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US: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Gallup-10/14-16)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/14-16/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

Registered Voters (2,805, 2%)
Obama 50, McCain 43

**Likely Voters-Expanded** (2,314, 2%)
Obama 51, mcCain 45

Likely Voters-Traditional (2,155, 2%)
Obama 49, McCain 47

 

Comments
kerrchdavis:

Boomshaks most ACCURATE pollster: TIPP has Obama's leading growing to 5 points this week from 2 on Monday.

lol, talk about looking like a fool. You spend all week talking about a McCain surge, and then the pollster than you deem most accurate comes out with a poll that completely contradicts what you say.

epic fail.

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carl29:

I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 48.7 McCain 43.7
Hotline, Obama 50 McCain 40
Battleground, Obama 49 McCain 45
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
Traditional

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 43.3

YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
Traditional

Average: Obama 49.4 McCain 44.4

Obama steady; McCain not as strong as yesterday. We'll see how things move in the following days :-)


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IndependentThinker:

Obviously even though the Gallup shows an increase of +1 for Obama among RV, some people on this blog will cherry pick the third one to corroborates their talking points
Here's my thought about Gallup : no significant change

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political_junki:

Something that got lost in other news was that second poll in a row showed ND with O2+!
DailyKos has a poll in the field which will be released next week, cant wait for that :)

Also PPP is going to poll WV. That should be interesting too.

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political_junki:
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maddiekat:

Give it 5 days and Boobshak will be telling everyone what a great pollster Hotline is.

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Flashlight:

Which model's more reliable - old new or registered?

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muckinello:

@Kerr,

where did you get the TIPP numbers? As far as Boom.. he is used to jump from poll to poll

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paradski:

the incredible -1.1 surge.

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sunnymi:

@political_junk1

DKos/R2K poll for ND will be released today.

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NorseSoccer:

Very interesting.

While Obama can still clearly win under the Traditional scenario, the election (at this point) clearly seems to hang on the GOTV machine for the Democrats. If the traditionally non-voting youth and minorities change their patterns this election, it would seem to be in the bag.

I am hopeful that this increased turnout will happen for a couple reasons

1) High turnout during primaries
2) Increased voter registration
3) High visibility of election
4) Huge ratings for debates
5) High turnout for African Americans in early voting in some states
6) Boomshak moonbats touting the 49-47 Traditional method close race to scare maybe/maybe not voters to polls

Just a random sample of my ideas

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Batony:

SUSA

Florida:

McCain: 49
Obama: 47

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kerrchdavis:
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PortlandRocks:

I can't wait for the ND #'s!:) 2 so far showing +2 and +3 Obama. SHOCKING but NOT REALLY.

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1503er:

How do we decide which of the three models Gallup is using is correct?

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political_junki:

@sunnymi:
Thank you.


@Batony:
That poll has only 10% AA and Obama is winning 75% of AA?? Even Kerry did better than that :)

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

when McCain starts leading in places like Co and VA, you let us know ok?

btw, he's running out of time.

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1503er:

NorseSoccer

Yikes! I firmly believe that if we're to rely on a 'new' voting model, then Obama is toast. I wouldn't put my eggs in a high youth and AA turnout. Its never materialized in the past so other than hopeful thinking why would it now. Just like Joe Biden said, remember, Al Gore was leading by double digits in October 2000.

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sunnymi:


States like ND can switch due to turnout on the election day since they have no registration deadline. Obama can afford to advertise there is he so chooses as it is very cheap.

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Batony:

What are you guys talking about the ND polls are already on realclearpolitics.com. The only problem with that +3 lead, is that it is the same lead Obama had in ND by the same polling firm from 8/23-8/27 and it was done for a union?

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maddiekat:

Lets see 8 years of perhaps the worse Presidential Administration in history, two wars, an economic meltdown, the first AA candidate, the oldest candidate in history, a very radical female as a VP candidate, and the most voters ever added to the voting rolls in history. I do not think I would go with Gallups traditional LV method.

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muckinello:

@Kerr
Thanks for the link. Looks like RCP average will still be the same today. Surge? I don't think so....

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PortlandRocks:

1503er the problem is even a WORST case scenerio 2% Obama lead is a an Obama electoral win. Bush lead Kerry by 1.8% on average heading into election day 2004.

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NorseSoccer:

@1503er

Agreed. This is why I prefaced that even assuming Traditional voting patterns, Obama still leads. And any additional enthusiasm by Y/AA is good, as well as any reduced enthusiasm (vs Bush elections) by evangelicals is good.

Just more reasons that McCain is shooting for a narrow victory and Obama has many roads to success.

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sunnymi:

@Batony, you said "What are you guys talking about the ND polls are already on realclearpolitics.com. The only problem with that +3 lead, is that it is the same lead Obama had in ND by the same polling firm from 8/23-8/27 and it was done for a union?"

There is another poll due out today for ND from R2K.

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sunnymi:


The last 2 polls R2K did for ND in July and September had McCain up by +3 and +13 respectively.

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PortlandRocks:

Thank you for bringing that up. The PRIMARIES saw RECORD voter turn out, far outweighing 2004. Now they will all stay home:) That's logical.

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kerrchdavis:

Can we please get boomshak in here to explain to us how McCain is surging when he has fallen behind in 95% of battleground state polls and his own self-proclaimed most accurate pollster has Obama's lead growing from 2 points at the start of the week to 5 points today?

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PortlandRocks:

In regards to ND. Even if a "union" PAID for the poll it was conducted by a reputable pollster. Just because Rasmussen is a Republican, although he may be conservative in his party ID, I like it, because it gives me a conservative view of how the race stands today.

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Batony:

@political_junki:

There are blacks who will not be voting for Obama. C'mon now don't put everyone under one umbrella, but of course you will not hear in it the local media, but a lot of blacks are not too thrilled with a man who is half-white, no connection to the Civil Rights issue being considered the 1st black President. You ever see those blacks who heckle Obama everytime he comes to Florida? They are for real. So don't dismiss a poll when they say he will not get every single black vote.

I can go into further detail, but just don't assume all blacks are thrilled with Obama.

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Kiera_Lynn:

I think you can toss likely voter models out the window. I don't think most people realize the organization of the Obama ground game. Yes I am biased, and yes I am part of the volunteer force, but I can honestly say I have never seen such precision within a grassroots organizing effort. Each local group is given very clear numbers of how many persuadable voters are in the community and set expectations on how many actual votes each area can deliver. There is a level of accountability not typically found in volunteer groups. This isn't ACORN, we aren't delivering mass registrations of fictitious persons, these are actual live votes, most of which have not been cast by people that pollsters would deem "likely voters".

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carl29:

1503er,

These are the polls from early October 2000:

Here are some actual numbers:

CNN/TIME POLL: Oct. 4-5 (2000)

Bush 47%
Gore 45%


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL: Oct. 6-8 (2000)

Bush 52%
Gore 42%


POA (Rasmussen) POLL: Oct. 8-10 (2000)

Bush 45%
Gore 40%

GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL: Oct. 11 (2000)

Bush 45%
Gore 45%

GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL: Oct. 14 (2000)

Bush 48%
Gore 44%

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL: Oct. 16 (2000)

Bush 48%
Gore 43%

ZOGBY POLL: Oct 16 (2000)

Bush 44%
Gore 42%


NEWSWEEK POLL: Oct 16 (2000)

Bush 45%
Gore 43%

=======================

What is exactly the poll were Gore was leading? Haven't you heard about outliers? Obviously the overwhelming majority of pollsters had Bush ahead :-)

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PortlandRocks:

Kiera_Lynn ACORN delivered MASSIVE registrations that were CORRECT. The ficticious people were CAUGHT by ACORN and the notion that these people MICKEY MOUSE can show up to a polling station and VOTE is absolutely ridiculous. ACORN is a great organization, one that MCCAIN supported in 2006.

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DTM:

@1503er

Well, one place the need to adjustment the traditional voter model showed up was in the Democratic primaries this year. Another place it has been showing up is in early voting this year. For that matter, to some extent it showed up in the 2006 midterms.

So, while in the end we will only know for sure if a new voter model is appropriate after the election, I would hesistate to rule that possibility out.

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PortlandRocks:

I love it how ANYONE with THOUGHT could compare this election to GORE. The nation was in GREAT shape. We had a sex scandal in the white house. And the electorate was looking to VALUE VOTE. AND WE GOT BUSH! LOL

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rosh400:

These rolling average foundation of the tracking polls leads to some strange oscillations at times. The Gallup Tracking Poll released on 10/12 showed O+3. The release on 10/13 showed O+6. To yield a net +3 overnight, the difference between the day dropped and the day added must have been +9 (9/3 =+3). I don't have access to the daily samples but according to my spreadsheet, one scenario is that a +7 was dropped and replaced by a +16, which is very likely an outlier. Nevertheless, the +16 is part of the sample for 3 days.
Moving on to 10/14, there was a one point click down to O+9 -- meaning a +3 difference between the day dropped and the day added. My scenario has a +11 dropped and a +8 added.

Moving on to 10/15 (last day that the +16 is in the sample), the overall result drops from +9 to +7. A -2 change in the 3 day average requires a net change of -6. My scenario drops an O+3 and replace it with an O-3 (which again appears to be an outlier and one that stays in the tracker for 3 days.

Moving on to 10/16 (first day after debate and bye bye to +16 sample). The tracker ticks down from O+7 to O+6 which means a net change of -3 for the daily sample replacement. So the O+16 is replaced with an O+13. Eventhough the three day average went down by one for Obama, the daily sample actually went up by 16 (Matt Drudge should learn to compute rolling averages).

Moving on to today (last day that the O-3 is included in the three day average) -- the tracker ticked up by 1 for Obama meaning a +3 net change for the daily replacement -- dropping an O+8 and replacing it with an O+11.

What will happen tomorrow? Well, the O-3 will be dropped. If we replaced it with the RCP average of 6.8 (let's round down to 6 and not an unreasonable assumption) that would be a net change of +9 which would increase the three day average to O+10. I guess will find out tomorrow.

P.S. Given that Rasmussen held constant after ticking down leads me to believe that yesterday's advantage for Obama was larger than Wednesday's. I would not be surprised by an uptick tomorrow or Sunday.

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1503er:

carl29,

I don't know. Thanks for your numbers. But I'm just telling you what Joe Biden says. Don't you get the Obama campaign emails? Is Joe Biden lying?

Kiera_Lynn,

I'm sorry but until people actually vote, I reserve to the likely voter models. Obama's ground game is, up to this point, an unproven theory.

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

political isnt grouping them ALL together. Ofcourse there are some blacks that don't like Obama.

BUT, there ARE generalizations in political discourse. Obama has consistently gotten over 90% of the AA vote in polls and during the primaries and it is more than fair to criticize a poll for having what most models would show as a discrepancy. If a poll came out showing Obama winning the 65+ vote by 20%, for example, you would be accurate to point that out and criticize it.

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rosh400:

These rolling average foundation of the tracking polls leads to some strange oscillations at times. The Gallup Tracking Poll released on 10/12 showed O+3. The release on 10/13 showed O+6. To yield a net +3 overnight, the difference between the day dropped and the day added must have been +9 (9/3 =+3). I don't have access to the daily samples but according to my spreadsheet, one scenario is that a +7 was dropped and replaced by a +16, which is very likely an outlier. Nevertheless, the +16 is part of the sample for 3 days.
Moving on to 10/14, there was a one point click down to O+9 -- meaning a +3 difference between the day dropped and the day added. My scenario has a +11 dropped and a +8 added.

Moving on to 10/15 (last day that the +16 is in the sample), the overall result drops from +9 to +7. A -2 change in the 3 day average requires a net change of -6. My scenario drops an O+3 and replace it with an O-3 (which again appears to be an outlier and one that stays in the tracker for 3 days.

Moving on to 10/16 (first day after debate and bye bye to +16 sample). The tracker ticks down from O+7 to O+6 which means a net change of -3 for the daily sample replacement. So the O+16 is replaced with an O+13. Eventhough the three day average went down by one for Obama, the daily sample actually went up by 16 (Matt Drudge should learn to compute rolling averages).

Moving on to today (last day that the O-3 is included in the three day average) -- the tracker ticked up by 1 for Obama meaning a +3 net change for the daily replacement -- dropping an O+8 and replacing it with an O+11.

What will happen tomorrow? Well, the O-3 will be dropped. If we replaced it with the RCP average of 6.8 (let's round down to 6 and not an unreasonable assumption) that would be a net change of +9 which would increase the three day average to O+10. I guess will find out tomorrow.

P.S. Given that Rasmussen held constant after ticking down leads me to believe that yesterday's advantage for Obama was larger than Wednesday's. I would not be surprised by an uptick tomorrow or Sunday.

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joethedummer:

boomcrack cant even lie to itself anymore!

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johncoz:

Gallup LV models

Pollster and 538 are using the new model. RCP is averaging new and traditional. No one (apart from Drudge and NRO) is referencing traditional only.

As it turns out both models imply a higher than realistic turnout (60-66%), which obviously means not all "likely voters" will be actual voters. The $64 question is: will repubs or dems be more likely to fall off?

No one has/can have an answer to that question at the moment, but it would be fair to say that there is fairly strong consensus that the traditional model creates an artificial GOP lean in this election (see Mark Blumenthal's aricle on this site for further discussion).

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mysticlaker:

Who wants some news:

North Dakota confirmed in play.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/17/134335/23/442/633159

O: 45
M: 45

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orange24:

TIPP - Most accurate poll from 2004, right boom?

October 17 40.6% 45.9% 13.5% +5.3 Obama
October 16 41.6% 45.2% 13.2% +3.6 Obama
October 15 41.9% 45.2% 12.9% +3.3 Obama
October 14 41.9% 44.8% 13.3% +3.0 Obama
October 13 42.7% 44.8% 12.5% +2.1 Obama

Steady gains every day including almost 2 points today (there's the debate bump you've been looking for). I suppose you're off this pollsters bandwagon now? After all, your favorite whipping poll - kos - actually showed numbers you liked, so now that's the most accurate one from 2004 - right?

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rosh400:

I found a bizarre typo -- sorry. Here is my comment with the fix.

These rolling average foundation of the tracking polls leads to some strange oscillations at times. The Gallup Tracking Poll released on 10/12 showed O+7. The release on 10/13 showed O+10. To yield a net +3 overnight, the difference between the day dropped and the day added must have been +9 (9/3 =+3). I don't have access to the daily samples but according to my spreadsheet, one scenario is that a +7 was dropped and replaced by a +16, which is very likely an outlier. Nevertheless, the +16 is part of the sample for 3 days.
Moving on to 10/14, there was a one point click down to O+9 -- meaning a +3 difference between the day dropped and the day added. My scenario has a +11 dropped and a +8 added.

Moving on to 10/15 (last day that the +16 is in the sample), the overall result drops from +9 to +7. A -2 change in the 3 day average requires a net change of -6. My scenario drops an O+3 and replace it with an O-3 (which again appears to be an outlier and one that stays in the tracker for 3 days.

Moving on to 10/16 (first day after debate and bye bye to +16 sample). The tracker ticks down from O+7 to O+6 which means a net change of -3 for the daily sample replacement. So the O+16 is replaced with an O+13. Eventhough the three day average went down by one for Obama, the daily sample actually went up by 16 (Matt Drudge should learn to compute rolling averages).

Moving on to today (last day that the O-3 is included in the three day average) -- the tracker ticked up by 1 for Obama meaning a +3 net change for the daily replacement -- dropping an O+8 and replacing it with an O+11.

What will happen tomorrow? Well, the O-3 will be dropped. If we replaced it with the RCP average of 6.8 (let's round down to 6 and not an unreasonable assumption) that would be a net change of +9 which would increase the three day average to O+10. I guess will find out tomorrow.

P.S. Given that Rasmussen held constant after ticking down leads me to believe that yesterday's advantage for Obama was larger than Wednesday's. I would not be surprised by an uptick tomorrow or Sunday.

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muckinello:

Guys, each of us have to work for this election. However, I am more and more impressed by Obama and his campaign organization. These are some cool dudes! Everyone was panicking after the rep convention, everyone to tell him to be more agressive. Have you seen? During the debates he was calm and assertive. Everyone said it was a mistake to tell McCain he was right so many times during the first debate. Result: indipendents jump on Obama;s ticket because they have seen him presidential.
This guys don't do many mistakes. I am truly impressed by their organization.
Meanshile, McCain is jumping on subject after subject to change the race.
This Obama is a cool fella, it will be great as our president!

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carl29:

1503er,

Joe Biden is rallying the troops!!!! The whole point of an election is T-U-R-N-O-U-T and you can't let your supporters think that his or her vote won't make the difference. At this moment is about bringing out your people, what best way to do it than to scare them about losing?

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kerrchdavis:

Can we get boomshak in here to please explain to us how McCain is surging when his most accurate pollster has Obama's lead increasing?

please boom, explain. ANd while you're at it, show us McCains path to 270.

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1503er:

60-60% turnout? LOL!

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1503er:

60-66% turnout? LOL!

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Batony:

The pollsters are really in a pickle this year, but here is something we don't hear about. The Palin Effect:

"Michele Pelfrey, of New Carlisle, said Palin is the "breath of fresh air" she needed to excite her, and that the Alaska governor reminds her of herself.

"I'm 46 years old and I just re-registered (to vote) for the first time in about 20 years because of her, because I identify with her," she said.

In the past 20 years, she "didn't care about it. I really wasn't interested in (politics)."

Diane Mason of Dayton, who was with Pelfrey, also identifies with Palin.

'She's got me wound up," she said. "As wound up as I could get."

This is where I think Palin pays off in those Red States that McCain needs to win. Another crowd of 10,000 to 12,000 in Ohio today, 25,000 expected in Ind....that cannot be discounted. That's why it absolutely ludicrous for her to be in Pa again tomorrow...unless they have great "internals".

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1503er:

carl29,

By lying? Is Joe Biden lying? His email specifically says that Al Gore had a double-digit lead in October 2000.

I'm so glad that I live in CA where I can cast my vote for a liberal 3rd party candidate. Democrats and Republicans are basically the same thing. I'll take the lesser of two evils and have Obama though. But my guess is he has a less then 50% chance of winning at this point. You all seem to forget that the GOP has an excellent GOTV program that has beaten the Democrats many, many times. Why would this year suddenly be that the GOP has no solid GOTV program?

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Kiera_Lynn:

Hey PortlandRocks, easy on the caps darling. I wasn't calling out ACORN, I know that they flag all the Mickey Mouse and Captain American registrations before they forward them to the local BOE. I was merely stating that we are actually delivering votes. Yes 1503er I said votes. I'm in Ohio, we started voting weeks ago, a good 15% of the Ohio ballots are already cast. We even had a week where people could register and vote at the same place on the same day. So traditional likely voter models, at least in Cleveland, Ohio, go back out the window.

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DTM:

Likely voter models almost always overestimate actual turnout. Basically, the problem is that some people who really believe they are going to vote, including some people with a history of voting in the past, end up not making it to the polls for one reason or another. But since there is no way in advance of knowing who those people will be, they remain in the likely voter pools.

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kerrchdavis:

For every person that Palin has excited to vote for her, she has at least one that is now convinced to vote against her. She is pretty much the personification of "partisanship."

Some of us don't want to charge 17 year old rape victims $1200 for rape kits. Some of us don't want to increase the chances that rapists get away with it.

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1503er:

Batony,

I agree. And I think she's having an affect on white middle-aged men like Joe the Plumber from the debate who hasn't ever voted or hasn't voted in a long time. Those low IQ men think she's hot and she's got them all fired up about it. I think the pollsters are ignoring this.

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muckinello:

Last week "poll of polls" of RCP (does not include R2k/Kos)
Sa 7.6
Su 7.0
Mo 7.2
Tu 8.2
We 7.3
Th 6.8
Fr 7.0 (I tool the liberty to adjust this with the last Tipp numbers)
Surge you say?
The average for the week is 7.3 with a mini-surge mid week (results of 2nd debate??).
Obama is .3% below his average advantage. A WHOPPING surge by McCain!

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carl29:

Batony,

I think that the Palin Effect as a + or - will only be known on election day. My opinion is that it will be a net - , but we'll see. I've said it before, no matter if my guy loses or wins I will be here, so we can talk about how things turned out. My bet about the "Palin effect" is that it will be a drag for McCain :-)

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johncoz:

@1503er:
"60-60% turnout? LOL!"

Can't you read?

As it turns out both models imply a higher than realistic turnout (60-66%), which obviously means not all "likely voters" will be actual voters. The $64 question is: will repubs or dems be more likely to fall off?

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muckinello:

Palin is turning off at least as many voters that she turns on. Women moved steadily towards Obama after they got to know Palin.
She achieved almost complete unity for the Hillary supporters.. they are all backing Obama now.. except wacko Rotschield!

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1503er:

kerrchdavis,

But you were already going to vote weren't you?

I think Batony and I know myself are talking about people who were NOT going to vote and now are because of Palin. I believe there's probably some of that on Obama's side as well, but we'll see if its enough to cancel out the Palin vote.

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boomshak:

NONSENSE FROM FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM

Many of you probably know there is a webiste run by a fire-breathing Obama partisan that does poll analysis. Here is a brief blurb showing how deluded this man is:

"On the other hand, it appears to me from analyzing the cross-tabs in the Rasmussen debate poll, that Obama had quite a strong day in Rasmussen's tracking yesterday, winning the daily sample by 9-10 points. If I'm right, then Obama's number in the Rasmussen poll is liable to improve over the weekend."

So what he is saying is that because Obama "won" the debate, therefore he must have polled 9-10 points ahead of McCain yesterday.

Huh? This make NO SENSE at all since today's 3-day moving average SURELY would have moved from O+4 had Obama polled 9-10 points ahead of McCain on Thursday.

For all the hype this guy gets, he seems like an idiot to me.

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Stonecreek:

@ rosh400

Thanks for your analysis of the daily trackers. It has been clear to me for a while that the individual days often miss by -- guess what -- about the MARGIN OF ERROR! People seem to think that the three-day rolling average removes this MOE, but it only mitigates it to a degree. Movements of more than a point from day to day are always much less the result of events or trends than they are simply a result of MOE.

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DTM:

@Batony

Well, there was plenty of reporting on Palin's initial positive reception. But since then, her standing with voters has plummeted, particularly among non-Republicans. So, at this point the "Palin Effect" could well be a net negative (meaning she is inspiring more people to vote for Obama than for McCain).

@1503er

The GOP still has its GOTV operation. What is different is that Obama has built an entirely new GOTV operation for the Democrats, one based on very different principles and far larger in scale.

And again, this is not entirely theoretical--Obama began building this operation for the Democratic primaries, and the observed results were unprecedented levels of participation (and an Obama victory).

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faithhopelove:

9 national trackers have been released today, all of them showing Obama ahead, with leads ranging from 2 to 10 points.

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1503er:

johncoz,

Yes I can read. That's why I laughed at the likely voter models. I wasn't laughing at the poster's comments. I was agreeing with with him/her.

I can read. But can you interpret?

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

why don't you ask the rest of us here who seems like an idiot?

btw, please explain to us how McCain is surging when your most accurate pollster has Obama's lead growing and the RCP averages have barely changed?

Also, please explain to us how McCain is surging is Obama's leads are growing in red swing states like Missouri?

Also, please explain to us how McCain is surging when Obama is still winning swing states like VA by 8 points on AVERAGE?

Also, please explain to us how McCain wins the election when he is losing every major swing state and appears to be making up absolutely no ground?

Also, explain to us why you are always wrong about everything?

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johncoz:

@boom

You really do set yourself up for falls. If Ras improves for Obama over the weekend, who will look like an idiot? Unlike some, Nate doesn't let his politics interfere with his intellect.

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jonny87:

ND is definetly in play, but 3 EV are not really any use.

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orange24:

For all the hype this guy gets, he seems like an idiot to me.

Shocking. Don't like something somebody says, and they're an idiot.

PS - How about that TIPP Poll?

____________________

DTM:

I also think people really just have a problem understanding how rolling averages work, specifically by consistently forgetting that a change is caused by the difference between the day that rolls off and the new day, not between the new day and the day before it.

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carl29:

jonny87,

I think that I heard that Obama will air some ads in ND.

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jonny87:

ND is definetly in play, but 3 EV are not really any use.

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1503er:

DTM,

So then why didn't Obama win OH or PA?

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jonny87:

carl29,

ignore the double post.

if theyve got more money than they know what to do with then they might aswell hit everywhere.

but kerry+IA+CO+ND is 267, so if money is an issue it would be better spent elsewhere.

good to see gallup not tighten

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VonnegutIce9:

The undecideds are solidifying, my guess is that Obama will peak at +53 and by election day will be at +52-51, McCain might get to +46-47, Barr and Nader will pick up the scraps, Barr more than Nader.

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johncoz:

@1503er:
"johncoz,
"I wasn't laughing at the poster's comments. I was agreeing with with him/her. I can read."

Perhaps not very well, then; the poster was me.

As for interpretation, I post a summary, graph and analysis each morning. Judge for yourself.

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jonny87:

VonnegutIce9,

id be shocked(and pleased) if obama made it to 53

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1503er:

What about Ron Paul in MT?

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1503er:

johncoz,

I was talking about interpreting my post LOL! No I guess you aren't able to.

____________________

Batony:

I think the tax and spend labeling of Obama by the McCain will not be reflecting in the polling until next week. McCain has got to hammer Obama with this. 1/3 of the electorate is still undecided...yet certain pundits are calling this thing over...amazing.

All Hillary voters are not solidly behind Obama...that's just an outright lie. The majority are, but no near all. Or at least they say they are.

____________________

johncoz:

@jonny87:
"ND is definetly in play, but 3 EV are not really any use."

1. All EVs are useful
2. The more states in play, the larger the nightmare for an already over-stretched McCain campaign
3. Obama may yet end up redefining the electoral map in the way Reagan did in 1980. The implications of states such as Virginia and ND going blue are immense in the longer term game.

____________________

Bigmike:

Looking at the national trend line on this site, I find it amazing that everyone was so sure Obama won the 3rd debate.

It's not Rove's dirty tricks and no one got "swift boated." The mighty Barack got taken down by Joe the Plumber. Kind of has a David vs Goliath aura about it, don't you think?

____________________

jonny87:

Batony,

'spread the wealth' was a real slip.

____________________

carl29:

Batony,

No one can say in absolute terms that Hillary supporters are or are not behind Obama. However, most polls indicate that Obama and McCain are getting the same amount of support from their respective parties. Before it was just McCain getting high support from Republicans. Now Obama is equally getting support from Democrats.

____________________

jonny87:

johncoz,

i dont think it would be worth spending money in ND for Mccain so unlike other states stretching the map to here wont hurt him.

of course expanding the map is great, but not if it is at the expense of saturating FL, CO and VA with ads and maybe a few more staff if neccessary.

____________________

carl29:

Bigmike,

Even uncle "Scott Rasmussen" found that Obama won the debate:

47% Say Obama Won Final Debate, 33% Pick McCain as Winner

Men give the win to Obama by nine points, women by 17. While 60% of Republicans think McCain won, 76% of Democrats give the win to their candidate. Unaffiliated voters see Obama as the winner by an 11-point spread.

____________________

johncoz:

@Batony:
"1/3 of the electorate is still undecided"

Source for this information, please.

____________________

Bigmike:

I know, Barack has not really been taken down. Yet. He is still right at 50% and if he stays there it is over and he wins.

Gotta run. Have fun. Catch you later.

____________________

Bigmike:

carl29

So Obama won the debate but his support is slipping and McCain's is increasing. (Before anyone asks, my source for that info is the trend line on this very site.)

OK, I can live with that.

See ya next time.

____________________

orange24:

yet certain pundits are calling this thing over...amazing

Most are going out of their way to not say it's over. Yes, they do insinuate that it's over, I'll give you that. Why would they do that? Well, because Obama has huge leads in states that will give him 277 EV. You red posters for some reason just keep ignoring the electoral college and focusing on the popular vote. Watch the EV

____________________

carl29:

Bigmike,

I am only giving the information from the polls. However, "winning" the debate DOESN'T translate into voting for your. That's such a shortcut :-)

Actually, Obama is not slipping away; McCain is recovering the people he had been losing. Obama has stayed steady in the same 50%-49%; McCain has moved up indeed.

*Remember saying that X or Y did a good job doesn't mean that I agree with that person. :-0

____________________

carl29:

These are the 3 most "looked for" pollsters here:

TODAY:

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
*Traditional

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 45.6(+1.4)

MONDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 47.9 McCain 43.6
Gallup*, Obama 51 McCain 44

Average: Obama 49.6 McCain 44.2
*Traditional

See my point? McCain has improved his position, no doubt about it. However, Obama's hasn't changed that much. I think that McCain's dissapointed supporters are coming back home.

____________________

Batony:

@Orange24:

I am squarely focused on the electoral college; that's why I don't understand why the McCain camp is still in Pa. Co, MO, NV, FL, OH, Va, and NC are very winnable states b/c the Republican presence is still strong there. I think McCain will win NH, too much history there.

____________________

RussTC3:

African American turnout in 2004 (12%)
Bush 13
Kerry 86

This poll (10%):
McCain 22
Obama 75

So they are under sampling African Americans (and Hispanics for that matter) and over representing McCain's support among the group.

____________________

IMind:

Obama's support hasn't slipped at all... I love watching the McCain supporters chase every statistic blip in search of some sort of hope.

Every day some new poll or some new model is the "gold" standard... first it was Zogby, then it was IBD/TIPP, now it's Gallup LV-Traditional.... they're turning over every leaf in hopes of seeing something...

I'm telling you there isn't a bigger jobbed poll out there than the IBD/TIPP and if that's even moving away from McCain then well you get the picture.

____________________

s.b.:

Gallup's expanded model assumes an 82.5% voter turnout of registered voters. In 2004, a year of histrically very high voter turn out, it was 60%. It is unlikely that voter turnout will be much higher than that this year. Democrats were very motivated to come out and vote against Bush. This model over estimates turnout by at least 20%. Even the tighter screen, assumes a 76.8% turnout of those polled. Which is a better model. My money is on the one that is closer to reality, ie the traditional poll. An 82.5% voter turnout when last time, with historic turnout, it was 60% is absurd.

____________________

rosh400:

@bigmike,

look at my post concerning how rolling averages work. You would not likely see the impact of the debate based only on one day's sampling. The impact of the debate should start showing tomorrow and Sunday.

____________________

s.b.:

2004's voter turnout was the highest since 1968, which had 62% voter turnout of RV's. 2000's voter turnout was 54% of Rv's. So to say that the Gallup model that does not count past voting patterns when the last election was the third highest turnout in US history, behind 1960 at 63%, and 1968 at 62% is absurd. Obama will be lucky if voter turnout is as high as 2004. There is no way it is going to be much higher than 60%. It just isn't. Obama is ahead by 2% with a 76.8% turnout of LV's, (gallup's traditional model) What are the chances that those extra 20% of voters who aren;t going to actually vote, really mean this race is a lot closer than that? All polls that tighten the screen show obama losing points to McCain. Just a thought.

____________________

MDB1974:

@s.b.:

Where did you find those percentages?

____________________

WPBLiberal:

(Average of 6 Daily Tracking Polls)

10/10

Obama 49.9 McCain 42.3

10/17

Obama 49.9 McCain 43.3

At this rate, McCain will catch up around mid Dec.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Likely voter models are not designed to predict "turnout" numbers in any case. What they are designed to do is distinguish between pools of a sample in order to better predict what would be the voting results in the election occurred today.

LV estimates might say that one's model should include a pool of 40% of the individuals that are new registrants, plus 50% of those that state that they voted in the last Presidential election, and 80% of those that voted in the primary. [Yes that adds up to >100% b/c we are talking about the mix of the pools]. Or they might incorporate age, sex, or even party affiliation in the model.

So within that LV model might be a mix of the turnout proportions...but it wouldn't mean that a LV actually exists.

____________________

Bigmike:

No when does the nation as a whole turn light blue on this site? Compare to GA, which is light pink.

____________________

boomshak:

ZOGBY: MCCAIN SURGING POST DEBATE!

Pollster John Zogby said that while Obama's overall lead had remained relatively stable between 2 and 6 points in the 12 days since the poll started, the latest figures showed a bump for McCain following Wednesday's final presidential debate.

"Today was the first full sample post-debate and there's a clear indication that McCain is moving up," Zogby said.

He added that McCain's support among Republican voters appeared to be consolidating.


Maybe America doesn't care for Marxism after all?

Also, I am hearing from an inside source that there is OUTRAGE in OH over the SoS blatant attempt to allow voter fraud. Independent and Undecided voters there are incensed that this would be allowed to happen by a partisan Obama supporter.

Look for some serious blowback. If McCain is smart, he will pound this.

LAST POINT:
In a shoking development, Barack Obama's General Counsel has solicited the Attorneys General to appoint a Special Prosecutor to investigate any Republicans who bring up voter fraud in association with ACORN in the coming weeks as an attempt to supress voting.

They are kidding right? ACORN is neck deep in this and Obama want the AG to prohibit anyone from saying anything about it?

Police State anyone?

____________________

boomshak:

ALL MOMENTUM TO MCCAIN:

Except for the nutty Hotline Poll, all momentum is to McCain 3 weeks out.

Watch and learn as in the coming weeks, light blue states go back to toss ups and toss ups turn light red.

That business in OH is REALLY going to bit the Obama Campaign on the butt.

____________________

southern angler:

I'm a believer in "actions speak louder than words". That being said, if all the libs that post here are so convinced that Obama has this election in the bag, then why are they so deligently guarding this website in support for their guy? If its over for McMain, then why not just go back to your regular life style. I have never seen so many people obsessed for no real reason. It's kinda sad to see would-be productive people squandering their time away needlessly. In addition you are also serving
noticed to your LV that there is no need to show up to vote if indeed you are asured of victory.
Wheres the logic, if any at all?

____________________



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