely decided upon, with the expectation that most of his senior appointments could be announced shortly after election day.

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jlm9:

Race tightens as networks see their viewers slipping away!!

Seriously though nationally the polls may be tightening but every state poll in battleground states show Obama holding or gaining ground. Remember in the Primaries where Obama does substantially better in states he visits, it would appear that that is happening again.

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johncoz:

@SoloBJ

Not actually true. Weekend of 10/18-19 was (relatively) bad for Obama in the polls but picked up from Monday on.

What actually counts is what the real level of support for Obama. Anything with a 5 in front of it is okay by me. And all evidence points to the fact that this is the underlying reality behind the ebb and flow of polling noise.

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Dewey1858:

@tar_heel:
daily sample yesterday was O+8. FWIW, it's good news.

If I'm not mistaken, Zogby said Obama had a strong night of polling Monday, which would have been the night that dropped off of his poll this morning, which would seem to indicate Obama has held up well since then, correct?


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johncoz:

@jlm9
"Seriously though nationally the polls may be tightening ..."

Can we kill this meme now, please. There is absolutely no evidence that the national polling situation has changed materially in the past three weeks. Rassmussen has had Obama at 50-52% for 35 straight days!

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Bonzi77:

@SoloBJ

Obama's poll numbers dip coming off the weekends because his supporters are generally harder to get in touch with on the weekends than they are during the week. His level of support isn't actually any lower on those days, just the polls. It's not like anybody is deciding "Well, it's Monday, time to switch to McCain" and then changes their mind again when Wednesday rolls around.

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bmrKY:

hey southern angler

Tell your good friend Joe (aka Sam) the (fake) Plumber I said hi, and that I wish him all the best with his new country music singing career. Maybe Sam and Billy Ray could form a duo to rival Brooks & Dunn and they could even call themselves "Mullets & Skins" and write songs about how health care and social security are evil. Sounds like a winning combination to me.

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southern angler:

bmrKY
Please tell all Obama supporters to forget about their wellfare checks and free health care.

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SoloBJ:

@Dewey1858,
That seems to be correct as I recall Zogby saying the same thing about Obama having a strong polling night on Monday.

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Paul:

Change last seven days in DailyKos attributable to McCain base numbers increasing from 87 to 92. Zogby shows his base numbers did not change at all ... maintained flat at 83.

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superknower:

I'm curious to see the polls covering yesterday and today. I wonder if the infomercial had any effect.

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jonny87:

ras predictions?

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bmrKY:

southern angler

I would, but I don't have the time to go out and talk to 52%+ of the country right now. You and Joe (Sam) The (fake) Plumber (author/country music superstar) seem to be doing fine as it is discussing the evils of social security, welfare and health care, so I'll just leave that up to you guys to inform this misguided 52%+

Only 4 more days of waiting!
YES WE WILL!

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pbcrunch:

You know, I feel that whenever McCain has a surge in momentum, he has no idea what to do with it and ends up stepping all over it himself.

We saw this after the Republican Convention. Whether McCain could have ridden that wave until the election even using the best political skill is debatable, of course, but it didn't help that his campaign he made a ton of tactical errors which are too numerous to itemize.

Again, before the third debate, McCain seemed to be finding a coherent attack against Obama, as well as a coherent reason to vote for him. But he then decided to go 100% negative and because the angry old coot from down the street during the debate.

And earlier this week, McCain definitely seemed to have momentum but his obsession with Khalidi looks to have gotten the best of him.

Just my $.02.

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NextAmericanChapter:

New AP-Yahoo National Poll

sample size~1,040

Obama: 51
McCain: 43

Unfortunately, rather than focusing on Obama's eight point lead, the AP in their write-up focuses on how many people are still undecided or persuadable. Scarborough on Morning Joe has spent all morning harping about these undecideds without once mentioning the actual poll results that have Obama over 50 points.

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mago:

A bunch of new polls linked on www.politicalwire.com
this morning, rather true to the lean of the pollsters: PPP reports good news for Obama, with double-digit leads in CO (+10) and NM (+17, no kidding) and Strategic Vision reporting what I guess kinda passes for good news for McCain (O +5 in PA, O +9 in NH).

One interesting note on the PPP polls: early voting has been so heavy and so Obama-friendly that the Dem only needs about 30% of remaining votes. IOW McCain could crush Obama 2:1 on Election Day and still lose...sweet.

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Dan:

I think Joe "the plumber" admitted that his mom was on welfare, and that he was too for a period of time.

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11Bravo:

certainly, the picture is grim. That does not mean that there is no hope. We have to stay focused on and maintain a solution oriented attitude as we move forward, once Obama is elected.

Whether welfare is evil or the plumber is a plant, doesn't matter. What matters are: Historical data and plan for the future.

When I researched the data I found that Republicans have owned the Administration, except for the Clinton years, since Reagan (1980). During the last 28 years, ONLY Clinton created more jobs and a surplus. As we are all painfully aware, the current Bush has DOUBLED the national debt. 8 years to create as much debt as the nation had piled up in over 200 years.

That said, I think I have had it with the Republican brand for now. I have other reasons, as well, but regarding the economy; if we don't fix that, we can't fix anything else.

The prominent underlying difference between these two parties is the way they spend the national wealth, that is; the tax money the govt collects. Republicans claim that giving it to the rich guys and corporations will allow those 'smart' guys to create jobs and new business... sounds good on paper but in practical application it does not function because people are
greedy. That is the trickle down theory, the single theory that has crippled the nation and the world.

Democrats, on the other hand, like to "percolate up", giving the money to the little guys, knowing they will spend it, because people are, in general, hedonistic and always want 'stuff'. This maintains the economic cycle, necessary for large populations, keeps the economy expanding.

Happy Halloween.

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MDB1974:

Strategic Vision has obama by 5 in PA. I guess they are a republican pollster. Any word on their track record.

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Angus Mc:

Strategic Vision tends to favor Republicans by about 3-4 points.

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Viperlord:

Their record isn't too bad from what I've seen, but their polling of late seems wacky. That said, even if their accurate, Obama still wins PA. Furthermore, Obama still wins without PA.

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1magine:

Southern - you are offensive. Tens of thousands of us have a Messiah - and we believe that Barack Obama's policies more closely match what what we have been taught. To love one another, to feed the hungry, house the homeless, and tend to our ill.

Since Obama began running he has said it will not be easy. It will take al of us working hard all the time to begin to change things. That is another reason why his message has resonated with so many. It is sad that you are only first hearing him. But it is not too late.
"...Your old roads are rapidly fading. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand.." - B. Dylan

"..why does thou call to me Oh Lord, why does thou call me thy Lord, when you do not as I say?.."- Luke 6:46

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merveilleux:

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but why is it that Idaho favors McCain so heavily? I would have thought it would be a state in the deep south. Is Idaho extremely Republican?

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zotz:

The best that Strategic Vision can do for McCain in PA is give Obama a 5% lead, 49 to 44.
Needless to say that means Obama's support is higher than that. RCP doesn't count SV or PPP in its averages because of presumed bias.

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NextAmericanChapter:

@ MDB1974:

Strategic Vision has a pretty good, albeit Republican-leaning, record. PPP is only slightly better in terms of accuracy but tends to error on the side of Dems.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

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mysticlaker:

@next

That ap poll is an internet poll.

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Paul:

merveilleux:

Idaho exit poll is 2004 showed 93% white and more Republicans than Democrats and Independents combined.

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cambridge blue:

Hotline 48-41. M -1.

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hou04:

HOTLINE/DIAGEO

Obama 48 (unchanged)
McCain 41 (-1)

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hou04:

Anyone has RASMUSSEN yet?

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merveilleux:

Paul:

Oh, wow, I had no idea! I guess I'm one of the casual readers who falsely assumes West to mean Democrat. Thank you for that!

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politicalmomma2:

Re: the Strategic Vision poll in PA

Are RV numbers available for this poll? Some of the screens used for LV in other polls drop a lot of (potential) Obama voters.

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zigmeister:

Idaho has a large concentration of Mormons. They are very conservative, as you probably know.

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Paul:

Polls not pollster.com yet (from 538):
NC (Pol/IA) O 48 M 48
MO (Pol/IA) M 50 O 47
OR (PPP) O 57 M 42
PA (SV) O 49 M 44
MI (Det News) O 50 M 38
NJ (FD) O 53 M 35

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Angus Mc:

Ras today: Obama 51, McCain 47

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1magine:

SHOCKING NEWS - RCP INCLUDES SV POLL OF PA BUT NOT THEIR OTHER POLLS - - Just shocking.

"Gambling, there is gambling going on here? I am just shocked (my winnings please)..."

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mago:

@merveilleux

The inland West has been much more reliably Republican than the South. The exceptions are those places with a lot of Latinos.

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Atomique:

@NextAmericanChapter:

Actually, according to fivethirtyeight.com, PPP does not have a partisan lean in their polls.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/house-effects-in-da-house.html
"The pollsters with a Democratic lean tend to be national pollsters, which is one reason why our averages -- which are ultimately still based on state-by-state numbers -- have tended to be less favorable for Barack Obama than things like the RCP national average. Washington Post / ABC and New York Times / CBS have both had a little bit of a Dem-leaning effect. Quinnipiac's polls have been fairly Obama-friendly, but not enough to show up as statistically significant. PPP, a firm that has frequently been accused of/assumed to have a Democratic-leaning house effect in fact does not have one."

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NashvilleLefty:

@merveilleux


Maybe an Idahoan can speak to this better, but my understanding is this:

1. Idaho was settled after the Civil War by many Southerners, and the deepest roots of Idaho politics are southern in origin

2. Idaho's territorial days were in an era of Republican dominance, and the federal government appointed its executives, so a Republican political apparatus developed early

3. Non-urban areas of Rocky Mountain states have property ownership that descends directly from the Homestead Act. Homesteader culture (despite the original land grant by the federal government) tends to be against any sort of collective government action, and against taxation and regulation.

Parts of Idaho that have seen population growth from outside the state vote far more Democratic than the rest of the state. This pattern occurs in Montana, Colorado, and New Mexico as well.

And a bit of demographic speculation: there isn't a significant Hispanic population in the northern Rockies. Idaho was never a part of Spain/Mexico. And the Native American population is significantly lower than, say, Montana. These demographic groups tend to vote more Democratic, but are represented in Idaho in small numbers.

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muckinello:

@1magine,
Actually, RCP does not include SV in their average, still shows Obama +9.8 in PA

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UpperLeft:

@angus mc

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hou04:
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UpperLeft:

@angus mc

Is that a prediction or an actual Ras number?

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ricbrig:

Obama well about 50% in RAS is a very good thing. In average today there would not be much movement.

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Vercingetorix:

"Ras today: Obama 51, McCain 47"

That figures.

Monday was a pretty good day for Obama, and it just dropped off. Tuesday wasn't, and it's still included.

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SoloBJ:

I notice a pattern everyday where you have some polls that will Obama increasing his lead over McCain (ie Hotline, Kos) and other polls will show Obama's lead decreasing (ie RAS today.) Seems there are always polls on a daily basis that "feed" supporters on both sides.

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maddiekat:

Obama still at 51% with Ras...Steady as she goes!

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carl29:

RealClearPolitics CANNOT include Strategic Vision in their average because it is a REPUBLICAN pollster. RCP said that it will not include partisan pollster, just like PPP(D).

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C.S.Strowbridge:

southern angler: "Please tell all Obama supporters to forget about their wellfare checks and free health care."

The button says "intelligent and civil." Please aim for at least one in each post.

For that matter, please aim for on-topic. Pollster.com is for talking about poll numbers.

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ctj:

To all my fellow Obama supporters,

I know many of you are getting nervous about PA (Jack Murtha's idiotic and stupid comments certainly did not help any), but the bottom line is that if Obama wins Philadelphia by 450,000 votes or more (which according to an analysis I read over a month ago has a better than 95% chance of happening)it is virtually impossible for McCain to carry the state. He would have to beat Obama 70-30 in the rest of the state (excluding Pittsburgh) in order to have a shot and that is just not going to happen. I have been joking all week that Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt are making a secret deal to have Philadelphia secede to NJ by election day, but seriously John Kerry UNDERPERFORMED his expected #'s in PA and still won by 3 points- why- because he crushed Bush in Philadelphia! (net margin of 430,000 votes). Keep the faith PA stays blue!

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mysticlaker:

In honor of our old friend

RAS only 4 points!!!!

Statistical tie?

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orange24:

@SouthernAngler:
Please don't just copy-and-paste stories from FoxNews.com. Nobody on here cuts-and-pastes from the Huffington Post. If you have a store you'd like to share, please just reference the link and those that are interested can read it at their choosing. It's just a suggestion, but would be appreciated.

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Angus Mc:

That Ras number is from someone with a premium account. They've never misled me yet, so I'm 99% sure that's today's number.

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angrytoxicologist:

@ merveilleux

ID has a strong libertarian bent (almost suvivalist, one would say). Eastern OR and WA are similar. This expresses itself, generally, as republican votes. They are completely differnt from southern republicans. You may find the following book interesting as it shows and compares the values of different areas of the country and how they are changing(from a well-respected Canadian commercial pollster):

http://www.amazon.com/American-Backlash-Michael-Adams/dp/0670063703


As an interesting aside, one the the main findings of the book is that in terms of values, Democrats and Republicans are very similar compared to non-voters. In fact, some of the things we 'hate' about each other are generally attributes of non-voters, not the other party (for instance, gonzo every-man-for-himself capitalism on one side and godless hedonism on the other).

As a complete aside

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jamesia:

As for the Strategic Vision polling. They are a partisan (Republican) pollster. Sure, they show the race in PA at +5% Obama. There was the Mason-Dixon poll yesterday showing it at +4% Obama, but they significantly underestimate the Dem advantage in PA... Every other pollster has shown it at +10-13% Obama for weeks it seems. On the PA board of elections website, it shows party ID in the state. Democrats have a really wide advantage there.

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orange24:

Ras is very surprising to me. I really thought we'd see at least a one point bump from the info-mercial. Of course, as others were all over a few days ago, Ras cooked his numbers a little in McCain's favor. If someone has a premium account, it would be nice to see if he did again. But, I'm probably reaching now...

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merveilleux:

@ctj

I hope you're right! I feel this isn't McCain's election to win, it's Obama's to lose. And more than that, it's the Democrats' election to lose. All these stupid comments from surrogates and campaigners keep giving me a heart attack.

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Bonzi77:

@CS Trowbridge

Well, he did say please. So he got the civil part down, sort of.

On the topic of polls some network in Lousianna has McCain up only 43-40. That's a ridiculous number of undecideds and the poll is almost certainly not accurate, but the fact that such a poll can even be contructed really shows the depth of the upcoming Obama wave.

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jswarren:

I'm happier with Ras 51-47 than with Zogby 50-43.
The Obama # is the only one that matters. He hasn't slipped below 50 in Ras in about 6 weeks.

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Thatcher:

That Ras number makes me scratch my head ...

That would mean that McCain had an uptick on the day's polling following Obama's infomercial.

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ctj:

Does anyone know if a Ras Premium member can see the daily breakdown of his tracking poll the same way Kos does?

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Angus Mc:

Keep in mind that McCain had a good day of polling Tuesday (the day it went from 51-46 to 50-47), and that will roll off the 3-day Ras tracker in tomorrow's number. Assuming that a typical O+4 or O+5 day rolls on, I'd expect to see Ras open back up to 5 points or so tomorrow.

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paradski:

As for Ras, there is a still a good McCain day in the mix. IMHO this will go back to +5 or +6 tomorrow as this night rolls off.

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NextAmericanChapter:

FOUR DAYS TO RESCUE THE COUNTRY:

Well folks, we are now on the home stretch. Contrary to the current electoral map, we won't be able to coast to a victory. The GOP is unloading all the crap they can on Obama and he is going to need our help now more than ever.

If you can't volunteer officially, please canvass with your family, friends and co-workers. There are still some genuine undecideds out there and we need to get to as many as possible. Also, please vote early if you can and get others to do so as well.

This race has been exciting and it’s riveting to pour through the poll numbers as they are released. But let’s NEVER FORGET that this election is far more than an exciting horserace. It’s a referendum on the past eight years where the neocons have led us to the brink of disaster and Republican economic theories have crippled the middleclass.

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merveilleux:

@ everyone who talked about Idaho

Thank you for all of your information! I feel so much better informed and I appreciate your answering what might have been an obvious question.

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

It is so much nicer without our former friend here. Hopefully tommorow once the good day on Tuesday for M rolls off it will go back to 51-46,51-45, we shall see. I like that 5 point cushion, anything under that and I start to get nervous, anyone want to guess if Battleground will be 49-46 again today?

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SoloBJ:

@orange24,
I thought we would see the same for RAS. It seems like Obama has upticked in all of the other polls thus far. I thought we would see RAS unchanged today or O +6. Oh well..

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politicalmomma2:

Here is an interesting polling number to ponder: Politico/Insider Advantage has McCain at +2 over Obama in Missouri. Alas, the write-up indicates that the poll found 65% support for Obama among African-Americans. Is this plausible in MO? Is there anything about the state that would suggest strong conservatism among African-American voters there that differentiates them from, say, NC voters?

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ricbrig:

I don't find any particular reason to be worried about RAS numbers, since again we have a confirmation of a very stiff Obama support curve and climbing (in the worst case scenario) as a result of a gathering of the base and coming back of the soft support hovering in the undecided area.

Anyway I'm looking forward to GWU in order to see if they still poll or they will say O+3 today as well. Also it's the last time GWU will give use valuable numbers since the will not poll in the weekends

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paradski:

I also think that Hotline goes back to +8 or +9 tommorrow as a good McCain rolls off.

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MichaelJason:

Southern Angler, you are a very nasty and mean spirited person. You are also racist by implying Obama's supporters are "welfare recipients". I suggest you grow up.

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Thatcher:

@politicalmomma2 -

There is no way in no state that Obama isn't getting less that 90% of the AA vote. (Heck I'd say there's no way he's getting less than 96% of the AA vote in any state).

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ricbrig:

corrige: *climbing of McCain support curve

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Angus Mc:

Nope, Ras will post internals for the full 3 day period, but leave everyone guessing as to what each day's number was.

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jeepdad:

So McCain gained a point in Rasmussen? It was probably only a few tenths of a point that moved the numbers. Bottom line, McCain isn't moving the numbers like he needs, and a weekend full of college football, NFL games and family outings won't give McCain the attention he needs to make a final plea with voters.

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Obama008:

Yeah I tend to agree that Obama is going to get high 90s on the AA vote. Not sure how they polled but really 65%, that is a flatout lie.

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1magine:

I'd prefer 52-47 or even 52-48- though National numbers mean almost nothing in the last week. State polls are the polls that matter. CO, VA, NC, FL, OH (I think IN and MO are probally breaking Republican at this point, though I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they went the other way).

I'll take 4-8 +O in these states knowing what the GOTV effort is. Especially knowing if BO take one of these its over.

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DecaturMark:

@politicalmomma2:

It is probable that they had a small sample size of AAs and the numbers are skewed because of that. It also means that they might not have polled too heavily in St Louis which is where Obama has the strongest support. I have not seen the internals, but that is a reasonable explanation for the 65% AA vote for Obama.

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Vercingetorix:

"That would mean that McCain had an uptick on the day's polling following Obama's infomercial."

Not necessarily. It just means that yesterday's polling was a little worse for Obama than Monday's. Monday must have been a strong day for Obama, because it steadied the poll after a big drop of three points the day before.

So yesterday could still have been average or a bit better.

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MaxMBJ:

I gotta say, with the Thug-ocratic removal of Boomshak from these parts, it's a whole lot less interesting. I dunno, maybe it's just me but listening to a group of clones discuss how much their DNA is alike gets a little old.

But I guess that's what we should get used to. When Obama is elected and all the people who dare to speak out against him are scourged and banned and sent to Siberia, we'll get to hear these kind of groupspeak conversations all over the place.

Up with the Fairness Doctrine! Up with the Thugocracy! Big Brother is watching you.

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Angus Mc:

If Obama gets less than 90% of black support in MO, I'll eat my hat. If I had a hat, that is...

I'd be stunned if GWU/BG posted anything other than 49-46%. Frankly, I think they stopped polling a few days ago and are just entering their last numbers. (Kidding!)

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SoloBJ:

Palin campaigning again in PA today. Where is Hillary? I would love to see her back there before Election Day.

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merveilleux:

Why is Gallup so poorly rated on 538? Are they slanted one way or do they suck for some other reason?

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9 Below Zero:
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ricbrig:

@MaxMBJ so instead of complaining please give your original contribution to the community. Is insulting part of a constructive discussion? I don't think so

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politicalmomma2:

I misreported the MO number on Politico/Insider Advantage: it is McCain by 3. Sorry about that. Alas, it might not be too accurate in any case.

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Mike A.:

I don't think Ras includes cell-phone only. I could be wrong. 1 point change isn't really much :)

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Thatcher:

@merveilleux:

This primer should help understand about Gallup:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html

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The_Huntsman:

MaxMBJ, I guess it's too much to ask Republicans to remain civil even when they know 2nd-graders are reading their comments.

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tar_heel:

Ras 51-47--but he states that the narrowing comes entirely from M solidifying his support. He sees no budge in O's support.

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DCDemocrat:

McCain's number in the Rasmussen poll has gone from 47-46-47 on three successive days. The phenomenon well might be an artifact of rounding with a fraction of a point explaining the fluctuation across the three days.

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sunnymi:


Rasmussen Daily Tracking

Obama - 51%
McCain - 47%

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain's support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month. However, while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground.This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

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Thatcher:

Per Rasmussen:

Another way of looking at it is that McCain's support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days.

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mysticlaker:

Ras gives some information:

The Rasmussen Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 47%.

Over the past five days, Obama's lead has been between three and five percentage points each day. That's a bit tighter than the four to eight point margins enjoyed by the Democrat for the previous month (see trends).

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain's support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month.
However, while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground.This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

Is this the Tue-Friday then?

50 51 52
47 46 47

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bmrKY:

@Max

Boom got banned because he made nasty racial comments about Obama and that Obama hates Jews, not because he "dared to speak up against Obama."

And I remember the conservatives saying some pretty nasty things about people who didn't support Bush during the 2001-2005 time frame, before everyone except for the far right fringe realized just how awful Bush was.

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sunnymi:

Also from Rasmussen:

It is impossible to overstate the importance of Obama's tax cut promise to his current lead in the polls. Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters now believe that their taxes will go down if Obama is elected. Only 11% believe that will happen if McCain wins. Obama has made remarkable progress on this issue in recent months. In August, only 9% believed Obama would cut their taxes

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Thatcher:

@mysticlaker

or other similar dailies.

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Napoleon Complex:

@MaxMBJ:

boomshak got himself banned. I wish he were here only because he did more to support the Obama campaign than anyone else on this board. His cherry picking of information and his intellectual dishonesty were a daily reminder of how the Republicans got us into the mess we're in now.

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tar_heel:

mystic:

I think you nailed it. The day of the 3-percent gap was the one that had Obama's bad Sunday and McCain's good Tuesday in it. And O's Monday was better than Tuesday. Tomorrow, this should be back up to a 5-point lead if the patterns from the last two days hold.

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SoloBJ:

Anyone have the poll numbers for Morning Call's poll yet? RCP is showing Obama +4 now in GWU/Battleground poll today.

____________________

bmrKY:

@SoloBJ

Morning Call had Obama up 10.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Well, maybe instead of banning Boomshak they could've just asked him nicely to cool it. I know, I know, Mark says he did that. But I read a lot of nasty comments by the clones with a lot of F-words and they somehow don't seem to have been banned.

Look at what happened to Joe the Plumber. He asks a question and the poison sacs inside the Dem-led Ohio animals start manufacturing poison. This is also what happens to any reporter who dares question His Lordship. Dean Reynolds? He gone.

If His Lordship has his way, Rush Limbaugh will be silenced next. And any anti-union people will be flushed out to be publicly scourged.

You clones may be enjoying the Crowd effect now, but one day His Lordship will cease giving speeches to 100,000 and you'll be back shivering in your cubicles wondering why you're scared to tell anyone what you really think about anything.

____________________

bmrKY:

Mark did ask Boom to cool it and to apologize. Boom refused to do so. Please stop defending that racist freak, it only makes you look as bad as boom himself.

____________________

Aristotle:

Is it just me or do the national polls seem to tighten because the networks want to maintain viewership? Am I out of line here?

The state polls (yes I know they lag) don't seem to be moving and in most cases seem to support a growing mandate for Obama.

I think the difference between the polls is telling. Your thoughts?

____________________

Mark Lindeman:

@The_Huntsman: No need to generalize about "Republicans" -- the vast majority of whom would never think of posting flame bait here.

My suggestion to all: if someone posts something inappropriate, say why it's inappropriate; try not to generalize about the person or groups of people. And, no, I don't have the integrity to link to my most spectacular violations of my own advice. ;)

____________________

mysticlaker:

@max

mark asked boom to explain himself, and he did not. he gave him a chance.

____________________

political_junki:

Does anybody know of the Obama events in PA? I think they should spend more time there?
Where you can get the campaign schedules?

____________________

Thatcher:

@SoloBJ:

Holy Crap - Battleground DID move ... one tick down for McCain ...

When I went to look at the pdf - RCP had yesterday's link ... here's the link for today's graphic http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_103108_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

____________________

pbcrunch:

AP/Yahoo National LV:

O 52
M 43

This poll has a unique methodology. Apparently, they have been interviewing the same people in 9 different "waves" since December.

Odd that it wasn't hyped on Drudge again... :)

____________________

pbcrunch:

@political_junki:

dailykos.com has a daily roundup of candidate appearances.

____________________

Batony:

Two things:

Republican pollster or not Strategic Vision last poll for PA in 2004 was Kerry 47% Bush 46%, Kerry won 51-49

Mason-Dixon in 2004 for PA:
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 46%

So take that for what it's worth.

My question is no McCain supporter in Va believes McCain will lose the state, and no Obama supporter I've talk to is totally confident. Plus 3 out of the last 4 polls taken, give Obama a 4 point lead.

Honestly at this point, I don't know where this thing will end. Obama come blow McCain out of the water, barely beat McCain or McCain could actually sneak out a victory somehow. This is weird.

____________________

OGLiberal:

I watched a short video analysis by Scott Rasmussen on his site. While he said that there has been some tightening in some of the national polls, the race really isn't that close. He pointed out that even if McCain wins all 6 of the Fox/Ras Battleground states - in which Obama currently leads in 4 and is tied in two - he still loses because that would be a 269-269 EV tie. He noted that Obama has been at or above 50 for 36 straight days and that this is the most important piece of data to consider. He concluded by saying that unless Obama dips below 50 in his national tracker before election day and stays there, it's not going to be a good night for McCain on November 4.

This is straight from the mouth of Scott Rasmussen. In essence, he's saying that barring some unforeseen event or some shift away from Obama that hasn't happened in over a month, this one is essentially over.

Btw, I'm more than happy with Obama at 51-47 in Rasmussen's tracker this late in the game.

____________________

ricbrig:

you can land a plan on the 49% strip on GWU, odd since they showed quite a sensitivity until the beginning of october and I remember they polled McCain +1% well after the convention bounce.

____________________

SoloBJ:

@political_junki,
I said the same thing. I saw Obama's upcoming schedule and it doesn't include PA. I hope Hillary makes a visit there. Palin is campaigning there now and McCain is due back there again.

Is it true that Morning Call is showing Obama +10 today? He was up +13 yesterday.

____________________

Aristotle:

Does that BattleGround Poll start to intimate a break of the undecideds to Obama?

____________________

political_junki:

pbcrunch:
Thanx. I dont understand why would he go to IA or IN? I dont think there is any reason to be that confident about PA?

____________________

Thatcher:

@Aristotle:

State polls don't lag anymore in this day and age of 24/7 news: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Oh, I get it. I'm a racist because I defend Boom who you claim is one.

Interesting. So does launching a campaign in a terrorist's living room make one a terrorist?

Oops, I keep forgetting: the rules only apply to those of us who haven't drunk the Kool-aid.

____________________

political_junki:

Based on PPP polls Obama is as good as won in NM and CO...
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

____________________

pbcrunch:

Not worried about PA. The polls there were bound to tighten with the amount of resources McCain is pouring into the state. It's still a relatively safe Obama state and he has the GOTV effort to ensure a victory... a GOTV effort that McCain has consciously decided to not even try to match, according to the WaPo.

____________________

Obama_is_tight:

Obama has to up his game in PA because it looks like it really is getting close (2 polls now have him with a 5 or less point lead). That may be a trend.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@max.@bmr

let's try and cool it...it's not worth it. let's just talk about the polls and politics. the personal stuff is what is causing the problems here (and in our country).

____________________

political_junki:

"pbcrunch:
Not worried about PA."

Good to know, although I hope I could be that confident about PA...

____________________

political_junki:

"MaxMBJ:
Oh, I get it. I'm a racist because I defend Boom who you claim is one."

Lets just talk about polls here, I am sure there are 25000 forums out there for the kind of discussion you want to start/have.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Okay, I'll cool it. But the banning of Boomshak really bothers me.

Anyway, what are the two polls showing Obama's lead 5 or less? Is there a new one out?

____________________

bmrKY:

Max, dude, just calm down. I don't know why you are so angry at Obama supporters. No one is going to shut down Rush Limbaugh's stupid radio show. No one called you a racist. I said it made you look bad because you are defending boom, who did not apologize or take responsibility for his racist remarks about Obama and Obama's support of Jews. Just chill with your anti-Obama conspiracy theories. Either you are here to discuss the polls or not. If not, and if you cannot be "intelligent and civil" like the submit button requests, then just don't post. This site is for discussing poll numbers, not conspiracy theories.

____________________

merveilleux:

@Max:

If Obama defended Ayers now, I would hold him to the same standard. Last I checked, he condemned him, but you're currently defending a racist.

____________________

purplevoter:

I am an Obama supporter and I too miss Boom.
I think Southern Angler is, in many ways, more offensive.
Boom was at times inappropriate but at least he added to the conversation. Angler is purely destructive.


It looks like there is little change in all the National polls. Whatever is there could very easily be noise. Right now, what counts are the State polls and they have been solid Obama. Now it all depends on the ground game and the GOTV. I hope that the Obama team is as good as what we have been hearing. Talk to any young voter you can and make sure they go out and vote. Most will vote for Obama but they need to go!!!

____________________

Obama_is_tight:

Oh and Ras has been very stable lately...looks like this is gonna be down to the nail. And I miss boom :(

____________________

tar_heel:

bmrKY: where did you get those Morning Call numbers? The Muhlenberg website does not show an update to yesterday's 13-point lead in the polls. A movement to 10 points would be significant, indicating that Obama likely had no better than a 4-point day yesterday.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

MaxMBJ:
"Oh, I get it. I'm a racist because I defend Boom who you claim is one.

Interesting. So does launching a campaign in a terrorist's living room make one a terrorist?

Oops, I keep forgetting: the rules only apply to those of us who haven't drunk the Kool-aid."

This kind of vitriol isn't doing your side any good at all, and it's at least a portion of the reason why the democrats are going to win this time. People are sick of it. But by all means, continue to make yourself more and more irrelvant.

Anyway, it looks like another up and down polling day, but the trends look pretty solid.

____________________

carl29:

Obama_is_tight,

"it looks like it really is getting close (2 polls now have him with a 5 or less point lead)"

I am not sure if one of the polls you are refering to is Mason-Dixon, but if that is the case, I don't thin you can use it to prove that the race is getting "closer." Why? Mason-Dixon previous poll had Obama up by +2%, now it's Obama up by 4%, so the question is, Did Mason-Dixon find it closer than before? I don't know :-)

Strategic Vision is a REPUBLICAN pollster, is the the best source of objective information? I don't know :-)

____________________

carl29:

Get this guys:

"Obama going up on TV in AZ, ND and GA"

Obama manager David Plouffe opens up a media conference call with the announcement that they're going on TV in three deep red states: Arizona, North Dakota, and Georgia.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

I am quite certain that the reason Obama isn't making a huge final push into PA is because his campaign knows there isn't any need for it.

____________________

zotz:

"Oh, I get it. I'm a racist because I defend Boom who you claim is one."

Boom was banned because of race-baiting. If your criticisms of Obama had anything to do with real issues you would be given respect. Simply repeating lies and already disproven smears is a good way of being labeled as a troll. Either raise the intelligence level of your comments or go away.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

carl29:
Get this guys:

"Obama going up on TV in AZ, ND and GA"

Obama manager David Plouffe opens up a media conference call with the announcement that they're going on TV in three deep red states: Arizona, North Dakota, and Georgia."

Right. The Obama campaign would have to be insane/utterly stupid to put a bunch of resources into these states if PA was in any real jeopardy. Based on the track record so far, I trust that they are neither.

____________________

bmrKY:

@tar_heel

http://www.mcall.com/news/elections/all-election-president,0,155695.htmlpage

O 53
M 43

I found it posted on OpenLeft.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Hm. I just discovered that the conservative Washington Times has been banned from the Obama campaign.

And I'm a bad guy for pointing these kind of things out.

Oh, yeah, I'm supposed to "raise my intelligence level or go away." I get it: if you say something anti-Obama, you're dumb. And I'm a troll.

Really, this atmosphere is chilling.

____________________

Obama_is_tight:

carl29:

Yeah the mason one and SV. I don't like to check differnt polls and just look at them...I stand back and look from far away and see if more than one shows up in the same level. Also Ras had a 7 lead not too long ago. I do agree that there is an uptick in mason but clearly the race is getting closer.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

And now the New York Post!

Looks like Halloween has already begun.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

And now the New York Post!

Looks like Halloween has already begun and the Obama people are giving out Kool-aid for treats.

____________________

tar_heel:

Thanks--M must have had an awesome night of polling to pull a five-day tracker down from 14 to 10 points. Of course, the sample size is small--600 overall, or 120 each night.

____________________

carl29:

bmrKY,

This very reliable tracking poll confirms what the Obama campaign knows, Obama support is consolidated around 53%. If you notice, McCain is the only one whose numbers move, but Obama never, ever drops below 50%.

See why the Obama campaign is not all crazy about PA? They know how things are on the ground, and thanks to Ed Rendell, Michael Nutter, and the whole Democratic machinery in the state the Republicans have an up-hill battle to robe the election in the state :-)


*Did you hear that McCain will campaign in AZ on Monday? Oh dear that speaks volumes about McCain service to his constituence. They don't look to happy with him.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

And now the Dallas Morning News!

All three endorsed McCain.

I just can't wait til Obama is president and he can purge the land of all contrary opinion.

(I better be careful. Someone is probably already checking out my ISP.)

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

Obama_is_tight:
carl29:

"Yeah the mason one and SV. I don't like to check differnt polls and just look at them...I stand back and look from far away and see if more than one shows up in the same level. Also Ras had a 7 lead not too long ago. I do agree that there is an uptick in mason but clearly the race is getting closer."

It might be, it probably is in fact. But that is a long way away from Obama losing it. It's a democratic state and has been for 20+ years. Even Mondale of all people did reasonably well in PA. I would only worry if polls come out showing McCain with a lead.

____________________

bmrKY:

Liberals were persecuted for saying anything anti-Bush from 2001-2005. Please, stop espousing your conspiracy theories on here. This is a polling discussion web site, not a conspiracy theory site where people like boom can say as many nasty, racist things as they like. Boom really wasn't nothing special, and gave conservatives a bad name, so I don't know why you are taking his departure so difficultly. Barack Obama has nothing to do with this website and he had nothing to do with boom getting banned. I'm sure if I went to the free republic or Hannity's message board and started posting about how McCain is in league with crazy neocons like Pat Robertson and John Hagee that I would be banned within 5 minutes. Boom was given many chances to stop with the conspiracy theories and each time he just kept going more and more extreme. There are tons of websites and blogs you can go to if you want to post anti-Obama conspiracy theories. I repeat:

THIS IS A POLLING DISCUSSION WEB SITE, NOT A CONSPIRACY THEORY WEB SITE!

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Joe the Plumber is investigated at the highest levels in the state of Ohio by Obama supporters.

Boomshak is banned by Pollster.com.

New York Post, Washington Times, and Dallas News banned by team Obama.

Fairness Doctrine waiting in wings.

Meanwhile, neither Obama nor Biden have a press conference for over a month. They are interviewed by Ellen and Jon Stewart instead.

Personally, I think Team Obama should hire cheerleaders like the Chinese had at the Olympics. No wait! No need. They've already got them. They're called the Mainstream Media.

Well, it ain't over yet. The people still are allowed to vote privately (maybe for the last time). Let's hope they speak loudly for John McCain.

____________________

carl29:

Obama_is_tight,

I think that you pay attention the the spread, you know +5, +3, +10 etc,. I don't do it that way because I think it is a HUGE mistake. I pay attention to the level of support of each candidate. To me is not the # that McCain reaches but the # that Obama keeps. Even McCain people think that it is key for Obama to stay above 50% because the majority of those undecided will, in my opinion, go for McCain.

*Again just my opinion, and I could be wrong. To me level of support is a much stronger indication than spread :-)

____________________

bmrKY:

Why did I even bother. You are hopeless, max.

I REPEAT

THIS IS A POLLING DISCUSSION BOARD! NOT A BASH OBAMA CONSPIRACY THEORY BOARD!

We have 2nd graders reading this website, and yet you continue in your conspiracy theories. You are totally classless.

____________________

AtlantaBill:

@politicalmomma2:
"poll found 65% support for Obama among African-Americans. Is this plausible in MO?"

Hey pm - as an AA I certainly don't proclaim to know how all AA's think but i'd bet my life (or what remains of my 401k) that the 65% number is bogus. I travel up and down the east coast and can tell you that i've run into only one (1) AA that did not express support for BO. That one indivdual happens to be my younger brother. He spent most of his adult life in the military and has a slant which i've never understood. living much of his adult life in tx (and drinking that rio grande water) hasn't helped either.

My expectation is that Obama will get between 92 - 96% of the AA vote nationwide. so relax and let the pollsters do what pollsters do - AAs will vote overwhelmingly for BO. generally, we vote 90% for the dems regardless of who is running. surely BO will exceed that percentage by at least 5%.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Okay, you're right. This is a poll web site and maybe my comments are off the mark.

But have you complained about the clones comments that get off on Fox, etc. for being off the mark? I don't recall those rebukes.

Anyway, if I could find a good place to discuss these things without being called a troll, I'd love to. I really would like to know how all you Obama people feel about these suppression activities going on. Don't they bother you? Doesn't it bother you that the ACLU says nothing in defense of Joe the Plumber?

____________________

Mark:

The New York Post is more like The Enquirer than The Wall Street Journal. If I had limited space on my plane, I would probably drop highly-partisan, right-wing newspapers with abysmal editorial standards. What's so strange about that? They're still free to cover the election. The Obama campaign owes them nothing.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

bmrKY:
"Liberals were persecuted for saying anything anti-Bush from 2001-2005. Please, stop espousing your conspiracy theories on here. This is a polling discussion web site, not a conspiracy theory site where people like boom can say as many nasty, racist things as they like. Boom really wasn't nothing special, and gave conservatives a bad name, so I don't know why you are taking his departure so difficultly. Barack Obama has nothing to do with this website and he had nothing to do with boom getting banned. I'm sure if I went to the free republic or Hannity's message board and started posting about how McCain is in league with crazy neocons like Pat Robertson and John Hagee that I would be banned within 5 minutes."

Just as an example, at redstate they will ban you at the drop of a hat for the slightest "liberal" infractions, and they take pleasure in it too. I have seen liberal posters who were polite and rational being harrassed or banned for very little. But when it's your website, you make the rules.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Mark,

Well, yeah, the Post is a tad sensational. But do you really think it looks good for three news agencies, all pro-McCain, to get kicked off the plane here at the end? Why were they permitted to be on the plane before this? Doesn't this show that as Obama nears the finish line thinking he's got it in the bag that the mask of fairness is coming off?

And by the way, there is nothing in my comments that suggest conspiracy. That's just another name some of you feel compelled to throw when a single, lone voice in the wildnerness cries out against your Messiah.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

By the way, I'm opposed to banning people from any site that claims to allow fair and open debate. If Redstate really does that, boo and hiss to them. (Big if there.)

I've gone to DailyKos a number of times and posted and I've never gotten banned. That's to Markos' credit. I've gotten called a troll so often I start my comments with "Troll Alert." But at least they never banned me.

Of course, I don't say ban-worthy things. Boomshak did when he spewed racist stuff. My point is that he should have been talked to and then put on probation.

When the ATF went after the Branch Davidians it was typical government heavy-handedness. Many people said if they had just talked to Koresh they could have resolved a lot of the problems. Instead, the sent in the tanks.

This is what I fear about an Obama administration. I'm begging you all: give me some reason to believe I'm wrong.

____________________

bmrKY:

@Max

The difference is, the anti-Fox posters aren't on here screaming MCCAINZ A TERRORIST! HEZ GONNA LOCK AWAY ALL THE LIBERAL MEDIA SOURCES! HEZ A COMMIE! GET USED TO DICTATORSHIP RULE UNDER MCCAIN!

Just step back from the screen and look at some of the stuff you are posting from an independent perspective. I'm not telling you that you have to vote for or even like Obama. I could care less if you vote for John McCain or Ross Perot or Ross Geller. And I'll admit, I'm biased and I don't like Fox News and I think a lot of their coverage is over the top. But they are entitled to their opinion, and people are entitled to say that they hate Fox News. It's how freedom of speech works. The NY Post and Washington Times are entitled to write whatever they want about Obama. And likewise, Obama is entitled to tell them to take a flying leap. I don't recall you calling out John McCain, GW Bush, Sarah Palin and others for negatively attacking the New York Times over the years. That's because you don't have to. They are free to attack the Times and MSNBC, and liberals are free to attack the Post and Fox News. It may be petty, but both sides try and attack the media that doesn't agree with them. That's just how it goes. One party or candidate didn't just all of a sudden invent attacking media they don't like. They all do it.

Now please, stop with the conspiracy theories.

____________________

bmrKY:

"I'm begging you all: give me some reason to believe I'm wrong."

Well, for starters, you're a conservative.

Sorry, you left yourself wide open for that one :)

____________________

Mister H.:

Hm. I just discovered that the conservative Washington Times has been banned from the Obama campaign. And I'm a bad guy for pointing these kind of things out. Oh, yeah, I'm supposed to "raise my intelligence level or go away." I get it: if you say something anti-Obama, you're dumb. And I'm a troll. Really, this atmosphere is chilling.


Actually, Max, it's been discussed quite a bit on this site.

And this kind of thing is pretty typical. McCain has banned reporters from the NYT and other pubs, for example. So please stop insinuating that this is some kind of nefarious operation that has never occured before...

____________________

MaxMBJ:

McCain hasn't dumped the NY Times from his plane. Palin has done interviews with ABC and CBS. GW Bush has never censored or banned any press group as far as I know.

I agree that Fox is often over the top. Bill O'Reilly is a meglomaniac, plain and simple. But according to two recent news bias surveys, Fox was rated the most "fair and balanced" of the media ... by far.

Slate Magazine asked their staff to show their hands. The vote: 55 for Obama, 1 for McCain, 1 for Bob Barr. At Fox I've heard the ration is fairly close to even between McCain supporters and Obama supporters. For every Sean Hannity you've got an Alan Colmes ... or Geraldo Rivera. Many of the women you see are Obama supporters.

Yet Fox gets called biased. Why? Because people on the left has lived in a left-dominated media their entire lives to the point they think it's center. It isn't.

Oh, well. I guess I'm done with this rant. For making my points here I've been called -- repeatedly -- a conspiratorialist (with absolutely no evidence to support it), a troll, and it's been hinted that I'm a racist because I defended Boomshak.

That's the atmosphere of an Obama administration that I fear.

But I really am done. You who hate this sort of thing can go back to saying, "Wow, look, he's got Pennsylvania so sewed up he's putting on ads in Arizona! Arizona, for gosh sakes!" (High five to neighbor.) "We've got this baby so sewn up it's ridiculous."

____________________

Mister H.:

McCain hasn't dumped the NY Times from his plane.


Sorry...but you are just wrong.

In the same place where I saw the article this morning talking (cnn.com or msnbc.com) about the Washington Post dust-up, it also noted that McCain had done the same thing to some specific NYT talent.

Of course, I assume you will say "Well, he probably still allows some NYT people that he likes to ride along with them." And that is true.

But the over-arching point here is that Obama is not the first candidate to bump people off the media transport to make room for national reporters, etc. And again, even this summer, I specifically remember a report that McCain had removed some folks from his bus for similar reasons.

LOL....There was even a rally down in the south (Florida, I believe) late this summer where he refused to talk to local reporters that he deemed as "non-supportive."

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Aristotle:
"The state polls (yes I know they lag)"

Debunked:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html

____________________



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