10/27-29, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Obama 51, McCain 46
A McCain surge!! lol
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:23 AM
Obama's lead will only continue to grow through the weekend. His ad last night and the appearance with Bill Clinton closed the sale big time. I would put money on Obama outperforming the final RCP average, as I truly believe the polling is undersampling actual voters. My 2 cents.
I really hope Obama makes a stop in AZ during his swing out west in the next few days. That would be the dagger right through the heart!
History in 5 days, my friends!
Landslide Baby Landslide
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:34 AM
Well, maybe McCain will win over some voters with *his* 30-minute primetime buy on all the major TV channels. Oh, wait...
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:35 AM
The fat lady is singing.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:36 AM
Last night, Obama KO'd mccain. The infomercial just destroyed mccain and his hate-mongers.
Americans will choose Hope over Fear.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:37 AM
Oh, oh; Joe appears to be a no-show. I'm watching McCain on CNN on the stump in OH. He's doing his Joe the Plumber thing when he calls out, Joe is with us here today. He calls out to him and asks him to identify his location. Oops, no Joe there!!
Uh-oh, sounds like Joe's gone rogue!
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:39 AM
You know your campaign is tanking when your most popular surrogate is literally a random guy off the street.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:40 AM
We had been spoiled with the consistency in this poll, but over the last few days it appears we had both a period when an unusually good day for Obama was in the averages and a period when an unusually bad day for Obama was in the averages.
And we might see that happen again in the final few days.
Maybe Joe and Sarah, seeing the writing on the wall, have gone off . . . .
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:41 AM
McCain needs to gain more than a point a day till election day just to have a 50/50 chance. Losing 2 points here really, really hurts. him.
I think the only way Obama loses is if his supports get complacent.
In other words...
Always be closing.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:42 AM
Is there a link to the story about the Joe the Plumber no show? That's too funny.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:44 AM
Joe the Non-Plumber is busy recording his new record and writing his memoir.
I love how McPalin is now pushing Obama for 2012... desperate change in tactics each day.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:45 AM
FACT - McCain is not within 2 in ANY national tracker. In order to even have a chance at reversing the electoral college he has to be within 2. With the WORST case scenerio right now being 3 with about 10 other polls showing a MUCH higher advantage time is about out. 3 business days!
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:46 AM
I think Obama should make one more stop in PA on monday. Try to squeeze it in there to eliminate any doubt. Some things that worry me are VA and PA because they dont have early voting, I really hope they keep the polls open later in VA. CO because of all the voter purges. And of course I really hope new and lapsed voters will get out there and vote. Call me nervous but I can still remember when this was almost impossible.
Va does have early voting. I've been canvassing there. 15% of Fairfax, biggest county had voted as of the 29th.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:48 AM
Joe the No-Show is not a story McCain needs right now.
Boom in despair in first post this morning told us all to wait for Rasmussen (O'Reilly had held out hope, after all). So here it is, boom.
What now, genius? Should we wait for Gallup?
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:49 AM
Joe the Plumber is registered to vote with a miss-spelled last name due to clerical error. Doesn't that mean that the Repub Party should sue to not allow him to vote due to the miss-match?
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:50 AM
Rasmussen 2008 vs. Rasmussen 2004.
7-Day Average of Rasmussen 3-Day Tracking Polls, 10/24-30 (Bush/Kerry from 10/22-28, 2004 in parenthesis)
Obama 51.3 (48.3)
McCain 45.4 (49.3)
Obama +5.9 (Bush +1.0)
Obama is over performing Kerry's numbers by 3.0 points, while McCain is under performing Bush's numbers by 3.9 points.
So has everybody cancelled their subscriptions to that socialist rag, The Economist, yet? Along with the Financial Times, of course.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:52 AM
Great article on the new Selzer poll showing O up 1 in Indiana. It's gonna be fun!
Im listening live to good ol Lady Sarah and man she is really full of it. TRhe people there dont scream "McCain" . They only scream "Sarah" and she is cleary enjoying it for "herself" not as for "him" .-- you know that grumpy old guy with the failed campaing. She is running for 2012 right NOW.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:55 AM
Where are all the trolls today? Hmmm They always do this in the face of a surge!:)
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:57 AM
Joe "the plumber" is planning a congressional run. He can't be seen with McCain.
Posted on October 30, 2008 10:58 AM
I guess boomshak was a no-show at Obama's rally here in Raleigh yesterday. I thought boomshak said a couple of weeks ago that he had a couple of devastating questions that he was going to ask Obama that would end Obama's political career.
Maybe he and Joe the Plumber are off somewhere plotting a fake terrorist attack against the U.S.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:00 AM
Joe the Plumber is so disgusting. Dude PAY YOUR TAXES before you go talking about doing the right thing and making your own way. And quit lying about the business that you "might buy." I doubt he has the down payment or credit to BUY any business.
"Among the 19% of respondents who have already voted, Obama leads 55-36%." - Hotline poll from today.
I just listened to Rasmussen on FoxNews. Of course I could be wrong, but it seems like Rasmussen REALLY REALLY REALLY wants Obama to win, just to hear him talk.
Even yesterday when he had Obama up +3 he said "this is probably just statistical noise". Over the years that is ALWAYS what he says right before he takes the numbers the other way.
We'll see, come election day, none of these guys want to be wrong.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:05 AM
+5% now less than a week to go.
Another unhappy morning for John McCain, it doesn't help that Sarah is throwing him uner a bus.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:07 AM
I guess boomshak was a no-show at Obama's rally here in Raleigh yesterday.
My IQ is over 100 so they wouldn't let me in.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:08 AM
you may wnat to review Mark Blumenthal's request to you on the GWU board. just a suggestion.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:11 AM
Rasmussen had a day that fell outside the norm for McCain. He knew it, and he knew that everything would fall back to normal, once that day fell off the chart.
That's exactly what happened.
Statistical noise. That's why there's a margin of error.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:12 AM
Hopefully a little rest last night enables you to keep that phony civility up for a bit, before you explode into that GOP venom. What are you suggesting that Rasmussen, whose advertising revenue and client list is dominated by GOP folks is going socialist? It's over, mon ami. Pack it up. Learn some manners. Enroll in anger management courses. Start a Palin in 2012 exploratory committee in your 'hood, and angle to get distribution rights to Joe the Faux Plumber's hit single, "Only in America."
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:13 AM
"My IQ is over 100 so they wouldn't let me in."
Really?? Look at this: http://www.hakubi.us/simplyamerican/data/capsi/2004election_by_iq.png
coincidence or correlation?
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:14 AM
I am sitting here, petting Larry the Landslide Lizard.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:15 AM
I guess Rassmussen being for Obama would be yet another conservative joining the long list of conservatives and/or Republicans that are endorsing Obama. Check out what Fukayama (founding father of the neocon movement) has to say:
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:17 AM
Here is the state of the Battle Ground Race. Again, look at averages, don't sweat one poll. We are in GREAT shape. Let me put it this way. If McCain wins it would be the largest polling collapse in US History and turn the pundit and polling world upsidedown. I doubt that will happen.
Florida 48.6 45.1 Obama +3.5
North Carolina 49.0 46.8 Obama +2.2
Virginia 51.0 43.4 Obama +7.6
Ohio 49.4 43.8 Obama +5.6
Missouri 48.0 47.8 Obama +0.2
Colorado 51.5 44.3 Obama +7.2
Nevada 50.4 43.0 Obama +7.4
New Mexico (5) 50.3 43.0 Obama +7.3
Pennsylvania (21) 52.3 42.8 Obama +9.5
Iowa (7) 52.2 40.8 Obama +11.4
New Hampshire (4) 52.6 40.2 Obama +12.4
NORTH DAKOTA 43.0 44.6 Obama +1.6 (OCT)
Indiana (11) 45.8 47.3 McCain +1.5
Montana (3) 44.4 47.8 McCain +3.4
Georgia (15) 45.8 50.0 McCain +4.2
Arizona (10) 44.2 49.4 McCain +5.2
RCP Electoral Count 311 142 Obama +169
No Toss Up States 364 174 Obama +190
How could ANYONE not, at least, be happy with the way this campaign has gone with 3 business days to go? Relax folks:)
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:26 AM
That chart is just amazing. Did you notice that the red states with the highest average IQ (VA, CO, IA, NV, etc) are states that are currently leaning toward Obama this year? So great...
This entire election you have said "Rass is the only pollster I trust", now because you don't agree with his results, he wants Obama to win?
Here is Nate Silver's analysis of all the trackers:
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:27 AM
More good news but polls don't win elections, votes do!!!
This is not a game. This is serious stuff. Boom, you really need to take it easy with the anger. You only have your people to blame for this debacle. Bush, Cheney, McCain, Palin, they are the ones that have taken this country down and McCain/Palin failed to convince Independents like me why he would be any different.
Hope, my friend, is a wonderful thing...
By the way, AZ would be blue if McCain was not from there.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:28 AM
@decided and incumbent
As much as I would like to believe the IQ thing, it's a hoax... It's on snopes, but the site isn't loading for me right now. This guy is right-leaning, but his analysis of the hoax is spot-on http://www.isteve.com/iqhoax.htm.
There is a strong correlation with education level, however.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:31 AM
VA doesn't have "early" voting but has been encoraging voters to vote early absentee (which one can do in person in his/her home county) due to expected heavy turn-out on 11/4.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:16 PM
VA does NOT have the same kind of early voting as Florida and the other states and/or counties within states that do. Any canvassing for "early votes" is turning up valid absentee votes only. You MUST have a valid excuse to either vote by absentee ballot or appear in person prior to election day. The guidelines for what those excuses are are VERY stringent. See here:
If you want to know if there IS early voting in your area, all you have to do is type in your zipcode at this site:
My partner and I will be lining up at the poll before 6 a.m. and have committed to line-sitting in the poorer areas that are notorious for waits of 5 hours or longer.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:26 PM
The Daily Show last night was brilliant, even before Obama came on. "Goin' Rogue" with Palin and Joe the Plumber. That was awesome.
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