Pollster.com

Holding steady!

Obama at +50 in Ras = not even worth having a conversation.

it is tightning... McCain hasn't lost yet...

Looks like a good Obama falling off. However, weekly avgs look good with O still holding at 51 and McCain stuck at 45.

10/5-11 O-51.14 M-44.47 (D +6.57)
10/12-18 O-50.14 M-45.29 (D +4.86)
10/19-25 O-51.14 M-45.14 (D +6)
10/26-27 O-51.50 M-45 (D+6.5)

I Would feel better if O were ahead by more, but I'll take it. Every day that JM does not show meaningfull improvement is a great day for Obama. Today may be just an allright day for Obama. There does seem to be some tightening going on.

Rock solid.

My guess is that the Obama campaign forsaw this. The half hour TV spot on Wednesday is to provide some momentum going into Election Day. Gallup indicates 17 percent of registered voters already have cast ballots, and Zogby says his data suggest Obama enjoys a commanding lead in the early balloting.

DCD, indeed they did. A "tightening" race was always expected and predicted. (although I'm still not convinced that's actually happening).

Here's some red meat for you, trolls. As you see, people are loonies on both sides. While I follow this polling stuff way too much, it doesn't make me psychotic..

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJkOGI1MjZjZDdjYjBmNWRiZTQ2ZDAyMTZhZTI5M2I

Awesome! Other than that Obama bump up to +8 over the weekend, this red pollster has been amazingly consistent over the last month. The Obama support hasn't wavered much at all when looking at the big picture. Steady as she goes...

Hotline unchanged: O50, M42

I keep looking for this "McCain momentum" some people talk about and you can't find it anywhere.

What is it that the boom****s of the world do not understand about 50-52 percent vs 44-46 percent, and that is without mentioning the vast differences between the ground games.

Is anyone worried about this sort of analysis?

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/756hfpns.asp

maddie.. I don't even bother arguing it. I'm part of it here in South FL, so I see it in action. I also see the other side, and I can tell you, it's night and day in terms of action and enthusiasm. Now, at the end of the day is it enough to totally offset all the old fart McCain absentee ballots and the built in anti-Democratic sentiment in the Cuban-American community? No. But.. it is enough for a push of at least 2, maybe 3 points. And that, as you know, can be decisive.

drudge has a second recording up this morning, in addition to the one where obama says the warren court wasnt radical enough in that they didnt go so far as to redistribute wealth.

this time, hes saying that the constitution reflects a flaw in our society. interesting how all these are popping up one week before the election

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=11OhmY1obS4
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=11OhmY1obS4

Northern, I would perhaps if the article didn't make the absurd point of comparing Reagan to McCain. Yea.. they're both old. But undecided and independents LIKED Reagan. They found him endearing. McCain has shredded his likability with his debates, ads, etc. There might be a fear-factor anti-Obama vote out there but it will not combine with a sudden enthusiasm for McCain. It's just not there.

If O can keep it at 4-5 points through election day here he is in good shape. Ras's weekly Monday poll dump ought to be interesting. If Gramps is coming on in VA and CO then I will be concerned that the race is tightening to the point were McCain could win the electoral college. My fear is that things tighten to Obama ahead by 1 or 2 and then McCain pulls out VA, CO and NV, and wins by a narrow margin in the electoral college. November 4th can't come soon enough.

Here is what I see thus far.

One week ago from today:

RAS 10/20 - O +4
RAS Today - O +5

KOS 10/20 - O +8
KOS Today - O +8

Hotline 10/20 - O +5
Hotline Today: -O +8

Sure, Obama got a higher bounce throughout the week that boosted his average and the numbers are now moving back to the mean, but I don't see how this translates to good news thus far for McCain when looking at the big picture, especially when you start looking at state polls.

I won't be too concerned unless we see Obama's numbers start to dip below 50% by the end of the week.

@NorthernObserver

All the most reliable polls have Obama above the threshold of 50% so even McOld got 80% of the undecideds it's very unlikely that's gonna put him over the top
Having said that, anything can happen and if McCain is counting on undecideds at this time of the race that means he's really in deep trouble

@ boom&KipTinSUCK:

I think you are correct, but on top of that it looks like Obama is doing great in NC, NV and NM.The early voting numbers in those States are very good, and they are aproching one third of the total vote

SoloBJ

Also the GW Battleground Poll one week ago was O 49 and McCain 47 = O +1

9 days to go guys :-)

The Republicans are throwing everything they've got, will it stick? We'll see

It's getting wild out there :-)!!!!

Solo, I won't be concerned at all unless VA, CO, IA, NM, and NH start to corroborate any McCain "surge." Right now, that's just not happening.. in fact it seems to be going the other way. I'm not even counting on OH, FL, Mo, or NC. That's all gravy right now.. and if McCain loses ANY of those he's toast anyway, and those are all 50/50 at best right now. Don't be fooled by the trolls. You don't have Palin bucking the ticket and all the McCain campaign rats jumping ship because they think they're within striking distance.

Can't wait for this election to be over.
My obsession with polls (esp. once I found out about this site a few weeks ago) is really annoying my husband.
I wonder, is anyone really listening any more to the feces being flung around? In the past week I received two "scary" Republican mailings about Obama - the terrorist pal and one about something else I don't remember. Those things went into the recyclables quickly, along with the usual pile of junk mail.

The Obama camp has been game-planning this week for 2 years. They know full well what they have to do to close this thing out. They have to sense that they are in better shape than they could ever have imagined, with a consistent lead in the polls for a month, at or above the 50% threshold in most polls, and competitive in states like IN, MT and AZ.

Obama + 11, another VA poll.

http://www.commonwealthpoll.vcu.edu/CPOLL-Pres-Sen-Race-report-10-26-08.pdf

@NorthernObserver,

The article you link really makes *two* points---it has to in order to back up the contention that McCain is likely to take the undecided vote. The other point is that likely voter models have to be expanded somewhat. If one does that, and then gives the undecided vote to McCain, he loses by around 6-7 points. Here are the relevant paragraphs, for those who want them:

"The analysis suggests that both effects were at work during the primaries. When one controls for the size of the Obama-enthusiast population, Obama basically gets what the pre-primary polls said he would get ("The Social Effect"), but when one looks at the actual result, it is clear that it is highly dependent on the size of the Obama-enthusiast population.

For pollsters, it suggests the need to get a better handle on measuring likely turnout among groups of highly enthusiastic voters, especially if they come from groups that have not turned out in high numbers in the past. Historical "likely
voter" screens which focus on a respondent's voting history/knowledge, may be very ineffective this year. It suggests that pollsters should be more open about what kinds of voters--especially first time voters--are in their likely voter screens.

It also suggests that as the election winds down, one should look less at the difference between Obama and McCain, and more at the actual number that Obama is getting in the polls."

carl29:

"9 days to go guys :-)"

What?, this is the first time I disagree with you
it's not 9 days it's 7 days and 14 hours, yes I am even counting hours and even minutes cause I can't take 9 more days of spin and insane comments coming from those nasty Republicans

@NorthernObserver

Note there is a simpler hypothesis explaining the behavior of late deciders in the Bloomberg, Clinton, and Carter cases: late deciders in all those cases broke against the incumbent. This "social acceptance" theory does not appear to be necessary, and indeed seems fairly arbitrary to me (how do you tell who is more "socially acceptable"? Was Carter really more "socially accpetable" than Reagan? Or even Clinton than Dole?).

Excuse Carl.. us here in FL still have PTSD over 2000 and I guess he's banking on 2 days of recounts and legal challenges before it's official. =)

If Obama wins VA by a large margin, election night will be short. By the time the polls close in CA many wil be drunk in the East coast

fed.. I'll be halfway in the tank by then no matter what.

@Trosen,
carl29 is a she, but other than that :))))

Barring tectonic shifts in the election, Obama has pretty much wrapped up Kerry + IA + NM with the lone possibility of NH being in play.

The pollster composite for Obama's numbers in VA (51.3 vs 43.7, O +7.6) and CO (51.3 vs. 44.6, O+6.7) are similar to his national numbers (50.8 vs. 43.5, O+7.3). Getting it close is unlikely therefore to result in a McCain victory, even if NH goes to McCain.

If Obama wins Kerry - NH + (IA, VA, and NM) he wins outright.

There really aren't very many scenarios for McCain, if Obama can hold VA, and the latest polls there can't be giving McCain much hope.

Where is boomsuckingsound?

Too much air in this forum, too much light. Something isn't right here.

@Trosen,

I am also a "victim" in Florida as well. There is not greater electoral tragedy than being a Democratic voter in Florida. So, I share your concern as well. I already voted, early voting of course, have you voted Trosen?

@boom&KipTinSUCK,

I know what you mean. It really ticks me off all the mudslinging from the Republicans. Fortunately, soon all this will be over :-)

Thanks for the thoughtful responses, folks. I'd like to see some state polls now, and I think I'd especially like to see something out of AZ. :-)

One thing not mentioned in that piece is that the Obama enthusiasts, AA voters etc, will have much less impact in the General Election than they did in the Democratic Primaries simply because they form a smaller percentage of a much larger voting population.

It isn't just the addition of right, conservative, Republican voters to the mix. It is the addition of a substantial percentage of voters who only really turn out at Presidential elections. By definition these people are not political enthusiasts.

On the other hand I think it is valid to expect McCain to take the majority of the undecided vote, party for the reasons given in that piece. Also we need to recognise that AA voters and enthusiasts generally are already decided. Their turnout might be greater than before, it might not, but they are not undecided.

carl.. sorry about the gender mixup. I voted bright and early Monday morning at the Lemon City library (Biscayne and 63d). Only about a 20 minute wait.. You said you voted at the CG Library right? I'm glad I got that out of the way to now devote free time to GOTV drives and such. And I have all of election day off so I plan on doing everything I can. I also went to the Obama rally on Tuesday...

Al Giordano has another take: It will be very difficult for McCain to win any state where Obama is at or above 50% in the polls. Kerry - RI(!) + IA, VA, CO, and NM are all at or above 50%. Rhode Island is not above 50% only due to lack of polling. The 50%+ states gives Obama 282 EVs and a win.

Ras has a poll from Arizona coming out at noon. So in an hour we will see if those 2 polls yesterday were accurate or not.

@kc_in_MN,
LOL. I am fully with you on that. I said in another post yesterday that I feel like I've become "poll obsessed" too since finding this site and can't wait until the election is over. My husband is annoyed as well with my daily comments/review on the polls. I try not to make it a central topic of discussion throughout the day.

@NorthernObserver

Another thing:
Their analysis is based on undecideds and those undecideds are known based on polls, right?

The problem with this analysis is as of today according to pollster.com and even RCP Obama wins a bunch of states (except OHIO) with 286 EV where he has more 50% so even McOld has 90% that's not gonna save him
Obviously based on polls

@Observer

I would respectfully disagree with you on your point about AA voters in this election. Most AA voters are not "highly enthusiastic" after years of electoral neglect. This year they are coming out in record number, largely because of the Obama GOTV and most of that is because Team O has had an ongoing presence in these battleground states for months.

That means he can generate a large percentage of voters that didn't show in the Primaries. If you don't believe me ask Chuck Todd.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/chuck-todd-african-americ_n_137928.html

Historic numbers of people that generally don't vote showing up is going to move the needle.

Oops. Left out the link:

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/eight-more-days-fifty-percent-threshold

I am not making any predictions because I don't want to end up with egg on my face. However, I have the "gut feeling" that some polls are underestimating Obama support. Anyway, we'll see guys, are you excited? Me is :-)

Yawn. Obama up 1 point from 1 week ago in Ras. Now for what matters - The electoral college.

** VIRGINIA **

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/26 -- -- 51.6 43.9 Obama +7.7

Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 52 45 Obama +7
Washington Post 10/22 - 10/25 784 LV 3.5 52 44 Obama +8
VCU 10/20 - 10/22 817 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 647 LV 4.0 54 44 Obama +10
SurveyUSA 10/18 - 10/19 652 LV 3.9 51 45 Obama +6
Rasmussen 10/16 - 10/16 700 LV 3.0 54 44 Obama +10
Winthrop/ETV 09/28 - 10/19 665 LV 3.8 45 44 Obama +1
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 698 LV 3.5 53 43 Obama +10
CNU Virginia Poll 10/11 - 10/14 500 LV 4.4 53 47 Obama +6
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 3.0 50 47 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/06 - 10/07 917 LV 3.2 51 43 Obama +8
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 3.0 50 48 Obama +2
SurveyUSA 10/04 - 10/05 666 LV 3.9 53 43 Obama +10
Suffolk 10/03 - 10/05 600 LV -- 51 39 Obama +12

** NEVADA**

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/26 -- -- 49.0 45.5 Obama +3.5

Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 48 44 Obama +4
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 700 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Politico/InAdv 10/19 - 10/19 690 LV 3.6 47 47 Tie
Rasmussen 10/16 - 10/16 700 LV 4.0 50 45 Obama +5
InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 506 LV 4.0 49 46 Obama +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 10/08 - 10/09 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
InAdv/PollPosition 10/06 - 10/06 468 LV 5.0 49 47 Obama +2
Reno Gazette-Journal 10/03 - 10/06 600 LV 4.0 50 43 Obama +7
Rasmussen 10/02 - 10/02 700 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4

** OHIO **

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/26 -- -- 49.9 43.9 Obama +6.0

Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
PPP (D) 10/21 - 10/23 993 LV 3.1 51 44 Obama +7
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 408 LV 5.0 52 42 Obama +10
Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/18 - 10/22 886 LV 3.3 49 46 Obama +3
Strategic Vision (R) 10/20 - 10/22 1200 LV 3.0 45 48 McCain +3
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 564 LV 4.2 53 41 Obama +12
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 737 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 4.0 47 49 McCain +2
Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/21 1360 LV 2.7 52 38 Obama +14
Suffolk 10/17 - 10/19 600 LV 4.0 51 42 Obama +9
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/16 - 10/17 625 LV 4.0 45 46 McCain +1
Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/14 700 LV 4.0 49 49 Tie
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/13 575 LV 4.2 50 45 Obama +5
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 3.0 49 47 Obama +2
InAdv/PollPosition 10/09 - 10/09 509 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
Marist 10/05 - 10/08 771 LV 3.5 49 45 Obama +4
Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/04 - 10/08 876 LV 3.0 46 48 McCain +2
Strategic Vision (R) 10/06 - 10/08 1200 LV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2
ARG 10/04 - 10/07 600 LV 4.0 48 45 Obama +3
CNN/Time 10/03 - 10/06 749 LV 3.5 50 47 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 3.0 47 48 McCain +1
PPP (D) 10/04 - 10/05 1239 LV 2.8 49 43 Obama +6
ABC News/Wash Post 10/03 - 10/05 772 LV 3.5 51 45 Obama +6

** NORTH CAROLINA **

RCP Average 10/18 - 10/26 -- -- 48.8 47.3 Obama +1.5

Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 50 46 Obama +4
Rasmussen 10/23 - 10/23 700 LV 4.0 48 50 McCain +2
WSOC-TV 10/20 - 10/21 500 LV 4.4 48 46 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 644 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/18 - 10/20 627 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
Politico/InAdv 10/19 - 10/19 698 LV 3.6 49 48 Obama +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.0 51 48 Obama +3
Winthrop/ETV 09/28 - 10/19 744 LV 3.6 45 44 Obama +1
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/18 - 10/20 600 RV 4.2 48 45 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/19 1200 LV 2.8 51 44 Obama +7
Research 2000 10/14 - 10/15 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 474 LV 5.0 48 46 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie
PPP (D) 10/11 - 10/12 1196 LV 2.8 49 46 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/08 - 10/08 700 LV 3.0 49 48 Obama +1
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV -- 48 43 Obama +5
WSOC-TV 10/06 - 10/07 500 LV 4.5 46 48 McCain +2
SurveyUSA 10/05 - 10/06 617 LV 4.0 46 49 McCain +3
CNN/Time 10/03 - 10/06 666 LV 4.0 49 49 Tie
PPP (D) 10/04 - 10/05 1202 LV 2.8 50 44 Obama +6

** FLORIDA **

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/26 -- -- 47.7 45.8 Obama +1.9

Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 603 LV 4.1 47 47 Tie
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 562 LV 5.0 48 47 Obama +1
Strategic Vision (R) 10/20 - 10/22 1200 LV 3.0 46 48 McCain +2
St. Petersburg Times 10/20 - 10/22 800 RV 3.5 49 42 Obama +7
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 625 LV 4.0 45 46 McCain +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.0 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/21 1433 LV 2.6 49 44 Obama +5
PPP (D) 10/16 - 10/19 1158 LV 2.9 48 47 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/16 - 10/16 553 LV 4.3 47 49 McCain +2
Research 2000 10/13 - 10/15 600 LV 4.0 49 45 Obama +4
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 765 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 612 LV 3.8 48 44 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 3.0 51 46 Obama +5
Research 2000 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
Rasmussen 10/08 - 10/08 700 LV 4.0 50 47 Obama +3
Strategic Vision (R) 10/06 - 10/08 1200 LV 3.0 52 44 Obama +8
Mason-Dixon 10/04 - 10/06 625 LV 4.0 48 46 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 3.0 52 45 Obama +7

** COLORADO **

RCP Average 10/11 - 10/23 -- -- 51.3 44.8 Obama +6.5

Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 10/21 - 10/23 500 LV 4.4 52 40 Obama +12
InsiderAdvantage 10/20 - 10/20 576 LV 4.0 51 46 Obama +5
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.0 51 46 Obama +5
Rasmussen 10/16 - 10/16 700 LV 4.0 52 45 Obama +7
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 762 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
Suffolk 10/10 - 10/13 600 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 10/08 - 10/12 1088 LV 3.0 52 43 Obama +9
PPP (D) 10/08 - 10/10 1331 LV 2.7 52 42 Obama +10
InAdv/PollPosition 10/06 - 10/06 485 LV 5.0 51 45 Obama +6
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 3.0 51 45 Obama +6

** MISSOURI **

RCP Average 10/17 - 10/26 -- -- 47.0 46.0 Obama +1.0

SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 672 LV 3.9 48 48 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 48 46 Obama +2
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/22 - 10/23 625 LV 4.0 45 46 McCain +1
Post-Dispatch/R2000 10/20 - 10/23 800 LV 3.5 48 47 Obama +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Suffolk 10/17 - 10/19 600 LV 4.0 44 45 McCain +1
Rasmussen 10/15 - 10/15 700 LV 4.5 52 46 Obama +6
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 763 LV 3.5 48 49 McCain +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 3.0 50 47 Obama +3
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/12 546 LV 4.3 51 43 Obama +8
PPP (D) 10/11 - 10/12 1009 LV 3.1 48 46 Obama +2
ARG 10/04 - 10/06 600 LV 4.0 46 49 McCain +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 3.0 50 47 Obama +3

Is it ME or can anyone else NOT see an electoral path for Grandpa?

Observer, that's a fair point, but when you look at the weightings and some of the "traditional" models, they assume not a damn thing has changed demographically since 2004. So, new cell-phone only voters, newly registered youth and AA, early voters, that all gets tossed out. And even if that only translates to 1 or 2 points for Obama, that is still potentially huge in places like OH, FL, NC, GA, etc.

With regard to undecided voters, I'd like to assert the Palin Chaos Theroy. That is to say that Palin is not qualified and she's bat **** crazy. I think there is a contingent of voters out there, independent and republican, that do understand country first. That understanding will lead them to reason the possibility of a Palin presidency should McPain be elected. They find that scary and unacceptable.

+5 down from +8 is a bit scary. I really hope that is noise...

Sorry about the typo on previous post.

************************************************************
WOO HOO !!!! 3 POLLS OUT OF VA.
************************************************************
Virginia Reuters/Zogby Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7

Virginia Washington Post Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8

Virginia VCU Obama 51, McCain 40 Obama +11

Let's see VA, CO, NM, IA, NH + Kerry states =

President Obama +

If Sydney takes NC which is still (O+4), FL (even), NV (O+4, MO (even) and OH (O+2) he is still waaaay behind.

Unless of course you give him PA which is (O+13). And then Sydney just looses by a few.

8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1....HOPE, PROGRESS

@MileHigh

Lucky for you this is a numbers site and not a literature blog. Of course if this site and the election had anything to do with proper english grammar Sarah Palin would have been disqualified months ago.

decided,

I think that this has a lot to do with pollsters trying to be on the same page with Gallup(traditional) model. What sounds better, "we blew it" or "I blew it"? No one wants to be the odd person in the room :-)

EVERYONE DAMN IT!

Please don't waste time any longer. Work the phones. Get involved in getting out the vote. Let's work on the Democratic margin in Congress to maximize it. The state-level results all are exactly where they need to be, if not even better. The only question is whether we can put enough Democrats into the Congress so that Obama can accomplish the progress needed for this nation or fail on his own. For what it's worth, I'm outta here for good, and I'm spending all the time and energy I can on the phone, and if I were mobile, I'd be in Ohio trying to counteract the voter suppression efforts in full force there. As my hero, Biden says, Ladies and Gentlemen! Let's get up and get outta here and fight where it matters.

mandalorianarmy,

The AZ ras poll will lilely be one of those stupid one-day polls, done yesterday, with all the old farts sitting at home. So expect it to be a good lead for McCain. Regarless, AZ is not going blue. But it is fun to see some tight polls there.

Anyone on the right-wing want to give us the route to 270 Electoral College votes that McLameBrain has?

What states will he win, those states adding up to 270 EC votes?

Name them, or STFU.

And if you include Pennsylvania in that route to 270, tell us how he's going to win the state, when the composite polling on Pollster.com currently shows him down by 12.7 points in Pennsylvania, and has shown him down by double digits every day for several consecutive weeks.

Obama's route:

'Kerry states' (without NH, the weakest of the 'Kerry state'), plus Iowa, plus Virginia gives him 268. Add ANY state, and he's over 270. Add just New Hampshire, and he's at 272. Add just New Mexico, and he's at 273. Add just Colorado and he's at 277. Add just North Carolina and he's at 283. Add just Ohio and he's at 288. Add just Florida and he's at 289. And there are several more states where he's in the lead to some extent.

If Obama wins the 'Kerry states', including NH, he needs just Iowa and Virginia, or Iowa and New Mexico plus one more state, or Iowa and North Carolina, or Iowa and Ohio, or Iowa and Florida, or ..., or ..., or ..., etc., etc., etc.

Sorry, right-wingers. McLameBrain will have to draw four cards to a Royal Flush to have the remotest chance of sweeping all the states he needs to win the 270 EC votes to win this election.

Again, show us the route, or STFU.

Rassmussen AZ already leaked out

51-46 McCain

Will McCain start doing a push to stop 60 in the Senate dance here real soon? It looks like the poll numbers for Obama are stable above 50% and they have been that way for months.

He's getting pounded on the ground, though I doubt we'll see a Roberto Durand out of him (no mas) and Obama is going to go on PRIMETIME all by his lonesome just so voters can get to know him this week. That also means that O will eat up an inordinate amount of mid/late week news cycles, just less of a chance for old John to get his message out.

Are we going to see Bob Dole 2.0 in this campaign or is John going down with the ship and taking as many Republicans with him as he can?

Some blue light shining through even here in red TN. Nashville/Davidson County is dark blue; even the normally red donut counties are close.

Oops, forgot the poll link:

http://tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081026/NEWS0206/810260399

Wow only up 5 in RAS AZ? McCain's screwed.

No doubt that McCain will carry AZ, but the margin will be pretty embarassing for him, compared to Obama's margin in IL.

OneAngryDwarf:

I thought if that was going to happen it would happen by now. I think the old man is going down with the ship (no disrespectful Navy pun intended) And with that (unless you see some major tightening battleground state polls in the next few days) you'll see more defections, infighting, and chaos within the GOP ranks.

If AZ is close, NM is a complete lock for Obama.

@DTM,

Yes, you're quite right. The "social acceptance" hypothesis seems silly to me too.

JCK, NM was never really in doubt. Bill Richardson's got it on lockdown.

A third poll from VA,

SurveyUSA: Obama 52% McCain 43%

Looks like McCain will go after Obama for comments made in that 2001 video.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/mccain-to-attac.html

Every pall fluctuates a bit but no tectonic movement in any of them. The VERY GOOD news for me is that VA is basically blue!. This means McCain has NO PATH to victory (except flipping PA red, but me and my state buddies are flipping McCain something else!)

Three polls out of VA today:

SurveyUSA: Obama 52% McCain 43%
Zogby: Obama 52% McCain 45%
VCU: Obama 51% McCain 40%

carl.. the writing is on the wall in VA. CO too. It's no coincidence McCain is trying for a miracle in PA.

Anyone have that link to the Rasmussen AZ stuff?

McCain's brother referring to northern Virginians as communists, Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama, and McCain surrogates spewing nonsense about "real" Virginians are gaffes that clearly have hurt McCain's standing in the great state of VA (sorry, Commonwealth).

TuftsPat, I don't think it's publicly posted yet. Someone with a premium Rasmussen membership posted it in a comment on another site.

@dwarf

Duran, not Durand.

SUSA

49 0
45 M

Indiana.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=03d2575c-2264-4ae8-93db-e71692ec846e

Praise Jesus.

That's not the only Ras poll coming out today that won't be pretty for McCain.

Obamageddon?
Christian nuts are freaking out!

"With polls showing Barack Obama pulling ahead of John McCain in the US presidential race, the Republican party's hard-right evangelical allies are starting to panic. As the political elites in the movement freak out, they're sowing the seeds of grassroots anxiety that God will punish America for electing Obama.

Theodicy lies at the heart of the evangelical right's political strategy: Christians must perpetually engage in spiritual warfare with Satan, and take dominion over governmental and legal institutions. God will be pleased then; but if these Christian soldiers fail to vanquish Satan, God won't be happy at all. Chaos ensues: socialism, Bible burning, abortions in public schools, boy scouts forced into homosexuality!

Religious-right honchos are girding the troops for political apocalypse. Townhall magazine, owned by Salem Communications, one of the largest Christian broadcasters in the country, ran a September feature, "Obamageddon: Could We Survive a Barack Presidency?" This month evangelical publishing giant Stephen Strang, whose magazine Charisma endorsed McCain, predicted that "life as we know it will end if Obama is elected." Last week, the political arm of James Dobson's Focus on the Family sent out a "Letter from 2012 in Obama's America", a 16-page (pdf) parade of horribles, and talk radio show host Janet Porter imagined that Christians will be imprisoned with Obama in the Oval Office."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2008/oct/27/religion-evangelical-obama

Solo:

McCain can do that, but all it's going to do is to give Obama a chance to explain how important the democratic/legislative process is (as opposed to hoping that judges will legislate).

Plus, the Obama campaign has lots of dirt on McCain that it can leak if necessary. For evidence, see the recent McCain biographic article in Rolling Stone.

@MileHigh

See what I mean about this not being a site for English Majors.

SoloBJ

McLiar can only cry wolf so many times! McCain already has the Drudge and Fox voters wrapped up.

mystic.. ouch! And only about 3% undecided in that poll.

Geez what's it take to make NH dark blue? I guess two tenths of a point, huh?

@ trosen.

Sorry that was an old poll from end of last week. I shouldn't have posted it.

At this point, my assumption is that Obama will win the "Kerry States" (including NH) plus IA & NM; that seems pretty safe.

That means ANY additional red state gives it to Obama -- although if it's Nevada, then it's a 269-269 tie.

It would be interesting to see some polling in the Corporate Republic of Texas.

It is really funny that the McCain campaign tried unsuccessfully bring Obama down with the terrorist charges, but somehow they will achieve it with the socialist tag? I can picture Americans thinking to themselves: "I can live with Obama being a terrorist/terrorist simpathizer, threating to blow the country, but no way a socialist spreading the wealth around." :-)

With VA moving into "Solid Obama" territory, McCain's possible paths to victory are very, very narrow.

Two reasonable scenarios, which are both long shots:

Nate Silver:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10252008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/mccains__long__road_to_electoral_win_135233.htm

Requires that McCain wins VA, CO, NM, and NH and the rest of the so-called swing states (FL, OH, MO, IN, NV, NC) in addition to the "red" states.

The PA strategy:

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/panic-room-whats-mccains-pennsylvania-gambit

Requires flipping PA. This strategy would allow McCain to lose NH, CO, NM, and VA and still win, assuming he retains OH, FL, NC, IN, and MO. Is one long shot (PA), better than several "short" shots? Perhaps.

Looks like McCain is driving the bus now.

And running it off the bridge.

southern angler:
"Looks like McCain is driving the bus now."

The short bus I guess.. the one that also takes all the congressional GOP hopefuls over the cliff with him if he keeps dicking around in PA and IA while the rest of the party flounders. Keep driving that bus John!

@carl29

I think people have just started to tune-out the McCain campaign. Doesn't really matter what they say at this point voters have made up their minds one way or another.

Besides anyone who can't decide at this point in an election needs to get some therapy because they've got committment issues. I mean can you imagine what "undecides" must be thinking right now?

"Uh I don't know should I vote for the pedophile, terrorist, socialist black dude? Maybe I should vote for the Jesus-freak, moron lady that can't form a complete sentence? Decisions, decisions..."

southern angler yep McCain's driving the bus alright, OFF A CLIFF. VA is all but SECURE for Obama. Ohio averaging a 6 point lead. INDIANA UP! PA WAY UP. Colorado 6 point plus lead... NH WAY UP... NM, IA... FL UP on average, NC up on average. What are you smoking exactly?

Is there a link to the SUSA VA poll?

OH NO! MCCAIN's going after Obama on something. IMAGINE THAT. Once again the old **** doesn't get it. Indpendents have been waiting to hear WHAT MCCAIN WILL DO..and he continues to bitch and bitch about Obama. The man is too old and out of touch to be president. He reminds me alof of Bush, never listening to anyone just doing and saying what HE wants to do. It's over.

Lots of good polls coming today. Grab the popcorn.

Let's just hope McLameBrain's staffers don't lock him on the bus at night again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqV3AXjqP0w

VBG

@fed,

Here it's the link:

http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=9244278

Get ready for some post-election lawsuits and more GOP voter supression tactics to finally get the deserved scrutiny once the White House turns over. The dark days are ending soon.. None too soon.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/26/voter.suppression/index.html?iref=werecommend

PEOPLE, ARE YOU GETTING THIS?

Rasmussen is a VERY SLOW moving 3 day tracker. Even when a candidate is making a strong move, Rasmussen rarely moves more than 1 point a day.

This is a 3 POINT MOVE to McCain in one day. And this after two days with Obama ahead by 8. This means, that McCain had a VERY good night on Rasmussen Sunday. Maybe like O+2 or worse.

I cannot over-emphasize what a big deal a 3 point one day move on Rasmussen is. It just doesn't happen.

Unless Obama polls very well today (given the horrible news for him, unlikely), Rasmussen will likely go to +3 tomorrow with Obama below 50%.

This 2001 audio tape of Obama espousing socialism is gonna sting.

Grandpa PLEASE continue to talk about Obama the rest of the way and not the economy! Please talk talk talk about socialism, Ayers, etc.

Per Rasmussen:

Just 28% of voters believe that John McCain’s campaign has been helped by talking about the relationship between Barack Obama and William Ayers. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 50% believe talk of that issue has hurt McCain’s effort while 15% say it has had no impact.

Trosen,

You have inside info? Are the slew of Ras polls today going to be excellent news for Barack Obama?

Thanks carl29

@zotz:
"Obamageddon?
Christian nuts are freaking out!"

Perhaps as we move toward 2012 and all the doom and gloom predicted by these fundamentalist fail to come true, they will finally be seen as the fearmongering, hate loving, lunatic fringe that they are.

Or maybe not. They want to believe that stuff.

carl.. good poll. Only 2% undecided. Warner kicking butt. Jim Webb and Tim Kaine working overtime to GOTV. Looking good.

boomshak YAWN. LOL Obama is up 1 point from 1 week ago per Rasmussen. That is +1 over a week. But hey, we'll let you wish. What will you say next Monday when Rasmussen still has Obama up 5 or more?

one more week of insane comments
can't wait

Trosen,

Just the fact that a Democrat has turned VA into a battleground state is just amazing. Polls are just a reflection of the hard work and resources the Obama campaign have put in the state. From the Democratic standpoint this is fantastic news :-)!!!!

NW,

Next Monday (like every Monday), Boom will be paying attention to the one or two polls that are telling him what he wants to hear. The rest will be dismissed.

LET'S JUST ELIMINATE ANY CONSIDERATION OF BULLSH*T SUSA POLLS RIGHT NOW OK?

In poll after poll, SUSA has given Democrats HUGE, REDICULOUS sampling advantages. The polls are complete BS and Dem propaganda.

P.S., I'm still waiting for an explanation from an Obama supporters as to how we "build the economy from the people up..."

I honestly do not see how that is feasible and "the people" cannot pay themselves salaries.

Obama is still higher overall in the tracking polls than he was a week ago. Is it possible that Obama got a one or two point mini-bounce from the Powell endorsement that is now receding?

@boomshak,

What happened with you yesterday? I was pretty "concerned." Good to know that you are OK :-)

get ready to party

developing...

Boom complaining about Dem sampling advantages in 2008 is like Kerry supporters complaining that polls ignored cell-phone-only voters in 2004.

@JCK:

DailyKos one day - O+5 down from O+14 (and this is with their silly 26% Republican sample).
GWU/Battleground - O+3
Rasmussen - O+5 (down from O+8 the day earlier which means likely O+2 or worse Sunday).
Zogby - O+4.8

Every single one of these polls shows MAJOR MOVEMENT towards McCain in just a few days.

America is a center/right country and doesn't want single party rule by socialists.

Obama is in big trouble and it's only going to get worse.

The race is tightening as they always do. People's fears of change. Even when the economy is in the crapper.

Obama has built in hurdles he has to clear (Bradley effect, voters reading his middle name for the 1st time, etc.). My anaysis says Obama must be up by 5 points in most states to win. As of now he wins with 286 electoral votes, but it is getting closer and VA and other semi-repub states could swing back.

Too dad-gum close.

@carl29:

Lol, I have other things to do besides wasting mytime talking to you mind-numbed Obamabots that don't have any trouble with Obama espousing Marx.

Boom,

Why don't you throw Gallup, ABC, and Hotline in the mix as well?

Then report back.

SUSA is Dem propaganda? You are out of your gourd, they are one of the most right-down-the-middle pollsters around, although they always seem to show McCain doing better in Florida and Minnesota than any other polls. And it had the best track record of any major pollster in the primaries.

Well said Boom

@boomshak

Jesus, you are so mean. I was nice to you, asking about your health and that's the way you answer. Too bad man

@boomshak

who are companies going to make things for if the middle class has no money? the middle class drives the economy. i can have a bunch of money to make stuff that people need but if people have no money to buy it than i'm screwed. but if i have a little bit of money to make stuff people need and people have money to buy it then i can sell my product and make a profit. then make even more product by making even more money which leads to hiring even more people who can buy even more of my product. as henry ford said when asked why he paid his employees so well "so they can buy my cars." get it yet boomshak?

From an old scrap of Gazette, circa 1775:

LET'S JUST ELIMINATE ANY CONSIDERATION OF BULLSH*T SUSA POLLS RIGHT NOW OK?

In poll after poll, SUSA has given Revolutionaries HUGE, REDICULOUS [sic] sampling advantages. The polls are complete BS and Revo propaganda.

P.S., I'm still waiting for an explanation from TRAITOR supporters as to how we "build the nation from the people up..."

I honestly do not see how that is feasible and "the people" cannot govern themselves having no mandate from GOD.

God Save King George!

At noon Eastern today, new results will be posted for Arizona. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will provide new numbers for California.

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia will be released.

So another Virginia poll. Lets see whether McCain being in trouble in his home state becomes a story in the next news cycle?

Florida and Ohio whre Ras Reports are at least 2% McCain House are going to be interesting. Please also note no Cell phones, W/E polling, lower AA and 18-29 LV model - normally!

boomshak do you ever speak in facts? Could you show me the electoral path for McCain based on POLLING. This is a pollster website and we are here to talk about polls. So waiting... as usual you're a WINDBAG. We've seen this so called "tightening" before only for Obama to recover. The fact is if we end Monday with a +5 Obama lead it's a blowout no matter who the pollster. Get used to it. Barack obama the next president of the United States. Have you seen the Ohio #'s? MY GOD. It's slipping away!:) LOL

Boom
Do you believe the Phil Berg lawsuit or the new Youtube "obama the socailist" video will effect the election?

If Obama is a socialist, then Eisenhower and Nixon were far, far bigger socialists. If Republicans want to go down that road, bully for them, but it's an absolutely laughable argument when taken to its logical conclusion.

MORE SOCIALISM FROM OBAMA ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

"Now, make no mistake: the change we need won’t come easy or without cost. We will all need to tighten our belts, we will all need to sacrifice and we will all need to pull our weight because now more than ever, we are all in this together."

What does he mean by this? You all better get used to having less money because I plan to take it to pay for all my government programs to redistribute wealth!

He is teeing it up people. he will impose socialism under the guise of "taking one for the team..."

@boomslinky

Silly boom you just never took an economics class did you?

People up, hmmm how would that work. Oh yeah it works by making sure that there is a large well funded consumer base. In America we call this "the middle class." This MC has lots of money and is really large so they can "buy stuff."

This "buying stuff" means that large corporations around the world have the ability to "sell stuff." This in turn allows them to "hire people" to "make stuff." Once more people are "making stuff" then there are more people to "buy stuff." This is known as an "economy."

Or we could try more of the Supply-Side economic garbage that has driven us into the current economic nightmare, just like it did when the founder of the priniple (Ronald Reagan) espoused it in the early 1980's. It took 7 years then to blow up, it took 7 years when George W. Bush tried it. Do we really want to go back to that well again?

BTW stop asking questions you don't want to hear answers for. You don't listen anyway and you just keep asking the same questions over and over and over...

Epic FAIL!!!

boomshak if you have "better things to do" Then BEAT IT you stupid ****. Adios. Don't let the door hit you in the ass. ROFL

Every single one of these polls shows MAJOR MOVEMENT towards McCain in just a few days.

OMG!OMG!OMG!OMG! McCain is going to WIN. How could we have been so blind? Oh yeah, maybe it's ABC, Hotline, Gallup, Newsweek, Economist, SUSA, GQR, FOX, CBS, and NBC that all show a minimum Obama lead of +8. They're all in the tank for Obama, though, so they're all wrong. Only these three that actually show it a 5 point race (still a blowout) are right.

Wow. He's finally snapped totally hasn't he? Guess he's finally realized Obama's going to win.

southern angler could you EDUCATE yourself. Phil's lawsuit in PA was already THROWN OUT for lack of evidence. LOL You guys know how ****ing CRAZY you like basing your hopes on Conspiracy theories?

@boomchallened

Why does McCain keep throwing around Socialism charges?

Does he think that Warren Buffett (you know the richest man in the world) is a socialist? Why would Warren support a socialist who is going to redistribute all of his wealth?

Riddle me this boom?

Epic FAIL!!!

@huetdebd:
@boomshak

who are companies going to make things for if the middle class has no money?

And how will the middle class have money if you tax the people who create jobs and they cut back? Where will that money come from, the government? Is Obama's pathetic $500 tax credit going to save the economy? Please.

You think Obama plans on stopping at just rolling back the Bush Tax Cuts for the top 5%? Oh no, he has bigger things in store.

Is there something magical that happens between the top marginal tax rate going from 35% to 39% that goes from FREE MARKET CAPITALISM to SOCIALISM? If 'wealth distribution' is so horrible, why the hell are you voting for McCain and not for some third party candidate who's advocating a flat tax? Republican talking points make no sense.

Odd, the upper class did just fine under similar levels of taxation under Clinton.... You know, when the economy was prospering?

@boomshak

So why does Warren Buffett support Obama then boom? Has Warren been seduced by Obama's inner communist?

You seem to be making assumptions about things that you can't possibly know. You should probably stop while you are ahead because it looks like your inner Freeptard is showing.

Do we need to get you a tinfoil hat boomtard?

Epic FAIL!!!

@OneAngryDwarf:

Lol, Warren Buffet is a HUGE lib and always has been. You think that just because someone is wealthy they cannot be socialists or even communists for that matter?

God you are naive.

McCain is only up by 5 in Arizona according to Rasmussen. LOL

boomshak McCain up FIVE per RAS in AZ. What does this tell you OVERALL? ROFL

Patrick google "phil berg lawsuit against obama 10/26/08".

It is true that most people can't pay their own salaries, but businesses can't buy their own products either--they need consumers for that. And falling real incomes combined with the limits of personal borrowing have created a situation in which consumption is going to fall off the optimal trend unless something changes. So, we need to find ways to increase real incomes, and that is for the sake of the entire economy, both business employees and business owners alike.

From Bookshak:
"P.S., I'm still waiting for an explanation from an Obama supporters as to how we "build the economy from the people up..."

I honestly do not see how that is feasible and "the people" cannot pay themselves salaries."

I'll give you one. The concept is that the economy can only be truly strong when the biggest demographics of people are the folks receving the fair tax cuts, etc.

LOL...Obama isn't implying that people will "pay themselves salaries." What he is saying is that the enonomy is driven by the MIDDLE CLASS and the WORKING CLASS....meaning that if they are not strong, the economy will always fail. That is what he means by "building the economy from the people up."

Do this for me, please, Boomshak:

Show me one time in American history when the economy has been consistently strong and the Middle Class and the Working Class have NOT been.

You won't find one.

Without a strong middle and working class, the economy ALWAYS struggles.

Trolls, trolls, trolls, ain't nothing like them in the whole wide world.

i do expect most of the trackers to tighten but unless obama falls below 50 in Rasmussen hes not likely going to lose.
the 5 point lead for mccain in his home state is bad news he will undoubtedly win it though.

@boomstump

That is the best you've got. Warren Buffett is a lib? I thought you were talking about communism here? Which is it? I'm confused boompuke you keep throwing labels around but it doesn't sound like you know what they mean. Do you? Can you tell me the difference between a liberal, a socialist and a communist?

Might make for a pretty good "three guys walk into a bar joke" but its pretty telling that you don't seem to know the difference between the three.

So is Warren Buffett the biggest capitalist in the world a Liberal? A Socialist? or a Communist? Which one is it boomflopsweat?

@boomshak

i'm in the engineering business. not the educate the retarded business. if you couldn't understand what i said after i put it in the most basic of terms...then you will never understand it. look to the clinton years. then compare them to the bush years. there is your proof that democratic tax cuts work better than republican tax cuts. but i do love how you finally just admitted that obama will cut taxes for the middle class. you learn slowly but you do learn. i'm proud you finally.

South Imbreeding Angler: I googled in. Now goto: http://fightthesmears.com/articles/5/birthcertificate?source=source=sem-pm-fts-bc-search-us&gclid=CPvPh-Tlx5YCFQykagodZj8Fyg

Who am I going to trust more with the economy: The guy advised by people like Paul Volcker and Warren Buffet, or the guy advised by Carly Fiorina and Phil "Mental recession" Gramm. Hmmm.

Warren Buffet is a HUGE lib and always has been.

Right! When he advised Arnold 'the Terminator' as well :-)

@boomcolostomybag

I don't have all day to wait around here for your pithy retort. Can you please just find me an article by some Freeptard that makes no sense to any reasonable person and cut and paste it already?

Eh never mind... I've got to go fire someone, might as well start early.

Boomsmell = Epic FAIL!!!

Fromn Boomshak:
Lol, Warren Buffet is a HUGE lib and always has been. You think that just because someone is wealthy they cannot be socialists or even communists for that matter?

So now WARREN BUFFET is a Communist??

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!

Epic Fail, Boomshak....

has someone got a link for the page with all the early voting numbers?

Next he'll explain how Paul Volcker is a socialist perhaps?

@kc_in_MN:

"Can't wait for this election to be over.
My obsession with polls .."

Hey KC - you are not alone. i suspect most here have a similar obsession. my wife is not nearly as interested as i am, so we sit in the family room (me with laptop onboard)and kick around an idea or two when she's watching a recap of the daily soaps during early evening. as AAs our entire family is totally hooked on this election. even though we generally always vote dem, this one has an added dimension.

As a matter of fact, my daughter-in-law "declared" BO the winner back in June and made reservations for the entire family to go dc for the inagural. well, the hotel called last week and said they could not honor our reservation unless we planned to stay the entire week. guess the interest is growing up in dc and they have decided to go for the big bucks.

By the way, the broader picture is that you need a balance: of course you can't entirely eliminate the return to capital and have a growing economy, but nor can you entirely eliminate the return to labor and have a growing economy. Rather, optimal economic growth requires healthy returns to both capital and labor.

So what Obama, and in fact many other people, have suggested is basically just that the return to labor got too low recently, and that has ended up hurting the broader economy. In other words, the balance of returns between capital and labor swung too far from the ideal, and that ended up hurting everyone, labor and capital both.

@boomshak

I absolutely love it when Democrats try to justify themselves by relying on Republicans like Paul Volcker.

Warren Buffet - boomshak - i think unfortunately what my comrades are trying to tell you is that there is nothing to fear as Obama represents more of the same just with a different colour of lipstick.

didn't both these guys vote $750 bil to save the US financial institutions?

Didn't McCain and Obama vote 80% of the time the same in the Senate?

You can put blue lipstick on a pig but it still the same pig.

This gets more Orwellian every day!

Paul Volcker is a Democrat you idiot. And the rest is total BS, and you know it.

Rush is playing the Obama socialist clips right now. Thay means over 20 million are listening. Hannity is up after Rush.

I like very much what thoughtful just said even if i prefer blue lipstick than the red one.

The only people who take Rush seriously aren't going to vote for Obama in the first place moron. Ditto for Sean Hannity. And Hannity doesn't believe half of what he says anyway.

It's also on foxnews........good luck trying to keep this secret

James Carville Hints at Riots If Obama Loses Election
By P.J. Gladnick (Bio | Archive)
October 8, 2008 - 10:10 ET

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In last night's post-debate analysis on CNN's Anderson Cooper 360, James Carville proclaimed that Barack Obama will be the slam dunk winner of the election in November. However, he followed up by hinting at riots if Obama were to lose. Here is the transcript of the discussion. First David Gergen keeps bringing up the race factor as an excuse for a possible Obama loss (emphasis mine):

ANDERSON COOPER: But if you look at the CNN poll which Campbell Brown just told us about the short time ago, on the economy, Obama 59 percent and McCain 36 percent. David Gergen, do you agree with John King and James Carville that if those numbers continue it's basically game over?

DAVID GERGEN: I think it's too early to declare victory Anderson, because Barack Obama is black. And until we play out the issue of race in this country, I don't think we'll know and maybe unless -- late in the campaign.

COOPER: Do you think that despite the lead in the polls, people might change their minds once they're actually in the voting booth?

GERGEN: I'm not sure the polls are totally believable, I think there's -- there maybe built in. Over the years there's a study now that's come out of Stanford University and Associate Press along with Yahoo, saying that is -- that his blackness may cost him as much as six points

Rush is now playing Rev Wright unedited for everyone's plesure

Looks like Gergen was right

@boomshak

Please explain with detailed evidence and facts how Obama is a socialist and/or communist. Your argument should be based on how what he is proposing is similar to the economic philosophies associated with socialism and communism. Simply pointing out that he wants to make adjustments to our progressive income tax code is not evidence. And from what I've seen, that's all he's talking about. Is it really so radical to allow the Bush temporary tax cuts on the top 5% to expire in 2010 as scheduled? Seriously, explain how that is radical or socialist or communist. Because that's what Obama is proposing.

Charging higher tax rates to folks higher up the income ladder - ie, a progressive income tax - is not socialism and it is not communism. If it is, then we've been a socialist/communist nation since before WWI.

And simply saying, "don't believe what he's saying...he's going to go after more than the top 5%" won't cut it. That's not an argument - that's speculation based on nothing. And even if rates did rise for those below the top 5% - and Obama has said they will not - that's still not socialism/communism.

My guess is that if you were asked this single question on a test in an undergraduate level economics class, you'd fail. But then you'd blame it all on the liberal-elite university system, right?

SA

Sgt Jerry Wright is an American Hero.

Rush appears to be a racist for racists, his audience, much like you, they are committed to vote the other way.

So who cares!

I'll say it again there are a minimum of 5 times more ageists than racists in the US.

So some how I think the 2 cancel themselves out in this election and some in Obama's favor.

The other thing is that Americans are now used to Black or Exotic heros, and I don't mean it in any nasty range - Tiger Woods, Will Smith etc. Obama seems to be held in very high esteem by 60% of the American people.

Gergen & Carville are yesterday's men., are FOS and sometimes like the sound of their own voices too much.

You know, I would love to see how Gallup is coming up with his "traditional" vs "expanded" LV categories.

Today's poll shows O+5 on traditional and O+10 on expanded. I mean, hell, that is a HUGE difference. I had read that his 'expanded' model assumes 66% turnout (which is silly).

Who knows?

Rasmussen, Zogby and Gallup all now O+5 with some new bad news for Obama every day. Obama is in free-fall.

@Boomshak

Up above you say Obama is in big trouble. So let me ask, if you're trying to win the election, would you rather be in Obama's position or McCain's? Obama is leading at RCP's site by an average of 7.4 points on all national polls, leads in the electoral college by 306 to 157, and leads in every single toss-up state except Montana. I mean, if Obama is in big trouble, then what position is McCain in?

McCain strategy.

It looks like McCain is putting all his eggs into the following ploy: Win FL, OH, NC, MO, and PA. Unfortunately, this only adds up to 268. They are campaigning in NV, NM, and IA, either of which would bring home the bacon (NV being the most/only likely state), or the highly unlikely 1 EV from ME. Now, how could they win PA? Quite simple. Watch tomorrow's weather forecast. Should something similar happen next Tuesday, it could significantly hamper voters in the Philly area. That or a week-long world series hangover should the Phillies win. Sure, it's a long shot, but the alternative is winning VA and CO, in addition to the aforementioned states. I would paint the election a light shade of blue right now.

@boomshak

How do Gallup's likely voter models work?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111268/How-Gallups-likely-voter-models-work.aspx

If you're interested in how Virginia has voted by district historically, take a look at this link:

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=VA

What's interesting is that in those districts where there's an election this year and that have historically always gone Republican, some inroads by Dems have been made. The 11th is completely swapped over Democratic (not surprising really) and while it's HIGHLY doubtful the Democratic candidates can pull it off in the 1st and 10th, the gap in the 5th has closed by an astonishing amount, and the 2nd is now considered a lean red only. It's just not heard of in the 5th, I can tell you that. We live in the area north of I64 of the 5th district, which votes overwhelmingly democratic while the rest of the district is staunchly conservative. Our Dem. candidate has narrowed the gap in a way that nobody could have imagined just 3 months ago. (You can imagine a good portion of our area would dearly love some redistricting).

Anyway, I think it all speaks volumes about this country's run-of-the-mill moderate conservatives being flat fed up with the Republican status quo.

The only thing that's ever "trickled down" during recent republican administrations (Let's not forget Regan took us from the largest lender nation to the largest debtor nation in the world) is an unprecedented national debt, right into the future of every MC tax payer for the next 4 generations.

Obama/Biden and a Democratic House are our only hope out of this insanity. Wanna help? We could sure use you in VA's 2nd and 5th districts.

Boom,

Why is 66% crazy? Turnout in 2004 was 60.7%.

boomshat,

I'll ask again:

Can you give us the route to 270 Electoral College votes that McLameBrain has?

What states will he win, those states adding up to 270 EC votes?

Name them, or STFU.

And if you include Pennsylvania in that route to 270, tell us how he's going to win the state, when the composite polling on Pollster.com currently shows him down by 12.7 points in Pennsylvania, and has shown him down by double digits every day for several consecutive weeks.

Obama's route:

'Kerry states' (without NH, the weakest of the 'Kerry state'), plus Iowa, plus Virginia gives him 268. Add ANY state, and he's over 270. Add just New Hampshire, and he's at 272. Add just New Mexico, and he's at 273. Add just Colorado and he's at 277. Add just North Carolina and he's at 283. Add just Ohio and he's at 288. Add just Florida and he's at 289. And there are several more states where he's in the lead to some extent.

If Obama wins the 'Kerry states', including NH, he needs just Iowa and Virginia, or Iowa and New Mexico plus one more state, or Iowa and North Carolina, or Iowa and Ohio, or Iowa and Florida, or ..., or ..., or ..., etc., etc., etc.

Sorry, boomshat. McLameBrain will have to draw four cards to a Royal Flush to have the remotest chance of sweeping all the states he needs to win the 270 EC votes to win this election.

Again, show us the route, or STFU.

To Mike,

McCain is trying to win PA to go along with FL, OH, MO, NC, and VA. The campaign has 5 stops scheduled this week in the keystone state. That is obviously his strategy. I ma not saying that it will work though.

7-day Average of Rasmussen 3-Day National Tracking Polls, 10/21-27
(Bush/Kerry from 10/19-25, 2004 in parenthesis)

Obama 51.4 (48.1)
McCain 45.0 (49.3)

Obama +6.4% (Bush +1.2%)

Obama is over performing Kerry's numbers by 3.3 points, while McCain is under performing Bush's numbers by 4.3 points. That results in a 7.6 point net swing in the favor of Obama.