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US: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Rasmussen 10/16-18)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/16-18, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 51, McCain 45

 

Comments
maddiekat:

Nice and consistant!

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Kile Thomson:

not good news for McCain

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ThatMarvelousApe:

The Houston Chronicle has endorsed a Democrat for the first time since 1964 when they endorsed native son Lyndon B. Johnson.

The reliable and reasonably stable Rasmussen, IMO, likely represents the most accurate picture of the race. I think both candidates have another percentage point they will pick up by election day, and then the remaining two represent people who may vote third party.

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Willem van Oranje:

Obama shows a trend upwards? Thursday up by 4, Friday up by 4, Saturday up by 5, today up by 6.
He hadn't been up by 6 since last Sunday

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BarackO'Clinton:

"The race is tightening"

...and...

"McCain is in the lead"

...are two separate things.

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NorthernObserver:

Good sample size. Any poll under 1000 will be problematic.

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vmval1:

150 Mill?!?!

That's f***ing unbelievable. Can you imagine what the Nov no's will be?


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jonny87:

thats more like the numbers i want to see!

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maddiekat:

Surge, what surge?

Oct 12th Oct 19th
O 51% O 51%
M 45% M 45%

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ThatMarvelousApe:

An Obama campaign worker was assaulted by a paranoid loon who thought ACORN was out to get him: http://www.wisn.com/politics/17754232/detail.html

This is what happens when you poison the democratic process by legitimatizing fringe conspiracy theories. Will a point or two in the polls be worth another Oklahoma City bombing? McCain really needs to ask himself that question.

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jonny87:

hey, is it just me or did palin look a fool(again) on snl?

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modrat:

The race is tightening a bit. Polling at 50% or more as Obama has done for the last 24 days, is a great thing. That means your opponent have to change the mind of people to switch sides. The negative stuff will not do this and may harden those supporters.

Now, even if McCain gets ALL of the undecideds, he loses.

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maddiekat:

Tina Fey would have been a better VP pick!

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boomshak:

Rasmussen has increased his dem party weighting from 5.5% to 6.7%. This may account for some of the movement to Obamarx.

Still, I wish this poll was going the other way.

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modrat:

@jonny78

Palin looked like she was not quite comfortable in her SNL deal. I really am starting to believe she is a sociopath. No emapathy to the world around her.

But Kudos to her for having the nads to appear.

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Rames1980:

Look like the numbers now are where they were a week ago.

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scjmcy2k:

$150 Million !!!

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jonny87:

boomshak,

obamas going to be in a good spot if he starts Nov 4 with around a 7 point id adv

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muckinello:

watch out .. TIED by sunday! (Nov. 9)

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At this point, the race is what it is. Its not changing much without a major faux pas or new national disaster. The great unknown is cell-phone only households. I noticed a recent pew study that looked at this. The error in their study is they only considered one of the two major segments: younger voters.

The poor are the other group. They use pay-as-you-go phones. They will not answer call from strangers as it costs them money they do not have. If young households add +1 to Obama and -1 to McCain, then given the registration drives, the poor could do the same.

Still, we know nothing for certain about the final dynamics of the race. I think the only thing certain is that pollsters will be discussing the outcome for years to come. With the increase in registration, the first African-American candidate, and the rise in cell-phone only households, the deck is filled with wild cards. Maddening for those of us who want to know, intriguing for those of us who love a mystery.

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Joe Sixpack:

Whatever we might like to think, and though this particular poll might not show it, the race is indeed tightening. The RCP national average is now only +4.9 for Obama. Yes, the latest headlines look good - 100,000 in St. Louis, $150M in September, and (likely) endorsement by Powell, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that the race is "won" or "over". There are more than 2 weeks left, and that's more than enough time for public opinion to turn sharply. Bin Laden may yet broadcast a tape like he did last time, the Joe the Plumber thing may yet catch fire, the race issue may rear its ugly head, etc.

This is no times to be celebratory or complacent. Every time someone counted McCain out, he came back stronger than ever. I definitely wouldn't put voter fraud/disenfranchisement beyond the GOP. So, please keep giving money to the Obama campaign and volunteer to get out the vote and monitor the voting process. Just a couple more weeks, don't let up!!

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GrampsMcCain:

The 150 million is unreal. I read Zogby's report on his latest numbers. He thinks that Mcsame has pulled within three points based on his performance at the Alfred E Smith dinner? Give me a break that is reaching a bit.

As far as Ras steady as she goes keep Barack at 50-52 and Gramps at 44-46 for the next 16 days.

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jonny87:

early voting beginning tomorrow in CO, about half pf ballots expected to be early votes. whilst hes high in the polls its a good time to start building a firewall.

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zotz:

MN poll Star Tribune
O 52
M 41

"Democrat Barack Obama continues to hold a wide lead over Republican John McCain in Minnesota, largely because most likely voters believe Obama would do a better job with the economy, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

The poll, conducted Thursday and Friday, found that Obama is supported by 52 percent of likely voters, while 41 percent are backing McCain. The results show that while McCain has cut into Obama's 18-point lead from two weeks ago, it's not enough to move Minnesota back into the toss-up column, as it was immediately after the Republican National Convention was held in St. Paul in early September."


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BOOMFAIL:

SO, tightening of the race means that Obama's lead grows???

Battleground States will decide this election, and those states are also widening for Obama.

Expect more of a breakaway. These robocalls are disgusting, and the more that people know what McShame is doing, the more it hurts him. Scumbag just said on FOX, "I don't care about Ayers..." Then why the hell are you calling my home telling me he associates with terrorists.

Most shameful campaign ever.

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vmval1:

When is Powell supposed to be on?

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boomshak:

REGARDING SNL:

I honestly do not know why McCain allowed Palin to go on a show where they basically described him as "a cranky, crazy old man with a creepy smile" and Obama as "angelic and having a voice like butter".

I also heard that they did not even let Palin see a script before she went on.

I mean, c'mon Camp McCain, why would you let Sarah go on when you had no idea what the script would say? She is bopping around there on stage to a rap song that is totally insulting you.

I think McCain's Campaign Manager may, in fact, be the dumbest man alive. It amazes me every day that McCain is staying in this race.

Lucky for him Obama is an unaccomplished communist. It makes McCain's job easier.

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johncoz:

Yesterday's daily weighted average for 6 national polls was:

Obama 49.1/ McCain 44.2/ +5.3

For the 5 daily trackers, the figures were:

Obama 49.6/ McCain 44.5/ +5.1

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers shows the 1 point decline in the spread, with most of that number coming from a decrease in Obama's support, dropping him below 50% for the first time since 10/6.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3198/2951865467_8aa5aa3574_b.jpg

One cannot predict today's numbers from yesterday's, but there are at least a few indications that Obama may be due for an uptick in the next day or so. The Rasmussen spread increased, the Gallup RV support for McCain fell, the IBP/TIPP poll recorded another rise for Obama, with its spread increasing 2pts to +7.3, McCain's favorability is not moving, and perhaps most important the state polling shows no sign of narrowing.

The Obama campaign will no doubt be hoping for an uptick, however modest, if only to stop the "tightening" meme from gathering momentum. This Rasmussen result is an excellent start :-)

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jamesugw:

True, BOOMFAIL, McStunt is running the most shameful campaign ever but with the national polls - in general - tightening, it will take another few days before we'll see evidence of the battleground states tightening also. Hopefully, Obama will still be left with breathing space going into the final weekend.

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DCDemocrat:

Personally, I just dropped a thousand dollars into Obama's tub. I have $975 more I can give and give them I will depending on the numbers on October 26.

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carl29:

Powell endorsed Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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tjampel:

Re Party ID

This is actually the first astute observation made by Boomshak in a while...or ever.

Ras' steadily increasing Dem Party ID over the past 5 weeks, may be as telling as any topline number. Seems as if there is either strong movement in this country towards the Dems in terms of self-identification, or else Ras knows that the real gap is 7%-8% and is doling it out in dribs and drabs to keep the race close. I frankly don't really care either way, except that, in creating this graceful glide path of +3.-->+.4 for the Dems each month it reinforces the meme that the underlying dynamics favor them.

If party ID really did jump .4% last week that indicates interviews for that week in the 7.5% range (assuming that he's using a kind of weekly rolling average going back 3 weeks and 21,000 interviews). If this is so then Daily Kos starts to look almost prescient with it's 9% spread. Also it's totally in line with Daily Kos recent poling results. After all if Ras was using 9% as its spread Obama would be up by 8 or 9 today.

I also agree with Boomshak that the polls will converge over the next two weeks with CBS probably being +2 for Obama and Ras being +1 for McCain. If the day before election day we see Obama at +3 from Ras and +6 from CBS/Kos we should expect a final result of +4-+5.

I'm curious to see if Gallup finally stops using RV It's a distraction at this point. Now that the final debate numbers are out it's time for all pollsters to show what their made of and give us their likely voter models. I also think Gallup should pick a model and stick with it...show some guys. No one's gonna respect them if they come into Election Day with O+2 and O+6.

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BOOMFAIL:

POWELL ENDORSED OBAMA AS EXPECTED!!!!

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tjampel:

meant to say .3% to .4% increase in Party ID for the Dems each WEEK, not MONTH

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vmval1:

I love that headline in the Pollster sidebar. There go another couple of news cycles for the McCain camp.

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zen:


In fact we have to add 2 point to Obama in Rasmussen poll because it doesn't include cell phone users.... so that means we are 8 percent ahead. That is exactly same as Gallup poll RV model which include cell phone users.

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DTM:

Palin's SNL appearance was very odd. Basically, you have people all around her bashing her and McCain with no real response from Palin. Meanwhile, her own big "jokes" are that she refuses to take questions or make fun of herself.

But I agree she gets points just for being there. Still, I'd be hard pressed to call that helpful.

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Viperlord:

Another nail in the coffin for McCain!

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jonny87:

tjampel,

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_39_7_democrat_33_0_republican

'Rather, they are established based upon survey interviews with a separate sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding six weeks. A total of 500 nightly interviews are conducted for a total of 21,000 interviews over the six week period'

Your right, a 0.4 point jump is pretty big if the rolling average is over 6 weeks

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vmval1:

Hey Boomshak, is this you?? Do a ctrl+f for Bill Mitchell

http://rightwingnuthouse.com/archives/2008/01/19/final-predictions-for-sc-and-nv/

the poster called Bill Mitchell from North Raleigh has the same 'panache' that you do

serious question...

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zen:


Palin's SNL

the first one was bit awkward except the last secene when she made the ending comment. (saturday night live!!!!)

the second one was funny where she was sitting and dancing....

She is quite funny and likable unless she dared to become VP of America

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MNlatteliberal:

Can we hear some kudos for Amy Polar (sp?) for doing that "all the mavericks in the house put your hands up! all the plumbers in the house put your hands up!" ?!! Hysterical.

The guy who did Todd Palin in the Arctic snowmobile suit was dead on.

IMHO the appearance, if anything, damaged Palin. The woman had no lines! She said nada. She talked to Lorne for a couple lines, Baldwin came in, dumped on her, she said she liked Steven better. Whooptie do.

On the news she put her hands up to Amy's rap.

Is this Vice Presidential?

On an unrelated note, while endorsing Obama on CNN live, Powell SLAMS BACHMANN!!!
Just slams her.
Good for him.

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jonny87:

zen,

just saw the second clip...pretty funny

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boomshak:

COLIN POWELL:

Well, Colin Powell has just lost ALL CREDIBILITY with the Republican Party for the rest of time. Geesh, what a douche.

He has always been a left dove, even when he worked for Bush. Nothing new here, although the MSM will portray him as the greatest Republican in the history of earth.

The part i found most amusing was when Powell talked about how disappointed he was that McCain had brought up William Ayers. I mean, my God, we musn't talk about alliances with former terrorists musn't we?

Powell is a douche. Next. Fail.

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BOOMFAIL:

Goodbye Joe the Plummer. Your 15 minutes are WAY over.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27265490#27265490

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BarackO'Clinton:

I was going to come in and ask "how long until the Righties start trashing Powell?" but it looks like old boomer answered my question...right away apparently.

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boomshak:

@vmval1:

Hey Boomshak, is this you?? Do a ctrl+f for Bill Mitchell

Not me. Bill Mitchell is a VERY common name. The typical phonebook has about 3 pages worth.

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MNlatteliberal:

Boom, the Republican Party has lost all credibility not only with American public, but with the rest of the world as well.

Look for the confirmation of this statement in a couple of weeks plus two days.
~Latte
PS: what color hat are we wearing today?
Looks like back to stage 1: Anger. Am I right?
(hint: no, I am LEFT)

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boomshak:

@BarackO'Clinton:

Powell has been lookin for some payback against Bush for a while now ever since he had Powell carry the water on WMD's.

You want payback, this is it.

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Som12H8:

I think Colin Powell made a very intelligent and persuasive argument to why we should consider voting for Obama. It's true that the republicans are being polarizing, and that's not what the US is all about - it's about coming together in difficult times. Officially and with some reluctance switching my support to the other side...

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1magine:

Weird - but it does seem much like 2004 where polls all over the place and begin to close around same place last 2-3 weeks. Zogby (internet) all over the place, vs. Gallup and Ras a little more steady. It looks like same theme here - - except that they favor the Dem. If polls are showing 4-6% on final weekend I will be chilling the champagne.

One quick question:
Why isn't Sydney breaking past 46%? Seriously - this has got to be the most troubling part of the campaign. Is it b/c according to Ras: Obama is viewed favorably by 55%, McCain by 52%. Those figures include 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 30% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of him (O+13). For McCain, the comparable numbers are 23% Very Favorable and 24% Very Unfavorable(M-1)? Not that I'd like to see this necessarily at 52-48, but 51/52 - 45/46 shows too many undecides (4%?)IMHO. I expect those current undecides will hold their nose and break 80-20 for Sydney. If National Popular vote is 52-48 on Nov. 4, VA & CO will be BO's and the election.

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ErnieLynch:

@boomshak:

COLIN POWELL:

Well, Colin Powell has just lost ALL CREDIBILITY with the Republican Party for the rest of time. Geesh, what a douche.

He has always been a left dove, even when he worked for Bush. Nothing new here, although the MSM will portray him as the greatest Republican in the history of earth.

The part i found most amusing was when Powell talked about how disappointed he was that McCain had brought up William Ayers. I mean, my God, we musn't talk about alliances with former terrorists musn't we?

Powell is a douche. Next. Fail.


Another respected member of the military TRASHED by the pelicans. Ala Max Cleland.

Now you know why the republican party is on it's death throes.

No clue, no plan, no way McCain

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thoughtful:

Good Morning all,

Back in China, I think their on average 10 year 15% growth year on year boom is slowing down. The US and world economy, proliferation, regional wars and environmental care are just some of the next President's agenda apart from adressing a lack of infrastructural and social investment at home.

The polls are exceedingly stable overall.JohnCoz's and Carl29 averages underline that point. Sure there is a solidifying of McCain's base by maybe 1 -2% but that's about it. Obama's numbers appear to be solid and he's got the money to make it competitive throughout all the presently pink, yellow, and make the light blue states dark blue.

Another unhappy morning for John McCain. See how he is with Chris Wallace this morning.

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jamesugw:

Very true, Som12H8, I also thought Powell's endorsement has pretty much all that has to be said about the choice facing everyone. Well done for coming on board!

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MNlatteliberal:

McCampaign efforts to reach the voters:


Ayers? - FAIL
Rezki? - FAIL
Wright? - FAIL
Palin? - FAIL
Joe-the-Plumber? - FAIL
Socialism? - FAIL
Earmarks? - FAIL

continue the list

PSSST: it's the economy, stupid.

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BOOMFAIL:

@MNlatteliberal
"On an unrelated note, while endorsing Obama on CNN live, Powell SLAMS BACHMANN!!!
Just slams her.
Good for him."

Poetic justice. Let's hope she gets flushed down the toilet Nov 4th with the rest of the wingnuts!

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Viperlord:

So I guess not being a neoconservative POS annoys boom?

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DCDemocrat:

The Salt Lake Tribune endorses Obama.

You almost can hear the glaciers melting, huh?

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

BarackO'Clinton:
I was going to come in and ask "how long until the Righties start trashing Powell?" but it looks like old boomer answered my question...right away apparently.

Oh they started that the moment it began to be circulated that Powell was likely to endorse Obama. Something of a preemptive strike I suppose, I suppose, although as a strategy I don't see a lot of benefit to it.

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johncoz:

Powell's endorsement is exceedingly awkward for McCain. It's all very well for boomshak to call someone often described as a "lion of the Republican Party" as a "douche", but that is hardly an option for McCain.

I expect the creepier surrogates to try to play some subtle race politics.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

I love the GOP reaction to Powell.

If his endorsement doesn't move independents, the disgusting reaction of the Palin mob most certainly will. Keep up the great work, boom.

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

boomshak:
COLIN POWELL:
Powell is a douche. Next. Fail.

Powell is the most popular member of the Republican party, by far, so good thinking on going to automatic attack mode because he made an edorsement you don't agree with. If the rest of the right-wing lunatic fringe adopts this tactic, I see great things in the GOP's future.

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slinky:

@boomshak,

Words have meanings.

Describing Obama as an "unaccomplished communist" does not help your cause.

No person who is the first black head of Harvard Law Review, blusters through the Illinois State Senate with numerous bills to his credit, and who has made a name for himself in 4 short years in the US Senate is "unccomplished".

Equating a liberal healthcare plan and equitable income tax policies with "communism" or even "socialism", gives credit to the assertion that you, boomshak, are part of the lunatic fringe.

You don't actually mean what you say above, so don't say it. It devalues you and your ideology (which I think is bankrupt, anyway; but you won't win over adherents with this kind of foolish writing).

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davidsfr:

Nate deserves some credit for being well tuned into the daily samples on Rasmussen. On Friday he said he thought Obama had had a great night on Thursday and he thought he would improve in that poll over the next two days. Given the glacial pace at which Rasmussen moves, a two point improvement over two days is impressive.

Also someone with premium access said this poll had gone from +3 to +6 Obama without leaners in two days from Thurs to Sat. Anyone who can give those numbers from today. I used to think the number without leaners was more accurate with Rasmussen, since he doesn't offer third party choices when he presses leaners, and unenthused voters will be less likely to vote.

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ErnieLynch:

@slinky:

@@boomshak,

Words have meanings.

Describing Obama as an "unaccomplished communist" does not help your cause.

No person who is the first black head of Harvard Law Review, blusters through the Illinois State Senate with numerous bills to his credit, and who has made a name for himself in 4 short years in the US Senate is "unccomplished".

Equating a liberal healthcare plan and equitable income tax policies with "communism" or even "socialism", gives credit to the assertion that you, boomshak, are part of the lunatic fringe.

You don't actually mean what you say above, so don't say it. It devalues you and your ideology (which I think is bankrupt, anyway; but you won't win over adherents with this kind of foolish writing).

---

Boomshak has no original thoughts, he just cuts and paste from fringe sites.

A parrot is a better description.

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zoot:

Houston Chronicle and Austin American-Statesman go for Obama, both solidly Bush in the past

From wwws.editorandpublisher.com. Boomer, are they part of the MSM conspiracy against true Americans? Sounds like a pretty good-sized conspiracy to me....

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Nhoj:

so boom powells a douche but Lieberman is a hero who reaches across party lines am i right on that one?

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1magine:

Did you call a 4 Star General a "douche". The former Allied Commander, former Sec of State. I have little respect for his actions in the Bush WH. But I sort of understand that he could not simply resign at that time w/o possibly damaging the US's position in the world. But as a retired US Army officer, I still have enough respect for what he accomplished, even if I don't like his Republican opinions.

Damn - you really are another mindless Rep. I don't know why I thought otherwise. I guess you will join the McCarthy bunch and pray for HOUA hearings, blacklists, book burnings, illegal wire taps and a corporate welfare state. That's what Jesus would do?

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maddiekat:

Hotline poll

O 48% M 41% undecided 8%

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thoughtful:

@JohnCoz

Did you try to reconcile the Gallup RV with the 2 LVs yesterday?

Both Gallup RV and Ras LV appear to be trending back to Obama since the Debates.

Powell's endorsement makes the "not ready" and "risky" even less of an issue.

Waiting to hear from observer on his take?

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jamesugw:

Hotline, unchanged O+7: 48-41

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MNlatteliberal:

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@ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

2BarackO'Clinton:

Oh they started that the moment it began to be circulated that Powell was likely to endorse Obama. Something of a preemptive strike I suppose, I suppose, although as a strategy I don't see a lot of benefit to it.

Mr. Zanzibar,
Do you realize that you just nailed the Bush Doctrine question that Ms Palin could not recite a few weeks back?

Preemptive strikes to spread democracy.
Maybe Boomshack is just spreading more of his democracy around? *g*

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political_junki:

@jonny87:
"early voting beginning tomorrow in CO, about half pf ballots expected to be early votes. whilst hes high in the polls its a good time to start building a firewall."

Is there a way to monitor amount of turnout and the demographics, like the way it is for georgia?

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joethedummer:

boomoncrack=kkk wannabe

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johncoz:

Hi thoughtful,

The only explanation for yesterday's Gallup as far as I can see is a sampling error, such as an anomalously high number of registered Dems indicating they won't vote. If this is correct, it should work its way out the system over the next couple of days.

On their LV-I (traditional) it should be noted that this is looking increasingly silly, particular if you look at the direction Rasmussens's LV stats are moving. I agree with a poster above that Gallup needs to bite the bullet and settle on a model -- they cannot possibly produce three separate numbers for ED.

Footnote: I think Zogby is still party weighting with only a 2% diff between Dems and Repubs. The distorting effect of that is offset in my average by the R2K weighting, which goes to the other extreme.

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Mike In Maryland:

Some thoughts on Rasmussen's "Electoral College Update" (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update):

Listed as 'Toss Ups':

Missouri (11 EC votes) -
On September 11, Ras' poll was McCain 51, Obama 46. Rasmussen next polled Missouri on October 5, when the results indicated Obama 50, McCain 47. October 12, the poll indicated Obama 50, McCain 47. October 14 (just two days later!), the poll indicated Obama 52, McCain 46. The trend seems to be for Obama, so why does Ras list Missouri as 'Toss Up' rather that 'Lean Dem'?

Nevada (5 EC votes) -
On September 11, Ras' poll was McCain 49, Obama 46. Rasmussen next polled Nevada on October 2, when the results indicated Obama 51, McCain 47. October 16, the poll indicated Obama 50, McCain 45. The trend seems to be for Obama, but with the tight margin, I can (somewhat) see why Nevada is considered a 'Toss Up' by Rasmussen.

By ONLY the Ras polls, I can see why North Carolina (15 EC votes) and Virginia (13 EC votes) are considered 'Toss Up' by Rasmussen. However, when you consider other polls (not just Rasmussen), it is hard to call North Carolina and Virginia as 'pure' Toss Ups, but rather lean Dem.

Ohio is the ONE state that can honestly be considered 'Toss Up' when you consider Rasmussen and the rest of the polls.

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jonny87:

political_junki,

i dont know of any other states that provide a georgia style break up of early voting (read that NC do, but ive not been able to find where)

id love to know virginias early voting break up, theyve been voting for a month whilst obamas been 6 or more points clear. as far as i know early voters tend to be older voters, if obamas managed to bag a lot of these he'll be in great shape.

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Chester:

A few thoughts...

Boomshak: I have respected your opinion in this forum even though I disagree because I thought you a decent person. I was wrong; so proven by you calling the most respected member of the Republican party a "Douche." From now on your comments are empty space.

On the endorsement: This is only the second Republican (after McCain as he was in 2000) that I would vote for. The extreme of the party has never liked him; recall the vitriol leading up to the war. But his influence with Independants and the "reasonable right" of the party can't be underestimated.
If only he didn't pull that **** at the UN in the Iraq build up... or we may be choosing between 2 black candidates!

____________________

Chester:

A great article on the signifigance of the endorsement.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1851832,00.html

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boomshak:

@Chester:
A few thoughts...

: I have respected your opinion in this forum even though I disagree because I thought you a decent person. I was wrong; so proven by you calling the most respected member of the Republican party a "Douche."

THE MOST RESPECTED MEMBER OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY?

Lol, by who, the Democrats? The ONLY Republican Democrats "respect" are the ones that lean far left. Powell has never ever been thought of as a conservative. It is clear that as he thinks the Ayers issue should be "off-limits" that he has truly gone off the reservation.

Apparently because Obama is well-spoken and articulate, that makes up for the fact he is a socialist which seems to cause Powell no concern whatsoever.

Yep, he's a douche. I'll stand by that.

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kerrchdavis:

150 million for the month of September? is that for real? wow...

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thoughtful:

Endorsements rarely deliver much. OK improves Context and the news cycle thing. It was interesting that Powell was being discreetly ageist in his pronouncement.

I would expect a few more Republican endorsements.

The tone of the McCain Campaign and Palin's selection have done McCain a lot more harm with centrist Republicans and Independents than good.

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boomshak:

@1magine:

Did you call a 4 Star General a "douche". The former Allied Commander, former Sec of State.

Yes, without question. Any man who throws his own party under the bus in favor of a declared socialist 3 weeks before an election is a douche.

The only reason I didn't call him something worse is I was trying to remain polite.

P.S., Wesley Clark is also a decorated war hero and that man is a complete idiot who talks from both sides of his mouth constantly.

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maddiekat:

boom****

You suck! Oh and I stand by that..

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ErnieLynch:

Boomshak,

What Powell is trying to tell you and I imagine it is difficult to talk to the Neanderthals wing of the party( all due respect to our evolutionary ancestors, the Palins excepted ) is that the pelican party is gone too far to right and it is time to move back to the center. (i.e) Middle Class, who McCain has rarely mentioned outside of "Joe the Plumber".

____________________

boomshak:

John McCain has been endorsed by multiple former SoS's and hundreds of retired Generals. Colin Powell has always leaned left and has an ax to gring with GWB.

____________________

boomshak:

@ErnieLynch:

The center? That was a joke right? Obama has one of the MOSR liberal voting records in the history of earth. Pelosi and reid are both hard-core libs. They will appoint liberal judges.

How the hell is THAT crew going to take us to the "center"?

You've bought the lie.

____________________

boomshak:

@maddiekat:
boom****

You suck! Oh and I stand by that..

When the nutball libs start hating on me, I know I'm right on message.

____________________

Ryguy:

boom, had powell endorsed your guy, why do i think youd have only great things to say about him? probably because republicans have loved powell up until the moment it became speculated that he would endorse obama.

well however you do feel about it... its good news for obama.

____________________

Chester:

IBD has Obama at 7.4% up, same as yesterday (7.3%)

____________________

political_junki:

Going by boom'stone , Powell's endorsement is REALLY REALLY hurting him in "you know where", GOOD :))))

Poor boom boom, and he doesnt even have enough material for his imaginary surge today. Ahhh I hate sundays, and those red commie communist MSM too.

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
"They will appoint liberal judges."

YUP! YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT,GET USED TO IT SUCKER, LIBERAL SUPREME COURT

____________________

political_junki:

@Chester:
Where did you see today's result? Their website is not updated

____________________

johncoz:

Gee, boom, your talents are obviously wasted stuck in this little forum. I'm sure if Plouffe knew of your talents he would help give you national exposure as the true voice of authentic Republicans. And there would be no better way to launch your national star than with your robust views on Powell. Should go down a treat with middle America.

____________________

political_junki:

@johncoz:
I have always suspected boom is an Obama double agent, planted here. That is the only way you can make sense of some what he says

____________________

mac7396:

The only way McCain can balance Powell's ringing endorsement of Obama, is to get a similiar endorsement from Joe the wannabe plumber, tax cheat fraud. A true American hero.

____________________

thoughtful:

@boomshak

I am personally finding your lack of grace on the Powell endorseent a bit difficult.

Lets just accept the endorsement with "not a surprise" and expected.

____________________

Ryguy:

thoughtful,

boom lacking in grace? why, you show me ONE post where thats ever been the case?!

____________________

Chester:

@ Boomshak:
My definition of "most respected" is most likely to win the Presidency in a general election (along with 2000 McCain). I don't care who the Bush supporters respect; their opinion won't matter anymore after Nov 4. Their ideology, their politics, and their ignorance will be relugated to the fringe to hang out with the rest of the militia nut-jobs.

I'm keen to see if this influenced McCain's negative advertising. Powell pleaded with him not stop this racism; will it have an effect or is McCain past looking back at this point?

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

"That's f***ing unbelievable. Can you imagine what the Nov no's will be?"

I'm waiting for December's numbers before I comment.

(Joke.)

____________________

political_junki:

@thoughtful:
But Powell is a communist. BOOM has evidence he was in communist training camp with OBAMA. then he infiltrated the army for his liberal-communist!! views disguised as a moderate.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

No doubt this will dominate Monday's news cycle and probably Tuesdays. And with Obama $150 million in September, McCain is going to have trouble breaking through to the news for the first part of this week.

This is a major blow to McCain. He cannot afford to lose even a single news cycle and he has already lost the next three.

Add the Michelle Bachman debacle, which McCain will distance himself from but Palin will embrace, and you'll have more negative new for McCain this week.

In order to break through, we can expect more of the McCain/Palin axis of attack:

Socialist-Terrorist-Anti American

Perhaps McCain can get back into the spotlight during the second half of this week but then we'll be close to the weekend and into the World Series. The next big event will be Obama's speech next Wednesday which is certain to dominate the news cycles into the weekend.

McCain is toast.

____________________

boomshak:

THE REAL REASON POWELL ENDORSED OBAMA RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION:

One prominent conservative who knows both McCain and Powell said that for all the Secretary of State's criticism of McCain and his praise of Obama, the move had less to do with the two candidates for president than the current occupant of the Oval Office.

"Powell cares a lot about his reputation with Washington elites and he thinks he was badly damaged by his relationship with the Bush administration," said this Republican. "So this is a way to make up for what he regarded as not being treated well by the Bush administration, not being given the due deferenece he thinks he deserves."

And that Powell would make his decision known in the closing weeks of the election, as it becomes increasingly clear that Obama is the favorite, reflects a calculated political move, says this source.

"Let's be honest – do we think Powell would be doing this if Obama had been trailing six or 7 points in the polls?" the source asked, deeming Powell's endorsement "a Profile in Conventional Wisdom."

____________________

Chester:
____________________

joethedummer:

I have been ddoing some diggin and good ol boomshat has some ties to a white supremacist group.
More to come on this folks!

____________________

Incumbent:

@boom
"Any man who throws his own party under the bus in favor of a declared socialist 3 weeks before an election is a douche."

How about a man who makes a well-reasoned endorsement based on what he truly believes is in the best interest of the country he loves and has spent his life fighting for?

Everything isn't about politics and winning, boom. Sometimes good people have to strip themselves of their party labels and ideological blinders and do what they believe in their soul is best for the United States of America. Powell is an honorable man who has served this nation proudly and without fail. You may completely disagree with his endorsement, but he certainly deserves better than the hateful rhetoric you're spewing in defense of something as petty as "party loyalty".

I know you'll either ignore this or come back with some additional despicable attack on me or Powell, so I don't know why I bother. I guess it just lets me feel a little better to not let your repulsive statements go unchallenged.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

you can always tell when boomshak is particularly agitated about something. lol, it's quite funny :)

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

A "respected leader of the Republican party" does NOT throw his party's candidate under the bus 3 weeks before an election (October Surprise Style) just to get back at GWB. A douche does.

Any shred of respect I had for Colin Powell has now utterly evaporated.

It's funny how the left thinks any Republican who endorses the socialist Obama is a "great Republican leader" and any that critcizes him is a "race-baiting bigot child-killer".

If you moonbats manage to get absolute power Nov 4th, it will be fun sitting back and watching it destroy you as you expose your true communist intentions to America.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

"it will be fun sitting back and watching it destroy you as you expose your true communist intentions to America."

roflmao! You're crazy boom. You really are insane. I didn't know they let you browse the internet from within asylums. You must be a VIP in that nuthouse you're in.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

Yep, boomshack is definitely back to ANGER. Stage 2. Though constantly regressing towards DENIAL, Stage 1.

Boom, you want to pace yourself so that you get through BARGAINING and DEPRESSION in time for Nov.4 ACCEPTANCE.

~ Latte

____________________

boomshak:

JOE LIEBERMAN, A GREAT AMERICAN:

There can be know doubt that Joe Lieberman has been a great American and a great Senator. However, it is quite clear that this year he is endorsing John McCain.

Let's here a round of rousing praise on how "well thought out" and "clear-headed" Joe's endorsement of McCain is. Let's hear how "brave" you think Joe was to speak at the Republican Convention.

C'mon moonbats, tell me how your respect and honor Joe Lieberman's choice of John McCain.

I'll be waiting.

____________________

Ryguy:

boom, you are a child.

____________________

joethedummer:

joe lieberman is a known racist!

good one boomy!

____________________

maddiekat:

Boom****

Actually Joe L was just bitter because the Dems wanted his opponent in the CT primary to beat him and he did. I imagine at this stage even old Joe is getting disturbed by the McCain tactics.

____________________

boomshak:

@joethedummer:

I have been ddoing some diggin and good ol boomshat has some ties to a white supremacist group.

More to come on this folks!

Lol, wow, now THAT is something even I would like to see. White Supremicist groups?

Some of my best employees are African American. They are sharp, talented and professional in every respect.

I have nothing against Barack Obama's color. Even if he was born and raised Muslim I would not care (peaceful Muslims are good people). I only care that he is a socialist.

You'll notice that Republicans NEVER bring up race, it is always just the Democrats that use it as a foil.

What party did Abraham Lincoln belong to? What party lead the charge on civil rights in the 60's?

Answer: NOT the Democrats.

What party has had former KKK members in Congress?

Answer: The Democrats.

____________________

laguna_b:

Unlike John McCain (the chooser of bimbo Palin to get eleceted rathr than secure our future), Colin Powell has put country above party.
Anyone who thinks that Sarah Palin is anything other than a hollowed out bimbo, and ready to be President loses virtually all my respect.

So many conservatives columnist have said so that they have preserved respect of thier honesty.....perhaps Boomshak can explain where all her qualifications lie and how she has hidden them.

____________________

boomshak:

@Ryguy:

You don't matter.

____________________

ErnieLynch:

@boomshak

A "respected leader of the Republican party" does NOT throw his party's candidate under the bus 3 weeks before an election (October Surprise Style) just to get back at GWB. A douche does.

----

Powells Party has disappeared 8 years ago. He ,unlike other so called patriots, is putting his country first.

____________________

boomshak:

@laguna_b:

How about Joe Biden? He flat-out lied and misrepresented the facts 14 times during the last debate. He is a walking talking clueless gaffe machine.

You can't honestly tell me that "President Botox" doesn't give you pause.

____________________

laguna_b:

@boomshak

Wait until the good people of Connecticut get a chance to nuke Leiberman....the senior senator for Israel.

____________________

boomshak:

Joe Lieberman is putting his country first. Colin Powell is putting his personal vendettas first.

____________________

PJ_FFM:

@boomshack

You realize that you just suggested that the former commander of V Corps, stationed in Frankfurt/Main, appointed during the Reagan administration, when there still was an iron curtain right through Europe, with the same guy being the one who in case of a war would be in command of the section of Germany where a potential Soviet breakthrough might have been most probably succesful ("Fulda Gap"), wouldn't be able to tell a socialist from an inteliigent patriotic US American?

The guy up front in a potential military conflict with the coalition of states known as the Warsaw Pact, who were by any serious standards considered communist or socialist?

The guy who used to sit behind General "Ike" Eisenhower's personal desk in V Corps command building?

Next time you'll accuse Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon AND Ronald Reagan of being obviously pro-communist for not starting the nuclear Armageddon a.k.a. World War III...

But in order to get back on topic -> do I see it right that the rolling polls would show an effect in three days from now, give or take a day?

I wonder what this will do to the military vote.

____________________

jonny87:

wouldnt mind a good day from gallup, the rcp average doesnt look to great with zogbys dumb weightings dragging it down.

____________________

davidsfr:

CHESTER,

That link is to yesterday's IBD poll, do they have one for Sunday yet? I tell you, they make it so difficult to find the results to that poll online!

____________________

Ryguy:

im not sure what that means boom... im pretty sure i matter to my loved ones. i suppose i could ask them, but i assume that i do.

that doesnt change the fact that you deal with things you dislike by either pouting, trying to get a rise out of people, or acting as though you really wanted it to happen all along (i.e. i cant wait for the dems to win so that you all get exposed. it will be fun). wow, really way of discussing differences with people.

____________________

JFactor:

"You'll notice that Republicans NEVER bring up race, it is always just the Democrats that use it as a foil."

Yeah that's a truthful statement.

As what comes to the polls, not much has changed. A little surge in the Republican side of the ticket and 1-3% tightening in the polls which leaves us with an Obama lead of 4-6%. Rasmussen is back with Obama +6 and if that's any inclination the "mini-surge" is effectively over.
___________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

Ryguy:

really mature way of discussing differences with people

____________________

jonny87:

Anyone from IA here? just watching a republican strategist saying mccains closing in IA. is any chance of mccain winning in IA based in reality?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Ryguy

"boomshak" and "mature" don't really go together

____________________

boomshak:

A LITTLE INSANITY FROM IBD/TIPP:

"IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Six
Posted: Saturday, October 18, 2008

"Obama expanded his lead from 5.3 points to 7.4. Some gains appear to have come from likely voters earning $50k - $75k per year, who went from 54% favoring Obama over McCain to 57%. McCain continues to suffer from a relatively low level of support among Conservatives (64%) versus Obama's support among Liberals (85%).

Huh, 64% support amongst Conservatives for McCain? That is just NUTS. Zogby reports that McCain has 82% support amongst Conservatives.

There is no way 36% of Conservatives are voting Obama. Zero chance period.

P.S., I know this is a respected poll that did well in 2004, but that internal calls the entire poll into question.



____________________

laguna_b:

@boomshak

Obama is not 72yo and near death....Joe Biden is VERY savvy on world affairs....he actually has BEEN to Russia not just seen it across the sea.

Palin has been mayor of a town that is 10% the size of my small town and Governor for 20 mos (with already an impeachable breach of legal ethics) of a state that is a quarter the size of Brooklyn and lives off oil revenue and Federal welfare.

She, like W are unable to string an sentence together that makes sense and has virtually zero understanding of the executive (What does a VP do?)

____________________

zotz:

Boom-
Do you know anything about what's been going on the last 8 years in foriegn policy? I'll give you a hint. A group of secret radicals took over US foriegn policy, imposed an extremist agenda that has led to a disasterous war in Iraq, stalemate in Afganistan, the resurgence of Russian and Iranian militarism and declining respect for the US around the world.

This group of radicals are called Neoconservatives or neocons and Lieberman has been one of their main allies in Congress. And yes he has endorsed McCain.

____________________

zen:


Re:Collin's endorsment

I don't think it will sway the voters.
However, it will solidify the soft supporters of Obama.... Now the doubt or concern about Ayers, socialist accusation will lose its momentum and it will hold the soft voters.

And since obama is ahead 4-6 percent nationally and in electoral votes,
This is very good stamp for obama victory!

____________________

Chester:

@ Boomshak:

Holy Crap now you're going after Joe Biden! Do you ever read your own posts and see how ridiculous you sound?

and as for small businesses... I'm a business owner, too with over 100 employees. Just because you're a business owner doesn't necessarily make you nostalgic for the "good old party" of Cheney and Rummy. In fact, being an owner makes me MORE interested in the well-being of my staff who depend on me for their livlihood. How would I look them in the eye if I voted for someone who would tax my health benefits to them and force me to take them away? Boom: don't you care about the health care of your employees?

____________________

wjbill49:

Someday, (not now) the U.S. is going to need a more mature Republican party or some opposition party that is not based on hate, paranoia and fear. We are a diverse people and our representation should acknowledge that. For someone to say they know what "real" American is about is a fool and does not contribute to us making progress in the world. Unless the goal is to not make progress and I personally think that would be a losing hand. Where are the non-crazy Republicans, have they all been shouted down? by the Limbaugh, O'Rielly, Hannity faction? What a bunch of bigots!

____________________

boomshak:

A LITTLE INSANITY FROM IBD/TIPP (con't):

And what's up with the 13% undecided in this poll? That's twice what Rasmussen and Gallup are showing.

____________________

thoughtful:

@boomshak

I don't remember anything other than acceptance that Joe Liebber had crossed party to support his friend John McCain.

Of course there will probably retribution in the Senate from the Democratic Caucus.

I just can't get over your gall in dissing other who have served the country in the dismissive and degenerate style of yours.

Are you a plant?

____________________

Viperlord:

For non-crazy Republicans, we have Powell, Paul, and Dick Luger isn't a crazy neocon either.

____________________

Viperlord:

You people do remember Lieberman isn't a Democrat anymore? So technically, he hasn't crossed any lines. Just a minor nitpick.

____________________

boomshak:

@Ryguy:

Look through this page. Pretty much EVERY post is directed at me. How many are directed at you?

If I left this Forum tomorrow, I promise you there would be hundreds of comments wondering where I went. Hell, I leave for even half a day and everyone freaks out. If you never posted again, no one would even notice you were gone.

"Hey, where did Ryguy go? Man, I miss his input!"

Nope, rediculous even to imagine.

Like I said, you don't matter.

____________________

Rames1980:

"Yes, without question. Any man who throws his own party under the bus in favor of a declared socialist 3 weeks before an election is a douche."

Do you have any idea what people could say if they played as loose with words and facts as you do?

I'm beginning to suspect this boomshak person is either paid by Pollster.com to keep up discussion here, where the election might otherwise be seen as a foregone conclusion, or a Democratic plant to make Republicans look like Beavis & Butthead.

____________________

wjbill49:

Lieberman is for Lieberman and that is about it. Not sure I have gotten over Powell's contribution to going to war. Paul? as in Ron Paul?

____________________

boomshak:

@Viperlord,

Dick Luger did NOT endorse Obama. Geesh. He said that Obama's policy of engagement would work at times and McCain's policy of exclusion would work at times.

Try reading the article instead of just the headline next time.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

"Hey, where did Ryguy go? Man, I miss his input!"

Nobody would miss your input. People here would just miss the opportunity to laugh at someone so stupid and constantly incorrect.

If you like being popular for always being wrong and spewing really pathetic bull****, hey, more power to ya!

____________________

maddiekat:

Ras is at + 6, 150 mil, and Gen Powells best wishes. Well its time to enjoy football while boom**** continues to make an ass out of himself. Good day!

____________________

Viperlord:

Yeah, Ron Paul. Whatever else he may be, he's no neocon.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

The RNC has begun the s**t slinging on the funds raised by the Obama campaign -

The RNC's 'Danny Diaz' was just on MSNBC stating that (paraphrasing) "people are calling in to state that they didn't give money to the Obama campaign, but their credit card was hit for a contribution."

Can they actually get any worse with the s**t slinging? It's going to be a very wild, feces- laden two week period.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Alright, football time! See ya'll later! Boomshak, remember, everyone talks about you because you are a joke and a pathetic person.

____________________

Batony:

Colin Powell is a 71 y/o black man, if it comes to anyone that a black man his age would endorse Obama, then you don't understand the black race.

That Star Tribune poll is -7 from the last poll taken.

This is a surprise...Columbus Post Dispatch endorses McCain? Interesting.

The tax issue is golden for McCain if he knows how to use it.

____________________

carl29:

Mike In Maryland,

Anything that is a gain for the Democrats, the republicans will slime it right away :-)!!!

Obama/Biden '08

____________________

wjbill49:

Just realized that each candidate has 17 "strong" states now that Maine is strong for Obama. Bad news for McCain is his 17 are generally much less populated and yields a 224 vs. 137 EV count. Makes the path to 270 (or mid 300's) easy for Obama not so for McCain.

____________________

1magine:

I have no less respect for Joe Lieberman than I did 4 years ago. I thought he was an ok guy, a decent senator and a little weak on the campaigning. I believe the same thing today. I disagree with his choice but he is neither a racist or insane. I will vote against him and in favor of a more progressive candidate in CT this year - but not b/c I hate or fear him, but b/c I do not like his policies. I would not vote for CP either, he is too conservative for my tastes, but I respect him a hell of alot more than JL. How do you comapre the 2? Oh right- you compare anything that helps you sleep at night. Nevermind.

____________________

PJ_FFM:

Boomshack, thank you for revealing your intentions...

With your 12:12 PM posting you're coming out as a troll whose sole purpose here is to gain other people's attention.

Your "input" doesn't matter, it's absolutely irrelevant, as it usually is off topic or the few times it isn't off topic, it is fed by a showing of a delusional bias and/or flip-flopping.

Anyway.

@those interested in a debate on POLLS:
Hotline is down for 1 % for BOTH major candidates - what do we make of this? Statistical noise?

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

boomshak: "If I left this Forum tomorrow..."

It would instantly become a much better place to debate.

You are a troll who judges his value based on how many people respond to you, not how they respond to you.

The fact that you don't even realize this makes you a moron and a troll.

____________________

johncoz:

Boom, at the beginning of the week you were trumpeting IBD/TIPP as the most accurate poll on the block, but now they are steeped in insanity. Of course at the start of the week their spread was +2, and now its +7.4.

As Olbermann would say: Coincidence, no doubt.

____________________

JFactor:

I wouldn't call boomshak a pathetic person but he's a narcissist for sure. Of course he doesn't believe all the things he writes here but it keeps him popular.
___________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

DTM:

As I suggested before, while generally endorsements don't matter much, I do think these endorsements from prominent Republican newspapers and individuals help Obama to the extent they give Republican-leaning independents (many of whom were registered Republicans not that long ago) a form of permission to break their normal pattern this year and vote for a Democrat.

By the way, the Republican Party simply cannot be a majority party in the United States without moderate "Eisenhower Republicans" such as Powell. And perhaps one of the most self-destructive tendencies of the Republican Party in the Bush-Rove era has been its absolute intolerance of internal dissent, which has driven many of these people out of the party entirely.

____________________

carl29:

Minnesota in 2004:

Star-Tribune | 10/9-10/11 809 LV
Kerry 48 Bush 43

Minnesota in 2008:

Star Tribune 10/16 - 10/17 1049 LV
Obama 52 McCain 41

==================================

See how good is McCain doing? :-)

____________________

Ryguy:

boom... i dont even know how to respond to that. its sad how delusional you are. you really think that people appreciate your input? people view you as a clown that they like to laugh at. people like to make fun of you. how can you not see that? are you saying thats how much you want to matter? that youre willing to play the role of the dancing clown all day long so that people will write posts about you.

____________________

Batony:

let's be honest, the only endorsements that really mattered for Obama are the ones from Hillary and Bill Clinton.

____________________

Viperlord:

Did anyone note that boom responded to something I never said? I listed Dick Lugar as a Republican who isn't a crazy neocon POS, and he flew off of the handle.

____________________

bill kapra:

SOME THOUGHTS ON BOOMY

I read this site a lot and post infrequently. (I hope that I've helped a bit by posting new poll numbers as quickly as I find them.) Here is a quick thought or two on Boomshak.

a. He's not a 'troll'. He may be a paid McCain internet operative but he doesn't masquerade as one thing in order to subvert the web dialogue. More than likely, he is one of a couple dozen paid nerds who sit at computers and make up personae to keep the opposition occupied. Don't take the bait. Spend the time you would be responding to him to volunteer for Obama or write a check.

b. We have much more to fear from folks like boskop. There's a real troll or, god help us, an actual hillraiser who is suffers from such acute cranio-rectal dysfunction that she has lost all sense of her own beliefs and goals. These are the folk that we CANNOT afford to lose.

c. Hate begets hate. It is easy to ready boomshak's comments and lose our sense of pride, hopefulness and enthusiasm. It gets replaced by bile and aggressiveness. Thinking with our glands is what got the US into its current fix. If you can't find it in your heart to read boomshak's hate speech and retain your own good heartedness, I suggest skipping any of his posts.

What we need come November 4 is a country looking forward to a government of ideas, courage and intelligence. It would be nice if that were accompanied by a citizenship less prone to outrage, fear and anger.

____________________

McShame:

Does CP endorsement help Obama? ABC analysts discuss the impact of his endorsement.

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=6065828

____________________

ErnieLynch:

@kerrchdavis:

Alright, football time! See ya'll later! Boomshak, remember, everyone talks about you because you are a joke and a pathetic person.

----

Agreed. GO STEELERS..

____________________

johncoz:

@Batony:
"let's be honest, the only endorsements that really mattered for Obama are the ones from Hillary and Bill Clinton."

As was canvassed on MTP, Powell will have an impact on states with large military and retired military populations eg Florida, Virginia, NC.

Also, Powell's national standing is almost the mirror image of W's -- ie 75% favourable.

Finally, he is worth at least 2 days of news cycle, which the McFuddle campaign cannot afford.

____________________

McShame:

@ Batony:

Whether you agree that this endorsement helps Obama or not is open to debate. But you have to agree with one thing - two days of coverage on this endorsement by the media is NOT a good thing for McCain especially when you have 15 days remaining. FYI this is a top story on every news channel now.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

On the Colin Powell endorsement I think that this will have a big impact on the military personel that serve this country. Among our service branches you would be hard pressed to find a more admired figure.

I've already spoken to a few people from the base here (DM AFB) and they seem to be reconsidering their positions with regard to Obama. Most people in the military seem to have Republican leanings but I would bet that this sways more than a few votes towards O this cycle.

As far as the rest of America goes, who knows. My bet is that it just chews up a few news cycles.

____________________

MileHigh:

One of the things I found very interesting was how Powell spoke on Supreme Court nominations. Any thoughts?

____________________

johncoz:

@MileHigh

One word: Roe

____________________

Incumbent:

@OneAngryDwarf

You're in Tucson? That's my hometown, though I've lived in CA for the past 10 years. Family still lives there though. Just wanted to give you a shout out, totally off-topic...

____________________

carl29:

I think that Colin Powell endorsement was directed to Independents/moderate-republicans because it was more about "how wrong of a turn the Republican party has taken" and "how sad that McCain has given in to that part of the party."

____________________

Glasbak:

@Batony:

"Colin Powell is a 71 y/o black man, if it comes to anyone that a black man his age would endorse Obama, then you don't understand the black race."

Ah! You understand the "black race", do you?
Like buddy Duke, I suppose.

And I suppose you understand the "white race" as well. Why on earth do we need an election?

____________________

orange24:

Some good, some bad...

Ohio NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 45, McCain 46 McCain +1
Minnesota Star Tribune Obama 52, McCain 41 Obama +11
Wisconsin NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 51, McCain 39 Obama +12
West Virginia NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain 47, Obama 41 McCain +6
West Virginia PPP (D) McCain 50, Obama 42 McCain +8

Unfortunately, it looks like West Virginia may be a lost cause, but time will tell. Ohio is still a statistical tossup. Wisconsin and Minnesota look to be well in hand.

Joe Scarborough said something interesting on MTP this morning after the Powell endorsement. He said if he could advise Obama, he would tell him to forget all these marginal red states where he may or may not hold a slight advantage and pump all resources into FL and OH. Adding that you don't need to win this thing by three touchdowns, you just need to win and presidential races historically get very tight the closer you get to election day. I'm not so sure that I disagree with that.

____________________

Commander_King:

Boomshak...you are such a ****ing loser.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Incumbent

Yeah I actually live south of Tucson in a little town (Sahuarita) but I used to work at the UofA. MNLatteLiberal also went to school here. Small world.

Where are you in CA? I moved to AZ from Monterey where the wife was stationed at DLI.

____________________

Ryguy:

bill,

i agree with most of what you posted, and i appreciate where you are coming from. personally i do not think that boom is either a traditional troll nor do i think hes a paid operative. i think he just really likes to post here. i agree that the best policy is to ignore him. i think that most people on here generally want to raise the discourse, and their responses to boom are often a result of their anger about the fact that we cant do it because every 3rd post on this board is some other outrageous statement by him. its a vicious cycle because it feeds him and he keeps going, when all people really want is to shut him up so that we can talk about whats going on like adults.

personally i think ive made a decision just to ignore him because i think ive said all i need to say to him.

____________________

DTM:

@MileHigh

Powell didn't elaborate, but in addition to issues like Roe, I also wonder if he has in mind a host of executive power and laws of war issues (for example, Powell broke early with Bush over detainee treatment). And that is what Roberts and Alito have really done--they were far more deferential to the Administration on these issues than the conservative Justices they replaced likely would have been.

____________________

Chester:

Obama 52% to 42% on Gallup ;
LV models 7% and 3%.

McCain is past his high water mark; it's all down hill from here!

____________________

asquared:

Boom goes the Dynamite
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

____________________

carl29:

Gallup is Out :-)!!!!!!!!!

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johncoz:

Well, well

Gallup
RV 52/42
LV II 51/44
LV I 49/46

____________________

mysticlaker:

orange, i couldn't disagree more. look what banking on flordia and ohio has done to us with the last two elections? it got us the big zero. We want lots of paths to 270...

Obama has plenty of resources and surrogates to campaign in 6-8 battlegrounds. I expect we'll see plenty of time in florida and ohio, but also virginia, nc, missouri, colorado, indiana getting lots of appopriate attention. Now, if started focusing on mississippi I'd be worried.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

I wonder if the Michele Bachmann incident pushed Powell over the edge. He mentioned her in an interview today and he seemed to talk a lot on MTP about the direction of the Republican party.

Michele Bachmann, the gift that keeps on giving.

____________________

ricbrig:

Ok, today is a beautiful day
I just watched Gallup poll
Tomorrow Zogby will be up, because he saw Gallup results. I can bet a six pack on it

____________________

Mike A.:

Yay Gallup! Wait till powell is added in :) Military and Veteren's yay!

____________________

mysticlaker:

orange, i couldn't disagree more. look what banking on flordia and ohio has done to us with the last two elections? it got us the big zero. We want lots of paths to 270...

Obama has plenty of resources and surrogates to campaign in 6-8 battlegrounds. I expect we'll see plenty of time in florida and ohio, but also virginia, nc, missouri, colorado, indiana getting lots of appopriate attention. Now, if started focusing on mississippi I'd be worried.

____________________

Pat:

Gallup;

Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain in the presidential race has again widened to 10 points among registered voters, 52% to 42%,

____________________

asquared:

...and so ends the Joe the Plumber bump

____________________

DTM:

@orange24

The thing is that there isn't a huge cost associated with campaigning in a state like West Virginia, so you don't get much benefit by redirecting any such resources to a larger and more expensive state.

Moreover, while flipping either Ohio or Florida would be a knockout blow for Obama, Obama also has plenty of other ways to win, so it would actually be a bad idea to put everything into just those two states. Assuming Iowa and New Mexico flip, at a minimum the list of states Obama should be campaigning in include Colorado and Virginia, and probably Nevada and Missouri too.

____________________

ricbrig:

I think Lv1 and Lv2 are in a `warming up` mode, which means the Gallup people are adjusting their weights. Still it's good that they point in Obama direction.

I cannot find them on drudgereport. uhm...

____________________

Ryguy:

oneangrydwarf,

would you please fill me in on this michelle obama incident? im not aware of it. if it has to do with michele bachmann than it must be frightening because i saw her hardball interview live and it was terrifying.

____________________

davidsfr:

Don't worry boomsh*thead the new Gallup daily shows everything going in the right direction:

RV Obama 52-42

LV1 Obama 51-44

LV2 Obama 49-46

Cling to that 3rd one like a blankey Little Linus!

____________________

McShame:

And we still have to see the effect of the Powell endorsement. But IMO we are in pretty good shape for this coming week.

____________________

carl29:

OneAngryDwarf,

Michele Bachmann? This is one of the most stupid people I've ever seen. She had a pretty "easy" race, and then, there she goes to put her foot in her mouth. Now, her opponent got half a million dollars in 24 hours, money ready to combat her. I must say that I am one of those who sent Mr. El T. $100 to kick her buttocks :-)!!!!

*I heard that this morning she was backtracking on her rethoric against Obama. Too late, sweetie :-)!!!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Hi Boom,

Another Sunday...Another statistical tie for McCain in Gallup. You are too good at this!

____________________

KipTin:

You guys should read this Rasmussen poll results:

"Democrats Favor Spreading Wealth Around, GOP Disagrees"
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/democrats_favor_spreading_wealth_around_gop_disagrees

"Among voters who earn less than $40,000 annually, 50% say Obama understands their reality better than the others. Fifty-two percent (52%) of those who earn more than $100,000 a year say the same. But, among middle-income Americans, those earning $40,000 to $100,000 annually, 58% say that either McCain or Joe the Plumber best understands their situation. Just 35% say Obama does."

____________________

Ryguy:

oh im sorry dwarf, i misread your post, for some reason i though i read that you wrote michelle obama at the beginning of your post and then referenced bachmann at the end of your post. going back and reading your post i see that it was entirely regarding the bachmann interview. my bad.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Ryguy

Michelle Obama? No sorry I don't follow. I was talking about the ugly Countdown interview with Michele Bachmann, when she went off the reservation and started asking for a review of Anti-American activities in Congress.

Powell had an interview with Politico I guess where he (I'm paraphrasing) said that she was one crazy bitch and implied that nuts like her were ruining the Republican party.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/19/politics/politico/thecrypt/main4531191.shtml

____________________

Incumbent:

@OneAngryDwarf

I'm in San Diego. I got my BA at UofA. Yeah, it is a small world. It's good to hear that some of the troops at DM are reconsidering for Obama, though there's not a snowball's chance in Hell that AZ will turn blue this year...

____________________

carl29:

KipTin,

Did you read this part as well?

"Given a choice between the two presidential candidates and Joe, 44% say Obama is the one who best understands the economic realities they face. Twenty-nine percent (29%) named McCain and 19% Joe the Plumber."

Rasmussen polls about "issues" are so crazy. They sound like pure right-wing push polls.

===================================

The funny thing is that on the same day that Rasmussen releases his "Joe the Plumber" findings Obama goes back up to 6% lead over McCain. Isn't funny?

This Ras' always "stirring up" the glass. Oh boy....I think he needs to give hope to McCain supporters :-)!!!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Incumbent

Yeah you are right about AZ going blue, it is all the morons in Phoenix. Here in Tucson there is a lot of Obama support but we make up a small percentage of the total population compared to L.A. East.

What did you end up getting your degree in?

____________________

Ryguy:

yeah, sorry again about that oneangrydwarf. i misread your post.

i saw that interview with bachmann live and it scared the bejesus out of me.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Rybuy

Yeah me too, that is one scary bitch. I believe that MNLatteLiberal actually lives in her district. I sent money to her opponent and I would like nothing better than to get that particular Christian Dominionist out of our government.

____________________

Incumbent:

Umm, uhh, English Literature. (blushing) It's particularly funny when you consider that now I'm an accountant.

I miss Tucson quite often, though I do get back 1-2 times a year to see the family. Not acclimated to the heat anymore so I won't go in the summer!

Anyway, I'm off to start my day. Take care!

____________________

carl29:

OneAngryDwarf,

Michele Bachmann? This is one of the most stupid people I've ever seen. She had a pretty "easy" race, and then, there she goes to put her foot in her mouth. Now, her opponent got half a million dollars in 24 hours, money ready to combat her. I must say that I am one of those who sent Mr. El T. $100 to kick her buttocks :-)!!!!

I heard that this morning she was backtracking on her rethoric against Obama. Too late, sweetie :-)!!!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@carl29

I wish I was in MN just so I could vote against her. I'd be phone banking and knocking on every door I could find with a DVD of the Countdown interview juxtaposed with some of Joe McCarthy's finer moments, just so people can see the relationship.

Ugh, this is where we are at in 2008. I hope she goes down in a big stinking crater this year or I'll have to find a way to work against her in 2010.

____________________

carl29:

Incumbent, you are an accountant? I am an accountant too, although I don't practice at the moment because I'm attending Law School. Good to know that you are a "colleague."

____________________

johncoz:

@kiptin

1. A general point about stratified polling, using this one as an example. The overall MOE is about 3%, but split into 3 income groups it rises to around 5.5%, or more (I don't have access to the crosstabs, so I can't do a precise calc for you).

2. In addition to sampling error, such stratification is also highly susceptible to coverage bias that is very hard to correct for.

2. Issues/attitude surveys are very sensitive to question bias. In the case of this question, they were given three alternatives: Joe the plumber, McCain and Obama, in that order. Now that is actually preposterous when you think about it, since the choices are not commensurable.

3. Nonetheless the overall figure was Joe 19%, McCain 29%, Obama 44%, and 8% don't know.

This is the sort of thing Pew tends to do well, with very large samples and careful methodology. Rasmussen, not so much.

____________________

coyote52:

From the time that I first came across this site, just after labor day, until today, I have always figured "Boomshak" was just another typical angry bully from the right; trying to twist and spin things the way he wanted, and basically believing that anybody who was to the left of Rudy Giuliani was a communist.

But today, when he pronounced General Colin Powell "a douche" after Powell's impassioned, deeply considered, thoughtful and powerful endorsement of Obama, I realized that Boomshak is just putting everybody on.

There is no way anybody intelligent enough to be able to turn on a computer really believes the horsesh*t this guy posts.


____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Actually, coyote52, boom**** reminds me of some of the thugs that various political parties (and sometimes religious thugs) throughout history have employed. They take party philosophy to the absurd limit, and then try to bully everyone else into that belief system.

It's not just one political extreme that has used it, but partisans on both the right and left, and all stripes in between. The type of actions that boom**** emulates usually end up in a dictatorship of some type, be it a dictatorship of the left (the USSR or PRC), the right (Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, etc.), non-specific as in Burma (now 'Myanmar'), or a religious state, of which Iran is one of, if not THE, current best example.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Boom:I also heard that they did not even let Palin see a script before she went on."

Actually CNN has reported that the McCain campaign did see the scripts, and nixxed a number that they felt would put Palin in a bad light. I guess that they thought the two acceptable ones...with Alec Baldwin dissing her (i.e. liberal Hollywood type) and then saying she was "hotter in real life") was actually good for her. The other one...the Eskimo Rap, supposedly showed Palin could be hip...and might peel off young voters in the hip-hop community.

Sort of like Nixon going on "Laugh In". Remember "Sock It Toooo, Meeeee!" That improved his street cred immensely.

____________________

carl29:

Listen up guys... the Michele Bachmann "saga" doesn't stop:

"Bachmann’s 'anti-American' remarks prompt write-in candidacy of GOP’s Immelman"

Now, another Republican is also challenging her, as if she didn't have enough with El Tinklenberg's anew campaign. I told you, this woman is just a disgrace. The DCCC is using her video for a fundraising drive to fill the coffers of Democratic challengers across the country. I got the email this morning and saw the video again. Man, I had to send $25 to the DCCC. Every time I see that woman my blood boils.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"The RNC's 'Danny Diaz' was just on MSNBC stating that (paraphrasing) "people are calling in to state that they didn't give money to the Obama campaign, but their credit card was hit for a contribution."

Well maybe they should take that card away from their college-age kids or their wife...

Or are they claiming that their card was stolen...and this is the first time that they've noticed transactions that were dubious? And that the thieves ONLY made transactions to the Obama campaign?

LOL! Some credit card thief is not gonna waste his time going through the Obama campaign website to make a contribution, They're gonna be out using that card to get high ticket items.

Either these people are idiots, need to talk to others with accfess to their card...or they are liars.

____________________

shirefox:

Like most trolls, boomshak thrives on attention.

____________________

carl29:

Breaking News!!!!

"Tinklenberg hits $620,000 in donations"

Thank You, Rep. Michele Bachmann :-)!!!!!!!!

____________________

Observer:

Today's trackers

Gallop (Trad) +3 (O up 1)
Zogby.............+3 (M up 1)
Rasmussen.....+6 (O up 1)
IBD/TIPP.......+5 (M up 2)
Hotline...........+7 (no change)
Kos.................+7 (no change)

As you were really. Lead is now Obama +5 with no obvious outliers either way.

McCain it seems needs to run faster and faster every week just to say level according to Rasmussen. Once again they have announced a small increase in their Dem sample:

Next Week: 39.7 Dem/33.0 Rep
This Week: 39.3 Dem/33.0 Rep
10/6 Week: 39.0 Dem/33.3 Rep
9/30 Week: 39.0 Dem/33.5 Rep
9/23 Week: 39.0 Dem/33.6 Rep
9/16 Week: 38.7 Dem/33.6 Rep

This is just odd. By any reckoning McCain has reduced Obama's lead from 1/2 weeks ago yet Rasmussen respond by continuing to increase the Dem sample! Rasmussen pro-Republican? Not on these figures. Has he changed his spots or is he overcompensating?

It seems to me that the changes in Dem/Rep are a lagging indicator of Obama's recent surge. Interesting to see how the Obama lead on Rasmussen has not strayed very far from the Dem/Rep polling advantage. Rasmussen seems to be getting out exactly what he puts into his poll. If there is a late surge by either side, say in the last week Rasumssen might not pick it up since it might mean a jump up or down in the Dem/Rep identification as well.

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