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US: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Rasmussen 10/01-03)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/01-03,08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 51, McCain 45

 

Comments
Timmeh:

Seems debate was not a game changer...no surprise...

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zhimbo:

So, by tomorrow we're in "Tie" territory according to Boom. Riiigghhhttt.

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cjk002:

Isn't this supposed to be much closer to a tie according to Boomshak?

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ColoradoRider:

New rule: stop using the term "game changer." It's officially moved into into cliche territory. At this rate, by November entire sentences will be constructed out of nothing but the phrase "game changer."

Thank you

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boomshak:

To go from 2 days of +7 to +6 today, that means that Obama probably only polled around +4 yesterday.

That's a 3 point bounce to McCain.

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d3nnisbest:

Quote from Boomshak yesterday: "Ok, I'm gona say it. Rasmussen 2 points lower for Obama tomorrow."

Ha ha. :)

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boomshak:

Tomorrow, Obama 50, McCain 46. Monday (first day to have polling only AFTER the debate, Obama 49, McCain 47.

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riverrun:

For useful insight into just why Obama continues to nake steady gains even where there is no obvious game changer in the news, see the fascinating post on 538 re the ground game.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html#comments

The Obama camp is streets ahead on the ground. This kind of organisation is slow to show up in early polls (hence the repeated questions early on about why he was 'behind' the generic party ballot); but this degree of enthuusiasm becomes self-perpetuating.

Enthusiastic volunteers recruit more enthusiastic vounteers, and so Obama's lead continues to grow.

In addition, a second explanation for his lag behind generic Dem support was simply that he was an unknown quantity: voters simply did not know or trust what he was about. All he needs to do to grow further is to demonstrate some basic trustworthiness. This he did in the first debate, and will continue to do in the next 2.

Obama has already locked up EV's for all the Kerry states plus IA and NM: CO, VA OH and FL are moving steadily in his direction. Soon, he will be locking up the long shots: IN, MO, NC.

How much longer before we start to see GA, MT, SC, MS, and LA also turning blue?

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BOOMFAIL:

Thursday Rasmussen, Obama 54 and McSame 42.

I can see the future, thanks to the witchcraft.

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johncoz:

@boom
Ras makes the point that:
"For each of the past nine days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45%. The stability of these results suggests that the McCain campaign faces a the very steep challenge in the remaining few weeks of Election 2008."

Meanwhile, get ready for 4 weeks of brutal character assassination by Team McCain.

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IndependentThinker:

Hey boomCLUELESS
What about the following scenario
By Tuesday Obama leads 50-46 and after the second debate on October 7th he pulls away as much as much as 53-44 after people realized that McPain is painful and out of touch with their needs
You betcha!

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pbcrunch:

If there is a big change in the last night of polling, Ras generally will make a note of it... in this case, something to the effect of "In the first full day of polling after the vice presidential debate, McCain was closer than the previous X days of polling."

Nothing to that effect was noted at Ras this morning. Further, a Ras poll on the VP debate shows Biden winning by a comfortable margin. How that would translate into a surge for McCain is beyond me.

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Ryguy:

boom, what are you going to do if obama does win this election? im getting worried about you buddy...

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ErnieLynch:

Boomshak:
Tonights Powerball numbers, a projection please.

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kerrchdavis:

Obama had his best single day on R2K ever yesterday: O-52 M-39 to get to O-52 M-40 today. Now, criticize the weightings all you want but trends are trends and I think it is indicative that there will be no swing back to McCain after the debates.

Rasmussen also shows that Biden won the debates despite ridiculously low expectations for Palin, just as most of the non-koolaid drinkers here predicted.

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george:

Why don't we merely let Rasmussen itself speak for Rasmussen?

1) They note the remarkable "stability" of the results: Obama at 50 or 51% for the past nine days and McCain at 44% or 45%.

2) Rasmussen's own vp debate poll finds "Forty-five percent (45%) of voters thought Biden won the debate while 37% thought Palin emerged victorious."

So where's the movement, Boomerman?

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boomshak:

@george:

Tomorrow, Obama 50/49, McCain 46

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kerrchdavis:

It will NOT be statistically tied by tomorrow or Monday or Tuesday and possibly not ever again.

Instapoll results for the debate:
Biden Palin Undecided
CNN/Opinion Research 51 36
CBS 46 21
Fox 61 39
Survey USA 51 32 17
MediaCurves (indies) 67 33

Poll results for the debate:
Rasmussen Biden-45 Palin-37

Please forgive me for not including any fox 'text message' polls.

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McShame:

Obama up by 7 in Hotline!
http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/

48-41

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johncoz:

The fact Palin was unable to hit the 40s in any of the instapolls would seem to indicate a low ceiling of popularity for that style of vacuous populism in the current climate (Rich Lowry's hard-on notwithstanding).

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thoughtful:

Boomshak

Going back to the debate, I think we all gave Palin a lot more credit than what she was due.

OK she talked he way through any more deer in the headlights or got away with not knowing about bankruptcy legislation etc.

You have posted your 14 Biden Lies on site about 5 times. Did she manage to challenge Biden on any thing? I think we gave her more credit than the folks back at home nudge wink.

With regards polling and the McCain Campaign, the american people are centre right. Militarists like McCain and his predecessor Goldwater don't really appeal. Once the undecided saw what McCain was and represented and what Obama was and represented McCain was well and truly condemened to losing by a landslide.

McCain has got very little if any integrity left. Let's hope he can maintain some kind of dignity for the remainder of the campaign.

My fear is that he will mentally unravel and "lose" it completely on Tuesday night.

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kerrchdavis:

@McShame

So his lead increased in hotline? lol! :)

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Ryan in MO:

still waiting for McCain to go off the deep end in one of these last two debates.

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ErnieLynch:

McCains Unsavory Kremlin Ties

"Yet despite McCain's tough talk, behind the scenes his top advisers have cultivated deep ties with Russia's oligarchy--indeed, they have promoted the Kremlin's geopolitical and economic interests, as well as some of its most unsavory business figures, through greedy cynicism and geopolitical stupor. The most notable example is the tale of how McCain and his campaign manager, Rick Davis, advanced what became a key victory for the Kremlin: gaining control over the small but strategically important country of Montenegro."

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081020/ames_berman

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cjk002:

Has anyone else noticed that in almost every major national poll conducted since 9/26, Obama has scored between 48 and 51%? McCain's range has been 43 to 46%

Does this mean that he is finally "closing the deal" the way the pundits were saying he couldn't? Does anyone know how this compares to previous presidential elections this far out?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

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Lucky Luke:

The difference between Ras yesterday and Ras today is absolutely within the margin of error. So we can safely say that there has been no change from yesterday to today.

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ErnieLynch:

More treasonable activities by McCain staff

"According to two former senior US diplomats who served in the Balkans, Davis and his lobbying firm, Davis Manafort, received several million dollars to help run Montenegro's independence referendum campaign of 2006. The terms of the agreement were never disclosed to the public, but top Montenegrin officials told the US diplomats that Davis's work was underwritten by powerful Russian business interests connected to the Kremlin and operating in Montenegro. Neither Davis nor the McCain campaign responded to repeated requests for comment. (Davis's extensive lobbying work, especially on behalf of collapsed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has already attracted critical media scrutiny.)"

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081020/ames_berman

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Pazienza:

Remember this:

New Hampshire Democratic Primary

Polling Data

Final Results -- -- Clinton +2.6

RCP Average 01/05 - 01/07 -- Obama +8.3

American Res. Group 01/06 - 01/07 Obama +9.0

Suffolk/WHDH 01/06 - 01/07 Obama +5.0

Rasmussen 01/05 - 01/07 1774 Obama +7.0

ReutersC-Span/Zogby 01/05 - 01/07 Obama +13.0

CBS News 01/05 - 01/06 Obama +7.0

Marist 01/05 - 01/06 636 Obama +8.0

CNN/WMUR/UNH 01/05 - 01/06 Obama +9.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html


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McShame:
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ErnieLynch:

McCain : The Manchurian Candidate???

"In mid-September The Nation's website published a photo of McCain celebrating his seventieth birthday in Montenegro in August 2006 at a yacht party hosted by convicted Italian felon Raffaello Follieri and his movie-star girlfriend Anne Hathaway. On the same day one of the largest mega-yachts in the world, the Queen K, was moored in the same bay of Kotor. This was where the real party was. The owner of the Queen K was known as "Putin's oligarch": Oleg Deripaska, controlling shareholder of the Russian aluminum giant RusAl, currently listed as the ninth-richest man in the world, with a rap sheet as abundant as his wealth. By mid-2005 Deripaska had already virtually taken control of Montenegro's economy by snapping up its aluminum plant, KAP--which accounts for up to 40 percent of the country's GDP and some 80 percent of its export earnings--in a nontransparent privatization tender strongly criticized by NGO watchdogs, Montenegrin politicians and journalists. The Nation has learned that Deripaska told one of his closest associates that he bought the plant "because Putin encouraged him to do it." The reason: "the Kremlin wanted an area of influence in the Mediterranean.""

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081020/ames_berman

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thoughtful:

@cjk002

Barring a truly extraordinary event on all the polling eveidence indeed Obama has closed the deal. He is poling at or better than the post convention bounce consistently. there has been a trend and the polls are stable. See Rasmussen small print.

Hotline +7 today, just waiting on Gallup. Obama could exceed an 8 point average lead in the trackers today. 7.75% yesterday.

I am leaving GWU Battleground for a couple more days to stabalize its demographic weighting before inclusion.

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McShame:
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ErnieLynch:

McCain Clueless?

"Aside from a little campaign dough, what has McCain gotten out of all this? It's hard to tell--either he was utterly clueless while his top advisers and political allies ran around the former Soviet domain promoting the Kremlin's interests for cash, or he was aware of it and didn't care. McCain was reportedly so angry about Davis Manafort's role in stifling Ukraine's Orange Revolution that he almost removed Davis as campaign manager. But in the case of Montenegro, he should have known what Davis & Co. were up to. After all, McCain lent a helping hand. And by the time he visited the country, the Russian takeover was plain to see."

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081020/ames_berman/2

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kerrchdavis:

Can someone explain to me why the hell Palin is campaigning in California today?

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vmval1:

Maybe she's practising for 2012...

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Viperlord:

Is McCain's internal polling that bad? Also, about the lies boom blabbers about, someone else copied them and posted them on a site, where they were nearly all debunked.

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vmval1:

Has GWU released results??

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KipTin:

FYI...only one day post-debate is included in this poll as well as one day for the newly passed "bail-out" legislation with all its pork. If people perceive the "economic crisis" is over, will that show movement in the polls? We have to wait and see.

So Obamanation has gotten its talking points already. I just read an article that the tactic of the Obama campaign now is to say the race is already over (with +4 weeks to go). It is a matter of McCain/Palin keeping voters energized, and Obama is trying to throw cold water on GOP enthusiasm. Obamanation did the same with Hillary with an ongoing mantra that she should drop out before everyone voted. Well, no superdelegates and DNC committees to hand the election to Obama this time.

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kerrchdavis:

@Viper

So someone posted them to a fact check site or something and it turns out they're all a joke?

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Ryguy:

viper, the moment boom brought up lies i had to laugh. his guys campaign has been one of the least factually based in the history of elections

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sempervirens:

She's doing what all national politicians do here in California:

raising dough

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Viperlord:

Should have been clearer, someone posted that stuff on a website I occasionally go to, and it was debunked by a couple of people there. Also, I just discovered the unbiased independent source boom got the info from. http://www.johnmccain.com/McCainReport/Read.aspx?guid=343ba934-6417-4b65-ac9e-92348acb5e97 ROFL.

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KipTin:

Palin is in California primarily for "fundraising."

Results of Thursday's debate: "An analysis carried out by a language monitoring service said Friday that Gov. Sarah Palin spoke at a more than ninth-grade level and Sen. Joseph Biden spoke at a nearly eighth-grade level in Thursday night's debate between the vice presidential candidates" (CNN).

From Rasmussen: "The Vice Presidential debate on Thursday night attracted a bigger television audience than the Presidential debate a week earlier, but is not likely to have much of an impact on the results of Election 2008... Fans of each campaign overwhelmingly thought their team won. Obama supporters favored Biden by an 81% to 3% margin while McCain voters declared Palin the victor 76% to 5%... Voters under 40 said that Biden won, those over 65 said Palin, and those in between were evenly divided."

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BOOMFAIL:
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thoughtful:

KipTin

I think that you have got that wrong. The Obama Campaign is really focussed on consolidation at getting out the vote!

There is a complete lack of interest in what the McCain Campaign is doing other than when it misrepresents or tells lies.

PS the debate and the bailout that the Dems have passed is not going to give McCain/Palin any further support, the evidence is that they are shedding.

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Observer:

No sign of any advantage for McCain/Palin from the debate as yet. The question is how soon would we expect any affect? The obvious answer is in the days immediately after the debate. That may be true but there is surely something else to consider.

If somebody switches from Dem to Rep do they still call themselves a Dem or do they now call themselves a Rep or an Independent? If they are former Reps now fired up to vote for McCain (perhaps the most likely category of voters to be swung over by Palin) do they still call themselves Dem or Ind or do they now call themselves Reps again?

I presume that polling generally hits different people every day and that most people are only ever polled once. Whether they describe themselves as Dem, Ind or Rep will often depend on who they support at the time.

So did the debate persuade people to return to the Republican fold? Who knows, but if it did It might not be at all visible in any poll that operates on the basis of fixed numbers of Dem/Ind/Rep.

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KipTin:

Thanks, Viperlord. BTW: McCain's factchecks are indeed true and several sources are in agreement.

For example-- 6. ALERNATIVE ENERGY VOTES: According to FactCheck.org, Biden is exaggerating and overstating John McCain’s record voting for alternative energy when he says he voted against it 23 times.

I agree because Obama is actually including McCain's vote against the Bush/Cheney energy bill. You know.. the one Obama voted FOR. That is how Obama "justifies" his vote... that he was voting for alternative energy.

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Ryguy:

kip, your point about the debate is so laughable, especially since the whole republican mantra after the debate was how overly sophisticated joe biden was speaking, and how palin was just talkin like she was at a soccer game. what i find most hilarious is the line "palin was speaking at a more than NINTH GRADE LEVEL!"

ooooh... well thats so good for a person from alaska! she deserves a gold star that says "I'm Super at Spelling!". in other words your new argument is that your candidate is stupid, just not as stupid as our candidate. sounds like youre very enthusiastic about this election.

hey, ive got an idea though. how about we actually judge them on the merrit of their answers, or on mrs palins part, lack there of.

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eugene:

Boomshak is right on target ,because on Fox Rasmmussen just said Mccain probaly is going to be within 1pt by Tuesday,it appears the Palin factor is giving him a big bounce.

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Ryan in MO:

@eugene

well that will be very telling when Ras is the only poll that shos that after telling everyone he was going to manipulate it that way.

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vmval1:

OH SUH - NAP : O+8 ON GALLUP!

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vmval1:

From today's Gallup:

Voter preferences appear somewhat stable at the moment, as Obama has held similar advantages over McCain in each of the last three individual nights' polling. That includes Friday polling, the first interviews conducted following Thursday's widely viewed vice presidential debate, the passage of the economic rescue bill supported by both Obama and McCain, and Friday's bleak jobs report.

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IndependentThinker:

Gallup Obama 50% to McCain 42%
Palin effect
lol
boomCLUELESS on again got it wrong

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IndependentThinker:

Gallup Obama 50% to McCain 42%
Palin effect
lol
boomCLUELESS once again got it wrong

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NHBlue:

KipTin

The CNN article you quote also points out that an high-grade score doesn't mean clarity of thought. These "grade" figures are usually arrived at through a formula that computes size of words used and words per sentence. Palin's long, confused, and rambling sentences would of course give her a high grade. And anyway, isn't that what Repubs criticize in Obama? That he speaks above their grade level.

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AlanSnipes:

Well, I can't believe Rasmussen said that McCain will be within one by Tuesday.
Again today,the consensus of all the tracking polls adds slightly to Obama's lead.
There is still a long way to go, however, I would rather be the Obama campaign than McCain's in terms of who is in good shape as of today.
Pulling out of Michiogan is a bad sign for McCain.
The right can whine and moan all it wants to, it doesn't make Sarah Palin qualified to be Vice President because she didn't make a total ass of herself in the debate.
These are the same people who said George Bush was qualified to be President.

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kerrchdavis:

So since the debate:

Ras O-1 loss
R2k O+1 gain
Gallup O+1 gain
Diageo O+1 gain

Looks like Ras is going to be boomshaks favorite pollster again soon.

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laguna_b:

Palin is running a bake sale in Palo Alto to raise money.....she gets $200 for each "oh Gosh" and $500 for each "golly gee whiz"

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keytype123:

laguna-more childish comments,if you have nothing constructive to say then go away and let the big boys discuss things rationally

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NW Patrick:

Palin is an embarrassment to women. The joke has been exposed and it BACKFIRED badly. They should have picked someone intelligent.

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Jimbo77:

NW Patrick:

What a joke you are. Sarah Palin is very accomplished and you liberal scum play this "stupid" card every time a conservative is on the ticket. Remember how stupid Regan was. If you forgot just ask the 500,000,000 people who are now free in the former soviet states they probably remember.

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rashi2006:

haha o yeah i forgot Reagan was great he saved the world right? Reagan Nostalgia is hilarious its like no conservatives remmember how he started this pattern of massive budget deficits. Your right retards like Sarah Palin are definetly the answer.
McCain/ Dumb bitch '08

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Jimbo77:

Lets take a multiple choice test.

Where does Rashi2006 live?

A: East Coast
B: West Coast
C: The U.N. building
D: Paris

Answer:

The correct answer would be "anywhere real Americans dont live"

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saywhat90:

if rasmussen says that the polls will be within one by tuesday than i would find any findings he has very suspect. to make such a statement when we know the current pollign does not bear that out is very suspicious. i would say that if a democratic pollster had made that statement on a cable network.

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Paul:

Sunday October 5 - Rasmussen Obama +7

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Lucky Luke:

When did Rasmussen say that McCain would be within 1 point Tuesday? I think it was Boomshak who did! Boom can feel honored now.

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