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US: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Gallup-10/20-22)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/20-22/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

2,788 Registered Voters:
Obama 50, McCain 43

2,349 Likely Voters-Expanded:
Obama 51, McCain 45

2,399 Likely Voters-Traditional:
Obama 50, McCain 46

 

Comments
deeznutsrepubs:

Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062

Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74

Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102


Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska gets nowhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!

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mandalorianarmy:

Looks like Gallup and Ras are pretty much right in line now. This is where I think the election actually is right now.

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truthcomb:

PPD makes a very important observation that, perhaps, explains all the fluctuations in daily trackers.

"If there is one thing that I have found to be an absolute truism as a pollster in this year's election, it's that Barack Obama's supporters are harder to get in touch with than John McCain's and Hillary Clinton's.

It's simply a matter that you have to try more times to get his supporters on the phone."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/longer-field-periods-and-round-numbers.html

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RussTC3:

Looks like a little bit of noise in Gallup's polling this afternoon. A better Obama day probably rolled off the average.

Obama +4 to +7 vs. Obama +5 to +9 yesterday.

Obama's 7.3% average with all the tracking polls released thus far today is just slightly lower than yesterday's 7.5% average with the same polls.

NO LOSS In Obama's support--he actually went up slightly--50.5% to 50.6%--but a small gain in McCain's support helped him slightly (43.0% to 43.3%).

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mac7396:

This poll grossly undersamples the overwhelming amount of born again/evangelicals that make up 44% of the population.

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Centrist_Dem:

Gallup's usual ups and downs -- it happens so regularly, it seems to be statistical noise. Funny how they always seem to drop at this time of the week. They obviously have a different methodology than Rasmussen, who's much more stable, at least in this election (he moved around more in Oct. '04, when Bush was ahead in most polls but the race was tighter than it is now).

I actually find today's numbers more plausible than the +10 and +7 they had on their two models a couple of days ago. If you look at all the polls, about +5 seems a realistic Obama lead at the moment. Assuming the trends of the last 6 weeks continue and nothing drastic happens to upset the race, I'd expect Obama to win the national popular vote by anywhere between +2 and +5.

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Stonecreek:

Gallup and Rasputin are moving in different directions. Just shows you how dispartate LV and sampling methods produce disparate results. I'm liking the ABC-WaPO due to its being the most successful in balancing land lines with cell phones. It's showing a somewhat wider margin.

Gallup's "traditional" vs. "expanded" LV still seems very screwy when the raw number for "traditional" is larger than "expanded". How can "expanded" be smaller and still be "expanded"?

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jeepdad:

Cool. PPP hints Obama will have Suffolk-like numbers in Ohio when they release their poll this weekend. That's +9.

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PortlandRocks:

It's over.

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straight talk:

Oh it is tightening but McCain! But even Gallup won't be able to encourage McCain! Obama Gallup numbers always dips midweek, before going up again! McCain is only up by Ten in Tx? McCain needs to stay above 45%!

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bpd1069:

Conservative Movement has 12 days left before it is officially DEAD.

Perhaps in 20 years the GOP will reconstitute itself, until then, good riddance.

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boomshak:

MASSIVE SURGE FOR MCCAIN!

+4 is amazing and headed for the MOE! Obama is melting.

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political_junki:

LOL @boomshak

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truthcomb:

mac7396:

"This poll grossly undersamples the overwhelming amount of born again/evangelicals that make up 44% of the population."

LOL...

I think you missed the subtle narrative on AP/Gof*k poll. Remember Bush won in '04 courtesy of an avalanche of Evangelicals? AP is sending the not-so-subtle message that, even if you double the Evangelical turnout, Obama still wins :)

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SoloBJ:

@Centrist_Dem:
I have noticed the same pattern with Gallup.

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Mike:

Now that McCain is pulling out of Colorado, is there any way he can even win electorally? Remove the states outside of 10% and the one's his campaign has pulled out and he can't possibly get to 270.

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straight talk:

It is about state polls now! And Obama is kicking Butt and taking names right now! This race is 5%-7% according to the avg of all the polls! This has been the same for about a month! It is about who has the better GOTV team now! ANd hear Obama team is crushing the Repubs this yr on the Ground!

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Trosen:

This "traditional model" basically throws out all the new voters who have registered and the subsequent +D advantage therein, it completely ignores the # of new cell phone-only houseolds since 2004, and generally assumes people are going to vote EXACTLY THE SAME WAY THEY DID IN 2004. It's nonsense. On the flip-side, the "expanded model" is really nothing but guesswork to try to employ these new variables. but as chuck Todd and others have said, the only even fairly reliable figure to gauge where the #s really are is the registered voter #. The rest is all guesswork.

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Dan:

hahaha. boomshak. you're so silly.

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MDB1974:

Are you serious?

49v47 49v47 49v46 50v45 51v44 50v45 50v46

Melting, seems pretty stable.

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tar_heel:

I wonder sometimes whether boomshak is serious, or whether he is just trolling to get a rise out of the rest of us. If the former, I am really concerned about his mental health.

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mattn:

OK, let me get this straight:

2,349 Likely Voters-Expanded:
Obama 51, McCain 45

or Obama 1192 voters, McCain 1057

2,399 Likely Voters-Traditional:
Obama 50, McCain 46

or Obama 1200 voters, McCain 1104

So the "expanded" model removes 8 Obama voters and 47 McCain voters. Could there be anything more random than this? I would love to see the new criteria Gallup is really using. I'll bet they must have changed not only their measurement of past voting behavior, but also their measurement of current voting intention.

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mysticlaker:

Boom,

Look quick! some red on the board for McCain!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/

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Rollin08:

lol boomshak, glad to know your still on top of things. I think your right though these numbers are starting to break for McCain..

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syrac818:

Well, boomshak's last comment is clearly just trolling. I mean, at this point, what can the guy do?

I really do think he would have some value if he just cut the sh*t for a second, and gave some halfway honest insights. But, looks like he'd rather just go out as a troll. Oh well.

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Rollin08:

I think they are just on the verge of going McCain and that's what we're seeing. We're just catching the edge of it.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

boomshak is a serious American and is more patriotic than anyone else. His daily ups and downs over individual polls show what a true American needs to be. You dont look at trendlines, projections, and average....that statistical junk is for the french.

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Mike:

I think boom is the perfect surrogate for the intellectually dishonest McCain campaign.

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straight talk:

McCain is only leadin Tx by 10% McCain Camp do not assume like GA that this state will be a cake walk. Obama got 1.5mil+ votes here against Hillary and Lost in the primary! Now that the Hispanic community are behind Obama now! Tx will be close on election night! It will be the shocker of the night! McCain is a weak Repub! Only up by 10% in Tx! That is lower than the number of days left in this campain!

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political_junki:

Best part oftoday has been:
4 different polls onfirming a double digit lead for Obama: rest is redundant.
Have you noticed with NH, Obama has 272 EV in DARK BLUE?

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Thatcher:

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Arne Carlson, a former Republican governor in Minnesota, has endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

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Thatcher:

DENVER — Republicans are slashing their television advertising at Colorado's three biggest television stations, a troubling sign for presidential nominee John McCain.

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Batony:

@Truthcomb:

SSurvey USA, Rasmussen and believe it or not Zogby were pretty accurate in the Dem Primary.

I can't wait until election day...for the first time I will not be tense or nervous, I can just sit there and watch the returns.

Memo to the McCain camp...PLEASE STOP with the Joe the Plumber references! It's beyond stale now.

As far as Ohio around this time in 2004:

Strategic Vision (R) | 10/25-27 801 LV 3.0 48 47 - Bush +1
Colmbus Dispatch* | 10/20-29 2880 LV 2.0 50 50 - TIE
Survey USA| 10/23-10/25 831 LV 3.5 47 50 - Kerry +3
ARG | 10/23-10/25 600 LV 4.0 47 49 - Kerry +2
LA Times | 10/22-10/26 585 LV 4.0 44 50 - Kerry +6
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/22-24 801 LV 3.0 47 45 - Bush +2
Rasmussen | 10/20-10/26 537 LV 4.0 50 46 - Bush +4
Scripps | 10/17-10/21 358 LV 5.3 46 50 - Kerry +4
Gallup | 10/17-10/20 706 LV 3.5 47 48 1 Kerry +1
FOX News | 10/17-10/18 800 LV 3.5 49 44 - Bush +5
SurveyUSA | 10/16-10/18 698 LV 3.8 47 49 - Kerry +2

I need to apologize to Mason Dixon...they were actually pretty accurate in 2004. Does anyone actually believe Obama is up by double digits in Ohio and Indiana?

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mysticlaker:

http://www.montanasnewsstation.com/Global/story.asp?S=9227101&nav=menu227_6

Montana...

Barrack Obama 44.4%

John McCain 40.2%

Ron Paul 4.2%

Ralph Nader .7%

Bob Barr 1%

Undecided 9.5%

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Arne Carlson, never heard of her(him?). I, along with boomshak, suspect these people are being paid to endorse Obama and were never true Republicans to begin with.

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political_junki:

Best part oftoday has been:
4 different polls onfirming a double digit lead for Obama: rest is redundant.
Have you noticed with NH, Obama has 272 EV in DARK BLUE?

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jeepdad:

Don't if this has been posted yet: M 46, O 44 in GEORGIA!


http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/10/georgia-statewide-survey/

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kerrchdavis:

Georgia going blue next! :D

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jeepdad:

Wow, Montana and Georgia are both within striking distance. Unreal.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Montana poll is the shocker of the day. Ron Paul is screwing the Republicans yet again!

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zotz:

"Obama is melting."

More like boom is melting! That stuff seeping out of your ears, I think its your brains!

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straight talk:

People! Nationally these numbers are not tightnening! McCain is trying to sure up the base who is not excited about his candicy! He is havin a evangelica1 vote problem! Because he chose not to address there issues like abortion and border security! He is getting all of the Anti-Obama votes right now! People before you put your foot in your mouth! We have seen Gallup tightened up before! McCain numbers goes up, while Obama stays at 50% But it is about the states now! And right now McCain needs to go to the states where the polls show that it is not tightening like Va! FL is already tightening!

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Thatcher:

@Pro-America_Anti-America

You're joshing, right? Doesn't matter if you ever heard of him - he's the former (Republican) Governor of Minnesota.

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Thatcher:

@Pro-America_Anti-America

You're joshing, right? Doesn't matter if you ever heard of him - he's the former (Republican) Governor of Minnesota.

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mysticlaker:
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kerrchdavis:

lol!

god, I love watching boom fall apart. I'm moving my post-election party to this weekend. If Obama is leading in Montana and within 2 in Georgia this thing is over.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

I find it disheartening that boomshak flees when us real Americans are still here supporting McCain. Maybe he was a RINO after all.

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kerrchdavis:

@MN

I would like to take credit for boomshaks insanity but he was already a nutcase when I got here.

So, while I am flattered that is everyone laying this thing at MY feet, I really don;t think I could have made boomshak and alankeys much dumber than they already were.

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Batony:

Calm down everyone.

Before we get too poll happy, in 2004, just to give you some examples on this date:

Minnesota:

Rasmussen:
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%

Wisconsin:

Strategic Vision:
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%

Ohio:

Ohio Univ. Poll
Kerry 49%
Bush 43%

West Virginia:

Zogby
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%

Florida:

Insider Advantage
Kerry 46%
Bush 46%

SO everyone just relax. Normal people like everyone else in my office could care less what the polls say.

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[nemesis]:

Where's boomshak? I expect to see him all over the place with the latest junk poll from IBD/TIPP. They've decided that even though all other polls are showing movement to Obama, his support has REALLY dropped from +6 two days ago to +1.1 today. These 12 other polls are obviously wrong, as the IBD poll shows McCain closest, even though it appears that they're a bunch of crack heads.

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[nemesis]:

Where's boomshak? I expect to see him all over the place with the latest junk poll from IBD/TIPP. They've decided that even though all other polls are showing movement to Obama, his support has REALLY dropped from +6 two days ago to +1.1 today. These 12 other polls are obviously wrong, as the IBD poll shows McCain closest, even though it appears that they're a bunch of crack heads.

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straight talk:

People We are on landslide alert! Nothing has change Nationally which around 5%-7% nationally! PEOPLE WE ARE ON LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!! I know the McCain Camp is hoping for a Bradely affect, but that is not possible when Obama is getting seniors and Blue collar workin class right now! Barack Obama will be the projected winner by 9:00pm on nov. 4! Colorado seals the deal! Oh, fl, nv,Va(solid blue), MO were for fun! Obama got 270+ with Colorado. EVen if you think that the polls are all over the place! Colorado has been OBama for months now!

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

with all due respect, if you don't care what the polls say, why are you here?

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PortlandRocks:

Batony that was desperate. Polls overall looked NOTHING like they do now in 2004.

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DTM:

And that Montana poll is more confirmation that the North Dakota polls weren't crazy.

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[nemesis]:

Ok, sorry for the double post. First attempt came back with a big nasty error message, and updated versions of the page didn't show my message. I guess it decided to post it later anyways...

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PortlandRocks:

IBD/TIPP has Obama up 1 now. LOL FAIL.

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PortlandRocks:

Good point KERR. LOL All of these polls just SUCK but Batony's here making comments. LOVE IT!

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Click on my username for the referenced article.

“All I'll say is that the president stands by his policies. He also stands by John McCain,” Perino reiterated later in the press conference.

Kinda reminds me of the Abominable Snowman from the Bugs Bunny cartoons ... 'I will hug and keep him and call him George!'

Seems Bush doesn't want McCain in the WH either.

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DTM:

As I noted last time this came up, we are in interesting territory when people are going back and cherry-picking polls from 2004 to support their arguments.

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What I don't understand is this... McCain is a military man like myself... I was just reading an article about how terrible he's run his campaign and the many baseless attacks he's made on Barack Obama and the 'angry left'.

I have no idea what he learned in the military but here's what I was taught:

Loyalty / Duty / RESPECT / Selfless Service / HONOR / INTEGRITY / Personal Courage

What happened to you McCain?!

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mysticlaker:

@Batony

What is obvious that is between 2004 and 2008 is we have MUCH more data available at the state and national level. Trends are easier to for most math inclined folks to see, and cherry picking (like you just did) is much harder to do....

What's the summary:
Obama has 272 solid EV's 12 days out of election.
There are 100 + outstanding (bgs), with Obama leading in many of them.
McCain needs a huge shift both nationally (and in much more difficult situation at the state level).

As an Obama supporter, I could not be happier. I am realistic, but this information is hard to dispute.

Plus Obama has a FAR superious ground game. Not a guess, but a FACT.

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damitajo1:

The conservative movement isn't going anywhere. "Liberals" in this country pick a few issues that they can shout about without truly committing any of their own energy to changing. They like to preach about diversity, but a lot of them live in wealthy enclaves with very segregated schools -- even more segregated than in the Deep South. They are for "gay rights," but our two leading candidates opposed same-sex marriage. Obama agreed with the Scalia on gun control, but disagreed with the liberals on the death penalty. They scream about deregulation, but Democrats resisted regulating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Unfortunately, as a progressive, I have nowhere else to turn but the Democrats. But the self-righteous appeals about the end of conservatism are nauseating.

http://dissentingjustice.blogspot.com/2008/10/2008-is-not-1964-why-liberals-and.html

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zvelf:

Boomshak,

Could you please answer a couple of questions for me? First, who do you think is going to win the election?

Obama is up by an average of 6 points nationally. In states where Obama is up by 7 points or more, he already has 277 electoral votes, enough to win. McCain could take FL, MO, NC, NV, and OH, in all of which Obama is currently leading, and McCain would still lose. Second, if you think McCain will win, which states will he take to get to 270?

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political_junki:

@Batony:

None of would ever get happy or sad about a Zogby poll , believe me. But when they are from 5 different credible sources, there is room for excitement.

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PortlandRocks:

damitajo1 denial!

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Batony

I think you meant people in your office couldn't care less. But I dunno maybe you meant they could care less?

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boomshak:

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven
Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008

Obama 45, McCain 44

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

Wow, just wow!

Like I said yesterday, 3 national polls within the MOE! (and yes, GWU is 44/42).

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political_junki:

@Portland:
Have you noticed in IBD/TIPP McSame is leading Obama 74-22!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! amount voters younger than 24?
I mean 74% of youngsters are voting for McSame, 22% vote for Obama. Very realistic :)))

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MichaelJason:


McCain Cuts Ads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire
In another sign that Sen. John McCain is on the defensive, TPM reports the McCain campaign "is shifting its ad money out of blue tossup states and into red tossups and even traditionally red states."

McCain dramatically slashed ad spending in Wisconsin and New Hampshire and reduced it in Pennsylvania -- all states that went Democratic four years ago. He's also reduced spending in Colorado, a state that voted for Bush, "suggesting he may be losing hope there, too."

In contrast, McCain has increased his ad spending in two red states, Virginia and Florida.

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PortlandRocks:

Boom and the other 15 National polls show a blow out. Let's once again play WHO's THE OUTLIER!:)

I guess RAS is a **** pollster now Boom?

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TuftsPat:

What other polls are left for today?

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political_junki:

@MichaelJason:
Could you link to source?

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boomshak:

Gallup (Traditional)* 10/20 - 10/22 2384 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4
IBD/TIPP 10/18 - 10/22 1088 LV 3.0 45 44 Obama +1
GWU/Battleground 10/16 - 10/22 1000 LV 3.1 44 42 Obama +2
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1

Obama better start being afraid.

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[nemesis]:

HAHA, I SOOOOOO called it. boomshak jumped all over the absolute crap poll. Not only this, but he insists on misquoting polls, and his "facts" are not even accurate. What a hack.

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political_junki:

BOOM:
1-You also said RASS will shrink.
2- GWU is +4 not +2
------------------------------------------------
3-Have you noticed in IBD/TIPP McSame is leading Obama 74-22!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! amount voters younger than 24?
I mean 74% of youngsters are voting for McSame, 22% vote for Obama. Very realistic :)))

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mysticlaker:

I think that the poll folks should not include tipp...It's flawed. It's obvious. Just because someone puts something out there, doesn't mean it is done with any science. It's a disgrace really. Whether Obama is up by 30 or McCain is up by 30 it's crap.

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mac7396:

Ok, this is getting old.

Let's move on. Who will the repubs run against President Obama in '12? Romney? Palin (lol)? Jindal?

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak why did you only list 3 polls? Why not the other 15 or so?

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boomshak:

@[nemesis]:

HAHA, I SOOOOOO called it. boomshak jumped all over the absolute crap poll. Not only this, but he insists on misquoting polls, and his "facts" are not even accurate. What a hack.

Do me a favor and tell me what the MOST ACCURATE poll was in 2004.

I'll help you, TIPP.

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MichaelJason:

Political_junki:

Here ya go.. the headline was on politicalwire.com.. they got the story from TPM.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/big_picture_mccain_shifting_hi.php

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

Obama is so terrified that he's campaigning in Indiana.

lol!

Next week, he'll be giving speeches in Utah at this rate.

landslide baby landslide

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political_junki:

Somebody explain:
In IBD/TIPP McSame is leading Obama 74-22!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! amount voters younger than 24?
I mean 74% of youngsters are voting for McSame, 22% vote for Obama.

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JCK:

Ha. Boom has to lie outright about poll results.


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[nemesis]:

OK boomshak, now for a dose of reality.

Gallup +6
IBD +1 (absolute crap poll)
GWU +4 (not +2 you complete idiot)
AP +1 (because we all believe 44% of the country are evangelical voters)

How about:

RAS +7
Zogby +12
Hotline +5
FOX News +9
ABC +11
NBC +10
Ipsos +8
Pew +14

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thoughtful:

@ Player, Stillow,Boskop, Undecided/Kiptin, Boomer, Observer and lots of other fellow friends and Americans of different views and those other liberals and others on the site,

2 weeks to go: much to be decided. I get to China and the first poll I see and McCain is just 2 behind, (on my private and personal internals he is 12 behind!) a few hours later the British Pound of which I am holding long falls another 5% (20%) in total against the US dollar. Ok I have lost about 25% of wealth in Chinese terms since January 1! I am wealthy "middle class" and have made more than $250K since 1977!

We all have our anecdotes, and we all have the good fortunes of being Americans.

boomshak has entertained us all and there is 2 weeks to go.

The mostr striking thing in this election that I had was with Stillow, OK she is right wing but she is just as anxious to prolong the American dream as I am and Barrack Obama examplifies. She supports McCain, if you didn't know. From Nevada, so she and Boom are both in denial - maybe 2 weeks to go.

But this is Another most important election in our lifetime.

It looks like our great nation, yes Marctx from the right and Zotz from the left, our country is going to elect a genuine African American and there is irony in that for our black community, to the highest office in the land. I want you all to think about the inverse racism Obama has had to over come as well. F-O Jesse, if he costs F-ing Florida.

I appeal to all of you left, right centrist to support Obama, give him a chance and spread the word.

What I do know is that we all have to pull together as a nation to overcome the challenges ahead.

God Bless you all and God Bless the United States of America.

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political_junki:

Thanx MichaelJason.

BOOM: It seems McSame is pulling out of PA. What happened to INTERNAL polls? LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

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kerrchdavis:

@political

TIPP is a joke. Don't even bother looking at it. Polls are never the MOST accurate election after election. The fact that TIPP got it right in 2004 pretty much guarantees they WONT be the most accurate this year.

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boomshak:

@political_junki:

BOOM:
1-You also said RASS will shrink.
2- GWU is +4 not +2

God I am getting SICK of saying this. GWU is +2. RCP just chooses to use the 12th set of numbers in their poll. The top line # is 44/42 on the pollsters site. Why would they put their best numbers 12th and their worst numbers first?

Look at http://www.tarrance.com/files/10.23-Presentation-graphics.pdf

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straight talk:

Gwu/Battleground has Obama up 4% 49-45! Secondly watch Ap, and IBD go up as the race stablilizes at around 5-7%. Obama is at 50% of his votes! Heck even McCain is at around 45%. That is too many undecideds in these polls.

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Northeastern Republican:

i dont think its worth discrediting this poll entirely. IBD was most on target in 2004 so they should be given some street cred, despite the fact that there under 24 numbers seem off.

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MichaelJason:

That IBD poll has McCain winning young voters 74 to 22. What a joke! They are trying to demoralize Obama supporters. Investor's Business Daily was rated the 2nd most consertative news website next to Wall Street Journal. Their sampling is also 46% Evangelicals, no Jewish voters, and 1% African American, LOL.

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PortlandRocks:

It's time for NAME THAT OUTLIER. Can you play too BOOM?

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/22 -- -- 50.0 42.9 Obama +7.1

Rasmussen Reports 10/20 - 10/22 3000 LV 2.0 52 45 Obama +7
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/20 - 10/22 2384 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/20 - 10/22 2299 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/20 - 10/22 1208 LV 2.9 52 40 Obama +12
Hotline/FD 10/20 - 10/22 769 LV 3.5 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
IBD/TIPP 10/18 - 10/22 1088 LV 3.0 45 44 Obama +1
GWU/Battleground 10/16 - 10/22 1000 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4
ABC News/Wash Post 10/18 - 10/21 1330 LV 2.5 54 43 Obama +11
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14

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Batony:

@mysticlaker:

12 days is such a long time. And lucky for McCain, his supporters, at least here in Virginia look at the polls as part of the liberal bias.

As far as Obama's ground game goes, not saying I don't doubt it's powerful, but doggone on it I heard the same thing with Kerry in '04.

And someone said McCain was pulling out of Colorado...that's not accurate. As a matter the RNC is focused soley on Co, Va, Pa, MO, NC and NV.

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cinnamonape:

Hmmm! This is getting really very odd! Theoretically one could walk from San Diego in the West, up the Pacific Coast, across the Rockies [Except for a little snippet of red Idaho] and Great Plains, to the Northeast, and then down the East Coast through the piedmont all the way to Florida...and not leave an "Obama" state.

There could even be large chunks of Blue (Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico and Colorado) in that red central core left over.

Blue Dreamin'!

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kerrchdavis:

@portland

oooh ooooh! Is it the TIPP and AP poll? Are those possibly the outliers???

____________________

boomshak:

INTERESTING FACT ABOUT GALLUP:

Did you know that Gallup's "expanded likely" model assumes a 2/3 turnout of all RV's? Sorry, but it was only 54% in 2004 and that was a huge turnout.

Even his "traditional" LV assumes 60% turnout.

____________________

JCK:

Batony,

Kerry supporters kept arguing in 2004 that pollsters were missing Cell phone only voters who were going to give Kerry 2% percentage points over what the polls were showing. Obviously, the polls were right, and Kerry lost.

Now, Republicans are convinced that the same pollsters, four years later, are biased against them. Whatever helps you sleep at night, I suppose.

____________________

political_junki:

Batony:
How do you get Oxygen down there?
I mean your head in the sand?
Do you have an oxygen tank?

____________________

southern angler:


Dear Dems,
Please do not read this link. I want to you continue life in your current state of complacency. Actually I just hate to see grow-ups cry.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536

____________________

mysticlaker:

NR...

Your right. It has some value in keeping those who want to be delusional, delusional.

And it will be used to keep democrats motivated. You are right.

Let's keep it up!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

IBD poll 46% Evangelicals, no Jewish voters, and 1% African. I WILL GLADLY TAKE THE 1% OBAMA LEAD! ROFL

____________________

Thatcher:

INTERESTING FACT ABOUT BOOMSHAK

He lives in a world of his own creation where up is down, surging is retreating and every day he makes new friends, turns against them the next day, then befriends them the day (ad nauseam)

____________________

SoloBJ:

Some of these national polls are all over the place again. You have the ones that go from 1-7-1 points in a matter of 3-4 days. It's silly.

I suspect most of these polls will begin to reflect a more accurate and stable outlook in the last few days leading up to election day so as to not look like the "least accurate poll in 2008"

____________________

[nemesis]:

This seems pretty normal... boom gets completely shot down so he ignores it and changes the subject.

____________________

mac7396:

"Their sampling is also 46% Evangelicals, no Jewish voters, and 1% African American, LOL."

IBD/TIPP got it right. Is there really any reason to believe that more than 1% of AAs will vote. I think all those record breaking early voting numbers are noise.

____________________

boomshak:

OBOZONAUTS:

Feel it slippin away...

____________________

Stonecreek:

That Montana poll looks like a respectable poll, however it does have an extremely small sample and it doesn't reveal anything about what it uses as an LV screen. But it confirms what many have suspected: Montana is in play.

____________________

paradski:

Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby 10/20-22/08 1206 LV 40 52 +12D
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 10/20-22/08 1100 LV 41 51 +10D
Diageo/Hotline 10/20-22/08 769 LV 43 48 +5D
Rasmussen 10/20-22/08 3000 LV 45 52 +7D
Big Ten 10/19-22/08 1014 LV 43 52 +9D
Gallup 10/20-22/08 2331 LV 45 51 +6D
FOX 10/20-21/08 936 LV 40 49 +9D

MCCAIN=TOAST

____________________

MisterMagoo:

Boomshak admitted it was over for McCain weeks ago but he surely has a sharp irony and a lot of fun with you, guys ! I think that, today, even McCain doesn't believe in his own victory.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

This is my OWN opinion but I will most trust the polls with the largest sample. RAS and Gallop. I believe ABC's tracker has a huge sample also.

____________________

MichaelJason:

lol@PortlandRocks.

My FAVORITE part of the discredited IBD poll is 74 to 26 for McCain with 18 to 24 year olds? What the HELL?

____________________

political_junki:

@boom:
Yeah, we are really freaked out :)))
You are pathetic.

____________________

Batony:

That TPM article says nothing about McCain pulling out of Pa, NH or WI. I mean you guys are bad...lol. Like I said earlier, the RNC is completely focused on the Red States, plus PA.

McCain is not conceding PA. The new surveyusa had Obama at 53, McCain at 41...but

"Key findings: "Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 9 days ago, McCain is up 1, Obama is down 2. There is movement to McCain among white voters, where McCain had been down 7, today is down 3."

____________________

kerrchdavis:

God, I can't get over the state polls today. Landslide baby Landslide!

____________________

Kile Thomson:

"Their sampling is also 46% Evangelicals, no Jewish voters, and 1% African American, LOL."

ROFL

____________________

Mike:

SUSA:
Penn O+12
KANSAS M+12

Accd to this, O has as much a chance to flip KS as McCain has to flip Penn.

____________________

mysticlaker:

The best part of IBD (which I can't help but think stands for intenstial bowel disease, a condition I unfortuately suffer from, but makes me laugh in this context)

Cross-post:

IBD/TIPP internals where Obama is up 1:

High School/No college Obama +5
College graduate Obama +6

Some college/no graduate McCain +12

So, McCain's big advantage is among the giant group of some college/no graduate voters! What a stupid poll

____________________

TuftsPat:

@PortlandRocks:

"IBD poll 46% Evangelicals, no Jewish voters, and 1% African. I WILL GLADLY TAKE THE 1% OBAMA LEAD! ROFL"

Africans are allowed to vote? No wonder Biden is campaigning in Lesotho tomorrow. :)

____________________

political_junki:

Batony:
Sorry but I cant help repeating:
How do you get Oxygen down there?
I mean your head in the sand?
Do you have an oxygen tank?

Also kerrchdavis:
Have you noticed Obama is winning by 5% in IBD poll but still winning only 1 in total?
They have more R and D!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak gosh you are right. I'm feeling the slippish up 10 in THREE consecutive Ohio polls. Up 5 in another. Slip slidin' away we are!

____________________

DTM:

Turnout of registered voters was over 70% in 2004. It was just over 60% of all citizens of voting age.

____________________

political_junki:

Also kerrchdavis:
Have you noticed Obama is winning by 5% in IBD poll ***among independents*** but still winning only 1 in total?
They have more R and D!

____________________

MDB1974:

New TIPP poll has O+1 nationally. What's up with that? Anyone know anything about these guys?

____________________

mysticlaker:

Also, the only religion Obama leads in are:

Jewish
Other
None

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536#polla

____________________

boomshak:

Don't forget the MASSIVE OBAMA SCANDAL that's about to break.

Hint: It has to do with campaign contributions and could get Obama impeached if he wins.

____________________

mac7396:

Here's another IDB/TIPP fun fact:
Dems 84-8 O
Repubs 5-86 O
Independent 44-39 O

So, we are to believe that the +76 Dems voting Obama and +5 Independent voting Obama is cancelled out by +81 republicans voting McCain. In essence, # Repub Voters = # Dem Voters + # Independent Voters. Not.

____________________

boomshak:

Ok, I can't wait any longer. Here's the story:

http://ace.mu.nu/

Obama Campaign Finance Fraud Gains Traction

____________________

mysticlaker:

@MDB1974

The poll is a piece of ****. Look at the breakdowns here.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536#polla

The main problem is obvious when looking at the geographic breakdown. They are oversampling the South and loving it...

____________________

RussTC3:

LOL, IBD/TIPP has Obama down by 54 points among Adults 18-24!

Some of the other cross tabs are equally hilarious, but that one takes the cake. Who knows how far off the rest of their results are if they can make such an enormous mistake with one of the demo groups, which, by the way, is the easiest to peg.

Actually, if you look back at some of their past results for this tracking poll, they've tinkered with a whole bunch of their internals.

____________________

ErnieLynch:

LOL Boom****e, who controls congress? The pelicans?

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
1-Obama will win2
2- We have majority in both houses, he can sleep with all the white house interns, make Ayres secretary of defense and Rezko chair of the feds and not get impeached :))))))))))

AND WE WILL HAVE A LIBERAL SUPREME COURT

BOOM: DEAL WITH IT

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Batony sit on it homo. (I'm gay I can say that.) I read a study yesterday that said in order for McCain to win PA he would need to take 25% of Dems. That's realistic!:)

____________________

Batony:

Why does my head have to be in the sand?? lol I am just trying to be the voice of reason.

The only thing I would add to the polls is too bad the election is 12 days away.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@major scandal

ROFLMAO!!! is this supposed to be a joke?

____________________

Boomshak is like Joe the Plumber, he's a figment of his own imagination.

____________________

hou04:

We should email TIPP (email address is at tipponline.com , under Contact Us... and point out all these laughable stats they put in their poll.

____________________

Ryguy:

boom, just promise to be here on nov. 5th please. thats all i ask. scream all you want about the election slipping away, and about how all of us obamazamalamanuts are freaking out right now, reserving our space on the tallest building to jump off. keep telling us which poll we need to be worried about, and then turning your back on that poll when it doesnt say what you want it to say (like most of them dont). keep making prediction after prediction and then laughing like a super villain... and then when your predictions are once again wrong, fail to show up to the message boards until you find a new poll that gives you a reason to show up. keep doing all of it. just as long as you are here on nov. 5th to take it like a man. take it like a man? wait its you...

how about it buddy boom, will you promise to be here on the 5th?

____________________

cinnamonape:

"McCain dramatically slashed ad spending in Wisconsin and New Hampshire and reduced it in Pennsylvania"

Well Wisconsin was over a long time ago. If true, that would suggest that they recognize the "Pennsylvania strategy" has failed. If they are retreating into Florida and Virginia they are going to have to shift from "Joe the Plumber" to perhaps more "Southern" memes. Or maybe McCain is going to wrap himself in the flag near military bases.

It's not really clear if THEY know what they are doing anymore. They spend millions in one state and then they flee...then squander more. Well, it's just the taxpayers money...so who cares.


____________________

political_junki:

Batony:
I am just trying to be the voice of reason.
McCain not pulling out of PA is realistic?
With 5 different, independent polls showin hom behind more than 10?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Ernie

"LOL Boom****e, who controls congress? The pelicans?"

roflmao!!! :D

"

@BOOM:
1-Obama will win2
2- We have majority in both houses, he can sleep with all the white house interns, make Ayres secretary of defense and Rezko chair of the feds and not get impeached :))))))))))

AND WE WILL HAVE A LIBERAL SUPREME COURT

BOOM: DEAL WITH IT"

HAHAHA :P

____________________

PortlandRocks:

BOOM! Obama was down 23 last time Survey USA polled Kansas. Today down 12. An 11 point Obama swing. BOOM? WHATS THE MATTER WITH KANSAS?

____________________

Stonecreek:

Boom, don't you ever get embarassed about how wrong your posts are? I'm not talking about your "opinion" posts. As they say, you're entitled to your opinion, no matter how wacky it may be. I mean your "fact" posts: The percentage turnout in 2004 you quote at 54% is the percentage of ELIGIBLE VOTER POPULATION (EVP), not REGISTERED VOTERS.

Sometimes called "Voting Age Population", not all persons who are eligible to register do register. Got that? Agreed? Thus while 2008 turnout may be projected at 60% or so of EVP, that translates a significantly higher percentage of RV's. Got that? Agreed?

Thus your hypothesis that Gallup (or anyone else) is way overstating actual voter numbers in their LV projections is, by definition, just plain wrong when predicated on your erroeous assumptions. Got that? Agreed?

There was a lengthy discussion of the differences in EVP, RV, and LV on this site a couple of days ago in Mark's column. Got that? Agreed? Dumbass.

____________________

socalerdoc:

repubs are in denial phase...next phase is anger

____________________

mysticlaker:

I think Boom is serious. It's pretty weird that he takes this stuff seriously.

Boom, you need some help man.

____________________

Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:
____________________

PortlandRocks:

cinnamonape maybe "Billy Joe the plumber?"

____________________

BridgeportJoe:

I note that if you assign a plausible voting pattern to the 18-29 voters (60-30, say), and assume the same numbers vote in 2008 as in 2004 (17%), you would see McCain's share of the vote decrease 7.5% and Obama's increase by 6.5%. Which would make this a 51-37 Obama lead.

I repeat: If you assume that 18-29 voters make up the same 17% of the voters that they did in 2004, and they vote 60-30 in favor of Obama, then Obama is winning by 14 points according to the IBD/TIPP poll.

Maybe TIPP should stop sampling young voters by exclusively dialing dorm extensions at Baylor, Liberty University and Oral Roberts.

____________________

Boomshak that's a terrible link you put up. Anyone site that wants to call Obama a 'cocksucker' is outrageous to me. I know you're a Republican but you should be ashamed of that, yet you seem not to be.

____________

Loyalty / Duty / RESPECT / Self Service / HONOR / INTEGRITY / Personal Courage

____________________

AB:

Serious enthusiasm gap.
In North Carolina early voting started on October 16th.
Through one pm today
736,701 early voters
438,315 dems (59.50%)
174733 repubs (23.72%)
231,744 AA (31.46%) AA voter registration is @ 22% in NC
Additionally 89,372 voters by absentee ballot (49,336 repubs 55.20%); 4053 military voters, 1915 overseas voters.
Registration numbers in NC are
6,196,102 total
2,827,141 dems (45.63%)
1,986,920 repubs (32.07%)
1,378,985 ind (22.26%)
All these numbers are publicly available now at www.sboe.nc.us.gov

____________________

Mike:

Wow, that IBD poll is brutal. McCain winning 75% of 18-24s? Hilarious.

____________________

MichaelJason:

Hi Five PortlandRocks! I've got you beat! Gay AND Jewish LOL

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Well I think they're at anger now. They're basically feeding on themselves (RINO designations abound).

Bargaining will be next - as they try voter intimidation and false charges of 'voter fraud'. Plus, my guess is anything within a 3% Obama victory in ANY state will get the GOP's lawyers start earning their pay.

____________________

mac7396:

My theory on the wacky AP and IBD polls. These pollsters know. They know they've worked the numbers. This is John McCain "all in" strategy to prevent the election from slipping out of control, by making it look close. If they can turn it around, their polls will be believable after the fact. It's the only thing that can explain 1% AA sampling, 44% evangelicals, and republican voters supposedely outweighing inds and dems combined.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

MichaelJason I think I love you! ROFL

____________________

ErnieLynch:

RussTC3:
LOL, IBD/TIPP has Obama down by 54 points among Adults 18-24!

Some of the other cross tabs are equally hilarious, but that one takes the cake. Who knows how far off the rest of their results are if they can make such an enormous mistake with one of the demo groups, which, by the way, is the easiest to peg.

Actually, if you look back at some of their past results for this tracking poll, they've tinkered with a whole bunch of their internals.

---

I figired it out. The only phones IBD/TIPP calles is ROTARY phones.

____________________

cambridge blue:

Why would Battleground use an UNAIDED, open-ended question for selecting the president (the 44-42 number Boomie loves)?

Doesn't every other pollster use a close-ended question that provides choices to respondents (the 49-45 number in GWU/B that boomie hates)?

There's a big methodological difference here.

____________________

mysticlaker:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/big_picture_mccain_shifting_hi.php

He is pusing up advertising in toss up and red states...I think this only really means that he is trying to save congress. He may pull a bob dole and start to campaign only to save congress in weird places.

____________________

GoodRiddensW:

Montana SU poll O+4

____________________

MichaelJason:

LOL @ Portland ........... If you move to Maryland, you can have me.. ;)

____________________

DTM:

All campaigns receive questionable donations, and this particular story about Obama is not new and has been pushed by Republicans for a while. In the meantime, McCain's campaign is actually getting letters from the FEC:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/06/fec_queries_mccain_campaign_on.html

____________________

southern angler:

Boom
I wonder if your link has anything to do with all of the fraudulent charges being made on unsuspecting people credit cards by the Obama campaign. Rush has been talking about this for the last couple of weeks. This could be for real

____________________

PortlandRocks:

MichaelJason I'd have to bring my BF. I hear Maryland's nice. AS long as it's a blue state. I couldn't live LITERALLY wouldn't live in a red state. I'm glad my options for blue states will be expanding ever so much thought this cycle! I've always been curious about NC. I'm hoping Boomshak and I can be friends.

____________________

Chester:

@ Boom:
The website you linked to is a pathetic collection that makes the Drudge report look good. I read about your "fraud" and it's a joke.

You seem intelligant, why do you spend your time reading political websites with a flaming skull as a logo?

____________________

Stonecreek:

Everybody needs to understand something about IBD-TIPP. It is run by Lance Tarrance. Tarrance is a Republican political consultant from Texas who made a lot of money by providing Republican candidates with polls for fundraising purposes. Tarrance has many years of experience in spinning polls, cherrypicking samples, and skewing questions in order to get the results his clients are looking for. Those of you who have looked at his skewed samples (1% African American?)understand how he works. In other words, whatever the "results" of his polls, they are what his clients want you to have, not an unfiltered view of the way the world stands.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

southern angler you sound like a freaky Conspiracy Theorist. Did you know the US GOV ordered the attacks of 911 dude? SERIOUS! I READ IT ON A BLOG!

____________________

southern angler:

OMG here we go.

Open Comments - Thursday Morning 10-23-08
Thursday, 23 October 2008 11:54 administrator Please leave comments not related to a particular article here.
Add Comment (56) Hits: 590
Press Release: Obama & DNC admit all allegations in Berg v. Obama
Tuesday, 21 October 2008 11:05 administrator Obama & DNC Admit All Allegations of Federal Court Lawsuit - Obama’s “Not” Qualified to be President
Obama Should Immediately Withdraw his Candidacy for President
For Immediate Release: - 10/21/08 - Complete contact details and pdfs of this press release and motions filed by plaintiff Berg today are at the end of this article

(Lafayette Hill, Pennsylvania – 10/21/08) - Philip J. Berg, Esquire, the Attorney who filed suit against Barack H. Obama challenging Senator Obama’s lack of “qualifications” to serve as President of the United States, announced today that Obama and tbe DNC “ADMITTED”, by way of failure to timely respond to Requests for Admissions, all of the numerous specific requests in the Federal lawsuit. Obama is “NOT QUALIFIED” to be President and therefore Obama must immediately withdraw his candidacy for President and the DNC shall substitute a qualified candidate. The case is Berg v. Obama, No. 08-cv-04083.

Berg stated that he filed Requests for Admissions on September 15, 2008 with a response by way of answer or objection had to be served within thirty [30] days. No response to the Requests for Admissions was served by way of response or objection. Thus, all of the Admissions directed to Obama and the DNC are deemed “ADMITTED.” Therefore, Obama must immediately withdraw his candidacy for President.

OBAMA - Admitted:

1. I was born in Kenya.
2. I am a Kenya “natural born” citizen.

3. My foreign birth was registered in the State of Hawaii.
4. My father, Barrack Hussein Obama, Sr. admitted Paternity of me.

5. My mother gave birth to me in Mombosa, Kenya.
6. My mother’s maiden name is Stanley Ann Dunham a/k/a Ann Dunham.

7. The COLB [Certification of Live Birth] posted on the website “Fightthesmears.com” is a forgery.
8. I was adopted by a Foreign Citizen.

9. I was adopted by Lolo Soetoro, M.A. a citizen of Indonesia.
10. I was not born in Hawaii.

11. I was not born at the Queens Medical Center in Hawaii.
12. I was not born at Kapi’olani Medical Center for Women and Children in Hawaii.

13. I was not born in a Hospital in Hawaii.
14. I am a citizen of Indonesia.

15. I never took the “Oath of Allegiance” to regain my U.S. Citizenship status.
16. I am not a “natural born” United States citizen.

17. My date of birth is August 4, 1961.
18. I traveled to Pakistan in 1981 with my Pakistan friends.

19. In 1981, I went to Indonesia on my way to Pakistan.
20. Pakistan was a no travel zone in 1981 for American Citizens.

21. In 1981, Pakistan was not allowing American Citizens to enter their country.
22. I traveled on my Indonesian Passport to Pakistan.

23. I renewed my Indonesian Passport on my way to Pakistan.
24. My senior campaign staff is aware I am not a “natural born” United States Citizen.

25. I am proud of my Kenya Heritage.
26. My relatives have requested changes to the portion of my birth certificate that identifies my first name.

27. My relatives have requested changes to the portion of my birth certificate that identifies my last name.
28. My relatives have requested changes to the portion of my birth certificate that identifies my place of birth.

29. I requested changes to the portion of my birth certificate that identifies my first name.
30. I requested changes to the portion of my birth certificate that identifies my last name.

31. I requested changes to the portion of my birth certificate that identifies my place of birth.
32. The document identified as my Indonesian School record from Fransiskus Assisi School in Jakarta, Indonesia is genuine.

33. I went to a Judge in Hawaii to have my name changed.
34. I went to a Senator and/or Congressman or other public official in Hawaii to have my name changed.

35. I had a passport issued to me from the Government of Indonesia.
36. The United States Constitution does not allow for a Person to hold the office of President of the United States unless that person is a “natural born” United States citizen.

37. I am ineligible pursuant to the United States Constitution to serve as President and/or Vice President of the United States.
38. I never renounced my citizenship as it relates to my citizenship to the country of Indonesia.

39. I never renounced my citizenship as it relates to my citizenship to the country of Kenya.
40. I am an Attorney who specializes in Constitutional Law.

41. Kenya was a part of the British Colonies at the time of my birth.
42. Kenya did not become its own Republic until 1963.

43. I am not a “Naturalized” United States Citizen.
44. I obtained $200 Million dollars in campaign funds by fraudulent means.

45. I cannot produce a “vault” (original) long version of a birth certificate showing my birth in Hawaii.
46. My “vault” (original) long version birth certificate shows my birth in Kenya.

47. The only times I was to a Hospital in Hawaii was for check-ups or medical treatments for illnesses.
48. Queens Medical Center in Honolulu, Hawaii does not have any record of my mother, Stanley Ann Dunham (Obama) giving birth to me.

49. Kapi’olani Medical Center for Women and Children in Honolulu, Hawaii does not have any record of my mother, Stanley Ann Dunham (Obama) giving birth to me.
50. I was born in the Coast Province Hospital in Mombasa, Kenya.

51. I represented on my State Bar application in Illinois that I never used any other name other than Barack Hussein Obama.
52. I went by the name Barry Soetoro in Indonesia.

53. My Indonesian school records are under the name of Barry Soetoro.
54. I took an Oath to uphold the United States Constitution when admitted to the State Bar of Illinois to practice Law.

55. I took an Oath to uphold the United States Constitution when I was Sworn into my United States Senate Office.
56. I hold dual citizenship with at least one other Country besides the United States of America.

DNC - Admitted:

1. The DNC nominated Barrack Hussein Obama as the Democratic Nominee for President.
2. The DNC has not vetted Barrack Hussein Obama.

3. The DNC did not have a background check performed on Barrack Hussein Obama.
4.The DNC did not verify Barrack Hussein Obama’s eligibility to serve as President of the United States.

5. The DNC admits Barrack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya.
6. The DNC admits Barrack Hussein Obama is not a “natural born” United States citizen.

7. The DNC admits Barrack Hussein Obama was not born in Hawaii.
8.The DNC admits they have not inquired into Barrack Hussein Obama’s citizenship status.


9. The DNC admits they have a duty to properly vette the Democratic Nominee for President.
10.The DNC admits Lolo Soetoro, M.A., an Indonesian citizen adopted Barrack Hussein Obama.


11. The DNC admits the Credentials Committee has been aware of this lawsuit since August 22, 2008 as the lawsuit was faxed to our Washington D.C. Office on August 22, 2008.

12. The DNC admits their Credentials Committee failed to verify and/or inquire into the credentials of Barack Hussein Obama to serve as the President of the United States.

13. The DNC admits their Credential Committee’s Report failed to address the issues of Barack Hussein Obama’s ineligibility to serve as President of the United States.
14.The DNC admits Howard Dean, Chair Person has and had knowledge Barack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya and ineligible to serve as the President of the United States.

15. The DNC admits Plaintiff and all Democratic citizens of the United States have been personally injured as a result of not having a qualified Democratic Presidential Nominee to cast their votes upon.
16. The DNC admits Plaintiff and all citizens of the United States have a Constitutional Right to vote for the President of the United States and to have two (2) qualified candidates of which to choose from.

17. The DNC admits Plaintiff and all citizens of the United States have a Constitutional right to have a properly vetted Democratic Presidential Nominee of which to cast their vote.
18. The DNC admits an FBI background check is not performed on the Presidential or Vice Presidential Candidates.

19. The DNC admits the United States Constitution does not allow for a Person to hold the office of President of the United States unless that person is a “natural born” United States citizen.
20. The DNC admits they collected donations on behalf of Barack Hussein Obama for his Presidential campaign.

21. The DNC admits Plaintiff and Democratic citizens donated money based on false representations that Barack Hussein Obama was qualified to serve as the President of the United States.
22. The DNC admits if Barack Hussein Obama is elected as President and allowed to serve as President of the United States in violation of our Constitution, it will create a Constitutional crisis.

23. The DNC admits Barack Hussein Obama took an Oath to uphold the United States Constitution.
24. The DNC admits allowing a person who is not a “natural born” citizen to serve as President of the United States violates Plaintiff’s rights to due process of law in violation of the United States Constitution.

25. The DNC admits allowing a person who is not a “natural born” citizen to serve as President of the United States violates Plaintiff’s rights to Equal Protection of the laws in violation of the United States Constitution.
26. The DNC admits the function of the DNC is to secure a Democratic Presidential Candidate who will protect Democratic citizen’s interests, fight for their equal opportunities and fight for justice for all Americans.

27. The DNC admits the Democratic National Committee has been promoting Barack Hussein Obama’s Presidential election knowing he was ineligible to serve as President of the United States.
Our website obamacrimes.com now has 50.7 + million hits. We are urging all to spread the word of our website – and forward to your local newspapers, radio and TV stations. Berg again stressed his position regarding the urgency of this case as, “we” the people, are heading to a “Constitutional Crisis” if this case is not resolved forthwith.
Philip J. Berg, Esquire
555 Andorra Glen Court, Suite 12
Lafayette Hill, PA 19444-2531
Cell (610) 662-3005
(610) 825-3134
(800) 993-PHIL [7445]
Fax (610) 834-7659
philjberg@obamacrimes.comThis e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Attachments: File Description File size
Motion for Expedited Ruling on Plaintiff\'s Motion for Order re Req. for Admissi 67 Kb
Obama, Motion for Order deeming Request for Admissions Admitted.pdf 227 Kb
Press Release Obama - DNC Admit All Allegations of Federal Court Lawsuit. 85 Kb

Add

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Well if Rush is pushing it; it simply MUST BE TRUE!

LOL!

____________________

cambridge blue:

The small print on the IBD survey for the 18-24 data is interesting:

*Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size.

How small of a sample size is it to produce these skewed numbers?!?

____________________

Batony:

@NW Patrick or Portlands Rocks:

You called me a homo b/c you are a homo? Here in DC, the gay community is really trying their hardest to curb the use of Meth within their community...I can give you some numbers if you would like, b/c I swear you stay f..k.d up.

____________________

Stonecreek:

Just got this email forwarded to me from inlaws. This is a middle-aged Catholic woman. Her husband has NEVER voted Democratic.

"Well, I have to admit--I think both (husband) and I are converts. The more I have read and seen about Obama, the more highly I think of him. I am definitely not pro-abortion, but I have a hard time basing a presidential election on one issue, especially such a personal choice issue. I don't think the way to reduce abortions is through legislation; it has to come from the inside, not the outside--through personal convictions. It comes down to a woman having options other than abortion, resources, education, etc. I just don't see abortion as the same kind of issue as the war in Iraq or the economy or the environment. Also, anyone can say they are against abortion and that life begins at conception--we never really know what they believe--at least Obama is upfront about his position.

So, to answer your question--yes, I'm an Obama mama. I think Obama will surround himself (as he already has done to some extent) with very smart people, and that he will listen to them. I think very highly of Colin Powell, so his endorsement was a plus."

I've seen these kinds of testimonials before, but the significance doesn't really hit home with you until it comes from someone you know.

____________________

MichaelJason:

LOL - Come to Maryland anytime you want Portland.. DC is right next door.. lots to do!

As far as that "Obama is illegal" crap.... the FBI, CIA, AND Secret Service first verify that you are even a legal citizen in order to run for President. This stuff is insane. The State dept. CONFIRMED they have the original copy of his birth certificate. You right wing nuts are insane!

____________________

cambridge blue:

Someone in the Obama/Liberal MSM is speaking out about AP and IBD:

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/23/is-this-really-a-one-point-race.aspx

____________________

zotz:

southern angler-
And when are you starting your citizen's militia for the protection of White people?

It's not hard to see your next step.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Southern idiot. WOW! I can't believe the ENTIRE media is ignoring your story INCLUDING Drudge and Fox News. Isn't the liberal bias AMAZING? God are you seriously from this country? You are embarassing my friend.

Speaking of embarassing, anyone else noticing the desperation of GOP pundits?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/23/gop-strategist-on-palins_n_137226.html

____________________

Chester:

@ Southern Angler,

OMG!! I'll call Obama and tell him to pull the plug! This is awful! I guess we should call Hillary, huh? What do you think? What should we do? Advise us you moron.

____________________

sunnymi:

Rasmussen State Polling

Minnesota
Obama- 56
McCain- 41

Franken - 41
Coleman - 37
Barkley - 17

Louisiana
McCain - 57
Obama - 41

Georgia
McCain - 51
Obama - 46

Washington
Obama - 54
McCain - 43

____________________

JerryTheAngel:

According to a new Democracy Corps poll in Georgia, Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama by just two points, 46% to 44%.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

The only getting impeached after this election is Gov. Palin.

She and her husband meet with the Personnel Board investigator on Friday.

Good luck trying to spin that.

Where my latte, man? Go along. Run and get it.

____________________

DTM:

Although some of these people may well believe each "scandal" as it is rolled out (and re-rolled out, and re-rolled out again), my guess is a lot of them secretly know there is nothing to this stuff. They are just hoping it sticks long enough to affect the election.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Southern Angler: Fraudulent charges on credit cards? You mean like this?

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/10/22/shaddegg-sends-jethro-bodine-to-spy-on-dems/

It's a tale where a Republican operative actually went into an Obama HQ, gave a false name, bought some Obama paraphenalia, and then "accidently" left his credit card behind.

Did the Obama staffers try to run up the account on the card? NO! They returned it!

Unfortunately the card contained the Shadegg Campaign information. And the use of the false name could constitute fraud. So it was reported to the police. Turned out that it was a transaction made by the "legal" card-holder.

Was he spying...attempting to get a "transaction" on the card that could then be "denied" with the assertion that Obama HQ was taking illegal donations?


____________________

southern angler:

Virgina is about to go red again. As if it were ever blue.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

The only person getting impeached is Gov. Palin.

Both she and her husband are set to meet with the Personnel Board investigator on Friday. Good luck with that.

Where my latte, man? Run along and get it.

____________________

boomshak:

MORE EVIDENCE FROM RASMUSSEN THE DEMS ARE SLIPPING BADLY:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot

Democrats’ Lead Slips in Generic Congressional Ballot

Thursday, October 23, 2008

The Democrats’ lead over the GOP slipped two points over the past week in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if given the choice, 45% of voters would choose their district’s Democratic candidate, while 39% would choose the Republican candidate.

Take this together with Gallup, TIPP, GWU and AP and it tells us one thing: America does not want to be governed by a Socialist.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

southern angler VA is turning so blue you'd better move South 2 states 'cause you AIN'T SAFE IN NC EITHER! FAIL!

____________________

southern angler:

Cinnadope
No that has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

____________________

Timdicator:

Or at least that only 45% of America wants to be governed by a socialist, while 16% aren't sure if they want to be governed by a socialist.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak you are seriously beyond desperate.

____________________

M2:

Can't blame the right wingers for retreating into a fantasyland. No one likes to be on a month-long death march.

But buck up Dittoheads, you're more than halfway there.

What you really need to be concentrating on is making sure that the Dems don't get to claim we're better off in two years than we are today. If they can (and it won't be hard to clear the current low bar) and then keep that rolling through 2012, it could be a long time in political Siberia for you.

So, stop complaining and start sabotaging America. It's your patriotic duty.

____________________

mysticlaker:

georgia may flip. obama will be there next week. no doubt.

____________________

MichaelJason:

Montana:

A new MSU Poll puts Obama ahead of McCain 44 to 40. Each polls strong with his party, however Obama dominates with independents.

____________________

sunnymi:

Boomshak, I do not know whether I should be amazed at your audacity or sympathize with your lunacy....polls may tighten but a Win will still be Win, whether by a couple of points or by 10 points....start gloating when your candidate gets ahead!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Boomshak you are almost cute. You look for little signs of light...little signs of hope and post 'em here. It's quite funny.

____________________

southern angler:

PA may be red soon

____________________

PortlandRocks:

southern angler since this is a pollster site could you show me one proving your theory? Waiting.

____________________

Timdicator:

Successful troll is successful.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/big_picture_mccain_shifting_hi.php

He is pusing up advertising in toss up and red states...I think this only really means that he is trying to save congress. He may pull a bob dole and start to campaign only to save congress in weird places."

Also that's a reduction in total ad buys from 1297 last week to 1114 this week.

A total reduction of 183 (-15%). One would think that the net ad purchases would be going up.

Is he running out of money?

____________________

southern angler:

No poll is proof of anything. Pollsters feel that if you are stupid enough to believe in Obama's crap then you would believe their bias polls. Just keep believing and get ready for your surprise.

____________________

paradski:

Democrats’ Lead Slips in Generic Congressional Ballot

Thursday, October 23, 2008

The Democrats’ lead over the GOP slipped two points over the past week in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if given the choice, 45% of voters would choose their district’s Democratic candidate, while 39% would choose the Republican candidate.

Take this together with Gallup, Ras, R2k, Hotline, FOX, ABC/Post, NBC/WSJ and Pew it tells us one thing: America does not want to be governed by a cranky old man and a dip****.

____________________

Viperlord:
____________________

mac7396:

Southern Angler is right. PA and VA will go red real soon. McCain's message of hate and division really seems to be catching on. He really is quite the uniter, much in the way is mentor GWB was a uniter.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Boomshak -

Really? Slipping? Let's see what that was a month ago:

09-14-08
DEMS 44%
REPS 38%
+6 Dems

What is it today? Oh yeah ... +6 Dems

SAME SPREAD

Look at the trends dude ... Since April 29 ...

Dems have been between 44-47 (45.5 avg) and Reps have been between 34-41 (37.5 avg).

So in reality - no movement

____________________

Viperlord:

Southern angler: Back it up or get out.

____________________

Nowukkers:

Please. All of you who believe Obama to be a socialist, who would magically transform this country into a socialist state, are nuts. believe me. I've lived in socialist states, under socialist leaders, with all their attendant sloganeering and boiler-plate jargon, and redistribution of wealth, and a snowball has a better chance of lasting a day in hell than this country has of turning socialist. So for God's sake, shut your stupid pieholes until you know what you are talking about.

____________________

Nowukkers:

Please. All of you who believe Obama to be a socialist, who would magically transform this country into a socialist state, are nuts. Believe me. I've lived in socialist states, under socialist leaders, with all their attendant sloganeering and boiler-plate jargon, and redistribution of wealth, and a snowball has a better chance of lasting a day in hell than this country has of turning socialist. So for God's sake, shut your stupid pieholes until you know what you are talking about.

____________________

ticketstub:

@ Timdicator

Your "16% aren't sure if they want to be governed by a socialist" line made me laugh out loud.

____________________

Viperlord:

Nowukkers: Adding on to that... http://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2008

____________________

Nowukkers:

Sorry for the double post.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Nowukkers -

It was worth it.

____________________

boomshak:

BLATANT, STINKING CREDIT CARD FRUAD ON THE OBAMA WEBSITE!

Any of you who have made purchases online are aware that the merchant always asks for verification information, such as name, address, zip code, etc.

This is part of the built-in AVS system of the credit card software. In order for it not to work, it has to be over-ridden intentionally.

On Obama's website, the AVS has been turned OFF. that means that so long as you have a credit card number, ANYONE can donate with no verification, no way of knowing if they have given over their limit or are even US Citizens.

Here is one example of someone who just tested the system to see what would happen:

"Frankly, its easier than I'd believe to do this. Courtesy of my (real) CC number and expiration date, the Obama campaign has just received a $19.45 donation from mister Adolf Hitler, whose occupation is "Dictator" at the company "National Socialist Party of Ger" (I got cut off). I captured screenshots to prove this.

No verification required. The listed address wasn't even close to my real address.

While I hate to think I'm giving any money at all to these bastards, its worth it to prove once and for all that they are engaged in fraud. I will verify whether my card gets charged and report back.

So someone calling themselves "Adolf Hitler" just contributed to Obama using SOMEONE ELSE'S credit card and the charges went through, no questions asked (even though the name of the contributor and the name on the card obviously did NOT match).

Where the f*ck is the Attorneys General on this?

____________________

JerryTheAngel:

Let's say Obama does end up winning by just one or two states. Who cares!

The supreme court will be back in the hands of moderates. (3 or 4 might leave in the next 4 years)

Bush ran the gvt like he won in two landslides. Obama won't be so stupid to do the same if he eeks out a victory.

However, if he wins in a landslide, he will have more political capital to pursue a few bold and LIBERAL policy changes.

____________________

sunnymi:


This last line on Nate's analysis of the ridiculousness of the IBD/TIPP poll tracker says it all -

But the basic takeaway is this: you should absolutely not assume that just because someone has published a poll, they have any particular idea what they're doing. Pollsters should be treated as guilty until proven otherwise.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"S.Angler-
No that has nothing to do with what I was talking about."

Well the guy was a Republican aide to Shadegg, he bought Obama merchandise with a Shadegg card, used a fake name, and then "accidently" left the card behind.

Why would he do this other than to assert that the Obama campaign fraudulently made purchases with a card that they could easily point to as "never would be used for an Obama purchase"!

Except the idiot got caught!

How do we know that the other fraudulent "donations" were not similar scams? Or maybe cards that were used by someones' wife or kids? Maybe they support Obama but the holder of the card doesn't?

In addition, how would the Obama campaign obtain either the persons card imprint or a proper charging address to clear the transaction. If a card were stolen what's the likelihood of a thief taking the 20 minutes or so to make an on-line donation to the Obama campaign rather than purchases for themselves? And why didn't the owner of the cards report it stolen? They only noticed the erroneous "contributions" on their transaction records?

That points to me someone who was provided access to the card made the donation...someone within the family.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

Greetings all. This is my first post on this site. There seems to be a propensity for pro-Obama comments and all I can say is thank God that the majority of Americans have learnt from their mistakes in 2000 and 2004. It looks like Obama is going to win (whether by a landslide or not...I don't care). Good riddance to Bush; good riddance to dumbass Republican economic policies; good riddance to the psycho neo-cons.

Obama will win PA, CO, NM, IA and NH. Any other state is just gravy!!! That being said, we've got to be proud that our guy is kicking butt especially in southern red states like NC and VA. Furthermore, I think that GA will shock a lot of people.

____________________

boomshak:

Here's another example of a person who just donated to Obama on his website:

Name: Nodda Realperson
Address: 1000 This Is a Bogus Street
City/State: Neighborhood of Makebelieve, CA
Email: if.a.live.person.is.vetting.this.donation@its.fake.dont.process.it.com
Employer: Barack Obama
Occupation: Cow-Eyed Disciple

Yep, and the charge went through. Bullsh*t!

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "I will verify whether my card gets charged and report back"

Wait till that happens and then get back before posting such crap!

____________________

Batony:

I know the youth vote on the tracker poll should be reversed.

I wish I cared enough to really dig into the polls the way your guys do...it's really funny.

____________________

Mike:

Interestingly, the same thing works on the McCain website boom... Craziness.

____________________

Chester:

Anyone know what the ABC tracker is ?

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

Nate does a thorough analysis of the IDB Poll, but nothing about the Pew Poll showing Obama ahead by 14.

Hmmm.

This IDB poll is confirmed by AP, GWU and now Gallup which is only a few points away from this result.

____________________

patswin_sb42:

IBD exposed by Nate. Good job.

____________________

southern angler:

Hannity is now reporting
McCain campaign voluteer attacked an mutalated in Pittsburg.

____________________

miatch:

Boomey,
What makes you think McCain's online donation page works any different? I'm looking at it, and it seems identical to me.

Of course I wont give the old guy a cent (he's alright got hundreds of millions from his felon step-father.)

____________________

Viperlord:

(I can play this game too boom****)

REPUBLICANS UTILIZING VOTER FRAUD IN DESPERATION MOVE!

QUOTE
"Electronic voting machines still switching votes


Three Putnam County voters say electronic voting machines changed their votes from Democrats to Republicans when they cast early ballots last week.

This is the second West Virginia county where voters have reported this problem. Last week, three voters in Jackson County told The Charleston Gazette their electronic vote for “Barack Obama” kept flipping to “John McCain”.

In both counties, Republicans are responsible for overseeing elections. Both county clerks said the problem is isolated.

They also blamed voters for not being more careful.

“People make mistakes more than machines,” said Jackson County Clerk Jeff Waybright.

Shelba Ketchum, a 69-year-old nurse retired from Thomas Memorial Hospital, described what happened Friday at the Putnam County Courthouse in Winfield.

“I pushed buttons and they all came up Republican,” she said. “I hit Obama and it switched to McCain. I am really concerned about that. If McCain wins, there was something wrong with the machines.

“I asked them for a printout of my votes,” Ketchum said. “But they said it was in the machine and I could not get it. I did not feel right when I left the courthouse. My son felt the same way.

“I heard from some other people they also had trouble. But no one in there knew how to fix it,” said Ketchum, who is not related to Menis Ketchum, a Democratic Supreme Court candidate.

Ketchum’s son, Chris, said he had the same problem. And Bobbi Oates of Scott Depot said her vote for incumbent Democratic Sen. John D. Rockefeller was switched to GOP opponent Jay Wolfe.

“I touched the one I wanted, Rockefeller, and the machine put a checkmark on the Republican instead,” Oates said of her experience Thursday.

She said she caught the mistake, called over a worker in the county clerk’s office and was able to correct her vote. But she worries other voters may not catch such a mistake.

When asked if she is sure she touched the box for Rockefeller, she said, “I’m absolutely positive.” …!

____________________

mysticlaker:

@chester 5 PM for abc....

____________________

boomshak:

OBAMA ACCEPTING DONATIONS FROM FOREIGNERS!

Overseas Donations Go Through Without a Glitch

"I have a credit card issued by a bank in Hong Kong.

I’ve just made 5 donations of $5 each using the card. I listed fake addresses in North Korea, Iran, Gaza, Venezuela and Kenya. The names and addresses were made up, each was different, I listed real Yahoo email addresses that forward to me.

Fake Name
Not A. Realperson
Finance Violation
Fraudulent Charge
Over Donation Limit

All 5 went through without a problem. I’m already being solicited for more money.

This is f*cking full-blown election fraud!

____________________

paradski:

Nate does a thorough analysis of the IDB Poll, but nothing about the Pew Poll showing Obama ahead by 14.

Hmmm.

This IDB poll is debunked by Gallup, Ras, R2k, Hotline, FOX, ABC/Post, NBC/WSJ and Pew which ARE MANY points away from this result.

____________________

miatch:

Boomey, again, you can do the exact same thing on McCain's page.

FAIL

____________________

marctx:


B' CARVED INTO 20-YEAR OLD WOMAN'S FACE...

SHOCK: MCCAIN CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER ATTACKED AND MUTILATED IN PITTSBURGH

____________________

sunnymi:


@Boomshak
PEW poll is very detailed with all the demographic data and is extremely reputed in this business and is completely non-partisan.
It had a large sample size with low MOE and they even polled cell-phone users.

Nate did not analyze IBD Poll because it showed a 1-point lead but because how they arrived at it by completing reversing an important and potent demographic this election season.

Gallup is at 6 and IBD is at 1 i.e; 6 times as large.

____________________

JCK:

Who's committing fraud?

I would think it's the person submitting false information, not the campaign.

Good luck with this one Boom.

____________________

sunnymi:


@Boomshak
PEW poll is very detailed with all the demographic data and is extremely reputed in this business and is completely non-partisan.
It had a large sample size with low MOE and they even polled cell-phone users.

Nate did not analyze IBD Poll because it showed a 1-point lead but because how they arrived at it by completing reversing an important and potent demographic this election season.

AP poll had 45% evangelicals (twice the real number) and it reduced a 5% lead in RVs to a 1 in LV's.

Gallup is at 6 and IBD is at 1 i.e; 6 times as large.

____________________

Thatcher:
____________________

boomshak:

NEW YORK TIMES EVEN DID STORY ON OBAMA'S FRAUD AND NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE TO STOP IT!

Where the f*ck is the Attorney General? He lets the SoS of Ohio get away with fraud. he lets Obama get away with fraud.

What the f*ck does he do with his time?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/us/politics/10donate.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

____________________

cinnamonape:

Duh!

Anyone can type in material into an application screen and then "screen save" it. It doesn't mean it was a) accepted as a legitimate donation, or b) confirmed by the Credit Card company.

____________________

Scott W:

Yeah this is right on... 51-45 translates to election day:

Obama: 52.5-53.0%
McCain: 46-46.5%
Other: ~1.0

____________________

boomshak:

Gallup is 4. 6 is the bullsh*t "expanded" model that has never been tried before and assumes 2/3 voter turnout.

____________________

Viperlord:

NO WONDER PALIN LOOKS GOOD!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20081022/cm_thenation/45374662

QUOTE
No wonder Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin looks every bit as stylish as her NBC doppelganger Tina Fey.

It appears that the governor of Alaska has got a clothing allowance that's fit for a network TV star.

According to The Politico, Palin is living large on the Republican dime.

"The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August," reports The Politico.

"According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74. The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September. The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August," goes the account. "Politico asked the McCain campaign for comment, explicitly noting the $150,000 in expenses for department store shopping and makeup consultation that were incurred immediately after Palin's announcement. Pre-September reports do not include similar costs. Spokeswoman Maria Comella declined to answer specific questions about the expenditures, including whether it was necessary to spend that much and whether it amounted to one early investment in Palin or if shopping for the vice presidential nominee was ongoing."

Question: If the McCain-Palin ticket gets beat November 4, does the governor get to keep the clothes?

____________________

straight talk:

"If the McCain campaign has some sort of October surprise to release, now's the time," McDonald said Monday. "The number of early voters in Colorado is so great."

THis is a piece from an article on early voting in Colorado from politico.com Today! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!
GOTV IS IN FULL EFFECT! The Obama Campaing will be in the history books! This is unheard of in COlorado!

____________________

miatch:

Boom,
You just speak, you never answer. The way to give money online is IDENTICAL on McCain's page. The person receiving donations is not committing fraud, the person giving false information is committing Fraud.

Now, go turn yourself in to the nearest police station.

____________________

adocarbog:
____________________

boomshak:

Jack Murtha getting KILLED in the polls, now down 48 to 35.

____________________

straight talk:

"If the McCain campaign has some sort of October surprise to release, now's the time," McDonald said Monday. "The number of early voters in Colorado is so great."

This is a piece from politico.com. THis is why the RNC is pulling ads down! They say thousands of Obama supporters are flooding the polling centers! Colorada is going BLUE!!!!!!

____________________

JoeThePlumber:

LOL! 18-29 year olds have realized that there work to be successful will be capped by the socialist. Why work so hard in college and try to get ahead and earn more money when all your Mesiah wants to do is "spread your wealth"

I should know, I am in college now and can hear the students questioning why they supported him in the first place.


Bust your ass in college so someone else can spend the money you worked for. FAIL

____________________

boomshak:

SHOCK: MCCAIN VOLUNTEER ATTACKED AND MUTILATED IN PITTSBURGH

On Drudge now. "B" carved into young McCain supporters face by Obama thugs.

Incredible.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

Erroneous polls like IBD and AP might actually be beneficial to Obama's GOTV effort. I volunteer for the campaign and I was slacking off last week but these rigged tight polls just serve to energize me and other volunteers. Keep it coming IBD/AP.

____________________

miatch:

Right, Joe.
Somehow returning the tax rates to where they were under Clinton is socialism. Nobody made any money in the 1990s.

I think you need to take more classes.

____________________

Dan:

boom:
if this is the big scandal that is supposed to capture the news for several days. well... keep try'in

____________________

miatch:

Boom,
how do they know it was Obama supporters? And why would they carve a "B" in?

And who is the Klan voting for this year?

____________________

JoeThePlumber:

The 18-29 year olds are definately second guessing when confronted with socialism. Why cap their dreams when they are working to get ahead.

Four years of college and hard work so some lazy POS can spend your money. Ridiculous

____________________

southern angler:

Sounds like it’s about time to gather up a lynching party and go to Pittsburgh.

____________________

Nowukkers:

JoethePlumber:
You have no idea what socialism is. You are deluding yourself if you believe Obama, or even a democratic majority in Congress, would somehow turn this country socialist. Until you have lived that socialist nightmare, you've no idea what you're talking about. Do us all a favor, and go rant on a blog for dittoheads.

____________________

southern angler:

I agree with you Joe the Plumber. Thanks for being a responsible young American.

____________________

Obama008:

Boomshak, McCain supports call Obama a Islamic Terrorist.

Really have no room to talk.

But I found something in that IBD poll, which I cant get my head around. First they didnt poll any blacks, and 45% of the nation is now evangelicals. They polled more rep's then Dems.

There Demographics are so off its laughable.

Also look at this

Ideology
O M
Con 21% 69%
Mod 57% 29%
Lib 87% 7%

That is one of may inconstances I see in this poll. The MATH isnt right.

____________________

Viperlord:

Nate Silver disembowels the poll which the moronic Rethuglicans are clinging to: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html

____________________

Obama008:

by the way no one CARES about Joe the plumber.

The public could care less about him when his name came up in the debate.

____________________

boomshak:

So I went to the Obama website this afternoon and clicked on the "Donate" button.

I used my real MasterCard number (but was not asked for the 3 digit security code).

Used the following information and it was accepted...

First name: Fake
Last Name: Donor
Address: 1 Dollar To Prove A Point
City: Fraudulent
State: AL
Zip / Post: 33333
Email Address: allmyinfoismadeup@mediabias.com
Phone Number: 2125551212
Employer: Mainstream Media
Occupation: Being in the Tank

And incredibly, my $5 donation was ACCEPTED!!!

I then went to the McCain site and used the exact same information (and WAS asked for the 3 digit security code for my MasterCard). There, my contribution was rejected with the following message: "Your transaction was not approved for the following reason(s): Invalid data", and then: "We have found errors in the information that you have submitted. Please review the information below and try again."

I have screen shots and printouts of all of this as well.

Please tell me what I can do with this information? Is this a violation of FEC law by the Obama Campaign? How do we publicize this???

____________________

JoeThePlumber:

It doesn't matter what my opinion of socialism is. A lot of your 18-29 year old group are second guessing the direction it would take is. The fact that "we" are working hard to get ahead and others are lazy combined with Obama's "spread the wealth" comments have had an impact on "us".

I hear it every day.

Though "we" may not be as edumacated as you elitists and can't understand the definition of socialism we are beoming increasingly disturbed by the thought of having our dreams "capped".

____________________

Obama008:

Boomshake what you did was Illegal. If you posted that or sent that to a news group you could have charges put against you by the Obama Camp and the Credit card company for fraud.

I own a company that deals with this very problem.

You really dont want to do that. By the way you are lieing.

____________________

boomshak:

"B" for Barack...

____________________

miatch:

Boom,
You just committed FRAUD. What you should do is go to the nearest police station and turn yourself in.

____________________

boomshak:

@Obama008:

"Boomshake what you did was Illegal. If you posted that or sent that to a news group you could have charges put against you by the Obama Camp and the Credit card company for fraud.


I didn't do that. That was just a report on someone who did.

____________________

Obama008:

Sorry I thought you said you did that. Im sorry for that.

____________________

miatch:

So all you do is copy and paste around here, Boom?

____________________

boomshak:

So you admit this is fraud and yet Obama has turned off the AVS protection in his website to prevent this fraud.

____________________

JoeThePlumber:

A Russian classmate today asked me why America is moving the direction of socialism. I had to laugh.

If the "socialism" charge resonates with any group it is with those who have a stake in their future and do not want to see their success limited by the government. The 18-29 year olds. Liberal ideas always fail in this country. (eventually)

While we may not be heading toward socialism. The younger generation is waking up to the con game that has been played on them.

If Obama has been banking on that group he will be very disappointed.

____________________

miatch:

Obama008, the reason you thought that is that is what he said. So, either he's a liar, or someone who doesn't have original thoughts.

or both

____________________

boomshak:

@Obama008:

Obama has turned off the AVS protection on his website. He is committing fraud.

____________________

Viperlord:

Ignore Joe who continues lying even when he's been proved wrong. There is no large movement towards McCain among young voters. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html

____________________

miatch:

Joe,
America has had a progressive tax system for oh, like 100 years now. If that is what you mean by "headed towards socialism", guess what? we have always been here.

____________________

Obama008:

Boomshak

I work with CC companies, none of these companies would let a dollar follow through obama site if it did not have Anti fraud protection seal on it.

C-O-M-O-D-O

Secured By SSL

Right at the bottom of the site.

____________________

boomshak:

@miatch:

Boom,

You just speak, you never answer. The way to give money online is IDENTICAL on McCain's page. The person receiving donations is not committing fraud, the person giving false information is committing Fraud.

If you give a fake name or address on Mccain's site, your donation is rejected. Not the same.

____________________

Nowukkers:

JoethePlumber:
Then please stop bandying the words "socialism" and "socialist" about. Those of us who have been through those noxious regimes recognize that they are nothing remotely like anything that the Obama/Biden ticket proposes. You are emoting like a love-sick blue-balled highschooler.

____________________

miatch:

No, Boom,
Your friends are committing Fraud against Obama by lying to him about there addresses and names. You seem utterly confused about who is committing the fraud.

____________________

Nowukkers:

JoethePlumber:
Then please stop bandying the words "socialism" and "socialist" about. Those of us who have been through those noxious regimes recognize that they are nothing remotely like anything that the Obama/Biden ticket proposes. You are emoting like a love-sick blue-balled highschooler.

____________________

boolean_radley:

I know that it drives conservatives crazy, but it's time to face the facts, and the facts are these:

We, the Godless, communist, pro-homosexual, anti-Joe-the-plumber, anti-American, welfare-inducing elitist baby killers have become more popular than you.

I begged all my conservative friends not to vote for Bush. But they didn't listen. And Bush destroyed you.

Live with it.

Facts are facts.

____________________

Obama008:

@Miatch

As soon as American heard that any Movement towards McCain stop and turned around. Also Joe The Plumber isnt a plumber. And only make 40Gs and the company he wants to buy is not for sale, and he has 1500 in back taxes. What a Model Citizen.

I feel bad for the guy, the media ripped him up, Its McCains fault.

____________________

johncoz:

Is today Special Troll Day? Seems to be an even higher than normal level of lunacy on this board.

On IBD/Tipp, it's not just today's poll that's a problem. Here's what I posted yesterday in the discussion board of Abramowitz's interesting article:
/blogs/abramowitz_tracking_the_tracki.html
Quite frankly, a number of pollsters simply produce nonsense.

Rather than pick on poor Zogby again, consider Tipp: that tracker started on 10/13 with a +2 spread which had reached +7.3 by 10/18, the very day on which everybody's aggregations showed the tightest spread in over a fortnight (5-6).

Any admission they may have been in error? Not on your Nelly! They just soldier on pretending that they haven't made a complete ass of themselves. And this from an outfit that self-promotes as the "most accurate"...

The point being that Tipp has been junk from Day One, nothing different about today.


____________________

Obama008:

Its the person who is putting the false info in that is committing fraud and as far as McCain site rejecting false info is a flat out lie. The US gov't has problems with this all the time, I really doubt the McCain camp found a way to stop fraud on the internet.

____________________

JoeThePlumber:

It's about direction. Socialism isn't "ON" or "OFF". Their are degrees and direction. I personally don't mind a progressive tax code, but when college students hear that once they hit a certain salary their dream ends they get a little pissed.

By the way, Don't expect the 18-29 year old data from 10 days ago to match today. Up until "Joe the Plumber" the college crowd wasn't even aware of wealth redistribution. I talk with students every day on campus and this new "capping" your success strategy doesn't sit too well.

Matter of fact, I plan on quitting college after Obama is elected so he can give me someone else's hard earned money.

____________________

MichaelJason:

That woman is a liar. She "refused" medical treatment. If the "robber" "carved a B in her face" she'd be in the hospital. She is just trying to stir up racism. It's a white girl who is a drama queen seeking attention. Who gets a letter carved in her face and refuses medical treatment? LOL

____________________

johncoz:

@JoeThePlumber
It's about direction. Socialism isn't "ON" or "OFF". Their are degrees and direction. I personally don't mind a progressive tax code, but when college students hear that once they hit a certain salary their dream ends they get a little pissed.

Is this a parody, or are you really a complete idiot? "Their dream ends" because the marginal tax rate on the dollars they earn in excess of $250,000 goes up from 36c to 39c.

This is the Clinton tax rate. You remember Clinton? The guy who presided over huge economic expansion and handed W a budget surplus.

____________________

Disco Stu:

@ BOOMSHAK

Hey Boomy...why don't you just KEEP testing the Obama donations website...OVER and OVER and OVER!! LOL!!

____________________

timontheleft:

Joe, what are you talking about?

"this new "capping" your success strategy"

Nobody is capping anything. That would mean a 100% tax rate on all dollars above a set amount. No one has proposed any such lunacy.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

THIS was boomshak's big scandal?

ROFLMAOHAHHDSHHSKA:MSJMPJSPJP!!!!

lol!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Hi Boom!!!!!

Is this the big Obama take down I was waiting for?

If so, I am really disappointed.

____________________

Viperlord:

Boom has never been right. Why should this time be any different?

____________________

Nowukkers:

Joe:
You should have lived in the UK when marginal rates were 90% or in West Germany (as it was then), when marginal rates were 80% and they legislated against salaries over a certain level, causing many heavyweights to relocate and put their money in tax havens, or get paid in overseas currency. The same with France and Italy, and later Spain during the 70s and early 80s. There is zero chance anything remotely like this will occur here. Your college buddies are fools if they've bought into this bogus propaganada, or think they'll miss out by getting a better paying job.

____________________

southern angler:

By the way does anyone have an update on Baden’s International Crisis guarantee today? I’m trying to stay ahead of this so I’m starting construction on my safe room just in case it happens in Charlotte. What are the rest of you guys doing to protect yourselves?

____________________

Mister H.:

From Boomshak:

"Do me a favor and tell me what the MOST ACCURATE poll was in 2004.

I'll help you, TIPP.

Actually, Boomshak, the most accurate predictor was the overall AVERAGE of the polls. In fact, they were right on the money in the end.

So why are you hesitant to use that formula now?

After all, that method makes the most sense because it balances out all of the pro-liberal polls with the pro-conservative polls to get a realistic view.

____________________

JoeThePlumber:

@johncoz:

Once again it doesn't matter what I think. It is the perception of "spreading the wealth" that is not looked upon very will be students who want to someday be wealthy.

I'll give you the fact that it isn't "capping" in that it isn't 100% but why tell college students that the more they make the more you are going to take and give to soemone else.

I have no problem sharing my hard earned money but it should be my choice. I bet I give more to charity every year than many of you elitist on this board. I would rather cut out the middleman (Big Government) and get it to the people who need it most. Bigger government is not the answer.

____________________

southern angler:

Hey Ukkers I don't think Joe or anyone else gives a rats ass about what goes on in the Uk.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

I like how SouthernAngler has decided a lynch mob is now needed in Pittsburgh. (4:05pm)

Thank you for showing your real colors, racist. :D

This is exactly the type of America that McCain is talking to.

____________________

Mister H.:

And someone said McCain was pulling out of Colorado...that's not accurate. As a matter the RNC is focused soley on Co, Va, Pa, MO, NC and NV.,


Uh...according to both the Rocky Mountain News and The Denver Post (the two major papers in Denver), McCain IS pulling things down here.... It's confirmed.

____________________

Mister H.:

INTERESTING FACT ABOUT GALLUP:

Did you know that Gallup's "expanded likely" model assumes a 2/3 turnout of all RV's? Sorry, but it was only 54% in 2004 and that was a huge turnout.

Even his "traditional" LV assumes 60% turnout.


Interesting fact for you, Boomshak:

Here in Colorado, even conservatives are estimating that turnout could be as high as 90%.

And almost all pros out there are recognizing that early-voting trends are indicating that this could be the biggest turnout yet.

____________________

Nowukkers:

Southernangler:
Which is probably why Joe votes McCain - because he knows nothing except the tiny parameters of his own limited experience. I think that most folks on this site do give a rat's ass, because whether you like it or not, we're going to need them to get out of this cesspool that your illustrious W has so skillfully tossed us into. When you guys figure out how insular and parochial you are, then come back and add something intelligent to this site. Until then, pull your heads out of your collective asses and grow up.

____________________

southern angler:

Thanks Blueintexas, I guess you feel like its ok to carve Obama initial in some poor girls face. By the way Obama's party is the party of racist, idiot.

____________________

southern angler:

Uhh ukkers are you even an American citizen?

____________________

johncoz:

@southern angler

Still haven't got that new tinfoil hat?

@Joe

We have pretty solid empirical evidence about the voting intentions of college-age people -- very conservatively a 15pt edge to Obama.

If you want to argue otherwise you will need more data than a outlier poll from a company that totally discredited itself from the moment it entered the field on 10/13.

Repeat: DATA.

____________________

Rollin08:

Boom, I'm turning you in..

____________________

JoeThePlumber:

johncoz:


I don't remember Clinton. I was 12. All I remember is something about cigars an intern and impeachment. I do remember the impeachment. He was actually impeached. I also heard the great economic expansion was due to the Republicans taking over control after 2 years of Clinton failure.

It will happen again.


Also, All of you dreaming of a liberal supreme court. Dream on. All 3 that may step down are already liberal. The split will remain the same.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

@SouthernAngler

Tiny words from a tiny mind, eh? Please, the only time the Republicans are looking out for minorities is when an election rolls around. Then they ALWAYS want to look inclusive. The secret message of the GOP is "white makes right".

____________________

Dan:

JoeThePlumber:
"Also, All of you dreaming of a liberal supreme court. Dream on. All 3 that may step down are already liberal. The split will remain the same."

You're correct there. The SC won't get any less conservative under Obama. He'll just keep it from sliding further into insanity.

____________________

Mister H.:

Don't forget the MASSIVE OBAMA SCANDAL that's about to break.

Hint: It has to do with campaign contributions and could get Obama impeached if he wins.


THAT is your "all important scandal" that you alluded to last night? Oh really? Who is your source? Feeling like a journalist? Ok, then what postition does this "source" hold?

That's your cover story? The same story that has already been reported on, in that the RNC is trying to force a closer look at Obama's fundraising?

LOL...the problem, Boomshak, is that they have NO EVIDENCE. They are just HOPING there is something there. And guess what? Most of what they are trying to get Obama to do HE DOES NOT LEGALLY HAVE TO DO because the donations are less than $200.

Oh...and NEWSFLASH for you: This would not be an "impeachable offense," even if they tried to bring it up after election day. And could you please explain to me how a DEMOCRAT-CONTROLLED Congress would muster the desire to do that?

L.....O......L!

____________________

BlueInTexas:


Mister H:

Don't forget that Obama is also a foreign-born Muslim assigned by a sleeper cell to win the US presidency so he can launch a Islamofascist state.

Wait - I mean 'Islamosocialist' state! ROFL!

____________________

Nowukkers:

southern angler:
Uhh ukkers are you even an American citizen?

Yes. Unlike you, I earned mine - I didn't have it handed to me on a plate. I also fought for, and alongside, the US - so don't give me any bogus patriotic crap. The last 8 years, someone's been pissing on our legs and telling us it's raining. I'm sick of it - this is not the country I fought for, or became a citizen of. This is a megacorporate theocracy run by Machiavellian psychopaths, with the morals of crocodiles. McCain doesn't look like he's going to change that in a hurry.

____________________

southern angler:

Joe the Plumber
I have to say for a young guy you have a pretty realistic view of the Democratic Party. Bill Clinton was a huge disgrace for our great country. He not only embarrassed Americans with the whole cigar thing, but he is basically exposed himself as rapist too. He also ran a strong Reaganomic’s economy into the ground with a recession that was handed off to Bush.
Do let any of these liberal losers tell you different.

____________________

johncoz:

@Joe

I don't remember FDR (because I wasn't born). Doesn't mean I don't anything about the New Deal. That's because I read ... oh, wait ... reading could be elitist.

Seriously, if you are going to spout off about socialism and tax policy, it helps to know what you're talking about first.

____________________

southern angler:

I will make sure that pay attention to the next Obama speech, that way I too will be a socialism expert.

____________________

Viperlord:

Is this the twilight zone, or are these hyper-conservatives actually serious?

____________________

johncoz:

angler,

Before you totally embarrass yourself, it could be a good idea to refresh your memory on the economic indices of the Clinton era, like jobs, houselhold income and GDP growth that were all much higher than anything achieved under either Bush, not to mention a $290 billion budget surplus.

____________________

johncoz:

viper,

Both. They are seriously in the Twilight Zone.

____________________

Mister H.:

So someone calling themselves "Adolf Hitler" just contributed to Obama using SOMEONE ELSE'S credit card and the charges went through, no questions asked (even though the name of the contributor and the name on the card obviously did NOT match).

Where the f*ck is the Attorneys General on this?


Uh....Boomshak? Are you sure that is even ILLEGAL?

If it was illegal, WHY WOULD THERE BE AN OPTION TO TURN IT OFF TO BEGIN WITH???!!!

Financial software like that is required to adhere to federal law.

____________________

gymble:

A progressive tax code is not equivalent to socialism, which seems to be the current overblown argument. In the U.S., we've always had such a tax code. There are many arguments for why such a code makes sense, but the primary ones rest upon the idea that the wealthy benefit the most from a capitalist society and thus should pay a bit more to support it and that because basic living expenses comprise a greater proportion of the less wealthy's income, they should have to pay less in taxes. Now, there are a lot of arguments over what the exact spread between the upper and lower rates should be, but you're not going to find a whole lot Americans on either side of the aisle arguing that the progressive tax code should be done away with entirely.

Giving to charities, while commendable, cannot be a substitute for the progressive tax code. Charities don't and can't build all the roads, schools, hospitals, etc. that we need. Moreover, there's no guarantee that charities will fill all the gaps equitably. Back ca. 1900, "the deserving poor" was a popular concept, which basically boiled down to the idea that some of the poor "deserve" help and others don't. Charities can and will discriminate - or they just won't always be present where most needed. In other words, they're a supplement, not a substitute.

____________________

Mister H.:

Uh...Boomshak....

Do you not realize that you CAN make a donation with a foreign-issued credit card?

THAT'S HOW OVERSEAS AMERICANS DONATE!!!!

Seriously, man. If you want to troll this site, I guess go ahead.

But here's a quick tip: You need to make the trolling remarks at least somewhat believeable

____________________

JMTMichigan:

As someone who has written many, many web sites for charging credit cards, I can say with certainty that you don't just go in and click "disable AVS." Actually you have to code your software to recognize and look for the AVS response from the credit card processor.

Since a campaign website isn't selling any physical items besides bumper stickers etc, there's not a lot of point in checking the AVS. Credit card fraud is always about getting away with something physical (either cash or a big-ticket item) so that even when the charge is reversed the thief still has that item. Since the charge is always reversed there's really no point in using a stolen card just to donate to a political campaign because they won't get to keep the money. The campaign gains nothing and the person making the false contribution gains nothing. Why would they bother? Free Obama bumper stickers and tshirts?

The best theory I've heard so far is that this is just some incidents of a college kid (or other authorized account user) making a donation without the actual card account holder knowing about it.

____________________



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