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US: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Rasmussen 10/09-11)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/09-11,08; 3,000 LV 2%

National
Obama 51, McCain 45

 

Comments
thoughtful:

First

____________________

boomshak:

Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll finds that Obama-Biden lead McCain-Palin among likely voters, 49% - 41%, with 6% undecided.

Down 2 from yesterday.

____________________

JFactor:

The race is very stabil at this point. Days are withering away and the movement in poll's MoE is not anything. Obama is the next president if a national catastrophe ie. terrorist attack doesn't happen.
___________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

Adam:

Here's one sily little measure of stability: the title of this page on pollster.com is "us_obama_51_mccain_45_rasmusse_4" -- meaning it's the fourth time those numbers (51/45) have appeared in this poll. :-)

____________________

JFactor:

Adam, indeed. The numbers haven't moved a lot in a week now and it's quite suprising. We have to remember that people are usually made up their mind when October rolls around so maybe it's not so astonishing after all. If the numbers stay anything like this after the third debate then the race is over, completely over.
___________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

oomshack:
"Down 2 from yesterday."

boom, did you see the tabs? Hotline mentions that "the two point drop from yesterday was specifically engineered in as a silver lining in an effort to save boomshack' sanity."

____________________

GrampsMcCain:

Boom shows us the Hotine Poll lol, grasping at straws when he can. If Ras stays where it is Obama 50-52, Gramps 44-45, we are in good shape. My Gallup prediction for today

Obama 51
Gramps 41

(Obama gains one point)

____________________

boomshak:

OBAMA PRICED FOR PERFECT:

Obama's current "stable" lead of around 5-6 points is after 3 weeks of literally EVERYTHING going his way.

He is currently "priced for perfection". I can't imagine McCain doing a worse job than he has in the last 3 weeks.

Considering the electorate tends to move right the week of the election, Obama must make ZERO MISSTEPS between now and Nov 4 to win comfortably.

____________________

Frankie:

Why does boomshanks always pick the poll of the day that fluctuated within the MOE as some type of "game changer???"

Weren't they suppose to be "tied" last SUNDAY Boom?

____________________

Frankie:

Racist Republicans / McCain Supporters 2008 Greatest YouTube hits:

Obama Monkey Pt1:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKUovpF9LWU
Obama Monkey Pt2:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXOLCR9FHvs

____________________

johncoz:

@boom

Today's polls will end up being Obama 50-something, with a spread of about +8.

You, of all people, should know how silly it is to point to little wobbles in individual trackers.

From my numbers posted on the Kos board, here is the washup so far from the 5 daily trackers:
Mon 50.8/ +8.2
Tues 50.5/ +7.2
Wed 50.0/ +6.6
Thur 50.0/ +7.1
Fri 50.2/ +7.7
Sat 50.9/ +8.1

McCain's going nowhere fast, is the bottom line.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Watching Meet the Press, and they just posted Sarah's favorable numbers. I haven't seen these in a few days, but she is down to +39/-55 on the qualification.

The alarm clock has finally gone off and America is finally waking up. Good morning, America!

____________________

maddiekat:

boomshak

Delivering Pizza every night must make you bitter.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Didn't Hotline poll just have Mccain down by 1 point like 4 days ago? That still would be a 7 point GAIN for Obama if you are hanging your hat on this poll. This pollster is obviously sipping the koolaid and all over the place. Regardless, if boombatty is excited about ONLY an 8 point lead for Obama, then he needs to get outside and play. I'll take an 8 point lead any day!

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

Eternal:

Wow, even William F. Buckley's Son has abandoned McCain...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama/


"The son of William F. Buckley has decided—shock!—to vote for a Democrat.
Let me be the latest conservative/libertarian/whatever to leap onto the Barack Obama bandwagon. It’s a good thing my dear old mum and pup are no longer alive. They’d cut off my allowance."


____________________

DTM:

I'm generally not inclined to make predictions, but I would note it is certainly possible McCain's relative numbers could continue to decline. For example, possible proximate causes of such a decline could include further bad economic news, more self-inflicted wounds from the McCain/Palin campaign, a bandwagon effect, and so forth. Again, though, I'm not predicting that--just noting it is possible.

____________________

johncoz:

@boomshak

Where did you get the idea that Obama's lead in 5-6 points? Didn't you do maths at school?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

boomshack:
"Considering the electorate tends to move right the week of the election, Obama must make ZERO MISSTEPS between now and Nov 4 to win comfortably."

boom, you've suckled on hope! Good for you!

Meanwhile, unless I heard wrong on Meet the Press, James Knowles of the KKK infamy has come out endorsing Obama. Who'd have thunk it? We've lived to the day when a man convicted of a KKK murder would vote for an AA? Wow.

Boom, there is hope indeed.
It is a good morning in America!

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

rethugs like the fuzzy math.

____________________

makersmark:

I don't believe that James Knowles of the KKK endorsement of Obama, can someone please li;nk me
?

sounds insane


____________________

jonny87:

me too! link?

____________________

DTM:

Oh, and I forgot to list two other important factors:

First, there is one more debate coming, and so far the debates seem to have helped Obama.

Second, it is likely there will be an ever-growing gap in terms of things like voter contacts and advertisements, which again could help Obama. And if the RNC ever decides to start shifting more resources to congressional races, that gap could widen even further.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@jonny87 and makersmark:
I heard it on Meet the Press on NBC and posted it here. The transcripts of the show have not been posted yet on the NBC site, afaican tell.

____________________

carl29:

Poor boomshak, he really enjoys being the clown in the crowd :-)

====================================
Look at his predictions,

On McCain "suspending" his campaign:

"boomshak:
This is brilliant move by McCain. Obama can either follow him and suspend or go ahead while Rome burns.

Brilliant move.

Posted on September 24, 2008 3:06 PM"


"boomshak:
God this is a brilliant move by McCain. Wow, I'm amazed.

Posted on September 24, 2008 3:07 PM"


"boomshak:
What is the Obama Campaign going to say, that "McCain si suspending his campaign to solve this problem out of desperation"?

Lol, he has painted Obama into a small box here.

Posted on September 24, 2008 3:08 PM"


"boomshak:
What Americans are going to see is that McCain is putting their interests ahead of his own.

He is saying THIS is what my administration will look like "Country First", while Obama continues with "Obama First".

Believe me, this WILL play with average Americans.

Posted on September 24, 2008 3:32 PM"


"boomshak:
Looks like Obama is saying THE DEBATE IS ON!

Lol, he is a fool! McCain will be there in DC solving this problem and Obama will be at the debate.

Obama is gonna get blasted on this.

Posted on September 24, 2008 3:47 PM"

==================================

Yeah, "boomy" you are darn right, aren't you? :-)

____________________

drinkwine247:

Flyers fans are the best.....

BOOOOOOOOOOO
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7TgDanmWkg

____________________

KipTinBoomShakNotTooBright:

@carl29

Thanks for the reminder. Boom is such a donkey!

____________________

boomshak:

YOU LIBS HAVE NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT:

The same remarkable "ground game" that delivered a mere trickle of voters for Obama when a deluge was expected is in place nationally.

With their BS Polling using rediculous weightings (see Newsweek), the MSM is serving only to make Obama's voters overconfident.

Obama must make NO MISTAKES in the next 3 weeks.

Yep, it's in the bag, relax people.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@drinkwine247:
they were not booing, they were chanting "Buuuuuush, buuuuuush..." LMAO.
Btw, yesterday I called it: watch Sarah puck this one up too".

____________________

boomshak:

Poll: Close race between McCain, Obama in Ohio
The Associated Press ASSOCIATED PRESS

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/12/poll-close-race-between-mccain-obama-in-ohio/

Originally published 09:17 a.m., October 12, 2008, updated 09:13 a.m., October 12, 2008

THE POLL: The Ohio Newspaper Poll, presidential race among likely Ohio voters (20 electoral votes).

THE NUMBERS: John McCain 48 percent, Barack Obama 46 percent.

CLOSER AND CLOSER. NEARER AND NEARER.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@boomshack:
not a stickler for spellink, i must ask you why you insist on constantly misspelling your favorite word "ridiculous" with a "e"? Why is it REDiculous?

Are you REDiculing the RED states?
Are you suggesting that you are RED_____
a)neck
b)pinko commie lib
c)a book once
d)all of the above

Curious minds want to know!

____________________

johncoz:

@boomshak

If what you are saying is that the election's Obama's to lose, you are absolutely correct.

Fortunately, neither Obama nor his campaign have shown a propensity for blunders (unlike their hapless opponents).

And I don't think anyone is relaxing :-)

ps you should read some of Sean Quinn's posts at 538 if you want to get a flavour of the ground game (he visits both Dem and Repub outfits around the country).

____________________

VA Dem:

There is a McCain office in Virigia that is typically booming with volunteers on the weekend. I hung outside this weekend to see if the recent event have had any impact.

The office a ghosttown. Think about it. Wouldn't you be a bit shy about cold-calling and door-to-door canvassing with this kind of press.

McCain's ground game is dead.

____________________

jamesia:

boomshak: Obama hasn't really made any mistakes in the last few weeks... what makes you think he will now? Even if he made a small mistake, it pales in comparison to the mistakes McCain has made... and will likely continue to make. The Troopergate thing should really be the nail in the coffin. If Americans can really vote for someone that used her official power for a vendetta, then they're clearly voting for ideology alone.

____________________

PJ_FFM:

"THE NUMBERS: John McCain 48 percent, Barack Obama 46 percent.
CLOSER AND CLOSER. NEARER AND NEARER."


@boomshak

Yep. That's 2 % *less* disadvantage for Obama, compared to the same university's poll about a month ago. Obviously you have failed to find that very same poll here, because it is already listed... /blogs/oh_mccain_48_obama_46_ucincinn.html

And by the way, except for Rasmussen that's the last remaining poll with a McCain majority in this must-win-state. No Republican managed to win the presidential election without winning Ohio since... uhm... I think some time in the *19th* century... if at all...

____________________

drinkwine247:

Hey boomshak do you think this will help McCain in Ohio :

from the Toledo Blade :
"Historically, Ohio has had a critical role in presidential elections and appears poised once again to be a key in deciding who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years. This is an awesome responsibility, and one that cannot be taken lightly. For the future of Ohio and America, there is only one reasonable choice for president: Barack Obama."
or how about the dayton daily news:

"But in a time of change, Sen. Obama is the more promising leader. With his agile mind, often pitch-perfect judgment and preternatural calm and self-confidence, he seems built for the job of sorting through this thing, if anybody can.

The nation faces a choice that looks more and more like a choice between the future and the past. It has never been one to shrink from the future."

____________________

Frankie:

He reads the Washington Times lol

____________________

drinkwine247:

@BOOMSPANK

Quoting the Washington Times is like me quoting the message board at dailykos.com.

____________________

drinkwine247:

except the message board @ KOS is way more accurate!!

____________________

obamaownsboomcrapnkiptin:

funny how boomcrap avoided daily kos and zogby this monrning, boom crap is hiding out in threads that give mcsame any sniff of being competative.

____________________

DTM:

One would think someone posting on Pollster would check Pollster's chart for Ohio.

____________________

coyote52:

@carl29

Thanks for those entertaining quotes.

It's always fun to see blowhards completely discredited.

Meanwhile... the McPains and the Palins have to dial down their vitriol, and discourage their supporters from bringing pitchforks and torches to their "rallies".

____________________

chgo1:

Yes, please cite the one poll that shows McInsane ahead in Ohio. Then also note that the Toledo Blade and the Dayton Daily News have both endorsed Obama. LOL. I am willing to bet the Cleveland Plain Dealer is next...I bet you are exhausted grasping at all of those straws!

____________________

Observer:

Clearly the polls have not moved over the past week. Obama has just about the same lead he had seven days ago.

The past week has been notable for three things:

1. The attacks of the McCain camp centred on the Bill Ayres connection.

2. Wall Street falling off a cliff for day after day.

3. The Debate

Was there not affect from any of these things or did they simply cancel out?

Overall good news for Obama since keeping his lad and moving closer to the winning post must be good news for him. But I am sure that the McCain camp are relieved that the Wall Street Crash has not buried him even deeper.

Next week we might (and might not) have:

1. Further attacks

2. A rise on Wall Street? (or a further fall?)

3. Another debate.

Same as this week then with the possibility that 2 will go in the other direction. If it does then will McCain gain?

Overall I don't think this is yet a done deal, even at these levels in the polls since none of the Red Swing States, apart from Iowa, looks out of reach for McCain.

____________________

Observer:

Sorry for the typos.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Why ar you folks obsessing about the national results, which are fine for Obama. He's killing McCain in the battleground states. The real question is the size of the "Democrat" majority in Congress to go along with an Obama presidency. Boomshak -- "Keep dream'n (as Pitbull with Lipstick would way)"

____________________

straight talk:

McCain is turning out to be another BOB Dole! I voted republican the last two elections, but I am now votin for Barack Obama. I think McCain made a terrible Vp pick, but a hot one. He had two chances to buck his party and he could not or would not do it. First he could have picked Lieberman. And he could have voted against this Bailout. Both times he failed. And plus he can not handle Barack Obama in debates. The race is over!

____________________

cinnamonape:

"they were not booing, they were chanting "Buuuuuush, buuuuuush..." LMAO.
Btw, yesterday I called it: watch Sarah puck this one up too"."

Or "Boooooom, Booooom!"

____________________

Paul:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

I note with interest the following electoral college changes last week:
OR, WI, PA, FL, and CO all moved towards Obama. MO moved from likely GOP to toss-up.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

Hi Almighty boom
You're back, nice to hear from ya
So what do you get from your crystal ball toady?
Oh let me guess Gallup will show a tied race in about 30 minutes, right?
LMAO!

____________________

cinnamonape:

"I heard it on Meet the Press on NBC and posted it here. The transcripts of the show have not been posted yet on the NBC site, afaican tell."

The only place on the web I can find it after a search was a right-wing website. The guy was claiming it proves that racists and extremists of all flavors support Obama. So I'm a bit incredulous. It's interesting that the extreme right would be amongst the first to be revealing this...do they have folks regularly visiting Knowles in prison?

Who said it on Press The Meat?

However, if a good original source can be found I'd like to see Knowles' rationale.

____________________

@cinnamonape
I was the one who posted that, and I did hear it on Meet the Press. AFAIR, it was Ted Koppel, a guest on the show, who brought up this fact as it relates to the Discovery Channel show he is doing on the last lunching:

http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/koppel/highlights/highlights.html

However, as I mentioned, I cannot seem to find any links on the net as of yet. It is only something I heard while watching NBC/clicking through the Su morning news/reading the pollster stuff. I am fairly certain of what I heard, but have no additional information yet.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

crap, sorry for the typo. the last lynching.

____________________

jonny87:

go on the meet webpage now, its one of the clips

____________________

DTM:

@Boris_Dieter,

You are correct the outcome in the individual states ultimately determines the election. However, because the polling in most states is somewhat sporadic, you can reasonably use the national polls as a crude but somewhat effective leading indicator. Of course, for a more scientific approach to this issue, you can look at 538.com.

____________________

Isher:

@Boomshak

Everyone loves talking to you!

You mention the GOTV effort not turning up anything in Ohio. Those days also included the last days to register voters before the election. They were less interested in getting voters out than registering them.

____________________

jonny87:

gallup 50 obama, 43 mccain

____________________

cinnamonape:

I prefer to look at 10 day trends as that would mean there are two units of those before the election...and these would include the most significant events of the economic downturn...debates, etc.

DKos (D)/R2000 10/9-11 1100 LV 40 53 5 2 -
DKosD)/R 2000 9/27-29 1100 LV 41 51 5 3 -
[^3 Obama; +13]

Rasmussen 10/9-11 3000 LV 45 51 - - -
Rasmussen 9/27-29 3000 LV 45 51 - - -
[no change; +6 Obama]

Reut/ C-SPAN/ Zog 10/8-11 1206 LV 43 49 - 8
Reut/ C-SPAN/ Zog 10/5-7 1220 LV 45 47 - 8
[^4 Obama; +6]

Diag/Hotl 10/8-10 808 LV 40 50 - 7 -
Diag/Hotl 9/26-28 903 RV 42 47 - 8 -
[^5 Obama; +10]

Gallup 10/8-10 2773 RV 42 51 3 4 -
Gallup 9/26-28 2732 RV 42 50 1 8 -
[^1 Obama;+9]

GWU 10/6-9 800 LV 43 51 - 6
GWU 9/22-28 1000 LV 48 46 - 6
[^10 Obama; +8]

Ipsos/McCl 10/2-6 858 RV 40 47 4 9 -
Ipsos/McCl 9/26-29 1007 RV 42 46 3 9 -
[^3 Obama; +7]


____________________

carl29:

It seems that if McCain seems "bi-partisan," calling on his supporters to be respectful with Obama, McCain's numbers improve. The more he runs negative, the worst he does. McCain "set up" his "I'm-nicer-than-you-think" show on Thursday or Friday, and it seems people are gave him good reviews on Friday and Saturday night.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Gallup calls it a tightening of the race...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111064/Gallup-Daily-ObamaMcCain-Gap-Narrows.aspx

-----------------------------

These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama's lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days' polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.
--------------------------------------

Boom, go for it! Find solace in this.

My take, there is no way Obama has a 11 point lead. His lead is likely between 7-9 lead, and all the stats still point this.

Likely voter information:

Likely Voter Estimates for Gallup...

Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis through the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between through the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain. -- Jeff Jones

____________________

carl29:

In addition, I don't think that it helped the Obama campaign the comments made by Rep. Lewis. I mean, it just change the conversation to race, which is not a good conversation for Obama.

____________________

johncoz:

I note with interest that Gallup's LV Model II produces an identical result to Rasmussen ie 51/45. Should be an interesting week of polling coming up ;-)

____________________

cinnamonape:

Well maybe Koppel interviewed Knowles in prison, as part of his series.

Except as a statement of remorse (and hopefully as part of a confession of his role) I wouldn't put much more into it than a personal epiphany. Sadly, prisons overall are one of the most probable proliferators of racism we have in this country.

____________________

carl29:

According to Gallup, among LIKELY VOTERS:

Obama 50% McCain 46%

According to Rasmussen, among LIKELY VOTERS:

Obama 51% McCain 45%

According to Zogby, among LIKELY VOTERS:

Obama 49% McCain 43%

Average among LIKELY VOTERS:
Obama 50% McCain 45%

*Remember that LIKELY VOTERS are people with strong voting history, which tend to favor Republicans.

____________________

maddiekat:

Obama polls worse on the weekends. Gallup this Sunday O 50% M 43% / Last Sunday O 50% M 43% / Two Sundays ago O 50% M 42%. Relax people it is a 6-8 point lead Nationally and that is including getting beat by around 30% in several red states.

____________________

DTM:

By the way, Gallup is almost exactly where it was a week ago, which is almost exactly where it was two weeks ago. So I am tempted to suggest the big picture with respect to Gallup is stability more than anything else.

____________________

Disco Stu:

But NOTHING has been like previous elections this year...so LV models may be WAY off.

____________________

Tony in Texas:

McShame and the racist republicans (including boomshak!), whether they win or not, have already set this country back decades!!! I'm absolutely disgusted.

Thank you Frankie for the YouTube links. Painful to watch but I'm glad to know that I'm on the side of Right!

BTW. I'm an independent who voted for Bush both times. What a mistake!

____________________

Pazienza:

Data shows what a weak candidate Obama is. With all the horrendous economic news Obama should have had this election wrapped up a long time ago. Yet McCain keeps hanging in there. The news can't get any better for Obama so the movement should continue McCain's way the rest of the way. All he needs to do is pick up a couple of points each week and have a little good news financially and look out.

____________________

carl29:

maddiekat,

I know that this year, the traditional "likely voter" model is not going to hold, starting with African Americans. But I think that it is relevant that even by using the most "Republican-friendly" model, Obama is ahead and averaging the 50% watermark. In my opinion, the traditional "likely voter" model is the worst case scenario for Obama, and he still is at 50%. He support doesn't change.

____________________

Tony in Texas:

Alright Pazienza. Whatever you say buddy. Keep kidding yourself.

____________________

sunnymi:

Unless John McCain has a good polling day tonight I am expecting the margin on Rasmussen to go up tomorrow.

I was looking the net favorability numbers for him on Rasmussen and noticed that he had his 2 worst numbers on consecutive days ever on Rasmussen in the last 2 nights of polling (+4 and +5 respectively). He had his best numbers on consecutive days in the recent past on Wednesday and Thursday nights (+9 and +8 respectively). Since both those days will have fallen off the rolling average the margin between him and Obama will most probably widen.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@jonny87 - thanks!
here is the link to the James Knowles interview with Ted Koppel:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27148629#27148629

The soundbite in question comes up roughly midway through the segment. I found it helpful to pause the video and read the transcript because the voice is badly distorted to protect JK id (witness protection program).

I really could not care less what this man has to say, except that it paints an amazing and truly incredible turnaround in arguably one of the most extremist, fringe elements in recent American history.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Tony in Texas

Yeah ... you are independent indeed ... You are 3 times an idiot now .. twice by voting for Bush and now a third time by voting for Obama ..

Your dems are both racists and sexists..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LgJQ8UQWGU&feature=related

____________________

PJ_FFM:

Gallup has disclosed their "likely voters" model along with their fresh release.

It projects 50 O : 46 M.

I hate to admit it, but that's (un-)pretty close.

____________________

sunnymi:

Unless John McCain has a good polling day tonight I am expecting the margin on Rasmussen to go up tomorrow.

I was looking the net favorability numbers for him on Rasmussen and noticed that he had his 2 worst numbers on consecutive days ever on Rasmussen in the last 2 nights of polling (+4 and +5 respectively). He had his best numbers on consecutive days in the recent past on Wednesday and Thursday nights (+9 and +8 respectively). Since both those days will have fallen off the rolling average the margin between him and Obama will most probably widen.

____________________

johncoz:

Aggregated weighted results for the week (now including today) on the daily trackers show that both candidates have each fluctuated within bands of 1%, while the spread has moved within a 1.5% band. So if we discard the noise, the signal is very stable.

____________________

carl29:

Pazienza,

Did you see the latest Mason-Dixon NV poll:

Obama 47% McCain 45%

The previous poll:

Obama 39% McCain 46%

Remember that elections are won at state level :-) Bush won 2% of the popular vote and that was enough to win the electoral college.

____________________

Tony in Texas:

BTW Pazienza, these polls are pretty much stuck where they have been for months now. The only deviation was a week after the RNC. Then things return back to normal and except for Obama taking a few points larger lead, everything is stuck. Sorry man.

The only reason McShame has around 43% is because of the staunch repub base and a bunch of racist out there. Which isn't gonna get it done.

____________________

jonny87:

maddiekat...where can i find the rassmussen favourability ratings?

____________________

thoughtful:

The polls are absolutely stable, though with Gallup and Rasmussen McCain had a better night last night as the first night of polling (Wednesday) fell off after the debate.

Please doubters refer to the average on this site 8.3% or RCP 7.3%. The average tracker last Sunday was 7.6%. The unweighted average this Sunday is exactly 8.0

____________________

carl29:

I wish we could take "Pazienza" seriously, but some of "his" or "her" past statements just don't help her case.

Let me show you,

"Pazienza:
There are 40 days to go until the election. The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll shows: Obama 48% McCain 44%.

In 2000, 34 days before the election (from hard copy files - unable to find an internet link) The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll showed: Gore 51% Bush 40%.

Bottom line: there is a long way to go before this election is over.

Posted on October 1, 2008 2:13 PM"


Notice that Pazienza CLAIMS that at the beginning of October in 2000 Gore was 51% vs. Bush 40%. FALSE!!!!!!

According to Archives, Gallup had the following numbers:

Last 3 Days: Oct 3-5, 2000
Gore Bush
45% 44%

See, my point? Not a serious contribution to the dialogue.

People are entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts, my friend :-)!!!!

____________________

jonny87:

sorry, sunnymi...where can i find the favourability ratings?

____________________

thoughtful:

The numbers are + Obama over McCain for visitors just arriving on a trend that started a month ago.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@Pazienza.
Not sure what you mean by "Obama should have had this election wrapped up a long time ago."

No matter how you slice it, the election is not going to happen until Nov. 4. All we have until then are the polls.

And the national poll trends thus far have shown Obama blowing McCain away, up to and including by double digits. Point one.

Point two, the state polls show McCain's slide continuing, as more and more battle states turn blue, none have turned red. Point two b) - more and more previously red Bush states have turned either blue or into toss up. That list now includes WV, VA, NC and soon to join them MO and GA.

How much of a blow out do you want?

"Yet McCain keeps hanging in there..."

This was exactly Hillary battle cry. Look where she is now. McCain is actually channeling May 2008 Hillary: "my friends, the pundits have counted us out before...". Well, my friends, that is what Hillary was saying too when faced with insurmountable numbers.

And guess what? The pundits turned out to be right. When they said she was mathematically eliminated, she actually WAS mathematically eliminated.

Now McCain is facing similar insurmountable odds, acc. to all the polls. He's done a remarkable job proving the pundits (read: polls) wrong by dropping another point or two in same polls and going negative with character attacks.

If you think that the economy is going to turn into sunshine and roses any time soon, a la "The news can't get any better for Obama so the movement should continue McCain's way the rest of the way", you better check with our buddy boomshack, who has been chanting that mantra for about a month now.

Have a nice day

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sunnymi:
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sunnymi:
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jonny87:

thanks sunnymi

total favourable 51...not good

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jonny87:

anyone have any ideas on the weighting of gallup for party, age, race?

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bmrKY:

@VivalaRevolucion:
"@ Tony in Texas

Yeah ... you are independent indeed ... You are 3 times an idiot now .. twice by voting for Bush and now a third time by voting for Obama ..

Your dems are both racists and sexists.. "

Dude, seriously, give it up. You can pretend like you never propped up and voted for Bush the failure, that still doesn't mean it isn't a bunch of BS. And I would definately not be questioning another persons intelligence if I were you, considering all the "brilliant" and "insightful" things you have posted on here.

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wakeup:

Rashid Khalidi... October surprise?

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Pazienza:

Carl29:

Quit posting blatant lies on this website. You wrote:

"Notice that Pazienza CLAIMS at the beginning of October 2000 Gore was 51% vs Bush 40% FALSE!!!!!!"

Read the following

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Thursday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll indicates that Vice President Al Gore may be opening a solid lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush, after nearly two weeks of neck-and-neck competition. Today's figures -- 51 percent for Gore to 40 percent for Bush -- represents a significant margin for the vice president.

However, the survey of 672 likely voters was conducted Oct. 2-4, meaning only about a third of the interviews were conducted after Tuesday's presidential debate in Boston.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/05/tracking.poll/

Before you accuse someone of presenting false information you might want to check the facts!

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